I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan

[Omollo]

• Tweet

With Machar now assured of total support from Sudan, he is not about to accept number three. Kiir has not accepted the fact that his position is precarious. Both sides still see a solution in war. If they impose sanctions, Machar would be the least affected as he will continue getting support from El Bashir regardless. Kiir is relying on Uganda and Uhuru Kenyatta.

The only danger I see is the war spilling in to Uganda and Kenya because of meddling.

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Kiir-Why-Machar-will-not-be-my-Number-2/-/1064/2636950/-/7sx1q/-/index.html

[RV Pundit]

Kiir seem to claim Kenya support Machar?

[Omollo]

It is the confusion in Foreign Affairs you identified several weeks ago that is causing this problem. Kenya has not made it clear where she stands thus we have the talks taking place in Tanzania and Ethiopia which are seen as neutral despite Kenya's long history with these guys. Both Kiir and Machar own property in Kenya as did Mabior and every South Sudanese leader.

Kiir seem to claim Kenya support Machar?

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

kamwana is against Riek Machar if memory serves me right. 

I also doubt if Machar is moving to live in Juba anytime soon anyway, as long as Kiir is hositing Museveni's soldiers.  Neither of them signed the agreement in good faith.  Perhaps a few more thousands of lives might make them see the need.  Who knows?

[MOON Ki]

kamwana is against Riek Machar if memory serves me right. 

I also doubt if Machar is moving to live in Juba anytime soon anyway, as long as Kiir is hositing Museveni's soldiers.  Neither of them signed the agreement in good faith.  Perhaps a few more thousands of lives might make them see the need.  Who knows?

Riek Machar or Riek Marach?  Remains to be seen.

[Mr Mansfield.]

I think Dinkas are double the population of Nuer which means if we were to go for elections,Ricket machar would be given a thrashing,

No east African leader is interested with machar,you know south Sudan feeds China with crude oil and China being a darling of the east African leaders in mega projects has to pull strings,

Without Prejudice.

[MOON Ki]

Omollo:

You were right.

Incredible, though.   These guys fight Bashir for years and years.  Finally, they get their own country.  And then they start to fight each other.   

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/africa/South-Sudan-peace-talks-collapse/-/1066/2644956/-/6xn4lkz/-/index.html

[Omollo]

Oil is a curse in its own right!

Omollo:

You were right.

Incredible, though.   These guys fight Bashir for years and years.  Finally, they get their own country.  And then they start to fight each other.   

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/africa/South-Sudan-peace-talks-collapse/-/1066/2644956/-/6xn4lkz/-/index.html

[MOON Ki]

Oil is a curse in its own right!

Could be.  Still, as an "average fellow", here's what I would be thinking:

* After so many years of fighting, it would be nice to have some time-out.

* Let's not go the "traditional African way", let's learn a few lessons from history.   

Is "Government vs. Rebels" an absolute necessity in African governance?

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Omollo:

You were right.

Incredible, though.   These guys fight Bashir for years and years.  Finally, they get their own country.  And then they start to fight each other.   

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/africa/South-Sudan-peace-talks-collapse/-/1066/2644956/-/6xn4lkz/-/index.html

The fight with Bashir was merely a postponement for the tribal fights.  Once Bashir was out of the picture, they figured they have all the time in the world to sort their issues out. 

I read somewhere that the AU blames the usual bazungus for the mess in South Sudan.  That this would not be happening if they had not taken the secession route.

There is an absence of imagination in how the South Sudan man goes about his business.  Maybe if he is left alone, in 20 years time he might figure something out like the Somalis.

[MOON Ki]

Here we go: even with 50 years of continental history to learn from, Kiir is determined that his country must go the African way---the hard way. 

" "

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/africa/I-will-not-share-power-S-Sudan-leader-tells-rally/-/1066/2658326/-/nrywglz/-/index.html

[Reticent Solipsist]

Here we go: even with 50 years of continental history to learn from, Kiir is determined that his country must go the African way---the hard way. 

" "

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/africa/I-will-not-share-power-S-Sudan-leader-tells-rally/-/1066/2658326/-/nrywglz/-/index.html

An African president nay ruler decoded: he is simple, reflexive, and emotional. Save for Nyerere and Mandela, and probably Senghor, there are other decent ones, e.g, Quett Masire, Chissano, Kufuor, Mkapa, Pohamba. The rest have the psychological and emotional profile of a Salva Kiir.

[Omollo]

Resembles Kibaki's appointment of half a cabinet as the country bled....

South Sudan's parliament voted on Tuesday to extend President Salva Kiir's term in office by three years, after elections due to be held in June were called off and negotiations to end more than a year of internal conflict broke up without agreement.

Speaker Manasseh Magok Rundial said parliament overwhelmingly approved Kiir's extension, as well as similar three-year prolongation of parliament's own term. Thousands of people have been killed and more than a million have fled their homes since fighting between supporters of Kiir and former vice president Riek Machar erupted in the world's newest nation in December 2013.

Talks between the two groups broke up nearly three weeks ago with no deal and no future date set for their resumption, prompting the mediator to say leaders on both sides were failing in their duty to find peace. The 270 members of parliament present voted on Tuesday to amend the country's transitional 2011 constitution to extend the presidential and parliamentary term until July 9, 2018, with 264 members in favour and a handful opposing it.

In a roadmap to peace agreed in February, Kiir and Machar had agreed the outlines of a power-sharing deal, and they had hoped to reach a final accord by the end of March. But the talks appear stalled, and fighting continues. The army said it had repulsed an attack by Machar's rebel forces in southern Unity State on Tuesday. "Rebel forces clashed with SPLA (army) forces in Nhialdiu and Bentiu but SPLA defeated them. At the moment we are yet to establish the exact number of casualties," army spokesman Col. Philip Aguer said. In February, government spokesman Michael Makuei said that the proposal to extend Kiir and parliament's terms was aimed at avoiding any power vacuum in the event that the government fails to reach a permanent deal with rebels. The lawmakers however rejected extension of the life-term of state governors, saying the Transitional Constitution did not refer to them. "Our constitution only talks of parliament and presidency, so it is up to the resident either let them continue or not in the coming transitional period," said Onyoti Adigo, parliamentary minority leader.
Read more at: http://standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000156046/south-sudan-parliament-extends-salva-kiir-s-term-by-3-years/

[MOON Ki]

"South Sudan's parliament voted on Tuesday to extend President Salva Kiir's term in office by three years, after elections due to be held in June were called off and negotiations to end more than a year of internal conflict broke up without agreement."

Amazing, this Kiir fellow and his followers.    It's not very often that a country makes such a clear choice for a full-scale civil war.   We now await Machar's full-hearted "acceptance" of this invitation to mayhem.

The African head can be a very hard one.

[RV Pundit]

Sanctions should be imposed on Kiir. That should happen at UNSC level.

[Omollo]

News from the forgotten war.

While Kiir applied the Dinka stamp on every SS institution, the other guy has been arming thanks to the Mother Government in the North and has decided to remind him of the little detail of the unfinished war.

Kiir is not interested in peace if he can exclude the non-Dinkas and still be hailed as "President" wearing his designer suits and American hand made shoes.

This sign tell it all and those hiring a bus at the airport for 2 millions a month (better buses plying Mombasa - Kisumu don't raise that much) should expect such a sign: Kikuyus .... Luos ... Luhyas .... Others.

See how Dr. Riek "Macharia" has put on the kilos. If I didn't know better I would say he is overeating. In Africa men put on weight with every million dollars they make. War has been good to Macharia.

Compare with the emaciated moving skeletons that he uses as hostages as he makes demands in their name...

[Simanova]

This country is dead.

Gunfire erupted near the presidential palace in South Sudan's capital Juba on Friday, in the latest blow to a shaky peace deal in the world's youngest country.

President Salva Kiir and his deputy, former rebel leader Riek Machar, were both at the compound preparing to address the media in a show of solidarity when sporadic gunfire and artillery was heard outside for around 30 minutes before spreading to other parts of the city.

There was confusion as the shooting died down, with Kiir telling reporters: "What is happening outside is something we cannot explain to you."

James Gatdet Dak, a spokesperson for Machar, said in a statement, "the heavy fighting which erupted... has subsided."

"The two leaders are calling for calm, hopefully there will be calm," he said.

The fresh violence came a day after five soldiers were killed in a shootout with former rebels in Juba, just as the country prepares to mark its fifth anniversary of independence from Sudan on Saturday.

It was believed to be the first time the army and former rebels had clashed in the capital since both established positions there as part of the August 2015 peace agreement.

Army spokesman Lul Ruai Koang said the five soldiers, all loyal to Kiir, were killed and two others wounded in the shootout at a checkpoint in the city's Gudele neighbourhood.

Gudele was the scene of tribal massacres at the outbreak of the war in December 2013.

A UN worker was also reportedly injured in a separate shooting and a US embassy vehicle was also shot at, according to Nyarji Roman, a spokesman for rebel leader turned vice president Machar.

(READ: Little to celebrate as South Sudan turns five)

'ISOLATED INCIDENT'

The peace process has all but stalled, with hardliners on both sides uninterested in a negotiated settlement and mistrust and bad faith characterising relations within the unity government.

Fighting has continued outside the capital with the most recent serious clashes taking place in the town of Wau late last month.

The peace deal was supposed to end a civil war that began when Kiir accused Machar of plotting a coup.

But Machar did not return to the capital until April, and fighting has continued despite the establishment of a unity government.

Roman said Thursday's shooting began when two vehicles used by Machar's bodyguards were stopped by soldiers.

He said two former rebels were also injured in the clash.

Koang blamed the former rebels for the "hostile fire" but insisted it was "an isolated incident".

Tens of thousands of people have died in more than two years of civil war, close to three million have been forced from their homes and nearly five million survive on emergency food rations.

The country is also facing an economic crisis with the currency collapsing and inflation spiralling out of control.

South Sudan's mainstay oil industry is in tatters and regional towns have been razed.

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/africa/Gunfire-erupts-in-South-Sudan-capital/-/1066/3286630/-/1wp3m1/-/index.html

[Simanova]

Speaking of a Third Force.....

South Sudan President Salvar Kiir, VP Riek Machar holed up inside the presidential palace. Outside, sustained gunfire being reported.

[Simanova]

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article59548

[Omollo]