Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on October 31, 2019, 08:29:37 AM
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Which economy is bad again.Today Safaricom will release their results
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See my earlier comment on the un-capping of interest rates.
Outliers like Safcom doesn't mean that the economy is booming... they are the only ones booming!
Kenya is broke(/n), get used to this ndugu!
I called this out over a year ago on this board that Kenya is broke and our borrowing binge on over-priced and sometimes un-required infra will do us in, it is here with us now.
We will require some serious shocks to get back.... and it is now that the bureaucrats are starting to admit what we have known for a good while now.
Which economy is bad again.Today Safaricom will release their results
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M-pesa growing 43% is not safaricom - those are kenyans - exchanging annually 80B dollars.Its good indicator of health of the economy. The only infrastructure that is un-required is Isiolo Aiport(Kibaki) and SGR from Naivasha to Duka Moja (25kms).
Taxes themselves are up - 43B - this quarter.
See my earlier comment on the un-capping of interest rates.
Outliers like Safcom doesn't mean that the economy is booming... they are the only ones booming!
Kenya is broke(/n), get used to this ndugu!
I called this out over a year ago on this board that Kenya is broke and our borrowing binge on over-priced and sometimes un-required infra will do us in, it is here with us now.
We will require some serious shocks to get back.... and it is now that the bureaucrats are starting to admit what we have known for a good while now.
Which economy is bad again.Today Safaricom will release their results
-
Mpesa is actually our de-facto national payment system that CBK was not imaginative enough to conjure. So literally the Mpesa transaction size is the size of our economic activity. Which is also why some school of thought is for another parallel service provider, since Safcom/Mpesa is not the regulator and therefore a profit making venture, there is a need to have a strong competitor to Mpesa for reason of arresting a monopoly and its risk tendencies and also from a technology perspective "a single-point of failure" in case of an outage, not forgetting the (unintended) consequences of having a monopoly player for a socially impacting service. It is even a national security issue.
M-pesa growing 43% is not safaricom - those are kenyans - exchanging annually 80B dollars.Its good indicator of health of the economy. The only infrastructure that is un-required is Isiolo Aiport(Kibaki) and SGR from Naivasha to Duka Moja (25kms).
Taxes themselves are up - 43B - this quarter.
See my earlier comment on the un-capping of interest rates.
Outliers like Safcom doesn't mean that the economy is booming... they are the only ones booming!
Kenya is broke(/n), get used to this ndugu!
I called this out over a year ago on this board that Kenya is broke and our borrowing binge on over-priced and sometimes un-required infra will do us in, it is here with us now.
We will require some serious shocks to get back.... and it is now that the bureaucrats are starting to admit what we have known for a good while now.
Which economy is bad again.Today Safaricom will release their results
-
Overall Safaricom revenues grew 5.3% - being most vibrant company in East and central Africa seems the fastest dwarf is starting to plateau or is it choking.
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MPesa transactions are not a measure of economic health. They grow as more and more businesses take up MPesa, more kids get IDs and Mpesa wallets and so forth
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They are good indicator for our subsistent and informal structures driven economy - though I do not understand how they treat sent and received amounts - comes out to me as double counting.
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Pumdit
It’s like saying ATMs grew by 5% in 1990s. People prefer convenience rather than the old ways of doing business. That’s y mpesa has cornered the mkt.
maybe in 20yrs it’ll be crypto
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(Money Supply)-M1,M2, and M3 like I checked were growing at healthy pace. In short all the anecdotal evidence of 'poor economy' is not really backed by empirical evidence. Yes the economy will slow down by 0.3-0.5% but KNBS attribute it more to rainfall than anything else.
Pumdit
It’s like saying ATMs grew by 5% in 1990s. People prefer convenience rather than the old ways of doing business. That’s y mpesa has cornered the mkt.
maybe in 20yrs it’ll be crypto
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(Money Supply)-M1,M2, and M3 like I checked were growing at healthy pace. In short all the anecdotal evidence of 'poor economy' is not really backed by empirical evidence. Yes the economy will slow down by 0.3-0.5% but KNBS attribute it more to rainfall than anything else.
Pumdit
It’s like saying ATMs grew by 5% in 1990s. People prefer convenience rather than the old ways of doing business. That’s y mpesa has cornered the mkt.
maybe in 20yrs it’ll be crypto
Normally when there's increase in money supply, interest rates would naturally fall. Why haven't interest rates fallen given the steady increase of money supply? The reason is the increase in money supply is driven by huge inflated budgets instead of money supply being driven by monetary policies. As a result the nominal gdp figures are also inflated i.e not being driven by productive levers of the economy. There's is increase of money supply but its ending up in corrupt individuals which has led to inflated assets (real estates) and loaded offshore accounts. Otherwise we should have seen a equally healthy increase in consumer spending.