Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RVtitem on October 14, 2014, 10:50:29 PM
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Is it possible? Of course. But is it “imminent”, as many have suggested after Kimetto broke 2:03 in Berlin? That’s less certain, and I suspect it will take a little longer than many seem to believe. I explain the reasons for that in the presentation, and end with the predictions made using horse and greyhound data that a human “limit” exists at around 2:00:37. If that calculation has a 0.5% error, then sub-2 hours is possible, and physiologically, the characteristics required to break 2 hours are not implausible (it’s not like working out a cyclist’s physiology riding at 6.5W/kg for 40 min).
So the question remains open, and I didn’t arrive at a conclusion in the presentation, so I’ll commit to one now – two hours will not be broken in the next 30 years. Perhaps by 2040, it will come into view, and then who knows? But right now, it’s too far away and too many other things need to change. If I had to call it, I’d say 2050 onwards, if at all. That’s a guess, though, don’t hold me to it!
Anyway, I hope the slides and presentation makes sense without me talking you through it – I’m sure some will, perhaps some will not. I hope to give this talk again one day, and then have it filmed, when I’ll follow it up by posting a video. Also, perhaps in time, I will write a very long post that literally takes you step by step through this presentation, and then I’ll post it again. Right now, time and other commitments prevent me from doing that.
For now, though, I think it will be easy enough to follow most of it, just without the little anecdotes and stories and links between ideas that I’d be talking about. I like to keep the writing to a minimum when I can. Oh, and if you’d like to hear those, I’m always open to invitations, be they from conferences or any other functions. Just let me know, and I’ll gladly share my perspectives and stories of Kenyan running and the sub-2 hour marathon!
http://sportsscientists.com/2014/10/177-sub-2-hour-marathon-east-africas-super-runners/
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I don't know how soon that's going to happen. Have you heard of Tarahumaras? Maybe if these guys focus on the marathons they can be doing sub 1 hour marathon in a decade.
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It possible. Few yrs ago Marathon record was still at 2:05 (time of tergat and haile break it); before that 2:07; it only now that second rate althetes (who fail in track) and old retired althetes who can no longer win in track are beginning to take marathon seriously. I think once you have really young talented runners running marathon straight...think Kenesia Bekele in his prime..that record will fall..below 2hrs.