Author Topic: Special Thread on Ethiopia war  (Read 8104 times)

Offline Stockguru

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #20 on: November 30, 2021, 06:15:10 AM »

   This war is mostly turned into an information warfare.

 

this a Walmart type of Analyst. A Mzungu playing up his white card to milk Ethiopian Govt

Offline mankind

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #21 on: December 01, 2021, 12:53:39 AM »

Offline mankind

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #22 on: December 01, 2021, 01:57:45 AM »

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #23 on: December 02, 2021, 03:12:28 AM »
Already refugees are in Kenya

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #24 on: December 02, 2021, 10:52:50 AM »
Abbiy Ethiopia still have some weapon - bombing of Sudan

Another video shows the bombing of the Sudanese army by the Ethiopian army after the Ethiopian attack on the Shai Bet area in Al-Fashqa this morning, Wednesday.


Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #25 on: December 02, 2021, 02:52:13 PM »
Who is bombing Sudan or Ethiopia?

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #26 on: December 02, 2021, 02:54:31 PM »
Ethiopia. I think Sudan started. Ethiopia responded with mortars.
Who is bombing Sudan or Ethiopia?

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #27 on: December 02, 2021, 08:11:18 PM »
Tigray getting a hidding - and Adis is safe for now. Fortunes have changed unless this tactical retreat. TDF have no answer for the airforce bombing.

Look like a long civil war is on card...it's going to be a stalemate for a long time.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1q-M9x3Kshld2Ys36jDU0Y45TmvE7E0km&hl=en&ll=10.051611399999999%2C39.942524800000015&z=9
The ENDF+ARSF+Fano are advancing in large numbers north along the A2 highway amidst a large retreat of the TDF+OLA. Many towns along the road are expected to have been recaptured or will be recaptured shortly.

Offline mankind

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #28 on: December 03, 2021, 02:33:29 AM »
 As I noted earlier this is mostly an information war. Seems it started way longer than we think. Listen to this interview and be the judge.

   

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #29 on: December 04, 2021, 06:40:11 AM »
Abiy airforce giving TDF a hidding. But TDF have been smart to withdraw and avoid battle. It takes discipline to do that. When weak - withdraw - and re-strategize.

Over the course of a week the TDF is visually confirmed to have lost at least 10 armored vehicles.
-1 T-72
-3 T-62s
-5 T-55s
-1 Type 89

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #30 on: December 09, 2021, 12:12:26 PM »
According to this guy who has been credible - it appears these is some cease-fire agreement - as Ethiopia forces are not attacking retreating TDF.

I guess there is probably deal to allow Tigray region to become independent. This would be smart thing to do for Baby Abiy.



Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #31 on: December 12, 2021, 07:49:49 AM »
The drones have crippled tdf completely. Now endf has blocked their retreat out of amahara and seems like abiy is convinced endf can end them Here. The next two weeks will determine if endf will force a surrender or it may force tdf to just fight for its survival. Tdf needs an answer to these drones, if not they must dig in for a long war. Sajid is claiming that the economic damage to Ethiopia is extensive and it will take 20 years and over 30 years of Amhara and Tigray regions to recover. A famine could be what eventually removes abiy from power.

What tigray can do is if they are militarily defeated is to allow endf to March to mekele..this would put the problem of feeding and reconstruction into the hands to abiy and I suspect he doesn't want this responsibility

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #32 on: December 12, 2021, 08:32:59 AM »
In the mountains the drones are not effective as they cannot manuouvre and that is why tdf retreat was a tactical move.TDF cannot acquire drones as they are not a country...so this mean they have to drag the war to mountains like Taliban did and drag the war for a while

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #33 on: December 12, 2021, 09:36:52 AM »
In the mountains the drones are not effective as they cannot manuouvre and that is why tdf retreat was a tactical move.TDF cannot acquire drones as they are not a country...so this mean they have to drag the war to mountains like Taliban did and drag the war for a while

If they drag this war for another 6 months Ethiopia govt may find it hard for it to keep funding the war. What tdf has to do is hit amhara regional govt and run. Just keep the militias and endf on wild goose chase and with time someone within abiy in er circle will take him out

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #34 on: December 12, 2021, 09:41:35 AM »
Yeah they have to hope that western nations sanctions on Abiy will slow him down. I also agree on opening offensive toward Amhara regional gov...and defending against Eritrea and Afar on the eastside.
If they drag this war for another 6 months Ethiopia govt may find it hard for it to keep funding the war. What tdf has to do is hit amhara regional govt and run. Just keep the militias and endf on wild goose chase and with time someone within abiy in er circle will take him out

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #35 on: December 13, 2021, 01:25:41 PM »
TDF recapture Lalibela and Gashena.

Njuri thought the war was over :)

https://mobile.twitter.com/MapEthiopia

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #36 on: December 14, 2021, 11:36:48 PM »
Look like TDF may have decided to go West to Amhara HQ first - Bahir Dar in Lake Tana - rather than to Adis Abab

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #37 on: December 18, 2021, 06:41:20 PM »
TDF has retreated out of Amhara. Endf has the advantage and may head into Tigray region. Endf and Amhara forces have really done well in the last 2 weeks. Seems TDF is demoralized and just retreating.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #38 on: December 18, 2021, 09:32:50 PM »
Yeah without local population support..they are on their back..losing woldiya is big setback..look like they have to retreat back to Tigrayan..they still have lalibella https://mobile.twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1472240277985366022

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #39 on: December 20, 2021, 06:17:42 AM »
As I noted earlier this is mostly an information war. Seems it started way longer than we think. Listen to this interview and be the judge.

   

Tplf propaganda is top notch. They have been in power for 30 years so they have networks all the world. Tplf claims it was a preemptive strike against abiy and Eritrea plans to invade their region.

The problem with Abiy supporters is that they were late in getting on the information war. Abiy has no experience or deep connections. The govt info war is being left to diaspora activists and other Ethiopians. It is too uncoordinated to win against the tpfl machinery.

This discussion was interesting but is not something new to me. I knew tpfl was very good in controlling information and in disinformation.

Ethiopians are in a terrible predicament. Their nation has been under almost century of dictatorship. There is very limited freedom of speech in that country. This war has just opened the ethnic fissure wide open. It will hard to mend these fissures.

Blaming western media is convenient but the corporate media is in the pockets of interests groups and whatever the interest of Washington or Buckingham is where they will be.

A journalist given 200 words to explain such a complex country will only do a very superficial narrative in hope it will catch the readers attention.