Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on March 19, 2015, 06:43:38 PM
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This is good news for those who think WB/IMF lost the plot when EU's Marshal plan was completed. They have never cared about Asia,Africa and Latin America beyond the lipservices.
http://www.nation.co.ke/business/China-glee-as-Europeans-go-to-Asian-lender/-/996/2658130/-/e0pptm/-/index.html
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India and China are projected to be the world largest economies in the world by 2060,Their economies will multiply by over 8X-10X,What that means is that these nations will see high economic growth,infrastructure spending and urbanization,Those factors coupled with slow growth across Europe and USA while ECB is dumping $60BN monthly in private institutions means all these monies will mostly end up in Asia and Africa through multi-lateral institutions,that's where the future of the world is,expect more of such in years to come,
Without Prejudice.
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I see you've finally got the memo. Facing the West is monumental waste of time and space. The US and EU have streamrolled reforms at IMF/WB and even UN despite the changing reality. For instance China and many countries have demanded severally that capital of WB and IMF be raised...so they can afford to really lend money enough to handle mega infrastructure projects worldwide..but US and EU which are technically broke...wanted to maintain the current shareholding...so they can use these same institution...for POLITICAL reasons..not least connected to the bank aims.
With ECB...it will be easy for say EAC countries to get funding for LAPSET....which will require maybe some 100b dollars if it was to snake it way from LAMU all the way to Congo.
If there is a a gov that is not seriously facing EAST...that is gov led by morons. China is already world leading economy in PPP terms..and will be world leader in nominal GDP next year or in 2017 (reason yuan appreciation+inflation+growth rate)...while India will surely wake up...and take over critical industries like ICT,Pharma and Biotech..in addition to manufacturing.
Africa time will come around 2050.
India and China are projected to be the world largest economies in the world by 2060,Their economies will multiply by over 8X-10X,What that means is that these nations will see high economic growth,infrastructure spending and urbanization,Those factors coupled with slow growth across Europe and USA while ECB is dumping $60BN monthly in private institutions means all these monies will mostly end up in Asia and Africa through multi-lateral institutions,that's where the future of the world is,expect more of such in years to come,
Without Prejudice.
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Facing the West is monumental waste of time and space. The US and EU have streamrolled reforms at IMF/WB and even UN despite the changing reality. For instance China and many countries have demanded severally that capital of WB and IMF be raised...so they can afford to really lend money enough to handle mega infrastructure projects worldwide..but US and EU which are technically broke...wanted to maintain the current shareholding...so they can use these same institution...for POLITICAL reasons..not least connected to the bank aims.
With ECB...it will be easy for say EAC countries to get funding for LAPSET....which will require maybe some 100b dollars if it was to snake it way from LAMU all the way to Congo.
If there is a a gov that is not seriously facing EAST...that is gov led by morons. China is already world leading economy in PPP terms..and will be world leader in nominal GDP next year or in 2017 (reason yuan appreciation+inflation+growth rate)...while India will surely wake up...and take over critical industries like ICT,Pharma and Biotech..in addition to manufacturing.
Africa time will come around 2050.
You continue to exhibit scattered knowledge,
(a) There is an oversupply of capital/money in the world,The USA and Europe QE to private institutions is more than the China $4TN reserves,such multi-lateral banks are important to ensure both sides of the world benefit otherwise you will have violence or regime change in recipient nations of China development finance,
(b) The west is not dead,One of the things that leads to high economic growth is infrastructure and urbanization,the west experienced both in 1940s-1980s and there was high economic growth..during that time China was unstable with its wrong communist policies which failed however when Deng xiaoping took over,He allowed private ownership which led to PPP in China infrastructure which led to high economic growth rates of 11% and urbanization from 1980s to late 2000s which created economic boom however with infrastructure deficit almost solved,China growth is now at 6% and will be a consumer economy like the west moving forward,As you can see,China is doing what the west already did long ago,
(c) Africa time is NOW NOT 2050..When we talk of economic growth,what do you think it mean?Africa Urbanization is less than 50% Vs West 80%,That means there will be demand for housing in Africa which will create demand for cement,wood products,paint,steel,etc,Less than 50% Africans are connected to the grid,That means we need investment in energy sector,Africa has 244KM of roads per 1000SqKM vs world average 944KM of roads per 1000sqKM,that means its an investment opportunity,Less than 50% Africans are connected to the internet,that's an investment opportunity,Our vehicle ownership rate is 24 per 1000 people vs developed world of 500 per 1000 people,an opportunity etc etc,That's what we mean by economic growth..solving deficits,when you do that,you create economic growth,
(d) Its not about China having high GDP but what matters most is the quality of life,per capita income,
Without Prejudice.
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With ECB...it will be easy for say EAC countries to get funding for LAPSET....which will require maybe some 100b dollars if it was to snake it way from LAMU all the way to Congo.
If there is a a gov that is not seriously facing EAST...that is gov led by morons. China is already world leading economy in PPP terms..
Is red supposed to be AIIB? Regardless, can someone explain to me why any African should get excited over the setting up of this bank? Has Africa even been mentioned anywhere in anything to do with this bank?
The name--Asian Infrastructure ...---should make it clear, but if it isn't some reading on what the Chinese say about it ought to. For example:
`China has begun preparations to set up a multilateral bank to fund infrastructure projects in Asia, the finance ministry said on Friday, looking to tap into demand for infrastructure growth as regional economies develop.
In a statement, the ministry said the planned Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank would have a capital of $50 billion, paid for by its members.
It would have a mandate to fund infrastructure projects in the region, complementing the work of other such entities, like the Asian Development Bank.
"The AIIB will mainly focus on infrastructure construction in Asia to promote regional connectivity and economic cooperation," the statement quoted Finance Minister Lou Jiwei as saying.'
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/07/china-bank-idUSL3N0M42NQ20140307
In other words, like the Asian Development bank, it will lend only to Asian countries. Where does anyone get the idea that it will somehow benefit Africans?
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what with Euro depreciation .... is it a reaction to 300k jobs created in US
well Kshs up it goes given tea and agricultural products getting hit by drought ...for importers of italian/turkey suits, land rovers, mercs.. they are good to go
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You're so all over with unrelated nonsense including your latest obsession or should i call it the latest stuff you've copied from twitter..urbanization..you new silver bullet.
We are talking a bank that can lend to gov..to treasuries.
You continue to exhibit scattered knowledge,
(a) There is an oversupply of capital/money in the world,The USA and Europe QE to private institutions is more than the China $4TN reserves,such multi-lateral banks are important to ensure both sides of the world benefit otherwise you will have violence or regime change in recipient nations of China development finance,
(b) The west is not dead,One of the things that leads to high economic growth is infrastructure and urbanization,the west experienced both in 1940s-1980s and there was high economic growth..during that time China was unstable with its wrong communist policies which failed however when Deng xiaoping took over,He allowed private ownership which led to PPP in China infrastructure which led to high economic growth rates of 11% and urbanization from 1980s to late 2000s which created economic boom however with infrastructure deficit almost solved,China growth is now at 6% and will be a consumer economy like the west moving forward,As you can see,China is doing what the west already did long ago,
(c) Africa time is NOW NOT 2050..When we talk of economic growth,what do you think it mean?Africa Urbanization is less than 50% Vs West 80%,That means there will be demand for housing in Africa which will create demand for cement,wood products,paint,steel,etc,Less than 50% Africans are connected to the grid,That means we need investment in energy sector,Africa has 244KM of roads per 1000SqKM vs world average 944KM of roads per 1000sqKM,that means its an investment opportunity,Less than 50% Africans are connected to the internet,that's an investment opportunity,Our vehicle ownership rate is 24 per 1000 people vs developed world of 500 per 1000 people,an opportunity etc etc,That's what we mean by economic growth..solving deficits,when you do that,you create economic growth,
(d) Its not about China having high GDP but what matters most is the quality of life,per capita income,
Without Prejudice.
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Said who? China has set up banks to lend to everyone. It now European time to join at China's terms. There are many China gov banks that lend to Africa,Asia, Latin America and of course the big one formed by BRIC which will eventually replace WB/IMF...if US doesn't read the signs of times.
This is a big story because China has money that can help solve most of humanity problems.
When US had same money way back in 1940s..they lent Europe serious money in the so called Marshall Plan.But since then...they've been reluctant or broke to do the same.
I hope you're not arguing about the importance of development loans or emergency loan during times like now when drought is ravaging say Kenya.
The lonely man out there is US...who knows their time when they can print dollars ovyo ovyo is over or even crash the world economy leading to global suffering is over...and soon the yuan will be the global currency.
he Asian Development bank, it will lend only to Asian countries. Where does anyone get the idea that it will somehow benefit Africans?
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US were happy when they were hoarding China's reserve but after crashing the global economy then using kifua to print dollars (and undervalue chinese/saudis debts]; chinese have been divesting their historic gazillions of reserves around the world.
You can imagine most of world reserves are sitting either idly or packed at US's broke vault..these reserves are from chinese trinkets being sold, saudi oils, norway oils and name them....
Those billions if divested world wide...will lift many people out of poverty.
Most of gov investment like in education are long time...a kid has to go thro 20yrs of education..to start pay backing in form of income yes taxes...and if you have China giving long term maturing loan..isn't that the solution to many of our problems.
what with Euro depreciation .... is it a reaction to 300k jobs created in US
well Kshs up it goes given tea and agricultural products getting hit by drought ...for importers of italian/turkey suits, land rovers, mercs.. they are good to go
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Pundit
China central govt. lends trillions to local govt to mask its indebtedness.
Spending on anything other than infrastructure is non existent. Cancer rates are thru the roof, so anyone who gets it is transferred into a "cancer camp".
At the same time, I am sure they will use every availble resource to make this world bank work. They want power - just like Sonko. Given the level of commitment I think it might work, but at the same time they have to show greatest level of accountability.
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You're so all over with unrelated nonsense including your latest obsession or should i call it the latest stuff you've copied from twitter..urbanization..you new silver bullet.
We are talking a bank that can lend to gov..to treasuries.
You continue to exhibit scattered knowledge,
(a) There is an oversupply of capital/money in the world,The USA and Europe QE to private institutions is more than the China $4TN reserves,such multi-lateral banks are important to ensure both sides of the world benefit otherwise you will have violence or regime change in recipient nations of China development finance,
(b) The west is not dead,One of the things that leads to high economic growth is infrastructure and urbanization,the west experienced both in 1940s-1980s and there was high economic growth..during that time China was unstable with its wrong communist policies which failed however when Deng xiaoping took over,He allowed private ownership which led to PPP in China infrastructure which led to high economic growth rates of 11% and urbanization from 1980s to late 2000s which created economic boom however with infrastructure deficit almost solved,China growth is now at 6% and will be a consumer economy like the west moving forward,As you can see,China is doing what the west already did long ago,
(c) Africa time is NOW NOT 2050..When we talk of economic growth,what do you think it mean?Africa Urbanization is less than 50% Vs West 80%,That means there will be demand for housing in Africa which will create demand for cement,wood products,paint,steel,etc,Less than 50% Africans are connected to the grid,That means we need investment in energy sector,Africa has 244KM of roads per 1000SqKM vs world average 944KM of roads per 1000sqKM,that means its an investment opportunity,Less than 50% Africans are connected to the internet,that's an investment opportunity,Our vehicle ownership rate is 24 per 1000 people vs developed world of 500 per 1000 people,an opportunity etc etc,That's what we mean by economic growth..solving deficits,when you do that,you create economic growth,
(d) Its not about China having high GDP but what matters most is the quality of life,per capita income,
Without Prejudice.
You are obsessed with the Chinese but they don't have the monopoly of money,there is TOO MUCH MONEY in the world right now chasing few infrastructural projects,
Of course urbanization is my new silver bullet because that is where the future of the world is,In cities and that's where some of that money from that bank will go to,it seems you've reached the end of your thinking capacity,i've talked about roads,rails,ports,energy,ICT where that money will go to not just urbanization,
Like i ALWAYS tell you..You have scattered knowledge which is USELESS,How can a right think creature say that Africa time is 2050 and west which developed China from 1978 is dead?that's idiotic to say the least,
Without Prejudice.
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Said who? China has set up banks to lend to everyone. It now European time to join at China's terms. There are many China gov banks that lend to Africa,Asia, Latin America.
So say the Chinese and the people who have set up the bank. That's who. Please do your homework on the bank's mandate. Did you even read the quote I gave above? If in doubt, please use Google for other sources.
"The AIIB will mainly focus on infrastructure construction in Asia to promote regional connectivity and economic cooperation," the statement quoted Finance Minister Lou Jiwei as saying."
That's the Chinese Financce Minister. I think on such matters he knows more that Pundit of Nipate.
"The fundamental mandate of the AIIB is to promote Asian economic development and regional economic cooperation by providing financing in infrastructure and other productive areas in Asian countries."
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2014-03/07/c_133168752.htm
"Its mandate is to focus on financing in infrastructure development that helps Asia at both the national and regional levels."
http://www.chinausfocus.com/finance-economy/the-benefits-of-the-asian-infrastructure-investment-bank/#sthash.vgwvJWw7.dpuf
Do you have any evidence at all that the mandate of this bank includes lending to places outside Asia (e.g. Africa)?
There are many China gov banks that lend to Africa,Asia, Latin America ...
Yes, there are many Chinese banks that lend all over the place. But we are talking about this particular bank, the AIIB, which got you running here in all sorts of excitement.
This is a big story because China has money that can help solve most of humanity problems.
He, he, he, ... This is the kind of statement I describe as Pure Pundit!
First, China may have a huge GDP, but have you looked at the GDP per capita?
Second, that statement could come only from someone who has not travelled in China and sees it terms of glitzty photos of places like Shanghai. China has large numbers of desperately poor people and China has consistently refused to contribute more to the UN on that basis. But some Africans are dreaming of enough Chinese money to solve most of humanity's problems!
Third, I encourage you to give up on this idea that China will somehow save Africa (and anyone else). No matter what, Africans will have to do for themselves, and the sooner they realize that the better.
and of course the big one formed by BRIC which will eventually replace WB/IMF...
He, he, he, ... I take it you have not been following the story of that bank. Start at the link below (from mid-2014) and update yourself:
"Setting up rivals to the IMF and World Bank is easier than running them:
...
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21607851-setting-up-rivals-imf-and-world-bank-easier-running-them-acronym
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US were happy when they were hoarding China's reserve but after crashing the global economy then using kifua to print dollars (and undervalue chinese/saudis debts]; chinese have been divesting their historic gazillions of reserves around the world.
More scattered knowledge,
The Chinese are still holding the usa bonds to hedge against a stronger Yuan since its a major trading nation,A stronger yuan against usd means less exports,
Secondly,China economic growth has slowed from 11%-6% and that means industries making losses,they are supplying credit and equipments to Asia and Africa to stimulate growth in their industries and economy at large,
Without Prejudice.
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chinese have been divesting their historic gazillions of reserves around the world.
I'm going to include this one with what Mr. Mansfield calls "scattered knowledge". Apart from Pundit of Nipate, here are how people explain the drop--and it's not been "gazillions"--of China's reserves:
"Blame Capital Flight For China's Biggest Ever Fall In Forex Reserves"
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2014/10/19/blame-capital-flight-for-chinas-biggest-ever-fall-in-forex-reserves/
"Last week, China’s forex regulator reassured markets that there was no need to worry about a $100 billion fall in reserves in the third quarter — the largest such drop since 1996.
...
China’s foreign reserve pile fell to $3.89 trillion from $3.99 trillion at the end of June. Guan Tao, head of China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange’s balance-of-payments department, cited the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy as a main factor contributing to the decline, adding there were no risks or problems."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-next-after-chinas-foreign-reserve-fall-2014-10-26
Please pay attention to: (a) the red and (b) the person doing the talking; he's another guy who probably know more on such matters than Pundit of Nipate.
" China’s foreign-exchange reserves unexpectedly fell by the most on record in the third quarter, a sign speculative capital is being pulled from the country amid concern about a deepening economic slowdown.
The holdings, which are more than triple the size of any other nation’s, declined by $103 billion to $3.89 trillion, according to figures released today."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-10-16/china-s-reserves-retreat-from-4-trillion-mark-as-outflows-seen
Those billions if divested world wide...will lift many people out of poverty.
Do you have any understanding of why countries hold foreign-exchange reserves? Do you understand why China holds the most, but the USA holds less than some developing countries?
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Like Mansfield you've gone into lots of the usual nitpicking and lots googling just to make a point. I suggest you keep abreast with what is happening outside the US regularly and you won't have to bombard us with links; which are a dime a dozen.China has 4 trillion reserves. They would keep most of it as USD (because USD is or was the global currency) or EURO or Yen for purpose of trading and INVEST the extra...in US tbill and tbonds..but US and EU has pretty much screwed themselves..and for the last few years China has been looking for where to park the i...and this is what get me excited as Kenyan/African..because if we play it right...we could be swimming in money to solve many of our problems.
Manfield think there is a lot of capital...but which capital..hot money created in wallstreet...which come and go..crushing the economy in the process....or 50 yr maturing loan from China or WB.
Bottomline; Everyone is facing EAST (china) for a reason. MONEY.
Who you have imagine somebody lending kenya money to build SGR previously? 450B!
chinese have been divesting their historic gazillions of reserves around the world.
I'm going to include this one with what Mr. Mansfield calls "scattered knowledge". Apart from Pundit of Nipate, here are how people explain the drop--and it's not been "gazillions"--of China's reserves:
"Blame Capital Flight For China's Biggest Ever Fall In Forex Reserves"
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2014/10/19/blame-capital-flight-for-chinas-biggest-ever-fall-in-forex-reserves/
"Last week, China’s forex regulator reassured markets that there was no need to worry about a $100 billion fall in reserves in the third quarter — the largest such drop since 1996.
...
China’s foreign reserve pile fell to $3.89 trillion from $3.99 trillion at the end of June. Guan Tao, head of China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange’s balance-of-payments department, cited the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy as a main factor contributing to the decline, adding there were no risks or problems."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-next-after-chinas-foreign-reserve-fall-2014-10-26
Please pay attention to: (a) the red and (b) the person doing the talking; he's another guy who probably know more on such matters than Pundit of Nipate.
" China’s foreign-exchange reserves unexpectedly fell by the most on record in the third quarter, a sign speculative capital is being pulled from the country amid concern about a deepening economic slowdown.
The holdings, which are more than triple the size of any other nation’s, declined by $103 billion to $3.89 trillion, according to figures released today."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-10-16/china-s-reserves-retreat-from-4-trillion-mark-as-outflows-seen
Those billions if divested world wide...will lift many people out of poverty.
Do you have any understanding of why countries hold foreign-exchange reserves? Do you understand why China holds the most, but the USA holds less than some developing countries?
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China has 4 trillion reserves.
(a) HYPE,The Chinese money is in government hands,The west money is in private hands,
They would keep most of it as USD (because USD is the global currency) or EURO or Yen for purpose of trading and INVEST the extra...in US tbill and tbonds
(b) That is correct,
but US and EU has pretty much screwed themselves
(c) Wrong,The West had its fair share of high economic growth rates in 1940s,1950s,1960/70s when they were building there infrastructure,that is roads,energy and rails,that creates commodity demand which boosts manufacturing in industries like cement,copper and steel..by the time the Chinese made an about turn on communism in 1978,the west had already solved its infrastructure deficit and that made its economy to slow down while China economy was booming due to infrastructure projects but since now the Chinese infrastructural deficit is almost done growth has slowed from 11%-6% and will continue to slow,attention now shifts to Africa,
this is what get me excited as Kenyan/African..because if we play it right...we could be swimming in money to solve many of our problems.
(d) Your excitement is IDIOTIC,The Chinese came to Kenya and say they will build the rails with two conditions:
(1) The finance the project which means they earn interest,that is very wrong because if the gov of Kenya brought together kenyan commercial banks which hold hundreds of millions and kenyans who are holding 150BN on M-shwari,we would be able to benefit the mwanachi by financing and earning interest,
(2) The Chinese supply building materials like rails,that is a wasted opportunity of building capacity of our local steel industry and creating jobs,
Manfield think there is a lot of capital...but which capital..hot money created in wallstreet...which come and go..crushing the economy in the process....or 50 yr maturing loan from China or WB.
Bottomline; Everyone is facing EAST (china) for a reason. MONEY.
Who you have imagine somebody lending kenya money to build SGR previously? 450B!
(e) Like I've said again and again,there is an oversupply of capital/money in the world,To put the numbers to perspective,The Chinese gov is holding $4TN,The BOJ FED ECB have pumped over $5TN to private commercial banks since 2009 while you have another over $20TN sitting in offshore accounts Vs Africa infrastructural projects worth $93BN annually,Don't you see there is oversupply of cheap money because too much money means concessional loans due to competition?
Other examples,The Chinese lend us 300BN to build SGR,When the Kenya gov sold the Eurobond,It was oversubscribed 8X mostly by the west,they were ready to give Kenya $8BN while in Rwanda,when they said they want $400MN,The west was ready to give $3.2BN,All these will give more room for concessional loans and better deals for Africa,it therefore baffles me when i see you praising the Chinese,
The purpose of these multi-lateral financial institutions is to create WIN-WIN situations between the East and the west through joint financing schemes where both sides of the world benefit in mega projects in Africa and Asia,
Streamline your knowledge,
Without Prejudice.
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Mansfield,
You're still talking lots of nonsense. You cannot compare private capital -like EuroBond- [that wall street shylocks play around with] with loans from banks like Chinese,ADB, WB, IMF,ECB and such banks..that lent at CONCESSIONAL basis..with long grace period..and with even longer maturity periods. These are loans that GOV borrows..to invest in really long time projects...like educating the next generations of workers and leaders.
This other capital..be it from wall streets or from kenya banks [which already max out buying treasury's tbills and tbonds]...has always been there...but at interest rate of? with what conditionally?
Chinese have tonnes of money that everyone wants. Only those who positioned themselves well, will get it. Telling us to face West, when our colonial master is busying learning Chinese is the height of utoto.
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You cannot compare private capital with loans from banks like Chinese,ADB, WB, IMF,ECB and such banks..that lent at CONCESSIONAL basis..with long grace period..and with even longer maturity periods.
(a) The IMF,WB,ADB are formed by member governments,we can simply say they are governments,
(b) They get their revenues from:
(1) Member governments,
(2) Private institutions like banks and funds,
What does that tell you?That the Kenya government,Through PPP can directly enter into concessional arrangements with private local and foreign investors,world bank does not have that monopoly,What's important is the investor to receive a return on investment,
(c) A Eurobond is a foreign denominated loans,Years ago we used to get these debt through institutions like world bank but through Eurobonds we get it directly from the market,everyone even Chinese sells them,even you pundit can buy them,
Chinese have tonnes of money that everyone wants. Only those who positioned themselves well, will get it. Telling us to face West, when our colonial master is busying learning Chinese
The Chinese hold are very small percentage of the total money in the world,the also receive over $100BN in investment from abroad mainly from the west and nobody has said that we face west,we cannot mortgage ourselves to the Chinese when we have many options to make better deals,Of course we have 1.3BN people who speak Chinese,about 20% of the world population while the rest 80% of the world speaks different languages like English,French,spanish,et etc we live in a global world and yu want to do business with them,you have to learn Chinese,
Without Prejudice.
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We are nearly getting there. Let paraphrase again. China is offering tonnes of development loans to gov at near concessional loans or sometimes at 60% grant. Our gov..be it in Africa..or Asia..or Europe..are queing for these cheap loans.Anybody not taking advantage of that..is a moron.
Gov,parastal and private sector can similar take advantage of the debt market..be it tbill/tbond floated by CBK..or through NSE or LSE or NYSE..of course with a lot of cautions. Such kind of loans have brought forth financial crisis...latest Argentina,Greece,Asia financial crisis,global crisis of 2007, the great depression etc etc. Those are your loan sharks or shylocks.
In the meantime multilateral lenders like IMF and WB should allow China to pump more capital into it...so IMF and WB can truly respond to contemporary crises...right now the bank is a joke..that now passes for NGO doing poverty work...instead of a bank that can finance lapset yote at one go.
And you should know who has stalled reforms in IMF and WB...USA.
The countries that truly have real money to lend to others i dare say are China, Arab nations(Saudi esp) and maybe Norway. US,Japan and Europe are playing poker...indebted to the eye balls..yet somehow lending money :) They are simply printing money. US gov, individuals, companies and states or counties..are indebted to the eyeballs..they have max out all their 100 credit cards..and yet they somehow send the same money as outflow investment to China or Kenya...talk of over-leveraging. The same case with Japan and Europe...debts of more than 100%...Japan 250% or about.
CHINA i repeat is only country you want to focus going forward. They have real money backed by real fundamentals.
You cannot compare private capital with loans from banks like Chinese,ADB, WB, IMF,ECB and such banks..that lent at CONCESSIONAL basis..with long grace period..and with even longer maturity periods.
(a) The IMF,WB,ADB are formed by member governments,we can simply say they are governments,
(b) They get their revenues from:
(1) Member governments,
(2) Private institutions like banks and funds,
What does that tell you?That the Kenya government,Through PPP can directly enter into concessional arrangements with private local and foreign investors,world bank does not have that monopoly,What's important is the investor to receive a return on investment,
(c) A Eurobond is a foreign denominated loans,Years ago we used to get these debt through institutions like world bank but through Eurobonds we get it directly from the market,everyone even Chinese sells them,even you pundit can buy them,
Chinese have tonnes of money that everyone wants. Only those who positioned themselves well, will get it. Telling us to face West, when our colonial master is busying learning Chinese
The Chinese hold are very small percentage of the total money in the world,the also receive over $100BN in investment from abroad mainly from the west and nobody has said that we face west,we cannot mortgage ourselves to the Chinese when we have many options to make better deals,Of course we have 1.3BN people who speak Chinese,about 20% of the world population while the rest 80% of the world speaks different languages like English,French,spanish,et etc we live in a global world and yu want to do business with them,you have to learn Chinese,
Without Prejudice.
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or sometimes at 60% grant.
(a) Can you provide evidence of such a case of 60% grant and figure and also avail evidence of who got the mining rights and value of minerals in such a country to evaluate the amount of thuggery,
Gov,parastal and private sector can similar take advantage of the debt market..be it tbill/tbond floated by CBK..or through NSE or LSE or NYSE..of course with a lot of cautions. Such kind of loans have brought forth financial crisis...latest Argentina,Greece,Asia financial crisis,global crisis of 2007, the great depression etc etc. Those are your loan sharks or shylocks.
(b) Monetary policy,
Globally,Most foreign debt whether by Chinese or Americans is in USD terms which is the global currency,What that means is that what happens in the USA affects the global debt market you see,When the FED raises the interest rates,USD appreciates,When it lowers the interest rates,the dollar depreciates,that means when the Federal reserve raised the interest rates from 1994-7,The USD appreciated against all other currencies,that means the Asian nations which were heavily indebted suffered because inflation went up,currency lost value and economy crumbled,its the same thing happening now,the best time to borrow was 2008-2013,With the fed finished with QE and is about to raise interest rates,Nations will suffer as dollar gains value,
In the meantime multilateral lenders like IMF and WB should allow China to pump more capital into it...so IMF and WB can truly respond to contemporary crises...right now the bank is a joke..that now passes for NGO doing poverty work...instead of a bank that can finance lapset yote at one go.
And you should know who has stalled reforms in IMF and WB...USA.
These institutions like IMF or WB will always advance the agenda of big powers,we need local based solutions and strike better concessional deals with private investors,
The countries that truly have real money to lend to others i dare say are China, Arab nations(Saudi esp) and maybe Norway. US,Japan and Europe are playing poker...indebted to the eye balls..yet somehow lending money :) They are simply printing money. US gov, individuals, companies and states or counties..are indebted to the eyeballs..they have max out all their 100 credit cards..and yet they somehow send the same money as outflow investment to China or Kenya...talk of over-leveraging. The same case with Japan and Europe...debts of more than 100%...Japan 250% or about.
CHINA i repeat is only country you want to focus going forward. They have real money backed by real fundamentals.
You are praising Arabs and Chinese because you believe media hype of big money which is owned by the state unlike the west where there is even bigger money in private investors,QE is unconventional monetary policy and has been in the world for decades,its buying debt of private commercial institutions to lower debt yield and spur growth...to add more,the west is behind the development of China and Arab world through PPP,
Without Prejudice.
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You're getting tied up in knots because you don't have knowledge to be able to simplify and understands global economics.
Debt markets are affected by many variables...stop yapping about exchange rate(USD) and fed monetary policy..that your read somewhere. The biggest risk in borrowing from wall street or london is market SENTIMENTS...driven mostly by manipulators and speculators...how many times have you seen good stocks or debts get harmed! The same with countries..you borrow from Wall Street..and prepare to be eaten alive..when all over sudden interest rates rises to 20%..and you have to default. A country therefore safest bet is to borrow from WB,IMF, China and other such lenders with flexible terms. EuroBond and such traded debts are very very risky.
IMF and WB are not US or EU institution...they are suppose to be GLOBAL institutions like the UN...they are suppose to have MEGA CAPITAL to deal with world financial problems. US cannot raise capital to make the bank a World Bank and yet they do not want China to pump their capital and increase their shareholding.
Lastly China are yet to allow PRIVATE sectors in critical sectors like BANKING leave alone infrastructure. This is another nonsense you've recently read (PPP) and you're all over with it.
There is no silver bullet kijana..last week it was all about building houses for slums..then urbanization...now you're crazy about Public Private Partnerships.
Are those the stuff you go to listen in Alykan conference :) so you can get free water :)
or sometimes at 60% grant.
(a) Can you provide evidence of such a case of 60% grant and figure and also avail evidence of who got the mining rights and value of minerals in such a country to evaluate the amount of thuggery,o
Gov,parastal and private sector can similar take advantage of the debt market..be it tbill/tbond floated by CBK..or through NSE or LSE or NYSE..of course with a lot of cautions. Such kind of loans have brought forth financial crisis...latest Argentina,Greece,Asia financial crisis,global crisis of 2007, the great depression etc etc. Those are your loan sharks or shylocks.
(b) Monetary policy,
Globally,Most foreign debt whether by Chinese or Americans is in USD terms which is the global currency,What that means is that what happens in the USA affects the global debt market you see,When the FED raises the interest rates,USD appreciates,When it lowers the interest rates,the dollar depreciates,that means when the Federal reserve raised the interest rates from 1994-7,The USD appreciated against all other currencies,that means the Asian nations which were heavily indebted suffered because inflation went up,currency lost value and economy crumbled,its the same thing happening now,the best time to borrow was 2008-2013,With the fed finished with QE and is about to raise interest rates,Nations will suffer as dollar gains value,
In the meantime multilateral lenders like IMF and WB should allow China to pump more capital into it...so IMF and WB can truly respond to contemporary crises...right now the bank is a joke..that now passes for NGO doing poverty work...instead of a bank that can finance lapset yote at one go.
And you should know who has stalled reforms in IMF and WB...USA.
These institutions like IMF or WB will always advance the agenda of big powers,we need local based solutions and strike better concessional deals with private investors,
The countries that truly have real money to lend to others i dare say are China, Arab nations(Saudi esp) and maybe Norway. US,Japan and Europe are playing poker...indebted to the eye balls..yet somehow lending money :) They are simply printing money. US gov, individuals, companies and states or counties..are indebted to the eyeballs..they have max out all their 100 credit cards..and yet they somehow send the same money as outflow investment to China or Kenya...talk of over-leveraging. The same case with Japan and Europe...debts of more than 100%...Japan 250% or about.
CHINA i repeat is only country you want to focus going forward. They have real money backed by real fundamentals.
You are praising Arabs and Chinese because you believe media hype of big money which is owned by the state unlike the west where there is even bigger money in private investors,QE is unconventional monetary policy and has been in the world for decades,its buying debt of private commercial institutions to lower debt yield and spur growth...to add more,the west is behind the development of China and Arab world through PPP,
Without Prejudice.
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Like Mansfield you've gone into lots of the usual nitpicking and lots googling just to make a point. I suggest you keep abreast with what is happening outside the US regularly and you won't have to bombard us with links; which are a dime a dozen.China has 4 trillion reserves.
You said that:
"chinese have been divesting their historic gazillions of reserves around the world."
As usual, you simply made up such nonsense and it was necessary to point that out. Now, say "thank you" for the enlightenment.
By the way, if you think China's $4 trillion in reserves is a lot of money, may I point out that that Black Rock, a single American investment company, has about $4.6 trillion to play with.
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You're getting tied up in knots because you don't have knowledge to be able to simplify and understands global economics.
Debt markets are affected by many variables...stop yapping about exchange rate(USD) and fed monetary policy..that your read somewhere. The biggest risk in borrowing from wall street or london is market SENTIMENTS...driven mostly by manipulators and speculators...how many times have you seen good stocks or debts get harmed! The same with countries..you borrow from Wall Street..and prepare to be eaten alive..when all over sudden interest rates rises to 20%..and you have to default. A country therefore safest bet is to borrow from WB,IMF, China and other such lenders with flexible terms. EuroBond and such traded debts are very very risky.
IMF and WB are not US or EU institution...they are suppose to be GLOBAL institutions like the UN...they are suppose to have MEGA CAPITAL to deal with world financial problems. US cannot raise capital to make the bank a World Bank and yet they do not want China to pump their capital and increase their shareholding.
Lastly China are yet to allow PRIVATE sectors in critical sectors like BANKING leave alone infrastructure. This is another nonsense you've recently read (PPP) and you're all over with it.
There is no silver bullet kijana..last week it was all about building houses for slums..then urbanization...now you're crazy about Public Private Partnerships.
Are those the stuff you go to listen in Alykan conference :) so you can get free water :)
Seems you have run out of ammo,
Aly khan is a great guy,
Without Prejudice.
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if you think China's $4 trillion in reserves is a lot of money, may I point out that that Black Rock, a single American investment company, has about $4.6 trillion to play with.
Precisely,
Without Prejudice.
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Seems you have run out of ammo,
One thing that has to be "admired" is the guy's absolute devotion, bordering on religious faith, to his notion that China will save Africa. Everything is interpreted in a way that supports his faith, and not even the strongest and clearest of facts will move him from what he wants to believe. On the contrary, he will simply counter with his own home-made "facts" and keep going.
If I ever become the leader of a cult, I will print out Pundit's writings and tell my followers, "this man should be your model; yours is to believe and not let facts get in the way!".
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China indeed will save Africa. When we get another benefactor with as much scale as China i will let you know.
One thing that has to be "admired" is the guy's absolute devotion, bordering on religious faith, to his notion that China will save Africa. Everything is interpreted in a way that supports his faith, and not even the strongest and clearest of facts will move him from what he wants to believe. On the contrary, he will simply counter with his own home-made "facts" and keep going.
If I ever become the leader of a cult, I will print out Pundit's writings and tell my followers, "this man should be your model; yours is to believe and not let facts get in the way!".
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Yeah blackrock has 4.6 trillion USD cash reserves in their fault..only in your dreams. They have "assets" from US treasury including all the toxic mortagages :D :D :D. Alkyan manfields mentor also has 2billion assets in USD he is managing. Get difference btw assets and reserves (CASH RESERVES). NSSF last i checked had 200B kshs assets...but those are people money...not...i repeat not CASH RESERVES.
You'd have to check Apple to find out biggest cash reserves a company in US has. 200BUSD which is more than reserves the US has.You wonder what will happen going forward as yuan is accepted more and more as global currency.
If you want to borrow money...go to China, or Saudi Arabia, or Norway.
You said that:
"chinese have been divesting their historic gazillions of reserves around the world."
As usual, you simply made up such nonsense and it was necessary to point that out. Now, say "thank you" for the enlightenment.
By the way, if you think China's $4 trillion in reserves is a lot of money, may I point out that that Black Rock, a single American investment company, has about $4.6 trillion to play with.
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Yeah blackrock has 4.6 trillion USD cash reserves in their fault..only in your dreams. They have "assets" from US treasury including all the toxic mortagages.
(a) Blackrock does NOT own the $4.5TN assets,Its an asset manager,that is it manages those assets on behalf of other people,
(b) Blackrock clients include individuals,pension funds,mutual funds,banks,sovereign wealth funds,central banks,insurance companies,From the last reported date these clients were 61% from USA,31% from EMEA and 8% from Asia pacific,
(c) Blackrock invests the client money so that they can get a return on investment,they invest in government bonds,real estate,infrastructural projects etc etc,
(d) As an asset manager,It charges its clients 1% management fee that's why its last reported annual revenue was $10BN,that is 1% of $1TN under management
Streamline your knowledge,
Without Prejudice.
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Everything is interpreted in a way that supports his faith, and not even the strongest and clearest of facts will move him from what he wants to believe.
He is delusional,A mental disorder,
Without Prejudice.
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You'd have to check Apple to find out biggest cash reserves a company in US has.
Mr. Manfield has tried to help you in such matters; for example, last I looked, pension money alone accounted for about $1.2 trillion that BlackRock had to play with. I hope you were paying attention.
There is another lesson I had in mind for you. To get it, you will have to go back and actually read some of the information I gave earlier. You seem to think that China has this great pile of reserves that it controls in every way. You should consider this:
"China’s foreign reserve pile fell to $3.89 trillion from $3.99 trillion at the end of June. Guan Tao, head of China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange’s balance-of-payments department, cited the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy as a main factor contributing to the decline, adding there were no risks or problems."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-next-after-chinas-foreign-reserve-fall-2014-10-26
One of the things I was trying to point out to you is that what happens with China's "tidy pile" actually depends on what the Americans do. Fortunately for them, the Chinese, unlike you, understand that.
200BUSD which is more than reserves the US has.You wonder what will happen going forward as yuan is accepted more and more as global currency.
I asked you earlier if you actually understand why countries hold forex reserves and why the US has less than even some developing country. Try and think about that one.
In the last 10 months, the USA dollar has risen so sharply that it is now approaching 12-year highs. The rest of the world is wailing about dollar-denominated purchases---sorry, most still don't take your yuan---and everyone is scrambling for dollars. (But, please, feel free to wake us up when "yuan is accepted more and more as global currency".)
Still, the Great Pundit of Nipate tells us that this is "printed" money and not money that is, as he puts it, "backed by fundamentals". So, what is the problem? The Americans are not printing fast enough? And is anybody rejecting dollars because they are "printed" and not "backed by fundamentals"?
By the way, I hope you do realize that even your Beloved China has most of its forex reserves in dollars. Perhaps they get special ones that are "backed by fundamentals", as opposed to the regular ones that are just "printed"? :D
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You'd have to check Apple to find out biggest cash reserves a company in US has.
If you actually read what I wrote, you would have noticed that the words I used were "[money] to play with" (as in "control"), and that is very different from "own". This might come as shocking news to you, but even most banks do not "own" all the money they have; they merely "control" the money their shareholders have parked there.
Mr. Manfield has tried to help you in such matters; for example, last I looked, pension money alone accounted for about $1.2 trillion that BlackRock had to play with. I hope you were paying attention.
There is another lesson I had in mind for you, and it is a pity that you missed it. To get it, you will have to go back and actually read some of the information I gave earlier. You seem to think that China has this great pile of reserves that it controls in every way, like money in a person's savings account or something. You should consider this (which I gave you earlier):
"China’s foreign reserve pile fell to $3.89 trillion from $3.99 trillion at the end of June. Guan Tao, head of China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange’s balance-of-payments department, cited the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy as a main factor contributing to the decline, adding there were no risks or problems."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-next-after-chinas-foreign-reserve-fall-2014-10-26
One of the things I was trying to point out to you is that what happens with China's "tidy pile" actually depends on what the Americans do. Fortunately for them, the Chinese, unlike you, understand that.
It is, in fact, a bit more than that: you actually need to try and understand how what happens in the US economy, what the US Federal Reserve does, ... affects the entire world economy. What the example shows you is that not even your Great China is immune.
200BUSD which is more than reserves the US has.You wonder what will happen going forward as yuan is accepted more and more as global currency.
I asked you earlier if you actually understand why countries hold forex reserves and why the US has less than even some developing country. Try and think about that one. Hint: when other folks keep chasing after your currency and are prepared to hand over theirs, just like that!, why would you bother to keep their currency?
In the last 10 months, the USA dollar has risen so sharply that it is now approaching 12-year highs. The rest of the world is wailing about their dollar-denominated purchases---sorry, most still don't take your yuan---and everyone is scrambling, frantically, for dollars.
Still, the Great Pundit of Nipate tells us that this is "printed" money and not money that is, as he puts it, "backed by fundamentals". So, what is the problem? The Americans are not printing fast enough? And is anybody rejecting dollars because they are "printed" and not "backed by fundamentals"?
By the way, I hope you do realize that even your Beloved China has most of its forex reserves in dollars. Perhaps they get special ones that are "backed by fundamentals", as opposed to the regular ones that are just "printed"? :D
Now, a little exercise for you: Go around forex shops in different parts of Kenya. You see anybody peddling or chasing RMB? But, please, feel free to wake us up when "yuan is accepted more and more as global currency".
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China indeed will save Africa. When we get another benefactor with as much scale as China i will let you know.
My friend:
Only the African will save Africa. What will the Chinese do that's really new? Here we are, communicating in a mzungu language; and take a look at the history of the best schools in Kenya? The main roads, railways, etc. ... where did they come from? How many Kenyans/Africans are dying to migrate to China as opposed to the West? (Oh, even today, Chinese folks are literally dying in shipping containers to get to the West!) Why is that so?
The Chinese are just going down a well-trodden path:
* The Chinese are building infrastructure? That has been done before, by others, and Mwafrika couldn't maintain it. In fact, even the Chinese themselves have been there before: when I notice people wanking about things like SGR, I ask them "look at TAZARA etc.; what's new"?
* The Chinese certainly are going after Africa's natural resources like nobody's business. Are the Africans getting a fair deal? That's your homework for today.
* The wildlife is pretty much gone. Folks keep jumping up and down about infrastructure. That can always be replaced, but wildlife once gone is really gone? The Chinese fondness for ivory, rhino horn, etc. comes from the fact that they once had their own. They "finished" that, and now they have turned to Africa, and, for some strange reason, Mwafrika is only too happy to help in promoting that disaster.
* If I recall correctly, the World Bank would not fund SGR because they did not see any long-term economic sense in it; the advice was that folks would be better off rehabilitating existing lines.
Enter Kung Fu: "Whether the line makes money or not is not our concern. We will lend you the money, and charge you interest. But just to be on the safe side, we will also charge you a hefty, shylock-rate fee to insure the loan. Plus, we will bring so many of our little guys to do the work; your guys can keep whistling in the little road-side markets."
In the 21st, we laugh at the idea that some of our ancestors gave away productive land---and, sometimes, even people!---in return for beads and shiny bits of glass. Meanwhile, right now, material for 22nd comedians is actively encouraged.
* Kenya is supposedly the Economic Powerhouse of East Africa, this, that, and the other. But right now, about 25% of Kenyan children will not reach their full potential, because they do not get enough nutrition to grow, mentally and physically. Many Kenyans don't even have clean water to drink or a place to take a shit. I will not belabor the point: even you should have a rough idea.
Is China-Man working to fix any of that? I doubt it: where are the shylock loans? where are the ivory and rhino horns?
It will not be the West or the East. Only Africans will save Africa.
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I see you're 10 yrs late. The world is rapidly changing and leaving your US of the yore behind. Isn't that why we Europe is joining China led bank and have open currency swaps. The day when US controlled world economy is over. China has your speak is world biggest economy (PPP) and world biggest consumer and producers of goods and services..therefore you might have to do a lot of updating!
When US started printing their way out of their own wall street induced malaise..China started thinking about plan B....and that meant reducing any more purchase of US tbills and tbonds...and investing that money in their own companies quest for internationalisation and of course lending more and more to other countries..they also have been working towards making yuan a global currency..with more spreads now (since 2014) and more currency swaps and exchange houses.Right now the Chinese card UnionPay has overtaken MasterCard and Visa Card in both value and transaction...so the yuan is pretty much the accepted. Countries like Russia have gone ahead and sign deals in Yuan..
The days of the dollar and USA are GONE!
The consesus is that China has long overtaken the US as world economic powerhouse. Enter China. And all we hear are animals will be decimated like it official policy of China to support poaching of elephants? That is truly scrapping the bottom of the barrel.
When it come to China effect on Africa economy..evidence is there for all to see...China pays a premium for our raw materials, they do not take them through force or war, and their investment in Africa infrastructure has pretty much paid off. Most accept the latest Africa rise is due to China.
WB is a failed institution that nobody should take seriously. Ask their IFC branch what mess they did with RVR concession that gok gave them to oversee!!!!!!!!!!!! before they give us yet another advice. Didnt IFC not get some south african farmer to ran the lunatic express...for 25yrs making any investment there by our gov impossible.
Kenya is going to do well if they design their economic policies with CHINA as their NO 1 PARTNER.
It doesn't mean we won't have problems...and really some your ideas are totally whack..the country is so complicated to have your little priorities (starvation, health)...perhaps next time you need to understand how we make our budget as a country...to appreciate the competing needs we have...with little resources we have. The country cannot come to standstill until your little priorities of everyone getting fed by gov and given free meds is done. Gov has to spread the money across all sectors...including nuclear research :)
China has been there and done recently ..we can do it if we learn from them.
.
My friend:
Only the African will save Africa. What will the Chinese do that's really new? Here we are, communicating in a mzungu language; and take a look at the history of the best schools in Kenya? The main roads, railways, etc. ... where did they come from? How many Kenyans/Africans are dying to migrate to China as opposed to the West? (Oh, even today, Chinese folks are literally dying in shipping containers to get to the West!) Why is that so?
The Chinese are just going down a well-trodden path:
* The Chinese are building infrastructure? That has been done before, by others, and Mwafrika couldn't maintain it. In fact, even the Chinese themselves have been there before: when I notice people wanking about things like SGR, I ask them "look at TAZARA etc.; what's new"?
* The Chinese certainly are going after Africa's natural resources like nobody's business. Are the Africans getting a fair deal? That's your homework for today.
* The wildlife is pretty much gone. Folks keep jumping up and down about infrastructure. That can always be replaced, but wildlife once gone is really gone? The Chinese fondness for ivory, rhino horn, etc. comes from the fact that they once had their own. They "finished" that, and now they have turned to Africa, and, for some strange reason, Mwafrika is only too happy to help in promoting that disaster.
* If I recall correctly, the World Bank would not fund SGR because they did not see any long-term economic sense in it; the advice was that folks would be better off rehabilitating existing lines.
Enter Kung Fu: "Whether the line makes money or not is not our concern. We will lend you the money, and charge you interest. But just to be on the safe side, we will also charge you a hefty, shylock-rate fee to insure the loan. Plus, we will bring so many of our little guys to do the work; your guys can keep whistling in the little road-side markets."
In the 21st, we laugh at the idea that some of our ancestors gave away productive land---and, sometimes, even people!---in return for beads and shiny bits of glass. Meanwhile, right now, material for 22nd comedians is actively encouraged.
* Kenya is supposedly the Economic Powerhouse of East Africa, this, that, and the other. But right now, about 25% of Kenyan children will not reach their full potential, because they do not get enough nutrition to grow, mentally and physically. Many Kenyans don't even have clean water to drink or a place to take a shit. I will not belabor the point: even you should have a rough idea.
Is China-Man working to fix any of that? I doubt it: where are the shylock loans? where are the ivory and rhino horns?
It will not be the West or the East. Only Africans will save Africa.
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I see you're 10 yrs late. The world is rapidly changing and leaving your US of the yore behind. Isn't that why we Europe is joining China led bank and have open currency swaps. The day when US controlled world economy is over. China has your speak is world biggest economy (PPP) and world biggest consumer and producers of goods and services..therefore you might have to do a lot of updating
You really ought to make an effort to understand some of the things that you read here and there. This stringing-together of random bits, from all over the place, is quite shabby. And you also need to get over obsession with sheer size; it is such mindlessness, without regard to quality, that explains much of Africa's sad story today.
As usual, it looks like I will have to whack you over the head, several times, with facts, before you wake up. You will, as usual, dodge by claiming that it's "nit-picking".
Start here:
"In the last 10 months, the USA dollar has risen so sharply that it is now approaching 12-year highs. The rest of the world is wailing about their dollar-denominated purchases---sorry, most still don't take your yuan---and everyone is scrambling, frantically, for dollars."
Do you see RMB anywhere in that picture, other the implication that nobody is chasing after yuan? Who are all these people you think are chasing after RMB? For what would they be doing that? Weka information hapa hapa.
The days of the US controlling the world economy are over, blah, blah, blah, and China is the way to go? Maybe it will be noticed the third time ... Your Great Chinese Friends pointing out that they are helpless when the US Federal Reserve does some things:
"China’s foreign reserve pile fell to $3.89 trillion from $3.99 trillion at the end of June. Guan Tao, head of China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange’s balance-of-payments department, cited the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy as a main factor contributing to the decline, adding there were no risks or problems."
The other thing is that you shouldn't be so excited about European joining a Chinese-led bank. Do you actually have any understanding about ownership in such banks? Western countries are involved in all sorts of Asian banks. Take, for example the Asian Development Bank: the USA is the 2nd largest shareholder in that and has probably 2.5 times as many shares as China. (Oh, like the new AIIB that has caused you so much unexplained excitement, that one too doesn't have much use for African countries.)
When US started printing their way out of their own wall street induced malaise..China started thinking about plan B....and that meant reducing any more purchase of US tbills and tbonds...
And what is that Plan B? Do you ever make any attempt to understand what you read? (a) China is the biggest holder of all that US paper. Do you think that those "cash reserves" are actually in little green bits, with pictures of dead presidents, in some vault? (b) Did you read Chinese guy in charge of all that telling folks not to worry that there had been some uncontrollable reduction? (c) This one is more subtle, and it might take you a year or so to understand: China hold so much US paper that the last thing it wants (or needs) to see is the US $ go down!
and investing that money in their own companies quest for internationalisation and of course lending more and more to other countries..they also have been working towards making yuan a global currency..
I thought gave you a very simple exercise: go down the road, anywhere in Kenya, and look for who's peddling yuan. Then report back.
When it come to China effect on Africa economy..evidence is there for all to see...
Where is it for us to see? Please help.
China pays a premium for our raw materials
(a) What do you consider "premium? (b) In what currency do they pay?
and their investment in Africa infrastructure has pretty much paid off.
Really? Where and how? Kenya is up to the eyeballs in Chinese debt (interest + shylock-rate insurance). How many kilometres of railway are "paying off"?
WB is a failed institution that nobody should take seriously. Ask their IFC branch what mess they did with RVR concession that gok gave them to oversee!!!!!!!!!!!!
I don't see how the World Bank has suddenly got involved in my main message that only Africans will save Africa. But perhaps you can explain.
As regards RVR, I would look well before that. This is a repeat:
The EAC + friends got some Japanese consultant to advice them. What the guy had to say: "Your obsession with gauge and new things is misplaced. You need to focus on maintenance. When you manage (at high cost) to replace your old, narrow-gauge lines with new standard-gauge lines, you will be running at lower speeds and hauling less tonnage than we do with older, refurbished narrow-gauge lines."
And the answer? Folks are still waiting.
..the country is so complicated to have your little priorities (starvation, health)...perhaps next time you need to understand how we make our budget as a country...
Don't worry about me; I'll manage. But is there any chance that folks there could turn my "little priorities" into "big priorities"?
Anyways ...
Instead of devoting so much space to jerking-off about China, why don't you, right here, explain to me what I "need to understand" about your "budget as a country". Right here, and right now. Start with:
(a) The health of Kenyan children under five, especially the problems related to nutrition. (The cost of providing proper nutrition at that age is far less than the final costs of failing to do so.)
(b) The lack of something as simple as clean water for a large chunk of the population. (How hard can that be? And does anyone care about the final costs?)
(c) Why folks are literally dying from shit all over the place?
China has been there and done recently ..we can do it if we learn from them.
So, what are you learning from China? One of the first things all those Asians did was to figure out how to feed themselves. In Africa, folks are dying like flies from just about everything while those with any signs of life are wanking over Chinese "saviours". Talk about Mission Impossible!
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First, a simple advice, some of us have jobs,careers and work to do so please learn to SUMMARIZE your points in simple paragraphs. These posts are not the end of the world. SUMMARIZE. Unless you of course have to research, research, google, google and then spawn threads..from a single response.
Now let examine some facts. China economy is world biggest. China is world largest consumer and producer of goods and services. China has the world largest forex reserve. China has been financing the US(through buying their debts) although this has been reducing yearly after US messed up with QE.
China has been working on making yuan a freely exchangeable currency that will replace the dollar. The latest on that front was last year..when China allowed more spread for yuan to swing and the pursuit by China for currency swaps. Of course chinese are extra cautions. The condition for switch off from dollar to US are near ready...whatever little appreciation the USD is having..is most likely related troubles in EU..not in super strong China.
What folks are demanding of the yuan is simple...making it freely tradeable like USD...it questions of People Bank of China just making that decision..and voila the END OF USD. It happened before for British Pound.
Now to Africa...countries that have worked closely with China..have grown..at double digit...the last decade of growth in Africa..is SINGULARLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO CHINA. Start with Ethiopia, Angola,Zambia and even Kenya.
As regards to your little priorities..am glad to report that all indicators in health and food security have been consistently good for a generation now...both in raw and aggregrate...mortality is failing down (all forms), life expectancy is up, poverty down...
A lot need to be done...but we cannot stop the more than 100 major functions of gov..to focus on 2.
Some people need digital tv others need food...some folks need broadband internet..others need medicine...the gov through parliament has to set the priorities in the budget.
If you want to be part of budget making...send your public participation contributions [ where you'll find others with disparate needs] or well join parliament.
Do not attempt to over-simply gov, development and complex issues. Even the simplest family has to make tough choices including going hungry so they can send a kid to school or even postponing hospitalization so they can pay dowry. You cannot advice them to stop all that..and focus on FOOD AND HEALTH.
I see you're 10 yrs late. The world is rapidly changing and leaving your US of the yore behind. Isn't that why we Europe is joining China led bank and have open currency swaps. The day when US controlled world economy is over. China has your speak is world biggest economy (PPP) and world biggest consumer and producers of goods and services..therefore you might have to do a lot of updating
You really ought to make an effort to understand some of the things that you read here and there. This stringing-together of random bits, from all over the place, is quite shabby. And you also need to get over obsession with sheer size; it is such mindlessness, without regard to quality, that explains much of Africa's sad story today.
As usual, it looks like I will have to whack you over the head, several times, with facts, before you wake up. You will, as usual, dodge by claiming that it's "nit-picking".
Start here:
"In the last 10 months, the USA dollar has risen so sharply that it is now approaching 12-year highs. The rest of the world is wailing about their dollar-denominated purchases---sorry, most still don't take your yuan---and everyone is scrambling, frantically, for dollars."
Do you see RMB anywhere in that picture, other the implication that nobody is chasing after yuan? Who are all these people you think are chasing after RMB? For what would they be doing that? Weka information hapa hapa.
The days of the US controlling the world economy are over, blah, blah, blah, and China is the way to go? Maybe it will be noticed the third time ... Your Great Chinese Friends pointing out that they are helpless when the US Federal Reserve does some things:
"China’s foreign reserve pile fell to $3.89 trillion from $3.99 trillion at the end of June. Guan Tao, head of China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange’s balance-of-payments department, cited the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy as a main factor contributing to the decline, adding there were no risks or problems."
The other thing is that you shouldn't be so excited about European joining a Chinese-led bank. Do you actually have any understanding about ownership in such banks? Western countries are involved in all sorts of Asian banks. Take, for example the Asian Development Bank: the USA is the 2nd largest shareholder in that and has probably 2.5 times as many shares as China. (Oh, like the new AIIB that has caused you so much unexplained excitement, that one too doesn't have much use for African countries.)
When US started printing their way out of their own wall street induced malaise..China started thinking about plan B....and that meant reducing any more purchase of US tbills and tbonds...
And what is that Plan B? Do you ever make any attempt to understand what you read? (a) China is the biggest holder of all that US paper. Do you think that those "cash reserves" are actually in little green bits, with pictures of dead presidents, in some vault? (b) Did you read Chinese guy in charge of all that telling folks not to worry that there had been some uncontrollable reduction? (c) This one is more subtle, and it might take you a year or so to understand: China hold so much US paper that the last thing it wants (or needs) to see is the US $ go down!
and investing that money in their own companies quest for internationalisation and of course lending more and more to other countries..they also have been working towards making yuan a global currency..
I thought gave you a very simple exercise: go down the road, anywhere in Kenya, and look for who's peddling yuan. Then report back.
When it come to China effect on Africa economy..evidence is there for all to see...
Where is it for us to see? Please help.
China pays a premium for our raw materials
(a) What do you consider "premium? (b) In what currency do they pay?
and their investment in Africa infrastructure has pretty much paid off.
Really? Where and how? Kenya is up to the eyeballs in Chinese debt (interest + shylock-rate insurance). How many kilometres of railway are "paying off"?
WB is a failed institution that nobody should take seriously. Ask their IFC branch what mess they did with RVR concession that gok gave them to oversee!!!!!!!!!!!!
I don't see how the World Bank has suddenly got involved in my main message that only Africans will save Africa. But perhaps you can explain.
As regards RVR, I would look well before that. This is a repeat:
The EAC + friends got some Japanese consultant to advice them. What the guy had to say: "Your obsession with gauge and new things is misplaced. You need to focus on maintenance. When you manage (at high cost) to replace your old, narrow-gauge lines with new standard-gauge lines, you will be running at lower speeds and hauling less tonnage than we do with older, refurbished narrow-gauge lines."
And the answer? Folks are still waiting.
..the country is so complicated to have your little priorities (starvation, health)...perhaps next time you need to understand how we make our budget as a country...
Don't worry about me; I'll manage. But is there any chance that folks there could turn my "little priorities" into "big priorities"?
Anyways ...
Instead of devoting so much space to jerking-off about China, why don't you, right here, explain to me what I "need to understand" about your "budget as a country". Right here, and right now. Start with:
(a) The health of Kenyan children under five, especially the problems related to nutrition. (The cost of providing proper nutrition at that age is far less than the final costs of failing to do so.)
(b) The lack of something as simple as clean water for a large chunk of the population. (How hard can that be? And does anyone care about the final costs?)
(c) Why folks are literally dying from shit all over the place?
China has been there and done recently ..we can do it if we learn from them.
So, what are you learning from China? One of the first things all those Asians did was to figure out how to feed themselves. In Africa, folks are dying like flies from just about everything while those with any signs of life are wanking over Chinese "saviours". Talk about Mission Impossible!
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Great post RVP! Last year when I was in Taipei. I could not access this site, but could access nipate.com. I don't think Nipate.org is accessible in every country ... I am not a mod .. but mods should be advising Veri ...
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I think China-US will continue to be a symbiotic relationship for the foreseeable future. They are mutually beneficial to each other. China needs the US consumer. The US is addicted to cheap Chinese goods. At the end of the day, the rich capitalist decides who is left standing.
The foreign reserves discussion led me to google about what the foreign reserve is. What it means. What they can do with it. I have always had the layman's view of it as hordes of cash available to serikali to do with it as it feels. I found this article below enlightening.
BEIJING (Caixin Online) — China’s foreign exchange reserves rose to $3.948 trillion at the end of the first quarter. The figure in 1978 was $167 million, and in November 1996 it surpassed $100 billion for the first time. The change has been amazing.
There have been many thoughts about how we in China can make use of the forex reserve, ranging from buying assets abroad to using it as leverage in diplomatic talks. What needs emphasizing is that the reserve is not a free buffet. It corresponds to the central bank’s debt in yuan and costs dearly to maintain.
In a traditional sense, the forex reserve is meant to serve as a buffer in times of emergency and is to be used for repayment of external debt. The basic requirement for its investment is guaranteeing the safety of the principal rather than pursuing high yields. This is true for even the part of forex reserve in excess of the amount required for ensuring its traditional purposes are met.
Also, it is important to know that 40% of the forex reserve came through operations under the capital account. In other words, about $1.6 trillion of the reserve, be it hot money or foreign direct investment, flew into China because the investors were betting on the country’s positive outlook.
If these investors want to take their investments out of the country, the government can take measures to slow the exit of capital, but there is no legal way to stop it. Granted, the odds are extremely low that all foreign investments would leave the country, especially if China sticks to the path of reform and opening up.
The other 60% of the reserve, which resulted from operations under the current account, correspond to the debt owed to companies and individuals who sold their forex holdings to banks. The reason they did not hold the money in foreign currencies is that investing in yuan is currently more profitable. Also, there is a lack of channels for private investors to invest overseas. That is why China’s forex investments are primarily conducted by the forex administrator.
These are the reasons the government cannot simply dish out the forex reserve to whoever wants a piece of it.
How can the central bank manage the forex reserve? It can learn lessons from foreign countries. There is enough diversified data about how sovereign funds operate around the world. The essence is to introduce a corporate structure, improve management and bring in a professional investment team with incentives that encourage competition.
Also, the evaluation of investment returns needs to be done over the long term. Transparency is needed and so is a mechanism for public supervision. Temasek Holdings, Singapore’s sovereign-wealth fund, is a successful example. It went through many twists and turns when it was young, but has been able to achieve a lot by adhering to market-oriented practices. Recent figures show that its return on equity over the past 39 years was 16% a year.
The central bank’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) was established in 1979. The employees of its forex management department are the same people that work for the central bank’s forex businesses center. Both establishments are responsible for the management of the forex reserve.
They are governed the way a government-affiliated institution is, which allows for more flexibility in management compared with a government agency. Foreign nationals occupy some executive positions, and a lot of effort has been made to allocate the investments of forex reserve according to market demands. This is progress that should be recognized.
But there are limits as well. A government-affiliated institution is not a real company. It can never establish an efficient corporate governance structure as a real company, and its incentive mechanism will never be as effective.
There are not enough people managing the forex reserve. Foreign experience shows that every employee in big, global investment institutions manage on average $500 million to $800 million worth of assets. There are slightly more than 500 people on SAFE’s forex reserve management team. That means every one of them oversees about $8 billion worth of assets.
Given the huge size of China’s forex reserve, it is difficult for one or two companies to manage it alone. What we can do is set up several entities like China Investment Corp. (CIC) under SAFE, giving them different mandates and positioning them differently in terms of investment targets, areas and assets.
We can also inject capital into the CIC to enable it to set up subsidiary institutions that can compete with each other. Once these institutions are established, their rights and liabilities should be set out clear so whoever makes investment decisions is truly responsible for them and whoever shoulders the risk gets the reward. Competition between institutions should be encouraged. More importantly, there should be a mechanism for accountability to avoid moral hazard.
In the long run, the ultimate solution is to steadily push forward exchange-rate reform so the private sector can hold onto forex. Real, strong investors can only emerge from the public and from competition.
The model of Temasek has many lessons to offer, but there is one thing that China cannot copy because Singapore is a city-state whereas China is a huge country facing much more complex governance issues.
Also, the investment efficiency of sovereign-wealth funds can improve, but it can never match that of asset-management companies that win out in fierce market competition. So improving the private sector’s ability to invest and allocate assets globally is the direction China should be headed.
With this as the goal, the way forward can be worked out along the way.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-should-china-buy-with-its-39-trillion-reserves-2014-06-17
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I hope you're not buying into usual US based propaganda that China "DEPEND" on US market. China-US trade at best is 15%of China's international trade (leave alone huge internal trade).China does trade with everyone. 15% with Europe. 20% plus with South Asia. Maybe 10% with India. 2% with Africa. Maybe 10% with South America. 10% with Middle East. Maybe 10% with Eastern Europeans and Russia.Some percentage with Ocenia (Australia and likes).
In short if US blockaded trade with China...Chinese will lose 15% market share....in their international trade..which is sometllhing China can easily intra-china trade in that 1.3B people country.
Everyone is ADDICTED to cheap chinese products.
China is a BEHEMOOTH. A dragon that just starting to grow wings. Those who have seen the figures and projected what dragon will look like..will not waste a minute arguing about the Eagle :)
Behemooth growing at nearly 8%, with per capita still at 10K, now imagine if they double that, tripple that, and finally catch up with typical developed country earning 40-50k per capita.
In 2050...expect China economy to be 5 times more than US. Everyone should be excited because China dragon will lift many people out of poverty. The world economy cannot be sustained by 300M americans and similar number of Europeans and Japanese. You need India and China running the show. The world economy has been stuck at 60-70 trillion dollars.When dragon is done growing and fly the world economy will be spinning 150 trillion or more USD..and there will be enough merry to spread around.
I think China-US will continue to be a symbiotic relationship for the foreseeable future. They are mutually beneficial to each other. China needs the US consumer. The US is addicted to cheap Chinese goods. At the end of the day, the rich capitalist decides who is left standing.
The foreign reserves discussion led me to google about what the foreign reserve is. What it means. What they can do with it. I have always had the layman's view of it as hordes of cash available to serikali to do with it as it feels. I found this article below enlightening.
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I hope you're not buying into usual US based propaganda that China "DEPEND" on US market. China-US trade at best is 15%of China's international trade (leave alone huge internal trade).China does trade with everyone. 15% with Europe. 20% plus with South Asia. Maybe 10% with India. 2% with Africa. Maybe 10% with South America. 10% with Middle East. Maybe 10% with Eastern Europeans and Russia.Some percentage with Ocenia (Australia and likes).
In short if US blockaded trade with China...Chinese will lose 15% market share....in their international trade..which is sometllhing China can easily intra-china trade in that 1.3B people country.
Everyone is ADDICTED to cheap chinese products.
China is a BEHEMOOTH. A dragon that just starting to grow wings. Those who have seen the figures and projected what dragon will look like..will not waste a minute arguing about the Eagle :)
Behemooth growing at nearly 8%, with per capita still at 10K, now imagine if they double that, tripple that, and finally catch up with typical developed country earning 40-50k per capita.
In 2050...expect China economy to be 5 times more than US. Everyone should be excited because China dragon will lift many people out of poverty. The world economy cannot be sustained by 300M americans and similar number of Europeans and Japanese. You need India and China running the show. The world economy has been stuck at 60-70 trillion dollars.When dragon is done growing and fly the world economy will be spinning 150 trillion or more USD..and there will be enough merry to spread around.
I think China-US will continue to be a symbiotic relationship for the foreseeable future. They are mutually beneficial to each other. China needs the US consumer. The US is addicted to cheap Chinese goods. At the end of the day, the rich capitalist decides who is left standing.
The foreign reserves discussion led me to google about what the foreign reserve is. What it means. What they can do with it. I have always had the layman's view of it as hordes of cash available to serikali to do with it as it feels. I found this article below enlightening.
No. I don't buy easily into propaganda. I believe they depend on the US market among others. China needs to export cheap goods and the US is their biggest single market. I think their domestic market is also growing, but they need to export.
A trade war between them benefits no one. While it is debatable who it would hurt more. It's not even remotely about to happen. A few influential US companies also have a sizable market in China.
I am just sharing what I thought sheds some light on foreign reserves, at least for me. Quite a few moving parts it seems.
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It simple...China is largest importer..and the largest exporter..with largest economy..and biggest population..and still growing at staggering rates considering the size of the economy.
China trade with nearly everyone. In kenya we buy about 2B dollars worth of Chinese goods..and export very little to them. The same for many countries.
US if i use the latest stats...export 8% and import 18% of all China trade. That is not a lot. China is not just exporting stuff..it buy lots of US made stuff...US balance of trade with China is not as bad as ours!!!
Yes i want everyone to be happy trading with a bigger china including US, Africa and name them. You want a billion chinese flooding our towns sharing their yuan either as business men, tourist, donors, investors and name it.
Who wouldn't want a nice think like that?
What i do not understand is the double speak from Europeans and Americans..who want Africans not to enjoy the happpiness directly from China...ohoo be wary about China :) really? when they are literally financing you; and you're dying to make deals with them.
No. I don't buy easily into propaganda. I believe they depend on the US market among others. China needs to export cheap goods and the US is their biggest single market. I think their domestic market is also growing, but they need to export.
A trade war between them benefits no one. While it is debatable who it would hurt more. It's not even remotely about to happen. A few influential US companies also have a sizable market in China.
I am just sharing what I thought sheds some light on foreign reserves, at least for me. Quite a few moving parts it seems.