Author Topic: Special Thread on Ethiopia war  (Read 8108 times)

Offline KenyanPlato

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Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« on: November 23, 2021, 06:03:18 AM »
I will post this channel updates. The guy in it is embedded with TDF and has very good English coverage. He is analyzing news and providing insights. The other thread should stay for debate



"A BRAVE MAN EVERY SOIL IS HIS COUNTRY"

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2021, 05:56:43 PM »
Abiy and his cabinet have left for the battle field. They want to rally for human waves to defend Addis. Haki African politicians are crazy. How do you send waves of civilian to fight an army.

Amhara militia and govt forces have launched an offensive in several battle fields. In a matter of days we will know if they will succeed in their last ditch effort to stop rebels advance


Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #2 on: November 24, 2021, 07:30:47 PM »
Seems Abiy has armed citizens in Addis with sticks to confront TDF. Lol 😆  I was women with big sticks conducting  traffic stops. This is just sad. As soon as these sticks weild morons hear motors fire and gun shots they will be in bed. I hope if TDF shows up in Addis they just get a pass to avoid any civilian and property destruction


Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #3 on: November 25, 2021, 09:13:56 AM »
Good analysis. Debre Sina and Debre Bahr - the last defence before Adis Ababa. It appears Ethiopia has hired 1,000 Russian Vagna - as mercenaries.

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #4 on: November 25, 2021, 05:38:45 PM »
Good analysis. Debre Sina and Debre Bahr - the last defence before Adis Ababa. It appears Ethiopia has hired 1,000 Russian Vagna - as mercenaries.
Good analysis. Abiy forces are circled. Seems Oromia regional govt may give TDF a pass through. One of regional coalition party has given demands for a transition govt.


Offline mankind

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #5 on: November 25, 2021, 08:25:55 PM »

    This war is getting complicated. Another Syrian situation in the making.

   

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #6 on: November 25, 2021, 10:04:43 PM »
Eua has been funding and supplying arms for the last 3 months. This is just a confirmation using evidence.

Below video is important. It is from Aj Zeera which we know can be biased but it has very good pertinent information.
Key points.
1) endf is defending 5 battle fronts. This makes it almost impossible for the army. This right there is a genius of TDF.

2) Abiy purge of the military was so deep. The claim is that he dismissed 70,000 Tigrayans. If that is true then it even makes abiy seem so stupid. Those 70k soldiers are now with TDF.
3) Abiy may have transferred power to deputy pm and left. There is no visual confirmation of his whereabouts.
4) No future role for Abiy is envisaged.

Ignore the first few minutes of govt minister. The rest is interesting.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #7 on: November 25, 2021, 10:16:38 PM »
Yeap - TDF have 5 fronts - and in some sections have met with OLF.
Very soon they are joining OLF who control a huge area
Abiy has certainly escaped - probably amry generals want him hanged

TDF really played this like boss. They were disciplined and tactical - withdraw without a fight to tough mountains. Look like they decoyed in the mountain - destroyed half the army in there - and now are matching almost unperturbed.

Follow this map - for advancement
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1q-M9x3Kshld2Ys36jDU0Y45TmvE7E0km&hl=en&ll=10.069997465342334%2C39.302047557812486&z=8

Eua has been funding and supplying arms for the last 3 months. This is just a confirmation using evidence.

Below video is important. It is from Aj Zeera which we know can be biased but it has very good pertinent information.
Key points.
1) endf is defending 5 battle fronts. This makes it almost impossible for the army. This right there is a genius of TDF.

2) Abiy purge of the military was so deep. The claim is that he dismissed 70,000 Tigrayans. If that is true then it even makes abiy seem so stupid. Those 70k soldiers are now with TDF.
3) Abiy may have transferred power to deputy pm and left. There is no visual confirmation of his whereabouts.
4) No future role for Abiy is envisaged.

Ignore the first few minutes of govt minister. The rest is interesting.


Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #8 on: November 26, 2021, 04:47:29 PM »

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #9 on: November 26, 2021, 04:49:57 PM »
Look like he is gone to Afar region. TDF are struggling in Afar region because it's flat terrain...it's make them susceptible to air strikes. But in the mountains they are able to hide...and wage guerrilla attacks.
Abiy releases statement while in the Bush
https://mobile.twitter.com/AbiyAhmedAli/status/1464210290900410390


Offline Stockguru

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #10 on: November 26, 2021, 10:05:01 PM »
Look like he is gone to Afar region. TDF are struggling in Afar region because it's flat terrain...it's make them susceptible to air strikes. But in the mountains they are able to hide...and wage guerrilla attacks.
Abiy releases statement while in the Bush
https://mobile.twitter.com/AbiyAhmedAli/status/1464210290900410390


This is the same location that ENDF via state media had claimed to have retaken on November 13th. Abiy is lying. We will know by mid next week

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #11 on: November 27, 2021, 12:16:31 AM »
Yes very likely - the top ethiopia officials are evacuating their families out of Adis - they know things could turn bad very rapidly. Key turning point is Debre Bihran.

TDF are struggling in Debre Sinai - that is like Nakuru - and Debre Bihran is Naivasha. Mekelle is like Kampala or further so they have come along way.  120kms can be covered in a week or even less...depending on the panic of Ethiopia leadership. Every defeat of the EDNF sucks their morale and energy to fight...eventually in Adis the army guys will dress as civilian and give them a free pass.

And the TDF are moving in 5 fronts - with OLF already doing their usual shooting around Adis - what OLF lacks is the strategic and heavy push that TDF/TPLF have....and now their merger means its a question of time.

In a week TDF could even decide to attack Adis from the South...in OLF territory.

As long as Amhara state army and militia have failed to stop TDF - it's over for Abbiy. His own Oromo cant wait to see his back.

This is the same location that ENDF via state media had claimed to have retaken on November 13th. Abiy is lying. We will know by mid next week

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #12 on: November 27, 2021, 06:41:37 AM »
This channel disputes any advantage of taking of the small village kasagita. Endf offensive didn't take off as was promised. It is has died with only claim of taking a small village that has no strategic importance plus this amhara militia that only has pick ups and not well equipped

Offline mankind

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #13 on: November 28, 2021, 01:58:52 AM »
  Proxy wars continue. Another Syria loading.

 

 

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #14 on: November 28, 2021, 02:04:44 AM »
Syria is two religious factions - ethiopia is yugoslavia...if tdf find its too hard ...they will split the country or do a loose federation..instead of federal state of ethioia..it would be a unitesd state of ethiopia. Each region with a president instead of a governor

Offline Stockguru

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #15 on: November 28, 2021, 02:40:59 AM »
Syria is two religious factions - ethiopia is yugoslavia...if tdf find its too hard ...they will split the country or do a loose federation..instead of federal state of ethioia..it would be a unitesd state of ethiopia. Each region with a president instead of a governor

Yes, I do not Tigray will ever allow Addis Abba to call shots for them. If Tigray votes to leave Ethiopia everyone else will start to do so. So far TDF has split Amhara region. Oromia region will be making a decision soon. Seems one Faction in Oromia wants out, if the second one agrees and they tactically support TDF it is over Abiy. If TDF just secures one faction support then it goes with the decision to leave the current set up and split the country

This could be a serious civil war that end up with millions dead. The drought season just started. In a few months bodies will be dropping right and left if they are not already


The fact that Eritrea is being used by Abiy just hardens Tigray resolve to see this through or destroy the who current set up

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #16 on: November 28, 2021, 08:12:33 AM »
Oromia is gone. TDF made similar deal with Eritrean rebels when they were kicking out Mengistu. If Eritrean rebels assited them - they would let them become independent. They did.

TDF agreement with OLF is simple - we win - we hold referendum in Oromia - you go seperate. TDF as much as they want to rule again knows it going to be hard without public backing - Oromos and Amharas do not want Tigrays lording over them again. So its likely their first business would be to hold referendum in Tigray and Oromia - and split the country. Tigrays can punish the Amharas by adding over Adis to Oromos.

So it's likely Ethiopia will splinter into seperate countries or a loose federation.

So we will have Oromia, Ogaden, Ethiopia, Tigrayian, Afar and even Gambela as independent countries...joining the mess in Somalia, Somaliland, Puntland, Jubbaland, Djibutti.

If not - Tigrays will probably go for united ethiopia - go all the way to asmara and kick out Eritreans - and enact Rwanda like dictatorship

Yes, I do not Tigray will ever allow Addis Abba to call shots for them. If Tigray votes to leave Ethiopia everyone else will start to do so. So far TDF has split Amhara region. Oromia region will be making a decision soon. Seems one Faction in Oromia wants out, if the second one agrees and they tactically support TDF it is over Abiy. If TDF just secures one faction support then it goes with the decision to leave the current set up and split the country

This could be a serious civil war that end up with millions dead. The drought season just started. In a few months bodies will be dropping right and left if they are not already


The fact that Eritrea is being used by Abiy just hardens Tigray resolve to see this through or destroy the who current set up

Offline mankind

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #17 on: November 29, 2021, 11:14:41 PM »

   Looks like the tide is turning against Tplf according to this report

   

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #18 on: November 30, 2021, 12:14:05 AM »
As TDF suffered losses in Afar region - they are sorrounding Debre Bihran


Offline mankind

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Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
« Reply #19 on: November 30, 2021, 05:44:48 AM »

   This war is mostly turned into an information warfare.