Author Topic: Politics of betrayal  (Read 662 times)

Offline Sivel

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Politics of betrayal
« on: March 16, 2022, 08:09:09 PM »
The original sin in Kenya's politics is betrayal. This was carried out by Jomo Kenyatta and his Kiambu Mafia against Jaramogi and other leaders such as Mboya. In fact, they got so arrogant that they even started excluding other Kikuyus, claiming that Uthamaki will never cross River Chania.

What they weren't prepared for was Mzee's frailty and eventual death before they could work out amongst themselves who should lead next. Njonjo did a fast one on them and ensured Moi ascended to the Presidency, expecting to control him. But as Kangata was telling Murathe the other day regarding Raila who they expect to be their puppet, once the balance of power changes, the Kingmakers are some of the first casualties as a new occupant consolidates his power. So Njonjo was thrown out.

In those times, Kikuyus were really hated due to Kenyatta's exclusion of other communities, and Moi was quite popular among them. Unfortunately, his mismanagement of government extended to all, and by 2002 was extremely unpopular.

Now fast forward to 2002 and Kibaki rides to power on a coalition of sundry opposition parties. While I think entertaining Raila's MoU to be Prime Minister was a mistake, Kibaki did himself no favours by making his government to Kikuyu centred. The Mafia was back, only this time it was Mt Kenya and not just Kiambu. Read Michela Wrong's It's Our Turn to Eat and you'll see my point.

By 2005 going to 2007, Kikuyus were isolated in government. Of course Raila saw this and capitalised on it, but it would not have been such an issue had Kibaki led a more inclusive government. The economy had grown, but political grievances still abounded.

Then 2007 happened. According to some sources including Michela Wrong's book, violence against Kikuyus was planned whether or not Raila won. In Rift Valley, people had seen the chance to finally get their land back which they felt had been stolen by the Kikuyu diaspora with the help of Kenyatta after he stole their land back home.

Fast forward to 2013, UhuRuto came together. The proletariat Kikuyu saw this as a peace treaty, and voted the ticket to leadership both times.

Now to today. I think Uhuru misunderstood his original handshake with Ruto. Most Kikuyus are uncomfortable breaking that covenant for what they see as Uhuru's selfish reasons. Uhuru on his part, still thinks that political kingpins can be followed unquestioningly like Raila is, but is realising that it's not true.

The way 2022 goes will affect lots of politicians. Kikuyu hegemony cultivated by Jomo Kenyatta, I argue, is the reason why we have tribal voting in Kenya, which is not seen in regional countries. Most other communities saw what the Kikuyus were doing, and were told by their leaders that if they don't stand by them the Kikuyus will finish them. Kikuyus on the other hand were fed the same, that if another tribe takes power they'll be annihilated (and given the example of Moi).

In this election, Kikuyus seem poised to vote Ruto. This is more significant because, unlike Luos in 2002 who were told by Raila to vote for Kibaki, the Kikuyus are doing it in defiance of their political leader in power, Uhuru. Other tribes will notice.

The era of political leaders betraying other leaders and expecting unquestionable support from their bases is at an end. While this election will have some aspect of tribal voting, Kikuyus, I think, will be at the vanguard of tribeless politics, having started it at independence. And they're the only ones who could have ended it.

Offline Sivel

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Re: Politics of betrayal
« Reply #1 on: March 16, 2022, 08:20:14 PM »
Also on betrayal, I think Azimio won a pyrrhic victory by signing Kalonzo. They pushed him to a corner to make him accept to support them, and did not even give him any position he could sell to his Kambas, who are now fatigued with supporting Raila. To make it worse, they sponsored Kamba governors to put pressure on him and told him even if he doesn't join them, it won't matter because they have the governors.

The issue with that is that the Kamba electorate can see the betrayal. They will be split. And not just that, Kalonzo himself of late doesn't seem content in Azimio. He admitted he wasn't offered the DP post, and keeps reiterating he was betrayed but still said Raila tosha a third time. He doesn't sound enthusiastic, and I highly doubt he will mobilise Kambas to vote for Azimio.

Watch the interview. This guy's heart haiko Azimio. He'll campaign for them but lukewarmly. He doesn't care if Raila wins or loses.


Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Politics of betrayal
« Reply #2 on: March 16, 2022, 08:59:28 PM »
I think the genesis is British high handed crushing of mau mau that isolated and punished Kikuyus..out of that Kikuyus felt entitled to state largesse.. although they had lost the war to the British..they had been brave to fight and therefore the Kikuyus felt they owned the 1st Republic.The betrayal was non issues..for them they had suffered greatly and deserved to run Kenya as reward for shedding blood and tears for Kenya.This arrogance would persist until the shock of 2007 when Kikuyus were being hunted like stray dogs all over kenya.That was turning point.kikuyus at that point realized they had created a monster that was threatening to consume them and accepted the rebirth of 2nd republic with devolution and new constitution.The current scenario where they have gone rogue against elite attempts to go back old days of  arrogance is the reality of 2nd republic..a shared prosperity and refusal to cultivate the seed of their destruction.. having seen it in 2007 where from Mombasa to Busia they were being hunted, killed,raped or beaten

Offline Sivel

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Re: Politics of betrayal
« Reply #3 on: March 17, 2022, 01:12:04 PM »
More drama from Kalonzo
Also on betrayal, I think Azimio won a pyrrhic victory by signing Kalonzo. They pushed him to a corner to make him accept to support them, and did not even give him any position he could sell to his Kambas, who are now fatigued with supporting Raila. To make it worse, they sponsored Kamba governors to put pressure on him and told him even if he doesn't join them, it won't matter because they have the governors.

The issue with that is that the Kamba electorate can see the betrayal. They will be split. And not just that, Kalonzo himself of late doesn't seem content in Azimio. He admitted he wasn't offered the DP post, and keeps reiterating he was betrayed but still said Raila tosha a third time. He doesn't sound enthusiastic, and I highly doubt he will mobilise Kambas to vote for Azimio.

Watch the interview. This guy's heart haiko Azimio. He'll campaign for them but lukewarmly. He doesn't care if Raila wins or loses.


Offline Sivel

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Re: Politics of betrayal
« Reply #4 on: March 17, 2022, 01:20:00 PM »
Yeah. The Kikuyu elite were up there with their heads in the clouds, but this time most have been brought back down to earth. Only Uhuru who has surrounded himself with sycophants is still in denial. After this election, Mt Kenya leaders will behave having seen Uhuru being "shaved without water"

I think the genesis is British high handed crushing of mau mau that isolated and punished Kikuyus..out of that Kikuyus felt entitled to state largesse.. although they had lost the war to the British..they had been brave to fight and therefore the Kikuyus felt they owned the 1st Republic.The betrayal was non issues..for them they had suffered greatly and deserved to run Kenya as reward for shedding blood and tears for Kenya.This arrogance would persist until the shock of 2007 when Kikuyus were being hunted like stray dogs all over kenya.That was turning point.kikuyus at that point realized they had created a monster that was threatening to consume them and accepted the rebirth of 2nd republic with devolution and new constitution.The current scenario where they have gone rogue against elite attempts to go back old days of  arrogance is the reality of 2nd republic..a shared prosperity and refusal to cultivate the seed of their destruction.. having seen it in 2007 where from Mombasa to Busia they were being hunted, killed,raped or beaten

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Politics of betrayal
« Reply #5 on: March 17, 2022, 01:27:14 PM »
He is starting to smell the coffee. I think he had overrated his influence of Mt kenya - and I thought like Pajero - that Limuru or Sagana conference - couple with video presentation of projects done.
Yeah. The Kikuyu elite were up there with their heads in the clouds, but this time most have been brought back down to earth. Only Uhuru who has surrounded himself with sycophants is still in denial. After this election, Mt Kenya leaders will behave having seen Uhuru being "shaved without water"

Offline Kadudu

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Re: Politics of betrayal
« Reply #6 on: March 17, 2022, 04:18:49 PM »
I doubt it. Mt Kenya leaders are out to retain power through the backdoor aka kumi ya Kalejin na kumi yetu. It is taken for granted the DP for Ruto will be from Mt Kenya and should take over if Ruto agrees to leave in 2032.
My advice to Kikuyus, you will not be able to control Ruto once he is in SH. The man will be free to form new alliances. Ruto can nominate a Mt Kenya DP and I can assure he will not make the same mistake like Uhuru to say kumi yangu na kumi yake. Ruto will have all options open. He can form a formidable alliance with any other ethnic group including the Luo with the absence of Raila.
My take is Mt Kenya leaders and its people have not learnt anything yet. They will learn after August 2022.

Yeah. The Kikuyu elite were up there with their heads in the clouds, but this time most have been brought back down to earth. Only Uhuru who has surrounded himself with sycophants is still in denial. After this election, Mt Kenya leaders will behave having seen Uhuru being "shaved without water"

Offline Sivel

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Re: Politics of betrayal
« Reply #7 on: March 17, 2022, 05:50:49 PM »
I think what most people are failing to realise is that Kikuyus don't care. So long as he treats people well especially in their businesses, most Kikuyus won't care that he's forming alliances with other tribes. The only cause for worry is if he persecutes Kikuyus, which he won't be stupid enough to do. Uhuru's mistake was to think like you, that ethnic loyalty can survive messing up people economically. Raila has that power, but Uhuru learnt to his sorrow that he didn't.

I doubt it. Mt Kenya leaders are out to retain power through the backdoor aka kumi ya Kalejin na kumi yetu. It is taken for granted the DP for Ruto will be from Mt Kenya and should take over if Ruto agrees to leave in 2032.
My advice to Kikuyus, you will not be able to control Ruto once he is in SH. The man will be free to form new alliances. Ruto can nominate a Mt Kenya DP and I can assure he will not make the same mistake like Uhuru to say kumi yangu na kumi yake. Ruto will have all options open. He can form a formidable alliance with any other ethnic group including the Luo with the absence of Raila.
My take is Mt Kenya leaders and its people have not learnt anything yet. They will learn after August 2022.

Yeah. The Kikuyu elite were up there with their heads in the clouds, but this time most have been brought back down to earth. Only Uhuru who has surrounded himself with sycophants is still in denial. After this election, Mt Kenya leaders will behave having seen Uhuru being "shaved without water"

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Politics of betrayal
« Reply #8 on: March 17, 2022, 05:54:40 PM »
My friend - you cannot rule comfortably without Kikuyus
That is why Moi appointed only Kikuyus as VP - including Kinuthia Saitoti.
Kikuyus have economic power - and also control Nairobi - they can sabotage your gov.
Ruto knows this - and he knows once he agree with Kikuyus - then everything is easy.
You dont want a formidable enemy like Kikuyu...unless you're an idiot.
Ruto will be interested in stable peaceful country - and he will indeed co-opt Luos post Raila - and will ensure everyone is onboard almost
So he can concentrate on other stuff - not be distracted by power struggles.
He will ensure development is shared equally.
That he will not compromised
Kikuyu leaders main problem has been their inward looking self-entitment.
Ruto will take them through WIN-WIN courses until they get it.
Most of them already get it - a few like Kuria still want to practise tribal inspired politics
It has to be good for Mandera, Turkana, Kiambu and Kisumu.
It cannot be 1Man 1Shilling or We are the BIG ones or Small ones.
It has to be fair to everyone - and that way Kikuyu will thrive because they are all over.
I doubt it. Mt Kenya leaders are out to retain power through the backdoor aka kumi ya Kalejin na kumi yetu. It is taken for granted the DP for Ruto will be from Mt Kenya and should take over if Ruto agrees to leave in 2032.
My advice to Kikuyus, you will not be able to control Ruto once he is in SH. The man will be free to form new alliances. Ruto can nominate a Mt Kenya DP and I can assure he will not make the same mistake like Uhuru to say kumi yangu na kumi yake. Ruto will have all options open. He can form a formidable alliance with any other ethnic group including the Luo with the absence of Raila.
My take is Mt Kenya leaders and its people have not learnt anything yet. They will learn after August 2022.