Author Topic: Luo Elite & Counties in Nyanza- Mismanaged & Broke  (Read 4604 times)

Offline veritas

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Luo Elite & Counties in Nyanza- Mismanaged & Broke
« on: January 06, 2017, 02:10:09 PM »
Interesting debate on Jukwaa, on the problems with the Luo elite & the potential causes for tribes jumping ship from CORD to Jubilee. How can other tribes relate ? How can Kikuyus and other tribes join CORD if there's no policy in welcoming them? Better yet, how can anyone join CORD if CORD counties mismanage funds and go broke at exorbitant rates compared to Kikuyu led counties.

http://jukwaa.proboards.com/thread/9281/vermin-elite-retarded-counties-nyanza

Quote
KAKA ANYWOLA,

RE: OUR VERMIN LUO ELITE AND THE RETARDED COUNTIES OF NYANZA!

A pestilence of administrative mediocrity infests the Empire at large. But this sequel is a Luo domestic, and therefore 'our' Kavirondo Homeland counties will be the absolute focus of my heart and mind.

And I will, be ferocious at it, ancestors willing.

With bitter heart I traverse the pathways of my Nyanza,
A sea of disconsolate souls no fairy tale could camouflage!

But for the Empire state of Kenya, I will accept the mitigating circumstances as eloquently enumerated by the P-R department of the High Command of the caucus of their excellencies the governors below. Namely: The World Bank ''audit' report is not comprehensive, is not conclusive, is hodge-podge it is biased and inaccurate. It is essentially trash.

These, uncannily, were the same words used by the then Government spokesman Dr. Alfred Mutua, when he stipulated the government's official reaction to the publication of the Kroll report.
Kenya dismisses Moi leak

By The Gazette (Montreal)September 1, 2007

The Kenyan government yesterday dismissed as a "political gimmick" the leak of a 2004 report accusing former president Daniel arap Moi and his inner circle of stealing $2 billion of state money.
The government had asked Kroll investigators to help find assets stolen and hidden abroad during the Moi years. But Mutua said the report, submitted in 2004, was incomplete.

"The report was very inconclusive. It can't stand up in a court of law," he said
Mutua's words are good enough for me as a Kenyan, I swallow them like ananas from heaven. However, as a Luo, one who has never lived much in Nairobi and internalised mediocrity, I go with Okot P'Bitek waxing poetic on the words of a neo-colonial politician: not even a parrot bothers repeat. So I will look at Luoland with the tenacity of n'gat mosewuotho moseneno bende. That is, a Lilliputian who has seen Gullivers out there, and sized the score.

Let Wanjiku sleep at ease. Their Majesty's the governors of Kenya have done a tremendous job under extraordinary odds. Kuddos. But it is an ease in sleep I wont have Luoland join, Alas! on the contrary, I will gospelise the World Bank report. I will conclude Kavirondo has vermin governors running shameful administrations. An abomination. For Luoland. (could be a blessing for Kenya you never know! ones pain being anothers joy so they say sometimes!)

Anyway


Governors led by their council chairman Isaac Ruto (seated second right) at a past function in Nairobi. Governors have dismissed a World Bank report that ranked counties in terms of their budgetary allocations to development as biased and inaccurate. FILE PHOTO | BILLY MUTAI | NATION MEDIA GROUP

Our vermin Luo Elite and the Retarded counties of Nyanza!

With bitter heart I traverse the pathways of my Nyanza;
A sea of disconsolate souls no fairy tale could camouflage,
wafts into vision, like the stench of a rotten grave exhumed.

The monies disbursed by the state in operation pesa mashinani
The tenderpreneurs of my Nyanza channel toward mashimoni
The industries like sugar which though struggling could thrive
The managerial vermin of my Nyanza collude to run aground
The novel universities which could initiate a Luo renaissance
The intellectual bureaucracy of my Nyanza dilute unto fakes.
The culture of democracy and free choice so hard fought for
The political leadership disavow and re-institute the rotten era

Hmmm (paraphrasing Mao Tse Tung now)
Cold and foreboding grit; with a jaundice eye,
Dry from shedding the tears of a million hearts
Pregnant with the insane rage of a vengeance demon,
The pathways of Nyanza I traverse with the gospel of the Furiae.

Beware, the land yearns for your blood, ye thieves!
Prepare, ye beasts that must yield the crimson quench.
With ruthless malice I chant your funeral dirges in advance!
The happiest songs our land shall sing in your bloody send off!
A report by the World Bank, Spending More or Spending Smart?, released on Wednesday paints a disturbing picture of development prospects in the majority of counties that are spending billions on recurrent expenditures, not infrastructure, capacity-building and development projects. -

See more at: www.the-star.co.ke/news/let-us-discuss-governors-spending-mps#sthash.Ri5AFuWR.dpufhttp://jukwaa.proboards.com/thread/9281/vermin-elite-retarded-counties-nyanza#ixzz4UyiB2vfD


Offline veritas

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Re: Luo Elite & Counties in Nyanza- Mismanaged & Broke
« Reply #1 on: January 06, 2017, 02:15:18 PM »
When CORD led counties can manage & audit their funds with an excellence at par with Jubilee led counties, then that can break tribal stereotypes and tip the balance of power in favor of CORD leading Kenya. That's something that can swerve Kikuyu voters, Indian investors, foreign investors and so forth to have confidence in a CORD presidency.

Offline Omollo

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Re: Luo Elite & Counties in Nyanza- Mismanaged & Broke
« Reply #2 on: January 06, 2017, 02:29:50 PM »
If only this were true.

When CORD led counties can manage & audit their funds with an excellence at par with Jubilee led counties, then that can break tribal stereotypes and tip the balance of power in favor of CORD leading Kenya. That's something that can swerve Kikuyu voters, Indian investors, foreign investors and so forth to have confidence in a CORD presidency.
... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

Offline veritas

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Re: Luo Elite & Counties in Nyanza- Mismanaged & Broke
« Reply #3 on: January 06, 2017, 03:50:13 PM »
It's been a concern in ODM for years. I'm sure you're aware of this & the fact ODM have tried initiatives like running business training seminars to auditing expenditures, debt management & purging looters. CORD led counties are more susceptible to mismanagement hence the large staff turnover compared to Jubilee run counties. It doesn't appeal to voters and investors. It's an ongoing crisis and really the crux of why CORD isn't gaining momentum despite the inspirational ideologies and commitment to accountability. It's also a conversation I've had with Kikuyu voters on the reason why they don't support CORD policies. Aside from countless ideas and words, there isn't much there to show in the books that CORD can run a country. Believe you me I'm not a Jubilee supporter, but those tyrants have a firmer grip on having their house in order.

Offline Omollo

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Re: Luo Elite & Counties in Nyanza- Mismanaged & Broke
« Reply #4 on: January 06, 2017, 04:01:23 PM »
Two things I can say about that:

1. All county governments have experienced massive wastage of funds with most blamed on corruption
2. CORD led counties have lost comparatively less that JP led counties
3. The Pro Jubilee media has been fast and more determined to persecute CORD counties (with the exception of those CORD counties like Migori and Machakos where the governors joined Jubilee)

The leading county in wastage of public funds is Nairobi. However since beneficiaries predominantly come from the Ruling Tribe, it has been decided not to publicize the matter in event it further dents the image of Jubilee. Note that the governor allied himself with JP at the beginning of his tenure and has only tried to make amends and rejoin CORD as the elections loom.

It is possible to prove one side has stolen more than the other. However I would find it a worthless pursuit considering all theft of public funds is harmful to citizens and at worst leads to mass deaths. Therefore I condemn "our thieves" as well as "their thieves" in equal measure.

It's been a concern in ODM for years. I'm sure you're aware of this & the fact ODM have tried initiatives like running business training seminars to auditing expenditures, debt management & purging looters. CORD led counties are more susceptible to mismanagement hence the large staff turnover compared to Jubilee run counties. It doesn't appeal to voters and investors. It's an ongoing crisis and really the crux of why CORD isn't gaining momentum despite the inspirational ideologies and commitment to accountability. It's also a conversation I've had with Kikuyu voters on the reason why they don't support CORD policies. Aside from countless ideas and words, there isn't much there to show in the books that CORD can run a country.
... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

Offline Kichwa

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Re: Luo Elite & Counties in Nyanza- Mismanaged & Broke
« Reply #5 on: January 06, 2017, 05:04:33 PM »
There is no need to tribalize Corruption and mismanagement in Kenya anymore because it is country wide. If we use the dollar amount then what is stolen at the counties is only a fraction of what they steal at the national level.  My recent trip to Kenya leaves no doubt in my mind that devolution is working.  The evidence is overwhelming and while folks complain about corruption and mismanagement, No One, and I mean NO one, want to go back to the days when PC's and DC's handled the peoples money.  Fighting corruption must be done by the government institutions and not left to political parties.  The devolution ministry and the auditor general must come up with a system to track the expenditures, then the EACC,  the public prosecutors office and the court  must work to investigate, prosecute and send people to jail.  The only way you are going to stop corruption in Kenya is when there are consequences.  Corruption in Kenya can be drastically reduced if the people of Kenya elect a national government that is willing to fight corruption.  The first order of duty is to eliminate corruption at the presidential and cabinet level.  This will take care of almost 1/4 of all corruption and can be done very quickly.  The second level is at the ministries and the departments- this will take a little longer  and will require arrests, convictions and people going to jail and having their bank accounts closed, properties turned over to the government and sold.  Political parties out of government do not have the powers to do this and therefore CORD will be just as corrupt as any other political party in Kenya until the leadership at the top and the institutions start working.
"I have done my job and I will not change anything dead or a live" Malonza

Offline veritas

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Re: Luo Elite & Counties in Nyanza- Mismanaged & Broke
« Reply #6 on: January 06, 2017, 05:07:37 PM »
Two things I can say about that:

1. All county governments have experienced massive wastage of funds with most blamed on corruption
2. CORD led counties have lost comparatively less that JP led counties
3. The Pro Jubilee media has been fast and more determined to persecute CORD counties (with the exception of those CORD counties like Migori and Machakos where the governors joined Jubilee)

The leading county in wastage of public funds is Nairobi. However since beneficiaries predominantly come from the Ruling Tribe, it has been decided not to publicize the matter in event it further dents the image of Jubilee. Note that the governor allied himself with JP at the beginning of his tenure and has only tried to make amends and rejoin CORD as the elections loom.

It is possible to prove one side has stolen more than the other. However I would find it a worthless pursuit considering all theft of public funds is harmful to citizens and at worst leads to mass deaths. Therefore I condemn "our thieves" as well as "their thieves" in equal measure.

It's been a concern in ODM for years. I'm sure you're aware of this & the fact ODM have tried initiatives like running business training seminars to auditing expenditures, debt management & purging looters. CORD led counties are more susceptible to mismanagement hence the large staff turnover compared to Jubilee run counties. It doesn't appeal to voters and investors. It's an ongoing crisis and really the crux of why CORD isn't gaining momentum despite the inspirational ideologies and commitment to accountability. It's also a conversation I've had with Kikuyu voters on the reason why they don't support CORD policies. Aside from countless ideas and words, there isn't much there to show in the books that CORD can run a country.

1. Some counties have done well- Jubilee.
2. Which audit report was that?
3. The media don't fund counties.


Ababu Namwamba, Busia, ODM

Let's go through each county. Starting with Ababu, member for Busia, who was berated by ODM for looting, mismanagement, no business acumen & sleeping with underage girls, backstabbed ODM:



Unexplained deficit of KSh 714 592 289 that's 65% of funds missing or unaccounted. There's a few audit reports, this one is from the auditor general ending 30th June 2015. http://docdro.id/GAZg6x5

Offline veritas

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Re: Luo Elite & Counties in Nyanza- Mismanaged & Broke
« Reply #7 on: January 06, 2017, 05:25:08 PM »


Ahmed Ibrahi, Garissa, ODM

In 2014 debt US$2217735.62 forwarded to 2015 and that's just cash debt. US$1648891.95 unaccounted. In Australia even when $10 grand govt funds are unaccounted it leads to a federal investigation - fines and potential jail time.



Auditor general 2014 Garissa report: http://www.filedropper.com/garissafs

Offline Kichwa

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Re: Luo Elite & Counties in Nyanza- Mismanaged & Broke
« Reply #8 on: January 06, 2017, 05:55:06 PM »
What is the point that you are trying to make? If your point is that ODM  counties are more mismanaged, and corrupt than jubilee then you need more solid empirical evidence referencing all counties then we can make our own conclusions. Let us stipulate that the county governments are corrupt and mismanaged-some more than others-but this is not based on political parties or tribes as you are trying to insinuate with anecdotal evidence.

Devolution has only been around for 4 years and the resources allocated for devolution is not going to overcome fifty years of corruption and politically targeted marginalization of certain parts of this country. A big chunk of the county government budget  goes to salaries inherited from employees of the former national government that must be paid.  My County government has done some tangible development programs especially in local roads, improvement of schools, health care and water  that have brought changes that were not possible under the hostile national government. There is clearly corruption and mismanagement but these can be cured through experience and education in governance, having a good a transparent accounting system, a criminal justice system that works and an educated public that is ready to hold the elected officials accountable and vote them out if necessary.  I wish we had devolution fifty years ago.
"I have done my job and I will not change anything dead or a live" Malonza

Offline veritas

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Re: Luo Elite & Counties in Nyanza- Mismanaged & Broke
« Reply #9 on: January 06, 2017, 06:02:29 PM »

Abdi Hassan, Nairobi, TNA

Had more receipts than grants. Receipts show out of their OWN pockets CONTRIBUTED US$718060.39 (less than a million) down from 2014 US$1597558 - SAVING OF THEIR OWN POCKETS US$879497 - 50% reduction Typically what's expected in healthy expenditure.



https://cog.go.ke/images/stories/reports/Auditor-General-Audit%20Report-Financial%20Statements%20of%20CoG%20for%20Year%20ended%2030.06.2015.pdf

Offline veritas

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Re: Luo Elite & Counties in Nyanza- Mismanaged & Broke
« Reply #10 on: January 06, 2017, 06:22:42 PM »

Abongotum Asman, Baringo, URP

Underspent by 18% and underperformed.



2015 Auditor General report: http://docdro.id/Y2vsmc5

Offline MOON Ki

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Re: Luo Elite & Counties in Nyanza- Mismanaged & Broke
« Reply #11 on: January 06, 2017, 09:17:06 PM »
Political parties out of government do not have the powers to do this and therefore CORD will be just as corrupt as any other political party in Kenya until the leadership at the top and the institutions start working.

You are partially right.   But I believe that Veritas's point is that CORD is putting itself forward as better than Jubilee and worthy of replacement.   To that extent, perhaps it ought to do better than "The system is what it is, so don't expect us to be any better".  Is there any reason to believe that corrupt CORD politicians will, when they get into power and have the opportunity to be even more corrupt, suddenly decide to be good?

The reason I write "partially" above is that that people who are not corrupt are not that way just because they fear being caught and getting punished; there is also an element of individual, moral choices.  When I look at corrupt practices in my "home-home" area, I am never concerned about the poor institutions and national government above. I only care about the thief I can see, and I imagine other locals are no different.  If the governor of the county is corrupt, he takes the heat directly; we don't say "ah well, it's the system".   Etc. Etc. Etc.  That is as it should be with devolution: no need to place all the thievery in Nairobi when it is right under one's nose.   And one of the best ways to convince people that one is ready for the big leagues is to deliver in the small leagues.

There is nothing to stop the leadership of CORD working with other politicians to show that CORD can achieve something against corruption, by showing that they can run their little fiefdoms better than they currently do.   Of course, they don't have to do that, and, because they do not have certain powers, they might not fully succeed, but it would send a powerful message and be more convincing to the electorate.      Raila has, for example, done an excellent job in highlighting corruption in the Jubilee government; it is pity that he has not brought the same energy to his backyard.
MOON Ki  is  Muli Otieno Otiende Njoroge arap Kiprotich
Your True Friend, Brother,  and  Compatriot.

Offline Kichwa

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Re: Luo Elite & Counties in Nyanza- Mismanaged & Broke
« Reply #12 on: January 06, 2017, 09:47:58 PM »
My point is that when it comes to corruption we cannot rely on "good people'.  The culture of corruption has permeated Kenya to the point that there is no tribe, political party, or gender that can be trusted NOT to be corrupt solely based on their own moral compass. It is true that there are such people but they are too few and without strong institutions, these people are easily overwhelmed by bad people.   The reason why I favor CORD is not because they are less corrupt but because we need change and they are more likely to change the system than the people entrenched in power.  All the good things that we now enjoy in Kenya came from the liberation struggle and the progressive left, whether it is the presidential term limits, free press, end of political detentions, multiparty, or devolution all now enshrined in the new Katiba. It is my  believe that  CORD/ODM, is more likely to start Kenya along that long journey of CHANGE than Jubilee.   I know is that if Jubilee stays in power, there will be no change for the next five years and this will only strengthen  Ruto to do the same 2022 and beyond.  If we continue this route, sooner or than later this country will burn.

Political parties out of government do not have the powers to do this and therefore CORD will be just as corrupt as any other political party in Kenya until the leadership at the top and the institutions start working.

You are partially right.   But I believe that Veritas's point is that CORD is putting itself forward as better than Jubilee and worthy of replacement.   To that extent, perhaps it ought to do better than "The system is what it is, so don't expect us to be any better".  Is there any reason to believe that corrupt CORD politicians will, when they get into power and have the opportunity to be even more corrupt, suddenly decide to be good?

The reason I write "partially" above is that that people who are not corrupt are not that way just because they fear being caught and getting punished; there is also an element of individual, moral choices.  When I look at corrupt practices in my "home-home" area, I am never concerned about the poor institutions and national government above. I only care about the thief I can see, and I imagine other locals are no different.   That is as it should be with devolution: no need to place all the thievery in Nairobi when it is right under one's nose.    And one of the best ways to convince people that one is ready for the big leagues is to deliver in the small leagues.

There is nothing to stop the leadership of CORD working with other politicians to show that CORD can achieve something against corruption, by showing that they can run their little fiefdoms better than they currently do.   Of course, they don't have to do that, and, because they do not have certain powers, they might not fully succeed, but it would send a powerful message and be more convincing to the electorate.      Raila has, for example, done an excellent job in highlighting corruption in the Jubilee government; it is pity that he has not brought the same energy to his backyard.
"I have done my job and I will not change anything dead or a live" Malonza

Offline Georgesoros

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Re: Luo Elite & Counties in Nyanza- Mismanaged & Broke
« Reply #13 on: January 06, 2017, 09:54:33 PM »
Its institutional.

My point is that when it comes to corruption we cannot rely on "good people'.  The culture of corruption has permeated in Kenya to the point that there is no tribe, political party, or gender that can be trusted not to be corrupt solely based on their own moral compass. There are such people but they are too few.  Corruption is Kenya must be fought with tough laws, technology, accountability, competence, and above all the end of impunity.  The reason why I favor CORD is not because they are less corrupt but because we need change and they are more likely to change the system than the people entrenched in power.  All the good things that we now enjoy in Kenya came from the liberation group, whether it is the presidential term limits, free press, end of political detentions, multiparty, or devolution all now enshrined in the new Katiba.  It is the changes that CORD/ODM is more likely to bring to government that I have hope in and not individuals.  All I know is that if Jubilee stays in power and Ruto comes in 2022 then nothing will change and sooner or later this country will burn.

Political parties out of government do not have the powers to do this and therefore CORD will be just as corrupt as any other political party in Kenya until the leadership at the top and the institutions start working.

You are partially right.   But I believe that Veritas's point is that CORD is putting itself forward as better than Jubilee and worthy of replacement.   To that extent, perhaps it ought to do better than "The system is what it is, so don't expect us to be any better".  Is there any reason to believe that corrupt CORD politicians will, when they get into power and have the opportunity to be even more corrupt, suddenly decide to be good?

The reason I write "partially" above is that that people who are not corrupt are not that way just because they fear being caught and getting punished; there is also an element of individual, moral choices.  When I look at corrupt practices in my "home-home" area, I am never concerned about the poor institutions and national government above. I only care about the thief I can see, and I imagine other locals are no different.   That is as it should be with devolution: no need to place all the thievery in Nairobi when it is right under one's nose.    And one of the best ways to convince people that one is ready for the big leagues is to deliver in the small leagues.

There is nothing to stop the leadership of CORD working with other politicians to show that CORD can achieve something against corruption, by showing that they can run their little fiefdoms better than they currently do.   Of course, they don't have to do that, and, because they do not have certain powers, they might not fully succeed, but it would send a powerful message and be more convincing to the electorate.      Raila has, for example, done an excellent job in highlighting corruption in the Jubilee government; it is pity that he has not brought the same energy to his backyard.

Offline MOON Ki

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Re: Luo Elite & Counties in Nyanza- Mismanaged & Broke
« Reply #14 on: January 06, 2017, 10:56:42 PM »
My point is that when it comes to corruption we cannot rely on "good people'.  The culture of corruption has permeated Kenya to the point that there is no tribe, political party, or gender that can be trusted NOT to be corrupt solely based on their own moral compass. It is true that there are such people but they are too few and without strong institutions, these people are easily overwhelmed by bad people. 

Note that I neither stated nor implied a sole reliance on moral goodness.    That said, "good people" are needed, and they need to be put into place, e.g. by being voted into power, being appointed, etc.     Strong institutions do not develop on their own; they first need the right sort of leadership.  In fact, I would say that it is impossible to accomplish positive change, or anything positive at all, without "good people".  (See my NOTE below.)

You correctly note that

Quote
All the good things that we now enjoy in Kenya came from the liberation struggle and the progressive left, whether it is the presidential term limits, free press, end of political detentions, multiparty, or devolution all now enshrined in the new Katiba.

Some of the people who led that struggle might have been in it just for the power, but I believe there was also much more: a very strong sense of right vs. wrong and what would benefit the country---"goodness", if you will.   In fact, I would say that many those "good things" came about because some "good people" had the courage and strength to act on their core beliefs.  Moreover, the nation had thoroughly been kicked in the teeth by a "bad  guy" and was ready to accommodate anyone even slightly different.

If, say, Raila is to be elected president, people will have to be convinced that he is a "good guy"---that he will not help himself and his friend to the national treasury, abuse institutions, stomp on people's rights, etc.  I certainly can't see him getting very far on the basis that "I might not be a good guy, but when it comes to corruption we cannot rely on good people'".

NOTE: As a matter of interpretation, I should point out that I believe in "practical ethics"---"goodness" and "badness" to be judged by actions, not words or the "unknowables" in people's hearts and minds and whatever. 

Quote

The reason why I favor CORD is not because they are less corrupt but because we need change and they are more likely to change the system than the people entrenched in power. 

To my mind, the top two things that prevent Kenya from being what it could be are corruption and tribalism.   Of these, both the public and the opposition seem to get more worked up about corruption.  If CORD cannot be "favoured" on that score---and, indeed, you note that "CORD will be just as corrupt as any other political party"---then: (a) which parts of the system does it propose to change, and (b) why are those parts more critical than the No. 1 Evil?

More generally, just what is it that CORD would change if it got into power?  Why, how, and when?   

Quote
If we continue this route, sooner or than later this country will burn.

That's coming, but it will take a while.   As the Moi years showed, Kenyans have a great capacity to sock up punishment.
MOON Ki  is  Muli Otieno Otiende Njoroge arap Kiprotich
Your True Friend, Brother,  and  Compatriot.

Offline Kichwa

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Re: Luo Elite & Counties in Nyanza- Mismanaged & Broke
« Reply #15 on: January 06, 2017, 11:24:15 PM »
I completely agree that good people are completely critical to change and never intended to imply otherwise.  I further agree that corruption and tribalism are our major twin problems, and they work together.  I do not think the problem will be eliminated overnight by any of the two major political parties but we need a start.  While I have no illusion that CORD will less corrupt, I believe that tribalism will be lessened under CORD than Jubilee because of the tribal make up. CORD needs to cast a very wide tribal net to win while Jubilee only needs two tribes plus rigging and they are home free.  They already have 2 Million electronic votes that they control.  That's a lot of assured votes.  Jubilee therefore needs tribalism to keep them in power while CORD has to denounce tribalism to win.  CORD therefore is more likely to embrace and strengthen the institutions that fight corruption.  Jubilee on the other hand has no incentive to strengthen these institutions to fight corruption because this will only harm their ardent supporters and corruption is what they use to reward their supporters and to consolidate their rabid tribal following. 
"I have done my job and I will not change anything dead or a live" Malonza

Offline MOON Ki

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Re: Luo Elite & Counties in Nyanza- Mismanaged & Broke
« Reply #16 on: January 07, 2017, 12:36:39 AM »
. CORD needs to cast a very wide tribal net to win while Jubilee only needs two tribes plus rigging and they are home free.  They already have 2 Million electronic votes that they control.  That's a lot of assured votes. 

That's an interesting point.   The "assured votes".   Omollo used to post photos of hue crowds at CORD/ODM rallies, and I always asked him "how many of those are even registered?" He never gave an answer, and at the time I asked I was actually looking at the results of the voter-registration exercises in CORD strongholds.   

I can't comment on the 2 million votes "under control", because the audit is still yet to be carried out, but I know that Kenyan voters are largely tribal sheep.  How does it look from that angle?  The "assured votes", that is.

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Jubilee therefore needs tribalism to keep them in power while CORD has to denounce tribalism to win.  CORD therefore is more likely to embrace and strengthen the institutions that fight corruption.  Jubilee on the other hand has no incentive to strengthen these institutions to fight corruption because this will only harm their ardent supporters and corruption is what they use to reward their supporters and to consolidate their rabid tribal following. 

In Kenya, it's all about tribes, and, as in any other place, who actually registers and then shows up to vote matters a great deal.   In fact, I was astonished to see Mutahi Ngunyi suddenly go from "Mr. Ngunyi" to "Prof. Dr. Ngunyi" solely on the basis of his observations that: (a) Kenyan voting is largely determined by tribe, and (b) it helps to get ones supporters to register and then vote.

You lost me on the corruption bit.  First:

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I have no illusion that CORD will less corrupt

and then

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CORD therefore is more likely to embrace and strengthen the institutions that fight corruption.
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Offline MOON Ki

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Re: Luo Elite & Counties in Nyanza- Mismanaged & Broke
« Reply #17 on: January 07, 2017, 01:09:07 AM »
MOON Ki  is  Muli Otieno Otiende Njoroge arap Kiprotich
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Offline Kichwa

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Re: Luo Elite & Counties in Nyanza- Mismanaged & Broke
« Reply #18 on: January 07, 2017, 01:35:33 AM »
I think CORD/NASA can be very competitive and even favored if the elections are free and fair. They can even win under the "normal" stealing where dead voters are allowed to vote because both sides do it. What CORD cannot overcome is the massive 2 million purely electronic votes that Jubilee will add into "ballot" once the bio-identification equipments are turned off. Unless this problem is resolved there is really no need for CORD to participate in the shum elections other than to validate theft.
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Offline MOON Ki

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Re: Luo Elite & Counties in Nyanza- Mismanaged & Broke
« Reply #19 on: January 07, 2017, 01:52:26 AM »
I think CORD/NASA can be very competitive and even favored if the elections are free and fair. They can even win under the "normal" stealing where dead voters are allowed to vote because both sides do it. What CORD cannot overcome is the massive 2 million purely electronic votes that Jubilee will add into "ballot" once the bio-identification equipments are turned off.

That seems to be self-defeating.     It doesn't matter how many people love and support CORD; what matters is who registers and then shows up to vote.  Let's start here: voting in Kenya is usually a matter of clan/tribal/.. sheep following their our man.    So:

(a) What are the base numbers for either coalition?   (That pretty much means, RV+Central vs. The Rest.)

(b) More important: who's registered so far?   


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Unless this problem is resolved there is really no need for CORD to participate in the shum elections other than to validate theft.

And what happens if CORD does not participate?

As a punter, as things stand right now, I wouldn't wager on CORD. And not because the other guys are "incorrigible thieves".   
MOON Ki  is  Muli Otieno Otiende Njoroge arap Kiprotich
Your True Friend, Brother,  and  Compatriot.