Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on July 08, 2018, 09:43:42 PM
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We've got our meles zenawi and if Ruto keep at it for 10yrs - Kenya will overtake South Africa.
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Masai came with all canoon fooder but Ruto is on another level.
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SGR will break even in the next 2 years?? Really....? What sort of business does Ruto run/do? Does he understand break-even? Well, the business of shaking down (a 10% or the other) is very lucrative, you don't have to bother of top-line and bottom line. That railway wont break even even in 25years... and for the next 15yrs whatever its earning will only go towards servicing the interest on our loan, not anywhere near the principal. He would have been better off to say that infrastructure is key for a country's desire for development but that it will break even and be in profit zone in the next 2 years....isnt that the joke of the century??
And really there goes one of the most rudderless and uninspiring interviews I have watched ... the interviewer was either scared or in a hurry to read off the list of queries he had. Stage fright for landing a big gig? Nothing of substance came off that interview; and the biggest fraud was the ".... look into the camera and tell Kenyans that you have never defrauded.....". I would not want to be in Ruto's shoes even just the mere impression of being asked to make such a statement.
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There you go with nonsense - Chinese who gave us the loans - did their calculation - and they gave us 5 yrs to start repaying the principal. I think from what I have heard - as soon as SGR hit 10M metric tonnes annual - that will be break-even-point. That amount of cargo will be enough to repay construction cost( principal+interest (amortized to 40yrs!!)) and the running/operational cost. We were projected to hit 10M in 5yrs - but as of now - we will hit in 3yrs - 2yrs earlier. And beside if worst come to worst..that LOAN is insured. So we are OKAY.
The 10% most politician rationalize as consultancy or helping chinese go through gov red-tape/bottleneck. That is how Wanjigi use to make his money and that is probably Ruto gig. He can argue it's not theft or corruption. Without someone looking out for SGR - stories like standard sensational bullshiet about chinese sitting on their table or van (who bloody cares) or some wildlife or
conservation nonsense would kill such a dream infrastructural investment.
Mark Masai next time should understand that WSR is not run of the mill politician you face with cheap politics. He need to come prepare to argue serious stuff.
SGR will break even in the next 2 years?? Really....? What sort of business does Ruto run/do? Does he understand break-even? Well, the business of shaking down (a 10% or the other) is very lucrative, you don't have to bother of top-line and bottom line. That railway wont break even even in 25years... and for the next 15yrs whatever its earning will only go towards servicing the interest on our loan, not anywhere near the principal. He would have been better off to say that infrastructure is key for a country's desire for development but that it will break even and be in profit zone in the next 2 years....isnt that the joke of the century??
And really there goes one of the most rudderless and uninspiring interviews I have watched ... the interviewer was either scared or in a hurry to read off the list of queries he had. Stage fright for landing a big gig? Nothing of substance came off that interview; and the biggest fraud was the ".... look into the camera and tell Kenyans that you have never defrauded.....". I would not want to be in Ruto's shoes even just the mere impression of being asked to make such a statement.
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Infact the break-even-point is mere 5.5M metric tonnes.
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Not so fast!! Nonsense is exactly what you are saying.
Understand some basics.... the fact that we have a 5 year or is it now 3 year "grace period" doesn't mean that we don't pay it, it is simply delayed for you to get ready to start paying. Pundit, this railway is not for FREE! Insurance does not mean that we can default and we are ok!!! You rightly say that Treasury has given a guarantee. That means that we have given a sovereign guarantee to it and the Chinese will come for it and any other assets when we start defaulting like they have done with the port in Sri Lanka. Break even is when you are running a commercial enterprise and your REVENUE (Top-line) is matching your CAPEX & OPEX (I am sure you are aware of this). If we have amortised our repayment to 40yrs, i was just about right in saying the railway won't break even in 25yrs. For the first 18yrs we are only paying the interest to our loan (from the cargo volume revenues), not even the principal.... The principal repayments will have to be subsidised from other sources (taxes??); how is that breaking even?? If I am breaking even in year 3 of my loan solely from the project's returns, why stretch the repayment to 40yrs, why not pay it by year 7 for example?
Simply speaking, you are better off saying that this is a public (utility) infrastructure and typically is not quite a commercial venture in the strictest manner; but then the decision to invest in such must be guided by the cost benefit justification and our ability to pay for it from the exchequer (also called; taxes collected) without compromising other public services availability.
Do some bit of understanding of some of these concepts in international trade financing and sovereign guarantees (euphemism G2G - government to government for our Chinese loans).... we just escaped by a whisker with being slammed with a Shs. 30b demand on the Kinangop Wind project because the claimants couldn't sustain the argument that the "letter of comfort" by Treasury amounted to a guarantee by GoK. We were very very lucky on that. Turkana Wind is already cashing in on our GoK guarantee for their power even though it is not yet being delivered to the grid.
Where do 10m metric tonnes of cargo come from? Last I heard, we are struggling to hit our numbers... the reason why the government has been forcing importers to put their cargo on SGR even when it is uneconomical for some.
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I have done my bit to understand SGR - and I reckon that Nairobi-MSA is beyond doubt viable. These other sections to Naivasha has doubtful viability. Half the cargo in Mombasa terminate in Nairobi. The section all the way to Malaba - basically depend on Uganda/South Sudan traffic.
MSA-NBO -320B - will easily be repaid - if you amortized that loan to 4yrs - with half of it on nearly zero interest & other on 4%( or less) - then surely by 2060 - SGR/KR will have repaid the loan - without treasury chipping in as the guarantor.
Not so fast!! Nonsense is exactly what you are saying.
Understand some basics.... the fact that we have a 5 year or is it now 3 year "grace period" doesn't mean that we don't pay it, it is simply delayed for you to get ready to start paying. Pundit, this railway is not for FREE! Insurance does not mean that we can default and we are ok!!! You rightly say that Treasury has given a guarantee. That means that we have given a sovereign guarantee to it and the Chinese will come for it and any other assets when we start defaulting like they have done with the port in Sri Lanka. Break even is when you are running a commercial enterprise and your REVENUE (Top-line) is matching your CAPEX & OPEX (I am sure you are aware of this). If we have amortised our repayment to 40yrs, i was just about right in saying the railway won't break even in 25yrs. For the first 18yrs we are only paying the interest to our loan (from the cargo volume revenues), not even the principal.... The principal repayments will have to be subsidised from other sources (taxes??); how is that breaking even?? If I am breaking even in year 3 of my loan solely from the project's returns, why stretch the repayment to 40yrs, why not pay it by year 7 for example?
Simply speaking, you are better off saying that this is a public (utility) infrastructure and typically is not quite a commercial venture in the strictest manner; but then the decision to invest in such must be guided by the cost benefit justification and our ability to pay for it from the exchequer (also called; taxes collected) without compromising other public services availability.
Do some bit of understanding of some of these concepts in international trade financing and sovereign guarantees (euphemism G2G - government to government for our Chinese loans).... we just escaped by a whisker with being slammed with a Shs. 30b demand on the Kinangop Wind project because the claimants couldn't sustain the argument that the "letter of comfort" by Treasury amounted to a guarantee by GoK. We were very very lucky on that. Turkana Wind is already cashing in on our GoK guarantee for their power even though it is not yet being delivered to the grid.
Where do 10m metric tonnes of cargo come from? Last I heard, we are struggling to hit our numbers... the reason why the government has been forcing importers to put their cargo on SGR even when it is uneconomical for some.
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Pundit; Just as we were talking about these frightening Chinese loans, this here landed in my news inbox - FOOD for thought!
How China Got Sri Lanka to Cough Up a Port - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/world/asia/china-sri-lanka-port.html
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Don't see that as bad thing. It not that port is annexed - it just chinese taking over and running it for benefit of Sri Lanka economy. If Chinese want to come over and take over LAPSSET - let them do it. That too has doubtful viability. We call it private-public enterprises. Don't buy the nonsense from western media - China has done so much for global economy the last 20 yrs that Western world could never do - preferring to blow money in space stations instead of investing globally like chinese do.
SGR to Nairobi is so viable - we are ahead of schedule - 7 cargo trains now - going into 12 trains - despite all the teething problems. We are doing extremely well. Last mile in Mombasa has been sorted..now cargo can be offloaded direct from the ship to train..and if you nominate ICD embakasi - you cargo will be Nairobi the same day. This is breathtaking stuff...if you know in places like Nigeria or TZ...this could take 3-4 weeks.
Pundit; Just as we were talking about these frightening Chinese loans, this here landed in my news inbox - FOOD for thought!
How China Got Sri Lanka to Cough Up a Port - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/world/asia/china-sri-lanka-port.html
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Any wonder why we are struggling to pay our debt? - Treasury's debt rollover hits Sh202 billion in 5 months
https://www.nation.co.ke/business/Treasury-s-debt-rollover-hits-Sh202-billion-in-5-months/996-4653454-gqbrcr/index.html
Pundit; Just as we were talking about these frightening Chinese loans, this here landed in my news inbox - FOOD for thought!
How China Got Sri Lanka to Cough Up a Port - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/world/asia/china-sri-lanka-port.html
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You can take new loan or roll over debt (something our creditors seem more than happy to agree) - the same thing - as long as the debt financing doesn't exceed what is budgetted for - I don't see any crisis. The economy is kicking arse at projected 6.3% - and it could even be higher.
Any wonder why we are struggling to pay our debt? - Treasury's debt rollover hits Sh202 billion in 5 months
https://www.nation.co.ke/business/Treasury-s-debt-rollover-hits-Sh202-billion-in-5-months/996-4653454-gqbrcr/index.html
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On LAPSSET we are totally in agreement, I have no problem with giving the Chinese a concession for say 35years and have them come with their money, build it, look for the traffic (business) and hand it over to us at the end of their concession. It is their risk, their money; if they make money out of it or not.... it is not tied to our treasury and it is not a Kenya debt.
Don't see that as bad thing. It not that port is annexed - it just chinese taking over and running it for benefit of Sri Lanka economy. If Chinese want to come over and take over LAPSSET - let them do it. That too has doubtful viability. We call it private-public enterprises. Don't buy the nonsense from western media - China has done so much for global economy the last 20 yrs that Western world could never do - preferring to blow money in space stations instead of investing globally like chinese do.
SGR to Nairobi is so viable - we are ahead of schedule - 7 cargo trains now - going into 12 trains - despite all the teething problems. We are doing extremely well. Last mile in Mombasa has been sorted..now cargo can be offloaded direct from the ship to train..and if you nominate ICD embakasi - you cargo will be Nairobi the same day. This is breathtaking stuff...if you know in places like Nigeria or TZ...this could take 3-4 weeks.
Pundit; Just as we were talking about these frightening Chinese loans, this here landed in my news inbox - FOOD for thought!
How China Got Sri Lanka to Cough Up a Port - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/world/asia/china-sri-lanka-port.html
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Treasury guarantee is only way to re-assure investors we are confident about our economy. We are growing our economy and taxes. I don't see how future generation will not be able to repay measily 10B dollars. This will be chicken in 10yrs now - when Kenya economy will be so huge. Right now IMF estimate our economy to be 88B dollars (despite strengethening of dollar the last few yrs) - we have budget of 30B - taxes 17-20B - so basically there is nothing to worry about - treasury should take more gurantees - as long as we fix our judiciary - that turkana wind power is burning money because compensation is stuck in court - and ketraco cannot evacuate the power. If we don't sign gurantee then few investors will sink their money.
It a choice we don't have to make. If you're poor country or person, what risks do you really have? That you can borrow and become more poorer?, or richer. I think you got nothing to lose. We don't even have a shirt. Rich developed countries worry about losing stuff...we have no stuff to lose. If we lose LAMU port....to chinese..it something we didn't have.
On LAPSSET we are totally in agreement, I have no problem with giving the Chinese a concession for say 35years and have them come with their money, build it, look for the traffic (business) and hand it over to us at the end of their concession. It is their risk, their money; if they make money out of it or not.... it is not tied to our treasury and it is not a Kenya debt.
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I no longer strongly support the world class looting expert William Ruto. I'm lukewarm at best. Jubilee has been condemned by the independent anti-graft NGOs today as the most corrupt since independence. The pros of Ruto's efficiency are outstripped by the cons. Uhuruto lack the brilliant Kibakinomics yet are unquenchable hyenas. Ruto needs to tone down his extreme greed and hubris. He needs a shrink to tame the addiction. He can have a bot deposit fake billions in his Panama and Bermuda accounts... sort of like a fake e-cigarette used to deal with nicotine addiction. The nerves just need to register a huge deposit even if illegit or altogether phony.
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I no longer strongly support the world class looting expert William Ruto. I'm lukewarm at best. Jubilee has been condemned by the independent anti-graft NGOs today as the most corrupt since independence. The pros of Ruto's efficiency are outstripped by the cons. Uhuruto lack the brilliant Kibakinomics yet are unquenchable hyenas. Ruto needs to tone down his extreme greed and hubris. He needs a shrink to tame the addiction. He can have a bot deposit fake billions in his Panama and Bermuda accounts... sort of like a fake e-cigarette used to deal with nicotine addiction. The nerves just need to register a huge deposit even if illegit or altogether phony.
Ruto is pyschologically sick. Poverty real dehumanizes to a point where crazy greed take over. Ruto has full blown klepotomania. He needs a shrink and therapist. Biwott suffered from the same, he feared he go back to the crushing poverty he saw in his village. Gichuru grew up in chrushing poverty. One of his school mate's in mchinda high school told me gichuru would walk home 3 hours on foot daily because he didn't have funds for boarding school. The headmaster made an exception for gichuru, he would ask teachers to let him out after 3 pm so that he could walk home and make it before it was too dark. This chrushing poverty made gichuru hoard money and become a very corrupt man. His first wife told the court how gichuru would leave his office and come home for lunch so anxious to listen to 1pm news bulletin in hope moi won't fire him. Anytime a reshuffle was near gichuru would be so anxious he would cry and tremble in the toilet for hours
I pity ruto. He is really restless. His soul is chrushed.
He is unhappy and doesn't want to die they way his dad did and leave his kids poor
Poverty is crime against humanity
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I no longer strongly support the world class looting expert William Ruto. I'm lukewarm at best. Jubilee has been condemned by the independent anti-graft NGOs today as the most corrupt since independence. The pros of Ruto's efficiency are outstripped by the cons. Uhuruto lack the brilliant Kibakinomics yet are unquenchable hyenas. Ruto needs to tone down his extreme greed and hubris. He needs a shrink to tame the addiction. He can have a bot deposit fake billions in his Panama and Bermuda accounts... sort of like a fake e-cigarette used to deal with nicotine addiction. The nerves just need to register a huge deposit even if illegit or altogether phony.
You are a beautiful soul. The truth must stand the test of time.
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Pundit,
I think you have forgotten how tough life is for poor people. Corruption is not a game. It is a life and death matter for the nation and her citizens. When I left Kenya things were really bad. Everyone was staring at bleak future. I remember my experience getting a passport. Nyayo house was rotten. Somali refugees were clogging the hallways. The building was new but the toilets were hell..these morons had defeacated all over even the hallway to the toilet. I tried to go in and Somali teenager told me not to attempt as I would regret due to filth in those toilets..I think some guy chunga or some character was director of immigration.
I had a lot of hope for ruto in 2005 to 2008. However the more I talked to those that knew the guy the more scary the prospect of him being president became. Kibaki was a slothful fool. He placed ruto at the apex.
To me no way I would ever consider ruto. He is a flawed character. I would rather hold my nose and cast my vote for kalonzo
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Most people have not realized how ruthless and selfish Ruto is by launching his campaign for 2022 so early in Ouru's 2nd term with total disregard to how that would affect Ouru's 2nd term. Not that I care about Ouru's 2nd term that much but that is a window into Ruto's heart or the absence of it that scares the bedevil out of MKM. Ruto's raw ambition for power is only matched with his ambition to rapidly amass massive wealth in 5 years which took the Kenyatta's and the Moi's almost 50's to steal. There is absolutely no evidence that Ruto is interested or has any skills or plans to develop, unify or expand the democratic space in Kenya other than to acquire more wealth and to elevate his Kalenjin tribe even higher. He is an unforgiving dictator, full of hate, and therefore those individuals or communities who have crossed his path in the past must stop him at all costs from ascending to that powerful position or he will wipe them out of the face of this country. If Ruto runs, it must be a life or death battle to safe Kenya.
Pundit,
I think you have forgotten how tough life is for poor people. Corruption is not a game. It is a life and death matter for the nation and her citizens. When I left Kenya things were really bad. Everyone was staring at bleak future. I remember my experience getting a passport. Nyayo house was rotten. Somali refugees were clogging the hallways. The building was new but the toilets were hell..these morons had defeacated all over even the hallway to the toilet. I tried to go in and Somali teenager told me not to attempt as I would regret due to filth in those toilets..I think some guy chunga or some character was director of immigration.
I had a lot of hope for ruto in 2005 to 2008. However the more I talked to those that knew the guy the more scary the prospect of him being president became. Kibaki was a slothful fool. He placed ruto at the apex.
To me no way I would ever consider ruto. He is a flawed character. I would rather hold my nose and cast my vote for kalonzo
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I no longer strongly support the world class looting expert William Ruto. I'm lukewarm at best. Jubilee has been condemned by the independent anti-graft NGOs today as the most corrupt since independence. The pros of Ruto's efficiency are outstripped by the cons. Uhuruto lack the brilliant Kibakinomics yet are unquenchable hyenas. Ruto needs to tone down his extreme greed and hubris. He needs a shrink to tame the addiction. He can have a bot deposit fake billions in his Panama and Bermuda accounts... sort of like a fake e-cigarette used to deal with nicotine addiction. The nerves just need to register a huge deposit even if illegit or altogether phony.
It's vile. It's also silly to think someone that operates like that will somehow wake up and create a state in which people like him are found in jail and the Elon Musks and Bill Gates thrive.
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If Jubilee or Ruto has looted that much - to be described as the most corrupt - why is the economy growing at 6% plus - and why are we seeing "live live" transformation - with one of world fastest electrification, SGR - kenya largest public investment delivered on time, bla bla.I think Ruto "loots" coz he think he deserve a cut for his hardwork and in any case the money will be looted by someone else (most likely undeserving like Wanjigi).What is important is to realize all our politician are looters. They go in to loot. They go in to grow rich. And they soon realize to survive in politics they need tonnes of money. Therefore you've got to loot more.
Anyway for me I really don't care about the inputs, I care about the outputs. That is why I voted for Sonko. And I am seeing he is way better than Kidero. Ruto get stuff done. If he steals 10% of that, I don't care, I care about 90% he has delivered.
The biggest problem in Africa is NOT CORRUPTION. It is just that we produce so little. There are so many in-effective lazy politicians/carpenters or even bloggers - and having someone like Ruto is rarity - someone who actually wakes up 5am in the morning and get to gov job before dawn! Make sure he knows what goes on, the bottlenecks, ran gov, make things move etc. The average politician will wake up at 10 am and proceed to have breakfast and probably do 1 or 2 meetings a day - retire to drink or play golf.
If you produce little, and nothing get stolen out of it, you won't become rich. If you've hire people, you know you'd rather hire someone who steal a little but bring your more money, than bongolala who steals nothing and deliver nothing.
Foucs on OUTPUTS/OUTCOMES/DELIVERABLES. Not inputs. Who cares if sonko is a drug dealer if he can fix nairobi. I don't care if Ruto is "corrupt" as long as he is delivering the world fastest electrification, railways, roads and dams. Those are things I care about. Those are the tangible things.
If you steal and somehow deliver 10%growth rate YOY - then you are the hero. Ruto should focus on delivering tangible development and he can have the cream for himself - we will drink the milk. It all fair.
Augistino pinchoet looted but Chile thrived. Suharto of Indonesia looted so many billions but Indonsia is now well on it's way to developed nation.Ethiopia tigrays some claim have looted but Ethiopia has thrived.
You want a leader who is not only brilliant but also hardworking - and you've to one WSR.
I no longer strongly support the world class looting expert William Ruto. I'm lukewarm at best. Jubilee has been condemned by the independent anti-graft NGOs today as the most corrupt since independence. The pros of Ruto's efficiency are outstripped by the cons. Uhuruto lack the brilliant Kibakinomics yet are unquenchable hyenas. Ruto needs to tone down his extreme greed and hubris. He needs a shrink to tame the addiction. He can have a bot deposit fake billions in his Panama and Bermuda accounts... sort of like a fake e-cigarette used to deal with nicotine addiction. The nerves just need to register a huge deposit even if illegit or altogether phony.
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Suharto looted 35B dollars but through his leadership Indonesia economy sky-rocketed - so no problem if he skimmed off the cream.
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/indonesias-remarkable-economic-transformation/.
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Kenya economic growth hasn't averaged 6% under jubilee https://knoema.com/atlas/Kenya/Real-GDP-growth . To uhuruto development is grandiose project that are subsized by taxpayers so that they can claim to be the first in africa to do it. It is like in the 80's when moi was putting up monuments allover(nyayo) the country.Real economic growth is driven by increased productivity that result into increased incomes.
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Pundit is beyond help-blind as a bat when it comes to Ruto. There was no cream to skim, so he drunk the milk. As Dr. Ndii is asking, what is so valuable about a trip to from NBO to MSA that deserves 8k subsidy per trip.
Kenya economic growth hasn't averaged 6% under jubilee https://knoema.com/atlas/Kenya/Real-GDP-growth . To uhuruto development is grandiose project that are subsized by taxpayers so that they can claim to be the first in africa to do it. It is like in the 80's when moi was putting up monuments allover(nyayo) the country.Real economic growth is driven by increased productivity that result into increased incomes.
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I think you're unfair. You're comparing Kibaki figures post-revision (rebasing) and uhuru figures (pre-rebasing). Typically the recommended re-basing is every 5yrs. We cannot afford to do that - we do census every 10yrs & other critical surveys after long period - so you can bet our economy is already off (and as is most likely we are under-estimating) - so when the next rebasing happen - possibly around 2022 - we will discover Jubilee was doing so well.
Kenya economic growth hasn't averaged 6% under jubilee https://knoema.com/atlas/Kenya/Real-GDP-growth . To uhuruto development is grandiose project that are subsized by taxpayers so that they can claim to be the first in africa to do it. It is like in the 80's when moi was putting up monuments allover(nyayo) the country.Real economic growth is driven by increased productivity that result into increased incomes.
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We know from Moi what happens if you drink the milk. That should already have happened to us. Kenya economy as we speak is projected to grow at 6.3% - some institution are projecting even 7%!. Jubilee transformative agenda is there for everyone to see. You can start from devolution & ensuring all constitutional transition was done - to railways, roads, power & etc - and the very heart of this transformation is one William Ruto - the engine of gov who ensures everything ran so smoothly people don't even know.
This Jubilee administration has "get it done" mien that is very William Ruto. When these guys came - it use to take 2 weeks to clear stuff at mombasa - they went down and reduce it to 5 (now 3 days - before SGR). Whatever had been pending - digital migration of TV - done - changing from 8-4-4 to new systems - done - name it - done.e
There is a reason why Jubilee unlike many africa parties increased their votes in second term - from 50% to nearly 55% - and their parliamentary majority by huge margins. Kenya know when gov is working for them. Look at the roads...we had been stuck with expensive British roads design - Ruto comes and there is change of designs - now we are talking more 10,000 KMS of road under construction. From independence till Jubilee came - we had managed to tarmac about 12,000 Kms of Roads. Right now everywhere you go there is tarmacking of albeit low -seal roads. And JUbilee are targetting 30,000KMs of roads.
Those roads & electricity are things winning Jubilee votes. Those 30,000Kms road will win Ruto 2022 by HUGE MARGINS. The electricity coverage everywhere will be icing on the cake. The huge dams being build that will move water supply from 30% to 70% will win votes. The fact that everyone will have NHIF and will never worry about medical bills by 2022 will win votes. The fact that people will buy houses for 1m very soon will win votes.
You can talk bullshiet 24-7 of how Ruto is dangerous - but when people see tarmac & electricity & water in places they never imagine possible - they will line up and vote. Ruto may steal but he has the brains to deliver. People are very tired of empty manenos from Raila - and want likes of Sonko & Ruto who get sh.iet done. Nobody cares about their motives or their shortcomings - they want to gov services, they want development and transformation that is hard to beat.
You cannot out-argue a railway line or a road however much you try.
Pundit is beyond help. Ouruto did not wait for the cream, they drunk the milk. As Dr. Ndii is asking, what is so valuable about a trip from NBO to MSA that deserves 8k subsidy on SGR when poor people cannot afford basic health care, clean water or food.
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I think you're unfair. You're comparing Kibaki figures post-revision (rebasing) and uhuru figures (pre-rebasing). Typically the recommended re-basing is every 5yrs. We cannot afford to do that - we do census every 10yrs & other critical surveys after long period - so you can bet our economy is already off (and as is most likely we are under-estimating) - so when the next rebasing happen - possibly around 2022 - we will discover Jubilee was doing so well.
Kenya economic growth hasn't averaged 6% under jubilee https://knoema.com/atlas/Kenya/Real-GDP-growth . To uhuruto development is grandiose project that are subsized by taxpayers so that they can claim to be the first in africa to do it. It is like in the 80's when moi was putting up monuments allover(nyayo) the country.Real economic growth is driven by increased productivity that result into increased incomes.
Rebasing doesn't affect growth but size of the economy.
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Youre wrong
I think you're unfair. You're comparing Kibaki figures post-revision (rebasing) and uhuru figures (pre-rebasing). Typically the recommended re-basing is every 5yrs. We cannot afford to do that - we do census every 10yrs & other critical surveys after long period - so you can bet our economy is already off (and as is most likely we are under-estimating) - so when the next rebasing happen - possibly around 2022 - we will discover Jubilee was doing so well.
Kenya economic growth hasn't averaged 6% under jubilee https://knoema.com/atlas/Kenya/Real-GDP-growth . To uhuruto development is grandiose project that are subsized by taxpayers so that they can claim to be the first in africa to do it. It is like in the 80's when moi was putting up monuments allover(nyayo) the country.Real economic growth is driven by increased productivity that result into increased incomes.
Rebasing doesn't affect growth but size of the economy.
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I don't know what makes Pundit believe GoK functions because of Ruto. It functions in spite of him. Corruption while not the biggest impediment is a significant growth disadvantage. We know development depends on two things;
Infrastructure - Kenya's big infrastructure development started under Kibaki/NARC - not even NARA as some like to claim. Kibaki started the "working nation" and "looking East" agenda. Jubilee simply continued and has done well here. If this has been flawless and Ruto somehow made it happen - that's merely his JD not some magic for which he should steal our money. He should tell us he's justified to steal as a commission of his hard work and see how the confession goes down. I watched the NTV State of the Nation video and he vowed he has never stolen a coin... I threw up! :-\ Uhuru never bothers to claim he's clean... Ruto says it often and thinks people are stupid.
Stable judiciary - investors local and foreign always look for assurance. They know no supplier, or staff, or debtor, or govt official - will run off with their cash if the legal system works. This brings us to corruption which Ruto excels in. It's a virus that basically kills justice cause witness, cops, clerks, judges, jailers all are a chain in the link. It's pointless to take any thief to court in a corrupt country - and you have Ruto key guys like Murkomen and Duale opposing the war against corruption. So shameless.
Pundit seems to argue Ruto or Uhuru or politicians have a right to steal so long as they deliver. No, Pundit, Uhuruto have a job to create a working system where hard work is transparently rewarded - not dodgy "consultancy" - that does not depend on a super-Ruto to function. If D/PORK should be given 10% commission for delivery - put it to the vote. You say this so well and clear about Rwanda/Kagame - institutions equal sustainable growth - while lowering the bar for Samoei arap Ruto. I wonder why. 8)
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I believe (without sufficient evidence) that Ruto was the gov fixer - at least the first term - and ultimate supervised gok - making sure ministers & PSs were doing their job. That is why he arrives at his office before dawn - and that supervision - I also believe (without sufficient evidence) - gave him a chance to know where the cream was - and where he could skim it off.
Kibaki started looking east - but ultimately Jubilee went complitely east - after ICC debacle with west - and Ruto was originator of many ideas - including the big push for SGR and other infrastructure projects - including low seal roads and electrification.
Regarding corruption - at our stage of development/underdevelopment - corruption (just like robbery) is INEVITABLE. It can take the democratic form of kenya -where it's free for all - or the dictatorial kind in Rwanda or Ethiopia - where a tiny elite of Tutsi basically control everything - and "corrupt" everything to their advantage - leaving the majority tusti gnashing their teeth.
Uhuru should deal with corruption - to minimize it - and make it Rwanda type - just for a chosen few - and that I support him. Ruto is intelligent enough to know when to stop looting :) He has to stop now.
I don't know what makes Pundit believe GoK functions because of Ruto. It functions in spite of him. Corruption while not the biggest impediment is a significant growth disadvantage. We know development depends on two things;
Infrastructure - Kenya's big infrastructure development started under Kibaki/NARC - not even NARA as some like to claim. Kibaki started the "working nation" and "looking East" agenda. Jubilee simply continued and has done well here. If this has been flawless and Ruto somehow made it happen - that's merely his JD not some magic for which he should steal our money. He should tell us he's justified to steal as a commission of his hard work and see how the confession goes down. I watched the NTV State of the Nation video and he vowed he has never stolen a coin... I threw up! :-\ Uhuru never bothers to claim he's clean... Ruto says it often and thinks people are stupid.
Stable judiciary - investors local and foreign always look for assurance. They know no supplier, or staff, or debtor, or govt official - will run off with their cash if the legal system works. This brings us to corruption which Ruto excels in. It's a virus that basically kills justice cause witness, cops, clerks, judges, jailers all are a chain in the link. It's pointless to take any thief to court in a corrupt country - and you have Ruto key guys like Murkomen and Duale opposing the war against corruption. So shameless.
Pundit seems to argue Ruto or Uhuru or politicians have a right to steal so long as they deliver. No, Pundit, Uhuruto have a job to create a working system where hard work is transparently rewarded - not dodgy "consultancy" - that does not depend on a super-Ruto to function. If D/PORK should be given 10% commission for delivery - put it to the vote. You say this so well and clear about Rwanda/Kagame - institutions equal sustainable growth - while lowering the bar for Samoei arap Ruto. I wonder why. 8)
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Whatever unproven efficiency Ruto adds to GoK is voodoo. 2007 Kenya grew at 7% without Ruto. The mega corruption he champions undermines the economy in image, ratings, investor confidence. The fact that his key men can brazenly oppose Uhuru and threaten to sabotage GoK in stiff-necked opposition to lifestyle audit just shows his greed is more overpowering than his wisdom. He only tucked in the tail when he realized he would be the bigger loser in a war with Uhuru and Raila.
Gee man. So what should we do about corruption - fight only the small fish? Don't you see any problem to state this here as part of your argument? You can be clearer and say you support the war against corruption so long as Ruto is sacrosanct. You sound like Ruto - not even a mea culpa! Ruto actually believes he has the right to loot. I know stealing and violence are not sins in Kalenjin culture but Ruto is exposed enough to know Kenya cannot sustainably run like this. That he's too greedy to stop and has corrupted so many people is scary.
What would Ruto do as PORK?
During Moi and Kibaki Kenya used to rank 8th behind UG in graft. In 5 years of Uhuruto Kenya is now merely behind Nigeria and Afghanistan. While it's debatable what President Ruto might achieve, one certain thing is he would frogmarch Kenya to No 1 globally on corruption. Yup, we would easily be the most corrupt nation - how do you relate this to his miracles and efficiency? Sorry I don't see any efficiency as worth his level of sleaze.
I believe (without sufficient evidence) that Ruto was the gov fixer - at least the first term - and ultimate supervised gok - making sure ministers & PSs were doing their job. That is why he arrives at his office before dawn - and that supervision - I also believe (without sufficient evidence) - gave him a chance to know where the cream was - and where he could skim it off.
Kibaki started looking east - but ultimately Jubilee went complitely east - after ICC debacle with west - and Ruto was originator of many ideas - including the big push for SGR and other infrastructure projects - including low seal roads and electrification.
Regarding corruption - at our stage of development/underdevelopment - corruption (just like robbery) is INEVITABLE. It can take the democratic form of kenya -where it's free for all - or the dictatorial kind in Rwanda or Ethiopia - where a tiny elite of Tutsi basically control everything - and "corrupt" everything to their advantage - leaving the majority tusti gnashing their teeth.
Uhuru should deal with corruption - to minimize it - and make it Rwanda type - just for a chosen few - and that I support him. Ruto is intelligent enough to know when to stop looting :) He has to stop now.
I don't know what makes Pundit believe GoK functions because of Ruto. It functions in spite of him. Corruption while not the biggest impediment is a significant growth disadvantage. We know development depends on two things;
Infrastructure - Kenya's big infrastructure development started under Kibaki/NARC - not even NARA as some like to claim. Kibaki started the "working nation" and "looking East" agenda. Jubilee simply continued and has done well here. If this has been flawless and Ruto somehow made it happen - that's merely his JD not some magic for which he should steal our money. He should tell us he's justified to steal as a commission of his hard work and see how the confession goes down. I watched the NTV State of the Nation video and he vowed he has never stolen a coin... I threw up! :-\ Uhuru never bothers to claim he's clean... Ruto says it often and thinks people are stupid.
Stable judiciary - investors local and foreign always look for assurance. They know no supplier, or staff, or debtor, or govt official - will run off with their cash if the legal system works. This brings us to corruption which Ruto excels in. It's a virus that basically kills justice cause witness, cops, clerks, judges, jailers all are a chain in the link. It's pointless to take any thief to court in a corrupt country - and you have Ruto key guys like Murkomen and Duale opposing the war against corruption. So shameless.
Pundit seems to argue Ruto or Uhuru or politicians have a right to steal so long as they deliver. No, Pundit, Uhuruto have a job to create a working system where hard work is transparently rewarded - not dodgy "consultancy" - that does not depend on a super-Ruto to function. If D/PORK should be given 10% commission for delivery - put it to the vote. You say this so well and clear about Rwanda/Kagame - institutions equal sustainable growth - while lowering the bar for Samoei arap Ruto. I wonder why. 8)
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I don't know what makes Pundit believe GoK functions because of Ruto. It functions in spite of him. Corruption while not the biggest impediment is a significant growth disadvantage. We know development depends on two things;
Infrastructure - Kenya's big infrastructure development started under Kibaki/NARC - not even NARA as some like to claim. Kibaki started the "working nation" and "looking East" agenda. Jubilee simply continued and has done well here. If this has been flawless and Ruto somehow made it happen - that's merely his JD not some magic for which he should steal our money. He should tell us he's justified to steal as a commission of his hard work and see how the confession goes down. I watched the NTV State of the Nation video and he vowed he has never stolen a coin... I threw up! :-\ Uhuru never bothers to claim he's clean... Ruto says it often and thinks people are stupid.
Stable judiciary - investors local and foreign always look for assurance. They know no supplier, or staff, or debtor, or govt official - will run off with their cash if the legal system works. This brings us to corruption which Ruto excels in. It's a virus that basically kills justice cause witness, cops, clerks, judges, jailers all are a chain in the link. It's pointless to take any thief to court in a corrupt country - and you have Ruto key guys like Murkomen and Duale opposing the war against corruption. So shameless.
Pundit seems to argue Ruto or Uhuru or politicians have a right to steal so long as they deliver. No, Pundit, Uhuruto have a job to create a working system where hard work is transparently rewarded - not dodgy "consultancy" - that does not depend on a super-Ruto to function. If D/PORK should be given 10% commission for delivery - put it to the vote. You say this so well and clear about Rwanda/Kagame - institutions equal sustainable growth - while lowering the bar for Samoei arap Ruto. I wonder why. 8)
It's refreshing to see this from you :D . The African does just well as an individual. It's when it comes to running a society(which requires cooperation, in turn requiring predictability, itself requiring trust) that he fails dismally. He sucks at what makes homo-sapiens a successful species.
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I don't know what makes Pundit believe GoK functions because of Ruto. It functions in spite of him. Corruption while not the biggest impediment is a significant growth disadvantage. We know development depends on two things;
Infrastructure - Kenya's big infrastructure development started under Kibaki/NARC - not even NARA as some like to claim. Kibaki started the "working nation" and "looking East" agenda. Jubilee simply continued and has done well here. If this has been flawless and Ruto somehow made it happen - that's merely his JD not some magic for which he should steal our money. He should tell us he's justified to steal as a commission of his hard work and see how the confession goes down. I watched the NTV State of the Nation video and he vowed he has never stolen a coin... I threw up! :-\ Uhuru never bothers to claim he's clean... Ruto says it often and thinks people are stupid.
Stable judiciary - investors local and foreign always look for assurance. They know no supplier, or staff, or debtor, or govt official - will run off with their cash if the legal system works. This brings us to corruption which Ruto excels in. It's a virus that basically kills justice cause witness, cops, clerks, judges, jailers all are a chain in the link. It's pointless to take any thief to court in a corrupt country - and you have Ruto key guys like Murkomen and Duale opposing the war against corruption. So shameless.
Pundit seems to argue Ruto or Uhuru or politicians have a right to steal so long as they deliver. No, Pundit, Uhuruto have a job to create a working system where hard work is transparently rewarded - not dodgy "consultancy" - that does not depend on a super-Ruto to function. If D/PORK should be given 10% commission for delivery - put it to the vote. You say this so well and clear about Rwanda/Kagame - institutions equal sustainable growth - while lowering the bar for Samoei arap Ruto. I wonder why. 8)
It's refreshing to see this from you :D . The African does just well as an individual. It's when it comes to running a society(which requires cooperation, in turn requiring predictability, itself requiring trust) that he fails dismally. He sucks at what makes homo-sapiens a successful species.
Very true. Ergo, the fact that GoK needs Ruto's "efficiency" to function is a failure, not a success. Uhuruto have perfected a super corrupt system that depends on whims to function. Uhuru has finally woken up to this and decided slaying the monster is a worthy legacy than the Big 4... Ruto vehemently opposes the boss. Well, until he sensed the public's mood - even Kalenjin support the war on corruption. Even if Ruto's ambitions fall victim to the war, I still support it. For once we have institutions actually working... that's a first in Kenya.
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Focus on the output. If you ran a super-corrupt system and somehow manage to do what Jubilee have done - then I have no beef with that.You can have very little corruption and still remain a hell-hole. It's important to like Ruto said in the interview to focus on the output - not the inputs & internal processes (get lost in the details).
For example - KPLC - Inputs & processes are probably corrupt or corrupted - but Jubilee increased connection from 1.5-2M to now 6.5-7M in 5yrs (Output). That is amazing! It been touted as world fastest electrification - it's faster than when US was electrifying in 1930s. Jubilee moved electrification from less than 30% to 70% in 5yrs. Kibaki found electrification at 12% and he moved it to about 30%. That too was great. Jubilee are promising universal electricity coverage by 2022 - that will be about 85-95% of every kenyan household connected.
Here is World Bank praising Jubilee for world fastest electrification.
“In absolute terms, India is doing more on electrification than any other countries. Thirty million a year, is really an astounding performance and it stands out from the crowd,” Foster said.
However, India is not the fastest country in electrification. Bangladesh and Kenya, for example are faster in electrification than India. India, she said, is now entering final stage of electrification.
Look at roads - from before independence to Jubilee - we had tarmacked only 12,000Kms of roads. Jubilee are tarmacking around 10,000kms (5yrs) and targetting (30,000Kms). In 5yrs Jubilee will have brought bitumen standard roads to more places than 100yrs of previous governments. In 10yrs - they'd have done 3 times - what rest did in 100yrs.
Ruto has probably made tonnes of money selling poles to KPLC or winning contracts for his construction companies or kickbacks - but there is no denying that lot more millions of people have access to electricity and roads - maybe without corruption - they'd have done slightly more - say 75% instead of 70% - but moving it from 23% to 70% - is the elephant in the house.
Let us not get lost in nonsense - like who is most corrupt or not - when we know all that is our conjecture. The only corrupt people are those that have been found to be corrupt by a competent court and have exhausted all avenues of appeals & reviews. Those are very few now.
If after 5yrs - Uhuru come and say he fought corruption - and tout that as success without that fight reflecting in tangible outputs ( roads, rails, electricity, etc) - then he'd have failed. So fighting corruption is part of day to day activities (inputs) but ultimately he need to focus on the success. If his goal is to provide 500,000 units of housing and he think corruption like NYS will cripple it - then he should do it - together with what Ruto has been doing by ensuring their is strict supervisions & no lazy bones sleeping & letting targets fall below deadline. Corruption is one of risks that Uhuru legacy project will not see the light - but it's not the only one - the usual laziness or lack of seriouness & urgency from gov is probably the biggest threat.
Biggest threat in fighting corruption for it's sake is that it will make gov unable to move forward. People can't procure because they are afraid or the procurement take forever. People can make decisions because they could be arrested for merely sitting on some tender committe. I'd rather UhuRuto focus on delivery and see corruption as blocker - to be dealt with - on need by need basis - if corruption is stopping NYS from doing it's job - fix that - but if you go on a witch-hunt all over the gov - arresting people for show - then gov grinds to a halt.
Very true. Ergo, the fact that GoK needs Ruto's "efficiency" to function is a failure, not a success. Uhuruto have perfected a super corrupt system that depends on whims to function. Uhuru has finally woken up to this and decided slaying the monster is a worthy legacy than the Big 4... Ruto vehemently opposes the boss. Even if Ruto's ambitions fall victim to the war, I still support it. For once we have institutions actually working... that's a first in Kenya.
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This are the tell tell signs of a government in debt crises https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Uhuru--No-new-govt-projects-until-ongoing-ones-are-completed/539546-4673426-4j2e2s/index.html .The heavy spending hasn't led to private sector growth to pay up for debt. In addition the government is crowding out private sector.
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Very strange. I guess National Treasury are struggling to finance the new budget or Uhuru is trying to stall things as he tighten controls on corruption.I think Uhuru is trying to usurp the power of budget controller. Finance should focus on funding the budget. Projects will be started with express permission of Budget Controller.
This are the tell tell signs of a government in debt crises https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Uhuru--No-new-govt-projects-until-ongoing-ones-are-completed/539546-4673426-4j2e2s/index.html .The heavy spending hasn't led to private sector growth to pay up for debt. In addition the government is crowding out private sector.
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For once Kikuyu spokesman HK has spoken the truth.
The IMF mission was in Kenya and left without issuing its final report. Shortly after we had Uhuru freeze new projects.
We had seen some really bad taxation plans in the budget proposals which Uhuru breathlessly rushed through parliament and signed in as if possessed. The mistakes made and the shortcuts used led to the high court striking out a number awaiting full litigation.
I see no reason to argue with HK. It is simple logic: If there is money why stop new projects and risk worsening the absorption capacity that has never really been up to scratch?
Binge looting is slowly coming to an end. The party arising from the spending of the loot will soon stop. Uhuru's freezing of projects serves as an alert that this is the last song before the music is switched off.
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Doesn't make sense that kenya is struggling in a year where agriculture is doing so well, economy is already projected to grow past 6%, and KRA while struggling still collecting 14B dollars - this year they want to try $17B (bit ambitious), SGR is already at 5yr projected cargo and will turn profitable this year, KSHS is strongest currency now in Africa against USD, remittance (mostly money stashed abroad) are pouring in at double the rate, I mean everything is looking up for kenya economic wise - except exports that continue to dip.
Obviously IMF want kenya to do stupid things 1) to reduce deficit - meaning cutting development & social programs - borrow less from chinese & domestically
2) to remove interest capping. All these so they can give us a stand by facility of mere 1.5B dollars to protect Kshs (which is already strong). I don't see either of IMF nonsense happening - Parliament will not reverse the interest capping nor reduce it's deficit (budget making is no longer treasury job) - Treasury just has to reform KRA and Uhuru has to deal with graft.
I'd rather private sector struggle - then shackle kenyans with bank interest of 25% like most countries in Africa! Our banks have made super-normal profit for nearly 30yrs - it time for their music to stop. No private sector can make money from borrowing at 25%!
Uhuru I hope is enforcing stringent measures as part of the procurement & tendering overhaul. I hope he is stopping the taps from running so he can seal the loopholes. Once everyone dealing with public money is vetted afresh, new controls are in place and IFMIS is deployed everywhere & secured - then I hope kenya can continue to invest more.
For once Kikuyu spokesman HK has spoken the truth.
The IMF mission was in Kenya and left without issuing its final report. Shortly after we had Uhuru freeze new projects.
We had seen some really bad taxation plans in the budget proposals which Uhuru breathlessly rushed through parliament and signed in as if possessed. The mistakes made and the shortcuts used led to the high court striking out a number awaiting full litigation.
I see no reason to argue with HK. It is simple logic: If there is money why stop new projects and risk worsening the absorption capacity that has never really been up to scratch?
Binge looting is slowly coming to an end. The party arising from the spending of the loot will soon stop. Uhuru's freezing of projects serves as an alert that this is the last song before the music is switched off.
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For once Kikuyu spokesman HK has spoken the truth.
The IMF mission was in Kenya and left without issuing its final report. Shortly after we had Uhuru freeze new projects.
We had seen some really bad taxation plans in the budget proposals which Uhuru breathlessly rushed through parliament and signed in as if possessed. The mistakes made and the shortcuts used led to the high court striking out a number awaiting full litigation.
I see no reason to argue with HK. It is simple logic: If there is money why stop new projects and risk worsening the absorption capacity that has never really been up to scratch?
Binge looting is slowly coming to an end. The party arising from the spending!!! of the loot will soon stop. Uhuru's freezing of projects serves as an alert that this is the last song before the music is switched off.
I am not a kikuyu spokesperson!!! I know its in jest . Jubilee government is probably the worst regime managing fiscal policies. In september Rotich will be forced to VAT fuel which will cripple the economy further.
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There is no evidence that our macro-economic have worsened under Jubilee. In fact compared to what has happened to rest of Africa - Kenya is shinning star. In the period of global chaos - Kenya has managed to keep inflation under control, protected Kshs with admirable tenacity, kept interest rate under control & even capped it without adverse effects, economic growth has only been second best to likes of Ethiopia/Rwanda/TZ, yeah public debt has risen but if you remove SGR from treasury - it been pretty under control.
South Africa, Nigeria, Angola, Ethiopia, Egypt and name them - would love to be where we are - all of them in the last 5yrs of Jubilee regime - have been in crisis after crisis.
Such a shame that Treasury has listened to IMF and enforce stupid things like VAT on fuel. The sooner Treasury ignores IMF - the better for our economy.
I am not a kikuyu spokesperson!!! I know its in jest . Jubilee government is probably the worst regime managing fiscal policies. In september Rotich will be forced to VAT fuel which will cripple the economy further.
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The freeze is to stop Ruto from launching "projects" aka campaigning. He's now left with harambees which will further expose him as a fraud. He's headed to Kilifi next week for bible translation harambee :)
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Cynical. He can always launch completed projects. He can go on supervision tours. I think stopping Ruto from campaigning is nearly impossible. He simply cannot stop. Maybe somehow cutting his finances - I don't know how - will cripple him. Ruto is laser focussed on 2022 and as it get draws nearer - he is going to accelerate campaigning.
The freeze is to stop Ruto from launching "projects" aka campaigning. He's now left with harambees which will further expose him as a fraud. He's headed to Kilifi next week for bible trasnslation harambee :)
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Without projects to launch Ruto's national fundraisers will cement his position as unparalleled thief. Already he holds the trophy as the most corrupt Kenyan in history - beats Jomo hands down. Africa-wide he closely trails Mobutu and Abacha.
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The aim is to further taint his reputation as corrupt... with all the harambees. "Huyo mwizi akija hapa na pesa kwa gunia... kula pesa ni yako... usipigie yeye kura." Ruto despite the personal denials really muddied himself by Sudi, Cherargei, Murkomen, Duale resisting lifestyle audit. Kenyans overwhelmingly want graft tamed. He also still seems laser focused on Raila. There must be inside grapevine that 2022 will be Ruto v Raila.
Cynical. He can always launch completed projects. He can go on supervision tours. I think stopping Ruto from campaigning is nearly impossible. He simply cannot stop. Maybe somehow cutting his finances - I don't know how - will cripple him. Ruto is laser focussed on 2022 and as it get draws nearer - he is going to accelerate campaigning.
The freeze is to stop Ruto from launching "projects" aka campaigning. He's now left with harambees which will further expose him as a fraud. He's headed to Kilifi next week for bible trasnslation harambee :)
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Ruto will be arrested in due course
https://www.mwakilishi.com/article/kenya-news/2018-07-20/were-coming-for-you-raila-tells-graft-lords?cid=h
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Issues have never mattered in kenya - unless it's the issue Uhuru want to use to "convince" gema to to back out of 2022 deal - more like the "mau issues".
The aim is to further taint his reputation as corrupt... with all the harambees. "Huyo mwizi akija hapa na pesa kwa gunia... kula pesa ni yako... usipigie yeye kura." Ruto despite the personal denials really muddied himself by Sudi, Cherargei, Murkomen, Duale resisting lifestyle audit. Kenyans overwhelmingly want graft tamed. He also still seems laser focused on Raila. There must be inside grapevine that 2022 will be Ruto v Raila.
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Rotich is the new controller of budget from that directive
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precisely.
Rotich is the new controller of budget from that directive
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Without projects to launch Ruto's national fundraisers will cement his position as unparalleled thief. Already he holds the trophy as the most corrupt Kenyan in history - beats Jomo hands down. Africa-wide he closely trails Mobutu and Abacha.
Apostasy is worse than blasphemy :D.
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There is no evidence that our macro-economic have worsened under Jubilee. In fact compared to what has happened to rest of Africa - Kenya is shinning star. In the period of global chaos - Kenya has managed to keep inflation under control, protected Kshs with admirable tenacity, kept interest rate under control & even capped it without adverse effects, economic growth has only been second best to likes of Ethiopia/Rwanda/TZ, yeah public debt has risen but if you remove SGR from treasury - it been pretty under control.
South Africa, Nigeria, Angola, Ethiopia, Egypt and name them - would love to be where we are - all of them in the last 5yrs of Jubilee regime - have been in crisis after crisis.
Such a shame that Treasury has listened to IMF and enforce stupid things like VAT on fuel. The sooner Treasury ignores IMF - the better for our economy.
Treasury needs that $1.5b loan to protect kenya shilling especially starting next year when foreign debts repayment starts. Otherwise it'll weaken to below 120 to the dollar with crazy inflation consequences. The condition is to cut budget deficit to below 4% meaning all those projects wont get financed unless the private sector really takes off. The capping of interest rates has given treasury leeway to borrow locally cheaply without interest exploding to 20% but the consequences has been crowding out of private sector. Most of jubilee projects haven't panned out e.g Electric connections has led to high energy rates as heavy users subsidize new connections. This means cost of production has gone up.
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Hk,
No need of wasting time with pundit. He joined jubilee cult and became crazy
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Apostasy is worse than blasphemy :D.
Meaning?
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GEMA don't need convincing. Already the MPs have gone AWOL on Ruto. Uhuru's aiming for the swing zones that Ruto's been courting with "development". It becomes hard to market himself with the wrong headlines. I think Uhuru and Raila have struck a deal beyond AU roving ambassador that has Ruto worried because he doesn't know what it is.
Issues have never mattered in kenya - unless it's the issue Uhuru want to use to "convince" gema to to back out of 2022 deal - more like the "mau issues".
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Standby facility was relevant only when USD was strengthening against nearly all currency 2 yrs ago. Right now we have so much forex I don't know why Treasury is panicking. We have nearly 6 months forex cover - against 3-4 months - At one point our forex rose to nearly 10B dollars. Therefore fx risks are very minimal.
Treasury needs that $1.5b loan to protect kenya shilling especially starting next year when foreign debts repayment starts. Otherwise it'll weaken to below 120 to the dollar with crazy inflation consequences. The condition is to cut budget deficit to below 4% meaning all those projects wont get financed unless the private sector really takes off. The capping of interest rates has given treasury leeway to borrow locally cheaply without interest exploding to 20% but the consequences has been crowding out of private sector. Most of jubilee projects haven't panned out e.g Electric connections has led to high energy rates as heavy users subsidize new connections. This means cost of production has gone up.
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Ruto is competing against nobody as of now. Once Uhuru declare what he wants - then we can analyze it. For now I am not sure what he wants - I think part of him want to extend his stay in power via constitutional amendment - while part of him is committed to Ruto deal.
GEMA don't need convincing. Already the MPs have gone AWOL on Ruto. Uhuru's aiming for the swing zones that Ruto's been courting with "development". It becomes hard to market himself with the wrong headlines. I think Uhuru and Raila have struck a deal beyond AU roving ambassador that has Ruto worried because he doesn't know what it is.