Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Nefertiti on March 05, 2021, 06:21:06 AM
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70-20 :o 8)
At least ANC vs ODM is closer race, with UDA distant 3rd. :)
Pundit & Noway just wipe the smug - write off Luhya from Ruto column.
The electoral agency has declared Ford Kenya candidate Majimbo Kalasinga the winner of the Kabuchai MP race after he garnered 19, 274 votes.
Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) returning officer Benson Esuza announced on Friday morning that Evans Kakai of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) became second with 6,455 votes.
https://nation.africa/kenya/counties/bungoma/ford-kenya-s-majimbo-kalasinga-wins-kabuchai-mp-race-3312446
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Gusii MCA... ODM tops - UDA distant 4th
ODM Party candidate Malack Matara put a sturdy lead to secure victory in the Thursday mini polls in Kiamokama, Kisii.
He garnered 1,907 votes, eclipsing his challengers with a strong margin, to secure victory for the Orange party.
The closest contestants Daniel Ondabu (PED) emerged second with 1,257 while Stephen Nyakeriga of New Democrats got 1,004 in to close the tally of the three best.
UDA's Nyandusi Nyakeramba - who had run-ins with the police in the morning hours - garnered a paltry 491 pushing his rank to a distant fifth.
A frictional start between the Tangatanga camp and delayed entry into the game limped the former tea director home with the paltry haul.
The seat was left vacant by the death of Kennedy Mainya (ODM) to Covid.
So lacklustre was UDA's candidate that he secured at 59 votes in a polling station outside his doorstep at Moremani area.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-03-05-odm-in-secure-lead-in-kisiis-kiamokama-by-election/
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UDA vs "dying" Jubilee is basically a tie in Nax
London
Nzuki trounced Francis Njoroge of Jubilee after he garnered 1,707 votes against Njoroge’s 1,385.
Hell's Gate
Wamaitha’s win in Naivasha’s Hell’s Gate race will give Jubilee some hope after she registered 3,863 votes against her closest rival UDA’s Jonathan Warothe who got 2,766.
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001405394/jubilee-uda-share-spoils-in-nakuru-vote
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Matungu - ANC man unassailable - UDA distant 3rd
ANC’s Peter Nabulindo has stretched the lead in the Matungu parliamentary by-election.
By 6am, Nabulindo had garnered 12,399 votes and is likely to trounce his closest challenger, David Were of ODM, who had 8,896 votes.
By the time 99 out of 116 polling stations had their results in.
United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate Alex Lanya is currently third with 4,290 votes.
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001405393/ancs-peter-nabulindo-stretches-lead-in-matungu
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You desperately trying to spin this Main loser is ODM my friend Ruto was just testing the waters and he did just fine.
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No UDA did well because the handshake crew ganged up and Balkanize the country something hard to pull in general election. They only succeeded in stopping uda momentum but let see how they 7 will do against Ruto in 2022.UDA need to condemn party primaries next time
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Ruto is doing very well am sure system is shitting bricks. Ruto needs to keep RV, Mlima, NEP and coast constantly energized don't waste time in western and ukambani.
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Njuri this deflation of UDA momentum is actually a win for ODM. It was billed as handshake vs UDA showdown by Pundit himself - UDA spokesman on nipate - and all the fake analysts in media. Complete with multiple threads. Ruto was supposed to be doing so well in Bukusu - it was literally Weta one-man guitar vs Barasa, Waluke, Mabonga, Wanyama - all Tangatanga MPs in Bungoma. Rest of Ford-K crew of Wangamati, Wamunyinyi, Eseli sat it out after trying to overthrow Weta. The hustler dog-beating in Kabuchai is a surprise especially the 3-to-1 margin. Gusii 4-to-1 vs ODM rout is so bad. Gema split 50-50 contrary to Noway & Pundit hubris. Matungu outcome is unsurprising. Hustler has clearly made very slim headway in entire Luhya and Gusii. Gema are sliding from his grip.
Nationwide Ruto is ducking BBI bullet for a reason - fear of very bad rout. If he had done well in these byelections he would probably have gone full No. Now it back to basics.
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Njuri this deflation of UDA momentum is actually a win for ODM. It was billed as handshake vs UDA showdown by Pundit himself - UDA spokesman on nipate - and all the fake analysts in media. Complete with multiple threads. Ruto was supposed to be doing so well in Bukusu - it was literally Weta one-man guitar vs Barasa, Waluke, Mabonga, Wanyama - all Tangatanga MPs in Bungoma. Rest of Ford-K crew of Wangamati, Wamunyinyi, Eseli sat it out after trying to overthrow Weta. The hustler dog-beating in Kabuchai is a surprise especially the 3-to-1 margin. Gusii 4-to-1 vs ODM rout is so bad. Gema split 50-50 contrary to Noway & Pundit hubris. Matungu outcome is unsurprising. Hustler has clearly made very slim headway in entire Luhya and Gusii. Gema are sliding from his grip.
Nationwide Ruto is ducking BBI bullet for a reason - fear of very bad rout. If he had done well in these byelections he would probably have gone full No. Now it back to basics.
Ruto on his own thinking is very good but if he listens to likes of Pundit school of thought he can get scathed here and there not bad but can dent the image he has built. I knew very well luhya and ukambani are no go zones but I think Ruto was pushed there by his advicers, its difficult to depend on those 2 kabilas. Going forward Ruto needs to ring fence Mlima and RV and spend final days in coast and NEP.
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The truth is that all politics is local and tribal.Mobutu has no chance outside the kalenjin rift.This preconcieved notion that he has eaten into railas base is neither here nor there.Rutos only hopes are with kikuyus WHO have proved shaky, but the moment they annoint one of their own,it will be game over for mobutu.
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I stopped at ODM won? How when the party cannot even field candidates in areas with sizeable Luos or luhyas? UDA indeed failed to get the momentum it needed - and this because the handshake crew balkanized and defended their home turf. There will be more by elections - we have many more coming on May.
What is important for Ruto to win PORK is that he start strong in RV - of 25% vote there - he should aim to close at 24%. From there it's adding 5% or 2% in the rest of the 7 old provinces and he nicks it.
Njuri this deflation of UDA momentum is actually a win for ODM. It was billed as handshake vs UDA showdown by Pundit himself - UDA spokesman on nipate - and all the fake analysts in media. Complete with multiple threads. Ruto was supposed to be doing so well in Bukusu - it was literally Weta one-man guitar vs Barasa, Waluke, Mabonga, Wanyama - all Tangatanga MPs in Bungoma. Rest of Ford-K crew of Wangamati, Wamunyinyi, Eseli sat it out after trying to overthrow Weta. The hustler dog-beating in Kabuchai is a surprise especially the 3-to-1 margin. Gusii 4-to-1 vs ODM rout is so bad. Gema split 50-50 contrary to Noway & Pundit hubris. Matungu outcome is unsurprising. Hustler has clearly made very slim headway in entire Luhya and Gusii. Gema are sliding from his grip.
Nationwide Ruto is ducking BBI bullet for a reason - fear of very bad rout. If he had done well in these byelections he would probably have gone full No. Now it back to basics.
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Ruto was cognizant of the fact all through - I heard him reaching out to the luhyas wasimtumie tu vibaya when in need.
They returned quite a clenched hand given the bbishiet wave in the county assemblies was hot off the serving plate.
Voters split in by elections and even in the General election for kanjora, MPs is common in cosmopolitan but the block still goes at the presidential level.
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Raila supporters now think they fully understand Mt Kenyas psychology.
Did you notice Raila and even Uhuru for that matter stayed away from these by election politics. Did you see Raila campaigning in these by elections. Does that say something ?
The truth is that all politics is local and tribal.Mobutu has no chance outside the kalenjin rift.This preconcieved notion that he has eaten into railas base is neither here nor there.Rutos only hopes are with kikuyus WHO have proved shaky, but the moment they annoint one of their own,it will be game over for mobutu.
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So based on these results we give it to Raila ?
70-20 :o 8)
At least ANC vs ODM is closer race, with UDA distant 3rd. :)
Pundit & Noway just wipe the smug - write off Luhya from Ruto column.
The electoral agency has declared Ford Kenya candidate Majimbo Kalasinga the winner of the Kabuchai MP race after he garnered 19, 274 votes.
Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) returning officer Benson Esuza announced on Friday morning that Evans Kakai of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) became second with 6,455 votes.
https://nation.africa/kenya/counties/bungoma/ford-kenya-s-majimbo-kalasinga-wins-kabuchai-mp-race-3312446
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Yes it's a rainy day for UDA momentum which is great news for ODM. If UDA had won say Hell's Gate and Kabuchai you would be spitting on us here. Hakungekalika. Instead now you are depressed :) - because it is clear hustler has only made some headway in Kwale with Mvurya. Luhya and Gusii is hard nut. Kamba is looking bad. Gema continue to slide away slow but sure.
Ruto has failed the first big milestone.
I still see it this way: hustler is an okay message but not nearly enough to propel Ruto to Moi 40% as Pundit dreams. With mere URP it will be so much tougher to attract serious partners as Kibwanas bolt. If Raila is able to cobble BBI lineup as we expect - all Kalonzos and Mdvds will act in their own best interest despite the sulking... because those flowergirls have no appealing plan nor coherent message to sell anybody.
Ruto of course is playing watermelon due to BBI fierce potency... this fact is very key.
So based on these results we give it to Raila ?
70-20 :o 8)
At least ANC vs ODM is closer race, with UDA distant 3rd. :)
Pundit & Noway just wipe the smug - write off Luhya from Ruto column.
The electoral agency has declared Ford Kenya candidate Majimbo Kalasinga the winner of the Kabuchai MP race after he garnered 19, 274 votes.
Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) returning officer Benson Esuza announced on Friday morning that Evans Kakai of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) became second with 6,455 votes.
https://nation.africa/kenya/counties/bungoma/ford-kenya-s-majimbo-kalasinga-wins-kabuchai-mp-race-3312446
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Makueni MCA... Wiper rout Muungano 10-0
Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka has put his foot down as the man to beat in Ukambani politics after his party easily retained Kitise/Kithuki ward seat.
Wiper’s Sebastian Munguti beat Governor Kivutha Kibwana’s Muungano’s party candidate Joseph Kioko and five other competitors in the by-election held on Thursday.
Munguti garnered 3,892 votes with Kioko coming a distant second with 878 votes in the poll that was seen as a contest between Kalonzo and Kibwana.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/counties/eastern/2021-03-05-kalonzo-beats-kibwana-in-by-election-to-reaffirm-grip-on-ukambani-politics/
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Raila has no game. I hear he abandon coast tour after lukewarm reception. The game everyone is waiting is in GEMA - and Uhuru wing. That you're convinced that GEMA will back Raila is insanity.
Ruto is out being his own man and growing his network - because COALITION are done in last Q of 2022. NOT NOW.
Now is the time to consolidate your votes and gather as much as you can - so when and if it comes to coalition - then it easy.
Ruto will aim to get as near 50% if not exceed before he does a coalition.
Now tell me you have camp of 7-8 people. And you have Ruto with 40% (let go for the minimum). Ruto just need to get 10% kind of guy and he nicks it. 7-8 guys even with BBI will not be enough to share the loot. Some of them like Weta will have to go for Speaker or something that innocuous.
So while you're happy that your guys are playing in their home turf and defending it...Ruto is on the assault...because hometurf is secured.
Yes it's a rainy day for UDA momentum which is great news for ODM. If UDA had won say Hell's Gate and Kabuchai you would be spitting on us here. Hakungekalika. Instead now you are depressed :) - because it is clear hustler has only made some headway in Kwale with Mvurya. Luhya and Gusii is hard nut. Kamba is looking bad. Gema continue to slide away slow but sure.
Ruto has failed the first big milestone.
I still see it this way: hustler is an okay message but not nearly enough to propel Ruto to Moi 40% as Pundit dreams. With mere URP it will be so much tougher to attract serious partners as Kibwanas bolt. If Raila is able to cobble BBI lineup as we expect - all Kalonzos and Mdvds will act in their own best interest despite the sulking... because those flowergirls have no appealing plan nor coherent message to sell anybody.
Ruto of course is playing watermelon due to BBI fierce potency... this fact is very key.
So based on these results we give it to Raila ?
70-20 :o 8)
At least ANC vs ODM is closer race, with UDA distant 3rd. :)
Pundit & Noway just wipe the smug - write off Luhya from Ruto column.
The electoral agency has declared Ford Kenya candidate Majimbo Kalasinga the winner of the Kabuchai MP race after he garnered 19, 274 votes.
Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) returning officer Benson Esuza announced on Friday morning that Evans Kakai of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) became second with 6,455 votes.
https://nation.africa/kenya/counties/bungoma/ford-kenya-s-majimbo-kalasinga-wins-kabuchai-mp-race-3312446
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Well Ruto 40% is imaginary at least for now. The dismal performance in entire western hemisphere is very bad sign. Of course there is going to be coalitions lead by Ruto and Raila - the big question is who has better strategy to cobble winning lineup. BBI is very potent plan - cause it much better than any MOUs - it in fact has rained hard on Ruto hustler rallying cry as everyone know they need to show some value to get a slot. That why they are all singing BBI including Kingi.
You see BBI is blank checkbook: Kingi and Johos and Mutuas want to be CS. Even Weta Senior CS does it. BLANK CHECKBOOK- from MCA to kingpins - noone can say no. Can you objectively explain away Ruto watermelon strategy? - if not fear of BBI popularity. You been clinging to court order for same reason- leading No is suicidal.
BBI-2022 combo - Gema or Kamba or anyone don't need to vote for Raila but their own man or interest. Even NEP can't let go of 35% and ward fund. Ruto got nothing to offer without hustler momentum.
Raila has no game. I hear he abandon coast tour after lukewarm reception. The game everyone is waiting is in GEMA - and Uhuru wing. That you're convinced that GEMA will back Raila is insanity.
Ruto is out being his own man and growing his network - because COALITION are done in last Q of 2022. NOT NOW.
Now is the time to consolidate your votes and gather as much as you can - so when and if it comes to coalition - then it easy.
Ruto will aim to get as near 50% if not exceed before he does a coalition.
Now tell me you have camp of 7-8 people. And you have Ruto with 40% (let go for the minimum). Ruto just need to get 10% kind of guy and he nicks it. 7-8 guys even with BBI will not be enough to share the loot. Some of them like Weta will have to go for Speaker or something that innocuous.
So while you're happy that your guys are playing in their home turf and defending it...Ruto is on the assault...because hometurf is secured.
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Again your theory major flaw remain - Gema elite and people trust deficit on Raila. Everything else your write then become flawed. Right now GEMA are running away from Raila and divorcing BBI from him. Now tell me when GEMA elite with Ruto's GEMA hustlers hot on their heels turn around and force GEMA to love Raila.
So for the sake of engaging in sane debate - Ruto, Raila, GEMA elite candidate - and the flower girls.
Once you accept such basis concept - we can debate the rest.
As for UDA in western - it didn't win - but it didn't flop. It like Kibra. But you won't know these things. Ruto is now permanent feature of Kibra because he will be there in general election.
Kabuchai is Weta home literally (split from Sirisia which he represented) - just like Raila's Kibra - and Ruto is giving them headache.
Ford-K just retained their seat.
If you were at zero - and score 30% - how is that a FLOP ?
Well Ruto 40% is imaginary at least for now. The dismal performance in entire western hemisphere is very bad sign. Of course there is going to be coalitions lead by Ruto and Raila - the big question is who has better strategy to cobble winning lineup. BBI is very potent plan - cause it much better than any MOUs - it in fact has rained hard on Ruto hustler rallying cry as everyone know they need to show some value to get a slot. That why they are all singing BBI including Kingi.
You see BBI is blank checkbook: Kingi and Johos and Mutuas want to be CS. Even Weta Senior CS does it. BLANK CHECKBOOK- from MCA to kingpins - noone can say no. Can you objectively explain away Ruto watermelon strategy? - if not fear of BBI popularity. You been clinging to court order for same reason- leading No is suicidal.
BBI-2022 combo - Gema or Kamba or anyone don't need to vote for Raila but their own man or interest. Even NEP can't let go of 35% and ward fund. Ruto got nothing to offer without hustler momentum.
Raila has no game. I hear he abandon coast tour after lukewarm reception. The game everyone is waiting is in GEMA - and Uhuru wing. That you're convinced that GEMA will back Raila is insanity.
Ruto is out being his own man and growing his network - because COALITION are done in last Q of 2022. NOT NOW.
Now is the time to consolidate your votes and gather as much as you can - so when and if it comes to coalition - then it easy.
Ruto will aim to get as near 50% if not exceed before he does a coalition.
Now tell me you have camp of 7-8 people. And you have Ruto with 40% (let go for the minimum). Ruto just need to get 10% kind of guy and he nicks it. 7-8 guys even with BBI will not be enough to share the loot. Some of them like Weta will have to go for Speaker or something that innocuous.
So while you're happy that your guys are playing in their home turf and defending it...Ruto is on the assault...because hometurf is secured.
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Ruto should make more appearances there, he will get his share.
In 1992 Luhya votes got split 3 Way - Matiba, Moi, Jaramogi
In 1997 Luhya Votes got split 2 Way - Moi , Wamalwa
In 2002 Luhya Votes got split 2 Way - Kibaki, Uhuru
In 2007 Luhya Votes got split 2 Way - Kibaki , Raila
In 2013 Luhya votes got split 2 Way - Raila , Mudavadi
In 2017 Luhya votes got split 2 Way - Raila , Uhuru
In 2022 It will be split - Ruto must get his share and he has to work for that. As it stands he has made good inroads , alittle bit of work and he will be fine.
70-20 :o 8)
At least ANC vs ODM is closer race, with UDA distant 3rd. :)
Pundit & Noway just wipe the smug - write off Luhya from Ruto column.
The electoral agency has declared Ford Kenya candidate Majimbo Kalasinga the winner of the Kabuchai MP race after he garnered 19, 274 votes.
Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) returning officer Benson Esuza announced on Friday morning that Evans Kakai of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) became second with 6,455 votes.
https://nation.africa/kenya/counties/bungoma/ford-kenya-s-majimbo-kalasinga-wins-kabuchai-mp-race-3312446
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Come on lets be serious for a minute here now, if I do maths, thats a partly 4659 votes cast. Evidence have it that they were being bribed by 2k per person an improvement from standard 1k in 2017 . Thats around 10 Million KSHS. Very affordable . Now in a general election these MCAs and Party Chairmans would not be able to afford it in a large scale . They are not Kenyattas family.
Gusii MCA... ODM tops - UDA distant 4th
ODM Party candidate Malack Matara put a sturdy lead to secure victory in the Thursday mini polls in Kiamokama, Kisii.
He garnered 1,907 votes, eclipsing his challengers with a strong margin, to secure victory for the Orange party.
The closest contestants Daniel Ondabu (PED) emerged second with 1,257 while Stephen Nyakeriga of New Democrats got 1,004 in to close the tally of the three best.
UDA's Nyandusi Nyakeramba - who had run-ins with the police in the morning hours - garnered a paltry 491 pushing his rank to a distant fifth.
A frictional start between the Tangatanga camp and delayed entry into the game limped the former tea director home with the paltry haul.
The seat was left vacant by the death of Kennedy Mainya (ODM) to Covid.
So lacklustre was UDA's candidate that he secured at 59 votes in a polling station outside his doorstep at Moremani area.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-03-05-odm-in-secure-lead-in-kisiis-kiamokama-by-election/
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Which "Gema elite" do you have in mind? You accuse Uhuru of enugu as he bend over for Raila. Waiguru, Kimunya, Kiraitu, Kimemia, Kamanda, Murathe, Wambugu, etc - all these folks have hosted or openly endorsed Raila on TV. I can share the videos. In fact Gema elite have gradually decamped from Ruto to Raila over 3 years and we can recap if you like. Ohoo MCAs were bribed with car grant :) - Ruto got like 10 MCAs in entire Mt Kenya. Nakuru BBI split strictly along Gema-Kalenjin line.
BBI is Raila baby. Saying Gema or Mijikenda or Luhya support BBI but not Raila is laughable - it like how Moi would support Uhuru but not Ruto - while it same coin. Raila is never seriously venturing into Gema cause he does not need to. If say PK get PM - Gema will vote PK not Raila - ditto for Gusii and shebang. No-brainer.
By-election... lack of win is a loss because hustler is supposed to beat tribe which it didn't. Optics - seem there are literally no hustlers in Gusii. Nax Gema split and BBI MCA lanslide shows there is no "ground" for people to gravitate towards Ruto - mere 1 year to elections.
Again your theory major flaw remain - Gema elite and people trust deficit on Raila. Everything else your write then become flawed. Right now GEMA are running away from Raila and divorcing BBI from him. Now tell me when GEMA elite with Ruto's GEMA hustlers hot on their heels turn around and force GEMA to love Raila.
So for the sake of engaging in sane debate - Ruto, Raila, GEMA elite candidate - and the flower girls.
Once you accept such basis concept - we can debate the rest.
As for UDA in western - it didn't win - but it didn't flop. It like Kibra. But you won't know these things. Ruto is now permanent feature of Kibra because he will be there in general election.
Kabuchai is Weta home literally (split from Sirisia which he represented) - just like Raila's Kibra - and Ruto is giving them headache.
Ford-K just retained their seat.
If you were at zero - and score 30% - how is that a FLOP ?
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GEMA elite are using Raila to fight Ruto; but they don't intend to support him; because it will be their waterloo; GEMA people do not want Raila. I don't know how this can be MADE CLEARER.Sick woman. Are you insane or totally incapable of reasoning.
GEMA elite - that include Uhuru - he is retiring - so it's not really his game - but the way I see - they have 3 options - Raila is out.
1) Option 1 - GEMA elite do what gema have always done - find their own candidate - raise GEMA nationalism - and ride that - for 2nd round contest. The problem is finding that candidate - unless they fish someone like James Mwangi - the existing bunch are all jokers who won't excite their own village.
2) Option 2 - Find proxy - weak proxy - I mean MaDVD or Kalonzo or Matiangi or even Gideon Moi (very much doubt) - support them - in the hope they will control the next gov. I think Daniel Moi showed nobody is really weak :)
3) Option 3 - Because GEMA laity are so much in love with Ruto - and they are swimming against the current - reconcile with Ruto. This is where the war currently is - the fight for GEMA heart and mind - btw GEMA elite and Ruto hustler nation.
Raila is not an option. End of the day - he need to be SOLD to GEMA people. They aint buying him. The gema elite FEAR Raila even more than their people.
Which "Gema elite" do you have in mind? You accuse Uhuru of enugu as he bend over for Raila. Waiguru, Kimunya, Kiraitu, Kimemia, Kamanda, Murathe, Wambugu, etc - all these folks have hosted or openly endorsed Raila on TV. I can share the videos. In fact Gema elite have gradually decamped from Ruto to Raila over 3 years and we can recap if you like. Ohoo MCAs were bribed with car grant :) - Ruto got like 10 MCAs in entire Mt Kenya. Nakuru BBI split strictly along Gema-Kalenjin line.
BBI is Raila baby. Saying Gema or Mijikenda or Luhya support BBI but not Raila is laughable - it like how Moi would support Uhuru but not Ruto - while it same coin. Raila is never seriously venturing into Gema cause he does not need to. If say PK get PM - Gema will vote PK not Raila - ditto for Gusii and shebang. No-brainer.
By-election... lack of win is a loss because hustler is supposed to beat tribe which it didn't. Optics - seem there are literally no hustlers in Gusii. Nax Gema split and BBI MCA lanslide shows there is no "ground" for people to gravitate towards Ruto - mere 1 year to elections.
Again your theory major flaw remain - Gema elite and people trust deficit on Raila. Everything else your write then become flawed. Right now GEMA are running away from Raila and divorcing BBI from him. Now tell me when GEMA elite with Ruto's GEMA hustlers hot on their heels turn around and force GEMA to love Raila.
So for the sake of engaging in sane debate - Ruto, Raila, GEMA elite candidate - and the flower girls.
Once you accept such basis concept - we can debate the rest.
As for UDA in western - it didn't win - but it didn't flop. It like Kibra. But you won't know these things. Ruto is now permanent feature of Kibra because he will be there in general election.
Kabuchai is Weta home literally (split from Sirisia which he represented) - just like Raila's Kibra - and Ruto is giving them headache.
Ford-K just retained their seat.
If you were at zero - and score 30% - how is that a FLOP ?
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This is your big prayer - pegged on court killing BBI. But BBI is already sold on ground... Ruto propaganda has been debunked. Now he has ombudsman and bloated parliament hence watermelon. All big fish but even some omena in Ruto camp are pro-BBI - all Raila need is to unveil the lineup. Without serious ground momentum - which now seem tall order - Ruto has nothing to offer anyone. Even Nanok and Mvurya will bolt like Kivutha - position themselves as influencer as they angle for MP/CS. Ala Kingi.
Parliamentary dilutes appeal of mass party like 2016-17 Jubilee - you need to be local kahuna to land MP and/or CS. Small cog in mega UDA is bad idea.
Again your theory major flaw remain - Gema elite and people trust deficit on Raila. Everything else your write then become flawed. Right now GEMA are running away from Raila and divorcing BBI from him. Now tell me when GEMA elite with Ruto's GEMA hustlers hot on their heels turn around and force GEMA to love Raila.
So for the sake of engaging in sane debate - Ruto, Raila, GEMA elite candidate - and the flower girls.
Once you accept such basis concept - we can debate the rest.
As for UDA in western - it didn't win - but it didn't flop. It like Kibra. But you won't know these things. Ruto is now permanent feature of Kibra because he will be there in general election.
Kabuchai is Weta home literally (split from Sirisia which he represented) - just like Raila's Kibra - and Ruto is giving them headache.
Ford-K just retained their seat.
If you were at zero - and score 30% - how is that a FLOP ?
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Is there a clause that say BBI won't include Ruto. BBI gives everyone a bigger pie. Now if Ruto will be at say 40% - and he has 5 positions to give to get 10% - who do you think will win.
BBI crew each come with 1% (johos, oparanyas, mutuas) 2% (Wetangulas, gideon moi,matiangi), 4% (maDVD), 8% (kalonzo), GEMA XYZ (someone gema elite will back against Ruto's hustler nation) (maybe 10-15%), Raila 20-25% (max).
Now tell me who is likely to benefit more from BBI :) :). Handshake crew need everyone on board.
Ruto need to tap 8% like Kalonzo for Prime Minister - something he won't get in BBI crew
So for Ruto it will be easy Ruto pork, Kiunjuri dpork, Kalonzo dpork, and game shot.
For handshake crew - they need Raila - as top - and they get problems immediately in GEMA - and then they basically need everyone else adding - if they lose Kalonzo with 8% - it become impossible. How will Raila convince the rest to keep supporting him :)
Which is why BBI crew want to kick Raila as asap...and try aim for 2nd round contest.
Raila I belief is busy with his own crew - Mutuas, Oparanyas, Kituyis, Joho- those are newbies - still excited to be pictured next to Babu.
That is real Raila BBI lineup...Raila will not have problem being head of such a ticket
Kalonzo, gideon, madvd, matiangi and Uhuru man - will make another BBI lineup - if they can agree who will deputize who.
Ruto will have his own BBI line up.
This is your big prayer - pegged on court killing BBI. But BBI is already sold on ground... Ruto propaganda has been debunked. Now he has ombudsman and bloated parliament hence watermelon. All big fish but even some omena in Ruto camp are pro-BBI - all Raila need is to unveil the lineup. Without serious ground momentum - which now seem tall order - Ruto has nothing to offer anyone. Even Nanok and Mvurya will bolt like Kivutha - position themselves as influencer as they angle for MP/CS. Ala Kingi.
Parliamentary dilutes appeal of mass party like 2016-17 Jubilee - you need to be local kahuna to land MP and/or CS. Small cog in mega UDA is bad idea.
Again your theory major flaw remain - Gema elite and people trust deficit on Raila. Everything else your write then become flawed. Right now GEMA are running away from Raila and divorcing BBI from him. Now tell me when GEMA elite with Ruto's GEMA hustlers hot on their heels turn around and force GEMA to love Raila.
So for the sake of engaging in sane debate - Ruto, Raila, GEMA elite candidate - and the flower girls.
Once you accept such basis concept - we can debate the rest.
As for UDA in western - it didn't win - but it didn't flop. It like Kibra. But you won't know these things. Ruto is now permanent feature of Kibra because he will be there in general election.
Kabuchai is Weta home literally (split from Sirisia which he represented) - just like Raila's Kibra - and Ruto is giving them headache.
Ford-K just retained their seat.
If you were at zero - and score 30% - how is that a FLOP ?
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Anything Kalonzo near Ruto is poisonus, that stamement Mt Kenyas should lie low is very brutal. Ruto is fine we should not make Uhurus mademoni mistake which made him to almost at fault lucky for Ruto to never recover from it.
Is there a clause that say BBI won't include Ruto. BBI gives everyone a bigger pie. Now if Ruto will be at say 40% - and he has 5 positions to give to get 10% - who do you think will win.
BBI crew each come with 1% (johos, oparanyas, mutuas) 2% (Wetangulas, gideon moi,matiangi), 4% (maDVD), 8% (kalonzo), GEMA XYZ (someone gema elite will back against Ruto's hustler nation) (maybe 10-15%), Raila 20-25% (max).
Now tell me who is likely to benefit more from BBI :) :). Handshake crew need everyone on board.
Ruto need to tap 8% like Kalonzo for Prime Minister - something he won't get in BBI crew
So for Ruto it will be easy Ruto pork, Kiunjuri dpork, Kalonzo dpork, and game shot.
For handshake crew - they need Raila - as top - and they get problems immediately in GEMA - and then they basically need everyone else adding - if they lose Kalonzo with 8% - it become impossible. How will Raila convince the rest to keep supporting him :)
Which is why BBI crew want to kick Raila as asap...and try aim for 2nd round contest.
Raila I belief is busy with his own crew - Mutuas, Oparanyas, Kituyis, Joho- those are newbies - still excited to be pictured next to Babu.
That is real Raila BBI lineup...Raila will not have problem being head of such a ticket
Kalonzo, gideon, madvd, matiangi and Uhuru man - will make another BBI lineup - if they can agree who will deputize who.
Ruto will have his own BBI line up.
This is your big prayer - pegged on court killing BBI. But BBI is already sold on ground... Ruto propaganda has been debunked. Now he has ombudsman and bloated parliament hence watermelon. All big fish but even some omena in Ruto camp are pro-BBI - all Raila need is to unveil the lineup. Without serious ground momentum - which now seem tall order - Ruto has nothing to offer anyone. Even Nanok and Mvurya will bolt like Kivutha - position themselves as influencer as they angle for MP/CS. Ala Kingi.
Parliamentary dilutes appeal of mass party like 2016-17 Jubilee - you need to be local kahuna to land MP and/or CS. Small cog in mega UDA is bad idea.
Again your theory major flaw remain - Gema elite and people trust deficit on Raila. Everything else your write then become flawed. Right now GEMA are running away from Raila and divorcing BBI from him. Now tell me when GEMA elite with Ruto's GEMA hustlers hot on their heels turn around and force GEMA to love Raila.
So for the sake of engaging in sane debate - Ruto, Raila, GEMA elite candidate - and the flower girls.
Once you accept such basis concept - we can debate the rest.
As for UDA in western - it didn't win - but it didn't flop. It like Kibra. But you won't know these things. Ruto is now permanent feature of Kibra because he will be there in general election.
Kabuchai is Weta home literally (split from Sirisia which he represented) - just like Raila's Kibra - and Ruto is giving them headache.
Ford-K just retained their seat.
If you were at zero - and score 30% - how is that a FLOP ?