Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on March 04, 2015, 08:56:35 AM
-
Despite our small excitement about generating 5,000MW by 2017....40% of all power/electricity in Africa still comes from RSA with more than 40,000MW!! --mostly from coal
Kenya now generates 2,300MW..electricity access to household..around 32%.
The same case with many other Africa countries.
We need something akin to telcom revolution to change this...and join the developed world.
-
The trick lies in ending the Distribution Monopoly and the Generation Oligopoly.
Kenya should establish a clear enabling environment where any investor can set up, generate and sell electricity. The most untapped resource are the small rivers. GoK and the big investors looking for huge returns find these unattractive. Thus County governments could be persuaded to invest in these.
I know of many places in Pundit's Bomett where small scale dams could generate enough electricity to both supply Bomet and Kericho and earn Ruto's government a steady income. It is not the only county with such unlimited though small possibilities. Nandi, Kakamega and Vihiga have long rivers meandering through their lands to deposit water in Lake Victoria for the ungrateful Arabs. The Yala for example can support multiple HEP stations stretching from Nandi all the way to Nyanza.
Nobody - not even a county government - is going to invest in something that will only enrich other people. Why would my adopted people at the Coast allow their county government to invest in the generation of electricity which they would be forced to sell cheaply only to buy at four times the sale price?
That can change if the county is allowed to own a power distribution company as well. It can then compete with others including KPLC for customers.
It is now ancient technology where a person in Tanzania can buy electricity from a supplier in North Eastern Province. Why then are we shouting about the East African Community when there is no common market involving things that matter. Allowing mama mbogas to cross the border to sell their wares is not what I think of when whole Presidents mention the EA Common Market! I expect to see TANESCO selling electricity in Kenya and KPLC competing for customers in Rwanda. Safaricom should run services in Uganda even as ZANTEL would do in Rwanda. All this should happen without seeking government approval at every step.
In many European countries there is a "Stock Market" for electricity. Prices are indicated and consumers may decide to choose any supplier. It is such that the pressure is on the companies to lower prices. Arrogant raising of prices is a thing of the past. Any smell of collusion ends with a long jail term and confiscation of any "profit" from that along with an earth shattering fine designed to shake the foundations of the perpetrating companies.
On a micro scale, GoK should subsidize individuals seeking to set up alternative energy sources. All solar, Windmill and Biogas equipment to be used in the production of energy should be zero rated (if not yet). There should be no taxes. That means the transporter of the same from the port to the door should be exempted from VAT and other hidden charges. See what zero rating of computers and mobiles did for that industry. When I visited Kenya a year after it had been implemented, there were more advanced mobile phones and laptops, tablets etc than where I had come from.
Lastly, every good idea is ruined by corruption. Park Chung Hee had to resort to draconian measures to slow down the corruption that was derailing his massive economic agenda. To do that meant he had to hit at people close to him. Of course they hit back and eventually shot his wife dead as he addressed a meeting and later himself (by his own intelligence chief). He paid a heavy personal price to earn his place in history as the man who transformed Korea
-
Omollo thanks for mentioning Park Chung Hee. I have never heard of him before. He seems to have had the Moi/Kenyatta approach with a good dose of integrity.
I have always found the factors for sustainable economic growth to be very confounding. Does the infrastructure come first or does it follow demand? Either way, integrity seems like an absolute must.
-
Basically Park Chung Hee was an enlightened Dictator who created the Chinese Model with American money. He used the North Korean "threat" to bleed Washington of money. American money financed infrastructure (to prepare for a possible Soviet Backed North Korean attack). He resorted to stealing American and Western technology and then later improving on it so that the counterfeit became better than the original!
He used local oligarchs and mafia who were wiling to meet his objectives.
It is the same way Pakistan is exploiting Afghanistan to get American cash and pump in to infrastructure. Kenya sold herself cheap over Somalia and South Sudan.
Omollo thanks for mentioning Park Chung Hee. I have never heard of him before. He seems to have had the Moi/Kenyatta approach with a good dose of integrity.
I have always found the factors for sustainable economic growth to be very confounding. Does the infrastructure come first or does it follow demand? Either way, integrity seems like an absolute must.
-
Omollo thanks for mentioning Park Chung Hee. I have never heard of him before.
He was a much rougher version of what Lee Kwan Yew was to Singapore. Detested in his time, but some of his better deeds are now appreciated. He has been forgiven to the extent that his daughter, Park Geun-Hye, is the current president of S. Korea.
-
History can be forgiving to an achiever. Sadly we have no such people in Africa. Perhaps Mugabe and his Land Reform will in future be looked at differently.
Omollo thanks for mentioning Park Chung Hee. I have never heard of him before.
He was a much rougher version of what Lee Kwan Yew was to Singapore. Detested in his time, but some of his better deeds are now appreciated. He has been forgiven to the extent that his daughter, Park Geun-Hye, is the current president of S. Korea.
-
The most untapped resource are the small rivers. GoK and the big investors looking for huge returns find these unattractive. Thus County governments could be persuaded to invest in these.
Generally, we have always been slow to use water as a source of energy. Consider, for example, what watermills did elsewhere in the world for ages.
And you are quite right on the use of rivers for "small power generation"; perhaps there is too much of a focus on "big power generation". Here is an interesting report from a couple of years ago:
" The overall hydropower potential of Kenya, estimated in 1991, amounts to approximately 30,000 GWh/year, representing 6,000 MW of installed capacity. It is also estimated that almost over half the potential is attributable to small rivers."
The potential small hydropower sites are mainly located in the south-west of Kenya (Lake Victoria drainage basin in Nyanza and Western Provinces and adjacent districts of Rift Valley Province); southwest of Mount Kenya – Aberdare Mountains (Central Province, Mt. Kenya adjoining districts of Eastern Province and Laikipia District of Rift Valley Province). The small hydropower potential is concentrated in districts with high population density and high energy demand thus providing favourable conditions for the deployment of small hydropower on a commercial basis.
http://www.smallhydroworld.org/fileadmin/user_upload/pdf/Africa_Eastern/WSHPDR_2013_Kenya.pdf
There are also some interesting projects underway that are not well-publicized but show the type of thing that has quite a bit of potential:
"CCKL is developing a 12MW biomass-fueled, on-grid electricity generation project in Baringo County, Kenya."
http://nairobi.usembassy.gov/cumminsbaringo.html
Beyond electricity, the projects will have a direct effect on employment, incomes, etc.
-
A few years ago...the whole of Africa had less phones than Manhattan island...and more than half of the phones were in Joburg. This has changed thanks to mobile tech. Although power connection has accelerated lately...from mere 12% to 32% in kenya..which is a near 3 fold growth in about 10yrs!!!...we still need to do more.Is there effective demand for electricity to make it profitable for everyone. I say there is pent up demand at personal level. In a typical house in kenya you have several phones, a tv, a radio and of course night lighting...power actors just need to innovate around that..no need sending 3 phase power down there...when little power lines that cost less can meet those demands.
The hard part will be industrialisation...that typically consumes most power everywhere including in RSA...this is the chicken-egg situation....you need cheap reliable power to attract manufacturers....something we cannot achieve without subsidizing.
The way forward is to subsidize power for industrial users...treasury get to pick the tabs...and in process we have more taxes and cheap goods.
Until we kick start manufacturing in big way.....we will not get anywhere.
-
I hear you. Norway achieved self sufficiency and became a net exporter of electricity by tapping the small rivers. Kenya should go the same way but care must be taken to ensure that the environment is not unduly damaged.
I have always wondered why there is no Rivers and Lakes Authority. The mandate which is erroneously ceded to NEMA is theirs. They should be the custodians of Riparian Lands and regulate the usage of water. Only they can grant permission for people living on slopes to cultivate their land subject to anti-soil erosion measures. You will notice that there are seasonal rivers in Eastern - especially Ukambani. These were destroyed when Mzungu sought to destroy Kamba cattle and do away with competition. These rivers are viable if the original forest cover that formed the water catchment is restored. One can see clean shaven hills in Kamba land. That would be the mandate of Rivers and Lakes Authority. I have seen how a similar body has done wonders in Pakistan PAKISTAN WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY (http://www.wapda.gov.pk/default.asp?Authority)
The most untapped resource are the small rivers. GoK and the big investors looking for huge returns find these unattractive. Thus County governments could be persuaded to invest in these.
Generally, we have always been slow to use water as a source of energy. Consider, for example, what watermills did elsewhere in the world for ages.
And you are quite right on the use of rivers for "small power generation"; perhaps there is too much of a focus on "big power generation".
Beyond electricity, the projects will have a direct effect on employment, incomes, etc.
-
Its a business opportunity but solution lies in state liberalizing the sector,current laws are used to lock people out of business,
Without Prejudice.
-
Little is heard these days of this funny idea, but some Kenyans are still making good money in labouring at the Kenya Nuclear Electricity Board:
http://www.nuclear.co.ke/
Supposedly a key part of Vision 3020 2030.
"Nuclear Power Plant by 2022" (That's 7 years from now.)
http://www.nuclear.co.ke/index.php/media-centre/press-releases/320-nuclear-power-plant-by-2022
Sigh.
-
Little is heard these days of this funny idea, but some Kenyans are still making good money in labouring at the Kenya Nuclear Electricity Board:
http://www.nuclear.co.ke/
Supposedly a key part of Vision 3020 2030.
"Nuclear Power Plant by 2022" (That's 7 years from now.)
http://www.nuclear.co.ke/index.php/media-centre/press-releases/320-nuclear-power-plant-by-2022
Sigh.
Having little time to waste, they have a tender for supplies http://www.nuclear.co.ke/images/news/PRE-QUALIFICATION%20OF%20SUPPLIERS-KNEB.pdf (http://www.nuclear.co.ke/images/news/PRE-QUALIFICATION%20OF%20SUPPLIERS-KNEB.pdf).
PR materials. Furniture. Fresh milk. Security guards. Taxi/Car hire. Hotel accomodation services...
-
Omollo thanks for mentioning Park Chung Hee. I have never heard of him before.
He was a much rougher version of what Lee Kwan Yew was to Singapore. Detested in his time, but some of his better deeds are now appreciated. He has been forgiven to the extent that his daughter, Park Geun-Hye, is the current president of S. Korea.
So he was like Kagame in some ways. But somehow got things that people wanted to be produced in his country.
It looks like a lot of these countries don't necessarily have enviable records in terms of human rights, or even corruption to some extent. Yet, there is something they have done, that just can't seem to be done in a black ruled nation. I can't quite put a finger on that. You almost want to go back and compare month by month from the 60s what these folks did that Africans did not.
Is the African culturally defective to be industrialized?
-
So he was like Kagame in some ways.
Far from it. Kagame has done a good job of milking international guilt over the 1994 genocide, but that's about it. The dependency on foreign aid is incredible. Even the laptops-for-toddlers that gave Uhuru his misplaced idea ... Rwanda got theirs for free.
It looks like a lot of these countries don't necessarily have enviable records in terms of human rights, or even corruption to some extent.
I lived in Asia for many years, and I would caution comparisons on corruption. In Singapore, I observed first hand Lee Kwan Yew's hard first: he decided from the very beginning that corruption, however small, would be dealt with swiftly and very harshly. That's how it's been done, and it works.
In South Korea, there is much more corruption than in Singapore, but it's not of the debilitating nature that you have in places like Kenya or Nigeria. A typical example is the Samsung Group making illegal soft loans to its affiliates or bribing a politician to allow it to build a factory where it shouldn't (which factory, of course, adds to employment and GDP), or a politician illegally accepting campaign donations from some industrial type. Otherwise, the kind of corruption we generally think of is almost non-existent.
To get an idea of the attitude towards Kenyan-style corruption, consider this: Roh Moo-Hyun, South Korea's president from 2003-2008 committed suicide in 2009 because some of his family members had been accused of corruption. His suicide note said that he was "deeply ashamed". The corruption charges? I think they included things like borrowed---not stolen!---money to pay for somebody's studies in the USA. And it was his relatives, not him, that did whatever. But he was just the most high-profile one: even in the last 10 years, quite a few major politicians in SK have done "the honourable" thing when accused of corruption. Hard to imagine that happening on The Beloved Continent?
Is the African culturally defective to be industrialized?
An interesting question. Many years ago, I attended a public talk by Lee Kwan Yew, and as the only African present, I wished ... His comments included a few anecdotes that I think he later included in his autobiography. One of them involved his efforts to work with African governments:
Incredible as it might seem, there is a video of Tough-Man Lee weeping in public. The occasion was when Singapore got kicked out of the Malay Federation. Lee thought his tiny country couldn't survive on its own, which is why it had ganged up with Malaysia in the first place. Anyways ... having been kicked out, he thought his best partners might be the "newly free" African countries. So he jumped into a plane and did a little African tour. To cut it short, he thought too many countries were being run by jokers. His exact words were that they were "parodies of countries".
So, what exactly ails Mwafrika? It's certainly not a lack of intelligent people or anything of the like. Nor is it a failure to dream big. But even when people are not finishing each other in "routine tribal clashes" that end up as civil wars---what is S. Sudan all about and does it have to happen?---the results can be seen in Peaceful Kenya (Economic Powerhouse Of East Africa, Growing at 6+%): Vision 2030 is largely a joke. It's as though people think that as long as they set lofty goals and keep repeating them, then all will happen. Not!
To my mind---as I have stated elsewhere---one of the first things African countries need to focus on is real and serious human development. And they should also learn from the history of others ... move beyond East or West always "helping" and start to do for themselves. Look beyond dining out on digging stuff out of the ground to sell to strangers. Try something other than borrowing 1% of GDP and then saying "this will increase our GDP by at least 1%". And, above all, stop blaming others for their situation or expecting others to "develop" them.
Africa actually has all it needs, whether it's stuff in the ground, or land, or the cheap labour that others have used to propel themselves forward. What is lacking are (a) a real vision, not some Vision 3020 2030, and real leadership, not criminal jokers.
To be continued ...
-
Interesting story on Lee Kuan Yew. I am just learning things that had existed only in my blind spot. So it looks like Lee Kuan Yew realized a long time ago that the African leader dances to a different tune https://archive.org/details/TheCrisisOfLeadershipInAfricaTheObservationsOfLeeKwanYew (https://archive.org/details/TheCrisisOfLeadershipInAfricaTheObservationsOfLeeKwanYew)
-
Interesting story on Lee Kuan Yew. I am just learning things that had existed only in my blind spot. So it looks like Lee Kuan Yew realized a long time ago that the African leader dances to a different tune https://archive.org/details/TheCrisisOfLeadershipInAfricaTheObservationsOfLeeKwanYew (https://archive.org/details/TheCrisisOfLeadershipInAfricaTheObservationsOfLeeKwanYew)
A very interesting audio. Thanks for posting it, although it's a bit depressing to be reminded of how early the rot set in on The Beloved Continent. (It is focused on Nigeria and Ghana, but Lee has even "funnier" stories about a couple of other countries.)
Africa's tragedy is about a failure in leadership and a failure to learn. Other than that, little else is lacking. Consider this: even with 50+ years of "African experience", the newest African country---S. Sudan, with all its oil and after years of mayhem---has decided to go the "traditional" way: Rebels vs. Government. We all know how that one always ends.
Let's reflect on this one for a minute: The President of Kenya gets up in public and tells his citizens that his own office is the leader in national corruption. Naturally, the citizens have expectations---problem identified, then problem solved. His Excellency says time's up! And then?
-
I doubt corruption and failed leadership is as important as Africa's population explosion. Look at south Korea...25M folks in 1960...and now mere 50M people. Look at kenya...6M folks....and 44M now...and that despite high mortality along the way. China 500M in 60s...1.3b now.
On average you can see most south asia have merely doubled their population in 50yrs...while we have on average grown 7-8 times!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You can't develop either at micro (family) or macro level when you're busy popping out kids every day.
If you look at kenya growth rates...from 1960s to 1980....it was nearly toe to toe with South Korea[kenya was growing at double digit for most of 70s]...but of course we were popping more kids along the way.
It easy to blame leadership and politician..but look at kenya...where we have been changing leaders....the problem is beyond our politician...it is with mwafrika...taking responsibility.
There are few african countries that have no leadership or corruption issues...Namibia, Botswana, Mauritius, Seychelles and name them...but are they really developed? I am talking about the natives of those countries..not whites or indians or others running the show.
For me Africa will turn the tide when they manage to control their population explosion.
-
Given this South Korea[or any asian tiger] versus Kenya analogy will be harped on severally; Let us look at the data.
1960-1990--South Korea average 8 percent GDP growth per year..10% till 1972..world oil price shocks reduce it 7%..and pick up in mid 80s..back 10%.
1960-1990--Kenya economy averages 7%...until the 80s..where the average i think is 6%.
The same is true for most of Asia tigers. So kenya was not doing badly at all.
The difference...per capita income btw Kenya and asia tigers....we were breeding like rats...and they were siring 1 or 2 kids...so their per capita was rising through the roof...ours was stuck there or even regressing.
And the in 90s till 2002...we completely lost it with mega looting and IMF/WB sanctions..while South Korea kept the tempo growing at 10% or about.
Right now we have a great opportunity to replicate Asian tigers model...because we are now growing...while number of kids per woman has dropped to 3-4...and will continue to drop...so household now have more money feeding less mouths.
-
I think this is best dealt with under some bilateral agreement (Gov - Gov).
Little is heard these days of this funny idea, but some Kenyans are still making good money in labouring at the Kenya Nuclear Electricity Board:
http://www.nuclear.co.ke/
Supposedly a key part of Vision 3020 2030.
"Nuclear Power Plant by 2022" (That's 7 years from now.)
http://www.nuclear.co.ke/index.php/media-centre/press-releases/320-nuclear-power-plant-by-2022
Sigh.
Having little time to waste, they have a tender for supplies http://www.nuclear.co.ke/images/news/PRE-QUALIFICATION%20OF%20SUPPLIERS-KNEB.pdf (http://www.nuclear.co.ke/images/news/PRE-QUALIFICATION%20OF%20SUPPLIERS-KNEB.pdf).
PR materials. Furniture. Fresh milk. Security guards. Taxi/Car hire. Hotel accomodation services...
-
Pay attention to the money the US was pouring in to Korea around the same time. Count everything from Military aid, to US money used in Korea on American soldiers stationed there. Include infrastructure and other facilities constructed by the US in Korea for US troops and part of the US defense. A number of Nuclear Plants (initially top secret) were constructed under these arrangements.
Kenya did not get 1% of what the US expended in and on Korea.
One can compare Korea, Kenya and the Philippines. Population wise, Kenya and the Philippines can be weighed together. However American investment and in-country expenditure is not comparable.
Given this South Korea[or any asian tiger] versus Kenya analogy will be harped on severally; Let us look at the data.
1960-1990--South Korea average 8 percent GDP growth per year..10% till 1972..world oil price shocks reduce it 7%..and pick up in mid 80s..back 10%.
1960-1990--Kenya economy averages 7%...until the 80s..where the average i think is 6%.
The same is true for most of Asia tigers. So kenya was not doing badly at all.
The difference...per capita income btw Kenya and asia tigers....we were breeding like rats...and they were siring 1 or 2 kids...so their per capita was rising through the roof...ours was stuck there or even regressing.
And the in 90s till 2002...we completely lost it with mega looting and IMF/WB sanctions..while South Korea kept the tempo growing at 10% or about.
Right now we have a great opportunity to replicate Asian tigers model...because we are now growing...while number of kids per woman has dropped to 3-4...and will continue to drop...so household now have more money feeding less mouths.
-
This should help
[pdf]http://politics.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/2800/sisson.pdf[/pdf]
-
Pay attention to the money the US was pouring in to Korea around the same time. Count everything from Military aid, to US money used in Korea on American soldiers stationed there. Include infrastructure and other facilities constructed by the US in Korea for US troops and part of the US defense. A number of Nuclear Plants (initially top secret) were constructed under these arrangements.
Omollo: I used to live in Seoul, and I am just learning some things here. I highly doubt that US military aid contributed much to Korea's economic growth; but I am open to learning. Are you able to direct me to some relevant data?
I am clearer on the infrastructure question, because I have actually travelled around Korea and taken a look at some of these bases. Exactly what worthwhile infrastructure are you talking about? Consider, for example, that the most built-up area is the Seoul area and that accounts for about half of Korea's population. The US 8th Army in fact has its headquarters there. Now, what infrastructure did the US build there? We can then work around the country and consider the same question.
I have to admit that I have never looked deeply into the matter of power generation in Korea, so this one of secret nuclear power plants is new to me. Where are they located? (I'm trying to imagine where in Korea someone could hide a secret nuclear power plant.) As far as I know Korea has one old plant from the 1970s and a whole bunch more from the 1980s on, but there has never been anything secret about those.
(SK did start a nuclear weapons program in the 1970s, but it was hardly a secret, and far from being an arrangement with the USA, the USA quickly pressured it to drop the program.)
-
Interesting..so population rise more under dictatorship than in a democrcay?
This should help
[pdf]http://politics.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/2800/sisson.pdf[/pdf]
-
The only difference btw asian tigers that grew so fast..and us...is population increase and therefore per capita incomes.
Pay attention to the money the US was pouring in to Korea around the same time. Count everything from Military aid, to US money used in Korea on American soldiers stationed there. Include infrastructure and other facilities constructed by the US in Korea for US troops and part of the US defense. A number of Nuclear Plants (initially top secret) were constructed under these arrangements.
Kenya did not get 1% of what the US expended in and on Korea.
One can compare Korea, Kenya and the Philippines. Population wise, Kenya and the Philippines can be weighed together. However American investment and in-country expenditure is not comparable.
-
The only difference btw asian tigers that grew so fast..and us...is population increase and therefore per capita incomes.
Not really. Take a look at raw GDP growth, instead of per capita, and compare the factors.
Kenya: 1965 - about $1 billion, 2015 - about $50 billion
S. Korea: 1965 - about $3 billion, 2015 - about $1.2 trillion
-
I would not call what the US spent in Korea as Aid. One had over 40K soldiers and a huge amount spent on them and their facilities inside Korea. Then one needed for example enough electricity and went ahead to put up the same. Certain roads were needed by the US army and up they went.
The US military started working with certain contractors to develop various technologies that could not defensively be done back home. You get the drift.
But there was Park. He knew the Americans needed South Korea and could not abandon it. So he would whip up the "Communist" threat and present the bill. He demanded certain technology arguing (falsely) that the Soviets had handed them to the North and got it.
The difference is that the US set the agenda on what Kenya would receive in "aid": However Park Chung Hee set the agenda on what the US would grant Korea.
The only difference btw asian tigers that grew so fast..and us...is population increase and therefore per capita incomes.
Pay attention to the money the US was pouring in to Korea around the same time. Count everything from Military aid, to US money used in Korea on American soldiers stationed there. Include infrastructure and other facilities constructed by the US in Korea for US troops and part of the US defense. A number of Nuclear Plants (initially top secret) were constructed under these arrangements.
Kenya did not get 1% of what the US expended in and on Korea.
One can compare Korea, Kenya and the Philippines. Population wise, Kenya and the Philippines can be weighed together. However American investment and in-country expenditure is not comparable.
-
Then one needed for example enough electricity and went ahead to put up the same. Certain roads were needed by the US army and up they went.
Which power plants were those? Which roads?
-
I'd have to check. Korea has over 30 Nuclear Reactors (some secret).
The only difference btw asian tigers that grew so fast..and us...is population increase and therefore per capita incomes.
Pay attention to the money the US was pouring in to Korea around the same time. Count everything from Military aid, to US money used in Korea on American soldiers stationed there. Include infrastructure and other facilities constructed by the US in Korea for US troops and part of the US defense. A number of Nuclear Plants (initially top secret) were constructed under these arrangements.
Kenya did not get 1% of what the US expended in and on Korea.
One can compare Korea, Kenya and the Philippines. Population wise, Kenya and the Philippines can be weighed together. However American investment and in-country expenditure is not comparable.
Then one needed for example enough electricity and went ahead to put up the same. Certain roads were needed by the US army and up they went.
Which power plants were those? Which roads?
Then one needed for example enough electricity and went ahead to put up the same. Certain roads were needed by the US army and up they went.
Which power plants were those? Which roads?
-
I'd have to check. Korea has over 30 Nuclear Reactors (some secret).
Over 30? Wow. If you are talking about real power plants (and not including well-known tinker-toy facilities in research labs), then that will probably come as news to them. Anyway, check and let me know what you come up with. Of course, you could always say that they are top secret. :D Like I said, I have a hard time imagining where in SK one could hide such things.
Generally, I'm intrigued with the implication that the US military built electrical power plants and roads that did the general Korean populace some good. That is why I asked a very specific question: "which power plants, which roads"? Feel free to add any other infrastructure that you have in mind.
You might want to consider the locations of US military bases in SK, their sizes, and their history.
-
Actually I do not need to shock the South Koreans. They have publicly admitted to having 23 Plants. The official policy was that they would by 2013 have 31 reactors operational. Contracts were issued for that much. This was scaled down following a counterfeit parts scandal where certain companies had falsified certificates and provided inferior parts for installation. A number of reactors that were affected had to go offline as repairs were carried.
I know that Korea then, reacting to a very strong anti-nuclear movement scaled down the plans. The Nuclear accident in Japan also affected not just South Korea but many other countries in the region with plans for Nuclear energy. I do not have the exact number of the contracts that were actually carried out
Now I know what is bothering you is the idea that the US may have had a role in the rapid development of South Korea. This sadly is the case. As I have said, the same conditions existed in the Philippines under Marcos but the country did not benefit from it. Social Economic Historians largely attribute the exception to Park Chung Hee. I would say he established a strong foundation.
Korea was also timely in instituting democracy. This locked in the gains made under the Enlightened Dictatorship.
On secret Nuclear plants: If indeed you have been to South Korea then you know that the country peaceful as it looks is in a constant state of war preparedness. I cannot say I have seen the secret reactors but it is what one would call "common knowledge" or a badly kept secret. Seoul is within minutes of a suicidal North Korean match. But for argument's sake you can say there are no such reactors dedicated for US defense purposes in Korea.
I'd have to check. Korea has over 30 Nuclear Reactors (some secret).
Over 30? Wow. That will probably come as news to them. Anyway, check and let me know what you come up with. Of course, you could always say that they are top secret. :D Like I said, I have a hard time imagining where in SK one could hide such things.
Generally, I'm intrigued with the implication that the US military built electrical power plants and roads that did the general Korean populace some good. That is why I asked "which power plants, which roads"? Feel free to add any other infrastructure that you have in mind.
You might want to consider the location of US military bases in SK, their sizes, and their history.
-
They grew consistently at nearly 10% for 50yrs...we grow at 7% and then down to 3% then lately 4%...if you add the power of compounding you'll be able understand the difference in total GDP.
My point is initially when we were growing at around 6-7% till 1990s..they were growing at 10%...which is not so much difference..however if you look at the per capita difference then..it staggering.
Not really. Take a look at raw GDP growth, instead of per capita, and compare the factors.
Kenya: 1965 - about $1 billion, 2015 - about $50 billion
S. Korea: 1965 - about $3 billion, 2015 - about $1.2 trillion
-
Now I know what is bothering you is the idea that the US may have had a role in the rapid development of South Korea. This sadly is the case.
No, no, no. That's not what's bothering me. What generally bothers me is when people insist on assertions without the backing facts. For example, you claimed electricity, roads, and other infrastructure. I asked which ones and where, and I did not get an answer. I'd be more interested in concrete arguments, in light of what we actually know of SK's economic history.
On secret Nuclear plants: If indeed you have been to South Korea then you know that the country peaceful as it looks is in a constant state of war preparedness. I cannot say I have seen the secret reactors but it is what one would call "common knowledge" or a badly kept secret. Seoul is within minutes of a suicidal North Korean match. But for argument's sake you can say there are no such reactors dedicated for US defense purposes in Korea.
Common knowledge where and to whom? Are you able to provide anything to support that claim? And, as I asked, where could they possibly be hidden? What does the "common knowledge" say on that one? (I asked that question for a very specific reason.)
Nor do I see what being "constant state of war preparedness" has to do with secret nuclear plants. Is the idea that the plants are producing nuclear weapons or material for them? First, I don't think you are aware of South Koreans' attitudes to their country producing nuclear weapons, and it is a matter that is constantly discussed. Second, and more importantly, SK already had US nuclear weapons on its territory but asked that they be withdrawn (over 20 years ago). Third, if SK thought it would ever require the use of nuclear weapons, it would simply ask the USA to bring them back, and in recent years there has been some talk in that direction.
SK has absolutely no reason to develop nuclear weapons on its own. The reason for that is that, by mutual agreement, even today the SK military remains under US command. If SK has to go to war, the decisions, including what is required, will come from Washington.
-
It is not so hard. You'll get a response in a few days.
For the record, I have exclusively addressed myself to Nuclear Electric Power and have not even remotely imagined nuclear weapons.
Now I know what is bothering you is the idea that the US may have had a role in the rapid development of South Korea. This sadly is the case.
No, no, no. That's not what's bothering me. What generally bothers me is when people insist on assertions without the backing facts. For example, you claimed electricity, roads, and other infrastructure. I asked which ones and where, and I did not get an answer. I'd be more interested in concrete arguments, in light of what we actually know of SK's economic history.
On secret Nuclear plants: If indeed you have been to South Korea then you know that the country peaceful as it looks is in a constant state of war preparedness. I cannot say I have seen the secret reactors but it is what one would call "common knowledge" or a badly kept secret. Seoul is within minutes of a suicidal North Korean match. But for argument's sake you can say there are no such reactors dedicated for US defense purposes in Korea.
Common knowledge where and to whom? Are you able to provide anything to support that claim? And, as I asked, where could they possibly be hidden? What does the "common knowledge" say on that one? (I asked that question for a very specific reason.)
Nor do I see what being "constant state of war preparedness" has to do with secret nuclear plants. Is the idea that the plants are producing nuclear weapons or material for them? First, I don't think you are aware of South Koreans' attitudes to their country producing nuclear weapons, and it is a matter that is constantly discussed. Second, and more importantly, SK already had US nuclear weapons on its territory but asked that they be withdrawn (over 20 years ago). Third, if SK thought it would ever require the use of nuclear weapons, it would simply ask the USA to bring them back, and in recent years there has been some talk in that direction.
SK has absolutely no reason to develop nuclear weapons on its own. The reason for that is that, by mutual agreement, even today the SK military remains under US command. If SK has to go to war, the decisions, including what is required, will come from Washington.
-
It is not so hard. You'll get a response in a few days.
For the record, I have exclusively addressed myself to Nuclear Electric Power and have not even remotely imagined nuclear weapons.
Sorry, I was trying to make a connection between "the country peaceful as it looks is in a constant state of war preparedness" and "But for argument's sake you can say there are no such reactors dedicated for US defense purposes in Korea". So, I take it that there are secret "Nuclear Electric Power" plants that are for US defense purposes? Intriguing.
Anyway, I'm keen to see what you come up with "in a few days". I have a pretty good idea of where the US bases are, their sizes, and their history. Why they would need secret nuclear power plants is not clear. I also await your theories on where these secret plants could possibly be located and how they have benefited Koreans.
-
Korea was also timely in instituting democracy.
Point. One of the most amazing things in Kenya is that the country decided that there needed to be limits on presidential terms but then also decided that the counting would not include any of Moi's previous 14 (or whatever) years!
I like the way the Koreans went: one term, 5 years, no exceptions. And no funny business about "the counting starts now". I sometimes wonder what 2007-2008 would have been like had Kibaki not been at it again ...
-
Moon Ki
I don't know how to formulate it. A hint may help: The entire Korean War was a UN mission. There was / is a civilian arm to the mission.
On my remarks below (quoted): Electric power is not necessarily for pure peaceful purposes as you already know. SK has almost no other sources of electricity other than the huge dependency on Nuclear power. So it follows that a large army in the country would need a steady supply of power. Remember we are talking about a country that was at the front line of the not so cold war bordering two Communist countries that had persecuted the Korean war - China and USSR. Until today, South Korean forces would fall under United States command should the war - which has technically never ended - resume.
Between 1953 - 1980s, SK was a net recipient of military and economic aid from the US. It goes without saying that most of this went towards the construction and modernization of infrastructure. SK's highway network is a replica of the US highway system - largely put up with American cash.
On secret plants, we can just drop it because I simply passed on information that came my way by virtue of my short stint in the region. It won't be secret if it could be backed by public documentation. But you can apply some imagination. The enemy (NK) is a grenade throw away and one can only imagine any attack would target power plants in the first wave of attack. At least the security preparedness I was privy to made that assumption.
Am off. Baadaye
It is not so hard. You'll get a response in a few days.
For the record, I have exclusively addressed myself to Nuclear Electric Power and have not even remotely imagined nuclear weapons.
Sorry, I was trying to make a connection between "the country peaceful as it looks is in a constant state of war preparedness" and "But for argument's sake you can say there are no such reactors dedicated for US defense purposes in Korea". So, I take it that there are secret "Nuclear Electric Power" plants that are for US defense purposes? Intriguing.
Anyway, I'm keen to see what you come up with "in a few days". I have a pretty good idea of where the US bases are, their sizes, and their history. Why they would need secret nuclear power plants is not clear. I also await your theories of where these secret plants could possibly be located.
-
It is the High court that came up with that. The so called non-retroactive powers of the law. Kibaki could have easily exploited the same to stay even though the new constitution attempted to seal the loophole.
That said, there are clear economic benefits from enlightened dictatorship. However to preserve the same and build upon it, one needs to democratize as soon as possible. Otherwise the same studies have shown a clear decline in event of a prolonged dictatorship.
The countries studied are Taiwan, South Korea, Chile, Argentina...
Korea was also timely in instituting democracy.
Point. One of the most amazing things in Kenya is that the country decided that there needed to be limits on presidential terms but then also decided that the counting would not include any of Moi's previous 14 (or whatever) years!
I like the way the Koreans went: one term, 5 years, no exceptions. And no funny business about "the counting starts now". I sometimes wonder what 2007-2008 would have been like had Kibaki not been at it again ...
-
On my remarks below (quoted): Electric power is not necessarily for pure peaceful purposes as you already know. SK has almost no other sources of electricity other than the huge dependency on Nuclear power. So it follows that a large army in the country would need a steady supply of power.
(1) Your basic claim was that the USA had built power plants (secret!), roads, and other infrastructure that had somehow helped propel the Korean economy. I asked "which ones and where". I have yet to get a good answer.
(2) By the time Korea really got into nuclear power, most of the US military was long gone.
(3) Forget the "it follows". Have you actually looked at the concrete facts in relation to when the USA military presence was at its highest in Korea?
(4) "SK has almost no other sources of electricity other than the huge dependency on Nuclear power"
- (i) Last I checked it did have other big sources? What is your data?
- (ii) What does that have to do with secret power plants (whether or not built by the Americans)? Just about everything about the nuclear electric-power plants that do the job is public knowledge
Between 1953 - 1980s, SK was a net recipient of military and economic aid from the US. It goes without saying that most of this went towards the construction and modernization of infrastructure. SK's highway network is a replica of the US highway system - largely put up with American cash.
Interesting. First, it was about the US military building roads and power plants and infrastructure, and now it's just "American cash" ... But we need not quibble over that. Let's deal with concrete facts:
I have a pretty good idea of the major road networks in SK. Which parts do you have in mind? Once you identify particular highways, we can look at the facts of who did what and with whose money. Let's start with Seoul. Then we can move to the other major cities and the interconnections between.
On secret plants, we can just drop it because I simply passed on information that came my way by virtue of my short stint in the region. It won't be secret if it could be backed by public documentation. But you can apply some imagination. The enemy (NK) is a grenade throw away and one can only imagine any attack would target power plants in the first wave of attack. At least the security preparedness I was privy to made that assumption.
I wasn't asking for "public documentation". I was merely looking for something beyond "Omollo stated it on Nipate; so there!". I was asking for some very basic information:
(a) Why on earth would the US military need secret nuclear power plants in SK?
(b) What exactly have these secret plants contributed to the Korean economy?
(c) Where on earth could these secret plants be located? Whether it's from your source or from "imagination", can you suggest a few places? (Resist the temptation to say "or near the base".)
-
That said, there are clear economic benefits from enlightened dictatorship. However to preserve the same and build upon it, one needs to democratize as soon as possible. Otherwise the same studies have shown a clear decline in event of a prolonged dictatorship.
Here, you raise (implicitly) a very interesting question: can "enlightened dictatorship" work in a place like Kenya today? I doubt it. People have more varied access to information, and more aware of the rest of the world, and so on. I think those days are largely gone for countries like Kenya. Johnstone Kamau could have done it, but he chose to blow it.
How about other places? Singapore: Lee Kwan Yew is a very blunt and tough fellow, but even he admitted that his iron-fist approach had its limitations. South Korea: General Park is largely forgiven, but nobody is keen for a repeat.
-
can we really compare Kenya to South Korea?
they had first university in 1885; second in 1905 .....
History
1895: The former institute of Seoul National University College of Law was established.
1905: Bosung College established
1924: Headquarters and a preparatory departments of Keij? Imperial University was founded by Japan. This university is the main predecessor to Seoul National University.
1926: Three Departments (Law, Medical Sciences, and Human Sciences) of Keij? Imperial University were opened by Japan. These were the first modern university classes in Korea. This university was the only university in Korea at the time due to oppression by Japan. The Japanese government did not approve the establishment of any university except Keij? Imperial University.
1946 August: Seoul National University founded by merging several Japanese institutions - including Keij? Imperial University - of higher education around Seoul
1946 August : Bosung College renamed Korea University
1946 August: Yonhi College renamed Yonhi University
1957 January: Severance Medical College and Hospital and Yonhi University merged into Yonsei University
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SKY_%28universities%29
in Asia the country which we may compare to could be Indonesia but still ethnic composition and its implications on politics, societal progress and economy
interesting info on ethnicity and race across countrywise
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0855617.html
-
can we really compare Kenya to South Korea?
they had first university in 1885; second in 1905 .....
The notion that great economic, industrial, etc. development is somehow directly connected to the establishment of universities is an interesting one. I just started on a little "investigation" into this theory, looking at both where various countries are today and also those that have made the most rapid progress in the last 50 years. So far, the incomplete results are interesting: on the first, North Africa is especially interesting; on the second, places like Singapore are worth another look.
But the basic argument from people like me is about leadership:
* If one looks at recent "rises", one can immediately connect it to certain leaders and what they established: Deng in China, Park in Korea, Lee in Singapore, Mahatir (to a lesser extent) in Malaysia, etc.
What about places like Kenya? Jomo's first priority was that he and "his people" grab as much as possible. That was the first 15 years of Independent Kenya. In the next 24, Moi outdid Jomo. The latter at least tried to ensure that those of "his people" who were at the top were sufficiently educated and somewhat competent. Nyayo didn't even bother with that?
* Is the problem with Kenya really that it doesn't have enough people who are sufficiently and properly educated? I'm not so sure.
A personal story: Growing up, I watched my father and many of his equally well-educated peers get really shafted solely because they were of a "wrong" tribe. I learned from that. In Moi's time, after an education in the West, I tried to return to Kenya, as had always been my intention. I had no luck, and, for the type of jobs I was looking for, it was made clear to me that my tribe was "wrong". At the same time that I was struggling to return to Moi's Kenya, I had good offers in the West and even better ones in Lee's Singapore? One does not need to have gone to school to figure out where I ended up. And doubt that I was the only one in such a situation.
* Technological and economic development is very different from, and much more rapid that, what it was more that, say, 50 years ago. In particular one needs to rethink the notion that scientific and industrial development follows the long establishment of universities. A much better view, to my mind, is that in these times they go together. For two examples, take a close look at (and consider how old they are)
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pohang_University_of_Science_and_Technology
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanyang_Technological_University
* Forget universities, of which in Kenya these days it seems like there one on top of every multi-storey shopping building. Kenya could really fly if focused on eliminating (or at least greatly reducing) tribalism and corruption, taking care of people's basic needs (food, health, housing, etc.), making the best use of the people it has, and so forth.
Just reflecting on the first, one of the things I especially liked about Singapore is the dim view towards "ethnic differences". Nowhere else in the world have I felt more comfortable as a black person. (In Kenya, my tribe has never been "right"). All that was expected of me, as everyone else, was plenty of hard work.
As I have stated before, on Africa as a whole: there is plenty of "riches" in the ground; there is no shortage of intelligent, educated people; the "youth bulge" should mean plenty of cheap labour for "nation building"; etc. So, the problem is where?
Take a look at the newest African country, S. Sudan. Kiir firing Machar was bound to lead to disaster; Kiir insisting that Machar could, at best, only be No.3 means that "peace negotiations" are just an exercise in pissing against the wind. But that's how it always seems to go on The Beloved Continent: it's either grabbing for "our people"---and bugger the other people---or it's Government vs. Rebels, in order to have one dominant group that can grab for "our people".
-
can we really compare Kenya to South Korea?
they had first university in 1885; second in 1905 .....
The notion that great economic, industrial, etc. development is somehow directly connected to the establishment of universities is an interesting one. I just started on a little "investigation" into this theory, looking at both where various countries are today and also those that have made the most rapid progress in the last 50 years. So far, the incomplete results are interesting: on the first (i.e. oldest universities), North Africa is especially interesting; on the second, places like Singapore are worth another look.
But the basic argument from people like me is about leadership:
* If one looks at recent "rises", one can immediately connect them to certain leaders and what they established: Deng in China, Park in Korea, Lee in Singapore, Mahatir (to a lesser extent) in Malaysia, etc.
What about places like Kenya? Jomo's first priority was that he and "his people" grab as much as possible. That was the first 15 years of Independent Kenya. In the next 24, Moi outdid Jomo. The former at least tried to ensure that those of "his people" who were at the top were sufficiently educated and somewhat competent. Nyayo didn't even bother with that?
* Is the problem with Kenya really that it doesn't have enough people who are sufficiently and properly educated? I'm not so sure.
A personal story: Growing up, I watched my father and many of his equally well-educated peers get really shafted solely because they were of a "wrong" tribe. I learned from that. In Moi's time, after an education in the West, I tried to return to Kenya, as had always been my intention. I had no luck, and, for the type of jobs I was looking for, it was made clear to me that my tribe was "wrong". At the same time that I was struggling to return to Moi's Kenya, I had good offers in the West and even better ones in Lee's Singapore? One does not need to have gone to school to figure out where I ended up. And doubt that I was the only one in such a situation.
* Technological and economic development is very different from, and much more rapid that, what it was more that, say, over 50 years ago. In particular one needs to rethink the notion that scientific and industrial development follows the long establishment of universities. A much better view, to my mind, is that in these times they go together. For two examples, take a close look at (and consider how old they are)
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pohang_University_of_Science_and_Technology
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanyang_Technological_University
(You may also take a look at the oldest university in Singapore---the National University of Singapore, which started out as a small outpost of the University of Malay---and compare both the countries and the former with its parent university.)
* Forget universities, of which in Kenya these days it seems like there one on top of every multi-storey shopping building. Kenya could really fly if focused on eliminating (or at least greatly reducing) tribalism and corruption, taking care of people's basic needs (food, health, housing, etc.), making the best use of the people it has, reducing the poor-rich gap, and so forth.
Just reflecting on the first of these, I recall that one of the things I especially liked about Singapore is the dim view towards "ethnic differences". Nowhere else in the world have I felt more comfortable as a black person. (In Kenya, my tribe has never been "right"). All that was expected of me, as of everyone else, was plenty of hard work.
As I have stated before, on Africa as a whole: there is plenty of "riches" in the ground; there is no shortage of intelligent, educated people; the "youth bulge" should mean plenty of cheap labour for "nation building"; etc. So, the problem is where?
Take a look at the newest African country, S. Sudan. Kiir firing Machar was bound to lead to disaster; Kiir insisting that Machar could, at best, only be No.3 means that "peace negotiations" are just an exercise in pissing against the wind. But that's how it always seems to go on The Beloved Continent: it's either grabbing for "our people"---and bugger the other people---or it's Government vs. Rebels, in order to have one dominant group that can grab for "our people".
-
(1) Your basic claim was that the USA had built power plants (secret!), roads, and other infrastructure that had somehow helped propel the Korean economy. I asked "which ones and where". I have yet to get a good answer.
I am still trying to get the exact figures and details of US aid between 1945 - 53 and crucially between 1953 - 72.
About the secret power plants for the US military, I wish to withdraw because I could never possibly provide proof of it without appearing to be a conspiracy theorist.
-
That is simplistic theory. That a country fortune can be linked to one or two political leaders. I believe a country is more like a person or a company or anything normal.....initially growth is constrained by many things..illiteracy for once at independence in kenya meant kenyatta even if he tried (and he did try) to grow the economy...we were not not going anywhere far....then after a period of slow growth..during which conditions for take off are painfully and slowly set... a country then goes into a period of high growth...leapfrogs...and then plateaus..and then even regress.
The exception are countries that hit a jackpot..like those who discovered massive amount of oils...or won some lottery or discovered some new tech...then you have "hockey stick" growth like those silicon valley firms.
(http://www.moneydiva.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/MD-Hockey-stick-graph.jpg)
You cannot talk about China,Singapore, Malaysia and Korea leap frog phase....without looking at the many years when the country toiled to get right the conditions.....and when voila the last piece of puzzle was put in place...it flew.
The pilot who lift the plane off ground...by touching the right terminals..is not more important than guys who have done lot of background work.
Development is incremental. Kenyatta won't have done nothing if he had not inherited a decent economy from the British. The same with Moi. The same with Kibaki.
You cannot possibly say China was doing ZERO when it's was under Mao' communism and all over sudden when capitalism was introduced...everything flew. Mao set the foundation for China growth...all Ping needed to do was change the policy..and voila!
(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b3/Prc1952-2005gdp.gif)
Perhaps you need to look at TZ... a country that has been well managed based on your criteria (less tribalism, less corruption,less insecurity) with great leader like Nyerere..but the country remain a BACKWATER.
Bottomline: People like you have unrealistic expectation of what a leader can do. We want them to solve all problems in a generation. And we want them to take all the flak.
If one looks at recent "rises", one can immediately connect them to certain leaders and what they established: Deng in China, Park in Korea, Lee in Singapore, Mahatir (to a lesser extent) in Malaysia, etc.
-
africa as the title of the post is still a dark continent in nearly all sectors and education darkness is fundamental to other darknesses ...the number of (diploma & degrees) graduates is a negligible fraction- Kenya has only about 500k degree graduates out of adult population of 20 million, the 2009 census as image shows doesn't paint a better picture at present and into future - reason why we have illiterate MPs, kanjoras, cabinet sec, IG, and even president with shady academic qualifications who can rarely articulate current world issues coherently ... that Kenya is adopting the India's model in education .... access ...access ... and even more access is a thing whose time came in the 60s... I remember when in 90s we were laughing at India's education system... now we are running to their health facilities over all sort over silly illnesses ... throwing away billions just because we don't have medical practitioners who can competently handle diagnostic machines even in Karen, Agha Khan, Nairobi hospitals ... if we can be able to train world class nurses why not train millions of them and export them across the world instead of exporting housemaids to arab world...
education is still the key hope for poor, ethnically divided african countries... omollo had made an interesting observation in in another post here that we keep lamenting about matatu sector yet no course is offered on makanga etiquette despite it being a thriving industry... even NYS is concentrating on bullshit military drills to 'instil discipline'.... am sure if we had diploma graduates as makangas, boda bodas, drivers things will improve for better in transport industry just like in all other areas including leadership... we may have guys appreciating miniskirts as they saw them in colleges instead of mungikism
I commend all colleges from aviation to all those on top of bars in river road .... kids need to get a 'higher education experience'... any education is greatest transformative force we have .... once we fix access quality will sort itself...cream always rises to the top
* Forget universities, of which in Kenya these days it seems like there one on top of every multi-storey shopping building. Kenya could really fly if focused on eliminating (or at least greatly reducing) tribalism and corruption, taking care of people's basic needs (food, health, housing, etc.), making the best use of the people it has, reducing the poor-rich gap, and so forth.
-
Right. There is NO single most important variable than LEVELS/YEARS of education when it come to development. Education is great predictor of success both at micro(Household)- and macro-level(National). Of course the benefits takes years...a kid has to spent anything 15-20 yrs...and so if we were to improve the quality of education now..the result will be felt in 20yrs..when Moonki will be PORK and he will ran away with sucess :lol:
Africa countries must priorities in complusory basic education....and ensure at least every kid get 12yrs of education. This is costly but in the long run..this will be setting the stage for great success..20yrs from now.
Kenya is an outlier in development in sub-sahara because it has invested in Education very seriously except in 90s when it fell to IMF/WB misguided SAP programme.
For all our woes..our quality of education..is ranked very highly...at near developed world standards...top 40 in the world. Whether someone find employment or not...level of education...will generally determine how they end up in life.
africa as the title of the post is still a dark continent in nearly all sectors and education darkness is fundamental to other darknesses ...the number of (diploma & degrees) graduates is a negligible fraction- Kenya has only about 500k degree graduates out of adult population of 20 million, the 2009 census as image shows doesn't paint a better picture at present and into future - reason why we have illiterate MPs, kanjoras, cabinet sec, IG, and even president with shady academic qualifications who can rarely articulate current world issues coherently ... that Kenya is adopting the India's model in education .... access ...access ... and even more access is a thing whose time came in the 60s... I remember when in 90s we were laughing at India's education system... now we are running to their health facilities over all sort over silly illnesses ... throwing away billions just because we don't have medical practitioners who can competently handle diagnostic machines even in Karen, Agha Khan, Nairobi hospitals ... if we can be able to train world class nurses why not train millions of them and export them across the world instead of exporting housemaids to arab world...
education is still the key hope for poor, ethnically divided african countries... omollo had made an interesting observation in in another post here that we keep lamenting about matatu sector yet no course is offered on makanga etiquette despite it being a thriving industry... even NYS is concentrating on bullshit military drills to 'instil discipline'.... am sure if we had diploma graduates as makangas, boda bodas, drivers things will improve for better in transport industry just like in all other areas including leadership... we may have guys appreciating miniskirts as they saw them in colleges instead of mungikism
I commend all colleges from aviation to all those on top of bars in river road .... kids need to get a 'higher education experience'... any education is greatest transformative force we have .... once we fix access quality will sort itself...cream always rises to the top
* Forget universities, of which in Kenya these days it seems like there one on top of every multi-storey shopping building. Kenya could really fly if focused on eliminating (or at least greatly reducing) tribalism and corruption, taking care of people's basic needs (food, health, housing, etc.), making the best use of the people it has, reducing the poor-rich gap, and so forth.
-
And talking of South Korea...if you research more..you will find out they set the stage for take off very early...starting with complusory education in 1950s.
http://www.ncee.org/programs-affiliates/center-on-international-education-benchmarking/top-performing-countries/south-korea-overview/
The Basic Education Law, passed in 1949, still provides the core structure of the system. Six years of free compulsory education, beginning at age six, is followed by three years of middle school, followed by three years of high school, followed by four years of college. This system, at least through high school, was in place by 1951.
Widespread illiteracy was eliminated by the mid-60s. Ninety percent of the elementary school cohort was in school by the same time. The same was true for middle schools by 1979. Some 98% of the cohort now completes upper secondary education—the highest rate in the OECD— and 63% of 25-34 year-olds now complete tertiary education, again the highest rate among all the OECD countries, and that rate continues to grow. Only five countries in the world have a higher proportion of the world’s total number of adults with a tertiary education, and most are far larger than South Korea. So, in a few short decades, South Korea has managed to go from massive illiteracy to topping the global charts in both quantity of education and quality of education
And they went through the familiar problems
This was not easy to do. Before the economy started generating enough money to train and hire lots of teachers, South Korean class size often topped 100, facilities were primitive and schools often ran two or three shifts.
-
I am missing this debate. I am wring on my feet or should I say butt. Deadlines are on me and I am paying for recent over/indulgence in Nipate. Ill be back, said Arnold of Austria
-
That is simplistic theory. That a country fortune can be linked to one or two political leaders.
You must have cut your history classes. History tells us that individuals can have a huge effect (negative or positive) on the fortunes (social, economic, etc.) of a nation. That is how such individuals end up in the history books. More significantly, it is leadership that makes the differences among countries that otherwise start as equal.
In the case of people like Deng, Park, Lee, etc. there is a clear and direct link between the policies that they put into effect and the subsequent transformation of the countries. If you have an argument to the contrary, let's have it.
You cannot talk about China, Singapore, Malaysia and Korea leap frog phase....without looking at the many years when the country toiled to get right the conditions.....and when voila the last piece of puzzle was put in place...it flew.
Again, you miss the point on leadership. If it will help you get, it consider countries that at the same time (before the transformation) had roughly similar conditions. The difference is leadership. You need to give up this notion that the way major transformations happen is that people toil and toil and toil, and then one day---as if by magic---"voila the last piece of puzzle ... in place". Nevertheless, it is not just you: Kenyans and many other Africans need to stop believing that it is just a matter of toiling---especially when much of the toil is unproductive---and pay more serious attention to the bases on which they elect their leaders.
Development is incremental. Kenyatta won't have done nothing if he had not inherited a decent economy from the British. The same with Moi. The same with Kibaki.
...
Bottomline: People like you have unrealistic expectation of what a leader can do. We want them to solve all problems in a generation. And we want them to take all the flak.
What did Kenyatta do other than grab and institute corruption? Today Kenya is bedeviled by corruption, which everyone agrees has been and is hurting the country. On the other hand, that is hardly existent in Singapore, because Lee decided from the beginning that he would have none of it. That is an example of the difference in leadership. That is why today, all over the world Lee is regarded as a great leader, and Johnstone Kamau, Moi, and Kibaki are noted---if anyone notes anything at all---as just standard-issue African jokers but without "rebels" to fight. Kibaki is of course also remembered for another thing: the PEV.
Moi was a total disaster. The idea that he did anything positive is absurd. (I am here excluding the grabbing he did for himself and "his people", the pushing of absolute incompetents into high positions, etc.). Kibaki had a chance to set the country of a new course, but he blew it.
In considering where Kenya is, one should think of where it would be if that lot had gone a different way. To my mind, it is not unrealistic to expect that "leaders" should not lead in theft, corruption, the promotion of ethnic divisions, etc. Until Kenya really tackles these things, it is going nowhere.
-
Before i respond to you...please respond to my Tazania analogy. I know you're too prejudiced against our kenyan political leaders to be objective but maybe you need to tell us what went wrong in TZ..who had a great leader in Nyerere..and subsequent leaders...haven't be plagued by as much corruption and primitive wealth accumulation like ours.
Based on your theory..TZ would be miles ahead..but we know it's a cesspool compared to kenya.
And i did not say leadership doesn't matter. I said it is ONE OF THE MANY FACTORS. You theory i repeat is simplistic. Political leadership/Governance is just one of the many variables need to turn around the fortunes of a country.
And when you say two countries are EQUAL...you mean what? South Korea GDP might have been equal to Kenya in mid 60s..but there were many difference....one...by that time..South Korea first generation of compulsory educated kids were graduating.....meanwhile illiteracy in kenya was 90% (and still is in places like turkana, mandera, etc).
Another variable you have to look at is demographics..the structure and the growth rate. We we breeding like rats with so many kids being supported by two illeterate parents..while south koreans were already siring less kids.
There are many other variables...of course including economic systems (capitalism versus communism then), rule of law, fiscal policies, industrial policies, health systems, etc
That is simplistic theory. That a country fortune can be linked to one or two political leaders.
You must have cut your history classes. History tells us that individuals can have a huge effect (negative or positive) on the fortunes (social, economic, etc.) of a nation. That is how such individuals end up in the history books. More significantly, it is leadership that makes the differences among countries that otherwise start as equal.
In the case of people like Deng, Park, Lee, etc. there is a clear and direct link between the policies that they put into effect and the subsequent transformation of the countries. If you have an argument to the contrary, let's have it.
You cannot talk about China, Singapore, Malaysia and Korea leap frog phase....without looking at the many years when the country toiled to get right the conditions.....and when voila the last piece of puzzle was put in place...it flew.
Again, you miss the point on leadership. If it will help you get, it consider countries that at the same time (before the transformation) had roughly similar conditions. The difference is leadership. You need to give up this notion that the way major transformations happen is that people toil and toil and toil, and then one day---as if by magic---"voila the last piece of puzzle ... in place". Nevertheless, it is not just you: Kenyans and many other Africans need to stop believing that it is just a matter of toiling---especially when much of the toil is unproductive---and pay more serious attention to the bases on which they elect their leaders.
Development is incremental. Kenyatta won't have done nothing if he had not inherited a decent economy from the British. The same with Moi. The same with Kibaki.
...
Bottomline: People like you have unrealistic expectation of what a leader can do. We want them to solve all problems in a generation. And we want them to take all the flak.
What did Kenyatta do other than grab and institute corruption? Today Kenya is bedeviled by corruption, which everyone agrees has been and is hurting the country. On the other hand, that is hardly existent in Singapore, because Lee decided from the beginning that he would have none of it. That is an example of the difference in leadership. That is why today, all over the world Lee is regarded as a great leader, and Johnstone Kamau, Moi, and Kibaki are noted---if anyone notes anything at all---as just standard-issue African jokers but without "rebels" to fight. Kibaki is of course also remembered for another thing: the PEV.
Moi was a total disaster. The idea that he did anything positive is absurd. (I am here excluding the grabbing he did for himself and "his people", the pushing of absolute incompetents into high positions, etc.). Kibaki had a chance to set the country of a new course, but he blew it.
In considering where Kenya is, one should think of where it would be if that lot had gone a different way. To my mind, it is not unrealistic to expect that "leaders" should not lead in theft, corruption, the promotion of ethnic divisions, etc. Until Kenya really tackles these things, it is going nowhere.
-
Before i respond to you...please respond to my Tazania analogy. I know you're too prejudiced against our kenyan political leaders to be objective but maybe you need to tell us what went wrong in TZ..who had a great leader in Nyerere..and subsequent leaders...haven't be plagued by as much corruption and primitive wealth accumulation like ours.
I think you have a problem with basic logic, and we need to address that before we can make progress. Consider the following sentences.
(a) Without corruption and primitive wealth accumulation a country will do much better than it would otherwise have done.
(b) Without corruption and primitive wealth accumulation will develop extremely rapidly economically.
Can you tell the differences between the two? Perhaps I should give you a simpler one:
(c) Tallness is favourable to success in a basket player.
(d) Tallness guarantees success in a basketball player.
Once you are able to tell the differences between the statements in each pair, revisit this one:
"In considering where Kenya is, one should think of where it would be if that lot had gone a different way."
By the way, what is it that supposedly "went wrong" in Tanzania?
Based on your theory..TZ would be miles ahead..but we know it's a cesspool compared to kenya.
You ought to pay more attention to what you write. See red above.
-
education is still the key hope for poor, ethnically divided african countries...
I absolutely agree with the statements on the importance of education. My main point was that the educated will do themselves and their nation good only to the extent that they have the opportunities to do so. It does not help to have a situation in which the best that educated youth, many with high expectations, can look forward to is years and years of the tarmac. It does not help when well-educated people find themselves unemployed, in favour of barely-educated bums from the "right" tribe. And so on.
-
I see you've resorted to usual sillness and pettiness when cornered. I don't need lectures on causality and causation...or logic.
Let me repeat myself. A country is a like big ship with so many variables and the captain is just one of many variables. Of course there is no stopping a really stupid captain from sinking the ship if he so determined...but the captain cannot also make the ship suddenly fly off ground...like it was jet.
A country can grow with or without democracy, with or without corruption, with or without ABC..because they are so MANY variables that determine the destiny of a country. Malindi wouldn't have risen without drug dealing. Macau is sin city full of casinos..and so is Las Vegas. There are countries who have thrived with corruptions and all sort of crimes. China rose without any democracy. There are military dictatorships that have done well.
Case in point Tazania. It doesn't have kenya tribalism, hasn't been affected by graft till recently and is fairly secure and cohesive..but she has been beaten by kenya 10-nil for all those years...coz she on the other hand made idiotic choices as country...such as uchamaa policy, the refusal to allow private ownership of land till today, refusal to allow foreigners to own land, idiotic fiscal and monetary policies including foreign currency restrictions to date, swahili based education systems that is totally useless.. Kenya has it's well known problems (corruption, tribalism,insecurity) but it also made very many smart choices..that has made her the top 5 sub-saharan economy and the best sub-saharan economy without any resources like mines or oils.
You either want to engage in a serious debate..or you want to continue heaping all blame or praise on the usual suspects (politicians).
Before i respond to you...please respond to my Tazania analogy. I know you're too prejudiced against our kenyan political leaders to be objective but maybe you need to tell us what went wrong in TZ..who had a great leader in Nyerere..and subsequent leaders...haven't be plagued by as much corruption and primitive wealth accumulation like ours.
I think you have a problem with basic logic, and we need to address that before we can make progress. Consider the following sentences.
(a) Without corruption and primitive wealth accumulation a country will do much better than it would otherwise have done.
(b) Without corruption and primitive wealth accumulation will develop extremely rapidly economically.
Can you tell the differences between the two? Perhaps I should give you a simpler one:
(c) Tallness is favourable to success in a basket player.
(d) Tallness guarantees success in a basketball player.
One you are able to tell the differences between the statements in each pair, let me know.
By the way, what "went wrong" in Tanzania"
Based on your theory..TZ would be miles ahead..but we know it's a cesspool compared to kenya.
You ought to pay more attention to what you write. See red above.
-
Another very narrow view of education. Education apart from impacting one with life skills impart people with ability to make smart choices...how many children to have, when to have them, how to save money, how to start business, how to farm better, how to realize this is a disease not a witchraft...bla de bla..emigrate for work. Employment in gov even if it went to one tribe..is mere 700,000 jobs..and you have more than 14M eligible (16-65) kenyans who need jobs. There are lots of jobs in private sector and even more in informal sector.In kenya you'll be suprised to realize people in informal sector earn more than formal sector of the same level of education. Matatu touts who is std 8 drop out makes more than gov office cleaner.
Quantity and quality of education is too important a variable to be looked at the prism of finding a job in formal economy.
I absolutely agree with the statements on the importance of education. My main point was that the educated will do themselves and their nation good only to the extent that they have the opportunities to do so. It does not help to have a situation in which the best that educated youth, many with high expectations, can look forward to is years and years of the tarmac. It does not help when well-educated people find themselves unemployed, in favour of barely-educated bums from the "right" tribe. And so on.
-
There are lots of jobs in private sector and even more in informal sector.
Give us the number of those jobs Vs. Job seekers,
Without Prejudice.
-
I see you've resorted to usual sillness and pettiness when cornered. I don't need lectures on causality and causation...or logic.
No, no, no. Calling it silliness and pettiness won't do. What will do is a better display of elementary logic.
Case in point Tazania. It doesn't have kenya tribalism, hasn't been affected by graft till recently and is fairly secure and cohesive..but she has been beaten by kenya 10-nil for all those years...coz she on the other hand made idiotic choice as country...such uchamaa policy
See, this is exactly where basic logic would help you. The fact that Tanzania has not done better economically than Kenya even though it does not have the same levels of tribalism and corruption is totally irrelevant to the question of whether Kenya would have done better than it has if it had less of those.
that has made it's the top 5 sub-saharan economy and the best sub-saharan economy without any resources like mines or oils.
And let me too repeat myself: economic growth that does not translate into human development is hardly the thing to brag about. Kenya might be "top 5", but if you look at say, the UNDP's human development index, you will find Kenya in the lowest category of "Low Human Development". On the other hand, you will find several other countries in the higher category of "Medium Human Development".
-
There are enough jobs for everyone...and in this global economy...as many jobs as you want. Last i checked Formal sector (Private Sector) had 2.5M jobs. Informal sectors was 12M jobs. The jobs that are really paying in informal sector..are those outside agricultural activities...which are plagued by low pay.
Give us the number of those jobs Vs. Job seekers,
Without Prejudice.
-
This is just classic pettiness. The point is simple. Kenya and South Korea were as equal as Kenya and TZ were equal. That kenya could have done better...of course...but would it have replicated South Korea or Singapore or Malaysia..hell NO. Kenya 60s economy was white economy while majority blacks were crippled by poverty, illiteracy and disease to quote Jomo. South Korea were 15-20yrs more prepared than us.
HDI..they are as many indices out there as you want...National Happinness..?? name them. Knock yourself off....but you'll find Kenya beat TZ....just like South Korea beat kenya.
I notice you're now once again going into bla de bla territory having ran out of points.
I see you've resorted to usual sillness and pettiness when cornered. I don't need lectures on causality and causation...or logic.
No, no, no. Calling it silliness and pettiness won't do. What will do is a better display of elementary logic.
Case in point Tazania. It doesn't have kenya tribalism, hasn't been affected by graft till recently and is fairly secure and cohesive..but she has been beaten by kenya 10-nil for all those years...coz she on the other hand made idiotic choice as country...such uchamaa policy
See, this is exactly where basic logic would help you. The fact that Tanzania has not done better economically than Kenya even though it does not have the same levels of tribalism and corruption is totally irrelevant to the question of whether Kenya would have done better than it has if it had less of those.
that has made it's the top 5 sub-saharan economy and the best sub-saharan economy without any resources like mines or oils.
And let me too repeat myself: economic growth that does not translate into human development is hardly the thing to brag about. Kenya might be "top 5", but if you look at say, the UNDP's human development index, you will find Kenya in the lowest category of "Low Human Development". On the other hand, you will find several other countries in the higher category of "Medium Human Development".
-
Another very narrow view of education. Education apart from impacting one with life skills impart people with ability to make smart choices...how many children to have, when to have them, how to save money, how to start business, how to farm better,
Really? Is that what all those uneducated but unemployed youth in Kenya are doing? Making smart choices? Saving money they don't have? Farming land they don't have? Starting business with money they don't have? It sure doesn't look that way.
There are lots of jobs in private sector and even more in informal sector.
Really? And what is the unemployment rate in Kenya?
In kenya you'll be suprised to realize people in informal sector earn more than formal sector of the same level of education. Matatu touts who is std 8 drop out makes more than gov office cleaner.
And exactly how is that relevant to the unemployment rate?
-
There are enough jobs for everyone...and in this global economy...as many jobs as you want.
This one is definitely very funny! :D
-
If you were half educated as i am; you'll not be asking such questions; You do not need to own land to farm; Most of our agriclutural production is plagued by low productivity and inefficiency mostly due to basic lack of farm education; in my village; i see folks who went thro' 12 yrs of education; do far much better than their parents; owning far less the land (after being shared); reason they know how to efficiently and effectively use 1 -acre land.
Jobs are generated by the economy. Not gov. And everywhere including the US..most jobs are in SME sector..in kenya these are informal jobs..in matatus, kinyozis,
Rather than lying to folks that some "right" tribe has taken all jobs...anybody looking for job....should try all sectors..gov...private...and informal sector.
Those who can use mshwari...to get cheap credit..can start business.
Another very narrow view of education. Education apart from impacting one with life skills impart people with ability to make smart choices...how many children to have, when to have them, how to save money, how to start business, how to farm better,
Really? Is that what all those uneducated but unemployed youth in Kenya are doing? Making smart choices? Saving money they don't have? Farming land they don't have? Starting business with money they don't have? It sure doesn't look that way.
There are lots of jobs in private sector and even more in informal sector.
Really? And what is the unemployment rate in Kenya?
In kenya you'll be suprised to realize people in informal sector earn more than formal sector of the same level of education. Matatu touts who is std 8 drop out makes more than gov office cleaner.
And exactly how is that relevant to the unemployment rate?
-
When is the last time you read a kenya labour report? When is the last time you checked earnings in informal sector? There are enough jobs for those willing to work. Those like your friends waiting for "right time" when their tribe will be in power will wait for quite some time. In meantime i would advice them to look for jobs everywhere..including starting their own small business.
This one is definitely very funny! :D
-
If you were half educated as i am; you'll not be asking such questions
You are right. But, if I may ask: why aren't you fully educated?
-
When is the last time you read a kenya labour report? When is the last time you checked earnings in informal sector? There are enough jobs for those willing to work. Those like your friends waiting for "right time" when their tribe will be in power will wait for quite some time.
He, he, that one too is very funny.
But it is nowhere near as funny as this classic one that I will pass it on to all those "willing to work":
There are enough jobs for everyone...and in this global economy...as many jobs as you want.
Pure Pundit!
-
There are lots of jobs in private sector and even more in informal sector.
Give us the number of those jobs Vs. Job seekers,
Without Prejudice.
The Pundit on this thread is Pundit II. Don't confuse that with Pundit I, who, on this thread
http://www.nipate.org/index.php?topic=1768.msg11671#msg11671
was arguing that Kenya needs to do better on manufacturing because
"For Nairobi...slum dwellers need jobs...our industrial area hasn't grown..it seem to be becoming smaller and smaller...and there in lies the big problem. Most slum dwellers now are engaged in real estate..mjengo...however those are volatile short term jobs."
(That's the closest he came to making a case as to why Kenya needs to do better in manufacturing.)
Number of those jobs Vs. Job seekers? I too am keen to see those figures.
-
My point remain the same. There are jobs..all sort of jobs. We can do with better jobs of course. We can do better in formalizing the informal sector. This is now happening in retail sectors..from dukawallas to supermarkets...kenya is now second only to south africa in that sector..we can do the same for all the other sectors.
The last time i checked...only 2m out of 14M folks were lazying around waiting for those white collar jobs or for the "right" tribe to be in power..the rest have immersed themselves to all kind of jobs. About 0.7M are employed by GOk..2.5M by private sector..and the rest by informal sector including real estate, agri activities, etc.
Those with more education even if they were doing informal mjengo jobs or touting...out earn those in formal sector... The problem is the bulk of those in informal jobs are std 8 or less drop outs. Only about 17% of all adults in kenya have 12yrs plus of education...and there in lies our problem...apart from of course generating better paying jobs.
The Pundit on this thread is Pundit II. Don't confuse that with Pundit I, who, on this thread
http://www.nipate.org/index.php?topic=1768.msg11671#msg11671
was arguing that Kenya needs to do better on manufacturing because
"For Nairobi...slum dwellers need jobs...our industrial area hasn't grown..it seem to be becoming smaller and smaller...and there in lies the big problem. Most slum dwellers now are engaged in real estate..mjengo...however those are volatile short term jobs."
(That's the closest he came to making a case as to why Kenya needs to do better in manufacturing.)
Number of those jobs Vs. Job seekers? I too am keen to see those figures.
-
Pundit:
Someone out there doesn't know what you know. You should help them help "those willing to work".
"Unemployment Rate in Kenya increased to 40 percent in 2011 from 12.70 percent in 2006. Unemployment Rate in Kenya averaged 22.43 Percent from 1999 until 2011, reaching an all time high of 40 Percent in 2011 and a record low of 12.70 Percent in 2006. Unemployment Rate in Kenya is reported by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics"
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/kenya/unemployment-rate
"Youth unemployment in Kenya is a ticking time bomb waiting to explode. Today, unemployment in Kenya stands at 40%, and 70% of those unemployed are between the ages of 15 and 35.. "
http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2013/10/15/reducing-youth-unemployment-kenya
"Unemployment has remained one of the most daunting challenges in Kenya’s socio-economic development process for most of the post-independence period. Unemployment Rate in Kenya is reported by the Kenya National Bureau of statistics and unemployment rate in Kenya stands at about 40% of the general population in 2013"
http://fortuneofafrica.com/kenya/unemployment-in-kenya/
"Universities in Kenya release about 70,000 graduates into the job market every year. A large number of these graduates contribute to the 40 per cent unemployment rate cited by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics."
http://www.jkuat.ac.ke/departments/it/ideas-to-help-graduates-to-be-more-employable/
"Unemployment has remained one of the major challenges in Kenya’s socio-economic development process for most of the post-independence period. Unemployment Rate in Kenya as reported by the Kenya National Bureau of statistics was at about 40% of the general population in 2013"
http://www.ijern.com/journal/April-2014/43.pdf
"Teargas rains down on Kenyans marching for better jobs ... According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, the country’s unemployment rate stands at 40 per cent while the average annual salary of US$1,700 condemns millions to a life of working poverty."
http://www.equaltimes.org/teargas-rains-down-on-kenyans?lang=en#.VQRUC2dFBKo
"Kenya's Ticking Time Bomb: How political corruption is turning the country's spiralling youth unemployment into a threat to society.
...
The country has one of the largest youth populations in Africa, but roughly 70 percent of its working age youth - almost 10 million people - are unemployed, although a surprising number are very well educated and possess the kinds of skills a healthy economy really should be able to put to use.
In a country where almost 80 percent of the population is under the age of 35 some have labelled it a national disaster in the making, that may have serious social consequences and lead to civil unrest."
http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/peopleandpower/2013/11/kenya-ticking-time-bomb-20131120115023966577.html
-
I think corruption of the kind practiced in African countries gives development a knockout blow. I am just following the latest Ababu/Mutea Iringo saga. The numbers involved can make the difference between having a functioning hospital or some other well maintained public resource and none. And this is I believe a tip of the iceberg.
I think bigger economies are better insulated against it. But even then, only up to a point; Nigeria being a good case in point.
Education is good. But in country where values like integrity and discipline don't exist, the people who will make it are usually the exceptional variety. Wanjiku is screwed from the get go.
-
"Unemployment Rate in Kenya increased to 40 percent in 2011 from 12.70 percent in 2006. Unemployment Rate in Kenya averaged 22.43 Percent from 1999 until 2011, reaching an all time high of 40 Percent in 2011 and a record low of 12.70 Percent in 2006. Unemployment Rate in Kenya is reported by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics"
www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=ke&v=66
The above link I've posted is on economic growth rates,
If you compare Kenya economic growth rate with unemployment rates,you will see a big correlation,take an example of 2006 when the economic growth rate was at a low of 12.70%,you will note economic growth rate was at Over 5%,If you look at 1990s and 2011-12 period,You will note as the economic growth slowed,unemployment rose,
Let me now turn to economic growth,High economic growth means more business activity and more kenyans being absorbed in unemployment and vice versa,The Kenya economy is affected by a number of factors:
(a) The global economy interms of exports like coffee,tea,fresh produce,Remittances and tourism which means if the global economy performs well,our economy performs well,like during the Kibaki first term,the global economy did very and when integrated with local gov policies at the time,we saw reduction in unemployment,strong shilling and increase in revenues,
(b) Infrastructure and urbanization..The Kenya economy is currently growing at 6-7%,that means more kenyans are getting employment,Kenya is also witnessing urbanization rates of around 4% which is creating demand for housing which is fueling the manufacturing sector in areas like timber,cement,paint,mining,transport etc etc,that is already creating so many jobs..Now lets turn to infrastructure like SGR and low energy costs due to geothermal which will create thousands of jobs in the construction and manufacturing industry and improve our ease of doing business index which attract more investment but the infrastructure project which will create most jobs is the 10,000KMs project by the jubilee gov,if all these projects succeed,unemployment will be back to 2006 level and even lower,
Without Prejudice.
-
Two other issues,
(a) Real estate jobs are not volatile,they are pegged on housing demand due to urbanization which will remain robust upto 2050 when almost 75% kenyans will be living in cities,
(b) Formal markets,these will largely be driven by urbanization if you look at Kenya formal market its at 30% same as our urban population,As people migrate to cities,that will drive manufacturing since urbanites consume processed milk,processed meat,canned tomato,processed juice,processed water,processed flour etc etc unlike people in rural area who eat potato from shamba instead of chips,use raw milk direct from the cow instead of packed milk or eat mango straight from the tree instead of dried or blended ones,etc etc,
Urbanization means living as a civilized creature in a concrete jungle,
Without Prejudice.