It going to be too close to call. If Ngirici beats Waiguru - she will beat Martha. End of day - Ngiricis have money. Martha lone ranger tactics will go nowhere. She has already made two wrong calls - in 2013 and 2017.
As for Ruto - I think collapsing URP to join Mt kenya was the marriage day - you missed it. That kind of tight coupling is very hard to undo.
Of course it possible to mess up - but even if Raila dies today or resigns from politics - Ruto will still remain the man to beat.
It's combination of factors - including the dearth of any other political player that can unite Mt kenya or rise above their peers - so Ruto is enjoying that space.
If there had been alternative - to Uhuru - that was strong - maybe Ruto would be in competition.
Otherwise we now have 12 young and naive bulls - each with it's own party - each unable to present a formidable front.
Well there you go again. If the new votes get divided and the old stay intact. There you have your answer.
This is politics Ruto is popular in Mt Kenya because of Anti Raila Sentiments . Same case was with Uhuru. He then thought he was his own man and did a handshake with Raila and that was the end of the so called love.
If Ruto thinks he he has consumated his marriage with Mt Kenya like you proclaim. Then let him join up with Raila and see if Mt Kenya will follow him there. Utashangaa ....He will be hated just like Raila.