Nigeria agriclutural reforms - Ruto should copy this

[RV Pundit]

Polemics. Subsidizing inputs will work. Subsidizing seeds or fertilizer will work. It worked under Ruto. Subsidizing Ugali is a problem. Like now fuel subsidy thing - they are running out of money.

You can invest 1B dollars in agri to generate 100B.

Or you can try to subsidize Ugali - and get nowhere.

Look at Netherland - small country - of merely 2 million hectares - that applies 10 times of our fertilizer. They export nearly 100B dollars of agriclutural products.

This a very low hanging fruit.

Subsidies won't work. They promote laziness, are a disincentive against efficiency as long as target market is local.

[RV Pundit]

Egypt does 562 kgs per hectare - Kenya does 15kilos. It no wonder we import everything from Egypt who only farm on a tiny strip of land along the river nile.

We apply 30 times less fertilizer.

[hk]

Subsidizing only means shifting partial cost of a product from the consumer to the public. If a farmer can't buy inputs at the market rate, farm and turn a profit, they should shift to other  economic activity. Government involvement in agriculture is what has hampered market driven growth. NCPB should be immediately be relegated to warehousing only. There's a reason why there's no farmers owned flour company, yet Maize is far more easier to process and market unlike milk for example.

[RV Pundit]

There are two things that you've overlooking. Large portion of kenyans are farmers - NOT BY CHOICE - but because they have no other option. There are at least 8m poor farmers in kenya - who can never afford farm inputs - they rely on almost zero fertilizers - bad seeds - and this will continue - and they will remain poor.Secondly it's proven by fertilizer application will increase yield - double application - will nearly double the yields.

So it's Productivity cum Poverty (social investment) - I believe this essence of the bottom up economy - deliberate intervention as opposed to policy intervention that hopefully trickle down.

We either give them low interest loans or we subsidize fertilizers - and bring it to the floor - and hope everyone can afford it. But we are doing so badly - we need to increase fertilizer application at least 5 times - in the short term - and 10 times in the medium term.

Maize milling - there is a literally a posho mill in every hamlet - the overcapacity is incredible - unless you mean the urban market - otherwise staple food flour milling in kenya is a non-issues.

Subsidizing only means shifting partial cost of a product from the consumer to the public. If a farmer can't buy inputs at the market rate, farm and turn a profit, they should shift to other  economic activity. Government involvement in agriculture is what has hampered market driven growth. NCPB should be immediately be relegated to warehousing only. There's a reason why there's no farmers owned flour company, yet Maize is far more easier to process and market unlike milk for example.

[hk]

There are two things that you've overlooking. Large portion of kenyans are farmers - NOT BY CHOICE - but because they have no other option. There are at least 8m poor farmers in kenya - who can never afford farm inputs - they rely on almost zero fertilizers - bad seeds - and this will continue - and they will remain poor.Secondly it's proven by fertilizer application will increase yield - double application - will nearly double the yields.

So it's Productivity cum Poverty (social investment) - I believe this essence of the bottom up economy - deliberate intervention as opposed to policy intervention that hopefully trickle down.

We either give them low interest loans or we subsidize fertilizers - and bring it to the floor - and hope everyone can afford it. But we are doing so badly - we need to increase fertilizer application at least 5 times - in the short term - and 10 times in the medium term.

Maize milling - there is a literally a posho mill in every hamlet - the overcapacity is incredible - unless you mean the urban market - otherwise staple food flour milling in kenya is a non-issues.

Subsidizing only means shifting partial cost of a product from the consumer to the public. If a farmer can't buy inputs at the market rate, farm and turn a profit, they should shift to other  economic activity. Government involvement in agriculture is what has hampered market driven growth. NCPB should be immediately be relegated to warehousing only. There's a reason why there's no farmers owned flour company, yet Maize is far more easier to process and market unlike milk for example.

NCPB farmers aren't poor just pampered inefficient farmers. The subsistence farmer can use organic fertilizers to increase yields, then grow to afford chemical fertilizers.  The productivity increment for a subsistence farmer use of chemical fertilizer vs organic is marginal. Its the same reason why David ndii is advocating for use of charcoal for the poor as bridge to electricity or gas.
Milk is also hawked in every hamlet since independence. The point is farmers owned milling/packaging/branding company would drive increase in productivity downstream. It's the reason why Githunguri, meru and mukurweini dairy farmers are some of the most productive in the country. 

[RV Pundit]

I think we are not talking about the same farmers. If you're talking small scale commercial farming like you see in Eldoret or Kericho or Kitale - those ones are okayish - they just need small incentive - NCPB to be reformed. They need KFA that is working - a farmers bank - that can lend along the season. They need low cost loans...and they will apply enough fertilizers, buy quality seeds, pesticides and are almost as good as any maize farmer in the world.

Some have grown to milling - like Kili's in Eldoret.

Now move on to 8M POOR REALLY SMALLHOLDER FARMING


I am talking 8m farmers in vihiga, bungoma, gusii, embu, bomet - these are farmers - who own 1-2 acres of land. These are farming model I am talking about.

Oneacrefund has been successfully in part of western kenya - and gov need to adopt such a model

Listen to OnAcreFund founder.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=wlR1ojoiue0&feature=emb_logo

NCPB farmers aren't poor just pampered inefficient farmers. The subsistence farmer can use organic fertilizers to increase yields, then grow to afford chemical fertilizers.  The productivity increment for a subsistence farmer use of chemical fertilizer vs organic is marginal. Its the same reason why David ndii is advocating for use of charcoal for the poor as bridge to electricity or gas.
Milk is also hawked in every hamlet since independence. The point is farmers owned milling/packaging/branding company would drive increase in productivity downstream. It's the reason why Githunguri, meru and mukurweini dairy farmers are some of the most productive in the country. 

[vooke]

You don't need to subsidize ugali, just open import floodgates and ugali will cost a fraction.

Instant uppercut to inflation.

Polemics. Subsidizing inputs will work. Subsidizing seeds or fertilizer will work. It worked under Ruto. Subsidizing Ugali is a problem. Like now fuel subsidy thing - they are running out of money.

You can invest 1B dollars in agri to generate 100B.

Or you can try to subsidize Ugali - and get nowhere.

Look at Netherland - small country - of merely 2 million hectares - that applies 10 times of our fertilizer. They export nearly 100B dollars of agriclutural products.

This a very low hanging fruit.

Subsidies won't work. They promote laziness, are a disincentive against efficiency as long as target market is local.

[RV Pundit]

That I agree entirely.
But I also think the 8M poor farmers without any career options; need help.
We have been unable to help them with blocking imports - and we have many consumers suffering.
So for me open the floodgates
And then assist the farmers to compete.
There is NO MAGIC in agricluture...it just fertilizers, quality seeds and rainfall.

If after giving them 1B dollars shot in the arm - and they are unable to compete with international prizes - then we cannot help them

You don't need to subsidize ugali, just open import floodgates and ugali will cost a fraction.

Instant uppercut to inflation.

[Georgesoros]

Look at fertilizer application in kenya - it stuck or even regressing.  And this key to unlock agriculture - gov need to subsidize fertilizers - from now 3500 per 50bag to 1,000 - and then import 5 times more - and agriculture gdp will move from 25B to 100B dollars

What will be cost of fertilizer subsidy programme of such magnitude....

KTDA import  nearly 1/5 of all the fertilizers - about 100K metric tonnes - out of the roughly 500K metric tonnes being imported in the country

"KTDA Management Services Ltd imported 95,937 metric tonnes (1,918,734 bags) of NPK 26:5:5 fertilizer valued at Kshs. 3.822 Billion on behalf of 619,637 small-scale tea farmers and some multinational companies. The fertilizer has been distributed through the 69 KTDA-managed tea factories in Kenya."

Now that tell you total fertilizer imports to kenya - is mere 20B Kshs.

To raise that 5 times - gov will need to spend 80Bkshs - but because farmers will buy say at 1,000 per bag (spending almost the same amount now - but getting 5 bags instead of 1) - gov need to spend 80B minus 20B.

A fertlizer subsidy programme of 60B kshs - that is just 600M dollars - can generate 100B dollars (with other factors).

So give and take - subsidize quality seeds and pesticides - you can spend 1B dollars  consisting of 600m on fertilizers, 400m in other aspects such as seeds/pesticide - and generate 100B dollars.

With lots of food generated - animal feeds, poutry, dairy - will become profitable.

And with that agro-processing will make sense - so you can similarly lift manufacturing.

https://africafertilizer.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Kenya-Fertilizer-Statistics-Overview-2015.pdf

Subsidies won't work. They promote laziness, are a disincentive against efficiency as long as target market is local.

Fertilizer are like antibiotics - they kill good nutrients leaving farmers to depend on them every year.  In the end there is no nutrients in the foods being produced.
Pundit you've repeated these ideas year after year, but no policy while Ruto has been in high office for twenty plus years.
What makes you think I should believe this will be done in 5yrs?

[RV Pundit]

But Ruto did it under Ministry of Kilimo - before Raila got jealous and demoted him to Min of Higher education.

He delivered in Min of Higher Education - they fired him to stay at home.

Ruto delivered in Jubilee 1.0 - Uhuru got jealous and fired him. Now he unable to even print HUDUMA number  and Big 4 is totally zero. BBI ndio hiyo found with 20 fatal errors. They cannot do nothing - while Jubilee 1.0 broke the record by increasing their votes while running as incumbent

Ruto was so good as Ass min under Moi - he was allowed to sit in Cabinet. Ruto just has never failed to deliver on a given job...he expend energy and commitmentand get stuff done.

Now Ruto as PORK - many of these common sense ideas will be EXECUTED. Ruto knows how to get stuff done. We do not need MAGICAL ideas - we just need to do common sense stuff - that works - SACCOs - Fertilizers - etc.

Under his kilimo tenure
Fertilizers were so cheap - they used to be re-sold to uganda by corrupt gangs - and we got maize surplus.
Ruto is also a farmer himself.

My father was not a Ruto fan - but in 2009 - they went and saw Ruto - and he fixed their tea problem instantly - he just picked a phone and told KTDA to f.off and my father /others were able to sell their tea to James Finlay and my village totally changed in 5yrs as people became rich -

Ruto use to reserve wednesday to see people and fix their issues. Simple stuff like picking a phone  and reading riot act to stupid people in gov - can change a lot.

Fertilizer are like antibiotics - they kill good nutrients leaving farmers to depend on them every year.  In the end there is no nutrients in the foods being produced.
Pundit you've repeated these ideas year after year, but no policy while Ruto has been in high office for twenty plus years.
What makes you think I should believe this will be done in 5yrs?

[vooke]

There's nothing you can do to bring down the cost of maize to say Uganda's.

As long as they are producing for local market then you may as well let them be and instead buy maize at above market price as NCPB which you then resell to millers.

International soko is a new ball game where you don't get to set prices.

That I agree entirely.
But I also think the 8M poor farmers without any career options; need help.
We have been unable to help them with blocking imports - and we have many consumers suffering.
So for me open the floodgates
And then assist the farmers to compete.
There is NO MAGIC in agricluture...it just fertilizers, quality seeds and rainfall.

If after giving them 1B dollars shot in the arm - and they are unable to compete with international prizes - then we cannot help them

You don't need to subsidize ugali, just open import floodgates and ugali will cost a fraction.

Instant uppercut to inflation.

[RV Pundit]

But we are in agreement.
The only reason international prices are higher is because they apply more fertilizers - something we can do.
Uganda has natural rich soil - but with fertilizers - we can beat them.

I am for subsidizing key inputs

And then letting farmers compete with everyone.

We cannot do both. We only give them fertilizers - either as loan or grants - then they compete like everyone else

But we cannot tax consumers - and then send money to agriclutural sector that will be untaxed.

Kenya has been trying to do both in haphazard way.

We need farmers to be told - okay here is fertilizers - selling for 700shs - cheap quality seeds - now work hard - and produce - and find market.

There's nothing you can do to bring down the cost of maize to say Uganda's.

As long as they are producing for local market then you may as well let them be and instead buy maize at above market price as NCPB which you then resell to millers.

International soko is a new ball game where you don't get to set prices.

[Arcadian_Dreamer]

Fertilizer are like antibiotics - they kill good nutrients leaving farmers to depend on them every year.  In the end there is no nutrients in the foods being produced.
Pundit you've repeated these ideas year after year, but no policy while Ruto has been in high office for twenty plus years.
What makes you think I should believe this will be done in 5yrs?

Kula tano you showing ecological know how.

Fertiliziers are 19th century mistake.

21st century will be about taking care of soil microbes which give soil nutrients. Fertilizers kill soil microorganisms.

Uasin Gishu used to be one of the most fertile areas and the breadbasket of Kenya's its soils are turning barren yields decreasing dramatically because of overapplication of chemical fertilizers burning the soil, pure acid and salt.

He loves running his mouth about shit he doesn't know anything about.

Subsidies are a time bomb, they destroy countries, hard to withdraw even after the stated goal has been achieved.

He is having wet dreams about Ruto presidency that will not be, a world of make believe.

Boy will be utterly shattered mentally this time next year.

[RV Pundit]

Pure nonsense. Without fertilizers, the world would not have been able to support 7B people. Fertilizers application is through the roof outside Africa - and their agriculture thrives.

Fertilizers do not take nutrients away - how is that even possible when Nitrogen is freely available in the air. We are doing 15kilos -while Egypt is doing 500kilos per hectare...and now we are importing 1.5B dollars worth of food...more if you include palm oil...and you think subsidy wont work? While we are sending 1.5B dollars every year abroad to import food we can produce?

what takes nutrient away from soil is useless crops like sugar cane and tobbaco - those are the ones that have sucked up nyanza and western soil.And the soil require heavy dosage of fertilizers to replenish their nutrients.

If there is a problem in places like Eldoret - it soil acidity - and it just need dosage of lime - from Koru.

Next agricluture - cannot be done organic old stone age way - we have to go scientific - do soil testing - and apply the required dossage of fertilizers and chemicals - and voila we are food sufficent - and can export lot more food.

Kula tano you showing ecological know how.

Fertiliziers are 19th century mistake.

21st century will be about taking care of soil microbes which give soil nutrients. Fertilizers kill soil microorganisms.

Uasin Gishu used to be one of the most fertile areas and the breadbasket of Kenya's its soils are turning barren yields decreasing dramatically because of overapplication of chemical fertilizers burning the soil, pure acid and salt.

He loves running his mouth about shit he doesn't know anything about.

Subsidies are a time bomb, they destroy countries, hard to withdraw even after the stated goal has been achieved.

He is having wet dreams about Ruto presidency that will not be, a world of make believe.

Boy will be utterly shattered mentally this time next year.

[hk]

I think we are not talking about the same farmers. If you're talking small scale commercial farming like you see in Eldoret or Kericho or Kitale - those ones are okayish - they just need small incentive - NCPB to be reformed. They need KFA that is working - a farmers bank - that can lend along the season. They need low cost loans...and they will apply enough fertilizers, buy quality seeds, pesticides and are almost as good as any maize farmer in the world.

Some have grown to milling - like Kili's in Eldoret.

Now move on to 8M POOR REALLY SMALLHOLDER FARMING


I am talking 8m farmers in vihiga, bungoma, gusii, embu, bomet - these are farmers - who own 1-2 acres of land. These are farming model I am talking about.

Oneacrefund has been successfully in part of western kenya - and gov need to adopt such a model

Listen to OnAcreFund founder.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=wlR1ojoiue0&feature=emb_logo

NCPB farmers aren't poor just pampered inefficient farmers. The subsistence farmer can use organic fertilizers to increase yields, then grow to afford chemical fertilizers.  The productivity increment for a subsistence farmer use of chemical fertilizer vs organic is marginal. Its the same reason why David ndii is advocating for use of charcoal for the poor as bridge to electricity or gas.
Milk is also hawked in every hamlet since independence. The point is farmers owned milling/packaging/branding company would drive increase in productivity downstream. It's the reason why Githunguri, meru and mukurweini dairy farmers are some of the most productive in the country. 

The 8m poor farmers if they were farming the ideal crops for their area would do just fine or atleast improve their lot. Bungoma, vihiga or Embu can focus on legumes. There's a ready market for legumes in North Eastern and kenya in general. Kitui had produced ndengu successfully.
Instead of offering subsidized loan, treasury should work to lower interest rates for everyone. A farmer should easily walk to the nearest bank and borrow, after all farming is an economic endeavor just like any other.

[RV Pundit]

No, farming cannot work like commercial banks. Farm loans need to follow farming seasons. This not a shop keeper who will be in business everyday. This an activity that start with farming and end with harvesting. People need inputs in planting period - and then grace period - until harvestig.

KFA then KGGCU before it became privatized use to work really well - and many farmers were successfully.

What we need now is KFA that is public - the other one is private - or gov to acquire KFA - and make it big.

KFA - should offer farm input loans and crop insurance around the farming calender - and should be everywhere.

Safaricom has digifarm thing that is working somewhat.

These 8M people are not sophisticated enough to go to bank - take a loan - and do all that. They are mostly illiterates. They need to be given fertilizers - and after harvesting - the money is deducted - if crop failed due to rain - crop insurance deal with that.

We need a farmers bank - that runs on a cooperative model - that owns fertilizer importation/production - and quality seeds - and then warehouses and all that.

I would merge and acquire KFA, Kenya Seeds and NCPB - into one giant Kenya Farmers Bank. Gov annually will subsidize this bank by injecting money to be lend to farmers in form of inputs

The 8m poor farmers if they were farming the ideal crops for their area would do just fine or atleast improve their lot. Bungoma, vihiga or Embu can focus on legumes. There's a ready market for legumes in North Eastern and kenya in general. Kitui had produced ndengu successfully.
Instead of offering subsidized loan, treasury should work to lower interest rates for everyone. A farmer should easily walk to the nearest bank and borrow, after all farming is an economic endeavor just like any other.

[hk]

But Ruto did it under Ministry of Kilimo - before Raila got jealous and demoted him to Min of Higher education.

He delivered in Min of Higher Education - they fired him to stay at home.

Ruto delivered in Jubilee 1.0 - Uhuru got jealous and fired him. Now he unable to even print HUDUMA number  and Big 4 is totally zero. BBI ndio hiyo found with 20 fatal errors. They cannot do nothing - while Jubilee 1.0 broke the record by increasing their votes while running as incumbent

Ruto was so good as Ass min under Moi - he was allowed to sit in Cabinet. Ruto just has never failed to deliver on a given job...he expend energy and commitmentand get stuff done.

Now Ruto as PORK - many of these common sense ideas will be EXECUTED. Ruto knows how to get stuff done. We do not need MAGICAL ideas - we just need to do common sense stuff - that works - SACCOs - Fertilizers - etc.

Under his kilimo tenure
Fertilizers were so cheap - they used to be re-sold to uganda by corrupt gangs - and we got maize surplus.
Ruto is also a farmer himself.

My father was not a Ruto fan - but in 2009 - they went and saw Ruto - and he fixed their tea problem instantly - he just picked a phone and told KTDA to f.off and my father /others were able to sell their tea to James Finlay and my village totally changed in 5yrs as people became rich -

Ruto use to reserve wednesday to see people and fix their issues. Simple stuff like picking a phone  and reading riot act to stupid people in gov - can change a lot.

Fertilizer are like antibiotics - they kill good nutrients leaving farmers to depend on them every year.  In the end there is no nutrients in the foods being produced.
Pundit you've repeated these ideas year after year, but no policy while Ruto has been in high office for twenty plus years.
What makes you think I should believe this will be done in 5yrs?

He also banned export of raw nuts, killing the cashew nuts industry in coast. And also deprived macadamia farmers higher gate prices for macadamia as the foreign buyers were deported.
Subsidized fertilizer distorts cost of production and farmers never really increase productivity cause they're solely dependent on cheap fertilizer. Even worse the subsidy is shouldered by the public. 

[RV Pundit]

Post Ruto reforms - see how Kenya has risen in Macademia

He also banned export of raw nuts, killing the cashew nuts industry in coast. And also deprived macadamia farmers higher gate prices for macadamia as the foreign buyers were deported.
Subsidized fertilizer distorts cost of production and farmers never really increase productivity cause they're solely dependent on cheap fertilizer. Even worse the subsidy is shouldered by the public. 

[hk]

No, farming cannot work like commercial banks. Farm loans need to follow farming seasons. This not a shop keeper who will be in business everyday. This an activity that start with farming and end with harvesting. People need inputs in planting period - and then grace period - until harvestig.

KFA then KGGCU before it became privatized use to work really well - and many farmers were successfully.

What we need now is KFA that is public - the other one is private - or gov to acquire KFA - and make it big.

KFA - should offer farm input loans and crop insurance around the farming calender - and should be everywhere.

Safaricom has digifarm thing that is working somewhat.

These 8M people are not sophisticated enough to go to bank - take a loan - and do all that. They are mostly illiterates. They need to be given fertilizers - and after harvesting - the money is deducted - if crop failed due to rain - crop insurance deal with that.

The 8m poor farmers if they were farming the ideal crops for their area would do just fine or atleast improve their lot. Bungoma, vihiga or Embu can focus on legumes. There's a ready market for legumes in North Eastern and kenya in general. Kitui had produced ndengu successfully.
Instead of offering subsidized loan, treasury should work to lower interest rates for everyone. A farmer should easily walk to the nearest bank and borrow, after all farming is an economic endeavor just like any other.

Actually local banks have Agriculture division that supposed to lend to farmers, coop, kcb and equity. The loans are specifically structured for agriculture.  The 8m subsistence farmers don't they farm mainly for their own consumption? If that's the case, the primary objective would be to find out what economic activity they can engage in that's commercially viable.
For example, Wakulima dairy in Nyeri provides farmers with everything they need to run a household its then deducted from  their milk earnings. The farmer can then focus on dairy farming.

[RV Pundit]

Yes primarily they should grow enough food to meet their nutritional requirement first - and hopefully sell some surplus.

There are all sort of systems in place - some sectors like tea and dairy are okay - there is a working model there - and those sub-sectors are successfuly - it doesnt need much tweaking.

There commercial banks/micro-finance lending very high interest loans with high fees -

We need a farmers bank - that runs on a cooperative model - that owns fertilizer importation/production - and quality seeds - and then warehouses and all that.

I would merge and acquire KFA, Kenya Seeds and NCPB - into one giant Kenya Farmers Bank. Gov annually will subsidize this bank by injecting money to be lend to farmers in form of inputs - and this bank - can "bank" farm outputs - and find market for them - just like KTDA.

I would avoid lending money to poor illiterates farmers - who will waste it and go deeper into poverty. They should be told to form farming groups - prepare their land - and farm inspector come - issue fertilizers - people plant - all of them get crop insurances at small fee - and they tend to the crops - their surplus can be sold to re-pay the zero rated loans.

Something like Digifarm, OneAcrefund merged with KFA, Kenya Seeds,NCPB and then fertilizer importation; DONE.

We cannot leave everything to magic of Market Economy - these 8M poor farmers will never emerge from their hole - without gov subsidies. And if supported they can double or triple their production in a year - eat better and spend more in the same economy.

Actually local banks have Agriculture division that supposed to lend to farmers, coop, kcb and equity. The loans are specifically structured for agriculture.  The 8m subsistence farmers don't they farm mainly for their own consumption? If that's the case, the primary objective would be to find out what economic activity they can engage in that's commercially viable.
For example, Wakulima dairy in Nyeri provides farmers with everything they need to run a household its then deducted from  their milk earnings. The farmer can then focus on dairy farming.