Author Topic: Tech bubble burst is nigh  (Read 14425 times)

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #40 on: August 13, 2017, 04:36:09 AM »
I could see that possibility for asteroids.  Planets are terrible candidates for extraction unless you stay there.  The cost of getting the stuff out will outweigh its worth.

Asteroids themselves could be mined, but their high-speed movement etc. likely to cause problems.  They could however be used to address what you claim will be high transportation costs.    Something like this: Once your stuff has been mined on Mars, the robots use a rocket to "upload it" (and another rocket) onto a passing asteroid headed near earth.     When the asteroid gets close enough, the second rocket fires to  "download" the package from the asteroid, and, with the help of GPS, drop it into your backyard or some other suitable place.

Rockets are maturing pretty fast. They still launch like IPBMs - but can get back to the launchpad after delivery - to be reused. I imagine soon it may be possible to safely land in places other than sea-based pads - and even deliver cargoes to various addresses.
I desire to go to hell and not to heaven. In the former place I shall enjoy the company of popes, kings, and princes, while in the latter are only beggars, monks, and apostles. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli on his deathbed, June 1527

Offline veritas

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #41 on: August 13, 2017, 04:39:14 AM »
veri - what do you think of Bitcoin? -is it a good investment? It's 3800$ per bitcoin right now.







I wouldn't put all my eggs in one basket, I mean gold will always be safe for the next few decades, but yeah definitely worth a pocket change investment on bitcoins. I think something like bitcoins will supersede gold in maybe 50 years.

Offline veritas

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #42 on: August 13, 2017, 04:40:57 AM »
I think the problem with tech companies is not 'over investment' but rather voodoo valuations that conjure astronomical values for financially stillborn or dying entities.

Basic finance/economics/accounting tells me that cash flow is key. A company that is bleeding cash won't live long.

How Sillicon works is, come up with an idea, hype it, incorporate, hype it even further before offloading shares vide private placement to venture capitals. Start ups are allowed to bleed, make losses as they get their footing, during this time, necessary cash comes from the investors. If they succeed this period, they go public and transfer the monkey to the public.

A good example is Uber.
It's model is not viable and its value proposition is so easily replicable that you wonder what they were smoking before assigning it such voodoo valuation. It's got lots of cash, about $9B and is burning about $2B per year. So it can run for another three years before going back to the investors for more.

What about the established techs like say Google of Facebook? These have no cash flow problems, but their model is challenged. Charging advertisers billions for bots clicking on an ad is not delivering value to them. So digital advertising is shrinking.

And so on...but overvaluation is IT. That's what ate Snapchat,is eating twirra, and I have no doubt is eating Telsa. There is no way in God's wretched world Tessa can be valued more than GM given their respective annual sales
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/04/11/tesla-gm-comparison-market-share-income-valuation/


Here's a 7 part series on Uber
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/11/can-uber-ever-deliver-part-one-understanding-ubers-bleak-operating-economics.html


Wow, agreed.

Offline veritas

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #43 on: August 13, 2017, 04:55:06 AM »
I could see that possibility for asteroids.  Planets are terrible candidates for extraction unless you stay there.  The cost of getting the stuff out will outweigh its worth.

Asteroids themselves could be mined, but their high-speed movement etc. likely to cause problems.  They could however be used to address what you claim will be high transportation costs.    Something like this: Once your stuff has been mined on Mars, the robots use a rocket to "upload it" (and another rocket) onto a passing asteroid headed near earth.     When the asteroid gets close enough, the second rocket fires to  "download" the package from the asteroid, and, with the help of GPS, drop it into your backyard or some other suitable place.

:) This stuff is all a joke to you isn't it?


The asteroid thing is already being done: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining I learnt this in my political studies back like 10 years ago.

There are currently asteroids passing Earth and some detonated in space before reaching Earth. The mineral content on asteroids are similar to Earth which leads some scientists to believe Earth was hit by an asteroid hence how life began. It would be easier to capture an asteroid and make it's trajectory orbit Earth and to populate it.

There was an investor who wanted to mine asteroids. .. can't remember his name but here are some articles:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/06/goldman-sachs-tells-investors-to-consider-new-space-age.html

Quote
A new space age is emerging, and the so-called space economy will become a multitrillion-dollar industry within the next two decades, Goldman Sachs is telling its clients.

More than 50 venture capital firms invested in space in 2015, driving more VC dollars into the sector in that year alone than in the prior 15 years combined, analyst Noah Poponak wrote in a Tuesday note to investors. Those firms included SoftBank, Fidelity, Bessemer and the VC arm of Alphabet's Google, among others.

"While relatively small markets today, rapidly falling costs are lowering the barrier to participate in the space economy, making new industries like space tourism, asteroid mining and on-orbit manufacturing viable," Poponak said.

Since 2000, more than $13 billion has been poured into space-related start-ups and established companies, Goldman's research shows. Key players receiving funds are broken down into satellite manufacturers, like Boeing; launch providers, like Lockheed Martin; and operators, such as AT&T or Dish Network.

Asteroids could be the new equities

But investors are starting to look past the well-established industries within space, such as development of satellites and launchers, and into less-established ventures like space mining and tourism, Goldman wrote.

"We believe space mining is still a long way from commercial viability, but it has the potential to further ease access to space and facilitate an in-space manufacturing economy," Poponak said.

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/theres-big-money-made-asteroid-mining/



The project timeline for an asteroid mining mission is at least 10 years, but the right time for investing in space resources is now.
There are numerous space resources companies that are developing the technology and skills required for what can easily be described as the most complex resource operations in history with the highest possible payoff. Most visitors to this website already understand the ramifications of viewing the Moon as an 8th continent to exploit, and asteroids as objects to mine or harvest. Aside from the complexity in the technology and processes required there is a straight forward process to getting started.

Space Resources is dedicated to researching and laying out a Road Map for Space Resources.

That includes investing in space resources companies that meet certain criteria, and understanding the emerging space commerce companies that will form part of the vital infrastructure of space resources operations.

http://spaceresources.eu/



Luxembourg to Invest $227 Million in Asteroid Mininghttp://fortune.com/2016/06/05/luxembourg-asteroid-mining/

etc.

Note, Luxembourg is the richest economy in the world.

Offline veritas

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #44 on: August 13, 2017, 05:07:32 AM »


http://www.nanalyze.com/2017/01/asteroid-mining-companies/



A firm in Houston (since NASA stuff is there) is more likely to succeed over some Mexican/Silicon Valley space shuttle quackery.

Offline MOON Ki

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #45 on: August 13, 2017, 05:25:33 AM »
Veritas: Those orbits look really nice, but they won't help with regular transportation to and from Mars ... see where they are on a "map" that also includes Mars.  The other thing is that even if one is not interested in getting to and from Mars, and, say, simply wants to jump onto an asteroid, do a bit of space tourism, land back home ... then they take an awfully long time to get around.   I can't readily recall the asteroid, but a few years ago when I looked into the matter the best candidate I could find took something like three years to get back.   What's more, "near-earth" is not so near; regular transportation requires something a bit closer.   
MOON Ki  is  Muli Otieno Otiende Njoroge arap Kiprotich
Your True Friend, Brother,  and  Compatriot.

Offline veritas

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #46 on: August 13, 2017, 05:41:54 AM »
Veritas: Those orbits look really nice, but they won't help with regular transportation to and from Mars ... see where they are on a "map" that also includes Mars.  The other thing is that even if one is not interested in getting to and from Mars, and, say, simply wants to jump onto an asteroid, do a bit of space tourism, land back home ... then they take an awfully long time to get around.   I can't readily recall the asteroid, but a few years ago when I looked into the matter the best candidate I could find took something like three years to get back.   What's more, "near-earth" is not so near; regular transportation requires something a bit closer.   

I don't care for Mars- the same way I don't think anyone wants to live in Antarctica. They have landed on asteroids before to find it was mineral rich unlike Mars and other planets.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_landings_on_extraterrestrial_bodies

I don't care for space tourism. I wouldn't even go if someone offered me a ticket to Mars or even just orbit around Earth. I don't even watch the Discovery Channel because it BORES me. Seeing it face to face will just make me resent it even more because I could be spending that time shopping or having sex.

I'm talking about solving problems here on Earth like resource scarcity. Fixing up pollution, cleaning the atmosphere, making everything sustainable etc. etc.

Offline MOON Ki

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #47 on: August 13, 2017, 06:05:15 AM »
ARM is a great alternative to spaceships - am not sure about "less costly" but the timelines are quite behind SpaceX's calendar.

ARM as proposed by civil servants is not what I would go for, but one can learn from them.   Proper ARM will be less  costly.   Spaceships require fuel and maintenance and what not.   With proper ARM, the only real cost will be in getting the fuel-free/maintenance-free rock into orbit; getting to and from the rock will be like walking to and from a bus stop.

Quote
The thing with ARM I don't grasp is the existence of appropriate orbits - the ones running Earth-to-Mars or Mars-Jubiter - I get there are "stray" asteroids that near-collide with Earth now and then but are they stable and permanent? This is besides the small matter of successfully knocking asteroids into this orbit(s).

Not sure I get this one.   Are you thinking of natural orbits, those dull circle-like things?    None that are appropriate exist.    These will be new ones, fit for purpose.    They might even look like "zig-zags", with an asteroid moving this way and that way to balance itself between all sorts of gravitational forces.   

Yes, with so many other bodies out there, the question of stability and permanence will arise.     I think part of that can be addressed by having sufficiently large bodies, and part can be addressed by having a reserve bunch of rockets to be used for periodic adjustments. 

Quote
none of them solves the issue of the green-gas emitting folks you despise, do they? The global warmers. For the Mars solution they are likely to be early Martians owing to their deep pockets  :) The space enterprise is likely to go premium before getting round to the hoi polloi... and the early birds will have set up "industries" there to support the incoming masses :D - the tail and the dog.

True, but, as I see it, the implications are not what you seem to think.   No doubt it will be impossible to make sure that all the bad eggs are left behind.     But which would you bet on: (a) the "deep pockets", having literally paid dearly to get away, understanding that they have to mend their ways, or (b) the hoi polloi, who don't even know or understand what is going on, let alone their role in it, behaving properly when they get there?    No matter, this way of looking at things doesn't help in the long term; I think it is better to consider whether people have repented, or can be reformed, or can be woken up and educated.

I also have a different vision of the "early birds": They will be robots that will turn Mars-dust into bricks and concrete for housing and what-not; they will have a Noah's-Ark of animals to boot-up the animal life (minus certain nasties); seeds or seedlings for sukumawiki, cabbage, wheat, and what-not; equipment to dig up wells and make rivers, etc.    When we get there, it will be like arriving at a holiday resort with only most of the best of what we like of Earth.   Well, that's what I have in mind;  I don't care for the idea of paying good money to go do some hard "pioneer" slog in the middle of outer space.
MOON Ki  is  Muli Otieno Otiende Njoroge arap Kiprotich
Your True Friend, Brother,  and  Compatriot.

Offline veritas

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #48 on: August 13, 2017, 06:44:25 AM »
Nothing can grow on Mars.https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Vladimir_Pletser/publication/312030888_Growing_Vegetables_on_Mars_For_Human_Consumption_or_To_Ease_Psychological_Tension_Simulation_at_the_Mars_Desert_Research_Station/links/586b099908ae6eb871ba8c30/Growing-Vegetables-on-Mars-For-Human-Consumption-or-To-Ease-Psychological-Tension-Simulation-at-the-Mars-Desert-Research-Station.pdf

This is what they ate:



Like Termi said earlier, people will likely commit suicide from this sort of food day in day out.


CONCLUSIONS
The opportunity of a Mars simulation campaign was taken to perform preliminary studies of
potential impact of vegetables cultures on crew psychology. During 12 days, six
crewmembers have cultivated four crops from seeds to edible biomass. These cultures were
performed in two separated locations: the habitation module and the external greenhouse.
This last one could only be accessed under EVA conditions.
The crew members were asked to observe and comment on the germination and growth
processes, on the vegetable taste and on their feelings about eating this home grown
production. Comments included respect for other life forms in a lifeless environment,
reminiscence of past days, competition between species, and regrets after harvesting. Cycles
of two to three days were observed in the comment number and duration.
Although this limited experience cannot be statistically representative, a few remarks have
been noted. First, the preparation and the consumption phases seem to be the most attractive
for the crew. Second, the difficulty of EVA outings seems to counterbalance the interest of
the crew for these cultures. Third, the social event associated to the consumption of the
produced food was very well perceived. Fourth, radishes, as already pointed out in previous
studies, reach a high level of appreciation.
With this preliminary collection of psychological data, the authors have no will to raise any
definitive scientific conclusion.
It is well known that nutrition quality has a strong impact on
14
the crew psychology, and it was not possible during this study to separate the attraction of the
growth phase from the consumption phase (i.e. consumption of fresh products).
All preparation studies for Mars mission demonstrate that food production will be mandatory.
Consequently, benefit shall be taken to enhance the synergies between purely life support
investigations and crew psychology studies.

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #49 on: August 15, 2017, 12:58:13 PM »
veri & vooke - Tesla is over-valued right? Looks like folks are craving to over-invest some more  :)


Quote

Tesla, Inc. Bonds See Overwhelming Demand



Daniel Sparks (TMFDanielSparks) Aug 14, 2017 at 1:31PM


Tesla continues to have no trouble raising money to help fund its capital-intensive expansion for Model 3 production ramp-up. Despite receiving a junk rating from Moody's, Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) bond offering last week was oversubscribed.

Tesla announced on Friday that its proposed $1.5 billion senior note offering ended up generating $1.8 billion in aggregate principal notes, or 20% more than Tesla was initially looking for.



https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/08/14/tesla-inc-bonds-see-overwhelming-demand.aspx
I desire to go to hell and not to heaven. In the former place I shall enjoy the company of popes, kings, and princes, while in the latter are only beggars, monks, and apostles. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli on his deathbed, June 1527

Offline Globalcitizen12

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #50 on: August 15, 2017, 03:10:41 PM »
Telsa won't be the future. Bmw and Benz will lead this future. Telsa is a pr company. They leased two plants near me then they defaulted on the terms

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #51 on: August 15, 2017, 06:13:55 PM »
Telsa won't be the future. Bmw and Benz will lead this future. Telsa is a pr company. They leased two plants near me then they defaulted on the terms

Maybe. I wish you could stick to this plain English - most of the time I don't understand what you write here  :)
I desire to go to hell and not to heaven. In the former place I shall enjoy the company of popes, kings, and princes, while in the latter are only beggars, monks, and apostles. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli on his deathbed, June 1527

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #52 on: November 02, 2017, 12:46:31 PM »
Tesla in trouble... after failing to ramp up Model 3 production. They posted $600m Q3 loss and the stock slid 5%. Autopilot is also behind schedule - I think I spotted GM's Mary Barra grinning ear- to ear  :) despite her own bad report.  I'm not fully sold on the batteries being the biggest bottleneck. The automation - the machine that builds the machine - must be the glitch.

Tesla delays Model 3 production in its worst quarter
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41839826


http://fortune.com/2017/11/01/tesla-elon-musk-model-3-earnings/
I desire to go to hell and not to heaven. In the former place I shall enjoy the company of popes, kings, and princes, while in the latter are only beggars, monks, and apostles. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli on his deathbed, June 1527

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #53 on: November 02, 2017, 12:59:39 PM »
Musk can be bombastic. The battery spin.

Quote
I desire to go to hell and not to heaven. In the former place I shall enjoy the company of popes, kings, and princes, while in the latter are only beggars, monks, and apostles. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli on his deathbed, June 1527

Offline vooke

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #54 on: November 02, 2017, 02:30:36 PM »
2 Timothy 2:4  No man that warreth entangleth himself with the affairs of this life; that he may please him who hath chosen him to be a soldier.

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #55 on: November 02, 2017, 02:44:57 PM »

Hubris is good. Great stuff is made of it.

On a note they have it wrong with the autonomous driving. Autopilot is delayed by the millions of mileage Teslas must cover to "learn" how to drive autonomously. I think a hydra drone can collect the data much faster. This is rather awfully straightforward - I don't get the stalling.

Drones are the solution to a plethora of issues facing the AI crew. Including land- and seascaping for smart-homes, smart-grids, smart-roads, etc.

I am disappointed too that the automation - at the Gigafactory - is taking this long. I think Musk has been distracted by ongoings at SpaceX.
I desire to go to hell and not to heaven. In the former place I shall enjoy the company of popes, kings, and princes, while in the latter are only beggars, monks, and apostles. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli on his deathbed, June 1527

Offline Empedocles

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #56 on: November 02, 2017, 03:11:04 PM »
Musk is still looking east for the Model 3:

https://electrek.co/2017/11/02/tesla-factory-china-elon-musk/

Offline vooke

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #57 on: November 02, 2017, 03:51:04 PM »
2 Timothy 2:4  No man that warreth entangleth himself with the affairs of this life; that he may please him who hath chosen him to be a soldier.

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #58 on: November 06, 2017, 01:40:30 PM »
I desire to go to hell and not to heaven. In the former place I shall enjoy the company of popes, kings, and princes, while in the latter are only beggars, monks, and apostles. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli on his deathbed, June 1527

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #59 on: November 06, 2017, 02:53:02 PM »
Is bitcoin full speed in Kenya? I am getting a lot of queries about it. I am just telling folks it smells like a pyramid and i haven't cared enough to look at the details