The Writing Is On The Wall - Jubilee is On its Way out

[Achiek tho]

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Who would have known that this jubilee will implode right before 2017. The best thing that ever happen was jubilee dissolving all other parties like URP

[veritas]

Hey Alexander ! 

I think it's inevitable Ruto URP.will bite Uhuru TNA sooner than later.

[Achiek tho]

Hey Alexander ! 

I think it's inevitable Ruto URP.will bite Uhuru TNA sooner than later.

Oh yeah! The swallowing of URP by Jubilee has given Gideon Moi (Read KANU) an early christmas present. It is a free-field day in RV...any disgruntled Jubilee member being given a tongue lashing from the Rude, disrespectful William Ruto can just decamp and join KANU. I just hope Isaac Ruto fold his CCM Party and Joins Gideon KANU so that Jubilee can be given a test of its medicine in Rift valley.

GIDEON MOI is currently being advised run IN 2017 as KANU PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE so that he can get his footing ready for 2022, He better not be waiting for William Ruto to 2012 complicate things for him...the time is now. Jubilee is taking RV Voters for granted in favor of the few. And word on the ground is wakina Salat are saying Uhuru should watch / not try lecture Gideon in public the way he did the other day or else he will face Gideo on the ballot 2017...Good time ahead

[Kichwa]

I used to tell them that 2017 was a long ways from now and they laughed saying that 2017 was a forgone conclusion and that 2022 is what concerns them. 2017 is still a long ways but at least they are starting to appreciate that. 2017 is not going to be a walk over for anybody.  Its going to be hard fought and stolen elections are not going to be acceptable. One must win decisively. If 2013 was about Hague, 2017 is going to be about corruption and devolution money.  People vote for the future and not the past. Kalenjin/Kikuyu unity needs a futuristic issue to keep it tight. Ruto 2022 is not going to be enough.

Hey Alexander ! 

I think it's inevitable Ruto URP.will bite Uhuru TNA sooner than later.

Oh yeah! The swallowing of URP by Jubilee has given Gideon Moi (Read KANU) an early christmas present. It is a free-field day in RV...any disgruntled Jubilee member being given a tongue lashing from the Rude, disrespectful William Ruto can just decamp and join KANU. I just hope Isaac Ruto fold his CCM Party and Joins Gideon KANU so that Jubilee can be given a test of its medicine in Rift valley.

GIDEON MOI is currently being advised run IN 2017 as KANU PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE so that he can get his footing ready for 2022, He better not be waiting for William Ruto to 2012 complicate things for him...the time is now. Jubilee is taking RV Voters for granted in favor of the few. And word on the ground is wakina Salat are saying Uhuru should watch / not try lecture Gideon in public the way he did the other day or else he will face Gideo on the ballot 2017...Good time ahead

[RV Pundit]

How did I miss the impolsion of Jubilee. when did this happen?

[Omollo]

How did I miss the impolsion of Jubilee. when did this happen?

Let me help you:

1. With the swallowing of URP, many politicians (governors, Senators and MNAs) saw it as WSR seeking to eliminate them and set up a dictatorship in RV. They have already sent overtures to CORD parties to prepare to break out
2. The rise of CCM by Isaac puts to question the prevailing LIE about Jubilee 2013 vote remaining intact. CCM has not indicated loyalty to Uhuru
3. The Jubilee claim to have penetrated CORD areas is just as brazen as ever. The truth is:

• They have been repulsed and even lost their few 2013 supporters in Coast (Mwakwere),
  
• Kisii (Ongeri), the list is long.
• Garissa is now 99% CORD as we prepare to retire the irritating Duale while
• Ken Lusaka is going home in ignominy (Western)

4. The recent attempt to buy MaDvD not to follow Raila to LAIKIPIA (another so called Jubilee 2013 zone) not only failed but may have backfired as well by forcing Mudavadi to commit to the Opposition publicly. Pull MaDvD's 2013 votes out of the equation and see if Uhuru gets a first round victory without Hassan adding more to the 2 million roving votes.
5. I am sure Pundit would argue that a war between Munya and Murungi in which Jubilee will take sides eventually will not result in some votes leaving Jubilee

Lastly, I was in RV (on account of my Nandi wife) and the mood has changed. Those votes are there for the opposition to lose. I have never witnessed such discontent since Nandis rebelled against Raila after Mau Forest. Whatever magic Ruto had that helped mesmerize Kalenjins is GONE.

[veritas]

Yep. Super alliance between Raila, Gideon, Kalonzo, Mudavadi, Karua + others. Likely field Raila as president since he's the most experienced & should be president, Gideon VP (his dad began as VP) Mudavadi PM, Kalonzo deputy PM.

It's a winning alliance but not necessarily for 2017 but for perhaps 2020 when more of Kenya gets worse under Jubilee.

http://headline-news.today/2016/08/raila-planning-backing-gideon-moi-presidency-2017/

Hey Alexander ! 

I think it's inevitable Ruto URP.will bite Uhuru TNA sooner than later.

Oh yeah! The swallowing of URP by Jubilee has given Gideon Moi (Read KANU) an early christmas present. It is a free-field day in RV...any disgruntled Jubilee member being given a tongue lashing from the Rude, disrespectful William Ruto can just decamp and join KANU. I just hope Isaac Ruto fold his CCM Party and Joins Gideon KANU so that Jubilee can be given a test of its medicine in Rift valley.

GIDEON MOI is currently being advised run IN 2017 as KANU PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE so that he can get his footing ready for 2022, He better not be waiting for William Ruto to 2012 complicate things for him...the time is now. Jubilee is taking RV Voters for granted in favor of the few. And word on the ground is wakina Salat are saying Uhuru should watch / not try lecture Gideon in public the way he did the other day or else he will face Gideo on the ballot 2017...Good time ahead

[veritas]

How did I miss the impolsion of Jubilee. when did this happen?

For a while now dear RVP. Your guy is cornered. Checkmate.

[Nefertiti]

How did I miss the impolsion of Jubilee. when did this happen?

Let me help you:

1. With the swallowing of URP, many politicians (governors, Senators and MNAs) saw it as WSR seeking to eliminate them and set up a dictatorship in RV. They have already sent overtures to CORD parties to prepare to break out
2. The rise of CCM by Isaac puts to question the prevailing LIE about Jubilee 2013 vote remaining intact. CCM has not indicated loyalty to Uhuru
3. The Jubilee claim to have penetrated CORD areas is just as brazen as ever. The truth is:

• They have been repulsed and even lost their few 2013 supporters in Coast (Mwakwere),
  
• Kisii (Ongeri), the list is long.
• Garissa is now 99% CORD as we prepare to retire the irritating Duale while
• Ken Lusaka is going home in ignominy (Western)

4. The recent attempt to buy MaDvD not to follow Raila to LAIKIPIA (another so called Jubilee 2013 zone) not only failed but may have backfired as well by forcing Mudavadi to commit to the Opposition publicly. Pull MaDvD's 2013 votes out of the equation and see if Uhuru gets a first round victory without Hassan adding more to the 2 million roving votes.
5. I am sure Pundit would argue that a war between Munya and Murungi in which Jubilee will take sides eventually will not result in some votes leaving Jubilee

Lastly, I was in RV (on account of my Nandi wife) and the mood has changed. Those votes are there for the opposition to lose. I have never witnessed such discontent since Nandis rebelled against Raila after Mau Forest. Whatever magic Ruto had that helped mesmerize Kalenjins is GONE.

[bryan275]

I'm not sure about a Moi in the NASA.   are we forgetting what his dad did to us?

[RV Pundit]

This is the most delusional post in Nipate this week.Uhuruto won with 53% in 2013 and I see them winning with nearly 60% on account of them having kept their base (gema+RV) and having increased their foothold in gusii,coast,pastoralist communities, ukambani and even parts of luhya western. Where Jubilee were doing 20-30% in 2013 in those swing states - they are now neck to neck with CORD.NASA thing is madvd/moi plan that will not work coz it doesn't include Raila as you would expect. Wetangula is going back to governorship of Bungoma. Kalonzo is as confused as ever and is now losing support to Jubilee/Maendeleo chapchap - and would have to ran - to be taken seriously.

Jubilee are already several steps of opposition thanks to mostly ruto endlessly working the swing votes. Anyone who imagine Gema and kalenjin will not vote uhuruto - do not understand politics.They will vote in large numbers - reason wakina martha karua are running behind their tails - and as for Isaac CCM - that is going to come a cropper - like Kones attempt to sell Nyachae . Gideon Moi and Moi will remain confused and dazed in their agenda less fight against ruto.

[Omollo]

Pundit

What is your source of 53%. My relocation is that Uhuru scored 6,173,433 votes representing a mere   50.51%

That meant Mudavadi's 483,981 (3.96%) handed him victory.

When you return please share with me how you arrive at the conclusion that Uhuru has kept his constituency intact.

How has Uhuru gained a foothold in Gusiii? Did the loss of a County seat recently indicate anything to you? How about the defection of Sam Ongeri? Did the shameful return of Onyonka and his Bomachoge Chache counterpart Simon Ogari mean anything? When is the last time you saw this kind of drama? Note that I do not think the defection of an MP after being drowned in Eurobond cash is an indicator. However Onyonka and Ogari faced open grass root rebellion forcing them to see sense.

You have named Pastoralist communities. Please be specific. Which ones? How have you measured their "defection" to Jubilee?

I am also interested in knowing which parts of Western Province (Luhyaland) Jubilee has captured. Please include details of your measurement(s)

I assume you mean CORD and Jubilee got equal support in Luhyaland in 2013. Instead of these percentages which you seem to pluck from the air, refer me to the actual results of that year. I specifically request that you return with the total figure of the votes Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga received from Bungoma, Kakamega, Busia and Vihiga. That would show us just how neck and neck they were. Or neck and foot Feel free to add evidence of Jubilee's "growing support" in the same area.

Honestly I cannot believe you of all the people believe Mutua has any votes in Ukambani.

Ruto is roaming the country making the very mistakes Raila made in his (Ruto's) respect and lost the RV vote: He goes around insulting local leaders. I for one have advised that he be encouraged to carry on.

I do not doubt that GEMA will vote jubilee with the same enthusiasm as 2013. I DOUBT that Kalenjins will do the same. They have no reason to. They don't believe the 2022 LIE as much as those close to Ruto.

Isaac Ruto's CCM need not propel him to the Presidency. There are many ways it can help the opposition
 

This is the most delusional post in Nipate this week.Uhuruto won with 53% in 2013 and I see them winning with nearly 60% on account of them having kept their base (gema+RV) and having increased their foothold in gusii,coast,pastoralist communities, ukambani and even parts of luhya western. Where Jubilee were doing 20-30% in 2013 in those swing states - they are now neck to neck with CORD.

NASA thing is madvd/moi plan that will not work coz it doesn't include Raila as you would expect. Wetangula is going back to governorship of Bungoma. Kalonzo is as confused as ever and is now losing support to Jubilee/Maendeleo chapchap - and would have to ran - to be taken seriously.

Jubilee are already several steps of opposition thanks to mostly ruto endlessly working the swing votes. Anyone who imagine Gema and kalenjin will not vote uhuruto - do not understand politics.They will vote in large numbers - reason wakina martha karua are running behind their tails - and as for Isaac CCM - that is going to come a cropper - like Kones attempt to sell Nyachae . Gideon Moi and Moi will remain confused and dazed in their agenda less fight against ruto.

[Omollo]

Uhuru votes in selected areas 2013
----------------------------------UHURU--------------------------------RAILA-----------------------MDVD
Kakamega-----------------------12,469--------------------------------303,120---------------------144,962
Vihiga----------------------------2,542----------------------------------77,825----------------------82,426
Bungoma------------------------42,988--------------------------------185,419---------------------107,868
Busia-----------------------------8,186---------------------------------189,161---------------------18,608
Total-----------------------------66,185-------------------------755,525
Machakos-------------------------35,660-------------------------------319,594
Kitui-------------------------------40,752-------------------------------219,588
Makueni---------------------------12,652-------------------------------228,843
Total-------------------------------89,064----------------------768,025
Kisii--------------------------------95,596------------------------------236,831
Nyamira----------------------------54,071------------------------------121,590
The votes in Bungoma arose out of deep ethnic divisions incited by Musikari Kombo. Note however that More people voted for Kombo than Uhuru Kenyatta.

This time round his goose is cooked. He may even get more votes in Kakamega than Bungoma. This after the Chwele incident that saw Kikuyu shops burnt

[RV Pundit]

Omollo,
I am going to summarize coz we are unlikely to agree on anything.
Supreme court ruled that invalid votes won't count in the tally (see Kuria's petition) and therefore Jubilee won with 53%.

Why would a Kalenjin or Gema who voted for Uhuruto then with ICC & scaremongering then..not vote for UhuRuto who are delivering ( I consider it the gov that has delivered the MOST) is beyond me. Jubilee is building combined 200kms tarmac in every county, has supplied electricity and several other projects. In our constitutuency they just launched 56km road..after that we won't need any serious tarmacking..just connectign 3-5kms of roads to tarmacs. This has been replicated at least in counties of Kericho and Bomet that i am aware of. Same with electricity.

Gema+Kalenjin will vote UhuRuto with the same intensity. Isaac Ruto and Gideon Moi are just like Raila men -Franklin Bett and company - but this time I doubt they'll go all the way - expect them recoil - we will back Uhuru but not ruto.

That leave UhuRuto need few top ups - and there is no reason why they won't get the 53% - I think they'll get extra 5% from Ruto relentless campainging.

In COAST - Raila edge is gone - I see 50-50 game down there. The same with Gusii - 50-50 game. Pastoralist ( you know them) will vote 70% Jubilee or even more. Mwakere & Ongeri are moving out because mainstream popular politicians like mvurya and kisii senator Obure are moving to Jubilee.

Uhuru in western will get Kalenjin's Sabaot and few bukusu (Lusaka is very strong), few mumias folks (Ben Washiali also strong) - but those are tops up -already Jubilee would be nearing 60%.Ukambani - Mutua has actually delivered - just like Jubilee - tangible stuff like nearly 60-100kms of tarmac road, piped water, 70 ambulance and working hospitals - why would somebody vote him out - machakos is locked - Mutua is working on Makueni & Kitui.

Uhuru is sleepwalking to another term. You can disagree but we will see in eight months.

Pundit

What is your source of 53%. My relocation is that Uhuru scored 6,173,433 votes representing a mere   50.51%

That meant Mudavadi's 483,981 (3.96%) handed him victory.

When you return please share with me how you arrive at the conclusion that Uhuru has kept his constituency intact.

How has Uhuru gained a foothold in Gusiii? Did the loss of a County seat recently indicate anything to you? How about the defection of Sam Ongeri? Did the shameful return of Onyonka and his Bomachoge Chache counterpart Simon Ogari mean anything? When is the last time you saw this kind of drama? Note that I do not think the defection of an MP after being drowned in Eurobond cash is an indicator. However Onyonka and Ogari faced open grass root rebellion forcing them to see sense.

You have named Pastoralist communities. Please be specific. Which ones? How have you measured their "defection" to Jubilee?

I am also interested in knowing which parts of Western Province (Luhyaland) Jubilee has captured. Please include details of your measurement(s)

I assume you mean CORD and Jubilee got equal support in Luhyaland in 2013. Instead of these percentages which you seem to pluck from the air, refer me to the actual results of that year. I specifically request that you return with the total figure of the votes Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga received from Bungoma, Kakamega, Busia and Vihiga. That would show us just how neck and neck they were. Or neck and foot Feel free to add evidence of Jubilee's "growing support" in the same area.

Honestly I cannot believe you of all the people believe Mutua has any votes in Ukambani.

Ruto is roaming the country making the very mistakes Raila made in his (Ruto's) respect and lost the RV vote: He goes around insulting local leaders. I for one have advised that he be encouraged to carry on.

I do not doubt that GEMA will vote jubilee with the same enthusiasm as 2013. I DOUBT that Kalenjins will do the same. They have no reason to. They don't believe the 2022 LIE as much as those close to Ruto.

Isaac Ruto's CCM need not propel him to the Presidency. There are many ways it can help the opposition
 

This is the most delusional post in Nipate this week.Uhuruto won with 53% in 2013 and I see them winning with nearly 60% on account of them having kept their base (gema+RV) and having increased their foothold in gusii,coast,pastoralist communities, ukambani and even parts of luhya western. Where Jubilee were doing 20-30% in 2013 in those swing states - they are now neck to neck with CORD.

NASA thing is madvd/moi plan that will not work coz it doesn't include Raila as you would expect. Wetangula is going back to governorship of Bungoma. Kalonzo is as confused as ever and is now losing support to Jubilee/Maendeleo chapchap - and would have to ran - to be taken seriously.

Jubilee are already several steps of opposition thanks to mostly ruto endlessly working the swing votes. Anyone who imagine Gema and kalenjin will not vote uhuruto - do not understand politics.They will vote in large numbers - reason wakina martha karua are running behind their tails - and as for Isaac CCM - that is going to come a cropper - like Kones attempt to sell Nyachae . Gideon Moi and Moi will remain confused and dazed in their agenda less fight against ruto.

[Omollo]

In short, Uhuru has two choices:

1. To accept defeat and be guaranteed to continue drinking off the wealth his parents stole including killing and selling elephants
2. Attempt to rig elections using Safaricom and by corrupting the new IEBC

I don't see Uhuru winning this election if it is free and fair.

[RV Pundit]

Defeat to who? Nasa? COrd? Raila? Mudavadi? Kalonzo? Wetangula? Or Gideon Moi

In short, Uhuru has two choices:

1. To accept defeat and be guaranteed to continue drinking off the wealth his parents stole including killing and selling elephants
2. Attempt to rig elections using Safaricom and by corrupting the new IEBC

I don't see Uhuru winning this election if it is free and fair.

[RV Pundit]

I see uhuru improving everywhere in that map. Gusii & Machakos will be 50-50. Bungoma with Wetangula running back to be governor will be anyone game - Uhuru got votes from Mt elgon only - New Ford Kenya voted for MaDVD. Uhuru will improve in Kakamega esp amongst the wanga. Busia - Teso versus Luhya war - will implode ODM support there - so expect Jubilee to gain. Vihiga is maDVD.

Uhuru votes in selected areas 2013
----------------------------------UHURU--------------------------------RAILA-----------------------MDVD
Kakamega-----------------------12,469--------------------------------303,120---------------------144,962
Vihiga----------------------------2,542----------------------------------77,825----------------------82,426
Bungoma------------------------42,988--------------------------------185,419---------------------107,868
Busia-----------------------------8,186---------------------------------189,161---------------------18,608
Total-----------------------------66,185-------------------------755,525
Machakos-------------------------35,660-------------------------------319,594
Kitui-------------------------------40,752-------------------------------219,588
Makueni---------------------------12,652-------------------------------228,843
Total-------------------------------89,064----------------------768,025
Kisii--------------------------------95,596------------------------------236,831
Nyamira----------------------------54,071------------------------------121,590
The votes in Bungoma arose out of deep ethnic divisions incited by Musikari Kombo. Note however that More people voted for Kombo than Uhuru Kenyatta.

This time round his goose is cooked. He may even get more votes in Kakamega than Bungoma. This after the Chwele incident that saw Kikuyu shops burnt

[RV Pundit]

Omollo,
Remember my final MOAS - 22nd Feb 2013.

JUBILEE 53% (5.5M) - Bulls eye
CORD   37% (3.8M) - 43%
Amani 8% (870K) -4%
Others 2%(160K) -Bulls eye

I only missed western - coz I thought MaDVD would beat Raila there - otherwise I was spot on the rest.

http://nipate.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=21240&p=160814#p160814&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[Omollo]

Pundit

I cannot relate to propaganda. What you have done is simply reproduce Jubilee internal talking points and added a little bit of Ruto's notes to Uhuru when he is requesting for more funds.

I will take you seriously if you share how you arrive at those blanket conclusions.

Please let me know when Ben Njomo Washiali will hold a public rally to drum support for Uhuru in Mumias and I will concede that Uhuru will get some votes. Washiali is going home and he is lining his pockets to polish his pension. I cannot count how many funerals from which he has been ejected. He however has very cosy relations with Kikuyu owned media which somehow always happens to be around when he carries out his stunts for the benefit of Uhuru and yourselves. I pity you if you rely on such characters.

Then there is Lusaka. Jesus. The next governor of Bungoma is the Former Internal Security Assistant Minister. Lusaka is going home. He came in to office by compromise having cheated ODM he will work with them. Not this time bro.

What vote do you have at the Coast? Mwashetani is going home because ODM has refused to allow him back in to CORD. Mungaro cant win his own Malindi seat and can continue screwing everything in a skirt in hotels while cheating Uhuru.

If you keep Mvurya we take Mwakwere. Whoever runs on ODM wins Kwale. Take it to the bank. Where are your votes in Kwale? Not with Uhuru owning thousands of acres of land there.

What about Taita-Taveta? No chance bro. Its CORD territory.

Need I add Mombasa?

You will get some votes in Tana River because of ethnicity. If we take the Orma you take the Pokomo. That is guaranteed.

But of course according to you, Uhuru has delivered so he will get all the votes. Those beaten and killed in Mumias will ignore their beatings and follow Njomo to Jomo's son.

What a joke

Omollo,
I am going to summarize coz we are unlikely to agree on anything.
Supreme court ruled that invalid votes won't count in the tally (see Kuria's petition) and therefore Jubilee won with 53%.

Why would a Kalenjin or Gema who voted for Uhuruto then with ICC & scaremongering then..not vote for UhuRuto who are delivering ( I consider it the gov that has delivered the MOST) is beyond me. Jubilee is building combined 200kms in every county, has supplied electricity and several other projects.

Gema+Kalenjin will vote UhuRuto with the same intensity. Isaac Ruto and Gideon Moi are just like Raila men -Franklin Bett and company - but this time I doubt they'll go all the way - expect them recoil - we will back Uhuru but not ruto.

That leave UhuRuto need few top ups - and there is no reason why they won't get the 53% - I think they'll get extra 5% from Ruto relentless campainging.

In COAST - Raila edge is gone - I see 50-50 game down there. The same with Gusii - 50-50 game. Pastoralist ( you know them) will vote 70% Jubilee or even more. Mwakere & Ongeri are moving out because mainstream popular politicians like mvurya and kisii senator Obure are moving to Jubilee.

Uhuru in western will get Kalenjin's Sabaot and few bukusu (Lusaka is very strong), few mumias folks (Ben Washiali also strong) - but those are tops up -already Jubilee would be nearing 60%.Ukambani - Mutua has actually delivered - just like Jubilee - tangible stuff like nearly 60-100kms of tarmac road, piped water, 70 ambulance and working hospitals - why would somebody vote him out - machakos is locked - Mutua is working on Makueni & Kitui.

Uhuru is sleepwalking to another term. You can disagree but we will see in eight months.

[RV Pundit]

Few months to election - I will release the fifty Mother of All SpreadSheets - which I have been doing since 2005 referendum and been generally been accurate - way better than any pollster out there.
http://nipate.com/viewtopic.php?t=23826