He just ruined Chirstie for life. He told him Pack and go home you punk. I will vote for Trump just because he is a man with big balls. He is arrogant pig but I think he has earned his stripes as a no nonsense guy. Is Trump a bigot? I do not think so. I think he is a demagogue that will look for publicity no matter how vile it is. Trump Show Apprentice treated Africans and Black candidates very well and fairly. He is married to an immigrant and does not seem to be overly concerned with race like other Americans are. Hillary has no chance against this guy
Among the current crop of candidates for president of the United States, who exhibits leadership and who doesn’t?
Leadership isn’t just the ability to attract followers. Otherwise some of the worst tyrants in history would be considered great leaders. They weren’t leaders; they were demagogues. There’s a difference.
A leader brings out the best in his followers. A demagogue brings out the worst.
Leaders inspire tolerance. Demagogues incite hate.
Leaders empower the powerless; they give them voice and respect. Demagogues scapegoat the powerless; they use scapegoating as a means to fortify their power.
Leaders calm peoples’ irrational fears. Demagogues exploit them.
Let's look at this realistically. Black folks aren't hoodwinked by Trump's BS, so they will deliver for Hillary close to Obama numbers. With Trump's anti-immigrant rhetoric, Hispanics despise Trump. Mitt Romney's 27% is likely to go below 20% for Trump. America's continual demographic changes mean that Trump will need 2/3 of the White vote to win. A very tall order, if I may say so. Donald Trump is just an empty, noisy suit who will go down in history as the man who lost to America's first female president.
Something happened to Tavis Smiley from the moment Obama declared his candidacy for the White House. He has an inexplicable visceral loathing for Obama that clouds his judgment. It has been downhill ever since for him as far as being in touch with the African American pulse.Let's look at this realistically. Black folks aren't hoodwinked by Trump's BS, so they will deliver for Hillary close to Obama numbers. With Trump's anti-immigrant rhetoric, Hispanics despise Trump. Mitt Romney's 27% is likely to go below 20% for Trump. America's continual demographic changes mean that Trump will need 2/3 of the White vote to win. A very tall order, if I may say so. Donald Trump is just an empty, noisy suit who will go down in history as the man who lost to America's first female president.
www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/03/01/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-black-voters-primary-elections-2016-column/81150932/
Something happened to Tavis Smiley from the moment Obama declared his candidacy for the White House. He has an inexplicable visceral loathing for Obama that clouds his judgment. It has been downhill ever since for him as far as being in touch with the African American pulse.Let's look at this realistically. Black folks aren't hoodwinked by Trump's BS, so they will deliver for Hillary close to Obama numbers. With Trump's anti-immigrant rhetoric, Hispanics despise Trump. Mitt Romney's 27% is likely to go below 20% for Trump. America's continual demographic changes mean that Trump will need 2/3 of the White vote to win. A very tall order, if I may say so. Donald Trump is just an empty, noisy suit who will go down in history as the man who lost to America's first female president.
www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/03/01/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-black-voters-primary-elections-2016-column/81150932/
Something happened to Tavis Smiley from the moment Obama declared his candidacy for the White House. He has an inexplicable visceral loathing for Obama that clouds his judgment. It has been downhill ever since for him as far as being in touch with the African American pulse.Let's look at this realistically. Black folks aren't hoodwinked by Trump's BS, so they will deliver for Hillary close to Obama numbers. With Trump's anti-immigrant rhetoric, Hispanics despise Trump. Mitt Romney's 27% is likely to go below 20% for Trump. America's continual demographic changes mean that Trump will need 2/3 of the White vote to win. A very tall order, if I may say so. Donald Trump is just an empty, noisy suit who will go down in history as the man who lost to America's first female president.
www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/03/01/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-black-voters-primary-elections-2016-column/81150932/
In general he will win because white America is tired of liberalism.Expect a significant economic slowdown if Trump wins. USA will be boycotted and Asia will take over. Debt will skyrocket to $40T in 5yrs. Economic gaps will widen significantly.
Expect significant changes if Hillary wins. RIght wilng will kick its propaganda a notch whining about everything.In general he will win because white America is tired of liberalism.Expect a significant economic slowdown if Trump wins. USA will be boycotted and Asia will take over. Debt will skyrocket to $40T in 5yrs. Economic gaps will widen significantly.
I worry more about his impulsiveness. Four of years of Trump with the nuclear codes could prove disastrous.In general he will win because white America is tired of liberalism.Expect a significant economic slowdown if Trump wins. USA will be boycotted and Asia will take over. Debt will skyrocket to $40T in 5yrs. Economic gaps will widen significantly.
I'm rooting for Trump to win his party's nomination. That will makes things much easier for the other party.
I'm rooting for Trump to win his party's nomination. That will makes things much easier for the other party.
I'm rooting for Trump to win his party's nomination. That will makes things much easier for the other party.
You are mistaken, American are looking for a political revolution not status quo
I'm rooting for Trump to win his party's nomination. That will makes things much easier for the other party.
You are mistaken, American are looking for a political revolution not status quo
There is a revolution going on. In the Republican party. Joe The Plumber is waking up to the lie he has been fed for the last I don't know how many years since the Southern strategy. He now realizes that all these years he has been voting against his own interests in the belief that these are African Americans interests.I'm rooting for Trump to win his party's nomination. That will makes things much easier for the other party.
You are mistaken, American are looking for a political revolution not status quo
They could carry the South and lose the general on a consistent basis.
Trump will run away with this racist part of the party. The Republican establishment will either have to form a new party or embrace Trump.
Trump is no idiot. I expect him to tone down once he wins the party ticket and win against Hillary.
Exactly. He has eviscerated his chances in a general for a primary victory.Trump is no idiot. I expect him to tone down once he wins the party ticket and win against Hillary.
If Trump tones down, he loses his core supporters.
total showdown between liberals and nationalists. This is going to get ugly in South and Mid-west. It total chaos. Liberals now are giving GOP establishment more reasons for a brokered convention. At this point Republicans party leaders may decide they may as well lose GE but hold on to the party. I except trump to run as an independent because there is no way he is going to be allowed to be candidate. trump is "winning" with 35% of republican delegates. It is a Moi minority win in the 1990s
Trump after he wins Ohio and Florida will wrap up the Rethug ticket and from there he'll start moderating as he takes on Hillary. Just like rethug cannot figure out how to stop trump (whatever he does or says), I think democrats will also fail to handle trump.
This election is Donald Trump to lose. He is Obama anti-dote. Folks are tired of Obama measured no drama presidency. They want to have someone a little more carefree. In Trump they see one.
While racists make up a good chunk of the right wing of the Republican party, his views are not appealing or even tolerated among independents, let alone some parts of his own party. He cannot change tact and suddenly appeal to them, having gone off the cliff in the primary. Wavering is a losing trait in US politics.Trump after he wins Ohio and Florida will wrap up the Rethug ticket and from there he'll start moderating as he takes on Hillary. Just like rethug cannot figure out how to stop trump (whatever he does or says), I think democrats will also fail to handle trump.
This election is Donald Trump to lose. He is Obama anti-dote. Folks are tired of Obama measured no drama presidency. They want to have someone a little more carefree. In Trump they see one.
Trump is going nowhere. Even Trump probably knows that; but he is a businessman, and this little circus will make the "Trump" name/brand even more marketable.
The idea that "democrats will also fail to handle trump" is way off. If you look at the Electoral College votes in Obama's 1st victory and his 2nd, you will see that Romney got all the possible redneck votes (South and tinker-toy parts of the Mid-West) but still lost. Those votes make up the best-case scenario for Trump. Except that he is probably worse off than Romney: like Goldwater, even if he wins party's nomination, ultimately he splits his own party in a disastrous way.
This brings us to your earlier comment that once he is nominated, he will shape up ... Won't work. Unlike what happens our Great Country, in the USA the trash that politicians talk is never forgotten. For Trump to win, even if he gets all the redneck votes---and that's not a certainty, given the conflicts in his own party---he would have to win Florida. TV ads that regurgitate his views on "south of the border" (and suchlike) pretty much ensures that won't happen. To keep his rabid supporters he will not be able to back away from his nasty bits, and that's going to make it even easier to hit him on that basis.
And here's another aspect: In terms of grassroots organization of get-them-to-register/get-them-out-to-vote, I can't think of a US president/"aspiring-president" who's done better than Obama. (His "cousin" in Kenya could learn something there.) That is interesting for two reasons:
* Contrary to what one would expect as the norm, Obama maintained his "organization" from the 1st campaign to the next. What is even more unusual is that he has still kept it an plans to do "great" things with it after he leaves office. (The Washington Post, a few months ago, had a lengthy and very interesting article on this.)
* At some point, Obama will bring all his stuff in support of the Democratic nominee, and it's not chicken-shit. (Not surprisingly, one of the debates between Clinton and Sanders boiled down to who would be truer to Obama's legacy .... who loved Obama the most.)
They could carry the South and lose the general on a consistent basis.
Last elections: Romney took all of the South except Florida, but lost. Had he won in Florida, he would have beaten Obama. Can Trump win in any of the states that Obama took? Doubtful. Can he win in Florida? The demographics suggest not, especially given some of his more colourful comments.
What does his own party think of his chances? This week the politicians have started to take hard swings at him, and the money people have started pouring their stuff into Super PACs funding attack ads against him. What do those people see?QuoteTrump will run away with this racist part of the party. The Republican establishment will either have to form a new party or embrace Trump.
The current party "spit" and (in a small number of ways) the candidate bring to mind Barry Goldwater and the Republican party of his day. Goldwater won the nomination, but did not get very far after that. It might be argued that the South is less Democratic these days, but then there's the first point above (spread of electoral-college votes).
Trump's success so far should be judged in light of the fact that so far the battle is limited to the party faithful.
Trump after he wins Ohio and Florida will wrap up the Rethug ticket and from there he'll start moderating as he takes on Hillary. Just like rethug cannot figure out how to stop trump (whatever he does or says), I think democrats will also fail to handle trump.
This election is Donald Trump to lose. He is Obama anti-dote. Folks are tired of Obama measured no drama presidency. They want to have someone a little more carefree. In Trump they see one.total showdown between liberals and nationalists. This is going to get ugly in South and Mid-west. It total chaos. Liberals now are giving GOP establishment more reasons for a brokered convention. At this point Republicans party leaders may decide they may as well lose GE but hold on to the party. I except trump to run as an independent because there is no way he is going to be allowed to be candidate. trump is "winning" with 35% of republican delegates. It is a Moi minority win in the 1990s
Obama "organisation" comes down to his momentum at the right time; he was able to energize his voters; All these assumptions have been tested in primaries and trump 'make america great again' smashes them again and again.It down to who can energize folks. In states where independents and non-registered rethugs have been allowed to vote; trump wins; and he is getting some record turn out while spending very little.Obama had a formidable ground game. Something that I can't say for Trump but could say for Hillary. Sure he can turn out hordes of rednecks and Romney Blue dog dems to carry states in a Republican Primary. But even in those, he is just getting 35% and polarizing a good chunk of the rest.
I believe trump will energize a lot of folks who naturally won't be interested in politics and win. The same way Obama energized students and the likes to carry him to POTUS.
Hillary just don't excite anyone. Sanders could but his wish-washy nature just mean he can't sustain it. The rednecks now have a good reason to really come out and vote.
Say anything but USA is still a white country...with more than 70% of the vote. Trump just need to excite part of that 70% to come out and vote.
Obama had a formidable ground game. Something that I can't say for Trump but could say for Hillary. Sure he can turn out hordes of rednecks and Romney Blue dog dems to carry states in a Republican Primary. But even in those, he is just getting 35% and polarizing a good chunk of the rest.
The real problem though is the electoral college math doesn't add up for him. He won't get Obama supporters and more. High turnouts in safe states are virtually meaningless. Demographic shifts are actually turning formerly safe red states into swing states. And it's not just because of minorities but also because an influx of whites from the North.
Any Republican, let alone Trump, has an uphill task winning enough swing states. Trump is the only Republican thus far who loses in a matchup with either Democrat.
What is this with 35%? It is not like Obama won with 70% of democratic party. It was dog fight all the way. The same is true for republican party with many strong candidates. Once republican party come over and endorse trump; then trump get "100%" of the rethugs. And that will happen on Tuesday night after he carries Ohio and Florida.35% is the proportion of his support in the Republican party, while alienating the rest, to this point. The Republican party has been in decline since 2000, maybe earlier. W won his first term riding on the back of Ralph Nader as spoiler in Florida. Beating Kerry was because he was a war President.
We know Hillary will win in Democratic party but going by how "badly" she is struggling against an independent socialist like Sanders; how do you expect her to compete against Donald Trump?
What worked for Obama will not work for everyone. Trump has not needed any ground game or tonnes of money. He has simply used his big mouth, his jet, a few big rallies and twitter. Now when the party machinery comes into play, then trump becomes even more deadly.
Many folks have underestimated Trump but look where he is is now. He was suppose to be dead so many times; but he is still kicking.
Once Trump locks the party ticket; expect him to make smart choice with regard to his VP and guys around him; that will appease the party and moderate his message.Obama had a formidable ground game. Something that I can't say for Trump but could say for Hillary. Sure he can turn out hordes of rednecks and Romney Blue dog dems to carry states in a Republican Primary. But even in those, he is just getting 35% and polarizing a good chunk of the rest.
The real problem though is the electoral college math doesn't add up for him. He won't get Obama supporters and more. High turnouts in safe states are virtually meaningless. Demographic shifts are actually turning formerly safe red states into swing states. And it's not just because of minorities but also because an influx of whites from the North.
Any Republican, let alone Trump, has an uphill task winning enough swing states. Trump is the only Republican thus far who loses in a matchup with either Democrat.
trump before Chicago was formidable but now his armor has been pierced by liberal activists. His supporters played into the hands of liberal activists and now Donald credibility is shot. So Hillary wins because she will hold onto NJ, PA, NY which would have been swing states if Donald did not Fuck up last week. GOP is done. Working class Americans are idiots they should have worked to broaden their base but due to racism they shrunk it. Trump economic message would have been sellable to even workingclass African Americans especially males.In Chicago, he encountered First Amendment. Free speech does not include a right to a cooperative audience. It was akin to Raila going into Gatundu to insult kamwana.
So not Hillary is president elect unless she develops health complications between now and November
Trump wins everywhere except Ohio. Rubio drops out. Now it Trump, Ted and Kasich. Key stats to watch is turn out of previously disinterested working class America who are now trooping back to voting booths after finding a candidate they can identify it. And that is trump.
Trump has abused Latinos and Blacks cannot stand him. How do you win a presidential election without these groups?
Blacks are 10% and Latino maybe 20%..leaving White America at 70%. And that is group that hasn't been voting as much...and if trump wins non-liberal whites..he wins.What is the hypothetical path to a victory for Trump? Which states will vote red?
Facts is Trump is now winning with 40-45% in primaries...clearly somebody is voting for Trump...a heck lots of republicans.Trump has abused Latinos and Blacks cannot stand him. How do you win a presidential election without these groups?
Blacks are 10% and Latino maybe 20%..leaving White America at 70%. And that is group that hasn't been voting as much...and if trump wins non-liberal whites..he wins.
2. Listen To Minorities
Much of the report is about encouraging Republicans to listen not just to Republican minorities, but to reach out to black, Hispanic, and Asian American voters in their own communities. The reason: arithmetic.
"By the year 2050 we'll be a majority-minority country and in both 2008 and 2012 President Obama won a combined 80 percent of the votes of all minority groups," RNC chair Reince Priebus said in a press conference debuting the report. "The RNC cannot and will not write off any demographic or community or region of this country."
What is the hypothetical path to a victory for Trump? Which states will vote red?
First, not all those whites would vote for Trump. Second, one should look at the distribution of the Electoral College votes. Third, and most significant, you seem to ignore what the Republican Party itself thinks on the matter of minorities. After the last elections, the party engaged in quite a bit of handwringing and then carried out a "post-mortem" on their miserable performance. You will find the report here:
http://goproject.gop.com/rnc_growth_opportunity_book_2013.pdf
What the report stresses, right from the git-go, is the significance of minority groups. Of those groups, Hispanics come first, as they are considered more "Republican-malleable" than blacks. That group is already lost: (i) all the Democrats have to do is replay audios of Trump's comments on alleged rapists, murderers, and other criminals from the south, and (ii) the GOP's efforts at stymying Obama on immigration.
If you do not have the time to read all of that, here is a quick "summary":
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/6-big-takeaways-from-the-rnc-s-incredible-2012-autopsy
Note Point #2:Quote2. Listen To Minorities
Much of the report is about encouraging Republicans to listen not just to Republican minorities, but to reach out to black, Hispanic, and Asian American voters in their own communities. The reason: arithmetic.
"By the year 2050 we'll be a majority-minority country and in both 2008 and 2012 President Obama won a combined 80 percent of the votes of all minority groups," RNC chair Reince Priebus said in a press conference debuting the report. "The RNC cannot and will not write off any demographic or community or region of this country."
Terminator's comment on the old "Southern strategy" was spot on: these days, there simply aren't enough rednecks in the right places (Electoral College votes) for business as usual for that party.
You guys talk as if all over sudden a republican can never win POTUS. Forgetting Obama just replaced George Dubya Bush who had an even more dubious record. Fact is republican party won the mid term and control the congress & I think even the senate. That is not a party in decline. It a party that control most of the US except in big cities where liberals, blacks and latinos dominate. Without caring to elaborate..Trump will carry most rural white dominated states....and will be just need to win both Florida and Ohio...to nick POTUS.That's not true. I am just going by the polls. On an earlier post, I actually said Hillary loses to all Republican candidates except the Donald. Ted Cruz, Rubio, Kasich all beat Clinton in a general; at least in a popular vote terms.
All the stars are aligning for Trump. In this election where folks are anti-politicians and anti-establishment, trump as the only outsider, is become more popular the more rethugs politicians cast aspersion on him. Also after liberal democract in Obama, US seem ready for another George Dubya Bush.
The more republican party top honchos refuses to endorse trump, the more popular he is becoming.
Bottomline: Blacks are overrated minority. Latinos have a long way to go. American remain a white country...and all trump need is to get the red necks interested in voting again.What is the hypothetical path to a victory for Trump? Which states will vote red?
If we went by the Official Rethugs line, Jeb Bush with his latino wife, would already have secured nomination.
Hillary is going to ridicolous length to appeal to black votes and she seem to have lost white votes to Sanders..Not a good sign for Hillary.
If we went by the Official Rethugs line
Not really? Considering his views, do you really see Sanders voters turning to vote for Trump? The kind of people Sanders attracts don't just dislike Trump; they absolutely loathe his type.
That's not true. I am just going by the polls. On an earlier post, I actually said Hillary loses to all Republican candidates except the Donald. Ted Cruz, Rubio, Kasich all beat Clinton in a general; at least in a popular vote terms.
Without going into details, the mid-term demographic has always favored Republicans. It doesn't always translate to the general election.
Every state in the US is white dominated. The states you say he will win are red states. Republicans win red states. Sarah Palin brought out hordes of the same Trump supporters to stop Obama from shuckin' and jivin' his way to White House. And they carried those states.
It's true that most whites vote Republican. Romney got something like 59% of the white vote nationally. I am not sure about the exact figure but that proportion goes down in Blue states. The South has a larger proportion of blacks; the Republicans therefore have to win a lot more than 59% of the white vote in those states to carry them. Their proportion of the white vote in blue states doesn't help them in a general(they can win congressional seats though). Trump has to win over enough undecided whites to carry some swing states. One can even give him Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Colorado off the bat and he'd still lose.
But that is really splitting hairs. The electoral college map is where you want to focus. There are all sorts of reasons for it, but some states are reliably blue, others are red and some are purple trending to blue. The margin for error for a Republican in 2016 is thinner than it was in 2000 when Bush attracted more than just angry white voters and had some help from Ralph Nader.
In any case not a single poll has Trump winning the general election against either democrat. It might be too early, but that has been a pretty steady outcome.
Dont waste time with report analysising stuff that cannot be replicated. every election is unique in it's own way. No wonder rethugs are confused. They are running this election using last election template.
It's not a matter of running an election using the last election's template or trying to replicate anything. It's an analysis of where the votes are: the demographic shifts simply don't favour Trump. If you wish to make a convincing argument for how he could win, you should try one in terms of Electoral-College votes; that is what I don't see in any of your statements.
We will get there in due course. Bush snr. Reagan and all those republicans who won....clearly didn't need Ralph Nader dude. For now Trump is busy with primaries and once we get to elections...the choice will be clear...business as usual hillary versus Donald Trump.You should read What's the matter with Kansas?. In there you will find the Trumpoid. There is a misleading narrative that they have just walked out of the woodwork because of Trump. They have been there all along, emphatically voting against their interests, in the belief that they are denying black people welfare and government programs.
That's not true. I am just going by the polls. On an earlier post, I actually said Hillary loses to all Republican candidates except the Donald. Ted Cruz, Rubio, Kasich all beat Clinton in a general; at least in a popular vote terms.
Without going into details, the mid-term demographic has always favored Republicans. It doesn't always translate to the general election.
Every state in the US is white dominated. The states you say he will win are red states. Republicans win red states. Sarah Palin brought out hordes of the same Trump supporters to stop Obama from shuckin' and jivin' his way to White House. And they carried those states.
It's true that most whites vote Republican. Romney got something like 59% of the white vote nationally. I am not sure about the exact figure but that proportion goes down in Blue states. The South has a larger proportion of blacks; the Republicans therefore have to win a lot more than 59% of the white vote in those states to carry them. Their proportion of the white vote in blue states doesn't help them in a general(they can win congressional seats though). Trump has to win over enough undecided whites to carry some swing states. One can even give him Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Colorado off the bat and he'd still lose.
But that is really splitting hairs. The electoral college map is where you want to focus. There are all sorts of reasons for it, but some states are reliably blue, others are red and some are purple trending to blue. The margin for error for a Republican in 2016 is thinner than it was in 2000 when Bush attracted more than just angry white voters and had some help from Ralph Nader.
In any case not a single poll has Trump winning the general election against either democrat. It might be too early, but that has been a pretty steady outcome.
Someone think Donald Trump just need to win the Rust belt 64 delegates states and he is in white house. And those states are lily white.Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/how-donald-trump-becomes-president_us_56cb5429e4b0928f5a6c9ead
This doesn't mean that white people in these states will all flock to Trump. Many of them are die-hard Democrats and appalled by his bigoted campaign.
You should read What's the matter with Kansas?. In there you will find the Trumpoid. There is a misleading narrative that they have just walked out of the woodwork because of Trump. They have been there all along, emphatically voting against their interests, in the belief that they are denying black people welfare and government programs.
Trump, with his birther credentials, has merely woken them up from this stupidity and now they don't need the Republican establishment or so they think. But who else will join them? That is Trump's dilemma.
An Open Letter to Donald Trump:
Mr. Trump,
I try my hardest not to be political. I’ve refused to interview several of your fellow candidates. I didn’t want to risk any personal goodwill by appearing to take sides in a contentious election. I thought: ‘Maybe the timing is not right.’ But I realize now that there is no correct time to oppose violence and prejudice. The time is always now. Because along with millions of Americans, I’ve come to realize that opposing you is no longer a political decision. It is a moral one.
I’ve watched you retweet racist images. I’ve watched you retweet racist lies. I’ve watched you take 48 hours to disavow white supremacy. I’ve watched you joyfully encourage violence, and promise to ‘pay the legal fees’ of those who commit violence on your behalf. I’ve watched you advocate the use of torture and the murder of terrorists’ families. I’ve watched you gleefully tell stories of executing Muslims with bullets dipped in pig blood. I’ve watched you compare refugees to ‘snakes,’ and claim that ‘Islam hates us.’
I am a journalist, Mr. Trump. And over the last two years I have conducted extensive interviews with hundreds of Muslims, chosen at random, on the streets of Iran, Iraq, and Pakistan. I’ve also interviewed hundreds of Syrian and Iraqi refugees across seven different countries. And I can confirm— the hateful one is you.
Those of us who have been paying attention will not allow you to rebrand yourself. You are not a ‘unifier.’ You are not ‘presidential.’ You are not a ‘victim’ of the very anger that you’ve joyfully enflamed for months. You are a man who has encouraged prejudice and violence in the pursuit of personal power. And though your words will no doubt change over the next few months, you will always remain who you are.
Sincerely,
Brandon Stanton
They been there alright, but never this energized. Now they've got their own in Trump. And they are turning in record numbers including democracts and independent leaning redneck for The Donald Tramp.Yes, there are dynamics by which Trump, based on white votes, can win. US politics are interesting with many possibilities and forces in play. But I still think the angry white working class approach is far-fetched.
If you look at record turn out of these guys in primaries and in rallies, you should be very worried, that the real majority, the america white non-college graduate working class are intend on voting trump.
Bottomline; every election has it's dynamic. If somebody said Obama would win in 08, he would have been laughed off. Now it's Trump time.
It obvious Trump has a clear path to victory, carry all the white majority states in the south, mid-west, upper and rust belt...and it going to be easy considering Hillary is struggling with same demographisc..and all tramp need is record turn out of white working class folks and few sanders democrats & independents...who do not trust Hillary.You should read What's the matter with Kansas?. In there you will find the Trumpoid. There is a misleading narrative that they have just walked out of the woodwork because of Trump. They have been there all along, emphatically voting against their interests, in the belief that they are denying black people welfare and government programs.
Trump, with his birther credentials, has merely woken them up from this stupidity and now they don't need the Republican establishment or so they think. But who else will join them? That is Trump's dilemma.
Clinton and Trump are interesting in the sense that they are the two most polarizing candidates in this campaign. Despite Trump's own negative perceptions, she only beats him by narrow margins in the polls.
Even those sympathetic to a female President, balk as soon as they encounter Hillary in person. She has a caustic personality. She is unpleasant to be around especially when she is talking. She is not above playing the dirty games such as the race card she played against Obama in 2008. Not to mention she is a foreign policy hawk on a scale that would make Dick Cheney blush.
Clinton represents the establishment's last tenuous hold on the status quo. 2016 is one of the elections in which a third or fourth candidate can cause a real upheaval. Leading to a situation where no candidate gets 270.
I have no personal preference between her and Trump. Still her path to the White House is easier than Trump's, even if she represents his best chance of winning it all.
With today's Brussels attacks, possibility of Donald being the president is significantly raised.
Bush was never racist nor conservative. Bush was a screwball like uhuru that got conned by oligarchs led by Cheney. like his dad he should have been one term mistake but moral depravity during Clinton time and foreign policy fuckups by Clinton gave gop an upperhand
Yeah. Bush like Ted Cruz is actually dumb and stupid with really insane ideas that they believe in. Trump I think is bright guy who understands that he is just acting up for the " I love the poorly educated" white middle class to take him to POTUS. Folks who watched Trump's The Apprentice knows he is very smart and decisive dude.Bush was never racist nor conservative. Bush was a screwball like uhuru that got conned by oligarchs led by Cheney. like his dad he should have been one term mistake but moral depravity during Clinton time and foreign policy fuckups by Clinton gave gop an upperhand
This is Trumps' election to lose given the recent wins by Sanders over Clinton
Not only those who watched, most Kenyans, and by extension African would have died to appear in that show. Trump has just stayed to his element which aptly captures reality on the ground just like our Moses Kurias and Aladwas. They are rich guys who ain't afraid that tribe, race, gender and political correctness nonsense will make them go hungry, lose business and such. I like such guys, and Americans seem to be decided about Trump.
We, the grassroots activists of the National Black Republican Association, are pleased to announce our endorsement of Donald J. Trump for President of the United States of America.
As citizens who happen to be black, we support Mr. Trump because he shares our values. We, like Mr. Trump, are fiscally conservative, steadfastly pro-life and believers in a small government that fosters freedom for individuals and businesses, so they can grow and become prosperous.
We are deeply concerned about illegal immigration, a major cause of high black unemployment, especially among black youth.
Black Americans across America are beginning to wake up and see clearly the reality of what is happening in black neighborhoods. Democrats have run black communities for the past 60 years and the socialist policies of the Democrats have turned those communities into economic and social wastelands, witness Detroit, Baltimore and South Chicago.
We believe that Mr. Trump has demonstrated that he can push back against the mainstream media, end political correctness and free black communities from the destructive grip of socialist Democrats.
We urge our fellow black Americans to seize control over their own destiny and leverage their vote the way other groups do. It is way past time black Americans stop having their vote taken for granted by Democrats, hold politicians accountable for the content of their policies and not vote merely based on the label of their party.
Hillary is scary. She is Dick Cheney in drag. America needs a leader to normalize its profile in international affairs. It's too much of a rogue state.
Interesting. I don't like Hillary and Ted Cruz. Don't mind Trump either. But Sanders is probably the only guy who can fix some issues America has.Hillary is scary. She is Dick Cheney in drag. America needs a leader to normalize its profile in international affairs. It's too much of a rogue state.
You're right Sanders seems to get the medical and college crazy costs, political finance reforms, plus ending prison enterprise. Sadly his ideas like free universal education have been called pie-in-the-sky with dismal chance in GOP Congress.She is a neocon. Happy to commit the country to perpetual warfare at the service of the military industrial complex. Obama tried to dial it back, but it backfired, thanks to her push-back; Libya is her baby. There would have likely been boots on the ground in Syria under her watch. With the chaos in the ME she'll be like a child in a candy store. People will die.
Wall Street-sponsored Hillary... business as usual.
The good guys don't stand a chance. Bernie trails HRC by a whooping 700 delegates :(Interesting. I don't like Hillary and Ted Cruz. Don't mind Trump either. But Sanders is probably the only guy who can fix some issues America has.Hillary is scary. She is Dick Cheney in drag. America needs a leader to normalize its profile in international affairs. It's too much of a rogue state.
You're right Sanders seems to get the medical and college crazy costs, political finance reforms, plus ending prison enterprise. Sadly his ideas like free universal education have been called pie-in-the-sky with dismal chance in GOP Congress.She is a neocon. Happy to commit the country to perpetual warfare at the service of the military industrial complex. Obama tried to dial it back, but it backfired, thanks to her push-back; Libya is her baby. There would have likely been boots on the ground in Syria under her watch. With the chaos in the ME she'll be like a child in a candy store. People will die.
Wall Street-sponsored Hillary... business as usual.
The good guys don't stand a chance. Bernie trails HRC by a whooping 700 delegates :(Interesting. I don't like Hillary and Ted Cruz. Don't mind Trump either. But Sanders is probably the only guy who can fix some issues America has.Hillary is scary. She is Dick Cheney in drag. America needs a leader to normalize its profile in international affairs. It's too much of a rogue state.
She will say anything to get elected. In 2008, she paints Obama as a gun-hating liberal, trying to win votes from rural white religious gun lovers; today she paints Sanders as a gun-loving hawk; even trying to suggest that Vermont under Bernie's representation is responsible for gun-violence in New York.
Trumps wins big. He wins five states with really big machines.
This looks like Trump versus Clinton for the main.
It's not the headline, and it takes 219 words to get there, but a new Washington Post poll on the presidential race reveals that Republican Donald Trump leads Democrat Hillary Clinton among registered voters 46 percent to 44 percent.http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/begrudging-wapo-poll-trump-46-clinton-44/article/2591982
Hillary trails Trump in new Washington Post polls. She is terribly unlikeable. As bad as Trump is, people would rather see his face for four years than do the same for Hillary. If there was a year for a third party even fourth party candidate to
Clinton currently leads Trump by 4 points (47 percent to 43 percent) among registered voters; this margin is nearly unchanged from last week's results.http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-majority-americans-dislike-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-n578926
This week's poll probed how American voters feel about both Trump and Clinton. A majority of voters expressed negative feelings about both leading candidates. Traditionally a fair number of partisans on either side of the aisle express negative opinions about the other party's candidate, but the latest poll found that a majority of voters express negative feelings about both leading candidates.
Hillary trails Trump in new Washington Post polls. She is terribly unlikeable. As bad as Trump is, people would rather see his face for four years than do the same for Hillary. If there was a year for a third party even fourth party candidate to have a real shot, 2016 is it.QuoteIt's not the headline, and it takes 219 words to get there, but a new Washington Post poll on the presidential race reveals that Republican Donald Trump leads Democrat Hillary Clinton among registered voters 46 percent to 44 percent.http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/begrudging-wapo-poll-trump-46-clinton-44/article/2591982
Hillary trails Trump in new Washington Post polls. She is terribly unlikeable. As bad as Trump is, people would rather see his face for four years than do the same for Hillary. If there was a year for a third party even fourth party candidate to have a real shot, 2016 is it.QuoteIt's not the headline, and it takes 219 words to get there, but a new Washington Post poll on the presidential race reveals that Republican Donald Trump leads Democrat Hillary Clinton among registered voters 46 percent to 44 percent.http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/begrudging-wapo-poll-trump-46-clinton-44/article/2591982
Hillary is damaged goods, a flawed candidate of historic proportions. She is still the lesser of two evils. If the presidential election were held today, I will probably vote for her.
This election will be won on three or four points.
- Demographics
- Cultural variance
- Obama's popularity
- Donald Trump
On demographics, it's clear that the share of white voters in the general elections - presidential - has been declining by an average of three or four percent in every election cycle since the eighties. Put differently, there are not enough angry blue collar white guys to tip the scale for Trump. Meanwhile, minority voters, blacks, Hispanics, and Asians share of the voting population has been rising -- a boon for the Democrats.
As someone who's been voting at the generals since 1992, who vividly recalls the culture wars of the eighties and the nineties on feminism, affirmative action, abortion, and later on gay rights, etc, all I can tell Trump and the Republicans is that this country's culture is changing....fast. Today, when I talk to the twenty and thirty something year old young folks, the so-called millennials, it strikes me that many of those wedge issues are not as important to them.
Frankly and objectively speaking, Barack Obama will go down as one of the ten most significant presidents of this country. One might call me biased, but observing what I have whenever I travel to overseas, whenever asked I always remind folks of Obama's momentous achievements: the Iran Nuclear Deal; rapprochement with Cuba; ending the ill conceived war in Iraq; resuscitating the U.S economy in 2009 from imminent depression; solid employment growth over the past six years; fending off China in the South China Sea and in East Asia; standing up for our allies Japan and South Korea vis-a-vis North Korea.
So, Obama's high popularity is a plus for Hillary going forward in the campaign cycle, especially with minority voters and even with independents and some moderate Republicans.
Trump. The madman with money. Here's a guy who will get his comeuppance and a proper lesson on what really dirty politics and op research in politics means when he faces off with the Clintons.
Trump is sleazy but the Clintons can be even sleazier.
I see a George H. W Bush type shellacking of Dukakis 1988. President Clinton II.
The polls don't show a shellacking. This race is going down to wire. Obama brought in new votes..blacks, young students & minorities..and Trump is bringing back the disenfranchised white collar Americans. Clinton who couldn't even beat a socilaist Sanders till last minute is certainly far assured from beating Donald Trump who beat many republicans while essentially doing what he is doing. There are so many people who just don't like Hillary.
Hillary is trying to be nice to everyone. Trump has set his eyes on his niche and is not giving a damn about Latinos and Blacks. At end of the day..he knows whites are still 70% plus of the US of A...blacks and latinos maybe 10% each.
This election will be won on three or four points.
- Demographics
- Cultural variance
- Obama's popularity
- Donald Trump
On demographics, it's clear that the share of white voters in the general elections - presidential - has been declining by an average of three or four percent in every election cycle since the eighties. Put differently, there are not enough angry blue collar white guys to tip the scale for Trump. Meanwhile, minority voters, blacks, Hispanics, and Asians share of the voting population has been rising -- a boon for the Democrats.
As someone who's been voting at the generals since 1992, who vividly recalls the culture wars of the eighties and the nineties on feminism, affirmative action, abortion, and later on gay rights, etc, all I can tell Trump and the Republicans is that this country's culture is changing....fast. Today, when I talk to the twenty and thirty something year old young folks, the so-called millennials, it strikes me that many of those wedge issues are not as important to them.
Frankly and objectively speaking, Barack Obama will go down as one of the ten most significant presidents of this country. One might call me biased, but observing what I have whenever I travel to overseas, whenever asked I always remind folks of Obama's momentous achievements: the Iran Nuclear Deal; rapprochement with Cuba; ending the ill conceived war in Iraq; resuscitating the U.S economy in 2009 from imminent depression; solid employment growth over the past six years; fending off China in the South China Sea and in East Asia; standing up for our allies Japan and South Korea vis-a-vis North Korea.
So, Obama's high popularity is a plus for Hillary going forward in the campaign cycle, especially with minority voters and even with independents and some moderate Republicans.
Trump. The madman with money. Here's a guy who will get his comeuppance and a proper lesson on what really dirty politics and op research in politics means when he faces off with the Clintons.
Trump is sleazy but the Clintons can be even sleazier.
I see a George H. W Bush type shellacking of Dukakis 1988. President Clinton II.
I would be cautious when citing U.S. demographics. As I stated earlier, in each of our electiion cycles since the 1980s, the share of white voters has a percentage of total voters has been declining by three to four percent - today, I believe it's somewhere in the upper 60s.
Trump will not get the entire 68% of the white vote or whatever it is today. He'll get a majority of the male white vote I would surmise but not enough to make up for his glaring weaknesses among other demographics, including white women and white millennials.
Then remember that this is not Kenya where a sociopath with money can get himself elected president of Kenya despite having "allegedly" killed so many folks in the Rift Valley PEV of 2008.
As the Clintons get ready to take on and expose Trump - and I'm not particularly a fan of Hillary with her warmongering neocon worldview and her questionable integrity, FOIA issues and email controversy etc - many people will finally see Trump for who he really is: an intellectually shallow, mentally unbalanced, ill-prepared, corrupt, misogynistic man.
Trump is going nowhere after last weeks rant. He entangled himself and is unable to proceed. He is a ranting egomaniac.
Trump has said worse. Most people including the repulican who were fell one after the other make this mistake that trump is an idiot. Really?. How did such an idiot make billion of money. How did he turn 1m dollar he inherited into billions if he wasn't smart.I still think his appeal to the Republican right does not translate into the general. Is there racism? Yes. Will people be turned off by Trump for the same? Yep. His best chances, and they are terrible, lie in reaching disgruntled Bernie supporters; these voters will vote Hillary before Trump, just on the basis of his racism.
Trumps doesn't care about blacks and latinos. Just like he doesn't care about liberals. He has basically written them off. Trump just want to pander to white blue-collar/poor whites...the redneck. If they can be energized to vote they can turn the tables against Hillary. Hillary has a problem repeating Obama. Maybe woman will get excited?
Racism in America is real..and Trump didn't invent it..he is playing the race card.....while acting dumb. If Trump can get the racist white Americans out there to turn up and votes..like Obama got the blacks interested in voting...then POTUS Trump is going to become a reality come nov.Trump is going nowhere after last weeks rant. He entangled himself and is unable to proceed. He is a ranting egomaniac.
I still think his appeal to the Republican right does not translate into the general. Is there racism? Yes. Will people be turned off by Trump for the same? Yep. His best chances, and they are terrible, lie in reaching disgruntled Bernie supporters; these voters will vote Hillary before Trump, just on the basis of his racism.
Elizabeth Warren as Clinton's VP is an intriguing concept. Elizabeth Warren is a more likeable, and would represent the Bernie Sanders platform. Perhaps that should be the deal that gets Sanders fully behind the ticket.
The Clinton machine has also started working on Trump; he is going to need serious money to counter that; we'll see where he gets that given that RNC is in disarray.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/on-leadership/wp/2016/06/11/a-hillary-clinton-elizabeth-warren-pairing-would-be-profoundly-unusual-and-not-just-in-national-politics/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/on-leadership/wp/2016/06/11/a-hillary-clinton-elizabeth-warren-pairing-would-be-profoundly-unusual-and-not-just-in-national-politics/)
That would be insane. Two women. Money never worked in primary and I doubt it will work. Trump gets free media coz he makes controversial decision one after the other. With shooting in Orlando, Trump crazy idea to ban muslim is going to get traction.He is getting negative media. In the primary all he had to do was appeal to the racist Republican base. Most folks, like 90 something % that are turned on by racist campaigns were already domiciled in that party. That primary. Can he spread the hate? I doubt it. Obama won twice, not because people did not try.Elizabeth Warren as Clinton's VP is an intriguing concept. Elizabeth Warren is a more likeable, and would represent the Bernie Sanders platform. Perhaps that should be the deal that gets Sanders fully behind the ticket.
The Clinton machine has also started working on Trump; he is going to need serious money to counter that; we'll see where he gets that given that RNC is in disarray.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/on-leadership/wp/2016/06/11/a-hillary-clinton-elizabeth-warren-pairing-would-be-profoundly-unusual-and-not-just-in-national-politics/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/on-leadership/wp/2016/06/11/a-hillary-clinton-elizabeth-warren-pairing-would-be-profoundly-unusual-and-not-just-in-national-politics/)
He is getting negative media. In the primary all he had to do was appeal to the racist Republican base. Most folks, like 90 something % that are turned on by racist campaigns were already domiciled in that party. That primary. Can he spread the hate? I doubt it. Obama won twice, not because people did not try.
Trump generally has negative appeal. He needs the Republican voters to be committed to him, to have a chance(in some cases to even retain current red states). I see that as more of a problem for him than Hillary and Bernie supporters. Hillary's own lack of appeal, is what will save him from being bulldozed.
I think the polls should settle in the next few weeks. Barring some drama from the FBI on the Clinton email affair, she should be on her way. People will hold their noses and vote for her.
Here is the first salvo from Clinton; it's currently doing loops on mainstream TV. In addition to free negative media . Watched by an unsympathetic non-Republican crowd.
In his remarks today, President Obama disgracefully refused to even say the words 'Radical Islam'. For that reason alone, he should step down.
If we do not get tough and smart real fast, we are not going to have a country anymore. Because our leaders are weak, I said this was going to happen – and it is only going to get worse.
Last night, our nation was attacked by a radical Islamic terrorist. It was the worst terrorist attack on our soil since 9/11, and the second of its kind in 6 months. My deepest sympathy and support goes out to the victims, the wounded, and their families.
In his remarks today, President Obama disgracefully refused to even say the words 'Radical Islam'. For that reason alone, he should step down. If Hillary Clinton, after this attack, still cannot say the two words 'Radical Islam' she should get out of this race for the Presidency.
If we do not get tough and smart real fast, we are not going to have a country anymore. Because our leaders are weak, I said this was going to happen – and it is only going to get worse. I am trying to save lives and prevent the next terrorist attack. We can't afford to be politically correct anymore.
The terrorist, Omar Mir Saddique Mateen, is the son of an immigrant from Afghanistan who openly published his support for the Afghanistani Taliban and even tried to run for President of Afghanistan. According to Pew, 99% of people in Afghanistan support oppressive Sharia Law.
We admit more than 100,000 lifetime migrants from the Middle East each year. Since 9/11, hundreds of migrants and their children have been implicated in terrorism in the United States.
Hillary Clinton wants to dramatically increase admissions from the Middle East, bringing in many hundreds of thousands during a first term – and we will have no way to screen them, pay for them, or prevent the second generation from radicalizing.
We need to protect all Americans, of all backgrounds and all beliefs, from Radical Islamic Terrorism - which has no place in an open and tolerant society. Radical Islam advocates hate for women, gays, Jews, Christians and all Americans. I am going to be a President for all Americans, and I am going to protect and defend all Americans. We are going to make America safe again and great again for everyone.
- Donald J. Trump
Donald Trump has jumped ahead of Hillary Clinton by 4 percentage points, the first time he has led her in a national poll since 38 days ago.
The poll of 1,000 likely voters from Rasmussen Reports found that 43 per cent would vote for Trump if the November election were held today, compared with 39 per cent for Clinton.
That represents a 9-point swing in just the last week: Seven days ago the same pollsters reported that Clinton was leading the presidential race by 5 points.
So trump settle on Mike Prince for VP.I see the poll numbers are tight. Hillary VP choice is romoured to be military general.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
We should see a bump in Trump's overall numbers after the convention. The popular numbers are kinder to him thus far. The electoral college math still looks like a nightmare for Trump; this is the only thing that matters.
This is Trump election to lose. ISIS are making him POTUS every day they attack the white world. Looking at battleground states - they're pretty tight now. Just like Britain shocked everybody by exiting EU - American whites are ready for Trump. I am not sure how Trump will implode - he has said all the stupid (iest) things one could say already - and yet he still very very strong.
Real clear - battle ground states
Clinton versus Trump
Pennsylvania 45.5 42.3 Clinton +3.2
Florida 44.0 43.4 Clinton +0.6
Ohio 43.5 42.0 Clinton +1.5Trending Down ---Clinton is having problem in place where Obama won with 69% and where a rethug has to win - and Trump will carry this big.
Wisconsin 44.3 38.7 Clinton +5.6
Iowa 42.3 39.3 Clinton +3.0
Virginia 43.8 39.0 Clinton +4.8
North Carolina 44.0 42.0 Clinton +2.0
Georgia 40.8 45.0 Trump +4.2
New Hampshire 43.4 40.8 Clinton +2.6We should see a bump in Trump's overall numbers after the convention. The popular numbers are kinder to him thus far. The electoral college math still looks like a nightmare for Trump; this is the only thing that matters.
Clinton choices a spanish senator Kaine. I think he already had the spanish vote - and should have chosen a military general - considering Trump has ran away with security.
In the meantime Trump is closing on Hillary
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus
Tim Kaine is a WASP. An old white man. A safe establishment type of guy. Hillary is making it harder than it should be. Shooting herself in the foot. Only days ago this guy called for the deregulation of the banking industry.
She should have picked a flaming liberal as a nod to Bernie Sanders base. A general would do her no good because she is already considered a hawk.
I kind of feel like she already has the Hispanic vote. They won't touch Trump with a 10 foot pole. It would make a difference if he increases their turnout from the upper 40 percent to maybe 70 percent or something. The vote that I think she is risking are the Sanders fanatics. They won't touch Trump with a 40 foot pole. But they may just not be motivated enough to show up.Tim Kaine is a WASP. An old white man. A safe establishment type of guy. Hillary is making it harder than it should be. Shooting herself in the foot. Only days ago this guy called for the deregulation of the banking industry.
She should have picked a flaming liberal as a nod to Bernie Sanders base. A general would do her no good because she is already considered a hawk.
I just listened to the guy do it in the habla lingo, how experiences south of the border changed his life, etc. The Hispanic vote is in. Smart move.
For the firstime in realclearpolitics average polls I am seeing Trump overtook clintonAs expected. The numbers should stabilize after Clinton's turn to dominate prime time uncontested for a week.
RCP Poll Average 43.9 44.1 Trump +0.2Trending Up
4-Way RCP Average 40.4 39.8 Clinton +0.6Trending Down
RCP Electoral Map 202 164
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Democratic convention - what new thing will Hillary say to capture the people attention. Seem like the boring I am a safe pair of hands. Trump will continue to hog the news because he is attention seeking whore who will blurt nonsense after nonsense.She won't say anything new. Just as Trump said nothing new.
The terror....
Germany has had terrible week of terror -after they let thousands of Syrian in- advantage Trump
Democratic convention - what new thing will Hillary say to capture the people attention. Seem like the boring I am a safe pair of hands. Trump will continue to hog the news because he is attention seeking whore who will blurt nonsense after nonsense.She won't say anything new. Just as Trump said nothing new.
The terror....
Germany has had terrible week of terror -after they let thousands of Syrian in- advantage Trump
It's just the constant bombardment of the activities of the convention, mostly under the control and direction of her machine, on MSNBC, CNN, Fox News, ABC, what have you, 24/7.
Monday, Michelle Obama, Bernie Sanders say nice things. Tuesday, Bill Clinton. Wednesday Obama brings his gravitas. Something like that. Trump takes a back seat having to rely on paid adverts, in specific targeted states.
The intervening period before the debates is likely to get dirty. By debate time, the dirt having done as much as possible, there is tiny sliver mostly of thoughtful voters still undecided. Thoughtful voters and Trump...
Still, Hillary herself is Trump's best shot.
Cory needs to get married and have some kids running around or he needs to come-out otherwise the rumors will never end.
If Cory Booker is the future of the Democratic Party, they have no future! I know more about Cory than he knows about himself.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 26, 2016
"If there’s voter fraud, this election will be illegitimate, the election of the winner will be illegitimate, we will have a constitutional crisis, widespread civil disobedience, and the government will no longer be the government," Stone said. He also promised a "bloodbath" if the Democrats attempt to "steal" the election.http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-general-election-rigged-potential-challenge
If the current poll numbers are sustained Hillary is sleepwalking into the White House. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
At the moment Trump is fairing badly. So badly he is starting to focus on excuses. Roger Stone, a Trump anal wipe has promised a bloodbath if(when) Trump loses.Quote"If there’s voter fraud, this election will be illegitimate, the election of the winner will be illegitimate, we will have a constitutional crisis, widespread civil disobedience, and the government will no longer be the government," Stone said. He also promised a "bloodbath" if the Democrats attempt to "steal" the election.http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-general-election-rigged-potential-challenge
If the current poll numbers are sustained Hillary is sleepwalking into the White House. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/)
At the moment Trump is fairing badly. So badly he is starting to focus on excuses. Roger Stone, a Trump anal wipe has promised a bloodbath if(when) Trump loses.Quote"If there’s voter fraud, this election will be illegitimate, the election of the winner will be illegitimate, we will have a constitutional crisis, widespread civil disobedience, and the government will no longer be the government," Stone said. He also promised a "bloodbath" if the Democrats attempt to "steal" the election.http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-general-election-rigged-potential-challenge (http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-general-election-rigged-potential-challenge)
Now that I think about it a bit more, is predestined to implode. In other words, if you want to hurt grandiose narcissists, target their feelings of job accomplishment (https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/fulfillment-any-age/201111/beware-the-narcissistic-bubble), exactly what Khan unwittingly did.
Wait until the debates, which some are beginning to suspect he wants to avoid at all costs. But whether he debates or not, the implosion is coming, especially the closer he gets to the election date, the more untouchable he's gonna feel.
I cringed this morning when I read this story in Politico (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/melania-trump-immigration-donald-226648) which pretty clearly demonstrated that Melania Trump was an undocumented worker for years when she began her modeling career in the US in the mid-90s. I say I cringed not because there's anything wrong with the piece but because we too were working on it back in February and March and had it pretty well nailed. The hold up was that there was at least one theoretically possible way she could have been legal that we couldn't definitively rule out since the Trumps' of course were not going to answer any questions or provide any of her immigrants papers. The irony in all of this is that the evidence against Trump comes almost entirely from her own mouth, specifically a January interview she gave to Harper's Bazaar and a subsequent TV interview with Mika Brzezinski in which she explained that she was nothing like those awful 'illegals' her husband wants to expel en masse.
The key is this passage in that interview (http://www.harpersbazaar.com/culture/features/a13529/melania-trump-interview-0216/) ...
"I came here for my career, and I did so well, I moved here. It never crossed my mind to stay here without papers. That is just the person you are. You follow the rules. You follow the law. Every few months you need to fly back to Europe and stamp your visa. After a few visas, I applied for a green card and got it in 2001. After the green card, I applied for citizenship. And it was a long process."
None of our readers seem to have read that profile - or at least they didn't make the connection and tell us. But at least two did see her subsequent late February interview with Mika Brzezinski in which she made essentially the same claims.
"I followed the law. I never thought to stay here without papers. I had a visa, I traveled every few months back to the country to Slovenia to stamp the visa. I came back, I applied for the green card, I applied for the citizenship later on after many years of green card. So I went by system, I went by the law. And you should do that, you should not just say let me stay here and whatever happens, happens."
The irony here is that Melania lays it on rather thick about how she's nothing like the people her husband wants to boot out of the country. Let's call it her 'I was legit white immigrant' tour.
Here's the problem, as both TPM Readers JSK (immigrant) and PG (immigration lawyer) noted to us in emails: the set of circumstances Melania describes makes it almost certain that she was in the US on travel/visitor visas rather than a work visa. If you're on a work visa you don't have to keep traveling back and forth to get your visa renewed. (The Politico article goes through the technical names for these different kinds of visas.)
There is a possible exception: very high profile athletes and models can get a kind of visa which allows them to visit the country and work for a short period of time. But Melania wasn't in that echelon at all. She was one of many models trying to get a start in the business doing mainly catalog work.
The upshot is that Melania was almost certainly working in the US illegally. And every time she returned to the country and passed through immigration she would have had to have committed fraud by saying she in the US to visit rather than work.
In theory this would make her subsequent Green Card and even citizenship suspect, based on visa fraud earlier in the process.
It is only fair to say that based on our reporting this sort of illegal work was rife in the modeling industry at the time. This wouldn't have made her a particularly egregious example. But then few of those women are now married to a man who wants a zero tolerance policy that would lead to the expulsion of 3% of the current US population.
So if you're inclined to snark, Trump's third wife was an 'illegal'. Even her status in the country today could, in theory, be suspect.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/was-melania-trump-an-illegal-also-argh
— MELANIA TRUMP (@MELANIATRUMP) August 4, 2016
Yeap Donald on the ropes now. But don't count him out yet. He is an alley cat.
Yeap Donald on the ropes now. But don't count him out yet. He is an alley cat.
Yeah seem Trump is coming back up. Hillary just isn't likeable and trustworthy.
Yeah Clinton just lacks charm. Trump needs to improve ground game/turnout the vote to upstage her in swing states.Yeah seem Trump is coming back up. Hillary just isn't likeable and trustworthy.
Robina,
Am not a Clinton fan but Trump's ego will take the country back 50+ years.
A man who spews anything for a vote is not someone you can trust. Some time back Ventura and Swatzneggar spewed their way into Minesotta and California governorships and drove Minessota and California into oblivion. Jerry has been nursing CA and its resurecting slowly. Things have been so good for 4yrs now that people forget. Think before you even lean Donald.
My friend was telling me that the guy will change once he is in office, yes he will but, it will be his way.
Trump has hit his ceiling. Clinton's focus should now be the turnout machine and she makes history most unpopular candidate to win the White House.
Trump has hit his ceiling. Clinton's focus should now be the turnout machine and she makes history most unpopular candidate to win the White House.
Yes, she better. Turnout likelihood favors Trump. She also must avoid lies (health, etc) and Trumpish recklessness like terming his supporters as deplorables.