what is going on in Somali

[Stockguru]

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It seems they have Mlolongo type of contentious elections. Something I saw being referred as Indirect Elections. There are reports from Think Tanks that predict that if these elections are disputed then Somali will descend into Chaos. Seems Uncle Sam boys (Somali Americans that went back to Somali) have really messed up Somali. It looks like this decade the Horn of Africa is descending into another level of Anarchy and bloodshed. From Khartoum to Kenya it is all a Trail of Blood. If the great lakes erupt again then we may see the Whole east and central Africa go back to stone ages. We know Museveni is getting there in Age. Kagame is only one Pneumonia from the grave.

It is seems the world will have Berlin Size wars all over to keep refugees out. I do not think there is a country out there that hasn't put a wall to keep others out

[Omollo]

Somalia will survive. It's gonna emerge stronger than Kenya because it's almost done with the quintessential requirement for a unified nation- civil war!

Kenya is still trying to get her civil war and will in a short while when Tigrayans will complain of bring finished. Groups that dominate others by having been lucky to gain state control usually react badly to attempts to equitably share resources as we saw in the 80s.

Uganda has gone through a war. But not enough parties participated. That left the winner to perpetuate the same injustices that led to war in the first place. Look at Lebanon for a modern example of stalemate leading to peace. Others call it balanced terror. You attack they reply. You try to expand territory; they repulse and try to take yours. You make peace. That didn't happen in Uganda.

In Rwanda it was just a coup as an invasion from Uganda. The Tutsi organized to overthrow the Hutu. Nothing there. There's no counter weight force to lead to a negotiated peace. Kagame has imposed his will on the Hutu, rigs elections, destroyed their oligarchs and set up his own (what pundit is advising Ruto to do in Kenya to Uthamakistanis).

In time The Hutu will reorganize and take power. Hopefully then a strong Tutsi resistance will force concessions and bring about the benefits of civil war: the realization that war is mutually assured destruction.

The real problem is in South Sudan and DRC. The bloodshed will shock the world. They have unlimited and unexploited resources which can sustain wars. Theirs will be longer and will spill over to neighbors stupid enough to get entangled. Kenya tasted a bit of it from Somalia. More is coming unless they leave quietly.

Burundi will remain a hutu stronghold. They won't let go.

[Stockguru]

Interesting take. You think Kenya will have a Civil War? I know the conditions are there. It looks like Kenyan elites are tone deaf to this reality. it is sad. Happy to hear that you think Somali is done with blood letting.

What happened in DRC just postoned future problems. A candidate won and had the prove that he won but Kabila and the world imposed that Toad Tshedeki. It was a momentous injustice to the People of Kongo. Yes, Burudi is Hutu play ground.. Good thing is that Burundi is too poor for people to care for it. Hutu is Rwanda will be back and will kill the have never done before. 

[Omollo]

 From a political realpolitik point of view a civil war is an equalizer. Often the participants crave for it. Each party says that's what is needed to fix the country. They often speak of it as a picnic: you go have fun and come back home to sleep. Well, this picnic can last 100 years and only your grandchildren or great grandchildren will end it.

But it works. All modern civilizations we admire today have gone through it. In the 90s I told a conference on democracy that as far as I was concerned, the so called islands of peace - Kenya and Ivory Coast  - are most likely to get embroiled in a civil war while the likes of Somalia emerge from theirs. There were incredulous murmurs. I'm proven right about Ivory Coast. Kenya has REFUSED to make fundamental changes to avoid civil war and is now helplessly hurtling down the precipice like a runaway train.

Kenya had a rare opportunity to avoid war. It had a vibrant economy with a booming private sector that dwarfed the state in employment.

Then Cronyism set in and it's only expanding. Private companies that were content to do their thing joined oligarchs to loot taxes and overburden citizens. Right now the tone deaf regime is busy singing how to further expand taxation to reach everyone. Businesses are being killed by KRA through corruption or just intimidation and harassment for shakedowns. The anger from owners of hardware's and wholesale shops is palpable.

The elite would hear nothing of ending the favoritism of ethnic oligarchs. Try telling them and they all out to drown you in propaganda and lies. But then few of them have lived in countries as they rush to war. The denial is replaced with shame as previously powerful people submit to former bus stop touts now war lords; as they die of treatable diseases because the hospital is on the "other side" but it's hardly functioning having been looted. Electricity cables are rolled up and sold. Upper middle class houses are dismantled brick by brick to be exported. You pay tolls to reach the market to buy food - if you have money. Most of the time it's you selling part of your NGO rations to buy medicine.

So I see the arrogance and shake my head.

All the civil wars in Africa were as a result of one or allied ethnic groups dominating others. The so called government became synonymous with one ethnic group. Their wealth and state wealth had no boundaries. This is the situation in Kenya. The same propaganda used to explain and justify it in Nigeria before Biafra, the lies of Siad Barre's clan or the claims of various actors in Chad from Felix Malloum to Habre - all merge in Kenya. When you've seen it all before it can be very lonely and you feel like John The Baptist or Noah (minus divinity).

So yes Kenya is more ready for war than any other country in the region.

Can it be avoided? No. The oligarchs have totally indoctrinated their followers. The current generation is incorrigibly damaged. The ethnic chauvinism and machismo is not repairable. When questioned about malignant electoral fraud, the answer is chest thumping and straight up insinuations suggesting the losers are stupid.

Anyway I think I've answered one of your questions.

[Stockguru]

This is profound and it something i have been thinking about since 2007. jubilee purge of civil society has really created a big vacuum and in its place hardliners and opportunists have gain the upper hand. The implosion of Kenya will be really quick and nasty.

I think it was Rasan Warah on Twitter who asked If Kenyans have given up on Nation building. the question was something like that. There was defeaning silence or the usual like said idiots screaming nonsense and attacking her or supporting their oligarchs.

Nations are built with tears and blood and i do not think ours is an exception

[RV Pundit]

Somali gov is really only effective in Mogadishu. The rest of Somalia has been split into self governing regions. Madobe runs Jubbaland. Somaliland is independent. Puntland is independent. The rest of country outside Mogadishu is disputed by Alshabab and Somali gov.

So worry less about Somalia or Mogadishu.

As for Kenya 2007 was near civil war, it gaves us constitution 2010, and if implemented we can avoid a proper civil war. We were just weeks from one in 2007 - as KDF would have split into tribes - and kenya descend into anarchy would have began.

If Ruto is rigged out - and Koome continue messing around - we have a civil war in 10 months. Once Kalenjin starts - the rest will join. Forced to join. Gov will respond with security forces - security forces will split. Kenya will join Ethiopia and could end up permanently dismembered.

Civil war will only happen if protagonist are willing to go to war. Luos-and NASA crew have no bone for a fight. They will complain for next 100yrs. Kalenjin are ever willing to fight and die for a cause. They know they can take on Kenya gov and it;s security forces...they know the immediate reward in Land...if they kick out millions of diaspora. Ruto himself is very courageous - no retreat no surrender kind of guy. So it will be huge fight.

[Omollo]

Pundit

War is dynamic. The weak groups eventually realize their lives and offspring are in danger and pull up their socks.

Take Lebanon, at the start of the war, the "government" controlled by Christians was the strongest force. Before long that split into tiny sectarian armies. Shiites were the weakest group among the weak. Everyone had a powerful ally from the middle east. From Saudia helping Sunnis to Syria helping sects allied to her.

The revolution happened in Iran and it started changing. Iran armed the Shiites who had been sporadically aided by ... wait for it ... Israel! The motive being a weak Arab neighbor is one busy fighting a civil war. But iran had no such motives. It wanted to aid shiites. Plus the Arabs were bankrolling Iraq to kill the revolution.

So from the above you should see that a civil war party isn't to be judged by the strength at the start of the war.

One thing is clear: KDF would start off strong before disintegrating and becoming the weakest party. We saw Samwel Doe remain with 200 soldiers in his army once American money stopped coming.

But who becomes stronger will depend on preparations made before the first shot; Alliances made; Foreign backers etc. Uthamakistan may initially bank on KDF but will soon realize it's a shell. Their large emigre population abroad may provide the financial muscle. But they have no international border, have issues with Somalis and South Sudan (they are killed in South Sudan for sport with such derogatory remarks like there's no land here to steal).

Luos border Uganda & Tanzania. Now that's an advantage they share only with Luhya and Kisii. Kalenjin have blood relatives in South Sudan (as do Luos). The Miji Kenda have whole ports which I guarantee you will be cleaned of Uthamakistanis immediately because it's a source of anger that there are fewer locals employed than Uthamakistanis.

Territory will change hands like Senator Omanga changes panties in parliament.

You've misunderstood my take on Somalia: you see now that they are organized as they are. They can and will negotiate as equals and create a working government. It starts with tight autonomy for each state. Over the next 100 years or so they will ease up and have greater central unity. I think centralization hasn't worked in Africa.

Malignant electoral fraud will be the trigger. But already loud complaints of domination and state capture have reached crescendo.

[RV Pundit]

In kenya - everyone will defend their tribal lands - the conflict will happen in borders and in comspolitan regions. I dont think anybody in kenya has expansionist agenda. It will simply civil war based on tribes.

Pundit

War is dynamic. The weak groups eventually realize their lives and offspring are in danger and pull up their socks.

Take Lebanon, at the start of the war, the "government" controlled by Christians was the strongest force. Before long that split into tiny sectarian armies. Shiites were the weakest group among the weak. Everyone had a powerful ally from the middle east. From Saudia helping Sunnis to Syria helping sects allied to her.

The revolution happened in Iran and it started changing. Iran armed the Shiites who had been sporadically aided by ... wait for it ... Israel! The motive being a weak Arab neighbor is one busy fighting a civil war. But iran had no such motives. It wanted to aid shiites. Plus the Arabs were bankrolling Iraq to kill the revolution.

So from the above you should see that a civil war party isn't to be judged by the strength at the start of the war.

One thing is clear: KDF would start off strong before disintegrating and becoming the weakest party. We saw Samwel Doe remain with 200 soldiers in his army once American money stopped coming.

But who becomes stronger will depend on preparations made before the first shot; Alliances made; Foreign backers etc. Uthamakistan may initially bank on KDF but will soon realize it's a shell. Their large emigre population abroad may provide the financial muscle. But they have no international border, have issues with Somalis and South Sudan (they are killed in South Sudan for sport with such derogatory remarks like there's no land here to steal).

Luos border Uganda & Tanzania. Now that's an advantage they share only with Luhya and Kisii. Kalenjin have blood relatives in South Sudan (as do Luos). The Miji Kenda have whole ports which I guarantee you will be cleaned of Uthamakistanis immediately because it's a source of anger that there are fewer locals employed than Uthamakistanis.

Territory will change hands like Senator Omanga changes panties in parliament.

You've misunderstood my take on Somalia: you see now that they are organized as they are. They can and will negotiate as equals and create a working government. It starts with tight autonomy for each state. Over the next 100 years or so they will ease up and have greater central unity. I think centralization hasn't worked in Africa.

Malignant electoral fraud will be the trigger. But already loud complaints of domination and state capture have reached crescendo.

[KenyanPlato]

Pundit
If you lose at the border you will get occupied. If kipsigisi win against Maa at the border they push to expand their territory.if Maa win they will push to expand territory. Pokots would do the same, turns would do the same. North and South rift would be very violent place.,northern kenya would just remain status quo to big of an area. Southern  Maa would push kikuyus back and occupy their lands during drought..kikuyus would fight to relive pressure.

War is hell