These figures also point to viability of SGR and even more robust rail systems
Data from the Northern Corridor Transit and Transport Coordination Authority (NCTTCA) shows that at least 12,143 heavy commercial vehicles are weighed daily at five weighbridges within Kenya.
The quarterly Port Community Charter Report from January-March 2016 shows that in March, 5,583 trucks were weighed at the Athi River (Mlolongo) weighbridge; 2,507 in Mariakani; 2,655 in Gilgil; 965 in Webuye and 432 in Busia.
Most containers are destined for within Kenya
Add the corruption on the roads
This means that police officers manning one roadblock at Mlolongo and who receive a Sh50 bribe from every truck will collect Sh279,150 daily, Sh132,750 in Gilgil, Sh125,350 in Mariakani, Sh48,250 in Webuye and Sh21,600 in Busia.
The amount could be higher, considering the multiple roadblocks between weighbridges and also considering that some officers might demand a higher amount.
Driving over the speed limit attracts the largest bribe, which can go up to Sh5,000.
there is every rational incentive to use the rail as it makes business sense
Somewhat shaky analysis ... to my mind. It is a bit like looking at the total amounts that coppers would collect if they stopped every ordinary car on the road and collected Sh. 50 from each, and on that basis, arguing that everyone would be better off taking a plane.
* Let us assume that they do---and we know they don't---stop every car. One would have to look at how many times the "average" car was stopped, add up the total amount, and consider the cost of a plane ticket. (In the present case, it is not every truck paying all those figures at every roadblock or whatever.) How many Kenyans consider that it would be cheaper to fly than to pay bribes on the road? In general: total costs have to be considered, and on a more "fine-grained" basis.
There is also some confusion between weighbridges and "ordinary" roadblocks; there are fewer of the former, but the cost-per-stop is higher. Still, if we accept the confusion/assumption that every weighbridge corresponds to a roadblock, and there are 5 of them, then one truck only coughs up a total of Sh. 250. Is that enough to drive them from the roads to the railway? (See also third point below.)
* Bribes on the road actually account for very little of the overall transportation costs. We know that because the matter has been carefully considered: The main consultancy company that was hired by the East African countries for their "Railway Master Plan" was the Canadian company, CPCS, which has international repute in this regard and which is continuing to work for the EAC countries on an "Enhanced Railway Plan". CPCS looked into the matter in detail for Kenya, counted weighbridges and roadblocks, calculated how much is forked out where, etc. and concluded that the money given to drivers for food+hotel+bribes+incidentals came to around 5% of the total cost. (The major cost from weighbridges and roadblocks is due to delays.)
* There seems to be the assumption that those paying bribes at weighbridges, which is where the huge bribes are dished out, are all solid, upright citizens who are reluctant to do so and who resent the "business". That is not so. Most of those paying are doing so to get away with overloading. As long as they consider that their "savings" in that regard (taking into account the cost of delays) are significant, why would anyone expect them to stop and switch to the railways?
* I have noted the optimistic reports on Mombasa port. These reports seem to assume that as long as the economy is growing, cargo into the port will keep growing. Not so, I'm afraid; there's the little matter of hard constraints imposed by nature: This is a shallow-water port. That means it cannot accommodate very large ships, and there is a limit to how many smaller ships it can handle within a given period. There seems to be little room to move past the last dredging of the port.
(Arguments on volume of cargo coming into ports would, if they could, have more strength if, say, they were based on what Lamu Port might be, with an extension to the SGR running from there, and so on and so forth.)
* I have also noted equally optimistic claims on what can be moved from the roads to the railways. Implicit in these is the assumption that the truckers will quietly let their livelihoods go, e.g. that they would not price their services to be competitive (and that's taking into account all the "something small", the delays, etc.). I wouldn't bet on it.
One figure I have seen here is 70%. I don't know where that figure comes from; the government's own consultant puts it at a high of 30%. And this is on the basis of figures provided by the government, not some made-up figures from a place with "anemic" growth. (See the next point.)
*
One of the most interesting things I've learned while trying to make sense of this SGR business: a little about logistics. It turns out that just having X tonnes come off a ship on Day Y doesn't mean that one can immediately plonk it onto the railway line attached to the port and it will arrive at the destination within the time specified in government manuals. One needs enough wagons, with enough capacity, at a certain frequency, etc., etc. etc. And things get very tricky when the railway is one-track .... which leads to container depots and then more of them. (Very dull stuff, I admit, but it turns out that Kenya has one of two problems in this regard.) Etc. etc. etc., the essence of which is that having so many "movable" tonnes per year is actually quite a different matter from actually being able to move so many tonnes per year .... and the competition steps in ....
* There has also been some funny reasoning in relation to what % of cargo goes where. Without getting into details, we should note that charges are by distance, so 1% to Nairobi is not entirely the same as 1% to Malaba.
Will SGR make money, even up to Nairobi? We'll have to wait and see .... so far the government has been rather coy when it comes to what the charges would be, per tonne or whatever, per kilometre or whatever. Etc. etc. etc. But I have noted the out-of-nowhere Nipatean figures.
Topic: Kenya biggest investment (yeah SGR) to be completed in March 2017! (Read 8475 times)