Kikuyus Will Surely Dump Ruto in 2022

[RV Pundit]

Well. I guess you're all set. And Ruto is in big big trouble. This is classified info. No doubt. Coz from where I sit...my view is that Ruto and Jubilee are set. Regarding appeasing Luo or Luhyas now for 2022..how did you manage to appease Kalonzo and Kamba after the "betrayal" of 2007. How is Ruto doing after he did his heroics in 2007. Now the derided Kalonzo is very liked in your places and Ruto hated.In short alliances and interests will change. In Jubilee there is no need to change a winning coalition.  Ruto is already doing fine as DP sharing power at 50-50, is busy amazing war chest, with a party with third largest party with 78Mps and controls large portion of the country...about 20%..mainly in RV and pastoral diaspora. How you think he'll regress to become Ngilu or Karua is just wishful thinking. All Ruto to improve his 78 (now 100 plus ) MPs, Governors and Senators to large number from areas like coast, upper eastern, parts of western (Teso has 2 URP mps) and of course take over turkana and maa ---by funding mps and governors there--and helping them campaigning.

Anyway we can go on and on and on ..so let put this under classified.  Ruto inspire a lot of "fear" in many areas of this country because folks know he got it all covered and there is no stopping him.

Raila & Kalonzo failed in their GEMA project coz they are just poor negotiators and don't understand how to play power games. So far Ruto is doing very well. It been 4yrs where GEMA has shared power down to the middle. Where ministries or parastal your thought were gema reserved are being run by Ruto allies. The power sharing from ministers, to ps, to parastals and ambassadors went so well....maybe you just don't understand GEMA. The same way Jaramogi couldn't hacked it severally with GEMA (60s and 90s) is the same way Raila failed to hack it (90s and 2000s)...while Moi and Ruto are making it look so easy!

Isn't that why Uhuru was created by Moi & supported Ruto back in 2001s while it was "easy" to just endorse Raila or Kalonzo! You think they had not seen he was a Kikuyu.If you cannot handle Kikuyu politicians don't think everyone else cannot.

Long and short. Uhuru wins 2017. Ruto wins 2022. I am sticking to that until I see evidence that this won't happen.

It was never about counting thousands of people who may or may not endorse Ruto. It is Kenya we are speaking about. It took one Oloitiptip tip to force through a cabinet endorsement of Moi read by Kibaki. That started a movement that overturned all the schemes in place - not least with a slightly heavy hand of Moi's business partner Kanyotu. So there you go with numbers in Kenya. Kabogo, Munya or Njoroge speak for many and are sure playing to the prejudices of their supporters.

That said, it is one way to see it that Kabogo, Munya, Chege or Njoroge are attracting the attention of Ruto for the DP post. After all the person would have to command the support of GEMA and bring it with him to the table. There are many ways of looking at it too. Like the straight way: Kikuyus due to the many mass oathings since 1966 will not vote for a non Kikuyu.

Let me repeat: Ruto will probably take over JAP or Jubilee. The way Ngilu hang on to NARC and Karua hang on to NARC Kenya.  Uhuru after having KANU hang around his neck like an albatross for years finally dumped it. What I am saying Pundit, it does not matter how "strong" a party if part of that strength does not include  popular support. Kikuyus will dump a Ruto led party. It is then you will hear some of the things we hear them say about him when they take too much wine in our presence. Butcher of Eldoret is quite common to hear.

In your view, Ruto then realizes what 90% of the country already knows and pulls out plan B. He reaches out to the Luhya and gets a Luhya running mate. The Luhya abandon their alliance with the Luo and jump in bed to help the man who abandoned them in their fight against the Kikuyu domination win. You haven't stated how this Plan B will work ij detail and may be you should. Will Ruto expect Luhyas to be in the same alliance with Kikuyus? I can tell you in advance if the feelings on the ground remain as they are now with anger against Kikuyu domination, it will not work.

I still do not see where CORD has lost support. The MPs that Euro Bond Cash is buying are telling us that they need to refill their war-chests. A hint = there are very few complaints from our side and non of the MPs is defecting. If you have influence tell them to start compelling them to defect for the cash and see what happens bro.

Jubilee has stolen so much money they don't even know where it is. Some of the people distributing the cash as far flung Kikuyu "businessmen" and women in enclaves and islands in the country. We'll talk about that sometime.

Kalonzo was offered Majority Leader post in 2012 remember. Has it changed? I am one of those who think it is important for the three to publicize their Presidential candidacy. In fact Joho should declare as should someone from Kisii and NEP. It is a campaign ploy Pundit. If Kalonzo does not actively tell his people he will stand, he could cost us votes.

If MaDVD is not helping Uhuru destroy 300K votes how will he get the excuse to rig himself-in, in the first round? CORD is best served without MaDVD.

Thank God for Ruto keeping ambitious people away from Jubilee, we don't have to worry about any going there.

CORD has succeeded in isolating Kikuyus. Thanks to Uhuru. The next face is classified.

I see you can count with a single hand all the guys who have express some reservation of DP Ruto winning GEMA vote; I cannot count how many have endorsed Ruto; Kabogo himself is busy trying to position himself as Ruto DP. Obviously we will have a long time to revisit this isssue..till the night of 2022 elections. So I let that rest.

As for Uhuru winning by more by 50% he got last time. That too is just so self-evident we really don't have to sweat it. UhuRuto have kept their coalition intact and have made significant in roads in CORD areas. That should pump their numbers up. I am not sure how many Mps out of 130 CORD have that still are loyal --I'd put the number at about 50. Everywhere I look I see so many defectors.
 
These Mps I think don't see any Raila path to 2012. First CORD have to sort out MOU issues with Kalonzo. Then they have to demonstrate with facts how they intend to overturn Uhuru's 50%? Without that they will continue to bleed. Those Mps know Raila had the best shot in 2013 and totally blew it.

This seem impossible considering Jubilee has basically delivered on their promises, I have played some neat smart politics, remain united despite the hulabaloo about 2022 and already have a line up.

If Jubilee were to offer Kalonzo the Majority Leader now..I'd bet he'll ran for it. But that will complicate Ruto's 2012 bid. You want those guys tired and broke by 2022. So Ruto will never allow MaDVD or Kalonzo or any other potentially ambitious leader near Jubilee. The current Kabogos, Munyas and Njoroge are already a problem enough leave alone their hopelessness in taking Ruto head on.  Ruto has to make sure that after Uhuru; it will be him and only him.

Jubilee has to really implode for Raila to come back from the dead.

[Simanova]

[Simanova]

I know you are saying it in jest but the reality is that Ruto is indeed in trouble. I finally got the video of Njoroge. He say Ruto has a lot of baggage on his shoulders. It looked smooth sailing but no more. I can buy your spin on it about how his people are controlling everything and are just waiting to take over except that it is simply not true. Kikuyus have their 50 plus % and Ruto has to share his 50 minus. First with them and then anybody else the bring in.

I do not believe you should compare Ruto to Moi and vice versa because it just does not fit. Moi did not make deals with Kikuyu elites. In fact he had enough problems driving through roadblocks, leave alone going to central. Moi's ally was Mama Ngina. She knew Kenyatta would not survive and took steps to help Moi and help herself.

It was simple: The other group would install Kenyatta's son Peter. He would finish Ngina's clan. She therefore had Koinange dispatched to Nairobi and a number of people she knew would interfere. She invited Moi man Kariithi to Mombasa to ensure GSU cooperated. She got Kanyotu, Gichuru (KAF) and Mulinge on board. Kwisha.

The Moi slapping Kikuyus were sidelined at the crucial moment. Moi repaid the debt.

If Uhuru is going to repay the favor it will be to Moi not Ruto.

We shall neutralize the war chest. It is a priority bro.

Jaramogi understood GEMA and so does Raila. The 24 years that Moi took is the reason you believe Ruto understands GEMA. He doesn't. GEMA will never willingly let the Presidency leave Central and suffer another 24 years. And certainly not under a Kalenjin. Let us review this here God and Veritas willing in 2018. Late 2017 will be too early and you will still be smarting from defeat.

Moi relied on Raila to navigate his last term. He groomed Uhuru to repay an old debt based on an oath he took. He knew there were qualified candidates.

Uhuru and Ruto are going home come next year. The temptation to stick around will be there and who knows they could try a Kibaki. Indications are they will try. We are prepared.

Well. I guess you're all set. And Ruto is in big big trouble. This is classified info. No doubt. Coz from where I sit...my view is that Ruto and Jubilee are set. Regarding appeasing Luo or Luhyas now for 2022..how did you manage to appease Kalonzo and Kamba after the "betrayal" of 2007. How is Ruto doing after he did his heroics in 2007. Now the derided Kalonzo is very liked in your places and Ruto hated.In short alliances and interests will change. In Jubilee there is no need to change a winning coalition.  Ruto is already doing fine as DP sharing power at 50-50, is busy amazing war chest, with a party with third largest party with 78Mps and controls large portion of the country...about 20%..mainly in RV and pastoral diaspora. How you think he'll regress to become Ngilu or Karua is just wishful thinking. All Ruto to improve his 78 (now 100 plus ) MPs, Governors and Senators to large number from areas like coast, upper eastern, parts of western (Teso has 2 URP mps) and of course take over turkana and maa ---by funding mps and governors there--and helping them campaigning.

Anyway we can go on and on and on ..so let put this under classified.  Ruto inspire a lot of "fear" in many areas of this country because folks know he got it all covered and there is no stopping him.

Raila & Kalonzo failed in their GEMA project coz they are just poor negotiators and don't understand how to play power games. So far Ruto is doing very well. It been 4yrs where GEMA has shared power down to the middle. Where ministries or parastal your thought were gema reserved are being run by Ruto allies. The power sharing from ministers, to ps, to parastals and ambassadors went so well....maybe you just don't understand GEMA. The same way Jaramogi couldn't hacked it severally with GEMA (60s and 90s) is the same way Raila failed to hack it (90s and 2000s)...while Moi and Ruto are making it look so easy!

Isn't that why Uhuru was created by Moi & supported Ruto back in 2001s while it was "easy" to just endorse Raila or Kalonzo! You think they had not seen he was a Kikuyu.If you cannot handle Kikuyu politicians don't think everyone else cannot.

Long and short. Uhuru wins 2017. Ruto wins 2022. I am sticking to that until I see evidence that this won't happen.

[RV Pundit]

Sounds like all you said btw 2007-2013 before losing badly.So let wait again. This debate in any case will never end. Even when Ruto has won in 2022...you will be here with the usual rumors,theories and speculations.

I know you are saying it in jest but the reality is that Ruto is indeed in trouble. I finally got the video of Njoroge. He say Ruto has a lot of baggage on his shoulders. It looked smooth sailing but no more. I can buy your spin on it about how his people are controlling everything and are just waiting to take over except that it is simply not true. Kikuyus have their 50 plus % and Ruto has to share his 50 minus. First with them and then anybody else the bring in.

I do not believe you should compare Ruto to Moi and vice versa because it just does not fit. Moi did not make deals with Kikuyu elites. In fact he had enough problems driving through roadblocks, leave alone going to central. Moi's ally was Mama Ngina. She knew Kenyatta would not survive and took steps to help Moi and help herself.

It was simple: The other group would install Kenyatta's son Peter. He would finish Ngina's clan. She therefore had Koinange dispatched to Nairobi and a number of people she knew would interfere. She invited Moi man Kariithi to Mombasa to ensure GSU cooperated. She got Kanyotu, Gichuru (KAF) and Mulinge on board. Kwisha.

The Moi slapping Kikuyus were sidelined at the crucial moment. Moi repaid the debt.

If Uhuru is going to repay the favor it will be to Moi not Ruto.

We shall neutralize the war chest. It is a priority bro.

Jaramogi understood GEMA and so does Raila. The 24 years that Moi took is the reason you believe Ruto understands GEMA. He doesn't. GEMA will never willingly let the Presidency leave Central and suffer another 24 years. And certainly not under a Kalenjin. Let us review this here God and Veritas willing in 2018. Late 2017 will be too early and you will still be smarting from defeat.

Moi relied on Raila to navigate his last term. He groomed Uhuru to repay an old debt based on an oath he took. He knew there were qualified candidates.

Uhuru and Ruto are going home come next year. The temptation to stick around will be there and who knows they could try a Kibaki. Indications are they will try. We are prepared.

Well. I guess you're all set. And Ruto is in big big trouble. This is classified info. No doubt. Coz from where I sit...my view is that Ruto and Jubilee are set. Regarding appeasing Luo or Luhyas now for 2022..how did you manage to appease Kalonzo and Kamba after the "betrayal" of 2007. How is Ruto doing after he did his heroics in 2007. Now the derided Kalonzo is very liked in your places and Ruto hated.In short alliances and interests will change. In Jubilee there is no need to change a winning coalition.  Ruto is already doing fine as DP sharing power at 50-50, is busy amazing war chest, with a party with third largest party with 78Mps and controls large portion of the country...about 20%..mainly in RV and pastoral diaspora. How you think he'll regress to become Ngilu or Karua is just wishful thinking. All Ruto to improve his 78 (now 100 plus ) MPs, Governors and Senators to large number from areas like coast, upper eastern, parts of western (Teso has 2 URP mps) and of course take over turkana and maa ---by funding mps and governors there--and helping them campaigning.

Anyway we can go on and on and on ..so let put this under classified.  Ruto inspire a lot of "fear" in many areas of this country because folks know he got it all covered and there is no stopping him.

Raila & Kalonzo failed in their GEMA project coz they are just poor negotiators and don't understand how to play power games. So far Ruto is doing very well. It been 4yrs where GEMA has shared power down to the middle. Where ministries or parastal your thought were gema reserved are being run by Ruto allies. The power sharing from ministers, to ps, to parastals and ambassadors went so well....maybe you just don't understand GEMA. The same way Jaramogi couldn't hacked it severally with GEMA (60s and 90s) is the same way Raila failed to hack it (90s and 2000s)...while Moi and Ruto are making it look so easy!

Isn't that why Uhuru was created by Moi & supported Ruto back in 2001s while it was "easy" to just endorse Raila or Kalonzo! You think they had not seen he was a Kikuyu.If you cannot handle Kikuyu politicians don't think everyone else cannot.

Long and short. Uhuru wins 2017. Ruto wins 2022. I am sticking to that until I see evidence that this won't happen.

[Simanova]

Hahaha I wonder which side is URP and which is TNA

[RV Pundit]

STATEMENT ON THE 2022 JUBILEE PRESIDENTIAL TICKET

His Excellency the President has been categorical about the 2022 Jubilee ticket. He has made it very clear that the party will fully back Deputy President William Ruto.

First, the President has explained that 10 years of his own term are not long enough to implement the grand plan Jubilee has for Kenya.

He has pointed out this super plan needs about 20 years to implement.

The President is at the heart of Kenya's transformation through mega infrastructure, energy generation and distribution, quality education, modernising agriculture and industrialisation, among others.

The DP has been part of the agenda. It is, therefore, crucial that he be the one to take the agenda forward.

Two, Jubilee has brought bountiful peace not only in the Rift Valley, but also in many other conflict-prone areas.

The Jubilee ticket of President Kenyatta and Deputy President Ruto is good for its supporters and good for Kenya.

Three, the DP is doing an excellent job and has proved his abilities, acumen and diligence as a leader.

Those haranguing the country over the 2022 election are wasting their time.

The reaction of Jubilee supporters and many other Kenyans have been absolutely clear in their support for the Deputy President.

Munyori Buku

Senior Director of Public Communication

State House

Hahaha I wonder which side is URP and which is TNA

[Simanova]

[Simanova]

Pundit

It is very simple and you know it too: Uhuru Kenyatta will cease to be the Kikuyu King Maker a day after he wins the second term (in the unlikely event he actually wins). Ruto will become expendable a few seconds after polling closes.

STATEMENT ON THE 2022 JUBILEE PRESIDENTIAL TICKET

His Excellency the President has been categorical about the 2022 Jubilee ticket. He has made it very clear that the party will fully back Deputy President William Ruto.

First, the President has explained that 10 years of his own term are not long enough to implement the grand plan Jubilee has for Kenya.

He has pointed out this super plan needs about 20 years to implement.

The President is at the heart of Kenya's transformation through mega infrastructure, energy generation and distribution, quality education, modernising agriculture and industrialisation, among others.

The DP has been part of the agenda. It is, therefore, crucial that he be the one to take the agenda forward.

Two, Jubilee has brought bountiful peace not only in the Rift Valley, but also in many other conflict-prone areas.

The Jubilee ticket of President Kenyatta and Deputy President Ruto is good for its supporters and good for Kenya.

Three, the DP is doing an excellent job and has proved his abilities, acumen and diligence as a leader.

Those haranguing the country over the 2022 election are wasting their time.

The reaction of Jubilee supporters and many other Kenyans have been absolutely clear in their support for the Deputy President.

Munyori Buku

Senior Director of Public Communication

State House

Hahaha I wonder which side is URP and which is TNA

[RV Pundit]

And who is the new king that you'll unveil then? This is just delusion on grand scale. As long as Uhuru remain committed for Ruto to inherit him; Ruto should sleep easy. Uhuru is going to be PORK for 5yrs with Ruto as Deputy. They will both be leaders of Jubilee. I just don't see any Kikuyu in horizon who'll come and jump the queue. Who is that? peter kenneth    Uhuru is very young dude so he's not hanging is boots in 2022 like Kibaki or Moi --he is actually going to be active leader of Jubilee. He might not be PORK or DPORK but he will be out there perhaps as "Chief Advisor". If you think Uhuru will unilaterally "donate" all the power and influence he has next year to some nobody like Njoroge or Kabogo --then you got jokes. They'll have to work their butt off to take it forcefully. As it is now --Uhuru can even appoint his wife or son as his "successor" --and nobody in GEMA have the cojones to take him on. Unlike even Kibaki he seem to have GEMA under lock n key. The same confidence that had Moi pulling Uhuru & Gideon on KANU. He earned that position thanks to PEV 2007. While Kibaki was sleeping in statehouse...he stuck his neck out and defended Kikuyuz who were being massacred everywhere...got into ICC trouble but out of it --he came out the DE FACTO Muthamaki. Kibaki did not "hand" it over. He took it by force.  Now throw in Mama Ngina bottomless money. And by time you add "PORK" then Uhuru is already unassailable.

You just need to read that statement again for all the clues. Uhuru is saying he intends to ran the show with Ruto for 20yrs.

Pundit
It is very simple and you know it too: Uhuru Kenyatta will cease to be the Kikuyu King Maker a day after he wins the second term (in the unlikely event he actually wins). Ruto will become expendable a few seconds after polling closes.

[Simanova]

Pundit

Then explain this:

1. Why didn't GEMA follow Kibaki's plan to launch MaDVD?
2. Why did Michuki openly and defiantly announce Uhuru as the new Voice while Kibaki's agreements, understandings and pacts were ignored?

I do not know which Kikuyu will appear from the horizon. There are speculations but none well founded. In any case Uhuru emerged from nowhere to eclipse those we thought were ahead. So it is to be expected that others will emerge - even his own brother Muhoho.

Like I said, Kikuyus will look beyond Uhuru unless he is offering them what they want most: Keeping the presidency. Anybody who comes and says to hell with the Ruto agreement will be followed. He will have the numbers to cut a deal with some silly tribe in Kenya, may be even Luos or Luhyas. Didn't you just say there are no permanent enemies in politics?

Uhuru will not donate power. It will leave him once all he is promising is the departure of power from Kikuyuland. It will go to those or that promising to retain it. we have already seen that there will be many.

If he appoints his son, brother or wife that will keep him in power. It is the idea of taking the power out of Central that won't work.

He earned the power. And will lose it once he starts giving the presidency away. Moi had the power and started losing it big when he named Uhuru. Ruto took it when he stood up to Kikuyus and now is promising to bring it back. Its looking shaky now with all the cats being let out of the GEMA tent.

And who is the new king that you'll unveil then? This is just delusion on grand scale. As long as Uhuru remain committed for Ruto to inherit him; Ruto should sleep easy. Uhuru is going to be PORK for 5yrs with Ruto as Deputy. They will both be leaders of Jubilee. I just don't see any Kikuyu in horizon who'll come and jump the queue. Who is that? peter kenneth    Uhuru is very young dude so he's not hanging is boots in 2022 like Kibaki or Moi --he is actually going to be active leader of Jubilee. He might not be PORK or DPORK but he will be out there perhaps as "Chief Advisor". If you think Uhuru will unilaterally "donate" all the power and influence he has next year to some nobody like Njoroge or Kabogo --then you got jokes. They'll have to work their butt off to take it forcefully. As it is now --Uhuru can even appoint his wife or son as his "successor" --and nobody in GEMA have the cojones to take him on. Unlike even Kibaki he seem to have GEMA under lock n key. The same confidence that had Moi pulling Uhuru & Gideon on KANU. He earned that position thanks to PEV 2007. While Kibaki was sleeping in statehouse...he stuck his neck out and defended Kikuyuz who were being massacred everywhere...got into ICC trouble but out of it --he came out the DE FACTO Muthamaki. Kibaki did not "hand" it over. He took it by force.  Now throw in Mama Ngina bottomless money. And by time you add "PORK" then Uhuru is already unassailable.

You just need to read that statement again for all the clues. Uhuru is saying he intends to ran the show with Ruto for 20yrs.

[RV Pundit]

Kibaki was not a politician and we should not waste time discussing someone so inept. If Raila was not such a flawed politician - he would already had been PORK.

We can go on and on..about Ruto plan..like we did in pre-2013 and it panned out like I told you as earlier as 2008. You are just going to come up with more theories without even acknowledging all of your theories have basically bombed. While I predicted UhuRuto would form a coalition way back in 2008 and win 2013 - April 2008 to be precise- just after horrendous PEV- and it panned out exactly like it did.

About 10yrs later...and here we go again.

What will make Ruto 2022 PORK is the political LEVERAGE he will wield. That leverage will come from controlling Jubilee as this big party with more than 200mps and governors all over the country. Ruto is dumping URP so he can create a big party like KANU or ODM by design - Uhuru doesn't need a party -- and once the party is created - Ruto will fund and campaign for many MPs--he'll basically own the party -whoever will try to splinter it --will at best take 1/4 of the party. That leverage will come from having support in Kalenjin + pastoral + coastal +small tribes plus Jubilee allied Mps here and there. That leverage will come from having enough money, patronage and power that come with being DP and enjoying 50-50 sharing with Uhuru for 10yrs . Bar Moi - Ruto knows how to use money in politics, Raila and Kibaki are just too "stingy" to understand what money can do for you in politics. That leverage will come from Ruto being such a fearful and consummate politician Uhuru would dread starting a fight by even suggesting Ruto is not the annointed one. His gov will basically become impossible to govern if he attempted to short-change Ruto post 2022. That leverage come with thousands of Kikuyus settled in RV....who are living in an "uneasy" peace thanks to Jubilee. Any "shafting" of Ruto will bare old wounds open and that is not something anybody wants. And the most important leverage of course is the fact that Ruto & Uhuru do actually get along very well.

Now when it come to Kikuyu or GEMA. I think you need to understand they have also huge leverage. They control anything btw 25-30% of political vote. But unlike previous constitution , you have to nail it 50% plus one, you need a coalition. The new kikuyu upstart will have to nail the whole of GEMA and get somebody else who will support him..get another 20%..from maybe only Raila?. That won't be easy. That cannot be done in few days...definitely impossible without Uhuru support.

So yeah many ambitious kikuyu political upstarts will try to leverage GEMA's & their natural allies (like part of Gusii) nearly 30% and go for it...but I don't see any evidence they'll succeed!

My impeccable punditry (see previous records ) tells me 1) Uhuru is shoe in for 2017 2) Ruto is shoe in for 2022. When I get evidence otherwise (beyond mere wishes) then I'll change my mind.

Pundit

Then explain this:

1. Why didn't GEMA follow Kibaki's plan to launch MaDVD?
2. Why did Michuki openly and defiantly announce Uhuru as the new Voice while Kibaki's agreements, understandings and pacts were ignored?

I do not know which Kikuyu will appear from the horizon. There are speculations but none well founded. In any case Uhuru emerged from nowhere to eclipse those we thought were ahead. So it is to be expected that others will emerge - even his own brother Muhoho.

Like I said, Kikuyus will look beyond Uhuru unless he is offering them what they want most: Keeping the presidency. Anybody who comes and says to hell with the Ruto agreement will be followed. He will have the numbers to cut a deal with some silly tribe in Kenya, may be even Luos or Luhyas. Didn't you just say there are no permanent enemies in politics?

Uhuru will not donate power. It will leave him once all he is promising is the departure of power from Kikuyuland. It will go to those or that promising to retain it. we have already seen that there will be many.

If he appoints his son, brother or wife that will keep him in power. It is the idea of taking the power out of Central that won't work.

He earned the power. And will lose it once he starts giving the presidency away. Moi had the power and started losing it big when he named Uhuru. Ruto took it when he stood up to Kikuyus and now is promising to bring it back. Its looking shaky now with all the cats being let out of the GEMA tent.

[Simanova]

Pundit

I do not fudge or twist facts:
1. I expressed doubts about the viability of a Kalenjin - Kikuyu alliance based on the vitriol from both sides. I was not, unlike you privy to any secret deals and horse trading behind the scenes leading to the Naivasha Betrayal by Ruto. In hindsight your subdued reaction to the Naivasha events should have alerted me to a deeper malaise. That I have admitted several times. It was a genius move that caught us unawares. That the people followed even surprised nay shocked me. Which led to
2. I withdrew from the 2013 elections. Look all over the web to find any comment or speculation about it and collect a prize if you find anything linked to me.

2 (above) was a protest against the stupidity of voters. It dawned on me that the events of 2008 were stopped prematurely before Kenyans learned their lessons. Political opportunism based on complete renunciation of all know values of human decency just for political office came out clearly.

You may now understand where I am coming from when I oppose Uhuru and Ruto. I detest the fact that they made nonsense of the new constitution and have savaged it even more after seizing power.

Kibaki was not a politician and we should not waste time discussing someone so inept. If Raila was not such a flawed politician - he would already had been PORK.

We can go on and on..about Ruto plan..like we did in pre-2013 and it panned out like I told you as earlier as 2008. You are just going to come up with more theories without even acknowledging all of your theories have basically bombed. While I predicted UhuRuto would form a coalition way back in 2008 and win 2013 - April 2008 to be precise- just after horrendous PEV- and it panned out exactly like it did.

[Simanova]

We can go on and on. It won't end until perhaps September 2017.

The bottom line here is tribalism. Kalenjins came to the rescue of Kikuyus in 2013. They had run out of tribes to cheat and dump.

You are telling me that you have figured out a formula or an antidote to this. We just have to wait and see.

Kibaki was not a politician and we should not waste time discussing someone so inept. If Raila was not such a flawed politician - he would already had been PORK.

We can go on and on..about Ruto plan..like we did in pre-2013 and it panned out like I told you as earlier as 2008. You are just going to come up with more theories without even acknowledging all of your theories have basically bombed. While I predicted UhuRuto would form a coalition way back in 2008 and win 2013 - April 2008 to be precise- just after horrendous PEV- and it panned out exactly like it did.

About 10yrs later...and here we go again.

What will make Ruto 2022 PORK is the political LEVERAGE he will wield. That leverage will come from controlling Jubilee as this big party with more than 200mps and governors all over the country. Ruto is dumping URP so he can create a big party like KANU or ODM by design - Uhuru doesn't need a party -- and once the party is created - Ruto will fund and campaign for many MPs--he'll basically own the party -whoever will try to splinter it --will at best take 1/4 of the party. That leverage will come from having support in Kalenjin + pastoral + coastal +small tribes plus Jubilee allied Mps here and there. That leverage will come from having enough money, patronage and power that come with being DP and enjoying 50-50 sharing with Uhuru for 10yrs . Bar Moi - Ruto knows how to use money in politics, Raila and Kibaki are just too "stingy" to understand what money can do for you in politics. That leverage will come from Ruto being such a fearful and consummate politician Uhuru would dread starting a fight by even suggesting Ruto is not the annointed one. His gov will basically become impossible to govern if he attempted to short-change Ruto post 2022. That leverage come with thousands of Kikuyus settled in RV....who are living in an "uneasy" peace thanks to Jubilee. Any "shafting" of Ruto will bare old wounds open and that is not something anybody wants. And the most important leverage of course is the fact that Ruto & Uhuru do actually get along very well.

Now when it come to Kikuyu or GEMA. I think you need to understand they have also huge leverage. They control anything btw 25-30% of political vote. But unlike previous constitution , you have to nail it 50% plus one, you need a coalition. The new kikuyu upstart will have to nail the whole of GEMA and get somebody else who will support him..get another 20%..from maybe only Raila?. That won't be easy. That cannot be done in few days...definitely impossible without Uhuru support.

So yeah many ambitious kikuyu political upstarts will try to leverage GEMA's & their natural allies (like part of Gusii) nearly 30% and go for it...but I don't see any evidence they'll succeed!

My impeccable punditry (see previous records ) tells me 1) Uhuru is shoe in for 2017 2) Ruto is shoe in for 2022. When I get evidence otherwise (beyond mere wishes) then I'll change my mind.

[Simanova]

Pundit

Those Kikuyus we speak to and trust me we reach quite high are very candid. They need Ruto alive up to the moment the last person votes. After that he is expendable. So if he is planning on all these things, he better hire a lot of loyal food testers.

What will make Ruto 2022 PORK is the political LEVERAGE he will wield. That leverage will come from controlling Jubilee as this big party with more than 200mps and governors all over the country. Ruto is dumping URP so he can create a big party like KANU or ODM by design - Uhuru doesn't need a party -- and once the party is created - Ruto will fund and campaign for many MPs--he'll basically own the party -whoever will try to splinter it --will at best take 1/4 of the party. That leverage will come from having support in Kalenjin + pastoral + coastal +small tribes plus Jubilee allied Mps here and there. That leverage will come from having enough money, patronage and power that come with being DP and enjoying 50-50 sharing with Uhuru for 10yrs . Bar Moi - Ruto knows how to use money in politics, Raila and Kibaki are just too "stingy" to understand what money can do for you in politics. That leverage will come from Ruto being such a fearful and consummate politician Uhuru would dread starting a fight by even suggesting Ruto is not the annointed one. His gov will basically become impossible to govern if he attempted to short-change Ruto post 2022. That leverage come with thousands of Kikuyus settled in RV....who are living in an "uneasy" peace thanks to Jubilee. Any "shafting" of Ruto will bare old wounds open and that is not something anybody wants. And the most important leverage of course is the fact that Ruto & Uhuru do actually get along very well.

Now when it come to Kikuyu or GEMA. I think you need to understand they have also huge leverage. They control anything btw 25-30% of political vote. But unlike previous constitution , you have to nail it 50% plus one, you need a coalition. The new kikuyu upstart will have to nail the whole of GEMA and get somebody else who will support him..get another 20%..from maybe only Raila?. That won't be easy. That cannot be done in few days...definitely impossible without Uhuru support.

So yeah many ambitious kikuyu political upstarts will try to leverage GEMA's & their natural allies (like part of Gusii) nearly 30% and go for it...but I don't see any evidence they'll succeed!

My impeccable punditry (see previous records ) tells me 1) Uhuru is shoe in for 2017 2) Ruto is shoe in for 2022. When I get evidence otherwise (beyond mere wishes) then I'll change my mind.

Pundit

Then explain this:

1. Why didn't GEMA follow Kibaki's plan to launch MaDVD?
2. Why did Michuki openly and defiantly announce Uhuru as the new Voice while Kibaki's agreements, understandings and pacts were ignored?

I do not know which Kikuyu will appear from the horizon. There are speculations but none well founded. In any case Uhuru emerged from nowhere to eclipse those we thought were ahead. So it is to be expected that others will emerge - even his own brother Muhoho.

Like I said, Kikuyus will look beyond Uhuru unless he is offering them what they want most: Keeping the presidency. Anybody who comes and says to hell with the Ruto agreement will be followed. He will have the numbers to cut a deal with some silly tribe in Kenya, may be even Luos or Luhyas. Didn't you just say there are no permanent enemies in politics?

Uhuru will not donate power. It will leave him once all he is promising is the departure of power from Kikuyuland. It will go to those or that promising to retain it. we have already seen that there will be many.

If he appoints his son, brother or wife that will keep him in power. It is the idea of taking the power out of Central that won't work.

He earned the power. And will lose it once he starts giving the presidency away. Moi had the power and started losing it big when he named Uhuru. Ruto took it when he stood up to Kikuyus and now is promising to bring it back. Its looking shaky now with all the cats being let out of the GEMA tent.

[Simanova]

Looks like some votes are escaping the jubilee net contrary to what you said:

http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2016/06/28/kirwa-joins-ford-k-says-he-will-run-for-senate_c1376211?platform=hootsuite

[Simanova]

Pundit

we have to ignore this? The ordinary Kikuyu must also ignore this?

[Simanova]

[RV Pundit]

When did I ever listen to ordinary Luo or Kikuyu or Kalenjin. Who the hell give a damn about what they think. You listen to political leaders with influence. Again not some washed up dude like Kirwa..who is resigning from NFK for the third time I think this year alone..hoping to curry favour with Luhya votes in TransZoia.

I am not privy to any secrets or any inner workings. I just Know who to listen to. Right now don't waste time listening to Luo..listen to Raila..Kalenjin..listen to Ruto...and GEMA..listen to Uhuru..the rest can make noise till cows come back..after they have had their water....where frogs were making noise too.

How do we listen to Uhuru or Ruto or Raila... by listening keenly to their KEY ALLIES. We are spending acres here discussing somebody called Paul Njoroge who we never heard of and who apparently made to senate on account on suing TNA and going in for being disabled? Or are will also listening to people like Munya and Kabogo and Isaac Ruto who are facing hell on their counties..and trying to intimidate Jubilee for free tickets..or find a way to escape being knocked out in nomination phase.

Uhuru has spoken very clearly to the nation. It Ruto in 2022. What more do you want to hear. What the ordinary kikuyu think? Who cares? When did that matter? Who cares what I as RV Pundit think -- NOBODY. I haven't earn the right to be heard. Ruto speak for Kalenjin...if I disagree...too bad for me.

Pundit

we have to ignore this? The ordinary Kikuyu must also ignore this?

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

It's one of those threads that can lead to endless back and forth.  2022 Ruto will either perform magic and get GEMA behind him.  Or he won't.

[Simanova]

Pundit

This is somewhat contradictory especially when you then want Kabogo, Munya and Njoroge ignored.

When did I ever listen to ordinary Luo or Kikuyu or Kalenjin. Who the hell give a damn about what they think. You listen to political leaders with influence. Again not some washed up dude like Kirwa..who is resigning from NFK for the third time I think this year alone..hoping to curry favour with Luhya votes in TransZoia.

I am not privy to any secrets or any inner workings. I just Know who to listen to. Right now don't waste time listening to Luo..listen to Raila..Kalenjin..listen to Ruto...and GEMA..listen to Uhuru..the rest can make noise till cows come back..after they have had their water....where frogs were making noise too.

How do we listen to Uhuru or Ruto or Raila... by listening keenly to their KEY ALLIES. We are spending acres here discussing somebody called Paul Njoroge who we never heard of and who apparently made to senate on account on suing TNA and going in for being disabled? Or are will also listening to people like Munya and Kabogo and Isaac Ruto who are facing hell on their counties..and trying to intimidate Jubilee for free tickets..or find a way to escape being knocked out in nomination phase.

Uhuru has spoken very clearly to the nation. It Ruto in 2022. What more do you want to hear. What the ordinary kikuyu think? Who cares? When did that matter? Who cares what I as RV Pundit think -- NOBODY. I haven't earn the right to be heard. Ruto speak for Kalenjin...if I disagree...too bad for me.

Pundit

we have to ignore this? The ordinary Kikuyu must also ignore this?