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Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: KenyanPlato on November 23, 2021, 06:03:18 AM

Title: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on November 23, 2021, 06:03:18 AM
I will post this channel updates. The guy in it is embedded with TDF and has very good English coverage. He is analyzing news and providing insights. The other thread should stay for debate



"A BRAVE MAN EVERY SOIL IS HIS COUNTRY"
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on November 23, 2021, 05:56:43 PM
Abiy and his cabinet have left for the battle field. They want to rally for human waves to defend Addis. Haki African politicians are crazy. How do you send waves of civilian to fight an army.

Amhara militia and govt forces have launched an offensive in several battle fields. In a matter of days we will know if they will succeed in their last ditch effort to stop rebels advance

Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on November 24, 2021, 07:30:47 PM
Seems Abiy has armed citizens in Addis with sticks to confront TDF. Lol 😆  I was women with big sticks conducting  traffic stops. This is just sad. As soon as these sticks weild morons hear motors fire and gun shots they will be in bed. I hope if TDF shows up in Addis they just get a pass to avoid any civilian and property destruction

Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on November 25, 2021, 09:13:56 AM
Good analysis. Debre Sina and Debre Bahr - the last defence before Adis Ababa. It appears Ethiopia has hired 1,000 Russian Vagna - as mercenaries.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on November 25, 2021, 05:38:45 PM
Good analysis. Debre Sina and Debre Bahr - the last defence before Adis Ababa. It appears Ethiopia has hired 1,000 Russian Vagna - as mercenaries.
Good analysis. Abiy forces are circled. Seems Oromia regional govt may give TDF a pass through. One of regional coalition party has given demands for a transition govt.

Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: mankind on November 25, 2021, 08:25:55 PM

    This war is getting complicated. Another Syrian situation in the making.

   
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on November 25, 2021, 10:04:43 PM
Eua has been funding and supplying arms for the last 3 months. This is just a confirmation using evidence.

Below video is important. It is from Aj Zeera which we know can be biased but it has very good pertinent information.
Key points.
1) endf is defending 5 battle fronts. This makes it almost impossible for the army. This right there is a genius of TDF.

2) Abiy purge of the military was so deep. The claim is that he dismissed 70,000 Tigrayans. If that is true then it even makes abiy seem so stupid. Those 70k soldiers are now with TDF.
3) Abiy may have transferred power to deputy pm and left. There is no visual confirmation of his whereabouts.
4) No future role for Abiy is envisaged.

Ignore the first few minutes of govt minister. The rest is interesting.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on November 25, 2021, 10:16:38 PM
Yeap - TDF have 5 fronts - and in some sections have met with OLF.
Very soon they are joining OLF who control a huge area
Abiy has certainly escaped - probably amry generals want him hanged

TDF really played this like boss. They were disciplined and tactical - withdraw without a fight to tough mountains. Look like they decoyed in the mountain - destroyed half the army in there - and now are matching almost unperturbed.

Follow this map - for advancement
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1q-M9x3Kshld2Ys36jDU0Y45TmvE7E0km&hl=en&ll=10.069997465342334%2C39.302047557812486&z=8

Eua has been funding and supplying arms for the last 3 months. This is just a confirmation using evidence.

Below video is important. It is from Aj Zeera which we know can be biased but it has very good pertinent information.
Key points.
1) endf is defending 5 battle fronts. This makes it almost impossible for the army. This right there is a genius of TDF.

2) Abiy purge of the military was so deep. The claim is that he dismissed 70,000 Tigrayans. If that is true then it even makes abiy seem so stupid. Those 70k soldiers are now with TDF.
3) Abiy may have transferred power to deputy pm and left. There is no visual confirmation of his whereabouts.
4) No future role for Abiy is envisaged.

Ignore the first few minutes of govt minister. The rest is interesting.

Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on November 26, 2021, 04:47:29 PM
Abiy releases statement while in the Bush
https://mobile.twitter.com/AbiyAhmedAli/status/1464210290900410390
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on November 26, 2021, 04:49:57 PM
Look like he is gone to Afar region. TDF are struggling in Afar region because it's flat terrain...it's make them susceptible to air strikes. But in the mountains they are able to hide...and wage guerrilla attacks.
Abiy releases statement while in the Bush
https://mobile.twitter.com/AbiyAhmedAli/status/1464210290900410390

Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Stockguru on November 26, 2021, 10:05:01 PM
Look like he is gone to Afar region. TDF are struggling in Afar region because it's flat terrain...it's make them susceptible to air strikes. But in the mountains they are able to hide...and wage guerrilla attacks.
Abiy releases statement while in the Bush
https://mobile.twitter.com/AbiyAhmedAli/status/1464210290900410390


This is the same location that ENDF via state media had claimed to have retaken on November 13th. Abiy is lying. We will know by mid next week
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on November 27, 2021, 12:16:31 AM
Yes very likely - the top ethiopia officials are evacuating their families out of Adis - they know things could turn bad very rapidly. Key turning point is Debre Bihran.

TDF are struggling in Debre Sinai - that is like Nakuru - and Debre Bihran is Naivasha. Mekelle is like Kampala or further so they have come along way.  120kms can be covered in a week or even less...depending on the panic of Ethiopia leadership. Every defeat of the EDNF sucks their morale and energy to fight...eventually in Adis the army guys will dress as civilian and give them a free pass.

And the TDF are moving in 5 fronts - with OLF already doing their usual shooting around Adis - what OLF lacks is the strategic and heavy push that TDF/TPLF have....and now their merger means its a question of time.

In a week TDF could even decide to attack Adis from the South...in OLF territory.

As long as Amhara state army and militia have failed to stop TDF - it's over for Abbiy. His own Oromo cant wait to see his back.

This is the same location that ENDF via state media had claimed to have retaken on November 13th. Abiy is lying. We will know by mid next week
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on November 27, 2021, 06:41:37 AM
This channel disputes any advantage of taking of the small village kasagita. Endf offensive didn't take off as was promised. It is has died with only claim of taking a small village that has no strategic importance plus this amhara militia that only has pick ups and not well equipped
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: mankind on November 28, 2021, 01:58:52 AM
  Proxy wars continue. Another Syria loading.

 

 
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on November 28, 2021, 02:04:44 AM
Syria is two religious factions - ethiopia is yugoslavia...if tdf find its too hard ...they will split the country or do a loose federation..instead of federal state of ethioia..it would be a unitesd state of ethiopia. Each region with a president instead of a governor
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Stockguru on November 28, 2021, 02:40:59 AM
Syria is two religious factions - ethiopia is yugoslavia...if tdf find its too hard ...they will split the country or do a loose federation..instead of federal state of ethioia..it would be a unitesd state of ethiopia. Each region with a president instead of a governor

Yes, I do not Tigray will ever allow Addis Abba to call shots for them. If Tigray votes to leave Ethiopia everyone else will start to do so. So far TDF has split Amhara region. Oromia region will be making a decision soon. Seems one Faction in Oromia wants out, if the second one agrees and they tactically support TDF it is over Abiy. If TDF just secures one faction support then it goes with the decision to leave the current set up and split the country

This could be a serious civil war that end up with millions dead. The drought season just started. In a few months bodies will be dropping right and left if they are not already


The fact that Eritrea is being used by Abiy just hardens Tigray resolve to see this through or destroy the who current set up
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on November 28, 2021, 08:12:33 AM
Oromia is gone. TDF made similar deal with Eritrean rebels when they were kicking out Mengistu. If Eritrean rebels assited them - they would let them become independent. They did.

TDF agreement with OLF is simple - we win - we hold referendum in Oromia - you go seperate. TDF as much as they want to rule again knows it going to be hard without public backing - Oromos and Amharas do not want Tigrays lording over them again. So its likely their first business would be to hold referendum in Tigray and Oromia - and split the country. Tigrays can punish the Amharas by adding over Adis to Oromos.

So it's likely Ethiopia will splinter into seperate countries or a loose federation.

So we will have Oromia, Ogaden, Ethiopia, Tigrayian, Afar and even Gambela as independent countries...joining the mess in Somalia, Somaliland, Puntland, Jubbaland, Djibutti.

If not - Tigrays will probably go for united ethiopia - go all the way to asmara and kick out Eritreans - and enact Rwanda like dictatorship

Yes, I do not Tigray will ever allow Addis Abba to call shots for them. If Tigray votes to leave Ethiopia everyone else will start to do so. So far TDF has split Amhara region. Oromia region will be making a decision soon. Seems one Faction in Oromia wants out, if the second one agrees and they tactically support TDF it is over Abiy. If TDF just secures one faction support then it goes with the decision to leave the current set up and split the country

This could be a serious civil war that end up with millions dead. The drought season just started. In a few months bodies will be dropping right and left if they are not already


The fact that Eritrea is being used by Abiy just hardens Tigray resolve to see this through or destroy the who current set up
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: mankind on November 29, 2021, 11:14:41 PM

   Looks like the tide is turning against Tplf according to this report

   
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on November 30, 2021, 12:14:05 AM
As TDF suffered losses in Afar region - they are sorrounding Debre Bihran

Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: mankind on November 30, 2021, 05:44:48 AM

   This war is mostly turned into an information warfare.

 
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Stockguru on November 30, 2021, 06:15:10 AM

   This war is mostly turned into an information warfare.

 

this a Walmart type of Analyst. A Mzungu playing up his white card to milk Ethiopian Govt
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: mankind on December 01, 2021, 12:53:39 AM
 
 
  Theres more
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: mankind on December 01, 2021, 01:57:45 AM

 
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on December 02, 2021, 03:12:28 AM
Already refugees are in Kenya
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on December 02, 2021, 10:52:50 AM
Abbiy Ethiopia still have some weapon - bombing of Sudan

Another video shows the bombing of the Sudanese army by the Ethiopian army after the Ethiopian attack on the Shai Bet area in Al-Fashqa this morning, Wednesday.

Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on December 02, 2021, 02:52:13 PM
Who is bombing Sudan or Ethiopia?
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on December 02, 2021, 02:54:31 PM
Ethiopia. I think Sudan started. Ethiopia responded with mortars.
Who is bombing Sudan or Ethiopia?
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on December 02, 2021, 08:11:18 PM
Tigray getting a hidding - and Adis is safe for now. Fortunes have changed unless this tactical retreat. TDF have no answer for the airforce bombing.

Look like a long civil war is on card...it's going to be a stalemate for a long time.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1q-M9x3Kshld2Ys36jDU0Y45TmvE7E0km&hl=en&ll=10.051611399999999%2C39.942524800000015&z=9
The ENDF+ARSF+Fano are advancing in large numbers north along the A2 highway amidst a large retreat of the TDF+OLA. Many towns along the road are expected to have been recaptured or will be recaptured shortly.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: mankind on December 03, 2021, 02:33:29 AM
 As I noted earlier this is mostly an information war. Seems it started way longer than we think. Listen to this interview and be the judge.

   
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on December 04, 2021, 06:40:11 AM
Abiy airforce giving TDF a hidding. But TDF have been smart to withdraw and avoid battle. It takes discipline to do that. When weak - withdraw - and re-strategize.

Over the course of a week the TDF is visually confirmed to have lost at least 10 armored vehicles.
-1 T-72
-3 T-62s
-5 T-55s
-1 Type 89
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on December 09, 2021, 12:12:26 PM
According to this guy who has been credible - it appears these is some cease-fire agreement - as Ethiopia forces are not attacking retreating TDF.

I guess there is probably deal to allow Tigray region to become independent. This would be smart thing to do for Baby Abiy.


Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on December 12, 2021, 07:49:49 AM
The drones have crippled tdf completely. Now endf has blocked their retreat out of amahara and seems like abiy is convinced endf can end them Here. The next two weeks will determine if endf will force a surrender or it may force tdf to just fight for its survival. Tdf needs an answer to these drones, if not they must dig in for a long war. Sajid is claiming that the economic damage to Ethiopia is extensive and it will take 20 years and over 30 years of Amhara and Tigray regions to recover. A famine could be what eventually removes abiy from power.

What tigray can do is if they are militarily defeated is to allow endf to March to mekele..this would put the problem of feeding and reconstruction into the hands to abiy and I suspect he doesn't want this responsibility
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on December 12, 2021, 08:32:59 AM
In the mountains the drones are not effective as they cannot manuouvre and that is why tdf retreat was a tactical move.TDF cannot acquire drones as they are not a country...so this mean they have to drag the war to mountains like Taliban did and drag the war for a while
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on December 12, 2021, 09:36:52 AM
In the mountains the drones are not effective as they cannot manuouvre and that is why tdf retreat was a tactical move.TDF cannot acquire drones as they are not a country...so this mean they have to drag the war to mountains like Taliban did and drag the war for a while

If they drag this war for another 6 months Ethiopia govt may find it hard for it to keep funding the war. What tdf has to do is hit amhara regional govt and run. Just keep the militias and endf on wild goose chase and with time someone within abiy in er circle will take him out
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on December 12, 2021, 09:41:35 AM
Yeah they have to hope that western nations sanctions on Abiy will slow him down. I also agree on opening offensive toward Amhara regional gov...and defending against Eritrea and Afar on the eastside.
If they drag this war for another 6 months Ethiopia govt may find it hard for it to keep funding the war. What tdf has to do is hit amhara regional govt and run. Just keep the militias and endf on wild goose chase and with time someone within abiy in er circle will take him out
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on December 13, 2021, 01:25:41 PM
TDF recapture Lalibela and Gashena.

Njuri thought the war was over :)

https://mobile.twitter.com/MapEthiopia
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on December 14, 2021, 11:36:48 PM
Look like TDF may have decided to go West to Amhara HQ first - Bahir Dar in Lake Tana - rather than to Adis Abab
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on December 18, 2021, 06:41:20 PM
TDF has retreated out of Amhara. Endf has the advantage and may head into Tigray region. Endf and Amhara forces have really done well in the last 2 weeks. Seems TDF is demoralized and just retreating.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on December 18, 2021, 09:32:50 PM
Yeah without local population support..they are on their back..losing woldiya is big setback..look like they have to retreat back to Tigrayan..they still have lalibella https://mobile.twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1472240277985366022
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on December 20, 2021, 06:17:42 AM
As I noted earlier this is mostly an information war. Seems it started way longer than we think. Listen to this interview and be the judge.

   

Tplf propaganda is top notch. They have been in power for 30 years so they have networks all the world. Tplf claims it was a preemptive strike against abiy and Eritrea plans to invade their region.

The problem with Abiy supporters is that they were late in getting on the information war. Abiy has no experience or deep connections. The govt info war is being left to diaspora activists and other Ethiopians. It is too uncoordinated to win against the tpfl machinery.

This discussion was interesting but is not something new to me. I knew tpfl was very good in controlling information and in disinformation.

Ethiopians are in a terrible predicament. Their nation has been under almost century of dictatorship. There is very limited freedom of speech in that country. This war has just opened the ethnic fissure wide open. It will hard to mend these fissures.

Blaming western media is convenient but the corporate media is in the pockets of interests groups and whatever the interest of Washington or Buckingham is where they will be.

A journalist given 200 words to explain such a complex country will only do a very superficial narrative in hope it will catch the readers attention.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on December 20, 2021, 06:30:18 PM
TDF back to their homeland

Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on December 20, 2021, 07:03:08 PM
Tigray cry to UNSC to impose no fly zone and arm sales embargo on Ethiopia

Baby Abiy respond with a drone attack.

UNSC expected to discuss Ethiopia today

Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: mankind on December 20, 2021, 09:25:00 PM
  Some response from Ethiopians on the offer
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on December 20, 2021, 09:43:49 PM
TDF back to their homeland


They should pursue them and destroy them while they are down.  America is still dealing with repercussions of not obliterating the South and locking up or hanging the instigators during their civil war.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on December 21, 2021, 12:12:57 AM
TDF back to their homeland


They should pursue them and destroy them while they are down.  America is still dealing with repercussions of not obliterating the South and locking up or hanging the instigators during their civil war.

Let us see. Abiy has a chance to be an emperor.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: mankind on December 21, 2021, 02:56:01 AM
 We are staring at the same craziness here too according to this article.

  https://www.newsweek.com/2021/12/31/millions-angry-armed-americans-stand-ready-seize-power-if-trump-loses-2024-1660953.html
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on December 21, 2021, 04:35:45 AM
We are staring at the same craziness here too according to this article.

  https://www.newsweek.com/2021/12/31/millions-angry-armed-americans-stand-ready-seize-power-if-trump-loses-2024-1660953.html

Biden should appoint a hit squad to deal with these morons. They ought to be ruthless and not just make them retreat but put their leadership in Graves. Time too has come for 🇺🇸 to think on question of Trump. There is only one efficient way of ending his cult.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on December 21, 2021, 10:08:23 AM
Easier said than done. Without local population support; it very expensive to put troops on the ground. So this stalemate will become a border dispute. For Baby Emperor Abiy, he can sustain this war longer if he avoid human rights violations, allow food aid to flow, and respect the UN.

While China and Russia seem reluctantly to impose sanctions...nothing stops the US and their Western friends from imposing crippling bilateral sanctions on Ethiopia. They should ask Iran.

Let see if he will allows recently formed Ethiopia human rights probe to start work - if refuse entry to Ethiopia - Sanctions will come - if not from the UNSC - then from those countries - pretty much EU and US.

With the toll of war (destruction on critical infrastructures) and such sanctions - Ethiopia - will go back to stone age that Meles Zenawi found in 1990.

They should pursue them and destroy them while they are down.  America is still dealing with repercussions of not obliterating the South and locking up or hanging the instigators during their civil war.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on December 21, 2021, 05:43:28 PM
Easier said than done. Without local population support; it very expensive to put troops on the ground. So this stalemate will become a border dispute. For Baby Emperor Abiy, he can sustain this war longer if he avoid human rights violations, allow food aid to flow, and respect the UN.

While China and Russia seem reluctantly to impose sanctions...nothing stops the US and their Western friends from imposing crippling bilateral sanctions on Ethiopia. They should ask Iran.

Let see if he will allows recently formed Ethiopia human rights probe to start work - if refuse entry to Ethiopia - Sanctions will come - if not from the UNSC - then from those countries - pretty much EU and US.

With the toll of war (destruction on critical infrastructures) and such sanctions - Ethiopia - will go back to stone age that Meles Zenawi found in 1990.

They should pursue them and destroy them while they are down.  America is still dealing with repercussions of not obliterating the South and locking up or hanging the instigators during their civil war.

It depends on how strong TPLF currently is.  If Ethiopia can finish them off, they should.  They can deal with the geopolitics after that.  It's a war, so human rights are going to be compromised no matter what; of course they should try and minimize them.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on December 22, 2021, 09:17:26 AM
Abiy has no intention of ceasefire and enters southern tigray - captures towns

Invalid Tweet ID
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on December 22, 2021, 03:02:40 PM
Abiy has no intention of ceasefire and enters southern tigray - captures towns

Invalid Tweet ID

He gonna get what he is looking for. The idiot is really taking this country towards a path more destruction. He won't listen because Ethiopia seems to be having more radicals and ignorant people than intellectuals. There is something about Ethiopians that I am yet to define what is that shows them to be very unreasonable radicalized people.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on December 22, 2021, 03:06:23 PM
Yes it's like Somali. Those guys are all radicals. Even small difference btw clans like Somalia are resolved by sword fights. Kenyans our difference are superficial. Those guys really hate each other. Even interrmarriage is tough.

It almost impossible to find those guys sharing anything unless they are from same tribe or clan or sub tribe. Kenyans we just shout - but still eat, dine, marry, name it together.

Our wars are superficial - their beef is historical. Our tribalism is a joke. A luo will marry a Kikuyu. A kikuyu will have Luo as his best friend. A Kalenjin just after war will be taking dowry to a kikuyu.

He gonna get what he is looking for. The idiot is really taking this country towards a path more destruction. He won't listen because Ethiopia seems to be having more radicals and ignorant people than intellectuals. There is something about Ethiopians that I am yet to define what is that shows them to be very unreasonable radicalized people.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on December 22, 2021, 03:34:00 PM
Yes, I noticed that even at my previous job you will see Ethiopians not interacting with each other much. I thought may be because it was a vast country they were not close to each other but this war has proved that these guys just hate each other to death. The nationalism thing is just a unity of purpose to deal with tigrayans but these guys need to go separate ways and form a federation. There is no country there
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on December 22, 2021, 03:52:39 PM
Abiy has no intention of ceasefire and enters southern tigray - captures towns

Invalid Tweet ID

He gonna get what he is looking for. The idiot is really taking this country towards a path more destruction. He won't listen because Ethiopia seems to be having more radicals and ignorant people than intellectuals. There is something about Ethiopians that I am yet to define what is that shows them to be very unreasonable radicalized people.

I get that they are a federation.  But I don't see what he is doing as different from what any recognized leader of any other country would do in his situation.  We know what would happen in the US if Texas tried to secede.  The government will reclaim the entire state before giving consideration, if any, to their demands.  And this would happen even though many would be happy to see Texas go and build a wall to keep them out. 

On the question of radicalization /extremism, I am seeing it as a global problem currently.  I get a sense of the gradual collapse of the order that came out of World War II.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on December 22, 2021, 04:25:52 PM
Bitmask,
This is not a case of Tigrayans trying to secede. They are being forced to consider this choice. The problem is a political one where abiy wants to recentralize power. Ethiopians feel that the ethnic federation that was negotiated during tplf years in power is not good and they want to replace it. Abiy has taken this opportunity to try and weaken the ethnic federation and take that power to make himself a dictator for life. Tigray never choose this war it was imposed on them by Abiy. He used the political differences to invite plan to invade tigray with help of Eritrea. General Tsadkan who is leading tigray forces was in Abiy government until he resigned when he found out abiy intentions were. He had split from tplf leadership and joined abiy.

Without solving the political issue the war is useless and a waste of time. There is no way abiy will be able to take the power from the regions. Even right now if amhara and afar regions had a political fall out with abiy he has no way of controlling them. Endf is weak without regional militias.

Bottomline is Ethiopians want to address historical injustices by punishing Tigrayans. To me that is waste of time and the best solution is to look forward.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on December 22, 2021, 04:45:46 PM
Bitmask,
This is not a case of Tigrayans trying to secede. They are being forced to consider this choice. The problem is a political one where abiy wants to recentralize power. Ethiopians feel that the ethnic federation that was negotiated during tplf years in power is not good and they want to replace it. Abiy has taken this opportunity to try and weaken the ethnic federation and take that power to make himself a dictator for life. Tigray never choose this war it was imposed on them by Abiy. He used the political differences to invite plan to invade tigray with help of Eritrea. General Tsadkan who is leading tigray forces was in Abiy government until he resigned when he found out abiy intentions were. He had split from tplf leadership and joined abiy.

Without solving the political issue the war is useless and a waste of time. There is no way abiy will be able to take the power from the regions. Even right now if amhara and afar regions had a political fall out with abiy he has no way of controlling them. Endf is weak without regional militias.

Bottomline is Ethiopians want to address historical injustices by punishing Tigrayans. To me that is waste of time and the best solution is to look forward.

Ethiopia says Tigray attacked first.  If that is true(I am not saying it is), then their actions would be consistent with the expected behavior of a modern government.  If Abiy really believes what he says, then he is acting rationally.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on December 22, 2021, 04:48:33 PM
Yes it's like Somali. Those guys are all radicals. Even small difference btw clans like Somalia are resolved by sword fights. Kenyans our difference are superficial. Those guys really hate each other. Even interrmarriage is tough.

It almost impossible to find those guys sharing anything unless they are from same tribe or clan or sub tribe. Kenyans we just shout - but still eat, dine, marry, name it together.

Our wars are superficial - their beef is historical. Our tribalism is a joke. A luo will marry a Kikuyu. A kikuyu will have Luo as his best friend. A Kalenjin just after war will be taking dowry to a kikuyu.

He gonna get what he is looking for. The idiot is really taking this country towards a path more destruction. He won't listen because Ethiopia seems to be having more radicals and ignorant people than intellectuals. There is something about Ethiopians that I am yet to define what is that shows them to be very unreasonable radicalized people.

That's because in that region, Kenyan groups were more tribal(as opposed to nation states/kingdoms).  They are therefore less set in their ways and more open to foreign influence and subsequently more tolerant of differences.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on December 22, 2021, 04:59:29 PM
Insightful. That make sense.
That's because in that region, Kenyan groups were more tribal(as opposed to nation states/kingdoms).  They are therefore less set in their ways and more open to foreign influence and subsequently more tolerant of differences.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on December 22, 2021, 05:05:20 PM
I think issue started with 2020 election. Baby Abiy postponed it citing COVID-19. Tigray went ahead and did the elections - and called Abiy illegitimate.
The central issues is Abiy attempt to centralize power - by forming prosperity party.
Previously each nation had their own parties.
Some were active in the regions - while others would form coalition nationally.

In any case that is water under the bridge. The war is on. The advantage has swing back to Abiy. Six months ago Abiy forces were fleeing Tigray. Now they are back with drones.

How will Tigray respond to this? They go and hide in their hills?

Right now they are asking their allies in Western to impose non flight zone and embargo on arm sales....but will China and Turkey respect that...nope.

Tigray options are now severely limited - because Turkish drones are doing heavy damage.

Ethiopia says Tigray attacked first.  If that is true(I am not saying it is), then their actions would be consistent with the expected behavior of a modern government.  If Abiy really believes what he says, then he is acting rationally.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Nowayhaha on December 22, 2021, 09:57:17 PM
Hope by now you accept Njuri was right from start.
Same thing or worse will happen if so called warriors try to take on the government.

I think issue started with 2020 election. Baby Abiy postponed it citing COVID-19. Tigray went ahead and did the elections - and called Abiy illegitimate.
The central issues is Abiy attempt to centralize power - by forming prosperity party.
Previously each nation had their own parties.
Some were active in the regions - while others would form coalition nationally.

In any case that is water under the bridge. The war is on. The advantage has swing back to Abiy. Six months ago Abiy forces were fleeing Tigray. Now they are back with drones.

How will Tigray respond to this? They go and hide in their hills?

Right now they are asking their allies in Western to impose non flight zone and embargo on arm sales....but will China and Turkey respect that...nope.

Tigray options are now severely limited - because Turkish drones are doing heavy damage.

Ethiopia says Tigray attacked first.  If that is true(I am not saying it is), then their actions would be consistent with the expected behavior of a modern government.  If Abiy really believes what he says, then he is acting rationally.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on December 22, 2021, 10:11:35 PM
Every fool like a broken clock is right every 24hours. That is how I treat Njuri. It's important to make sound arguments - than to be right or wrong. It easy for anybody to back a bully like Ethiopia gov - but I still think Tigrays have outdone themselves. Turkish pilots driving the drones have altered this war...but I believe Tigray can find a way to achieve parity.
As for warriors...they better watch out..for drones out there :)
Hope by now you accept Njuri was right from start.
Same thing or worse will happen if so called warriors try to take on the government.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Stockguru on December 23, 2021, 12:07:30 AM
Ethiopians better reconcile quickly. They need to look ahead and forget the past.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on December 23, 2021, 09:45:02 PM
Look like there might be ceasefire.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on December 23, 2021, 10:24:14 PM
Seems baby abiy doesn't want to give tplf more smoke. Ethiopia is a basket case. They have gone back to stone age. This why authotarianism can never bring long lasting economic prosperity. They better embrace
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on December 23, 2021, 10:38:05 PM
It going to be interesting - what does Tigray want - and what does Abiy want. Tigray I think want referendum held as per Ethiopia constitution for provinces or nations that want to secede to invoke the secession article. Will Baby Abiy agree?  And who will be in charge of referendum - maybe UN mandated referendum for secession. Baby Abiy has not managed to change Meles Zenawi constitution...so technical he has no argument to stop the Tigray state from insisting on a referendum.

If Tigray vote for secession..as it almost forgone...then other regions could follow and ethiopia might split into 8 countries.

Oromos want to take Adis..Amhara feel Adis is theirs...Ogaden want to form their own Somali state.

Baby Abiy may of course say Tigray is illegally in office = having held election earlier - than rest of Ethipia/

Seems baby abiy doesn't want to give tplf more smoke. Ethiopia is a basket case. They have gone back to stone age. This why authotarianism can never bring long lasting economic prosperity. They better embrace
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: mankind on December 24, 2021, 03:32:19 AM
 
  Look at the shame negroes are displaying because of power.

     
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Stockguru on December 26, 2021, 10:15:57 PM
Pertinent Issues on the War in Tigray 9 min read. The Ethio-Eritrean war against the people of Tigray has entered a new phase, following the decision of the Government of the National Regional State of Tigray to redeploy its forces to the borders of Tigray, announced by the leadership on December 19. For the people of Tigray, it is fundamentally a war for survival. 508 Published 13 hours ago on December 26, 2021By Tsadkan Gebretensae Download PDFPrint Article December 24, 2021 The aims of the leadership of Tigray in the war in Ethiopia are, first, to save the people of Tigray from a genocidal onslaught including forced starvation and, second, to establish an all-inclusive government for Ethiopia as a whole. There is no intention to install a government in Addis Ababa led by the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF). Instead, we want the people of Tigray to govern themselves within a multi-national federal system. Eleven months ago after the first round of fighting in which, the people of Tigray were facing a coordinated campaign of destruction from the governments in Ethiopia and Eritrea, the leadership of Tigray, including the TPLF and others, met together to decide how to respond. The Central Command was established to serve as the highest decision making body with regard to the war effort. The Central Command under the regional government of Tigray is leading the whole war effort including the activities of the TDF (Tigray Defense Forces) up to now.  I am a member of the Central Command but the views I am expressing here are my personal views and should not be taken to reflect the views of the Tigray Government and Central Command. In June, after our forces liberated most of Tigray, the Central Command issued an eight point proposal for talks with the Federal Government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, which we hoped would lead to a ceasefire and a peaceful settlement. Abiy did not respond to those proposals and continually rejected the efforts of international interlocutors. He refused to meet our non-negotiable precondition which is ending the war crime of starvation by permitting humanitarian aid and restoring essential services. Although the starvation of our people is not on your television screens, it is real. Every day, children and their mothers are perishing of hunger. Our people are dying needlessly from treatable diseases because our hospitals have no medicine. Abiy made it perfectly clear that he intended to crush the sprite of resistance to subjugation in Tigray through a starvation siege. In this context the Central Command took the decision to pursue the war, joining forces with other groups to establish a United Front. This includes organizations from Oromo, Somali, Afar, Agaw and others. The biggest of these groups is the Oromo Liberation Army. There was and still is a desire to include other political forces including Amhara political forces as well. We are fighting to protect the principles of the Federal Constitution of Ethiopia, starting with the cherished affirmation that sovereign legitimacy resides in the nations, nationalities and peoples of Ethiopia. Abiy, on the other hand, is fighting to overturn the constitution. The Amhara elites continually talk about an Ethiopia that is greater than its people. They are ready to kill for this ideology and they are sending thousands of young people to die for it. These elites claim legitimacy for their group only, looking backwards to the era when Ethiopia was an Amhara-ruled empire. We have experienced this kind of ultra-nationalism in the past and it neither secured national territorial integrity nor protected the central government from collapse. Instead, the project of a centralized Ethiopian empire led to war and destruction in all corners of our country. This was why the 1995 Ethiopian constitution, which remains in place today, defines the country as the voluntary unity of its peoples within a federal system. The Tigray Central Command pursued the war in order to compel the government to negotiate on equal terms and, failing that, to replace it with an all-inclusive Transitional Government. Foreign and domestic political forces were apprehensive of a repeat of 1991, referring to the military victory of the TPLF and its coalition partners in that year. We made it clear that the political landscape both in Tigray and Ethiopia have changed so much so that there is no option for such a scenario. Moreover, Tigray cannot shoulder the responsibility for reconstituting the Ethiopian state, especially so without any agreed domestic political arrangement and clear international support. Our political discussions within the United Front and other political forces which were yet to be part of the coalition were proceeding more slowly than our military advance, which reached the outskirts of the city of Debre Birhan, just 145 km from Addis Ababa. The prospect that we would march into the capital city caused panic mainly among the internationals and to some extent Ethiopians as well. We understand that fear. We also want those who are dismayed about the   safety of the capital to understand the intolerable suffering and the threat of continuing genocide that the Tigrayan people are living under every day. This was the reason for our decision to march towards Addis Ababa.  We hoped the political developments, both international and domestic, would catch up by then as well. This did not happen. We appreciate that many around the world, including the U.S., the European Union, and the international media, have exposed the grievous violations against our people and demanded that they stop. We were hopeful that the matter would be raised at the UN Security Council which would act on its obligations to uphold fundamental norms about humanity and act energetically to promote a peaceful resolution of the conflict. But China and Russia consistently blocked any efforts. It appears to us that they did so because they saw the war in terms of the balance of geo-strategic power, and sacrificed principles for political point-scoring, abandoning people to die out of their narrow mindedness. Regrettably, Western nations actions did not go beyond rhetoric. They appealed for a cessation of hostilities and for humanitarian access, but in practice these were empty gestures. They did not use the diplomatic and economic tools in their hands. Worse, the rhetoric of western governments and the silence of the African Union gave Abiy the pretext to adopt slogans of anti-imperialism and pan-Africanism which in turn allowed China and Russia, along with Iran, Turkey and the UAE, to sell arms. Tigray got words, Abiy got weapons. The best that can be said for those supporting Abiy is that his backers believe they are protecting the Ethiopian state from collapse. They are misinformed. They are saving a government in name only. Our forces encounter this on the battlefield: the Ethiopian National Defense Force is kitted out in uniforms and has modern equipment, ranks and units, but it fights like a rag-tag horde of feudal levies, backed by an air force and drones supplied by foreigners. Administrative structures have collapsed across the country. Salaries are not paid, schoolchildren are sent to harvest the fields. The foreign ministry has been replaced by campaigns on Twitter and Facebook. The peace and security architecture for the Horn, which was painstakingly built by Ethiopias diplomats and peacekeepers in partnership with the African Union and United Nations, has been summarily demolished. In fact, Abiy is implementing the blueprint of Isaias Afwerki, dictator of Eritrea. This is to build a trio of autocrats: Isaias, Abiy and the Somali president Mohamed Farmaajo. For Ethiopia this means a dictator in Addis Ababa ruling over a weak and fragmented state, all under the heel of Eritrea. The Ethiopian state under Abiy Ahmed and his Amhara interlocutors is being used as a Trojan Horse for the unbridled and oversized ambition of Isaias Afewerki, who he himself is serving as an agent of the Middle Eastern countries. I would like to make one thing clear, if the resistance in Tigray is crushed by the combined forces of the Ethiopian federal government, Amhara forces, and their backers in the Middle East (Turkey, UAE, and Iran) the floodgates for Isaias to implement his blueprint will be open. The region of the Horn of Africa will be run as per the dictat of the Eritrean dictator. Is the international community, Africa and the region willing to live with the impending scenario? If the answer to the question posed is no, the time to act is now. The Ethiopian government has begged and borrowed and sold its assets to get arms from foreign powers who have little knowledge about the country and less goodwill. No amount of jingoistic rhetoric can conceal that Abiy has made Ethiopia into a beggar. Those who are putting coins on his plate today will want him to sing for them tomorrow. Where Middle Eastern powers have poured in their weapons and money, and the international community has recognized a government in name only, we do not see stability. In Libya, Syria and Yemen we see the reality of state collapse. The government becomes a client of its biggest paymasters and the country becomes locked in unending conflict. We need to save Ethiopia from this fate. The U.S. government expressed its serious concern over the maintenance and continuity of the Ethiopian state. It stated its intention to bring a rapid resolution to the war through negotiation. Washington DC openly opposed the advance of the TDF to Addis Ababa, threatening the government of Tigray with sanctions if our forces approached the city. On the other hand, the U.S. expressed no strategy (at least to us) to end the war except appeasing Abiy Ahmed with flattery. The policy of appeasement has not brought any solution before and it will not bring fast resolution of the conflict and save the Ethiopian state either. In my opinion the fastest way to end the conflict has now evaporated. In this context, the TDF is fighting absolutely alone. It has no international allies and no military or other material assistance from abroad. Tigrayan people do not even receive humanitarian aid. The Tigrayan people are few, impoverished but gallant and with a strong sense of identity. We have a long and proud history of fighting against invaders of our land and we are repeating the heroic feats of our predecessors. Our forces did not advance on Addis Ababa. In the last two weeks, the effects of swarms of drones on the TDF advanced positions and supply lines has been substantial. Personnel of Eritrean armored divisions are in daily combat within the ranks of the ENDF. Eritrean forces still occupy substantial parts of Tigray. In these circumstances, with long and vulnerable supply lines to our forces, and no effective international political process for a negotiated settlement, the Government of regional state of Tigray through the Central command decided to withdraw to defensive positions to consolidate our forces. A withdrawal under drone fire is a difficult military operation which we have accomplished successfully. We are undefeated. Over the last few days, the Ethio-Eritrean coalition forces attempted to penetrate our lines, from south, west and east. They were repulsed with heavy losses. After these setbacks the regime in Addis Ababa announced that it had completed phase one of its operation and would not be continuing its attacks. This statement, coupled with the previously announced position of the National Regional Government of Tigray for a ceasefire, opens an opportunity for the international community, led by Kenya, to press for a cessation of hostilities and initiate peace talks. If this does not happen, the war will continue not only in Tigray but in other places in Ethiopia as well. There will be more loss of lives; economic destruction and whatever political and social fabric that might have persisted up to now will be destroyed which means saving the Ethiopian multinational federal state as we know it becomes very difficult. Now the regime of Abiy Ahmed could be preparing to initiate an inclusive dialogue controlled and monitored by itself. He is trying hard to make the world believe him he has defeated the rebels and would offer them to be part of this inclusive dialogue, as individuals not as the TPLF. Some in the international community might support his idea as well. This process will not work. Any inclusive dialogue should be done by neutral bodies with the participation of the major political forces in Ethiopia sponsored and supported by the international community. The mechanism could be worked out with the assistance of experts on the field. We hope that African countries will rise to the challenge of hosting and facilitating the conference. There must be a political solution to the war in Ethiopia. Whether this includes Abiy or not is secondary. What is important is that the human crisis facing the Tigrayan people is averted and that the settlement to this war should usher in stability, democracy and development. My vision for this is as follows. Tigray must stand on its feet and must have cast iron guarantees that the genocidal assaults of the last year will never, ever happen again. We shall rely on ourselves, as we have shown we can do, but we also rely on Africa and the international community to ensure that we are not alone if we ever again face enemies determined to destroy us. Ethiopia is a nation of nations, and the only way forward for the country is to recognize this. There can be no return to empire-building or the domination of one group over another Tigray is an ancient civilization, a place where Christianity has deep roots and where the peaceful coexistence and symbiosis between Muslims, Christians and Jews goes back fourteen centuries. Recognizing and preserving this is the foundation stone for stability for Ethiopia, our neighbors in the Horn of Africa, and the countries on the other shore of the Red Sea. Tigray is an African nation. We have contributed to the birth of African civilization and we have contributed to the vision of an Africa that is stable, secure and independent from external powers, whether they be Europe, America, the Middle East or Asia. Tigrayans are proud of our contribution to Ethiopias diplomacy and peacekeeping which was a pillar of stability and development in the Horn of Africa region. We are proud of our contribution to regional economic integration including water, electricity and transport infrastructure joining neighboring countries. The entire international community, including Russia, China, and all the countries in the Middle East, have a responsibility to humanity that should override whatever policy differences they may have with America and Europe. That same common responsibility extends to protecting a cultural heritage, by halting the war against a people who have been the custodian of this unique intersection of faiths and cultures. The Horn of Africa is a region where the worlds great powers all have legitimate interests. The world needs maritime security, seeks to stamp out violent extremism, and wants to avert the specter of massive distress migration driven by conflict, famine and state collapse. We in Tigray recognize this. Given our proximity and history we want to be constructive player by securing our national interest and legitimate national interest of other player in the sub region. The world should not allow a repeat of Syria, Yemen or Libya in the Horn at the western flank of the Red Sea. This is not a zero-sum game. Ethiopia should be the place where these international and regional interests converge in a multilateral pact. All Ethiopians need a ceasefire and political negotiations. Our political goals are clear and we have reiterated our proposal for a ceasefire. This may start with a freeze in combata cessation of hostilities. It must then develop into a full and permanent ceasefire, which is a complicated military operation requiring professionalism on both sides. An essential component of a ceasefire is third party monitoring and verification. Africa has extensive experience in this and we are confident that our African brothers will be able to provide the necessary expertise and capacity. Ethiopia is unique but it is also an African country where Africas principles and wisdom are much needed. Over the last thirty years, beginning when I had the honor of serving as chief of staff of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces, Ethiopia has become an integral part of Africas peace and security architecture, extending our services in diplomacy and peacekeeping across the continent in a spirit of brotherhood and solidarity. We now call on our African brothers to reach out their hand in that same spirit. Thank y

Read more at: https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2021/12/26/pertinent-issues-on-the-war-in-tigray/#.Ycgf1DioS9A.twitter
The Elephant - Speaking truth to power.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on December 26, 2021, 10:50:57 PM
Great read.Sensible options to baby Abiy.But will he listen
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on December 28, 2021, 06:11:28 PM
Sanctions - Ethiopia removed from AGOA. Kenya should attract the Ethiopian manufacturers to set up shop in Lamu. We need to build the Lamu industrial city

Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Stockguru on January 03, 2022, 07:56:23 AM
Sanctions - Ethiopia removed from AGOA. Kenya should attract the Ethiopian manufacturers to set up shop in Lamu. We need to build the Lamu industrial city


Can Kenya meet the labor costs?
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Stockguru on January 09, 2022, 12:42:40 AM
What is going on here with these Drone Strikes? Why are they targeting Civilians? Has someone in the military gone rogue? Seems like either these are being done delibaretly to discredit Abiy or Someone may be misdirecting these drones to hit civilians. There is no miliatry reason for the recent strikes. Abiy is a moron

Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on January 09, 2022, 07:34:18 AM
Us has applied pressure on turkey..so stupid Ethiopian pilots are now driving the drones...these are war crimes loading for Abbiy
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Stockguru on January 10, 2022, 04:27:30 AM
Amhara are not happy with Abiy. He has released TPLF leaders and other oromo dissidents. Amharas think he is going to make a deal with TDF at the expense. The deal may include Amhara being asked to move out of Western Tigray

Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Stockguru on January 10, 2022, 04:32:29 AM
Us has applied pressure on turkey..so stupid Ethiopian pilots are now driving the drones...these are war crimes loading for Abbiy

Wow  I had not seen info on Ethiopian pilots taking over the drones. It is tragic  what they are doing. Yes this may amount to war crimes. Especially if they are deliberately targeting IDPS and refugees.

I think Abiy is having difficulties managing the post war situation. He has over promised his base. They are looking for nothing but total annihilation of TDF. Abiy knows this is impossible. He is in tricky situation since he has few people who can trust him. He may end up getting overthrown by the military if this drags on longer
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Stockguru on January 20, 2022, 02:11:43 PM
Ethiopia needs more than peace talks
Regardless of what happens in Tigray, without the help of international financial institutions, the foundation of the state will come apart.

JANUARY 19, 2022
Written by
Alex de Waal
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Washingtons new special envoy for the Horn of Africa, David Satterfield, and Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Molly Phee, are heading for Ethiopia this week. They are doubtless buoyed by some rare good news from the country: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has released some political prisoners, toned down bellicose rhetoric against the Tigrayans who are fighting fiercely in the countrys 14-month-old civil war, and spoken with President Joe Biden for the first time. Abiy also gave a green light to the African Unions high representative, former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo, to meet with the leaders of the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front.

The shifts are real. The center of political controversy in Addis Ababa is no longer the Tigray war but the question of whether Abiy will be able to corral enough of the Oromos the countrys largest ethnic group into his planned national dialogue. The position of Jawar Mohamed, a leader of the Oromo democratic movement and committed federalist, now at liberty after 18 months in prison, will be crucial. Abiy is now wooing the splintered but still vigorous Oromos, speaking positively about the federal constitution, and distributing promotions to army officers many Oromos like confetti. In doing so, he also surprised and antagonized the unionist constituency, mostly Amhara ethno-nationalists, who had been the most hardline supporters of the war on Tigray, some of them indulging in blatantly genocidal rhetoric. Planned festivities in Addis Ababa and Amhara region cities to celebrate victory were abruptly called off.

Abiys maneuvers caught many Ethiopians off guard and won him some room for maneuver. Western diplomats are hopeful that peace negotiations with the TPLF may now be in prospect; Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta has been active behind the scenes. In his talk with Abiy, Biden stressed the need for humanitarian access to the starving in Tigray, halting human rights abuses, and the need for peace.

Nonetheless, the war rages on. Following the Tigrayans withdrawal of their forces from neighboring regions last month under pressure from the United States as well as onslaught by newly-acquired swarms of drones fierce fighting has continued. The Ethiopian army stalled its ground offensive into Tigray, but air strikes continue on a daily basis, killing scores of civilians.

Abiy and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki have not relaxed their starvation siege on five million people. The most recent United Nations food assessment for Tigray was in June last year, and it forecast widespread famine within three months if aid were not delivered at scale. Abiy has permitted only 12 percent of needed aid to go in. For six months, the official figure for the starving has remained unchanged at 400,000 a number that is no more than a desperately optimistic guess given the dreadful logic of famine. Last week, the World Food Program reported that its warehouses in Tigray were empty, while Tigrayan doctors detailed the near-total collapse of health services. Not even insulin for diabetic patients is allowed on the UNs sole weekly supply flight. Ending the famine was top of Bidens talking points when he spoke with Abiy on January 10.

For Abiys close ally Afwerki, political dialogue, prisoner releases or federalism are anathema, and he made clear his contempt for Abiy in a rare television interview earlier this month. Isaias remains determined to crush Tigray. His troops are still fighting inside Tigray, and his agents are all over Ethiopia, sowing discord and running illicit businesses.

These issues make for a full agenda for Satterfield, Phee and Obasanjo. But its important that they dont mistake short-term maneuvers for a fundamental and essential political reorientation. Abiy is like a skilled seaman who can keep his ship afloat, but hes not a navigator who can steer it to a destination.

What explains Abiys latest maneuver is that he has run out of money. Alongside the disintegration of the unified national army and the fever pitch of ethnic mobilization, bankruptcy portends protracted state crisis, perhaps collapse.

When Abiy took office four years ago, Ethiopias economy, following an East Asian developmental state model, had been growing at nine percent annually for a decade. Now its a basket case: growth in 2021 may be just two percent, and the uncertainties are such that the IMF hasnt made any forecast for 2022. Having overspent massively on the 2021/22 budget (the fiscal year runs from July), the government presented a supplementary budget to parliament in December. Grants and loans have dried up; its credit rating is rated junk; and the country is considered uninvestable by the private sector. Despite desperate lobbying, Ethiopia lost its beneficiary status under the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act on January 1 due to its  gross human rights record. Abiy boasted that he could always turn to other allies, including China, Russia, and Middle Eastern countries. But while they may offer him cash in hand and discounts on weapons sales, none will bail out a failing economy in a nation of 115 million people. Only the Atlantic powers and the Bretton Woods institutions can do that.

Ethiopia needs a rescue package to stave off galloping inflation, restructure its debts and keep the lights on. The donors wont step up while it spends all its resources on the war.

Most urgently, Ethiopia is facing a nationwide food crisis. According to the USAID-funded Famine Early Warning System Network, expanding conflict and prolonged drought [are] expected to drive record-level and extreme need in 2022.  Alarms dont come more explicit than this. The FEWSNET map shows emergency and crisis food insecurity across half of the country. Faced with a crippling harvest shortfall six years ago, the government mobilized a rapid and effective response. It wasnt just a humanitarian effort government leaders feared that a 50 percent hike in the price of food would lead to unrest and endanger the regime. Food price inflation recently hit 40 percent.

Its Western nations, especially the United States, that fill Ethiopias emergency food basket. They insist that the government feed the starving in Tigray as well as the hungry in the rest of the country.

Abiys political challenge is encapsulated in the name of the Prosperity Party he leads. Its both a nod to his Pentecostalist faith and a promise of material rewards to his followers. When he took office in 2018, Abiy entranced Ethiopians by telling them that everyone could have everything, once the magic of the free market worked its wonders and the corruption of the previous regime was rooted out. But his real sorcery was a one-time fire sale of state assets. He doled out prime real estate in return for political favors and began selling off the crown jewels of the developmental state, notably the government-owned telecoms.

In fact, the war on Tigray was not only a power struggle but a huge grab of land and assets. The internment of Tigrayans in Addis Ababa en masse late last year amounted to a massive shakedown, as their businesses have been confiscated and they are extorted to pay bribes to make phone calls, get medicine or if they can afford it buy their release.

Eritrea grabbed its share of the spoils by pillage. It also snapped up Tigrayan companies and runs illicit foreign currency exchange schemes. To recapture the hard currency from remittances Ethiopias most reliable source of dollars the Central Bank of Ethiopia is contemplating a new parallel exchange rate. Unconcerned with the stability of the Ethiopian currency, Eritrea will be a ruthless rival in that market.

Abiy is adept at managing the urban elite through the autocrats classic playbook of coercion and patronage. In the provinces, his coercive options are limited because security is in the hands of regional ethnic forces whose loyalty isnt to him. And Abiy has probably left it too late for financial stabilization. The regions merciless political operators are circling around a wounded and weakened leader, expecting him to stoke political disorder because he thinks he can zigzag more smartly than his rivals. That may be correct, but that way lies protracted instability saving a government by sacrificing a functioning state.

The transactional politics practiced by Abiy and his backers is possible only with a solid macroeconomic foundation. The Ethiopian state is failing because that foundation is crumbling, and the help needed can only come from America, Europe, and the international financial institutions they still control. Washington has strong cards to play, if it wishes to play them.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Stockguru on January 20, 2022, 02:41:06 PM
But despite this uptake, the rhetorical and symbolic value Ethiopia holds in the imagination of Africans and the Black Diaspora, and the fact that the African Union is hosted in Addis Ababa, Africa holds an ambivalent place in Ethiopian social and cultural identity. Historically, the founders of modern Ethiopia, Menelik II (1844-1913) and Haile Selassie (1982-1975) are known for denying their blackness and distancing themselves from other Africans.

https://martinplaut.com/2022/01/19/the-tigray-war-and-the-use-and-misuse-of-pan-africanism/
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on January 26, 2022, 09:28:12 AM
Abiy to re-enter Tigray and attempt to eliminate TPLF again
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ethiopia-army-planning-eliminate-tigrayan-forces-military-official-2022-01-22/
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on January 26, 2022, 04:21:47 PM
Abiy to re-enter Tigray and attempt to eliminate TPLF again
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ethiopia-army-planning-eliminate-tigrayan-forces-military-official-2022-01-22/

I think this was from a "rogue" amhara general. Abiy wants nothing to do with Tigray. He tasted the wrath of tiger. I think tdf should just wait out the stalemate. In a year Ethiopia economy will collapse and food shortage will be what will remove this water melon from power.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on January 26, 2022, 04:29:14 PM
Amhara want to extend their sibling rivarly with Tigray to entire nation. Look like Abbiy is mending fences with Oromos - having released the popular tycoon and wants nothing to do with TDF. He knows with drones - he was gone.

Yes in long run ethiopia if it doesnt conclude this war - will become bankrupt - and Abbiy will struggle in the next election - if he last till then.

I think this was from a "rogue" amhara general. Abiy wants nothing to do with Tigray. He tasted the wrath of tiger. I think tdf should just wait out the stalemate. In a year Ethiopia economy will collapse and food shortage will be what removed this water melon from power.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on January 26, 2022, 04:33:59 PM
Amhara want to extend their sibling rivarly with Tigray to entire nation. Look like Abbiy is mending fences with Oromos - having released the popular tycoon and wants nothing to do with TDF. He knows with drones - he was gone.

Yes in long run ethiopia if it doesnt conclude this war - will become bankrupt - and Abbiy will struggle in the next election - if he last till then.

I think this was from a "rogue" amhara general. Abiy wants nothing to do with Tigray. He tasted the wrath of tiger. I think tdf should just wait out the stalemate. In a year Ethiopia economy will collapse and food shortage will be what removed this water melon from power.

Oromos leaders can't trust abiy that much. He has proven to be very transactional person. As long as abiy is in power the political problems will continue. He is weak and small minded person
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on March 02, 2022, 05:18:37 AM
Stupid abiy didn't lift the seige. Those poor tigrayans are starving to death. Ethiopians are cruel
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on March 02, 2022, 08:41:39 PM
Stupid abiy didn't lift the seige. Those poor tigrayans are starving to death. Ethiopians are cruel

People are used to Ethiopians starving.  It's almost a non-news event if this is all that's happening.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on March 02, 2022, 11:16:54 PM
Stupid abiy didn't lift the seige. Those poor tigrayans are starving to death. Ethiopians are cruel

People are used to Ethiopians starving.  It's almost a non-news event if this is all that's happening.

It is really cruel to starve someone to death. Shoot me but do not starve me to death. These idiots are just too cruel to each other. I met an Ethiopian who is now Eritrean because after war her mum was given a week to move out of Addis Ababa to Eritrea. She told me ethnonationalism is so strong that Ethiopians do not work well with anyone from outside..
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on March 03, 2022, 10:09:44 PM
Stupid abiy didn't lift the seige. Those poor tigrayans are starving to death. Ethiopians are cruel

People are used to Ethiopians starving.  It's almost a non-news event if this is all that's happening.

It is really cruel to starve someone to death. Shoot me but do not starve me to death. These idiots are just too cruel to each other. I met an Ethiopian who is now Eritrean because after war her mum was given a week to move out of Addis Ababa to Eritrea. She told me ethnonationalism is so strong that Ethiopians do not work well with anyone from outside..

It's a war crime actually.  There is a reason Ethiopia(and Somalia) is not part of EAC.  Those people are different.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Stockguru on March 10, 2022, 02:34:39 AM
Stupid abiy didn't lift the seige. Those poor tigrayans are starving to death. Ethiopians are cruel

People are used to Ethiopians starving.  It's almost a non-news event if this is all that's happening.

It is really cruel to starve someone to death. Shoot me but do not starve me to death. These idiots are just too cruel to each other. I met an Ethiopian who is now Eritrean because after war her mum was given a week to move out of Addis Ababa to Eritrea. She told me ethnonationalism is so strong that Ethiopians do not work well with anyone from outside..

It's a war crime actually.  There is a reason Ethiopia(and Somalia) is not part of EAC.  Those people are different.

they suffer from Supremacy complex

Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Stockguru on March 10, 2022, 02:35:32 AM

There is so much evil in this world
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Georgesoros on March 10, 2022, 07:57:39 AM
How did this goon get a Nobel???
Gives Nobel a bad name.
He is worse than Putin. Corrupted with power.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on March 10, 2022, 01:08:40 PM
They should scrap that peace nobel - it useless.
Real nobels are in science, economics, maths, literature.
How did this goon get a Nobel???
Gives Nobel a bad name.
He is worse than Putin. Corrupted with power.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Kadudu on March 10, 2022, 02:48:28 PM
What about our Wangari Mathae?

They should scrap that peace nobel - it useless.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on March 10, 2022, 06:52:29 PM
How did this goon get a Nobel???
Gives Nobel a bad name.
He is worse than Putin. Corrupted with power.

Peace with Eritrea.  They were even working together to contain Tigray.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on March 11, 2022, 06:31:02 PM
They can have one for enviromental science.
What about our Wangari Mathae?
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on March 28, 2022, 03:18:55 PM
Putin head is on the chopping board. I believe Biden is just saying loud what everyone wants to be done. By everyone I mean by those of us who believe in freedom.

Hopefully he will deal with putin when the time comes. Time for putin to in a tomb somewhere
?s=20&t=mmL2j3R4t-GXSS5Wk2DkMw
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Stockguru on September 15, 2022, 02:31:56 AM
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on September 15, 2022, 05:59:25 AM
Uhuru should start work immediately
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on September 19, 2022, 08:42:02 PM
war updates
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on September 20, 2022, 01:37:34 PM
war is on
?t=_HnRyOQJcLgHrakhu-F5TA&s=19
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Kadudu on October 18, 2022, 11:48:17 AM
The Ethiopian government forces in cooperation with Eritrea, captured Shire, a city north of Tigray. The Tigayians are ready for peace talks, but the Ethipian government seems hell bent to crash the TPLF. Big mistake of Abiy. He should negotiate now for peace from a position of strength. The Tigranians will never surrender.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on October 18, 2022, 12:41:43 PM
Look like they will overrun the towns but soldiers disappears into rural areas; gain strength; take them over; repeat and rinse;
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Kadudu on October 18, 2022, 01:15:58 PM
It will be guerilla warfare which tends to be long and dirty. Nobody can win here and the civilians will be the biggest loosers. Tigranian civilians better move to Sudan. That is their last hope.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on October 22, 2022, 06:29:28 PM
Look like Baby Abiy the Nobel Laurate is heading for short live victory in Mekele soon
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Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on October 22, 2022, 06:37:18 PM
The Ethiopian government forces in cooperation with Eritrea, captured Shire, a city north of Tigray. The Tigayians are ready for peace talks, but the Ethipian government seems hell bent to crash the TPLF. Big mistake of Abiy. He should negotiate now for peace from a position of strength. The Tigranians will never surrender.

It depends on what they want to talk about.  Abiy might think they only need to talk about surrender.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Njuri Ncheke on October 22, 2022, 07:38:33 PM
Current status is Abiy is poised to capture Mekelle,Tigray is fully destroyed I had perfectly predicted this, that after first fight Abiy will take time to rearm and go on the offensive. Even if Tigray continue fighting their land will be destroyed not worth that,whatTigray did to other Ethiopians will be visited on them,its better to flee to another country.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on October 22, 2022, 08:08:09 PM
How do you destroy the land :) unless baby Abiy mine it.
I dont think they will be able to hold Tigray when local population is against them.
I see they have taken a tiny sliver - opened a small corridor - huge force of ethiopia and eritrea - against small force of TDF.
My money still on TDF winning this war - because it being fought on their soil.
The war they cannot win is Adis Ababa.
Ethiopia is looking at a protracted civil war that will go on for 10-20yrs.
The good thing it's localized - the OLF oromos have been cut off and should be easy to deal with.
Ogaden and somalis are also happy to see Tigrays kicked - it's a sweet revenge for somalis.
So we will have war in that little corner btw Tigrays, Amharas, Fanos and Eritreas.
Current status is Abiy is poised to capture Mekelle,Tigray is fully destroyed I had perfectly predicted this, that after first fight Abiy will take time to rearm and go on the offensive. Even if Tigray continue fighting their land will be destroyed not worth that,whatTigray did to other Ethiopians will be visited on them,its better to flee to another country.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Njuri Ncheke on October 22, 2022, 09:23:46 PM
Abiys interest is just destroying Tigray land just like Putin is doing in Ukraine,not really interested in ful capture but destroying Tigray so that they never rise, simple strategy. The more Tigray fight the more grim the outcome,they need surrender as Abiy is happy bombing them to smithereens.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on October 23, 2022, 12:42:16 AM
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Njuri Ncheke on October 23, 2022, 09:19:05 AM
You're missing the big picture destruction of Tigray infrastructure and all. Taking it back to the 70s and 80s, already Tigray is regretting starting the war,they will never rise again their region devastated thats what Abiy wants to achieve and Abiy seems to take pleasure in his recent endeavors he is on road to declaring himself emperor of Ethiopia this might be his goal,when you have leaders with a personal vendetta, expect anything will fly just like putin
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on October 23, 2022, 01:01:46 PM
You're missing the big picture destruction of Tigray infrastructure and all. Taking it back to the 70s and 80s, already Tigray is regretting starting the war,they will never rise again their region devastated thats what Abiy wants to achieve and Abiy seems to take pleasure in his recent endeavors he is on road to declaring himself emperor of Ethiopia this might be his goal,when you have leaders with a personal vendetta, expect anything will fly just like putin
What infrastructure is there to destroy...he can weaken their army but he can't win insurgency in tigray without local support... Ethiopia army will again get kicked out of tigray with heavy causalities.The only way is letting tigray become independent or giving them more autonomy...
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: Stockguru on January 07, 2023, 12:52:28 PM
Eriteria still in Tigray looting

Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on January 07, 2023, 01:27:55 PM
Yes.
But surely how did Tigrays become this hated by almost everyone.
Somalis, Amharas, Eritreans, Oromo all want them exterminated.

Was Meles Zenawi such an evil?

What happened the last two years is clearly genocidal attempt to exterminate Tigray People.
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: KenyanPlato on January 07, 2023, 06:56:38 PM
Yes.
But surely how did Tigrays become this hated by almost everyone.
Somalis, Amharas, Eritreans, Oromo all want them exterminated.

Was Meles Zenawi such an evil?

What happened the last two years is clearly genocidal attempt to exterminate Tigray People.

Zenawi crackdown. he won the war by killing others into submission
Title: Re: Special Thread on Ethiopia war
Post by: RV Pundit on April 01, 2023, 06:19:01 AM
This war has pretty much ended. Where it began. Baby Abiy has returned Tigray regional gov. Needless destruction and war.
https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/rest-of-africa/ethiopia-drops-charges-against-rebel-leaders-4180066