Omollo cord majority counties versus Jubilee counties..battle for referendum

[RV Pundit]

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Do you have any list.

I would think Western(4);Nyanza(6);Coast(5--minus lamu),Ukambani(3),Nairobi are straight CORD counties; possibly Garissa and Wajir; Possibly Turkana.

So cord start with 20 nearly sure counties.

I would think Jubilee has Central (5);Eastern(3);RV (9) (Bomet,Baringo,Kericho,Nandi, UG,Nakuru,West Pokot,EMC,Laikipia);Mandera

Jubilee start 17 counties

Knife-edge would be Tranzoia/Narok/Kajiado/Samburu/Isiolo/Marsabit.

CORD need to win 4 out 7 of the knife-edge counties. I think Jubilee will take Kajiado...CORD will take Isiolo/Marsabit/Tranzoia...samburu and narok will be the decider.

[Omollo]

I have not counted because we haven't reached there. I have been counting the signatures and I think by the end of next week we would be heading towards the target of 5 million. All depends on what happened this weekend.

1. Kakamega
2. Bungoma
3. Busia
4. Busia
5. Vihiga
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6. Siaya
7. Kisumu
8. Migori
9. Homa Bay
10. Kisii
11. Nyamira
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12. Mombasa
13. Kwale
14. Kilifi
15. Tana River
16. Taita Taveta
17. Lamu (we think Post Mpeketoni has made it easy to grab)
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18. Kitui
19. Machakos
20. Makueni
21. Trans Nzoia

We expect a rebellion against Jubilee in about 5 RV counties.

[RV Pundit]

Seem like a solid list of MCAs controlled by CORD. With 21--there is rich picking in Matusa+NEP.

If by rv you mean kalenjin counties..that won't happen...except for pesa mashinani.

[Omollo]

Seem like a solid list of MCAs controlled by CORD. With 21--there is rich picking in Matusa+NEP.

If by rv you mean kalenjin counties..that won't happen...except for pesa mashinani.

We shall trade off with the Counties. We support their crusade on money and they support at least one of our concerns - say IEBC. Regional balance and may be we offer them the Chairmanship of the new IEBC. There is a lot to trade.

NEP is now under very very heavy TNA bribing pressure. I have left it out because we shall know the full extent of this in a week.

[RV Pundit]

Counties demand for more money and power i think is  a shoe-in at MCA level. The rest [iebc] will face hurdles. You have nothing against the IEBC. I can understand regional balance and the other issues...

When it come to MOAS of the really vote..it will be a knife-edge if CORD wins AMANI's 4%...then it will be down to 50:50 on their issues.

Governors referendum will be shoe in.


I am hoping we have multiple question format.

We shall trade off with the Counties. We support their crusade on money and they support at least one of our concerns - say IEBC. Regional balance and may be we offer them the Chairmanship of the new IEBC. There is a lot to trade.

NEP is now under very very heavy TNA bribing pressure. I have left it out because we shall know the full extent of this in a week.

[Omollo]

On the contrary we have a lot against the IEBC

1. We need ALL results read at the polling stations and certified there;
2. Biometric voting should either be mandatory or not. Personally I think voting should be electronic with a paper trail. If the paper trail is missing then the results should be null and void for that polling station
3. All elections cannot be held on one day but have to be staggered. MCAs, Women Reps and MPs on one day and Senators and President on another. Other combinations are welcome
4. The current Commission should fold up and go home. The huge losses they caused should have seen them resign. They lost credibility
5. In event of a petition, the time used up hunting IEBC to provide crucial documents shall be deducted from the two week petition deadline period.

[Omollo]

Pundit

I am sure you know we have the numbers to win. The hurdle is the MCAs. Once we pass that one, Jubilee better sit down and talk to us. I particularly hope URP will see the light

Read this story:

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Uhuru-Kenyatta-Jubilee-Governors-Referendum-Pesa-Mashinani/-/1064/2444324/-/150yxi3z/-/index.html