Nipate

Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: gout on September 26, 2017, 11:06:22 AM

Title: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on September 26, 2017, 11:06:22 AM
As a prophet of doom there is likely a serious economic crisis in 2018 and beyond. Extended drought, these loans and probable diversion of funds to campaigns.

With the window open to print new constitutionally compliant notes this may offer relief or mess up things completely. It is going to be a rough road

Quote
The Treasury has in the past one month also resumed its uptake of the overdraft facility at CBK in a bid to cover some of the budget deficit.
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/news/Domestic-debt-jumps-Sh36bn-in-two-weeks-on-repeat-poll-budget/3815534-4112216-iqwiv1/index.html
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: patel on September 26, 2017, 03:56:24 PM
Keep monitoring the shilling vs dollar once it breaks past 105 then 110 then it's game over...
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Omollo on September 26, 2017, 05:21:32 PM
Uhuru and Ruto basically decided to steal public funds to finance their campaign. Towards the end of the July the resorted to looting. The idea was that they had the whole thing under wraps. They were going to rig and Kenyans would remain quiet and subdued. They would browbeat Raila, call him names and generally get away with the heist.

On the little detail of theft, they would fix the whole thing. A new Auditor General would rubber stamp everything. A massive media campaign would promote optimism in the economy and they would borrow more money to fill up the holes. They also expected the Turkana oil to start being pumped and that would bring in the petro dollars.

As you know things simply went south. They were caught stealing. What is more, the judges refused bribes and were ready to be killed for their values.

The NIS promised to get them to read the Njoki judgement and even smuggled it inside the court. They refused. Jomo Gecaga came to Maraga's office to issue threats: Maraga refused. But somehow he assumed he had succeeded. They were celebrating at State House

So when Maraga entered the court room to read the majority opinion, it came as a lightening bolt.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: patel on September 26, 2017, 11:38:53 PM
That's explains the insult from yule jamaa mtoto wa ubwa.....things are thick on the ground, we are hurting too but we are ready to endure short term pain for long term gain.

 
Uhuru and Ruto basically decided to steal public funds to finance their campaign. Towards the end of the July the resorted to looting. The idea was that they had the whole thing under wraps. They were going to rig and Kenyans would remain quiet and subdued. They would browbeat Raila, call him names and generally get away with the heist.

On the little detail of theft, they would fix the whole thing. A new Auditor General would rubber stamp everything. A massive media campaign would promote optimism in the economy and they would borrow more money to fill up the holes. They also expected the Turkana oil to start being pumped and that would bring in the petro dollars.

As you know things simply went south. They were caught stealing. What is more, the judges refused bribes and were ready to be killed for their values.

The NIS promised to get them to read the Njoki judgement and even smuggled it inside the court. They refused. Jomo Gecaga came to Maraga's office to issue threats: Maraga refused. But somehow he assumed he had succeeded. They were celebrating at State House

So when Maraga entered the court room to read the majority opinion, it came as a lightening bolt.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on September 28, 2017, 04:52:00 PM

Quote
The Treasury has cut development spending by Sh30 billion for the current financial year through a mini-budget in what could dim economic growth and jobs creation.

The mini-budget, which was tabled in Parliament yesterday, indicates that project spending will drop from the initial budget of Sh642 billion to Sh612 billion.

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/economy/Repeat-poll-Sh30-billion-development-budget-cut/3946234-4115572-ltqa1h/index.html
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Georgesoros on September 29, 2017, 12:12:11 AM
My neighbors kids have no jobs, neither are there any prospects. They are fully depended on their parents. It used to be the other way. The good thing is the economy will soon bring great jobs. Meanwhile, let them eat dirt.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Kichwa on September 29, 2017, 05:21:37 AM
Unemployed youth is what Ouruto needs to be scared of and not Raila. The out number the police by 100:1 and they are getting more desperate and with almost nothing to loose.

My neighbors kids have no jobs, neither are there any prospects. They are fully depended on their parents. It used to be the other way. The good thing is the economy will soon bring great jobs. Meanwhile, let them eat dirt.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Omollo on September 29, 2017, 12:41:49 PM
It is such a nice time to repatriate cash from abroad.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on September 30, 2017, 12:33:42 PM
'Emerging priorities' with shrinking revenues. Austerity and capitalism do not mix.

Quote
“Given that the economy has not generated new resources to finance the emerging needs, we are proposing to re-organise the planned expenditures for the financial year”.
In the brief dated September 25, he has also asked accounting officers to reduce their spending in a series of austerity measures on 13 areas.

For instance, budgets for domestic travel and subsistence costs have been reduced by 20 percent while all others, such as routine maintenance, purchase of vehicles, training, hospitality, advertising and several others have been slashed by 75 percent.

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Stalemate-over-fresh-poll-takes-toll-on-businesses/1056-4118168-format-xhtml-paqfdfz/index.html
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Georgesoros on October 03, 2017, 06:17:51 PM
How come counties did not get their allotment?
Govt should run even though elections are going on.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: patel on October 03, 2017, 06:58:04 PM
Nikubaya...businesses slowly grinding to a halt soon the bottom will fall out. All eyes on the dollar.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: hk on October 03, 2017, 07:52:42 PM
'Emerging priorities' with shrinking revenues. Austerity and capitalism do not mix.

Quote
“Given that the economy has not generated new resources to finance the emerging needs, we are proposing to re-organise the planned expenditures for the financial year”.
In the brief dated September 25, he has also asked accounting officers to reduce their spending in a series of austerity measures on 13 areas.

For instance, budgets for domestic travel and subsistence costs have been reduced by 20 percent while all others, such as routine maintenance, purchase of vehicles, training, hospitality, advertising and several others have been slashed by 75 percent.

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Stalemate-over-fresh-poll-takes-toll-on-businesses/1056-4118168-format-xhtml-paqfdfz/index.html
Cutting out waste and running a lean system is good a thing. This should have been the norm, there's so much waste in government that need to be cut out. This if done properly as a private struggling company would, it could yield huge savings reducing need for debt  and high taxation. It'd be interesting to find out what percentage of development funds was utilized in last yr budget and how much is lying idle, yet every week treasury is going to the market to raise debt.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: hk on October 03, 2017, 07:56:43 PM
How come counties did not get their allotment?
Govt should run even though elections are going on.
It's a supplementary budget, meaning additional funds that were not earlier allocated.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: hk on October 03, 2017, 08:01:27 PM
Nikubaya...businesses slowly grinding to a halt soon the bottom will fall out. All eyes on the dollar.
CBK has $7.5b reserve http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/news/Forex-reserve-rises-above-five-months-of-import-cover/3815534-4101474-pkpmbk/index.html and increasing. Because with economic slowdown it means even imports have reduced which is leading to increased dollar reserve thus buttressing the shilling.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Georgesoros on October 03, 2017, 08:22:30 PM
How come counties did not get their allotment?
Govt should run even though elections are going on.
It's a supplementary budget, meaning additional funds that were not earlier allocated.

Am not sure I agree with the way central govt just dishes out money on the hope that counties will use the money well. Most counties have not even come up with plans for basic instructor - water. Instead they are busy buying the biggest SUVs. Central should come up with partnerships where they can contribute 50% to a project if the county can raise another 50%. You'll see more projects coming up if they use their model. AM sure Uhuru or Ruto do not have any idea of such.

The idea of borrowing money and throwing it at counties will never work as long as most of these MCAs have no experience running anything.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Kichwa on October 03, 2017, 08:49:07 PM
How come counties did not get their allotment?
Govt should run even though elections are going on.
It's a supplementary budget, meaning additional funds that were not earlier allocated.

Am not sure I agree with the way central govt just dishes out money on the hope that counties will use the money well. Most counties have not even come up with plans for basic instructor - water. Instead they are busy buying the biggest SUVs. Central should come up with partnerships where they can contribute 50% to a project if the county can raise another 50%. You'll see more projects coming up if they use their model. AM sure Uhuru or Ruto do not have any idea of such.

The idea of borrowing money and throwing it at counties will never work as long as most of these MCAs have no experience running anything.

The constitution requires the national government to dish out the money.  If the national government and all the other independent bodies-auditors, DPP, parliament, judiciary, EACC, were all doing their jobs combined with a vigilant public then there would be no problem.

Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: hk on October 03, 2017, 08:53:27 PM
How come counties did not get their allotment?
Govt should run even though elections are going on.
It's a supplementary budget, meaning additional funds that were not earlier allocated.

Am not sure I agree with the way central govt just dishes out money on the hope that counties will use the money well. Most counties have not even come up with plans for basic instructor - water. Instead they are busy buying the biggest SUVs. Central should come up with partnerships where they can contribute 50% to a project if the county can raise another 50%. You'll see more projects coming up if they use their model. AM sure Uhuru or Ruto do not have any idea of such.

The idea of borrowing money and throwing it at counties will never work as long as most of these MCAs have no experience running anything.
There's the office of controller of budget that oversees national and county government. Besides how are MCA different from Mps who have to approve national budgets?
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Georgesoros on October 04, 2017, 04:28:31 PM
How come counties did not get their allotment?
Govt should run even though elections are going on.


It's a supplementary budget, meaning additional funds that were not earlier allocated.

Am not sure I agree with the way central govt just dishes out money on the hope that counties will use the money well. Most counties have not even come up with plans for basic instructor - water. Instead they are busy buying the biggest SUVs. Central should come up with partnerships where they can contribute 50% to a project if the county can raise another 50%. You'll see more projects coming up if they use their model. AM sure Uhuru or Ruto do not have any idea of such.

The idea of borrowing money and throwing it at counties will never work as long as most of these MCAs have no experience running anything.
There's the office of controller of budget that oversees national and county government. Besides how are MCA different from Mps who have to approve national budgets?

HK
The standard of governing Kenya keeps going down every year. Most MPigs have no experience running any govt, so they have no knowledge how to make laws or even enforcement. They don't even have any exposure to govt besides the fact that they have amassed money from flipping a few properties. The current system where money is just given to counties with no audit as to where it is going only works to the benefit of Waigurus. It will continue to go into peoples pockets thru inflated contracts etc. Meanwhile the Chinese want their loans repaid. For the past 5yrs is there any county that has vigorously focused on basic infrastructure? I remember Mutua did try but got distracted and reverted to doing nothing.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Omollo on October 04, 2017, 04:40:43 PM
(http://omollosview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/credit-rating.jpg)
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Omollo on October 04, 2017, 04:51:23 PM
Quote
Rating Action: Moody's places Kenya's B1 rating on review for downgrade
Global Credit Research - 02 Oct 2017
New York, October 02, 2017 -- Moody's Investors Service has today placed the B1 long-term issuer rating of the government of Kenya on review for downgrade.

The decision to place the rating on review for downgrade was prompted by the following key drivers:

1) Persistent, large, primary deficits and high borrowing costs continue to drive government indebtedness higher

2) Government liquidity pressures risk rising in the face of increasingly large financing needs

3) Uncertainties weigh over the future direction of economic and fiscal policy, in part due to evolving political dynamics

Moody's review will focus on assessing:

1) The country's medium-term fiscal trends, and the likely policy response to ongoing budgetary pressures

2) The effectiveness of the government's medium-term financing plan in managing liquidity risks

3) The government's overall credit profile relative to similar-rated peers

RATINGS RATIONALE

RATIONALE FOR INITIATING THE REVIEW FOR DOWNGRADE

HIGH PRIMARY DEFICITS AND BORROWING COSTS CONTINUE TO DRIVE GOVERNMENT DEBT HIGHER

Moody's expects that Kenya's government debt burden, which has risen to 56.4% of GDP in June 2017, up from 40.5% five years ago, will continue to rise due to persistently high primary deficits and borrowing costs. Pressures on the government primary balance, which posted a deficit of 5.3% of GDP in the latest fiscal year ending June 2017, come from elevated development spending and weak revenue performance. Unless a decisive policy response is introduced, the upward trajectory in government debt will see debt-to-GDP surpass the 60% mark by June 2018.

Due to the erosion in government revenue intake in the last five years and increased recourse to debt from private sources on commercial terms, government debt affordability has deteriorated. In the latest fiscal year, the government spent 19.0% of its revenues on interest payments, up from 10.7% five years ago.

A key focus of the review will be to assess the capacity and willingness of the government to address these budgetary challenges in a comprehensive, effective and timely manner.

INCREASINGLY LARGE FINANCING NEEDS RISK PRESSURING GOVERNMENT LIQUIDITY

Moody's believes that the Kenyan government's increasingly large financing needs risk putting pressure on its liquidity position. The expected step-up in principal payments in the next few years will drive financing needs further up from an already elevated level of 19% of GDP. A key area of focus in the rating agency's liquidity analysis is the government's increasingly large roll-over of Treasury Bills, which amounted to 9.4% of GDP in June 2017, and the external debt payments to private creditors, including the $750 million Eurobond due in June 2019.

At the same time, Moody's notes that several factors support the government's access to financing resources, which ultimately can mitigate government liquidity risk. The government benefits from a relatively deep and mature financial sector, which consists of banks, pension and insurance companies with a combined asset base of more than 80% of GDP. As such, the government has been able to issue debt instruments in local currency with particularly long maturities -- the average maturity of domestic outstanding bonds was seven years as of August 2017. Moreover, the government holds roughly 6% of GDP in deposits, thereby providing a buffer in the event of adverse market conditions.

The review will assess the extent to which funding risks are sufficiently contained by the mitigating features.

UNCERTAINTIES OVER FUTURE POLICY DIRECTION AND IMPLEMENTATION

Moody's views future policy orientations and implementation as particularly uncertain given the evolving political dynamics. The latest fiscal policy statement was released last March with the Parliament's approval of the Budget for the fiscal year 2017-2018. Since then, while the Kenyan Treasury has updated on several occasions its expectations for a more adverse fiscal outlook, policy formulation has remained broadly unchanged as the country focused on the national elections.

Shortly after Kenya's general elections on 8 August this year, the Supreme Court nullified the result of the presidential election, requiring a new vote within 60 days. Whether the new vote will allow the political process to return to normalcy is unclear and the absence of a decisive outcome could distract the government from fiscal and economic reforms that would address the current fiscal and socio-economic challenges.

The review will focus on assessing the country's political configuration and whether it offers more visibility over the government policy orientation and implementation capacity.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING -- DOWN

Moody's would downgrade the rating if the review were to conclude that Kenya's government debt and financing needs, and hence its fiscal strength and liquidity position, have eroded to levels no longer consistent with B1 rated peers. In particular, the rating agency would downgrade the rating in the absence of an effective policy response to these challenges.

WHAT COULD LEAD TO CONFIRMATION OF THE RATING AT THE CURRENT LEVEL

Moody's would confirm the rating at B1 if the review were to conclude that the policy response offers the prospect for tempering the currently-anticipated upward trend in government debt and that liquidity risks are being effectively managed.

GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 3,496 (2016 Actual) (also known as Per Capita Income)

Real GDP growth (% change): 5.8% (2016 Actual) (also known as GDP Growth)

Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 6.3% (2016 Actual)

Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: -8.9% (2016-17 Actual Fiscal Year) (also known as Fiscal Balance)

Current Account Balance/GDP: -5.2% (2016 Actual) (also known as External Balance)

External debt/GDP: 26.5% (2016 Actual)

Level of economic development: Low level of economic resilience

Default history: At least one default event (on bonds and/or loans) has been recorded since 1983.

On 28 September 2017, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating of the Government of Kenya. The main points raised during the discussion were: The issuer's fiscal or financial strength, including its debt profile, has materially decreased.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Sovereign Bond Ratings published in December 2016. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this credit rating action, if applicable.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Lucie Villa
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653
Yves Lemay
MD - Sovereign Risk
Sovereign Risk Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Omollo on October 04, 2017, 04:55:34 PM
Quote
Rating Action: Moody's places on review for downgrade the ratings of three Kenyan banks
Global Credit Research - 04 Oct 2017
Rating action follows the sovereign rating's review announcement
Limassol, October 04, 2017 -- Moody's Investors Service, ("Moody's") has today placed on review for downgrade the B1 global scale long-term local-currency deposit ratings and the b1 baseline credit assessment (BCA) of three Kenyan banks: KCB Bank Kenya Limited (KCB Bank), Equity Bank Kenya Limited (Equity Bank), and Co-operative Bank of Kenya Limited (Co-op Bank). A full list of the banks' ratings affected by today's rating action is at the end of this press release.

Today's rating action is driven primarily by a potential weakening of the Kenyan government's credit profile, in particular in the country's fiscal strength and liquidity risk, as captured by Moody's recent decision to place Kenya's B1 government ratings on review for downgrade. The banks' sizable holdings of sovereign debt securities inevitably link their creditworthiness to that of the national government. To a lesser extent, today's rating action also captures pressures on Kenya's macro profile, in light of the currently challenging operating conditions, which are in turn weighing on the banks' asset quality profiles. For further information, refer to the sovereign press release "Moody's places Kenya's B1 rating on review for downgrade" (https://www.moodys.com/research/--PR_373279).

RATINGS RATIONALE

-- WEAKENING CREDIT PROFILE FOR KENYA EXERTS PRESSURE ON BANKS' OWN CREDIT PROFILE

The rating action is primarily driven by the potential deterioration of the Kenyan government's credit profile, as captured by Moody's recent rating action to place the B1 sovereign rating on review for downgrade. Kenyan banks' high exposure to government debt links their credit profile to that of the government, leading to banks' standalone credit profiles and ratings being constrained by the rating of the government. The top three banks' sovereign bond exposures average around 1.4x of their tangible common equity, according to the banks' unaudited financial statements as of June 2017.

-- CHALLENGES IN THE OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

A secondary driver for the rating review are the current challenges in the operating environment, which place pressure on banks' asset quality metrics. Although Kenya has strong medium-term economic growth prospects, with growth rates above the sub-Saharan African level, some structural features and developments have weighed on the recent performance of the banking system. These challenges -- which include the introduction of a regulatory limit on lending rates and a slowdown in business activity and investor confidence, given the prolonged presidential elections -- will likely lead to tighter credit conditions for the country's borrowers' and continue to weigh on banks' asset quality metrics.

FACTORS TO BE CONSIDERED IN THE RATING REVIEW

The rating review for downgrade will predominantly focus on the evolution of the sovereign rating and how this impacts banks' credit profiles. Moreover, Moody's will also re-assess Kenya's macro profile score of "Weak-", in light of the currently challenging operating conditions, and the likely impact on banks' asset quality profile. However, the rating agency also notes the broad resilience demonstrated by Kenyan banks, supported by rated banks' strong capital and profitability buffers, and their deposit-based funding profiles.

As part of the review process, Moody's will consider each of the rated bank's recent financial performance, key rating drivers and potential vulnerabilities:

- KCB Bank Kenya Limited

As part of its review of KCB Bank, Moody's will assess the interlinkages of the bank's credit profile to that of the sovereign, given its high exposures to government securities at 1.3x its tangible common equity, as of June 2017. In addition, Moody's will assess the impact of a potentially deteriorating operating environment and macro profile on KCB's own credit profile. While KCB Bank's asset quality has been broadly stable during 2017, despite the challenging conditions, its problem loans remain above its rated domestic peers at 6.8% (excluding interest in suspense) of gross loans as of June 2017, which includes a few large construction sector borrowers affected by government arrears. In turn, the collateralised nature of these exposures leads to a weak provisioning coverage at 26% of problem loans. However, the rating agency notes the bank's regulatory provisioning reserves that form part of equity (in line with the Central Bank of Kenya regulation), which brings the total coverage up to 71%.

At the same time, Moody's acknowledges the bank's currently strong profitability and capital metrics. Although KCB Bank's lending margins have been impacted by the regulatory lending rate cap, its profitability remains strong with net income at 3.6% of tangible assets (during the first half of 2017). In addition, KCB Bank's overall solvency is supported by its high tangible common equity of 14.6% its total assets as of June 2017, which strengthens its ability to withstand unexpected losses.

- Equity Bank Kenya Limited

In terms of its review of Equity Bank, Moody's will assess the interlinkages of the bank's credit profile to that of the sovereign, given its high exposures to government securities at 1.9x its tangible common equity, as of June 2017. In addition, Moody's will assess the impact of a potentially deteriorating operating environment and macro profile on Equity Bank's own credit profile. Equity Group's asset quality metrics (a good proxy for Equity Bank's ratios) have weakened over the past 18 months, with problem loans (excluding interest in suspense) to gross loans weakening to 6.4% as of June 2017, from 2.7% as of end-2015. Moody's expects further asset quality strain in the small and medium sized enterprise (SME) segment in particular -- which accounts for over 50% of Equity Bank's loans -- given increasing stress from lower consumer disposable income and tighter credit conditions.

Despite Equity Bank's high SME exposure, Moody's notes that the bank is well placed to withstand the particular challenges it faces by reducing risk-taking, maintaining strong profitability metrics and solid capital buffers. Equity Bank's net income stood at 4.1% of tangible assets during the first half of 2017, with its tangible common equity at 13.8% of total assets.

- Co-operative Bank of Kenya Limited

In terms of its review of Co-op Bank, Moody's will also assess the interlinkages of the bank's credit profile to that of the sovereign, given its high exposures to government securities at 1.1x its tangible common equity, as of June 2017. In addition, Moody's will assess the impact of a potentially deteriorating operating environment and macro profile on the bank's own credit profile. Moody's expects elevated asset risks as the bank pursues a more aggressive loan growth strategy, despite the challenging operating environment, following a period of internal re-organisation and strategic transformation that has given the bank new tools and confidence to increase market share. Nonetheless, Co-op Bank's problem loans (excluding interest in suspense) of 4.5% of gross loans as of June 2017, remain better than larger rated domestic peers, reflecting its corporate focus including lending to Kenya's Savings and Credit Co-operative Organisations and salary-assigned personal lending.

Moody's finally notes that Co-op Bank maintains strong overall profitability with net income at 3.5% of tangible assets during the first six months of 2017, while its tangible common equity at 16.4% of total assets as of June 2017, supports its overall solvency and ability to withstand unexpected losses.

WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATINGS UP/DOWN

As indicated by the review for downgrade on the sovereign rating, any further deterioration in the creditworthiness of Kenya would exert downward pressure on the banks' ratings, in view of their large holdings of sovereign debt securities. In addition, the banks' ratings could be downgraded if Moody's forward looking assessment of the operating conditions worsens, which would in turn lead Moody's to expect a weakening in banks' financial performance.

Conversely, there is no upwards rating momentum in the banks' ratings, as their standalone credit profiles are already on a par with the sovereign rating. The ratings may be confirmed at their current level if operating conditions improve and the rating of the Kenyan government is also confirmed at B1.

LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS

Issuer: Co-operative Bank of Kenya Limited

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

....LT Bank Deposits (Local Currency), currently B1, Outlook Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

....LT Bank Deposits (Foreign Currency), currently B2, Outlook Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

....NSR LT Bank Deposits, currently Aa2.ke

....NSR ST Bank Deposits, currently KE-1

....Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, currently b1

....Baseline Credit Assessment, currently b1

....LT Counterparty Risk Assessment, currently Ba3(cr)

Affirmations:

....ST Bank Deposits, Affirmed NP

....ST Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed NP(cr)

Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: Equity Bank Kenya Limited

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

....LT Bank Deposits (Local Currency), currently B1, Outlook Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

....LT Bank Deposits (Foreign Currency), currently B2, Outlook Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

....NSR LT Bank Deposits, currently Aa1.ke

....NSR ST Bank Deposits, currently KE-1

....Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, currently b1

....Baseline Credit Assessment, currently b1

....LT Counterparty Risk Assessment, currently Ba3(cr)

Affirmations:

....ST Bank Deposits, Affirmed NP

....ST Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed NP(cr)

Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: KCB Bank Kenya Limited

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

....LT Issuer Rating, currently B1, Outlook Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

....LT Bank Deposit (Local Currency), currently B1, Outlook Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

....LT Bank Deposit (Foreign Currency), currently B2, Outlook Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

....Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, currently b1

....Baseline Credit Assessment, currently b1

....LT Counterparty Risk Assessment, currently Ba3(cr)

Affirmations:

....ST Issuer Rating, Affirmed NP

....ST Bank Deposits, Affirmed NP

....ST Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed NP(cr)

Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks published in September 2017. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Moody's National Scale Credit Ratings (NSRs) are intended as relative measures of creditworthiness among debt issues and issuers within a country, enabling market participants to better differentiate relative risks. NSRs differ from Moody's global scale credit ratings in that they are not globally comparable with the full universe of Moody's rated entities, but only with NSRs for other rated debt issues and issuers within the same country. NSRs are designated by a ".nn" country modifier signifying the relevant country, as in ".za" for South Africa. For further information on Moody's approach to national scale credit ratings, please refer to Moody's Credit rating Methodology published in May 2016 entitled "Mapping National Scale Ratings from Global Scale Ratings". While NSRs have no inherent absolute meaning in terms of default risk or expected loss, a historical probability of default consistent with a given NSR can be inferred from the GSR to which it maps back at that particular point in time. For information on the historical default rates associated with different global scale rating categories over different investment horizons, please see https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1060333.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Items color coded in purple in this Press Release relate to unsolicited ratings for a rated entity which is non-participating.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Christos Theofilou, CFA
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Cyprus Ltd.
Porto Bello Building
1, Siafi Street, 3042 Limassol
PO Box 53205
Limassol CY 3301
Cyprus
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
Sean Marion
MD - Financial Institutions
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Cyprus Ltd.
Porto Bello Building
1, Siafi Street, 3042 Limassol
PO Box 53205
Limassol CY 3301
Cyprus
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on October 04, 2017, 06:22:15 PM
Capitalism is built on consumerism and more consumerism. Celebrating austerity is similar to celebrating choking claiming that one is developing stronger throat muscles. Government recurrent expenditure is what goes around in teas, flowers, fuel, per diems...all that. Currently when you talk of development budget it is likely that 60% of the monies is shipping out in materials, interest making the short term even dire.

Meanwhile
Quote
Many businesses want elections over before investing further, mindful of the weeks of post-election violence that followed the disputed 2007 presidential poll, killing around 1,200 people and plunging the economy into a nose-dive.

"People stopped investing in real estate or businesses waiting to see the outcome of the election ... There are delays in payments from end to end," said a bank CEO, who did not wish to be named.

SMALL BUSINESSES HIT

Those delays are choking John Wambua's small business transporting plastic water tanks to retailers. His clients haven't paid for three months so he has been unable to service the loan on his truck.

"We have had a big challenge due to the election. The people we transport the water tanks for are not selling and so we have no work," he said wearily at the auction yard, where he had gone to beg for more time before his truck is auctioned.

Quote
Non-performing loans in the banking industry rose to 10.7 per cent in August, from 9.9 per cent in June, the central bank said, jumping into double digits for the first time since 2007.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/10/03/kenyan-debtors-struggle-to-hold-on-to-assets-as-repossessions-rise_c1646461
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on October 31, 2017, 03:59:46 PM

Quote
“The engines of the private sector are closing off,” said Equity Group CEO James Mwangi said about the slowing credit growth in Kenya. “The wind has been taken out of the sail by these temporary headwinds.”

Equity’s investment in government securities jumped 37 per cent from Sh93.1 billion to Sh127.7 billion.

Mr Mwangi attributed the increased investment in fixed income to higher returns than on new loans.

“This is not lazy banking because the return on government securities is higher,” he said.

We are not able to lend to the micro borrowers whose default rate is as high as 80 per cent.”
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corporate/companies/Equity-posts-3pc-drop-in-net-profit/4003102-4162634-14d401cz/index.html

Is he just exaggerating or what? 80% default rate?? In a chang'aa den a 1% default rate usually ends up in stabbing to death.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Nefertiti on November 01, 2017, 12:57:46 AM
Exactly - policy experimentation like M-pesa is the corner stone of innovation. No need to change such impactful policy just because someone is making 3% less profit. Way forward is for evidence based policy making - we need kippra, universities, gov economists and such bodies doing empirical studies that should inform policy changes. Parliament also need to employ economist and social scientist - who can advice them on policy making - because ultimately parliament are going to make these kind of decisions.

Look at the oil industry - an oligochary that was quick to hike prices and slow to reduce prices claiming global market bla de bla - they warned of doom and gloom if they were regulated - but ERC has done a fair job and everyone is happy - and good thing there is PREDICTABILITY - we have one month or two months before price review. The same situation with banks - nobody now wakes up and find their interest shot up overnight - we know CBK will meet once a month and decide on base lending rate .

No need to change this law - we just need to allow investment bank, micro-finance, shylocks and angel investor who want to lend at usurious rate do so - but outside the banking sector.

80% default rate... Come on. I don't trust the bankers fully right now. They are on a campaign to undo the interest cap. They have optimized a few things - especially on digital banking - but are yet to properly burn the excess fat. I think "agents" are actually excess fat in places with 3G internet like Nairobi. They need to embrace innovation squarely - and create new products and revenues - like they did with thin sim to create Equitel. In any case 3% profit dip is hardly reason to reverse such an impactful policy.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on June 04, 2020, 05:59:56 AM
Then came Covid19 mismanagement. The social restrictions that were unnecessary should have gone once we had evidence that we were overreacting and fear mongering.

The continuing mismanagement of the virus will devastate an economy that was already on a cliff. Next 3 months are definitive as the consequences manifest among individuals, businesses, households, families, government salaries, counties and all what can hit the fan.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: GeeMail on June 04, 2020, 11:05:57 PM
Go
Then came Covid19 mismanagement. The social restrictions that were unnecessary should have gone once we had evidence that we were overreacting and fear mongering.

The continuing mismanagement of the virus will devastate an economy that was already on a cliff. Next 3 months are definitive as the consequences manifest among individuals, businesses, households, families, government salaries, counties and all what can hit the fan.
But Gout who is listening? Everyone knows this Covid19 thing is a circus (like IEBC) but people need comic relief. Nobody will be laughing when they realize they were being distracted from real politics.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on June 05, 2020, 09:45:02 AM
The ability of majority of Mwafrika to suffer is inelastic; we know no dignified living. Those taken down by the poor leadership and mismanagement of the virus will wear tatters and believe they are cursed while the elites continue gourging themselves with covid loans as they cemtralize power. Those unable to afford life in the urban slums will go back to apathy in the villages.

Go
Then came Covid19 mismanagement. The social restrictions that were unnecessary should have gone once we had evidence that we were overreacting and fear mongering.

The continuing mismanagement of the virus will devastate an economy that was already on a cliff. Next 3 months are definitive as the consequences manifest among individuals, businesses, households, families, government salaries, counties and all what can hit the fan.
But Gout who is listening? Everyone knows this Covid19 thing is a circus (like IEBC) but people need comic relief. Nobody will be laughing when they realize they were being distracted from real politics.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: hk on June 08, 2020, 07:43:41 AM
Then came Covid19 mismanagement. The social restrictions that were unnecessary should have gone once we had evidence that we were overreacting and fear mongering.

The continuing mismanagement of the virus will devastate an economy that was already on a cliff. Next 3 months are definitive as the consequences manifest among individuals, businesses, households, families, government salaries, counties and all what can hit the fan.
In addition to the dire economic condition, the treasury is raising taxes on basic goods, cheap beer, cooking gas etc. This will further cripple the economy and will lead to low tax collection. The only solution is to slash the budget by a whopping 50%, restructure debt , deregulate and cut excise taxes. The Key to economic development in Kenya is local production and consumption. 
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on June 08, 2020, 08:57:05 AM
But is 50% won't be enough to pay salaries and debt. Maybe if we restructure debt - from paying 7B dollars - we could I don't know roll over some of it.

I see they have increase keg beer when it's know to be very sensitive to price increases? 

In addition to the dire economic condition, the treasury is raising taxes on basic goods, cheap beer, cooking gas etc. This will further cripple the economy and will lead to low tax collection. The only solution is to slash the budget by a whopping 50%, restructure debt , deregulate and cut excise taxes. The Key to economic development in Kenya is local production and consumption. 
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: hk on June 08, 2020, 09:18:11 AM
But is 50% won't be enough to pay salaries and debt. Maybe if we restructure debt - from paying 7B dollars - we could I don't know roll over some of it.

I see they have increase keg beer when it's know to be very sensitive to price increases? 

In addition to the dire economic condition, the treasury is raising taxes on basic goods, cheap beer, cooking gas etc. This will further cripple the economy and will lead to low tax collection. The only solution is to slash the budget by a whopping 50%, restructure debt , deregulate and cut excise taxes. The Key to economic development in Kenya is local production and consumption. 
The salaries have to be cut especially for non essential services.  For example Agriculture is allocated 59b but most of it goes to salaries and parastals, this need to be reduced dramatically. This applies across all ministries. Multilateral debt can be restructured but Eurobonds covenants might be violated, Kenya is in a dire situation and hard choices have to be made. Non performing loans are piling up https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Value-of-bad-loans-hits-Sh366bn/539546-5572570-o5w86h/index.html , if you add 366b to 271b already restructured( creditors given some reprieve) it means about 600b is non performing. Meaning most of the banks can't even meet their CBK liquidity ratios.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on June 08, 2020, 09:31:47 AM
That is a politically hot potato. I think for now asking bilateral and multilateral donors for debt rescheduling may work - plus cutting down on development budget.

Uhuru legacy is gong to tatters.

The salaries have to be cut especially for non essential services.  For example Agriculture is allocated 59b but most of it goes to salaries and parastals, this need to be reduced dramatically. This applies across all ministries. Multilateral debt can be restructured but Eurobonds covenants might be violated, Kenya is in a dire situation and hard choices have to be made.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on June 08, 2020, 11:08:39 AM
Mad Njoroge at CBK by declaring that banks can be fined for not giving out loans set up the collapse of ponzi. Banks just set loan limits at ZERO.

It is even crazier when you pay the mobile loans, they refuse to give new loans yet most people were surviving on merry go round of these mobile lenders. They will be more chaos.

Firing people amidst a crisis is quite unpopular but counties and ministries should seize the moment. Uhuru attempts to be loved will be tested each passing second.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: hk on June 08, 2020, 07:46:11 PM
Mad Njoroge at CBK by declaring that banks can be fined for not giving out loans set up the collapse of ponzi. Banks just set loan limits at ZERO.

It is even crazier when you pay the mobile loans, they refuse to give new loans yet most people were surviving on merry go round of these mobile lenders. They will be more chaos.

Firing people amidst a crisis is quite unpopular but counties and ministries should seize the moment. Uhuru attempts to be loved will be tested each passing second.
Tala and the other non bank mobile merchants are the ones not issuing new loans. The reason being CBK declared that they can't list defaulters to credit bureaus. The banks e,g kcb,equity, coop and Ncba are still issuing mobile loans.The banks have to keep providing mobile loans its the only thing that's working.  Look at non performing loans https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Value-of-bad-loans-hits-Sh366bn/539546-5572570-o5w86h/index.html whopping 366b plus restructured loans of 270b , basically we have zombie banks.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on March 30, 2022, 07:57:57 PM
Fuel crisis. Broke Treasury reallocating billions to KMC, DoD, NIS.

I bet since BBI serious looting has been going as long as you shout Asimio. Must be the most expensive political experiment.

It should be buried tomorrow - tragic the costs won't be surcharged to its architects - it has buried the economy.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on March 30, 2022, 08:59:18 PM
Construction materials prices unmanageable. Not sure how scrap metal dealing ban has contributed to this.
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/markets/market-news/price-of-construction-materials-rise-sharply-3764634

Iron ore mining was doing well precolonial times. Why import while so much iron ore all over?   
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on March 31, 2022, 06:55:42 PM
The big boys are defaulting.

Quote
"It relates to about Sh40 billion in terms of the loans that led to that increase in that ratio and relates to something like 16 accounts. The point to make is that this is not systemic across the various sectors," said CBK governor Patrick Njoroge during a post-Monetary Policy Committee briefing Wednesday.

"A few of those loans were in the manufacturing sector, which has continued to perform very well, but for specific institutions that had issues … those loans have now been classified as NPLs," he said.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/16-accounts-hit-banks-with-sh40bn-defaults-3766006
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Njuri Ncheke on March 31, 2022, 07:15:18 PM
This thread is another prophetic analysis in current economics and drought,its great to see nipate has geniuses,well done Gout, it's spot on years later.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: sema on March 31, 2022, 07:49:39 PM
The shilling is now at 114. What next?
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Georgesoros on April 01, 2022, 12:15:07 AM
This thread is another prophetic analysis in current economics and drought,its great to see nipate has geniuses,well done Gout, it's spot on years later.

Prophets of doom.  :)
As Europe and USA readjusts we are soon going to see severe recession. Be ready to buy cheap assets.


Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: hk on April 01, 2022, 08:51:01 AM
The big boys are defaulting.

Quote
"It relates to about Sh40 billion in terms of the loans that led to that increase in that ratio and relates to something like 16 accounts. The point to make is that this is not systemic across the various sectors," said CBK governor Patrick Njoroge during a post-Monetary Policy Committee briefing Wednesday.

"A few of those loans were in the manufacturing sector, which has continued to perform very well, but for specific institutions that had issues … those loans have now been classified as NPLs," he said.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/16-accounts-hit-banks-with-sh40bn-defaults-3766006
rumor mills has it that devki and simba cement is among the defaulters. Maybe thats the reason they sold their geothermal company. Inflation is crushing the economy and there's no reprieve in sight.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on April 01, 2022, 08:54:18 AM
This is serious...
rumor mills has it that devki and simba cement is among the defaulters. Maybe thats the reason they sold their geothermal company. Inflation is crushing the economy and there's no reprieve in sight.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on April 01, 2022, 09:51:40 AM
AAR's Peter Nduati hit by the avalanche or bailed out another ponzi scheme.

Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on April 01, 2022, 10:02:04 AM
Not AAR but resolution health
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on April 01, 2022, 10:03:11 AM
It is a depressing job being a prophet of doom in a ship you are in. No matter how hard you shout the drunk sailors just enjoying themselves being urged on by equally drunk or just suicidal crew.

Several scenarios:
At times you are near a lifeboat or have your safe jacket in time. Still, these can take you just a safety distance either to the nearby shore and a rescue ship passing by. More probable is hypothermia, sharks and all vagaries of a turbulent sea. Recovery is dim 8) 8)

Or else the drunk sailor dies naturally or is killed and the ship is steadied. Worse still, it can still be rockier :-\ :-\ :-\. 

It is comforting to the very least you ain't taken by surprise by any of the doom scenarios. You have played them in your head and developed shock absorbers.

This thread is another prophetic analysis in current economics and drought,its great to see nipate has geniuses,well done Gout, it's spot on years later.

Prophets of doom.  :)
As Europe and USA readjusts we are soon going to see severe recession. Be ready to buy cheap assets.



Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on April 01, 2022, 10:07:54 AM
My bad. It will be interesting to see how medical insurers are faring after they refused to pay for Covid expenses and reported profits in 2021.

Not AAR but resolution health
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Georgesoros on April 01, 2022, 03:12:23 PM
The big boys are defaulting.

Quote
"It relates to about Sh40 billion in terms of the loans that led to that increase in that ratio and relates to something like 16 accounts. The point to make is that this is not systemic across the various sectors," said CBK governor Patrick Njoroge during a post-Monetary Policy Committee briefing Wednesday.

"A few of those loans were in the manufacturing sector, which has continued to perform very well, but for specific institutions that had issues … those loans have now been classified as NPLs," he said.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/16-accounts-hit-banks-with-sh40bn-defaults-3766006
rumor mills has it that devki and simba cement is among the defaulters. Maybe thats the reason they sold their geothermal company. Inflation is crushing the economy and there's no reprieve in sight.

The biggest problem coming is UNEMPLOYMENT.
Uhuru needed to address this yesterday, not tomorrow.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: sema on April 01, 2022, 09:28:34 PM
Quote
The biggest problem coming is UNEMPLOYMENT.
Uhuru needed to address this yesterday, not tomorrow.

How will anyone address this issue? People think jobs are dropped down from heaven or that the government can just snap it's fingers and create jobs.  Jobs come from production.  You have to produce things that people want or need and you have to export them (this is what gives countries their competitive advantage) -- What is Kenya's competitive advantage right now? or any African country for that matter? They are importing cars, heavy machinery, tools, everything and in exchange for this they can coffee beans and flowers are going to pay for all these imports?

They're going to have to figure out what their competitive advantage is otherwise, who will they ever compete globally?

Wasn't Nduati fired from his old job for corruption? looks like he just run this to the ground and took people's money with it.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Georgesoros on April 01, 2022, 09:35:34 PM
Quote
The biggest problem coming is UNEMPLOYMENT.
Uhuru needed to address this yesterday, not tomorrow.

How will anyone address this issue? People think jobs are dropped down from heaven or that the government can just snap it's fingers and create jobs.  Jobs come from production.  You have to produce things that people want or need and you have to export them (this is what gives countries their competitive advantage) -- What is Kenya's competitive advantage right now? or any African country for that matter? They are importing cars, heavy machinery, tools, everything and in exchange for this they can coffee beans and flowers are going to pay for all these imports?

They're going to have to figure out what their competitive advantage is otherwise, who will they ever compete globally?

Wasn't Nduati fired from his old job for corruption? looks like he just run this to the ground and took people's money with it.

BEST thing going now is industries are sick of China and its policies and they are moving OUT. Right policies will attract these businesses instead of going to India.
1. Kenya has political stability vs India's Hindu nationalism.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: sema on April 01, 2022, 10:22:23 PM
Quote
BEST thing going now is industries are sick of China and its policies and they are moving OUT. Right policies will attract these businesses instead of going to India.
1. Kenya has political stability vs India's Hindu nationalism.

Huh? You don't just de-couple from China (that process will take decades and the biggest beneficiary will be Vietnam) Not some far off African country, but do not assume that companies can just shut down factories and production lines with the snap of their fingers and set up other factories elsewhere again with the snap of their fingers.  :32:
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on April 02, 2022, 02:55:37 PM
The DCI page is proof ufool has killed any hope. The couple killings are everywhere 25-60 men have gone bonkers due to the economic hopelessness.

https://www.facebook.com/UpeleleziKenya/posts/339092204920358

https://www.facebook.com/UpeleleziKenya
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on April 02, 2022, 03:21:31 PM
Bottom up has it easy peasy. Pundit and I have been breaking it down but you people are looking for Chinese big factories, sijui kazi ya ofisi ya serikali nonsense.

Most do not require a shilling - just presidential directives and follow up calls.

First is the decriminalization of hustles/enterprise - matatus, bodas, hawking, micro manufacturing - just a call to IG to stop traffic police; Governor to rein on kanjo and allow vertical model hawking structures structures; KEBS/KRA dogs of war to be reined.

Ufool using KRA has killed businesses all over -big, medium and small; thousands of direct jobs and hundred thousands more lost over unfathomable madness. This is part of breaking dynasty hold on economy/crony capitalism- policy here and there.

Secondly mandatory vocational training - Short courses for out of school young and old on enterprise - KIRDI should be devolved asap/ Polytechnics

Open up local large buyers markets- hospitals, schools - instead of kids scrambling for mandazi we can have milk ATMs in all schools where they buy milk in Kshs. 10, 20,
Others given bodas courier services, incorporate into a revamped postal corporation.

On investments- For now Ndii is talking about 100 billion only for an year. This is what is being sucked into dead KQ year in year out.

Agriculture - merry go round fertilizer using KTDA/coffee societies model; - farmers use paltry 6 billion fertilizer; agro-processing - a litre of yoghurt is currently at Ksh. 200 as milk retails at 30-35 farm gate.

Gazette 50,000 acres of useless Nairobi National Park and even karura for serious affordable housing - a million houses- this gives 2-3 million watu wa mjengo 2-5 years of saving to invest in their hustles.  Same across every count and subcounty headquarters. Let Chinese came in not this expressways. Cheap housing with proper infrastructure solves so many social economic problems. Allows urban poor to save and have dignified living. 

The opportunities are boundless - just name any sector - th
 

Quote
The biggest problem coming is UNEMPLOYMENT.
Uhuru needed to address this yesterday, not tomorrow.

How will anyone address this issue? People think jobs are dropped down from heaven or that the government can just snap it's fingers and create jobs.  Jobs come from production.  You have to produce things that people want or need and you have to export them (this is what gives countries their competitive advantage) -- What is Kenya's competitive advantage right now? or any African country for that matter? They are importing cars, heavy machinery, tools, everything and in exchange for this they can coffee beans and flowers are going to pay for all these imports?

They're going to have to figure out what their competitive advantage is otherwise, who will they ever compete globally?

Wasn't Nduati fired from his old job for corruption? looks like he just run this to the ground and took people's money with it.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on April 02, 2022, 03:29:41 PM
I wish I could frame this - this exactly what is required in kenya - like Ruto said - it's pure common sense - it doesnt require a lot of complex thinking - pure old common sense
Bottom up has it easy peasy. Pundit and I have been breaking it down but you people are looking for Chinese big factories, sijui kazi ya ofisi ya serikali nonsense.

Most do not require a shilling - just presidential directives and follow up calls.

First is the decriminalization of hustles/enterprise - matatus, bodas, hawking, micro manufacturing - just a call to IG to stop traffic police; Governor to rein on kanjo and allow vertical model hawking structures structures; KEBS/KRA dogs of war to be reined.

Ufool using KRA has killed businesses all over -big, medium and small; thousands of direct jobs and hundred thousands more lost over unfathomable madness. This is part of breaking dynasty hold on economy/crony capitalism- policy here and there.

Secondly mandatory vocational training - Short courses for out of school young and old on enterprise - KIRDI should be devolved asap/ Polytechnics

Open up local large buyers markets- hospitals, schools - instead of kids scrambling for mandazi we can have milk ATMs in all schools where they buy milk in Kshs. 10, 20,
Others given bodas courier services, incorporate into a revamped postal corporation.

On investments- For now Ndii is talking about 100 billion only for an year. This is what is being sucked into dead KQ year in year out.

Agriculture - merry go round fertilizer using KTDA/coffee societies model; - farmers use paltry 6 billion fertilizer; agro-processing - a litre of yoghurt is currently at Ksh. 200 as milk retails at 30-35 farm gate.

Gazette 50,000 acres of useless Nairobi National Park and even karura for serious affordable housing - a million houses- this gives 2-3 million watu wa mjengo 2-5 years of saving to invest in their hustles.  Same across every count and subcounty headquarters. Let Chinese came in not this expressways. Cheap housing with proper infrastructure solves so many social economic problems. Allows urban poor to save and have dignified living. 

The opportunities are boundless - just name any sector - th
 

Quote
The biggest problem coming is UNEMPLOYMENT.
Uhuru needed to address this yesterday, not tomorrow.

How will anyone address this issue? People think jobs are dropped down from heaven or that the government can just snap it's fingers and create jobs.  Jobs come from production.  You have to produce things that people want or need and you have to export them (this is what gives countries their competitive advantage) -- What is Kenya's competitive advantage right now? or any African country for that matter? They are importing cars, heavy machinery, tools, everything and in exchange for this they can coffee beans and flowers are going to pay for all these imports?

They're going to have to figure out what their competitive advantage is otherwise, who will they ever compete globally?

Wasn't Nduati fired from his old job for corruption? looks like he just run this to the ground and took people's money with it.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on April 02, 2022, 03:37:14 PM
Gout - what do you think about serious EPZ type manufacturing in Lamu (Now we have idle free port) - and Mombasa Dongo Kundu.

The way I see - real export oriented manufacturing to provide jobs and forex can only happen near large port.

If I was PORK -
1) I would hive off say 50,000 acres of LAMU - create special economic zone - which is outside the realm of KRA/Union/Kenya police - this will be almost diplomatic blue zones - duty free - zero rate - same thing China did with Shenzen - Dubai did. Fence it off - divide it into 5-10 acres plot - build roads & sewage & water - and give the land for free to certified manufactures.
2) I would make Lamu port - free port - and privatize it.
3) Allow solar companies to go to Lamu and set up power plants - the coal plant is dead.

Once you give big manufacturers - free land, cheap solar power, free port, special economic zones with almost diplmatic status, plus you throw in our world class beaches and resorts for a weekend on fun - they will come rushing.

All we would require is for them to employ millions of kenyans...zero taxes - just employ millions of jobless youths - and also do not allow them to sell their cheap goods to kenya - let it be EPZ connected to LAMU free port - exclusive zone just to generate jobs and forex.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: KenyanPlato on April 02, 2022, 04:08:29 PM
Quote
BEST thing going now is industries are sick of China and its policies and they are moving OUT. Right policies will attract these businesses instead of going to India.
1. Kenya has political stability vs India's Hindu nationalism.

Huh? You don't just de-couple from China (that process will take decades and the biggest beneficiary will be Vietnam) Not some far off African country, but do not assume that companies can just shut down factories and production lines with the snap of their fingers and set up other factories elsewhere again with the snap of their fingers.  :32:

Man you got your geopolitics right. Vietnam is taking Chinese jobs and India will eventually get some. African  needs to find a way to increase intraafrica trading. Lay the network now for future. Otherwise we will continue being the bottom of the barrel
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on April 02, 2022, 04:18:39 PM
The easiest markets to capture are DRC, Burundi and South Sudan. We can to lock these markets for 10 -15 years with milk, meat, leather and garments. Industrial Area is also doing well with plastics. This makes Naivasha most ideal. I don't know about availability of land in Lake Victoria Basin. If available, this would solve the exclusion issue among the Luos. 

Turkana can also act as our entry into Sudan and the now fragile Ethiopia.

Logistic wise, Lamu makes no sense- except make it serious meat auction sort of for the Gulf. Lamu security concerns means a serious investment makes so many people sitting ducks as long as Somali/Indian Ocean is lawless. 
 
Gout - what do you think about serious EPZ type manufacturing in Lamu (Now we have idle free port) - and Mombasa Dongo Kundu.

The way I see - real export oriented manufacturing to provide jobs and forex can only happen near large port.

If I was PORK -
1) I would hive off say 50,000 acres of LAMU - create special economic zone - which is outside the realm of KRA/Union/Kenya police - this will be almost diplomatic blue zones - duty free - zero rate - same thing China did with Shenzen - Dubai did. Fence it off - divide it into 5-10 acres plot - build roads & sewage & water - and give the land for free to certified manufactures.
2) I would make Lamu port - free port - and privatize it.
3) Allow solar companies to go to Lamu and set up power plants - the coal plant is dead.

Once you give big manufacturers - free land, cheap solar power, free port, special economic zones with almost diplmatic status, plus you throw in our world class beaches and resorts for a weekend on fun - they will come rushing.

All we would require is for them to employ millions of kenyans...zero taxes - just employ millions of jobless youths - and also do not allow them to sell their cheap goods to kenya - let it be EPZ connected to LAMU free port - exclusive zone just to generate jobs and forex.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on April 02, 2022, 04:31:14 PM
I think the problem here is about 10-15 million jobless youths. That is immediate problem. What we need is think global. We need to create a "country" in Lamu - that can compete with China or Veitnam or Dubai - for export oriented manufacturing - we have huge opportunity in AGOA - that allows duty free access to American Market - for almost 1,000 types of good. No africa country has taken advantage of it with any seriousness.

For me I see LAMU as ideal because it's remote - it low population - it has huge land - it has deep sea port - it can easily get power generate through solar - river tana is not far off - it's near the coast (you cannot do serious manufacturing inland - impossible) - and with AGOA - we can pull Chinese manufacturers - who will supply US market.

Kenya benefit will be forex+jobs - we can have at least 2-3 million of people flocking LAMU. The terror can be stopped easily once we put in serious investment - we can flood the police and army in Boni forest.

If we concentrated on Lamu and Dongo Kundu free port - we can easily create mega cities in our coastal region - that will employ millions of jobless youths.

The easiest markets to capture are DRC, Burundi and South Sudan. We can to lock these markets for 10 -15 years with milk, meat, leather and garments. Industrial Area is also doing well with plastics. This makes Naivasha most ideal. I don't know about availability of land in Lake Victoria Basin. If available, this would solve the exclusion issue among the Luos. 

Turkana can also act as our entry into Sudan and the now fragile Ethiopia.

Logistic wise, Lamu makes no sense- except make it serious meat auction sort of for the Gulf. Lamu security concerns means a serious investment makes so many people sitting ducks as long as Somali/Indian Ocean is lawless. 
 
Gout - what do you think about serious EPZ type manufacturing in Lamu (Now we have idle free port) - and Mombasa Dongo Kundu.

The way I see - real export oriented manufacturing to provide jobs and forex can only happen near large port.

If I was PORK -
1) I would hive off say 50,000 acres of LAMU - create special economic zone - which is outside the realm of KRA/Union/Kenya police - this will be almost diplomatic blue zones - duty free - zero rate - same thing China did with Shenzen - Dubai did. Fence it off - divide it into 5-10 acres plot - build roads & sewage & water - and give the land for free to certified manufactures.
2) I would make Lamu port - free port - and privatize it.
3) Allow solar companies to go to Lamu and set up power plants - the coal plant is dead.

Once you give big manufacturers - free land, cheap solar power, free port, special economic zones with almost diplmatic status, plus you throw in our world class beaches and resorts for a weekend on fun - they will come rushing.

All we would require is for them to employ millions of kenyans...zero taxes - just employ millions of jobless youths - and also do not allow them to sell their cheap goods to kenya - let it be EPZ connected to LAMU free port - exclusive zone just to generate jobs and forex.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: KenyanPlato on April 02, 2022, 04:43:18 PM
I think the problem here is about 10-15 million jobless youths. That is immediate problem. What we need is think global. We need to create a "country" in Lamu - that can compete with China or Veitnam or Dubai - for export oriented manufacturing - we have huge opportunity in AGOA - that allows duty free access to American Market - for almost 1,000 types of good. No africa country has taken advantage of it with any seriousness.

For me I see LAMU as ideal because it's remote - it low population - it has huge land - it has deep sea port - it can easily get power generate through solar - river tana is not far off - it's near the coast (you cannot do serious manufacturing inland - impossible) - and with AGOA - we can pull Chinese manufacturers - who will supply US market.

Kenya benefit will be forex+jobs - we can have at least 2-3 million of people flocking LAMU. The terror can be stopped easily once we put in serious investment - we can flood the police and army in Boni forest.

If we concentrated on Lamu and Dongo Kundu free port - we can easily create mega cities in our coastal region - that will employ millions of jobless youths.

The easiest markets to capture are DRC, Burundi and South Sudan. We can to lock these markets for 10 -15 years with milk, meat, leather and garments. Industrial Area is also doing well with plastics. This makes Naivasha most ideal. I don't know about availability of land in Lake Victoria Basin. If available, this would solve the exclusion issue among the Luos. 

Turkana can also act as our entry into Sudan and the now fragile Ethiopia.

Logistic wise, Lamu makes no sense- except make it serious meat auction sort of for the Gulf. Lamu security concerns means a serious investment makes so many people sitting ducks as long as Somali/Indian Ocean is lawless. 
 
Gout - what do you think about serious EPZ type manufacturing in Lamu (Now we have idle free port) - and Mombasa Dongo Kundu.

The way I see - real export oriented manufacturing to provide jobs and forex can only happen near large port.

If I was PORK -
1) I would hive off say 50,000 acres of LAMU - create special economic zone - which is outside the realm of KRA/Union/Kenya police - this will be almost diplomatic blue zones - duty free - zero rate - same thing China did with Shenzen - Dubai did. Fence it off - divide it into 5-10 acres plot - build roads & sewage & water - and give the land for free to certified manufactures.
2) I would make Lamu port - free port - and privatize it.
3) Allow solar companies to go to Lamu and set up power plants - the coal plant is dead.

Once you give big manufacturers - free land, cheap solar power, free port, special economic zones with almost diplmatic status, plus you throw in our world class beaches and resorts for a weekend on fun - they will come rushing.

All we would require is for them to employ millions of kenyans...zero taxes - just employ millions of jobless youths - and also do not allow them to sell their cheap goods to kenya - let it be EPZ connected to LAMU free port - exclusive zone just to generate jobs and forex.

Kenyans are not unemployed. They have an income problem. You can't solve income problem with sweat shops. Due to land rights and literary levels kenyans won't take sweat shop jobs. So gout model is the only one that can work
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on April 02, 2022, 04:54:01 PM
My friend people employ house girls for 3,000-5000kshs. They are million of desperate jobless youths who will take sweat jobs that pays 100usd per month.

I think the estimate is 15 million jobless folks in Juakali sector. We need to get at least half of them moving from agri to manufacturing. there is no other way. Agri should remain for old and uneducated.

Organic manufacturing is great....but we have huge problem that require a huge solution - quickly. So of 15 million - get 2-4 million into housing and infrastructure (construction), get 2-4 million into export oriented manufacturing, then get rest into SME sector (agri, manufacturing, transport (boda boda), financial, hotels).

We already have foothold in US apparel sector - we just need to grab more piece of the piece -  get chinese manufacturers moving to vietnam - consider moving to Lamu and Mombasa. This trick that has seen Veitnam export rise from nothing to more than it's GDP - bicyles alone bring in 12 billion dollars. Kenyans can surely assemble bicyles.

Kenyans are not unemployed. They have an income problem. You can't solve income problem with sweat shops. Due to land rights and literary levels kenyans won't take sweat shop jobs. So gout model is the only one that can work
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on April 02, 2022, 04:59:29 PM
Yeah, Kenyans are a hard lot to understand through most of the economic models.
It is said that Kenyans are choosy even when unemployed. Many will reject a job and leave you bewildered, then you find them after an year and they are just doing somewhat 'fine'.

The issue is having a fall back position in land and shags home where you won't lack a house and food. Our peasantry land ownership makes nonsense of the grand scale wage based economic disruption. The hustle culture has also made Kenyan youths cocky sure that siwezi kosa kitu ya kufanya.


You cannot uproot the Kalenjin youths to Lamu even for jobs. They only want to join jeshi, police or funny NYS to march with spades  :D :D :D

The lot am finding ambitious is the single mothers and young women going to the gulf for house jobs.

Once we sort productivity bottlenecks in the hustles, incomes will rise. More investment into innovations, scaling up/expansion, more stock, improvements.

A hawker uses half day running from kanjo; only sells for an hour or two; 2-5 days earnings to bribe kanjo.  There was a story of a woman forced to close a pub in Kitengela. A simple pub employs 2-3 permanent wait; 2 more temps; a mutura/soup guy outside and still gives good money to the owner. One OCS and fellow buggers takes all the margins to go splash on malaya or build desolate house at home to be occupied once an year.

Kenyans are not unemployed. They have an income problem. You can't solve income problem with sweat shops. Due to land rights and literary levels kenyans won't take sweat shop jobs. So gout model is the only one that can work
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on April 02, 2022, 05:04:04 PM
The land trust me is gone. Even amongst Kalenjin. The land price in my shags are now as competitive as 40kms from Nairobi - land now sold in points - now 200K per point or plot - 30kms from Kericho town. My wife recently bought at 280K - in Malaa kamulu - that is 40kms from Nairobi...nearly same prize with my shags.

Most people in my place now own 1/4 or less than acre of land. Those luckly actually inherit 2-3 acres of land. Majority now inherit an acre or less of land. Their parents on average owned 10-20 acres - but gave birth to 10 kids.

Remember the arable land in kenya is just 11 percent - and most of it has been subdivided into tiny unproductive portions. Therefore you have kalenjin men flocking to be watchmen in Nairobi and many women now flocking into house girls.

Flower farms, sweat jobs and mass employers is only hope.

Yeah, Kenyans are a hard lot to understand through most of the economic models.
It is said that Kenyans are choosy even when unemployed. Many will reject a job and leave you bewildered, then you find them after an year and they are just doing somewhat 'fine'.

The issue is having a fall back position in land and shags home where you won't lack a house and food. Our peasantry land ownership makes nonsense of the grand scale wage based economic disruption. The hustle culture has also made Kenyan youths cocky sure that siwezi kosa kitu ya kufanya.


You cannot uproot the Kalenjin youths to Lamu even for jobs. They only want to join jeshi, police or funny NYS to march with spades  :D :D :D

The lot am finding ambitious is the single mothers and young women going to the gulf for house jobs.

Once we sort productivity bottlenecks in the hustles, incomes will rise. More investment into innovations, scaling up/expansion, more stock, improvements.

A hawker uses half day running from kanjo; only sells for an hour or two; 2-5 days earnings to bribe kanjo.  There was a story of a woman forced to close a pub in Kitengela. A simple pub employs 2-3 permanent wait; 2 more temps; a mutura/soup guy outside and still gives good money to the owner. One OCS and fellow buggers takes all the margins to go splash on malaya or build desolate house at home to be occupied once an year.

Kenyans are not unemployed. They have an income problem. You can't solve income problem with sweat shops. Due to land rights and literary levels kenyans won't take sweat shop jobs. So gout model is the only one that can work
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: KenyanPlato on April 02, 2022, 05:43:16 PM
The land trust me is gone. Even amongst Kalenjin. The land price in my shags are now as competitive as 40kms from Nairobi - land now sold in points - now 200K per point or plot - 30kms from Kericho town. My wife recently bought at 280K - in Malaa kamulu - that is 40kms from Nairobi...nearly same prize with my shags.

Most people in my place now own 1/4 or less than acre of land. Those luckly actually inherit 2-3 acres of land. Majority now inherit an acre or less of land. Their parents on average owned 10-20 acres - but gave birth to 10 kids.

Remember the arable land in kenya is just 11 percent - and most of it has been subdivided into tiny unproductive portions. Therefore you have kalenjin men flocking to be watchmen in Nairobi and many women now flocking into house girls.

Flower farms, sweat jobs and mass employers is only hope.

Yeah, Kenyans are a hard lot to understand through most of the economic models.
It is said that Kenyans are choosy even when unemployed. Many will reject a job and leave you bewildered, then you find them after an year and they are just doing somewhat 'fine'.

The issue is having a fall back position in land and shags home where you won't lack a house and food. Our peasantry land ownership makes nonsense of the grand scale wage based economic disruption. The hustle culture has also made Kenyan youths cocky sure that siwezi kosa kitu ya kufanya.


You cannot uproot the Kalenjin youths to Lamu even for jobs. They only want to join jeshi, police or funny NYS to march with spades  :D :D :D

The lot am finding ambitious is the single mothers and young women going to the gulf for house jobs.

Once we sort productivity bottlenecks in the hustles, incomes will rise. More investment into innovations, scaling up/expansion, more stock, improvements.

A hawker uses half day running from kanjo; only sells for an hour or two; 2-5 days earnings to bribe kanjo.  There was a story of a woman forced to close a pub in Kitengela. A simple pub employs 2-3 permanent wait; 2 more temps; a mutura/soup guy outside and still gives good money to the owner. One OCS and fellow buggers takes all the margins to go splash on malaya or build desolate house at home to be occupied once an year.

Kenyans are not unemployed. They have an income problem. You can't solve income problem with sweat shops. Due to land rights and literary levels kenyans won't take sweat shop jobs. So gout model is the only one that can work

The problem is even without land the young can still generate income in the informal sector. Until kenyan markets are formalized fully you won't have kenyans in sweat shops. Which is a great thing for human dignity and quality of life. Even in poor populous countries like India there they won't embrace the American level of sweatshops in large scale. China was able to do it due to authoritarianism. They are having a hard time to keep it going
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on April 03, 2022, 08:37:18 AM
The current state of play is worse in recent memory
USD is now 115 kshs to a dollar
Debt has increased by 500B kshs due to Kshs depreciation
Bitting fuel shortage
Inflation.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on April 03, 2022, 01:51:15 PM
Even the crazy electricity price cuts have crippled Kenya Power. Power outages are taking weeks to fix.

It is a 100 days of serious hopelessness.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on April 04, 2022, 02:03:50 PM
Sri Lanka has gone bust. Tamil Tigers civil war beckoning. These things once mismanaged have predictable outcomes.

https://indianexpress.com/article/world/sri-lanka-economic-crisis-protests-mk-stalin-tamil-refugees-7847136/lite/

The chronology shows it ain't different from ours.

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/explaining-sri-lankas-economic-crisis/article65275579.ece/amp/
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on April 04, 2022, 02:17:46 PM
Seems the plan was to hold on to shit till August but it is hitting the fan earlier.

https://www.facebook.com/nation/posts/10160407736459497
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on April 04, 2022, 05:46:36 PM
Yes kenya is going srilank way unless something is done
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on April 06, 2022, 10:16:04 AM
Even BBI's Ben Sihanya led KIPPRA approves the lords of poverty have messed up

https://nation.africa/kenya/news/-kenyans-worse-off-under-uhuruto-report--3772824
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on April 07, 2022, 07:37:45 AM
Shortage of nearly everything and prizes have doubled..dollar approaching 120..it's surreal
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on April 07, 2022, 09:14:30 AM
Uhuru last budget on the background of collapsed economy. Ruto gov will throw this budget through the window and make radical suplimentary budget. Borana should concentrate on Upya party
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Georgesoros on April 08, 2022, 01:09:32 AM
Shortage of nearly everything and prizes have doubled..dollar approaching 120..it's surreal

Did you just wake up from loong slumber.???
In case you were not aware, inflation is all over the world. Developed countries worse.
My gasoline budget tripled. Food budget - i only eat once. Buying anything is on HOLD till................
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on April 08, 2022, 09:04:52 AM
Okay - re-assuring.
Did you just wake up from loong slumber.???
In case you were not aware, inflation is all over the world. Developed countries worse.
My gasoline budget tripled. Food budget - i only eat once. Buying anything is on HOLD till................
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on April 08, 2022, 11:12:56 AM
We are talking of government created shortages not inflation. Shortages!

Shortage of nearly everything and prizes have doubled..dollar approaching 120..it's surreal

Did you just wake up from loong slumber.???
In case you were not aware, inflation is all over the world. Developed countries worse.
My gasoline budget tripled. Food budget - i only eat once. Buying anything is on HOLD till................
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Georgesoros on April 08, 2022, 03:18:11 PM
We are talking of government created shortages not inflation. Shortages!

Shortage of nearly everything and prizes have doubled..dollar approaching 120..it's surreal

Did you just wake up from loong slumber.???
In case you were not aware, inflation is all over the world. Developed countries worse.
My gasoline budget tripled. Food budget - i only eat once. Buying anything is on HOLD till................

How can a govt create a shortage?
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on April 08, 2022, 03:28:30 PM
Jesus - one would think you studied at least basic of market economy - market inefficiencies like fuel subsibdy where gov owes petrol
companies 30B - and therefore they cannot continue in business.

How comes you call yourself georgesoros? When you dont understand market failures like we've got going on in kenya now - where desperate gov trying to remain popular - has interfered and cannot meet it's end of the bargain.

How can a govt create a shortage?
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on April 12, 2022, 09:30:09 AM
Nationwide fuel shortage continues. This will shave some points from the economy.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: hk on April 13, 2022, 09:23:19 AM
Debt is choking the economy, government doesn't have money to maintain fuel subsidy which was a dumb idea. Inflation coupled with failed rains it means the economy is in severe recession. The prudent thing would be to slash the budget, raise the interest rates to choke off inflation, liberalize the economy(especially the energy sector). Budget deficit has to be brought down to 4%. To enact this the consequences would be rough but the economy needs a shock therapy to stabilize and recover.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on April 13, 2022, 09:57:36 AM
Uhuru and his finance wariah are busy campaigning. Until after august - we are on autopilot. Things will continue to get worse.
Debt is choking the economy, government doesn't have money to maintain fuel subsidy which was a dumb idea. Inflation coupled with failed rains it means the economy is in severe recession. The prudent thing would be to slash the budget, raise the interest rates to choke off inflation, liberalize the economy(especially the energy sector). Budget deficit has to be brought down to 4%. To enact this the consequences would be rough but the economy needs a shock therapy to stabilize and recover.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on April 13, 2022, 12:37:18 PM
Subsidising the rich as you introduce VAT on food for the poor crying for lower food prices. My car owners and matatu owners are well off. Boda bodas? There is a ceiling where the fares cannot go past given already over 30% walk to work.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-09/kenya-s-fuel-subsidy-regressive-and-inefficient-imf-says

Seems the plan is to illegally make the Finance Bill 2022 effective asap and siphon the taxes for campaigns.
https://kenyanwallstreet.com/government-to-impose-16-vat-on-flour-in-proposed-bill/

https://www.citizen.digital/news/tougher-times-ahead-as-govt-seeks-slap-flour-alcohol-beauty-products-with-more-tax-n296153

No VAT on unga is more equitable. As with other licences hurting micro and small business in favour of giants, the pro rata basis can help. How can we subsidise matatus and boda bodas? Smart cards, maybe- exemption on some licences??

KRA already squeezing millers of double cess.
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/news/counties/millers-up-in-arms-over-new-nairobi-cereal-cess-3747924
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Georgesoros on April 13, 2022, 05:28:23 PM
OMG!!! You mean they can do that?
https://www.kenyans.co.ke/news/74759-epra-punishes-oil-marketers-over-fuel-shortage
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on April 14, 2022, 01:07:09 AM
Deportation papers for Rubis MD signed. Must have incited others to play hard ball - let the money hit our accounts.
It is profits stupid. Even if it is ufool's mama, she won't supply cang'aa at a loss.

https://nation.africa/kenya/business/fuel-shortage-kenya-deports-rubis-ceo-3781470
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on April 14, 2022, 05:50:59 AM
Will they force oil marketers to sell fuel? This is nonsense. Just remove oil subsidy. Pay the old subsidies. Let market forces fix supply and demand imbalances.

If they think oil companies are in business to help them win election - they are in for rude shock.

Things will become even more elephant - as Rubis guys will simply stop operation.

Deportation papers for Rubis MD signed. Must have incited others to play hard ball - let the money hit our accounts.
It is profits stupid. Even if it is ufool's mama, she won't supply cang'aa at a loss.

https://nation.africa/kenya/business/fuel-shortage-kenya-deports-rubis-ceo-3781470
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on April 15, 2022, 02:35:20 PM
Importers cannot find dollars..next ni black market for dollars..kshs to depreciate..and mlevi think he will campaign for Raila.This 1992... withdraw your kshs saving..invest in propery
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on April 18, 2022, 12:32:44 PM
Dollar rationing - only max of 100K kshs
https://www.the-star.co.ke/business/kenya/2022-04-18-dollar-crunch-to-fuel-shortage-of-basic-commodities-importers/?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1650269845
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on April 21, 2022, 03:02:57 PM
This is good for Kenya power and the economy.
No need for subsidies which will kill Kenya and plunge Kenya into darkness.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/energy-ministry-goes-mute-as-deadline-for-second-power-cut-3788938
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on April 22, 2022, 12:20:52 PM
ufool wants claps for job well done

Quote
Five suicides were reported on Wednesday, seven on Tuesday, totalling 12 in two days.

They are the latest in a horrific trend blamed on mental distress caused by Covid-19 effects, hard economic times and family problems.

All the victims were male and died by hanging.

The latest deaths happened in Gesonso and Ramasha in Kisii, Mathira in Nyeri, Ndanai, Sotik in Bomet and Kenol in Murang'a
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-04-21-twelve-men-hang-themselves-in-two-days-leaving-trail-of-grief/
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on April 26, 2022, 11:30:52 AM
As schools reopen a new wave of fuel shortage. It will be crisis to another in next 100 days autopilot.

https://nation.africa/kenya/business/epra-on-the-spot-as-a-new-wave-of-fuel-shortage-hits--3794304

Njoroge has officially accepted he is managing forex. We are Sri Lanka.
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/cbk-orders-banks-to-ration-scarce-dollars-3793078


Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on April 26, 2022, 01:38:58 PM
Exogenous Risk due to Russia-NATO crisis
Internal election Risk - delayed investment & capital flight
This is going to go down.
Any small problem we are in Sri Lanka.
This period Uhuru need to sober up.
As schools reopen a new wave of fuel shortage. It will be crisis to another in next 100 days autopilot.

https://nation.africa/kenya/business/epra-on-the-spot-as-a-new-wave-of-fuel-shortage-hits--3794304

Njoroge has officially accepted he is managing forex. We are Sri Lanka.
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/cbk-orders-banks-to-ration-scarce-dollars-3793078



Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on April 27, 2022, 12:29:49 PM
I used to hear KBL used to fuliza Treasury. Now it is more of a tax agent rather than a beer company working for shareholders and customers.

Quote
"I think the tax changes will be a disaster. Ten percent is too much. It will make beer and spirits very expensive. It will affect the whole ecosystem from farmers, bar owners and distributors. It will not be good for anybody," Ms Karuku said on Tuesday.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/corporate/companies/eabl-to-raise-beer-price-if-tax-passed-3795448
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Kadudu on April 27, 2022, 12:52:40 PM
I thought it is a Russia-Ukraine crisis. Where does NATO come in?
Even countries like Japan and Australia are supplying arms to Ukraine. As far as I know they are not in NATO.
Also do not forget Kenya condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It is only we are not in a position to supply arms to Ukraine, otherwise we would. :)

Exogenous Risk due to Russia-NATO crisis
Internal election Risk - delayed investment & capital flight
This is going to go down.
Any small problem we are in Sri Lanka.
This period Uhuru need to sober up.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Georgesoros on May 01, 2022, 05:59:47 PM
Greed kills.
So a business significantly raises prices - People buy less or switch to an alternative - Business lays off workers and they have no buying power - Soon nobody shows up to buy - Business closes. That's where we are headed, so be prepared.
It self destructive.
I was told today that iron sheets cost kshs1200 - regularly kshs400. That is extortion.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on May 01, 2022, 06:29:33 PM
Business dont control price of steel or raw materials or inputs.
Business want to sell more.
The price is competitive - because of other competitors - so they dont control it.
So the problem is bigger than business.
They are only raising prices as the last resort.
Greed kills.
So a business significantly raises prices - People buy less or switch to an alternative - Business lays off workers and they have no buying power - Soon nobody shows up to buy - Business closes. That's where we are headed, so be prepared.
It self destructive.
I was told today that iron sheets cost kshs1200 - regularly kshs400. That is extortion.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on May 03, 2022, 03:21:54 PM
With ufool just like ssebo crying they are not to blame and we seek poverty alternatives, they will be blowback. They have become too comfortable and blind.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/-breakf-ast-3802462
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Georgesoros on May 04, 2022, 08:03:05 PM
Yes the cost of petrol, oil, electric, labor went up by maybe 10%, but does it warrant doubling the price of basics?. Consumers will cut back forcing factories etc to cut back, and then layoffs and then more cutbacks.  Prices need to be stabilized so as not to destabilize the whole system. More production need to come online and that is the only way to reduce prices.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on May 08, 2022, 01:44:04 PM
Matiang'i/Magoha cheating brouhaha has choked economies built around the once vibrant higher education.

Quote
Prof Wainaina said capitation from the National Government has remained constant at Sh3 billion over the last few years despite the rising cost of running the university over the same period.

He said the reduction in the number of self-sponsored students since 2016 has seen finances dwindle.
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/education/kenyatta-university-to-lay-off-hundreds-of-staff-3807860
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on May 30, 2022, 01:19:01 PM
Formal sector trickle downists who want respectable jobs wako na kazi.

Quote
The share of bank accounts with more than Sh100,000 matches the earnings power of Kenya’s formal sectors workers.

Those earning more than Sh100,000 accounted for 2.9 percent of the 2.7 million formal workers captured in the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) database in 2020.
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/corporate/industry/bank-accounts-reveal-kenya-s-pay-inequality-3831592

This is the 100 billions hasoras need to get back.
Quote
Broke traders, who are banks’ second largest borrowers, defaulted on Sh100 billion in loans last year, indicating they are still struggling to shake off the lingering effects of the Covid-19 pandemic despite a reopening of the economy that has allowed full resumption of economic activities.

The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has expressed concerns over the high rate of loan defaults in four sectors — trade, real estate, manufacturing and personal and households — and wants banks to sufficiently make provisions in case the borrowers are completely unable to repay the loans.
https://nation.africa/kenya/business/struggling-traders-default-on-sh100bn-loans-due-to-covid-3831558
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on May 30, 2022, 01:47:11 PM
Dollar shortages persist.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Arcadian_Dreamer on June 01, 2022, 07:27:12 AM
The foolishness of the current global economic system is staggering. African peasants going hungry because of a war in Ukraine? unbelievable.

The current world order needs to collapse.

Jesus take the wheel.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Georgesoros on June 01, 2022, 06:33:19 PM
The foolishness of the current global economic system is staggering. African peasants going hungry because of a war in Ukraine? unbelievable.

The current world order needs to collapse.

Jesus take the wheel.
Lots of arable land has been divided, then subdivided, then again sub-sub divided so people can have land???
Counties need to be reward ed for more land for agri business.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on June 06, 2022, 02:21:57 PM
Rubber is meeting the road.
Quote
Pwani oil has shut down operations, attributing it to the shortage of the dollars that has made it difficult to pay suppliers.

With this, the Prices of cooking oil is set to shoot to an all-time high this week.

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-06-06-pwani-oil-shuts-plant-blames-lack-of-dollars/
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on June 06, 2022, 04:45:36 PM
Very bad sign
We could go to 1993 hyperinflation and KSH depreciation.
Ufool may exceed Moi record of economic blunder
Rubber is meeting the road.
Quote
Pwani oil has shut down operations, attributing it to the shortage of the dollars that has made it difficult to pay suppliers.

With this, the Prices of cooking oil is set to shoot to an all-time high this week.

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-06-06-pwani-oil-shuts-plant-blames-lack-of-dollars/
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on June 16, 2022, 07:55:56 AM
Fuliza has to be stopped.

Quote
Kenya’s 14 microfinance banks more than halved their pre-tax losses last year to Sh877 million, helped by reduced loan loss provisions.

The institutions marked their sixth year of consecutive losses, having reported a loss before tax of Sh2.2 billion in 2020 that was attributed to a lower appetite for loans and increased defaults in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Quote
Microlenders such as Faulu Microfinance Bank, Maisha and Rafiki Microfinance Bank Limited took the largest loss positions of Sh522 million, Sh178 million and Sh153 million respectively.

The industry has faced stiff competition from mobile lenders amid increasing uptake of financial services through mobile, a shift also pushing commercial banks to adopt digital solutions to widen their reach.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/corporate/companies/microfinance-banks-pre-tax-losses-cut-to-sh877-million-3848652
Mauritius inc Branch's acquiring a MFI?
Quote
According to CBK, Branch which was incorporated in Kenya on April 2, 2015 is wholly owned by Branch International Holding Limited based in Mauritius.

The Mauritius parent company is fully owned by Branch International Inc., a company incorporated in Delaware, United States of America.

“Branch is one of the largest mobile application based lenders in the country and brings financial services to the emerging markets by leveraging on the powers of technology. Branch’s total assets stood at Kshs. 1.1 billion as at December 31, 2020,” CBK said in a statement.

https://www.kbc.co.ke/branch-acquires-majority-shareholding-in-century-microfinance-bank/
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on June 16, 2022, 08:00:00 AM
Everyone should be allowed to use M-pesa to launch their Fulizas -with variable interest rate.
Mpesa need to be made a platform.
Then MFIs should all be linked to it.
Fuliza is great because it strongly linked to M-pesa - they can deduct from account directly.
The playing field has to be levelled.
Fuliza has to be stopped.

Quote
Kenya’s 14 microfinance banks more than halved their pre-tax losses last year to Sh877 million, helped by reduced loan loss provisions.

The institutions marked their sixth year of consecutive losses, having reported a loss before tax of Sh2.2 billion in 2020 that was attributed to a lower appetite for loans and increased defaults in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Quote
Microlenders such as Faulu Microfinance Bank, Maisha and Rafiki Microfinance Bank Limited took the largest loss positions of Sh522 million, Sh178 million and Sh153 million respectively.

The industry has faced stiff competition from mobile lenders amid increasing uptake of financial services through mobile, a shift also pushing commercial banks to adopt digital solutions to widen their reach.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/corporate/companies/microfinance-banks-pre-tax-losses-cut-to-sh877-million-3848652
Mauritius inc Branch's acquiring a MFI?
Quote
According to CBK, Branch which was incorporated in Kenya on April 2, 2015 is wholly owned by Branch International Holding Limited based in Mauritius.

The Mauritius parent company is fully owned by Branch International Inc., a company incorporated in Delaware, United States of America.

“Branch is one of the largest mobile application based lenders in the country and brings financial services to the emerging markets by leveraging on the powers of technology. Branch’s total assets stood at Kshs. 1.1 billion as at December 31, 2020,” CBK said in a statement.

https://www.kbc.co.ke/branch-acquires-majority-shareholding-in-century-microfinance-bank/
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on June 16, 2022, 10:59:59 AM
This is clearly your stuff :D :D

I remember Idd Salim always making noise to have MPesa API opened up for developers. Guy had his Mpesa blocked at some time. Now all his ideas are implemented while he died a frustrated fella. At a great $ cost to all sort of mzungu wannabes.

Everyone should be allowed to use M-pesa to launch their Fulizas -with variable interest rate.
Mpesa need to be made a platform.
Then MFIs should all be linked to it.
Fuliza is great because it strongly linked to M-pesa - they can deduct from account directly.
The playing field has to be levelled.
Fuliza has to be stopped.

Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on June 16, 2022, 01:14:03 PM
Remember the Uganda.
Yeah I think for M-pesa need to become independent platform.
This is clearly your stuff :D :D

I remember Idd Salim always making noise to have MPesa API opened up for developers. Guy had his Mpesa blocked at some time. Now all his ideas are implemented while he died a frustrated fella. At a great $ cost to all sort of mzungu wannabes.

Everyone should be allowed to use M-pesa to launch their Fulizas -with variable interest rate.
Mpesa need to be made a platform.
Then MFIs should all be linked to it.
Fuliza is great because it strongly linked to M-pesa - they can deduct from account directly.
The playing field has to be levelled.
Fuliza has to be stopped.

Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on June 20, 2022, 02:36:22 PM
Hata London.
Quote
The TUC said there was “harrowing” evidence of the impact the crisis on families, with workers suffering the “longest and harshest” squeeze on earnings in modern history.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/18/march-protest-london-tuc-cost-of-living-crisis
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on June 23, 2022, 05:09:51 PM
Ndii unpacks the IT IS GLOBAL nonsense. We are in fivefold jeopardy- loans, repayments, destroyed business during COVID, njaa and now  high cost of living.

Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Georgesoros on June 28, 2022, 01:31:48 AM
One thing about Uhuru is that he has taken many insults and never let it get to him. KUDOS!!!
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on June 28, 2022, 12:04:13 PM
Bado, they will be calling press conferences from Ichaweri by next year together with mama crying ile mbio watapelekwa.

One thing about Uhuru is that he has taken many insults and never let it get to him. KUDOS!!!
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on June 28, 2022, 07:03:23 PM
Exactly.
Bado, they will be calling press conferences from Ichaweri by next year together with mama crying ile mbio watapelekwa.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on July 01, 2022, 12:22:22 PM
Bars which are the remaining employers in the hospitality industry will be wiped out. Beers cost Kshs. 250 -300 is out of reach for broke Kenyans. Only a few kawaida bars can survive.

Beer should not be treated as a luxury item. The long term effects of cheap alcohol is destructive to individual, families and the country.

Quote
Consumers of spirits like whisky, gin and rum are the hardest hit with duty per litre climbing 20.31 percent to Sh335.30 after the House rejected a recommendation by Finance and Planning Committee to spare alcohol from higher taxes this fiscal year.

Duty on beer has also gone up by 9.97 percent to Sh134 per litre, wines by 9.99 percent to Sh229 per litre, while fruit and vegetable juices will increase 9.29 percent to Sh13.30.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/new-beer-juice-and-cosmetic-taxes-kick-in-3865384
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on July 06, 2022, 01:11:57 PM
Midoro crass has moved to inferior products like Gilbeys. Cannot afford partying. Drinking from cars and homes or airbnbs.

Fulizas must the king of inferior goods.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/middle-class-migrates-to-cheaper-brands-on-price-3870226
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on July 19, 2022, 11:54:24 AM
Final test of ufoolism.

Quote
Documents guiding the planned subsidy indicate that the government will open an ESCROW account under the watch of the Ministry of Agriculture and the Central Bank of Kenya.

“Oversight committee shall be formed with representatives from the Ministry of Agriculture, National Treasury, Cereal Millers Association and Grain Millers Association to oversee the effective working and success of the subsidy programme,” said the ministry in a document seen by the Business Daily.

The government says funds will be placed in the ESCROW account to ensure timely payments to the millers as they release flour to the market.

An official of the Cereal Millers Association confirmed the subsidy plan but said that the prices are unlikely to come down this week because of the old stocks that are already in supply on the market.

“This is a good initiative but the price will take some days before it drops because of the expensive flour that is currently on the market,” said the official.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/markets/commodities/traders-risk-sh1m-fine-for-selling-maize-flour-above-sh100-3884212
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on July 22, 2022, 07:52:43 PM
Forex fall below 4.5m cover Forex reserves fall be low 4.5 months of import cover contrary to EAC's macroeconomic convergence criteria.
***********************
"The usable foreign exchange reserves remained adequate at
USD 7,727 million (4.46 months of import cover) as of July
21. This meets the CBK’s statutory requirement to endeavor
to maintain at least 4 months of import cover." CBK
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on July 29, 2022, 12:56:43 PM
CBK Governor Njoroge hazy blah de bleh - can't make head from tail of Kenyan economy.

Nothing to worry. It was resolved. That was last week story.  Blah de bleh 

Nothing to show in his tenure except poor quality notes printed ati hasla has monies in containers.


https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/corporate/boss-talk/cbk-boss-economy-is-healthy-ahead-of-polls-3895502
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on August 07, 2022, 03:52:16 PM
Unga lines all over. People searching for it like gold.

Sugar has hit Kshs. 150 per kilo.

Global prices are at around Kshs. 60
https://www.isosugar.org/prices.php?pricerange=last30
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on August 20, 2022, 04:40:42 PM
They better let hasla start working. These subsidies need to Kenyatta's account.
Must have been diverted to campaigns and pandora. Baba might have quite a lot of cash lying around in Oponda too.

https://www.the-star.co.ke/business/kenya/2022-08-20-fuel-supply-cut-looms-as-marketers-demand-sh65-billion-debt/
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: KenyanPlato on August 21, 2022, 03:45:59 AM
They better let hasla start working. These subsidies need to Kenyatta's account.
Must have been diverted to campaigns and pandora. Baba might have quite a lot of cash lying around in Oponda too.

https://www.the-star.co.ke/business/kenya/2022-08-20-fuel-supply-cut-looms-as-marketers-demand-sh65-billion-debt/
you make no sense you freaking idiot
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: patel on August 21, 2022, 04:25:30 PM
Unga back to 200+ for 2kg packet,  looming sugar shortage plus fuel dealers demanding 65 billion....
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Georgesoros on August 22, 2022, 09:37:18 PM
Unga back to 200+ for 2kg packet,  looming sugar shortage plus fuel dealers demanding 65 billion....

I wish he moves faster to spell out policies embracing law and order - no hustling from govt coffers (Corruption), otherwise things will go downhill.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on August 23, 2022, 02:48:50 PM
The coffers are empty. Debts and very low productivity across all economic sectors. They will be ripping apart Kenyattas and Mois empires as they focus on making economy and government work for the hasoras.

Unga back to 200+ for 2kg packet,  looming sugar shortage plus fuel dealers demanding 65 billion....

I wish he moves faster to spell out policies embracing law and order - no hustling from govt coffers (Corruption), otherwise things will go downhill.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on August 25, 2022, 12:02:58 PM
Quote
Bank loan defaults have crossed the half a trillion shilling mark for the first time, setting up thousands of borrowers for property seizures in an economy hit with reduced cash flows and inflation that has squeezed household budgets and demand for goods.

The latest Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) data shows that defaulted loans rose by Sh30.6 billion in June to Sh514.4 billion -- the sharpest monthly increase in recent history.

The mounting defaults are a reflection of the struggles of workers and businesses in an economy that is yet to fully recover from a coronavirus-induced slump, which triggered job cuts and business closures.
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/markets/capital-markets/bank-loan-defaults-cross-half-a-trillion-for-the-first-time-3925518
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Stockguru on August 26, 2022, 03:19:17 PM
I know things are thick economic3ally in kenya because i am getting m7 requests ev4ery other week to help vinyangarikas in kenya with money
How do I respond I block the requester
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: KenyanPlato on August 26, 2022, 04:01:31 PM
most of the people in dire needs are kikuyu women. the educated ones are very inflexible and have been opening their wombs to higher bidder leaving them with burden of raising bastards. kikuyu men are able to retool and go to the gutter and restrategize but women are very egoistic
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: KenyanPlato on August 26, 2022, 04:02:46 PM
when I advised these morons to abandon their high end life eg expensive apartment and schools for kids they refused to. two years later they are depressed snd on verge of suicide
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: patel on August 28, 2022, 01:08:28 AM
Cut across the tribal line. Welcome to Instagram age where everyone is doing well and taking expensive vacations to Dubai, Maldives or mykonos. Ngels don't want to be tied down in marriage with hasoras while they could be dating 10 or more mbabas. 1 to cater for rent, other for car, other for other ghasia..etc etc kenya is a single mother's nation shida tupu...Kenya is minting young beautiful ngels faster than mbaba can consume them we need more hasoras to move up the totem pole just to keep up with demand...its pite

most of the people in dire needs are kikuyu women. the educated ones are very inflexible and have been opening their wombs to higher bidder leaving them with burden of raising bastards. kikuyu men are able to retool and go to the gutter and restrategize but women are very egoistic
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: KenyanPlato on August 28, 2022, 02:12:49 AM
yeah 1 million girls are joining the Kuma business yearly. it is a pity. the naive gals are the ones that go to university and never commit to marriage and now are stuck in the most expensive city on Africa with no man to share costs
 plus most of these women are taking care of their deadbeat parents and siblings. shida tupu. a friend of mine is doing her PhD research on sponsor economy ...
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on September 05, 2022, 03:59:01 PM
No surprises. The subsidy was mismanaged.  With the cold seasons about to end, maize from local production will start getting to the market.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/state-yet-to-pay-millers-sh4bn-in-maize-plan-3936946

As it is, the economy is the only opposition to Hasla.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on September 09, 2022, 02:38:49 PM
Govt paralysis and crazy foreign policy sees TZ flexing with maize traders.
Quote
The raft of measures issued by Tanzania a fortnight ago also makes it mandatory for importers and exporters of grain to register with the Business Registrations and Licensing Agency (BRELA) and obtain a trading permit.

Traders will also be required to present tax clearance certificate and show business permit issued by BRELA allowing them to trade on grain before they are allowed to export the commodities.

Before this, Kenyan traders bringing in maize from Tanzania were only required to have export permits, according to United Grain Millers Association chairperson Ken Nyaga.

These strict conditions have seen traders cut on imports from Tanzania, worsening the situation locally given limited supply of maize locally.

Some millers and animal feed manufacturers raised concerns early in the week that Tanzania had stopped issuing permits last week, cutting the supply of the grain locally.

I have Keg is already too expensive thus the increasing bursts on unlicensed liquor factories.
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/markets/commodities/keg-beer-lovers-to-pay-more-as-price-goes-up-next-month-3940608
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: patel on September 11, 2022, 07:53:09 PM
600 birrion in pending bills....Jesus. suppliers who really supplied govt. and county governments must be crying.  A lot will be wiped out.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: patel on September 26, 2022, 03:37:38 PM
Compound that with famine...ni kubaya boss
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on September 29, 2022, 01:44:55 PM
An indicator of entrenched poverty and illiteracy.

Quote
The latest industry data from the Communications Authority of Kenya (CA) shows feature phone subscriptions stood at 32.9 million in the year to June, representing 55.1 percent market share.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/corporate/technology/feature-phones-still-rule-kenyas-handset-market-3965878
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on November 24, 2022, 04:06:52 PM
Banks reaping from digital loans and forex plus usual T Bonds.
Quote
NCBA Group’s after-tax net profit for the nine months to September climbed 96.2 percent to Sh12.8 billion on the back of higher interest income.
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/corporate/companies/ncba-net-profit-surges-record-96-per-cent--4031752
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on November 24, 2022, 05:14:23 PM
Something wrong with Forex market.

Opus dei says it was goldenburg heist.

These are their outcome...super normal margins from forex arbitrage.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on November 29, 2022, 09:21:18 PM
Something needs to be found to fine them heavily. This is economic sabotage if not terrorism.

Quote
Banks earnings from trading forex currencies increased 87% to Sh53 billion for January to September period due to high demand for dollars for imports.

Banks have been buying dollars at Sh120 and selling them at Sh130.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on December 07, 2022, 04:26:49 PM
World Bank fingers ufool for pro-rich economic pursuits. State capture and crony capitalism.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/-world-bank-faults-uhuru-s-growth-for-helping-the-rich--4045792
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on December 14, 2022, 10:36:37 AM
For beer it is clearly the obnoxious taxes and lack of competition but for others like sukuma and meat are not making sense. We could be having the most expensive beers in the world at crazy $2 for largely pathetic eabl horse piss.

Why are people not going back to farms despite the high food prices? 
Sukuma takes 4 weeks. Poor weather?? Really??

Meat prices rose even when pastoralists were throwing away their livestock.
Quote
The KNBS data show that the average price of a kilo of sukuma wiki rose by 50.02 per cent to an average of Sh54.47 last year as poor weather continued to affect the crop.

Quote
The price of a kilo of matumbo, also a popular dish among low-income households, rose by 48.4 per cent to an average of Sh279.66 in 2021 from Sh188.39 in the review period.

The price of Tusker beer, popular with most middle-class beer drinkers, increased by 47.1 per cent to Sh174.52 in 2019 when KNBS stopped tracking the price of this alcoholic beverage, shifting to Lager and Stouts.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/beer-beef-prices-in-sharpest-rise-as-kenya-fights-drought--4054132
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on December 14, 2022, 11:48:20 AM
I think crazy seasonal variation in vegetables and fruits due to rain fed agriculture is normal in Kenya.The drought affected Mt Kenya which source of vegetables..If you plant sukuma wiki in kericho I think transport will eat you ..so only make sense in areas around Nairobi.Beef and others reflect real inflation..ikipanda imepanda forever
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: KenyanPlato on January 13, 2023, 05:54:46 PM
Njuguna has declared that the economy won't be revived soon. that is clear admission by uda regime that the economy has collapsed. Anyway we knew this from the get go. poor kenyans will have to endure another year of misery ..Rains are predicted to fail again this year
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on January 14, 2023, 06:56:45 AM
These days kenya economy "fails" when it grow at 5.5 percent or 6 percent - that mean we should be aiming for 7.5 percent growth - which is prerequisite to get to middle class.

Yes most are predicting 5.5 percent this year -  all depend on the global economic crisis playing out - and rain.

Njuguna has declared that the economy won't be revived soon. that is clear admission by uda regime that the economy has collapsed. Anyway we knew this from the get go. poor kenyans will have to endure another year of misery ..Rains are predicted to fail again this year
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: hk on January 14, 2023, 12:20:08 PM
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/taxman-misses-revenue-target-by-sh32-2bn-in-first-five-months--4083266 all the crazy tax collection projections wont be met. Meaning budget deficit will still be more than 8%.  Banks are raising interest rates so credit will be expensive. Government can digitize everything and still wont collect the projected taxes. The only solution has to be to reignite private sector growth driven by increase in production.
The hustler fund 50b. If instead of the fund the government lowered VAT to 14% which would cost roughly the same amount, it'd have increased demand then production. Or raising paye lowest brackets from 13k to 15k. This might have been more stimulative( humble opinion). 
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Georgesoros on January 16, 2023, 09:54:14 PM
Njuguna has declared that the economy won't be revived soon. that is clear admission by uda regime that the economy has collapsed. Anyway we knew this from the get go. poor kenyans will have to endure another year of misery ..Rains are predicted to fail again this year

In all fairness, economy takes a while to grow. Its like starting or stopping a train. I also support HK's idea of lowering the VAT from 14%.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Nowayhaha on January 16, 2023, 10:49:43 PM

I like the honesty of Njuguna , he needs to keep telling Ruto the truth , so that political hawks can be tamed otherwise the same people who associated with Hustler party will turn against Ruto the way they turned against Uhuru and  Jubilee .
Ruto needs to solve economy matters and Joblessness within 3 uears if he doesnt he will be in Moi shoes of 90s where a few Kales like Pundit will be celebrating and defending him.

Njuguna has declared that the economy won't be revived soon. that is clear admission by uda regime that the economy has collapsed. Anyway we knew this from the get go. poor kenyans will have to endure another year of misery ..Rains are predicted to fail again this year

In all fairness, economy takes a while to grow. Its like starting or stopping a train. I also support HK's idea of lowering the VAT from 14%.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on January 17, 2023, 04:32:06 AM
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/taxman-misses-revenue-target-by-sh32-2bn-in-first-five-months--4083266 all the crazy tax collection projections wont be met. Meaning budget deficit will still be more than 8%.  Banks are raising interest rates so credit will be expensive. Government can digitize everything and still wont collect the projected taxes. The only solution has to be to reignite private sector growth driven by increase in production.
The hustler fund 50b. If instead of the fund the government lowered VAT to 14% which would cost roughly the same amount, it'd have increased demand then production. Or raising paye lowest brackets from 13k to 15k. This might have been more stimulative( humble opinion). 
Lower tax when we have 1.3 trillion kshs to be repaid...doesn't sound we will be doing it.We have to lower budget...Njunguna job is to cut 300b.Hustler fund should be better targeted at the poor. Also thankfully nobody lending to Kenya...so debt problem is getting resolved. Next year will be tough with Eurobond payments in 2024..so ideally recovery will happen in 2025...these two years are lost.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on January 17, 2023, 04:34:25 AM

I like the honesty of Njuguna , he needs to keep telling Ruto the truth , so that political hawks can be tamed otherwise the same people who associated with Hustler party will turn against Ruto the way they turned against Uhuru and  Jubilee .
Ruto needs to solve economy matters and Joblessness within 3 uears if he doesnt he will be in Moi shoes of 90s where a few Kales like Pundit will be celebrating and defending him.

Njuguna has declared that the economy won't be revived soon. that is clear admission by uda regime that the economy has collapsed. Anyway we knew this from the get go. poor kenyans will have to endure another year of misery ..Rains are predicted to fail again this year

In all fairness, economy takes a while to grow. Its like starting or stopping a train. I also support HK's idea of lowering the VAT from 14%.
You should join oppposition early...Ruto is fixing kikuyu ihuru mess.Until then shut up.it will require two years to undo five years of mess by the drunkard
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: hk on January 18, 2023, 10:14:29 AM
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/taxman-misses-revenue-target-by-sh32-2bn-in-first-five-months--4083266 all the crazy tax collection projections wont be met. Meaning budget deficit will still be more than 8%.  Banks are raising interest rates so credit will be expensive. Government can digitize everything and still wont collect the projected taxes. The only solution has to be to reignite private sector growth driven by increase in production.
The hustler fund 50b. If instead of the fund the government lowered VAT to 14% which would cost roughly the same amount, it'd have increased demand then production. Or raising paye lowest brackets from 13k to 15k. This might have been more stimulative( humble opinion). 
Lower tax when we have 1.3 trillion kshs to be repaid...doesn't sound we will be doing it.We have to lower budget...Njunguna job is to cut 300b.Hustler fund should be better targeted at the poor. Also thankfully nobody lending to Kenya...so debt problem is getting resolved. Next year will be tough with Eurobond payments in 2024..so ideally recovery will happen in 2025...these two years are lost.
Njuguna 300b cuts are for 2023-24 and next year budget is being raised by same amount, so there's no budget cuts.  Meanwhile government is spending like we aren't in debt distress https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/state-bursts-recurrent-budget-forecast-by-sh81-7bn--4084638 . It's obvious that hustler fund is creating fiscal havoc with little economic benefit overall.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on January 18, 2023, 10:34:05 AM
Revenues are set to grow to 2.6 - 3 trillion - so yes there is a budget cut. Also Njunguna to his credit has been rejecting expensive tbills/bonds. External borrowing outside IMF has dried up. Generally borrowing is fine. IMF/WB are happy with progress on fiscal consolidation. I think debt to gdp is down to 62.5%.

How can hustler fund create havoc. Sometimes research kidogo boss. Hustler fund has only spend I think 8B Kshs.....it mostly now rolling fund.

Njuguna 300b cuts are for 2023-24 and next year budget is being raised by same amount, so there's no budget cuts.  Meanwhile government is spending like we aren't in debt distress https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/state-bursts-recurrent-budget-forecast-by-sh81-7bn--4084638 . It's obvious that hustler fund is creating fiscal havoc with little economic benefit overall.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Nowayhaha on January 18, 2023, 10:45:23 AM


From 2018 when I realised Uhuru had messed up I joined Ruto in fighting him. If Ruto takes Uhuru route I will start fighting him too.
Meanwhile continue dickriding . Im not into that

I like the honesty of Njuguna , he needs to keep telling Ruto the truth , so that political hawks can be tamed otherwise the same people who associated with Hustler party will turn against Ruto the way they turned against Uhuru and  Jubilee .
Ruto needs to solve economy matters and Joblessness within 3 uears if he doesnt he will be in Moi shoes of 90s where a few Kales like Pundit will be celebrating and defending him.

Njuguna has declared that the economy won't be revived soon. that is clear admission by uda regime that the economy has collapsed. Anyway we knew this from the get go. poor kenyans will have to endure another year of misery ..Rains are predicted to fail again this year

In all fairness, economy takes a while to grow. Its like starting or stopping a train. I also support HK's idea of lowering the VAT from 14%.
You should join oppposition early...Ruto is fixing kikuyu ihuru mess.Until then shut up.it will require two years to undo five years of mess by the drunkard
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on January 18, 2023, 11:08:22 AM
Surely you're too busy with Putin tiny winy - you cant handle bigger stuff. You're already in opposition because Ruto is going to be taking a dick (dig) at Uhuru and will let Raila the idiot walk free.

From 2018 when I realised Uhuru had messed up I joined Ruto in fighting him. If Ruto takes Uhuru route I will start fighting him too.
Meanwhile continue dickriding . Im not into that
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: hk on January 18, 2023, 01:51:15 PM
Revenues are set to grow to 2.6 - 3 trillion - so yes there is a budget cut. Also Njunguna to his credit has been rejecting expensive tbills/bonds. External borrowing outside IMF has dried up. Generally borrowing is fine. IMF/WB are happy with progress on fiscal consolidation. I think debt to gdp is down to 62.5%.

How can hustler fund create havoc. Sometimes research kidogo boss. Hustler fund has only spend I think 8B Kshs.....it mostly now rolling fund.

Njuguna 300b cuts are for 2023-24 and next year budget is being raised by same amount, so there's no budget cuts.  Meanwhile government is spending like we aren't in debt distress https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/state-bursts-recurrent-budget-forecast-by-sh81-7bn--4084638 . It's obvious that hustler fund is creating fiscal havoc with little economic benefit overall.
“Remaining pressures [Sh130 billion] are mainly related to the July and August pause in fuel price adjustments, the July’s temporary introduction of a maize flour subsidy, unavoidable drought emergency interventions, and the launch of new initiatives from our administration, including plans to support agricultural production by subsidising fertiliser,” Prof Ndung’u said in the letter to the IMF he wrote jointly with Central Bank of Kenya Governor Patrick Njoroge.
“Furthermore, we want to promote financial inclusion by establishing a Financial Inclusion Fund (also known as “Hustler Fund”).”,

The 2.6t taxes collection are just projections. Already the KRA has missed its target for the quarter and there's no robust economic growth that would create taxes collection windfall. The proposed increase in excise duty taxes wont make up for the increase. There's a difference between allocation and disbursement in budgeting. 
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on January 18, 2023, 02:25:41 PM
Revenue for six or five months are already 10 percent up..Ruto is cracking down on fake stamps and kra have to deliver more VAT or go.Borrowing budgeted at just 650b.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: hk on January 18, 2023, 03:50:50 PM
Revenue for six or five months are already 10 percent up..Ruto is cracking down on fake stamps and kra have to deliver more VAT or go.Borrowing budgeted at just 650b.
Up 10% from last year collection but below the projections. Meaning to plug the deficit the government has to borrow more than the projected 650b.  At some point taxation becomes predatory and depresses consumption.  This is what about to happen to alcohol, cosmetics, water, soda and juices.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: KenyanPlato on January 18, 2023, 08:47:56 PM
Revenue for six or five months are already 10 percent up..Ruto is cracking down on fake stamps and kra have to deliver more VAT or go.Borrowing budgeted at just 650b.
Up 10% from last year collection but below the projections. Meaning to plug the deficit the government has to borrow more than the projected 650b.  At some point taxation becomes predatory and depresses consumption.  This is what about to happen to alcohol, cosmetics, water, soda and juices.

uda regime is trying everything but austerity. A lot of innocent kenyans will continue to suffer due to this fiscal irresponsibility
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on January 19, 2023, 09:47:52 AM
I think we are okay - in cleaning up uhuru mess until june.
The half year scores
Revenue are up although below project - by 30b.
Debt is down - as Ruto gov has rejected expensive debt - and kenya is locked out of external debt - we are doing 30% of borrowing - way below 50% of the target.
Only problem - unbudgeted expenditure is nearly 300B - this mostly uhuru inherited mess.
But Ruto has also promised to cut 300B expenditure this year - with suspension of most capital projects.

Ruto maiden budget starts here..
 
Up 10% from last year collection but below the projections. Meaning to plug the deficit the government has to borrow more than the projected 650b.  At some point taxation becomes predatory and depresses consumption.  This is what about to happen to alcohol, cosmetics, water, soda and juices.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on January 24, 2023, 08:31:17 AM
Clearly there was no maize in Rift Valley. Those politicians are sick having stopped Kuria to import maize. The duty free ships with maize and rice should start docking asap otherwise this is reckless of Hasla. The piss falls on his feet.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Georgesoros on January 28, 2023, 07:25:28 PM
Clearly there was no maize in Rift Valley. Those politicians are sick having stopped Kuria to import maize. The duty free ships with maize and rice should start docking asap otherwise this is reckless of Hasla. The piss falls on his feet.

How do you expect crop when land has been divided into tiny pieces. One acre is useless.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on January 29, 2023, 12:07:40 PM
This is pure colonial nonsense. Mt Kenya households have been subsisting on maize/beans with less than an acre and still producing world class quality coffee, tea, milk and high value vegetables. Mwea farmers have 1-2 acres and still doing well.

Clearly there was no maize in Rift Valley. Those politicians are sick having stopped Kuria to import maize. The duty free ships with maize and rice should start docking asap otherwise this is reckless of Hasla. The piss falls on his feet.

How do you expect crop when land has been divided into tiny pieces. One acre is useless.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on February 10, 2023, 11:33:37 AM
SK's PTSD senility is sinking RMS.


https://www.gobeba.com/product/rubis-kenol-kobil-k-gas-6kg-refill/

Baringo are yet to be allowed to harvest mathenge as charcoal while we pretend to save them.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on February 13, 2023, 03:22:57 PM
Hasla should have backed Kuria's plan to import maize way back.

Now there is no white maize in the market.
https://nation.africa/kenya/business/millers-demand-yellow-maize-as-shortage-bites-4120580
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on February 13, 2023, 03:31:30 PM
Linturi is sickeningly incompetent
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on February 16, 2023, 09:37:17 PM
No respite on maize
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: patel on February 18, 2023, 05:08:56 PM
Economic collapse is real. No where to hide. Dollar heading to ksh200 speedi speedi.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Georgesoros on February 20, 2023, 07:52:17 PM
Cheap money that helped many developing nations has disappeared. MegaRich will triple income. Others tighten belts.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on March 03, 2023, 08:29:24 AM
Dollar shortages.Time to look inward and prepare to buy only essentials ?t=dkh6CHj6rFAXClaa09f49Q&s=19
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on March 06, 2023, 10:23:20 PM
Dollar is at 128. If you have projects at kenya time to send the mullah
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: patel on March 07, 2023, 11:43:57 PM
I think we will hit 150 in few weeks before things stabilize.  Am betting on it hitting 175 then retreating back to 120 or so.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on March 08, 2023, 12:31:38 AM
I hope it hit 150 mid year - I want to cash out my retirement and go back to Kenya.
I think we will hit 150 in few weeks before things stabilize.  Am betting on it hitting 175 then retreating back to 120 or so.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Nowayhaha on March 08, 2023, 12:49:05 AM
And there goes the purchasing power, what is KK government doing? If not careful we will go Sri Lanka and Ghana way . This coupled with Railas plan of insurrection is very dangerous .
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on March 08, 2023, 01:33:42 AM
Raila has no plan. Dollars will remain a curve ball. Until US inflation is under control. We are in for a ride. At least ruto has secured critical fuel, food and last thing remaining is to secure medicine. The rest people can do without.

And there goes the purchasing power, what is KK government doing? If not careful we will go Sri Lanka and Ghana way . This coupled with Railas plan of insurrection is very dangerous .
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: hk on March 08, 2023, 06:24:31 PM
Raila has no plan. Dollars will remain a curve ball. Until US inflation is under control. We are in for a ride. At least ruto has secured critical fuel, food and last thing remaining is to secure medicine. The rest people can do without.

And there goes the purchasing power, what is KK government doing? If not careful we will go Sri Lanka and Ghana way . This coupled with Railas plan of insurrection is very dangerous .
2024 will be a make or break year, $1.5b eurobond  is due plus also $4.5b fuel payment.  Tea trading partners e.g. egypt and pakistan have forex problems, remittance might increase marginally or remain the same amount. The only sector that can register significant growth is tourism. Ksh. has depreciated making kenya a cheaper tourist destination.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on March 08, 2023, 07:12:38 PM
Shida..gov borrowing at almost 15% ?t=HYZeWSOYktdEHG45IbrhiQ&s=19
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on March 10, 2023, 07:47:33 AM
The rains have to fall otherwise it is a cliff.

Still the dynasties assets can be seized in a state of emergency to feed the people and buy medicine.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on March 10, 2023, 08:33:54 AM
Pakistani 40% - of kenya tea export - run out of dollars
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/markets/commodities/sh1-3bn-kenyan-tea-held-at-karachi-port--4152960
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on March 29, 2023, 12:06:57 PM
Economy 'recovery' not yet being felt. So far the rains are good.

/photo/1
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on April 04, 2023, 07:19:02 AM
With raging floods, the talk of dams is totally hushed. We are on IEBC.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on April 10, 2023, 03:04:45 PM
Interesting.
Improved health indicators? First generation of self-employed old timers with no pension savings?

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/over-82pc-of-retirees-back-to-work-amid-high-inflation-4193784
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on April 10, 2023, 03:27:41 PM
Not an issues as most of them are part-time farmers. Would only be an issue once we urbanize. Most kenyans invest in their rural abode for post-retirement life.
Interesting.
Improved health indicators? First generation of self-employed old timers with no pension savings?

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/over-82pc-of-retirees-back-to-work-amid-high-inflation-4193784
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on April 10, 2023, 03:38:31 PM
Not necessarily. Looks like rent and food. Even subsistence farming has fallen apart in past 3 years.

Quote
Many of those working were doing so to meet basic needs. Another 6,881 persons above the age of 60 joined young graduates in actively looking for jobs, says the KNBS survey.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Nowayhaha on April 10, 2023, 03:41:54 PM

Mainly due to no post retirement plans
Cost of living having gone high
Poor investment choices with retirement money
Lack of financial support from Children
Lack of a concrete pension investment policy.
Lack of co curricular activities in Kenya
The next generstion of retirees like Pundit will be consumed by alcohol.


Interesting.
Improved health indicators? First generation of self-employed old timers with no pension savings?

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/over-82pc-of-retirees-back-to-work-amid-high-inflation-4193784
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on April 10, 2023, 04:08:52 PM
For the poor walking is enough co-curricular activity. You are aways waking till death.

A small farm is a solid pension plan. Depending on kids as social capital has been working but not with current economic crisis. For the rich, they leave wealth to their brats- we are yet to have many success stories especially where there was no education.

Fombe means there is some disposable income.



Mainly due to no post retirement plans
Cost of living having gone high
Poor investment choices with retirement money
Lack of financial support from Children
Lack of a concrete pension investment policy.
Lack of co curricular activities in Kenya
The next generstion of retirees like Pundit will be consumed by alcohol.


Interesting.
Improved health indicators? First generation of self-employed old timers with no pension savings?

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/over-82pc-of-retirees-back-to-work-amid-high-inflation-4193784
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on April 20, 2023, 07:27:44 PM
Seems effects of Maandamano are instant.
We are on 20th.

https://www.citizen.digital/news/govt-yet-to-release-ksh137b-in-salaries-list-of-most-affected-ministries-n318308
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on April 27, 2023, 07:47:02 AM
Look like some default will happen soon.
Prof Njunguna allude to it.
https://nation.africa/kenya/blogs-opinion/opinion/country-on-the-verge-of-collapse-4212648
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on May 11, 2023, 02:10:50 PM
Stagflation amidst crazy public debts. The extraction and shipping of production to pay debts as government expands will break the camel's back.

Quote
Data from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) shows the values referred to as agent cash in cash out eased by Sh5.65 billion to Sh1.813 trillion from Sh1.818 trillion in March last year.

This marks the first decline in the first quarter since the banking sector regulator began recording the transactions in 2009.


https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/markets/market-news/mobile-money-agents-post-first-drop-in-quarterly-cash--4230002
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on May 15, 2023, 02:04:35 PM
Nothing to show on the Ndii's dollar deal.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/more-pain-at-the-pump-fuel-prices-hit-a-historic-high-4235032
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on May 17, 2023, 07:08:58 AM
Kwa ground and from Twitter, Facebook, Tiktok posts, the cost of living is becoming unbearable.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on May 17, 2023, 08:21:26 AM
Yes I have been in rural Kenya..its terrible
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on June 06, 2023, 01:03:48 PM
No respite yet.

Little concern by a government promising heaven.  Fumbling where it matters one year on, they have been unable to import grains.

https://nation.africa/kenya/business/you-will-pay-more-for-sugar-bread-rice-and-cooking-oil-in-june-cbk-survey-shows-4259478
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: RV Pundit on June 13, 2023, 11:27:21 AM
I agree with this assessment - Nairobi is becoming ghost town like you find in most rural towns - where number of operating shops are 1/4 of the built up shops
?s=20
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on June 30, 2023, 12:48:37 PM
Good to see focus on farmers. More investments into agricultural research. Such a shame all African countries are net importers of food probably except Egypt.



https://nation.africa/kenya/news/wheat-farmers-seek-incentives-to-boost-yields--4288216
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Kadudu on June 30, 2023, 04:25:40 PM
Egypt is the biggest worldwide importer of wheat from Russia and Ukraine.

Good to see focus on farmers. More investments into agricultural research. Such a shame all African countries are net importers of food probably except Egypt.



https://nation.africa/kenya/news/wheat-farmers-seek-incentives-to-boost-yields--4288216
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on June 30, 2023, 08:20:10 PM
My bad, I for moments been carried away by the figures which keep being thrown around on marvels of Egyptian agriculture kumbe it is all figures.

Seems the military keeps fudging the figures, but can't when it goes down to bread.


Egypt is the biggest worldwide importer of wheat from Russia and Ukraine.

Good to see focus on farmers. More investments into agricultural research. Such a shame all African countries are net importers of food probably except Egypt.



https://nation.africa/kenya/news/wheat-farmers-seek-incentives-to-boost-yields--4288216
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on July 14, 2023, 02:30:27 PM
The demos show that urban poor across the country wamefika mwisho. For the first time Kambas in slums are violent and fighting police. We are crossing the rubicon.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on August 19, 2023, 12:50:18 PM
Njaanuary to June was hell.


https://nation.africa/kenya/business/cost-of-living-consumption-of-sugar-milk-drops-by-huge-margin-4340130
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on September 26, 2023, 03:56:28 PM
I had thought we were about to start turning the corner by August. Seems it is darker days, months and years ahead.

Unga still at 150-250. Fuel is crazy.

The budget largesse by politicians is incitement to hungry masses.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Georgesoros on October 02, 2023, 04:11:51 AM
I had thought we were about to start turning the corner by August. Seems it is darker days, months and years ahead.

Unga still at 150-250. Fuel is crazy.

The budget largesse by politicians is incitement to hungry masses.


Budget was based on theory rather than facts. That's y the economy is doing badly.
Also eliminating an opposition was a big mistake. Govt without opposition does anything and everything wrong.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on October 04, 2023, 04:13:32 PM
The inflation highlights for September are crazy.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: KenyanPlato on October 11, 2023, 07:57:55 PM
The inflation highlights for September are crazy.

This is nuts..I saw the price of Towel double. I had bought a towel at 300 shs in March and in August I paid 650 shs. I liked going to naivas and Carrefour to watch how customers were having to make budget decisions. Most shopping baskets only had the necessities.

Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: KenyanPlato on October 18, 2023, 05:17:27 PM
World Bank says the obvious
Wakora wawili
?t=mOQOgVTQFiMbCOYJE3Nz9A&s=19
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Kadudu on October 18, 2023, 05:27:09 PM
World Bank says the obvious
Wakora wawili
?t=mOQOgVTQFiMbCOYJE3Nz9A&s=19

One does not need to be an economist to come to this conclusion.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on November 26, 2023, 02:53:09 PM
The debate on price of unga persists. Very good it is taking time to discuss cost of living issues even at the null and void NADCO.
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on November 27, 2023, 11:23:05 AM
Banks being reminded they are Kenyan too. Seems tied to pending bills.
Quote

https://nation.africa/kenya/business/banks-in-rare-profit-drop-as-loan-defaults-hit-sh611bn-4445900
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on December 11, 2023, 01:06:08 PM
The trickle down effect of pending bills, now delayed salaries, no sacco deposits, no statutory remittances.

Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on December 14, 2023, 02:09:54 PM
Tenderpreneurs feeling the squeeze.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/kenyans-cut-vehicle-imports-by-sh22bn-on-taxes--4463714
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: Kadudu on December 14, 2023, 04:07:04 PM
Those re car importers. Tenderpreneurs are another group of people.

Tenderpreneurs feeling the squeeze.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/kenyans-cut-vehicle-imports-by-sh22bn-on-taxes--4463714
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: patel on December 15, 2023, 12:31:19 AM
2024 will be the make or break year. Half of 2024 economic year and first half of 2025.  I don't see how kenya is  going to dodge Default bullet.  Time to do more simulation. Ni kubaya
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on December 16, 2023, 02:25:08 PM
They are tied in the hip.

Those re car importers. Tenderpreneurs are another group of people.

Tenderpreneurs feeling the squeeze.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/kenyans-cut-vehicle-imports-by-sh22bn-on-taxes--4463714
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: KenyanPlato on January 11, 2024, 05:11:26 PM
Govt has not been able to pay its county employees since October. The cdf funds have not been disbursed yet. The pending bills amount to shs 600 billion. A debt default is the only solution. Reset the economic system and borrow locally till the economy is able to generate enough revenue
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: patel on January 11, 2024, 05:30:57 PM
I pity those who thought it was best to do business with counties and government. Those pending bills is borrowed money from banks. Kenya banks should be subjected to stress test.
Govt has not been able to pay its county employees since October. The cdf funds have not been disbursed yet. The pending bills amount to shs 600 billion. A debt default is the only solution. Reset the economic system and borrow locally till the economy is able to generate enough revenue
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on January 17, 2024, 01:01:11 PM
The governors are getting their monies, reason why they no longer hold press conferences lamenting of delays. Most I can see them launching this or that program. Many more are just smarting thievery.

CDF money has been disbursed just that the thugs do not want to embrace Ndindi Nyoro's working formula as they won't be able to steal.

On pending bills, it is epic thuggery, those supplying today are getting paid but some of those who supplied in 2013 are still crying if not on HBP.


I pity those who thought it was best to do business with counties and government. Those pending bills is borrowed money from banks. Kenya banks should be subjected to stress test.
Govt has not been able to pay its county employees since October. The cdf funds have not been disbursed yet. The pending bills amount to shs 600 billion. A debt default is the only solution. Reset the economic system and borrow locally till the economy is able to generate enough revenue
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on February 12, 2024, 01:49:42 PM
The reset continues. Lagged effects of Covid era restriction madness plus the crazy electricity prices.

Quote
A disclosure by the National Treasury showed that loan defaults rose by 27.4 percent from Sh487.7 billion to Sh621.3 billion, marking the largest rise in a single year since CBK started making the data public.

The Treasury said manufacturing and trading sectors accounted for about Sh248.52 billion or 40 percent of the Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) at the end of December, pointing to struggles among businesses and an elevated fear of layoffs and slowdowns in new jobs.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/corporate/companies/record-sh621bn-loan-defaults-push-banks-into-rare-profit-fall--4521758
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on February 12, 2024, 01:58:35 PM
Even tenderpreneurs cannot keep pace with the dollar.
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/corporate/companies/second-hand-cars-price-shocker-as-imports-drop-by-sh26bn--4521986
Title: Re: A economic avalanche is coming
Post by: gout on March 28, 2024, 03:42:31 PM
Things looking good.
Unga below 130 mark where the dollar is headed.

Sugar price easing off. We are likely to get to 100-125 per kilo.

Waiting to see how the madness with fake fertilizer will be dealt with.