Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on September 13, 2021, 09:14:29 AM
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TSP kwanza has failed to get traction...Mwangi Kiunjuri should flush that thing...and run to UDA...and compete with Gachaguas...otherwise he is joining the path well trodden by Martha Karua and Peter Kenneth to irrelevance.
Moses Kuria verdict is still out there...as a person he is popular.
He has made a move in Meru - if he wins - he gets a momentum back - if he loses - he need to plan this for long term - wait for UDA nomination to pick any fallout.
(https://scontent-mrs2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/241801724_10224535759374151_2116664199880802622_n.jpg?_nc_cat=109&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=dbeb18&_nc_ohc=IEdSZCcu2dUAX_MeQi1&_nc_ht=scontent-mrs2-1.xx&oh=c14e0168402a5b6eab4837a0ad466a50&oe=6143580D)
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The correct way to look at it is. 90% of Mt Kenyans are against Raila.
Uhuru also thought 90% Of Mt Kenyans support him and he tried to sell Handshake and it backfired He is now on the same ship as Raila. Not welcome in Mt Kenya.
TSP kwanza has failed to get traction...Mwangi Kiunjuri should flash that thing...and run to UDA...and compete with Gachaguas...otherwise he is joining the path well trodden by Martha Karua and Peter Kenneth to irrelevance.
Moses Kuria verdict is still out there...as a person he is popular.
He has made a move in Meru - if he wins - he gets a momentum back - if he loses - he need to plan this for long term - wait for UDA nomination to pick any fallout.
(https://scontent-mrs2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/241801724_10224535759374151_2116664199880802622_n.jpg?_nc_cat=109&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=dbeb18&_nc_ohc=IEdSZCcu2dUAX_MeQi1&_nc_ht=scontent-mrs2-1.xx&oh=c14e0168402a5b6eab4837a0ad466a50&oe=6143580D)
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Actually tend to think Uhuru is now hated as person - more than Raila :) And attacking Uhuru in Mt kenya is more rewarding than attacking Raila.
Talking about dynasties - is more rewarding than attacking ODM or Raila - which everyone knows is dead as dodo.
Kiunjuri has failed to read that simple sign - otherwise like Gachagua - he should be busy attacking Uhuru and bringing the ghost of Mau Mau.
Attacking Raila will draw yawns - it's boring - everyone already know he is an ogre.
What draw voters - is CLASS WAR POLITICS in mt kenya...Hustler - versus - Dynasty. There is a strong feeling like happen in Kalenjin land - that after 20yrs - those who have benefited are a small entitled class of elites...while the rest of people have to endure poverty...as covid and other economic polices ravaged the hustler economics.
The correct way to look at it is. 90% of Mt Kenyans are against Raila.
Uhuru also thought 90% Of Mt Kenyans support him and he tried to sell Handshake and it backfired He is now on the same ship as Raila. Not welcome in Mt Kenya.
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If Uhuru decides to attack Raila, the support he will get will be overwhelming.
He is now comfortable thanks to Raila , He can loot all he wants and loot alone without any noises from within and outside.
He checked both Raila and Ruto but finally Ruto will checkmate him.
Actually tend to think Uhuru is now hated as person - more than Raila :) And attacking Uhuru in Mt kenya is more rewarding than attacking Raila.
Talking about dynasties - is more rewarding than attacking ODM - which everyone does.
The correct way to look at it is. 90% of Mt Kenyans are against Raila.
Uhuru also thought 90% Of Mt Kenyans support him and he tried to sell Handshake and it backfired He is now on the same ship as Raila. Not welcome in Mt Kenya.
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He is not recovering - and neither will his rich elite from hustler-dynasty dichotomy. Once you have lost community trust - earning it back is not easy. He will become a Moi - respected but ignored.People already moved on - and the new emerging elite ...will not give you space to crawl back.
He can recover from Raila but he cannot recover from income or opportunities inequalities that is regime stand accused for presiding over.
To average mt kenya persons - they haven't felt any power - to the political elite - he has sliced them for St mary elite - so I dont see how you recover that. He can recover the respect part by dumping Raila - but will not recover the admiration from Mt kenya.
Therefore it's Uhuru interest to play the national card...he is better off with NASA thinking he is a great president :) for killing Jubilee - and Mt kenya is gonna tolerate him anyway.
If Uhuru decides to attack Raila, the support he will get will be overwhelming.
He is now comfortable thanks to Raila , He can loot all he wants and loot alone without any noises from within and outside.
He checked both Raila and Ruto but finally Ruto will checkmate him.
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You seem to forget that Uhuru was a villan in Mt Kenya after supporting Orange and Raila in 2005 Referendumn. He was so much hated that he almost retired from Politics. Then Kaboom He switched sides and started supporting Kibaki. 1 year later he was the Prince of Mt Kenya.
He is not recovering - and neither will his rich elite from hustler-dynasty dichotomy. Once you have lost community trust - earning it back is not easy. He will become a Moi - respected but ignored.People already moved on - and the new emerging elite ...will not give you space to crawl back.
He can recover from Raila but he cannot recover from income or opportunities inequalities that is regime stand accused for presiding over.
To average mt kenya persons - they haven't felt any power - to the political elite - he has sliced them for St mary elite - so I dont see how you recover that. He can recover the respect part by dumping Raila - but will not recover the admiration from Mt kenya.
Therefore it's Uhuru interest to play the national card...he is better off with NASA thinking he is a great president :) for killing Jubilee - and Mt kenya is gonna tolerate him anyway.
If Uhuru decides to attack Raila, the support he will get will be overwhelming.
He is now comfortable thanks to Raila , He can loot all he wants and loot alone without any noises from within and outside.
He checked both Raila and Ruto but finally Ruto will checkmate him.
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Uhuru big break came during 2008 PEV - his leadership in crisis as Kibaki hid in statehouse where he led humanitarian/retaliatory attacks - and subsequent ICC debacle - made Kikiyus especially feel indebted to him. He had proven to the a scion of Jomo - not a Moi protege.
As much as Raila is hated - I do not think Mt kenya are single issue people. There are many factors you need to consider.
You seem to forget that Uhuru was a villan in Mt Kenya after supporting Orange and Raila in 2005 Referendumn. He was so much hated that he almost retired from Politics. Then Kaboom He switched sides and started supporting Kibaki. 1 year later he was the Prince of Mt Kenya.
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My Friend , So where has Rutos big big break come from.
I will tell one thing as early as 2007 when Uhuru defected our elders told us , There goes your next leader. I had become pro Martha Karua because of how she managed to keep Raila and his team on toes. Then came Grand Coalition Government and Uhuru was given DPM post and not Martha. I was still in denial , Martha resigned as Minister and her partyNARC still managed to Bag by elections in Maladara and Juja so I still thought she could manage to take the mantle. How wrong was I . Mt Kenyans had decided it was Uhuru as the next Kingpin way before 2007 elections.
Uhuru big break came during 2008 PEV - his leadership in crisis as Kibaki hid in statehouse where he led humanitarian/retaliatory attacks - and subsequent ICC debacle - made Kikiyus especially feel indebted to him. He had proven to the a scion of Jomo - not a Moi protege.
As much as Raila is hated - I do not think Mt kenya are single issue people. There are many factors you need to consider.
You seem to forget that Uhuru was a villan in Mt Kenya after supporting Orange and Raila in 2005 Referendumn. He was so much hated that he almost retired from Politics. Then Kaboom He switched sides and started supporting Kibaki. 1 year later he was the Prince of Mt Kenya.
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Let me teach you politics kwa kipole.
Ruto big break came in 2003 - after Moi retired without any concrete sucession plan - many kalenjin leaders expected Gideon Moi to step up - the first meeting he held with KANU kalenjin mps - he told them to pay for their lunch :) and Ruto stepped in. That was first redflag for many in Kalenjin elite - Gideon was not Moi. Moi was very generous. The son is as tight fisted as Mwai Kibaki.
As kibaki inevitably went for Kalenjin elite and their crony system - there emerged two school of thoughts - to confront kibaki or to quietly negotiate - Gideon/Biwwot/Mois favoured laying low and cutting deals - Ruto decided to mount aggressive opposition to NARC - Kibaki threw him jail over the weekend and had him charged for graft - Ruto never wavered - meanwhile Mois/Biwotts got free pass and became anglo-leasing partners -- seamlessly transferred the 2002 deals they had nearly finished to Wanjigi-Mwangi-Kiraitu-dude from nyeri chris murungaru - and soon enough Ruto was joined by the disgruntled LDP crew. Narc started messing up with Anglo-leasing and Githongo scandals....and Ruto found his voice again.
As regard to Uhuru
1) PEV/ICC - gave him legitimacy in eyes of Kikuyu/Mt Kenya. Him backing Kibaki in 2007 was of ZERO consequences. He had been abandoned by Kiambu-Nakuru kikuyus - in 2005 referendum. He was in KANU alone. He was running to Kibaki for his own sake. In KANU - Ruto had overshadowed him and drove KANU to LDP/ODM - he was running to kibaki to win parliamentary seat.
2) In PEV/ICC - he used his own money to help victims and to pay for Mungiki. That at time many in Mt kenya felt Kibaki had betrayed them - by not doing enough to stop ODM warriors.
Now that is legitimacy.
He only became serious candidate when he won over Ruto. With that - his 2013 run was now strong enough - because he had secured Kalenjin signature.
It's like now - if Raila - says Munya tosha - Munya will become strong - at least Meru.
Funding Mungiki helped Uhuru gain legitimacy in the eyes of Mt kenya and Ruto tosha made his candidature credible.
My Friend , So where has Rutos big big break come from.
I will tell one thing as early as 2007 when Uhuru defected our elders told us , There goes your next leader. I had become pro Martha Karua because of how she managed to keep Raila and his team on toes. Then came Grand Coalition Government and Uhuru was given DPM post and not Martha. I was still in denial , Martha resigned as Minister and her partyNARC still managed to Bag by elections in Maladara and Juja so I still thought she could manage to take the mantle. How wrong was I . Mt Kenyans had decided it was Uhuru as the next Kingpin way before 2007 elections.
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My question is simple , Where has Rutos big break from Mt Kenya come from ? I didnt ask his big break in Rift Valley.
The answer is simple , Its because of Raila Phobia.
You can write many Inshas and do many excell calculation .The answer is simple. Mt Kenyas see him as the only strong Candidate against Raila.
Same thing the saw in 2013 as Uhuru being the strongest candidate against Raila.
My point was clear , Uhuru the son who dared support the enemy in 3005 Referendum became the chosen Prince once he came back to the fold. Same way if he decided to abandon Raila right now he will be welcomed by 2 hands in Mt Kenya and if Ruto decides in any form to work with Raila he will be dropped like its hot.
Let me teach you politics kwa kipole.
Ruto big break came in 2003 - after Moi retired without any concrete sucession plan - many kalenjin leaders expected Gideon Moi to step up - the first meeting he held with KANU kalenjin mps - he told them to pay for their lunch :) and Ruto stepped in. That was first redflag for many in Kalenjin elite - Gideon was not Moi. Moi was very generous. The son is as tight fisted as Mwai Kibaki.
As kibaki inevitably went for Kalenjin elite and their crony system - there emerged two school of thoughts - to confront kibaki or to quietly negotiate - Gideon/Biwwot/Mois favoured laying low and cutting deals - Ruto decided to mount aggressive opposition to NARC - Kibaki threw him jail over the weekend and had him charged for graft - Ruto never wavered - meanwhile Mois/Biwotts got free pass and became anglo-leasing partners -- seamlessly transferred the 2002 deals they had nearly finished to Wanjigi-Mwangi-Kiraitu-dude from nyeri chris murungaru - and soon enough Ruto was joined by the disgruntled LDP crew. Narc started messing up with Anglo-leasing and Githongo scandals....and Ruto found his voice again.
As regard to Uhuru
1) PEV/ICC - gave him legitimacy in eyes of Kikuyu/Mt Kenya. Him backing Kibaki in 2007 was of ZERO consequences. He had been abandoned by Kiambu-Nakuru kikuyus - in 2005 referendum. He was in KANU alone. He was running to Kibaki for his own sake. In KANU - Ruto had overshadowed him and drove KANU to LDP/ODM - he was running to kibaki to win parliamentary seat.
2) In PEV/ICC - he used his own money to help victims and to pay for Mungiki. That at time many in Mt kenya felt Kibaki had betrayed them - by not doing enough to stop ODM warriors.
Now that is legitimacy.
He only became serious candidate when he won over Ruto. With that - his 2013 run was now strong enough - because he had secured Kalenjin signature.
It's like now - if Raila - says Munya tosha - Munya will become strong - at least Meru.
Funding Mungiki helped Uhuru gain legitimacy in the eyes of Mt kenya and Ruto tosha made his candidature credible.
My Friend , So where has Rutos big big break come from.
I will tell one thing as early as 2007 when Uhuru defected our elders told us , There goes your next leader. I had become pro Martha Karua because of how she managed to keep Raila and his team on toes. Then came Grand Coalition Government and Uhuru was given DPM post and not Martha. I was still in denial , Martha resigned as Minister and her partyNARC still managed to Bag by elections in Maladara and Juja so I still thought she could manage to take the mantle. How wrong was I . Mt Kenyans had decided it was Uhuru as the next Kingpin way before 2007 elections.
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You're single issue man like a microbe. Engage your brains.
Let me help you.
Ruto biggest break in GEMA came in 2016.
It was the successfully merger of URP and TNA into Jubilee.
That was reason why Ruto took big risk - instead of forcing Uhuru into a corner and signing another MOU - or even asking for serious money or downpayment - like he did in 2013
He decided to go for Jubilee coalition.Uhuru did not need a coalition - Ruto was engine - because he knew what he was planning.
Once Ruto had strongly coupled with GEMA in a single party - it would be very difficult to remove him.
And Ruto was right - although Jubilee died - the coupling has made it very hard for Uhuru to disentangle Ruto.
If it was TNA versus URP - Uhuru would have easily pulled out his TNA and joined it with ODM - without much drama.
This is also why Ruto is hesistant on UDA - allowing coalition. Strong coupling like KANU or even ODM now - makes very stable party and gov.
It's why likes of ANC of RSA or CCM of TZ are still standing today. If you want weak gov then like kibaki go for weak party - PNU/NARC. If you want build a party that is strong as institution - you gotta build KANU like machinery Moi used and that Raila inherited as ODM.
Splitting Jubilee has become difficult because it's not easy for Uhuru to go fully tribal...try as much as he has...calling Saganas and all that...but it's difficult to call off party or gov like TNA or Wiper or ANC would have.
As for now Jubilee is dead but the soul is alive in UDA - and there is seamless transfer from Jubilee to UDA - just like KANU eventually became ODM.
As for Raila - he is a factor - but not only factor in 2022 - there are many other factors -- otherwise it would be easy for any Raila biggest hater to win Mt kenya
My question is simple , Where has Rutos big break from Mt Kenya come from ? I didnt ask his big break in Rift Valley.
The answer is simple , Its because of Raila Phobia.
You can write many Inshas and do many excell calculation .The answer is simple. Mt Kenyas see him as the only strong Candidate against Raila.
Same thing the saw in 2013 as Uhuru being the strongest candidate against Raila.
My point was clear , Uhuru the son who dared support the enemy in 3005 Referendum became the chosen Prince once he came back to the fold. Same way if he decided to abandon Raila right now he will be welcomed by 2 hands in Mt Kenya and if Ruto decides in any form to work with Raila he will be dropped like its hot.
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Pace yourself guys before you burst an aneurism. The election is one yr away if at all, Let’s concentrate on COVID-19 right now. It’s throwing a major curve on everyone right now, you guys are looking too far ahead.
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Nowayaha, this is what I wrote in 2016 - on eve of Jubilee party
https://nipate.net/index.php?topic=3394.msg23872#msg23872
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This what I wrote in 2016...
You don't make much sense either. Uhuru doesn't need JAP. He already become PORK without one. This party is meant to tightly couple communities in Jubilee into a very tight embrace so Ruto can inherit Uhuru mantle without much as a whimper. If Uhuru or GEMA didn't want to endorse Ruto - they won't go for tight coupling. It would have been same coalition where each party will be free to choose their partners. Now this is a MARRIAGE. The come-we-stay has ended.If you are planning to seperate with someone..you don't go ahead and formalize a marriage. The divorce if you want to happen now is going to be pretty difficult and messy. Get it? Or do I need to include pictures? The idea is for anybody (Uhuru is not going against his word) who will want to upstage the apple cart in Jubilee - Uhuru 10 and Ruto 10 - then he has to instigate a messy divorce. He has to go form another party and try to sell in whatever corner. Now imagine say an ambitious GEMA politician (they are a dozen - esp the governor who will not ran again in 2017) want to say take advantage of GEMA political resource -he will have to break up Jubilee party--that won't be easy because Jubilee will be such a national party - he'll be laughed out of town. This is KANU 2.0. That is how Moi of the small tribe managed to hold onto power in 78 and keep it for 24yrs - a strong party-- Jomo has killed the party coz he didn't need it - Moi needed this big umbrella where all the tribes would feel at home. That is Jubilee. Raila had by mere chance nearly replicated this in ODM--and when Kalonzo bolted-- he only bolted with Kambas.
You have all the hint out there that Jubilee is Ruto's vehicle to presidency but you refuse to hear or see. What you're going to witness is a party so big it will be akin to old KANU. Tough luck trying to beat KANU at it apex. If Moi had not mishandled 2002 KANU nomination by ; Kibaki would never have become PORK
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Strong parties survive for a long time. KANU continues to survive till now. ODM has survived since 2005 despite Raila mismanaging it, turning it now into Luo party and still has some national support
Coalition do not survive. If Jubilee was a coalition like it was pre-2016 - Raila and his groupies would have found it easy to break it apart. NASA died. CORD died. PNU died. NARC died. These is because they are loosely coupled so people can easily move out. They are come-we-stay. Parties you have to wait till next election - there is strong coupling - and you cannot switch mid-stream parties. You have to go through divorce proceedings - when that is eventually granted - you go into dividing shared property.
Jubilee is a very strong party with nearly 200mps (including alied) from every corner of the country. You cannot split such a party easily.If Uhuru was to go rogue - he'd struggle to slice off even GEMA from Jubilee.
The fear that maybe one man like Raphael Tuju will pull a David Maanzo on Ruto by holding to the certificate and seal of Jubilee is unfounded. Parties now are under stronger institutions supervised by Registart of Political parties. Jubilee NEC is the decision making organ - not Tuju or Murathe. NEC can fire Tuju any day.
The laughable attempt to split jubilee into tanga tanga and kieleweke hasn't gone far. It would have been easy when Jubilee was 10 parties to splinter it. Nobody in Jubilee want the music (the eating) to stop....and Uhuru is in this fight alone.
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RV what you wrote in bold is the bottom line. Ruto is winning simply because he gets support an anti Raila electorate.
In 2002 It was Anti Moi sentiments they won the day when Raila betrayed Moi and joined forces with Anti Moi Coalition.
In 2007 It was Anti Gema forces vs GEMA for a first time since independence the GEMA vote was unified unlike 92,97 and 2002 . It was a mistake to awaken the sleeping Giant Mountain. It showed they were a force to reckon. Come 2013 it was Anti Raila Coalition which took the Presidency because of dirty politics he played as from 2003 to 2012. Same dirty politics Uhuru has played in his second term.
Now what has made Ruto forays inside Mt Kenya successful is he has been consistent . Supporting Uhuru in 2013 endeared him yo My Kenyans then defending the 2017 win made Mt Kenyans realise this was a genuine politician. Then Uhuru made the fundamental mistake of joining hands with Raila, the real reason they voted for Uhuru was the Raila Phobia. He tried to shaft Ruto using Raila. As brilliant as Ruto is he never took the bait, He never attacked Uhuru something Uhuru handlers were hoping for. This is unlike Raila who upon coming into power under Kibaki wanted to side step him, he attacked Kibaki and Mt Kenyans . He came with the strategy of 41 vs 1. The consequences of that strategy have been studies and we saw what happened.
You're single issue man like a microbe. Engage your brains.
Let me help you.
Ruto biggest break in GEMA came in 2016.
It was the successfully merger of URP and TNA into Jubilee.
That was reason why Ruto took big risk - instead of forcing Uhuru into a corner and signing another MOU - or even asking for serious money or downpayment - like he did in 2013
He decided to go for Jubilee coalition.Uhuru did not need a coalition - Ruto was engine - because he knew what he was planning.
Once Ruto had strongly coupled with GEMA in a single party - it would be very difficult to remove him.
And Ruto was right - although Jubilee died - the coupling has made it very hard for Uhuru to disentangle Ruto.
If it was TNA versus URP - Uhuru would have easily pulled out his TNA and joined it with ODM - without much drama.
This is also why Ruto is hesistant on UDA - allowing coalition. Strong coupling like KANU or even ODM now - makes very stable party and gov.
It's why likes of ANC of RSA or CCM of TZ are still standing today. If you want weak gov then like kibaki go for weak party - PNU/NARC. If you want build a party that is strong as institution - you gotta build KANU like machinery Moi used and that Raila inherited as ODM.
Splitting Jubilee has become difficult because it's not easy for Uhuru to go fully tribal...try as much as he has...calling Saganas and all that...but it's difficult to call off party or gov like TNA or Wiper or ANC would have.
As for now Jubilee is dead but the soul is alive in UDA - and there is seamless transfer from Jubilee to UDA - just like KANU eventually became ODM.
As for Raila - he is a factor - but not only factor in 2022 - there are many other factors -- otherwise it would be easy for any Raila biggest hater to win Mt kenya
My question is simple , Where has Rutos big break from Mt Kenya come from ? I didnt ask his big break in Rift Valley.
The answer is simple , Its because of Raila Phobia.
You can write many Inshas and do many excell calculation .The answer is simple. Mt Kenyas see him as the only strong Candidate against Raila.
Same thing the saw in 2013 as Uhuru being the strongest candidate against Raila.
My point was clear , Uhuru the son who dared support the enemy in 3005 Referendum became the chosen Prince once he came back to the fold. Same way if he decided to abandon Raila right now he will be welcomed by 2 hands in Mt Kenya and if Ruto decides in any form to work with Raila he will be dropped like its hot.
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The Irony, Uhuru wanted a SPV to rewin Presidency he got one and did away with it the very day he got sworn in as the President.
Jubilee so called merger with ODM is nothing else by completely killing it.
This what I wrote in 2016...
You don't make much sense either. Uhuru doesn't need JAP. He already become PORK without one. This party is meant to tightly couple communities in Jubilee into a very tight embrace so Ruto can inherit Uhuru mantle without much as a whimper. If Uhuru or GEMA didn't want to endorse Ruto - they won't go for tight coupling. It would have been same coalition where each party will be free to choose their partners. Now this is a MARRIAGE. The come-we-stay has ended.If you are planning to seperate with someone..you don't go ahead and formalize a marriage. The divorce if you want to happen now is going to be pretty difficult and messy. Get it? Or do I need to include pictures? The idea is for anybody (Uhuru is not going against his word) who will want to upstage the apple cart in Jubilee - Uhuru 10 and Ruto 10 - then he has to instigate a messy divorce. He has to go form another party and try to sell in whatever corner. Now imagine say an ambitious GEMA politician (they are a dozen - esp the governor who will not ran again in 2017) want to say take advantage of GEMA political resource -he will have to break up Jubilee party--that won't be easy because Jubilee will be such a national party - he'll be laughed out of town. This is KANU 2.0. That is how Moi of the small tribe managed to hold onto power in 78 and keep it for 24yrs - a strong party-- Jomo has killed the party coz he didn't need it - Moi needed this big umbrella where all the tribes would feel at home. That is Jubilee. Raila had by mere chance nearly replicated this in ODM--and when Kalonzo bolted-- he only bolted with Kambas.
You have all the hint out there that Jubilee is Ruto's vehicle to presidency but you refuse to hear or see. What you're going to witness is a party so big it will be akin to old KANU. Tough luck trying to beat KANU at it apex. If Moi had not mishandled 2002 KANU nomination by ; Kibaki would never have become PORK
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You need to reread this and realise how wrong you were.
Strong parties survive for a long time. KANU continues to survive till now. ODM has survived since 2005 despite Raila mismanaging it, turning it now into Luo party and still has some national support
Coalition do not survive. If Jubilee was a coalition like it was pre-2016 - Raila and his groupies would have found it easy to break it apart. NASA died. CORD died. PNU died. NARC died. These is because they are loosely coupled so people can easily move out. They are come-we-stay. Parties you have to wait till next election - there is strong coupling - and you cannot switch mid-stream parties. You have to go through divorce proceedings - when that is eventually granted - you go into dividing shared property.
Jubilee is a very strong party with nearly 200mps (including alied) from every corner of the country. You cannot split such a party easily.If Uhuru was to go rogue - he'd struggle to slice off even GEMA from Jubilee.
The fear that maybe one man like Raphael Tuju will pull a David Maanzo on Ruto by holding to the certificate and seal of Jubilee is unfounded. Parties now are under stronger institutions supervised by Registart of Political parties. Jubilee NEC is the decision making organ - not Tuju or Murathe. NEC can fire Tuju any day.
The laughable attempt to split jubilee into tanga tanga and kieleweke hasn't gone far. It would have been easy when Jubilee was 10 parties to splinter it. Nobody in Jubilee want the music (the eating) to stop....and Uhuru is in this fight alone.
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I was wrong to imagine Uhuru would be stupid enough to strongly couple then try to run away. He has found himself offside. If Uhuru wanted to dump Ruto - he would have insisted on coalition.
It would be very easy for TNA to pull out. But now everyone is JUbilee.
Anyway there is more to politics than single issues - politics is a bit complex.
If it was just one issue - many politicians would have succeeded. You can sing anti-raila daily but if you do not tick other boxes -you're going nowhere.
Ruto is a complete package.
You need to reread this and realise how wrong you were.
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I agree with you that its more than one events or factors which makes one a President. We saw with Obama in 2008 then Trump in 2016 and more recently with Biden.
But also there is always that one big factor. In this case there is a Raila factor.
Lets be honest for once with or without Jubilee Ruto was winning 2022 going back to 2018. You very well express this notion and going back to 2007. The Gema Vs Anti Gema. Its a fact Raila imherited Mois Anti Gema Coalition in 2005 and it made him and ODM a formidable force. This is just plain truth however with this came in with Unity of GEMA. Take an example of me I would never in my lifetime have thought of supporting Kibaki however I foumd myself supporting him by default. The 2007 campaigns were the ugliest. Now with Grandcoalition we saw how Raila was a thorn in the flesh. Ruto started attacking Raila after the fallout of Grain Bulk Handlers and We saw a brave person in Ruto. Ruto became a hero in Mt Kenya simply by standing up against Raila . He has been fighting Raila for more that 15 years now. Raila has been an enemy of Mt Kenya for about 20 years now. Do you get why Kalonzo who comes from a cousin tribe still cannot get tract in Mt Kenya ? Mudavadi who paints himself as the softee still has not gained tract in Mt Kenya.
As for Uhuru I expected anything from him.He has never been firm nor consistent. After 2003 Raila costimg him Presidency in 2003 he still joined hands with him. Uhuru 2007 going to Kibakis side, the 2013 Mudavadi debacle, the IEBC debacle giving in to the so called reforms which almost cost him a win 2017 amd Handshake in 2018 after Raila swearing himself in.
I wont be suprised if he backstabs Raila after letting him loot like there is no tomorrow.
I was wrong to imagine Uhuru would be stupid enough to strongly couple then try to run away. He has found himself offside. If Uhuru wanted to dump Ruto - he would have insisted on coalition.
It would be very easy for TNA to pull out. But now everyone is JUbilee.
Anyway there is more to politics than single issues - politics is a bit complex.
If it was just one issue - many politicians would have succeeded. You can sing anti-raila daily but if you do not tick other boxes -you're going nowhere.
Ruto is a complete package.
You need to reread this and realise how wrong you were.
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Now you're talking.
But small correction.
Ruto attacked Raila btw 2008 - to - 2010 to decouple Kalenjin from ODM.
Kalenjin had swallowed Jakom bait, line, hook and sinker
And it was not easy for Ruto to pull out them out - with Raila having 4-5 kalenjin ministers and maybe 10 assistant ministers plus other patronage Jakom was dolling out.
And selling himself to GEMA at that point - was not even in Ruto mind.
Raila being a fool - messed up by 1) touching Mau 2) ICC - otherwise it was not going to be easy to decouple Kalenjin from Jakom - leave alone to sell Uhuru. Ruto had to demonstrate Jakom was inimical to Kalenjin interest...something Uhuru has failed on Ruto case.
Ruto went NO in 2010 constitution - to measure how far he had gone in de-coupling Kalenjin from ODM/Raila
When results showed he had done 95 percent of the job....he now moved on Mt Kenya.
I agree with you that its more than one events or factors which makes one a President. We saw with Obama in 2008 then Trump in 2016 and more recently with Biden.
But also there is always that one big factor. In this case there is a Raila factor.
Lets be honest for once with or without Jubilee Ruto was winning 2022 going back to 2018. You very well express this notion and going back to 2007. The Gema Vs Anti Gema. Its a fact Raila imherited Mois Anti Gema Coalition in 2005 and it made him and ODM a formidable force. This is just plain truth however with this came in with Unity of GEMA. Take an example of me I would never in my lifetime have thought of supporting Kibaki however I foumd myself supporting him by default. The 2007 campaigns were the ugliest. Now with Grandcoalition we saw how Raila was a thorn in the flesh. Ruto started attacking Raila after the fallout of Grain Bulk Handlers and We saw a brave person in Ruto. Ruto became a hero in Mt Kenya simply by standing up against Raila . He has been fighting Raila for more that 15 years now. Raila has been an enemy of Mt Kenya for about 20 years now. Do you get why Kalonzo who comes from a cousin tribe still cannot get tract in Mt Kenya ? Mudavadi who paints himself as the softee still has not gained tract in Mt Kenya.
As for Uhuru I expected anything from him.He has never been firm nor consistent. After 2003 Raila costimg him Presidency in 2003 he still joined hands with him. Uhuru 2007 going to Kibakis side, the 2013 Mudavadi debacle, the IEBC debacle giving in to the so called reforms which almost cost him a win 2017 amd Handshake in 2018 after Raila swearing himself in.
I wont be suprised if he backstabs Raila after letting him loot like there is no tomorrow.
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Mt kenya elite unite. Trying to stay afloat from UDA tsunami.