Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on February 24, 2022, 06:11:51 AM
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That should cause some excitement in Meru?
He seems to be impressed by his work (I guess in Tea sector) though agri sector is ravaged by inputs shooting thro the roofs.
He asked the crowd if Munya should continue?
Continue I as minister?
But we wait to see if he will pull Muhoho from his bag of suprises.
Question remain - is Munya eligible to be DPORK having elected not to resign six months to the general election but play politics as CS ?
I think he is ineligible - if it was by-election - the requirements waved or shortneded to a month or so (dont know the specific) - but for general elections which is certain he ought to have resigned on the 10th.
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That should cause some excitement in Meru?
He seems to be impressed by his work (I guess in Tea sector) though agri sector is ravaged by inputs shooting thro the roofs.
He asked the crowd if Munya should continue?
Continue I as minister?
But we wait to see if he will pull Muhoho from his bag of suprises.
Question remain - is Munya eligible to be DPORK having elected not to resign six months to the general election but play politics as CS ?
I think he is ineligible - if it was by-election - the requirements waved or shortneded to a month or so (dont know the specific) - but for general elections which is certain he ought to have resigned on the 10th.
Yep he is impressed by Munya, as for tosharing him its a wait and see gatheca like I said is playing a super hybrid game keeping all guessing,what was more symbolic though is seeing Kiraitu and Munya in same function this to me means gatheca is targeting Meru as a final card to nail down Ruto.
There is No way Uhuru can tosha Muhoho that's a non starter it won't gain anything for him kura wise. As for legal obstacles to face Munya I see none, Munya is not running for any post and if he is picked to be Dp there a dozens of legal loopholes he can use that can't stop him
What to ask though is Rutos plan if Munya takes Dp then Ruto options in Meru is either to pick Kindiki or forget Meru votes
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Ruto then would have to weigh if taking Mudavadi would give him replacement for Meru votes which of course he cant. Merus will vote as a block for a Munya dp if it was to happen. At the moment no Voting block can replace Meru votes for dp. Kalonzo is already watered down by 3 Kamba governors who toshad baba.
Kikuyus too would vote up to 60% for a Munya dp,Embu 70% mbeere 90%. I think thats why Gatheca is hellbent on keeping Munya and Kiraitu together making Merus vote as a block. We talking about 1.3 Million votes from mt kenya east. But we in early days
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I agree Uhuru still keeping the cards close on DPORK - I guess he needs to negotiate with Kalonzo first - and he also not interested to give up being Muthamaki.
Kalonzo minimum will be DPORK.
Yet he also knows minimum from GEMA is DPORK
I think in terms of picking Munya - or anyone else - in his side - he has the free hand.
The competition in that part has narrowed down to Munya or PK - Uhuru has never liked PK
Also seeing his main stock the kikuyus are rebellious - Meru could go along way to get an assured 4 percent for Jakom.
So it would be good realistic move.
What will Ruto do?
I think Plan A remain to pick a Kikuyu - they are like 20 percent - compared to Meru 4 percent.
If Kalonzo was to cross over - Ruto then can pick almost anyone - Kikuyu or non kikuyu
...Anyway let us be realistic now
I dont see Ruto picking Prof Kindiki - even if Raila picks Munya
Ruto is the guy who stick to his word - as much as he is politician
If this has been promised to Gachagua - Gachagua takes.
I think Ruto pretty much decided it's going to be Gachagua unless something was to drastically change.
Munya eligibility will be decided by courts - if he was picked. For me he is not eligible. PORK and DPORK have the same requirements but big question - is DPORK appointed or selected?
Yep he is impressed by Munya, as for tosharing him its a wait and see gatheca like I said is playing a super hybrid game keeping all guessing,what was more symbolic though is seeing Kiraitu and Munya in same function this to me means gatheca is targeting Meru as a final card to nail down Ruto.
There is No way Uhuru can tosha Muhoho that's a non starter it won't gain anything for him kura wise. As for legal obstacles to face Munya I see none, Munya is not running for any post and if he is picked to be Dp there a dozens of legal loopholes he can use that can't stop him
What to ask though is Rutos plan if Munya takes Dp then Ruto options in Meru is either to pick Kindiki or forget Meru votes
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I agree Munya will be competitive in Mt Kenya East - but at end of the day - it's 5 percent of total votes.
Kikuyus alone account for 20 percent - so that elephant on the room.
Why would Kikuyu vote 60% for Munya :) - as DPORK for Raila.
In my view kikuyu have other priorities - the top for them - is their 3 million people living in rift valley.
They dont see why they should go to war with Kalenjin for Raila.
They dont really give much of a damn about Merus and Embus.
But I agree - for Raila - his best move is to try to go for 5 percent of Mt kenya East - they will be excited for DPORK.
Ruto then would have to weigh if taking Mudavadi would give him replacement for Meru votes which of course he cant. Merus will vote as a block for a Munya dp if it was to happen. At the moment no Voting block can replace Meru votes for dp. Kalonzo is already watered down by 3 Kamba governors who toshad baba.
Kikuyus too would vote up to 60% for a Munya dp,Embu 70% mbeere 90%. I think thats why Gatheca is hellbent on keeping Munya and Kiraitu together making Merus vote as a block. We talking about 1.3 Million votes from mt kenya east. But we in early days
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Its a tight balancing act for Ruto. Gachagua would cost Ruto Many votes even in Nyeri Gachagua is a disliked fellow and only coz of his late brother that people give him time. You should Know how it will flip. If Gachagua was to be dp trust Kiunjuri and all other rebellious Kikuyu would flock to Azimio. Thus gaining more votes for baba. Ruto has to study Uhuru very hard and use the castle and knight to prevent him moving at the moment gatheca has too much leeway compared to Ruto. I would say gatheca has an upper hand at the moment.
Lets see if Kikuyus give a damn about Merus and Embus like you say Munya as dp would answer that to some extent as he is not running for pork but I can assure you gachagua as Dp vs Munya Dp,Munya would beat Gachagua like a burukenge votes wise. Ruto is Lucky he is running against baba the raira name is what people vote against.
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I think Gachagua has crushed all the opposition and rivals
Initially I was also skeptical but Gachagua has proven his mettle -
The job really here was simple - who is the most bitter with Uhuru - who is most fearless warrior against dynasties.
Who can fearless express the anger and frustration of GEMA on Uhuru & Raila?
The options dwindled to two - Robert & Alice :)
Kiunjuri was last seen battling Pokots in Lakipia East running for MP.
Moses Kuria has miscalculated and seem will sign for minister in Ruto's UDA - he has little negotiating power.
Kindiki was rescued from being beaten blue in Tharaka governorship race.
Power is grabbed. Not given. It's not for the likeable.
I just dont see anybody in Mt Kenya who can take on Ruto & Gachagua.
Gachagua has proven himself a mafia that Ruto will be afraid to betray.
Its a tight balancing act for Ruto. Gachagua would cost Ruto Many votes even in Nyeri Gachagua is a disliked fellow and only coz of his late brother that people give him time. You should Know how it will flip. If Gachagua was to be dp trust Kiunjuri and all other rebellious Kikuyu would flock to Azimio. Thus gaining more votes for baba. Ruto has to study Uhuru very hard and use the castle and knight to prevent him moving at the moment gatheca has too much leeway compared to Ruto. I would say gatheca has an upper hand at the moment.
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Gatheca advantages
1)Gatheca has more leeway wiggle room than Ruto
2)Gatheca has benefit to pull surprise More than Ruto
3)Gatheca has more time to his benefit to pull string s
Rutos advantage s
1) Ruto is running against baba who is hated in mountain so choice of Dp Might not affect him that much this is the strongest point for him
2)Ruto has majority of elected leaders on his side
3)Ruto hustler narrative has resonated strongly with local populace which is repulsive to dynasty
However Ruto should Know its Tharaka Nithi that decides Kenyan election. If Munya was to be dp and he doesn't make Kindiki one trust me Ruto will be beaten senseless like a burukenge by Tharaka Nithi Voters
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Njuri the window of suprises is fast closing.
There is deadline for nominating DPORK
Secondly Tharaka Nithi is myth to explain Kibaki rigging.
Kindiki is too weak - at least Munya can defend his ground.
If Ruto appoint Kindiki - then Ruto will rule unchallenged.
If that is what you want - I think Ruto will be happy?
Thought you never win anything with the weak yes men.
You hunt with the strong guys.
Again Kalonzo is the next move to watch - if he chooses Azimio or runs alone - then Ruto will appoint Gachagua tomorrow
If Kalonzo decided to move to kenya Kwanza - the GEMA premium will drop like hot coal
Kalonzo or MaDVD can even get DPORK because frankly at that point - triumvrate of Kalenjin, Kamba and Luhya will easily deliver PORK.
So it possible Ruto may decide to shorten this makelele with Uhuru by giving Kalonzo DPORK.
Gachagua will take the Interior Ministry....because at that point....Ruto will be winning with 65 percent.
Gatheca advantages
1)Gatheca has more leeway wiggle room than Ruto
2)Gatheca has benefit to pull surprise More than Ruto
3)Gatheca has more time to his benefit to pull string s
Rutos advantage s
1) Ruto is running against baba who is hated in mountain so choice of Dp Might not affect him that much this is the strongest point for him
2)Ruto has majority of elected leaders on his side
3)Ruto hustler narrative has resonated strongly with local populace which is repulsive to dynasty
However Ruto should Know its Tharaka Nithi that decides Kenyan election. If Munya was to be dp and he doesn't make Kindiki one trust me Ruto will be beaten senseless like a burukenge by Tharaka Nithi Voters
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How many kura can Mudavadi bring from luhya? Lets be honest Baba will beat fat Messi in luhya land senseless we talking about 70% of votes to baba. Mudavavdi last time managed about 4% of aluhya votes.
Best bet for Ruto is Kalonzo as dp but then mlima votes might disappear apo ndio utajua should Munya be dp will count.
Kalonzo already lost momentum to 3 kamba governors who endrorsed baba. Kalonzo has no voting block as we speak today
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You sound like ODM :) now.
MaDVD+Weta is big win for Ruto.
It's win of two most important const of baluhya - the Bukusu & Maragolis.
Ruto already had serious play - but now maDVD+Weta solidifies his position and tips the scale.
I dont see Raila beating Ruto in Luhyaland except in Busia.
When it come to Ukambani - again Ruto has serious play - he need Kalonzo to just solidfy it -
Otherwise right now opinion polls show Ruto leading ukambani - btw 35 to 40 percent.
But I believe - see MOAS - that if Kalonzo play rough - it will halve to 20-25 percent.
Now those 3 governors - will not survive a combined kalonzo+Ruto
Like MadDVD+Weta - Raila stand guilty of mistreating Kalonzo
So these are the dynamics you need to watch.
In 2013 - maDVD was victim of Uhuru ukora - and he was an object of ridicule - but still got 4 percent of national vote - that is almost 1/3 of Luhyas - he had little play in Bukusu as Weta was backing Raila.
The reality is that if Ruto was to win Kalonzo - it would be at expense of GEMA.
You will blame your own Gatheca and division for lower political premium
Your numbers will mean nothing - much - because at that point Ruto can win with even 20 percent of GEMA :)
How many kura can Mudavadi bring from luhya? Lets be honest Baba will beat fat Messi in luhya land senseless we talking about 70% of votes to baba. Mudavavdi last time managed about 4% of aluhya votes.
Best bet for Ruto is Kalonzo as dp but then mlima votes might disappear apo ndio utajua should Munya be dp will count.
Kalonzo already lost momentum to 3 kamba governors who endrorsed baba. Kalonzo has no voting block as we speak today
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Your pain is that GEMA still calls the shots but you trying to downplay us in your small murski brain.
The truth is we will decide who becomes pork we are second to none we will remote control baba or Mzito with a kill switch to demobilise them as we feel so.
Please your anger needs to be controlled you can't discount mlima,Ruto knows better unlike you who is emotional
Am off to the airport to catch a flight to Mandera.laters
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Again Moi won twice without any GEMA vote.
GEMA my friend are 25 percent of vote - about 22 percent of population.
If you play wrong - divide the votes; it stops being premium.
if you split 50-50; it become useless.
Right now - the action is on Kalonzo - Baba badly needs him to get to 40s.
If Ruto win Kalonzo - it's over- over - no need for election - I can volunteer to swear Ruto tomorrow.
What therefore is Kalonzo prize - it's at premium.
I see him seriously negotiating for DPORK from either side.
Your pain is that GEMA still calls the shots but you trying to downplay us in your small murski brain.
The truth is we will decide who becomes pork we are second to none we will remote control baba or Mzito with a kill switch to demobilise them as we feel so.
Please your anger needs to be controlled you can't discount mlima,Ruto knows better unlike you who is emotional
Am off to the airport to catch a flight to Mandera.laters
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Wrong time for Uhuru and his project
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Pundit you are losing your mind. Merus right now have no reason to betray uhuru. He has kept his pact with them. What will happen is raila will back 6 super ministers who incase of bbi resurrection will be promised deputy prime ministers. Like njuri says uhuru has a lot of cards to play. The power of incumbency is a big wild card. Uhuru has. Promised that he will sponsor and fund candidates under jubilee. It is hard to compete with such an offer
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We shall see soon.
Just spin your theories without becoming insulting.
Uhuru will have some impact.
That is why I see Jakom moving from 2 percent he got last time to 35 percent in some places - 20 percent in others.
That is HUGE impact.
I think it's overly generous - but as of now Jakom is at 20 percent of GEMA land - which is 100 times of improvemt :).
When it comes to money advantage - I dont see it - Uhuru was complaining bitterly that Ruto has outbided him
Ruto has money - Uhuru has money.
When it comes to incumbency - yes I am expecting the provincial administration will be put to work
Chiefs and Ass chiefs may be mobilized - but IEBC is clearly out of their control.
This is why Ruto needed maDVD+Weta to provide rigging margins.
Again - we shall see how this plays out.
He already played his card - now it's no longer a secret.
Next we shall see how this pans out in mt kenya - there are so many indicators to watch out - we shall not miss to see movement.
Next card we want to see played is Kalonzo.
Then we can work on the final figures.
Pundit you are losing your mind. Merus right now have no reason to betray uhuru. He has kept his pact with them. What will happen is raila will back 6 super ministers who incase of bbi resurrection will be promised deputy prime ministers. Like njuri says uhuru has a lot of cards to play. The power of incumbency is a big wild card. Uhuru has. Promised that he will sponsor and fund candidates under jubilee. It is hard to compete with such an offer
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Kikuyus are a wildcard. A big wildcard. I think Uda may get more surprised than jubilee. Jubilee is going for retail politics..uda is going for masses. The problem is that key uda support group the youth are poor voters. They never turn out or are easy to buy not vote. Uhuru get out to vote was in 2013 and 2017 was on point.
April is when the formations will take shape. For now uhuru has battle ground coalition shields. Ruto is working on forming his battle ground teams. Until i see each ruto team that will campaign independently it is hard to see how you have him winning in your tribal vensus
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I thought about it and that would unite all GEMA .Infact,It would completely lock out Ruto from Meru, kirinyaga,Embu and tharaka nithi.
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Boss - Uhuru has few generals left - 10Mps left and maybe 3-4 governors- with many slowly moving to UDA
He has no brigadiers, commanders, not even sergeants and even private officers;
He can bark orders but he has to deploy DCS, Chief and Ass thief - because the political class long abandoned him.
He is basically wasting time - the message at bottom doesnt exist.
All Uhuru will get are few folks like you.
Ruto UDA has attracted many candidates for all positions - it's a ticket to die for.
Selling Raila ngumu sana.
Kikuyus are a wildcard. A big wildcard. I think Uda may get more surprised than jubilee. Jubilee is going for retail politics..uda is going for masses. The problem is that key uda support group the youth are poor voters. They never turn out or are easy to buy not vote. Uhuru get out to vote was in 2013 and 2017 was on point.
April is when the formations will take shape. For now uhuru has battle ground coalition shields. Ruto is working on forming his battle ground teams. Until i see each ruto team that will campaign independently it is hard to see how you have him winning in your tribal vensus
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Munya can sell in Mt Kenya East - that is better play than Peter Keneth. Raila can also pick Martha Karua - it would give him some reformist credentials that he now lack having embraced Uhuru and Kanu boys
I thought about it and that would unite all GEMA .Infact,It would completely lock out Ruto from Meru, kirinyaga,Embu and tharaka nithi.
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Pundit now tell us more....kalonzo joins Azimio
If you want it or Not Ruto is under the Mercy of GEMA and Especially Merus. Think hard not emotional
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Pundit now tell us more....kalonzo joins Azimio
If you want it or Not Ruto is under the Mercy of GEMA and Especially Merus. Think hard not emotional
With Munya and Kiraitu in Azimio, DP expect 40% of hustlers in Meru. The loses will be boosted by surging numbers in Western and RV.
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I dont think Kalonzo story has unfolded.
I know Kalonzo - in KANU he talked with Moi - and was last to bolt.
In ODM-K - he was with ODM - until the last minute.
In Jubilee - he was with Uhuru and Ruto in KKK - all over prayer rallies - running ICC shuttle diplomacy
Until he was told to take the 3rd position- he bolted.
Kalonzo is hard-nosed negotiator.
He knows how to wait and strike.
I guess his experience in foreign peace keeping has taught him the art of negotiation.
Pundit now tell us more....kalonzo joins Azimio
If you want it or Not Ruto is under the Mercy of GEMA and Especially Merus. Think hard not emotional
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I see you have some unwelcome news for Pundit
Luhya is 70-30 for Baba
Gachagua is not all that popular and Uhuru has more moves left than Ruto. With Luhya backfire Ruto NEEDS every slice of the mountain
How many kura can Mudavadi bring from luhya? Lets be honest Baba will beat fat Messi in luhya land senseless we talking about 70% of votes to baba. Mudavavdi last time managed about 4% of aluhya votes.
Best bet for Ruto is Kalonzo as dp but then mlima votes might disappear apo ndio utajua should Munya be dp will count.
Kalonzo already lost momentum to 3 kamba governors who endrorsed baba. Kalonzo has no voting block as we speak today
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Dont throw numbers carelessly.
Robina - you have lost since 2010 when you showed up.
Numbers leave it to the experts.
Ruto need 49 percent of GEMA to win PORK - ceteris peribus.
Raila first need Kalonzo. Then he needs 51 percent of GEMA to win PORK.
Ruto right now is playing 70 percent - I was hoping Uhuru would damage this - but given his whimper yesterday - mmm - Ruto is actually going up - might end up with 85 percent...winning POTUS with almost 60 percent.
I see you have some unwelcome news for Pundit
Luhya is 70-30 for Baba
Gachagua is not all that popular and Uhuru has more moves left than Ruto. With Luhya backfire Ruto NEEDS every slice of the mountain
How many kura can Mudavadi bring from luhya? Lets be honest Baba will beat fat Messi in luhya land senseless we talking about 70% of votes to baba. Mudavavdi last time managed about 4% of aluhya votes.
Best bet for Ruto is Kalonzo as dp but then mlima votes might disappear apo ndio utajua should Munya be dp will count.
Kalonzo already lost momentum to 3 kamba governors who endrorsed baba. Kalonzo has no voting block as we speak today
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All dreams are valid. Even the sponsored fake polls - like a dozen per month - don't give Ruto more than 50s in Mt Kenya. He knows spin requires intelligence. Meantime I see you all over sijui Ruto has 35% Kamba - based on one MCA by-election :)
I just need to see your gazillion posts here - and sour grapes at Uhuru :) - I can actually feel the anger & restlessness in Ruto camp.
Dont throw numbers carelessly.
Robina - you have lost since 2010 when you showed up.
Numbers leave it to the experts.
Ruto need 49 percent of GEMA to win PORK - ceteris peribus.
Raila first need Kalonzo. Then he needs 51 percent of GEMA to win PORK.
Ruto right now is playing 70 percent - I was hoping Uhuru would damage this - but given his whimper yesterday - mmm - Ruto is actually going up - might end up with 85 percent...winning POTUS with almost 60 percent.
I see you have some unwelcome news for Pundit
Luhya is 70-30 for Baba
Gachagua is not all that popular and Uhuru has more moves left than Ruto. With Luhya backfire Ruto NEEDS every slice of the mountain
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Pundit now tell us more....kalonzo joins Azimio
If you want it or Not Ruto is under the Mercy of GEMA and Especially Merus. Think hard not emotional
With Munya and Kiraitu in Azimio, DP expect 40% of hustlers in Meru. The loses will be boosted by surging numbers in Western and RV.
Luhyas do not forget easily.
Our innocent villages were attacked by hordes of attackers soon after Jubilee rigged itself to power, simply because Luhyas in exercising their right to cast their votes, Jubilee felt the Luhya were hard headed because they voted for other parties including ANC & Ford-K and not Jubilee. Was that enough reason to deserve all that mayhem? Upto a hundred thugs would descend on a village at a time. We were told in hush tones that the owner of the 'dog' sent to maim us was a top govt official. It does not matter for how long it will take, but to expect that the same govt official will come fishing for votes (in his hour of need) in Western is foolhardy to the extreme. Tangatanga may think the youth because of hopelessness & unemployment are gullible but I guarantee in those 10+ villages that were attacked where they still carry the scars, expect zero votes for Kwenya Kwisha.
Not to forget Adrian Muteshi, twenty years his senior - of Western - died without compensation even after a court found the DP guilty of land grabbing after earlier clashes.
https://www.hrw.org/report/2014/04/24/we-were-sent-kill-you/gang-attacks-western-kenya-and-governments-failed-response