Busia -I agree on Ababu (lightweight paper tiger) - though I think with Mama LPK Ojiambo - they might get something small for Jubilee. After ODM rigged out Otuoma - Busia is not enthusiastic about NASA that much. Ababu is working with Ojiambo & Chris Okemo on luhya front. Iteso will probably do what they've done - split the vote - you've URP Odera and Amase working Jubilee front there.
Tesos will vote 100% for NASA. They have a governorship to protect. The people you name will vanish due to Ojaamong's coattails. Teso is a minority proud to have their own ahead.
Busia's is negotiated democracy. Busia is one place where there is really no dominant tribe or clan. They learn to live together making compromises. The Samia, Marachi, Nyala, Khayo, Luo, Bukusu, Bakisa (Ug) all intermingle with no issues about belonging. The same seamlessly crosses into Uganda.
If Otuoma (Samia) plays the ethnic card, how sure are you the Marachi, Khayo etc would follow? The posts have been meticulously been distributed by ODM through tough negotiations.
For example Senator Amos Wako is a Khayo; Woman Rep. Florence Mutua - Samia; Governor Ojaamong - Teso. The reason Deputy Governor Kizito Wangalwa withdrew voluntarily was so a new candidate to address the balance was needed. In fact the change addressed deep concerns within the Marachi tribe:
Busia Governor Sospeter Ojaamong has unveiled a new running mate, a day after Deputy Governor Kizito Wangalwa withdrew his participation as the running mate the Governor.
Addressing the press after being cleared by the IEBC to contest in the August 8th general elections, the Governor named his running mate as Moses Mulomi.
Coincidentally, Mulomi ,60, hails from the Marachi community, the same as the outgoing Deputy Governor Kizito Wangalwa. - http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/06/01/ojaamong-unveils-new-running-mate_c1572524
Vihiga - Jubilee scores zero here.
true
Kakamega -Where I think Jubilee will scores votes is among the Wangas - Mumias East (Washiali), Mumias West (Rashid the Thug from Shebelle slums) and Were (going for 3rd or 4 time) in Matungu. Wangas knows Kidero & Raila are responsible for woes facing Mumias - and they have leaders Raila cannot easily intimidated - Washiali-Were-Rashid!
Jubilee should investigate the link between the Luo and Wanga and stop day dreaming. I am not going to help you there.
Bungoma -- this one is very exciting. Wetangula running for Senator and being relegated below MaDVD means Bukusu are not excited about NASA. Opinion polls are showing Lusaka is very strong. All Mps in Bungoma are batting for Jubilee except Wamunyinyi. Jubilee will probably win 1/3 - guaranteed about 10-15% (from Sabaot+Kikuyus) - and some few from Lusaka, Wakule and all the rest.
Re-open the Panpaper factory to give Lusaka a chance to hold even one public rally without being pelted with stones then shooting his own voters and sparking off funerals at which he is cursed and Bukusus conduct dangerous rituals and oathing everyone not to vote for "
the Murderer Lusaka"
Jubilee looks likely to improve from 5% in western to 10%...
Get it from me for free: 0.001% itself is a mountain.
Lakini Jubilee tawe 
Means: Anybody But Jubilee
Pundit, there you have lost it. Ababu took Ruto's money and he will deliver nothing. His only hope is Jubilee wins the presidency and he will be given a government appointement. All those Luhya areas bordering Nyanza are basically a mixture of Luhyas and Luos. Even the names are hard to differentiate if Luo or Luhya. Culturally even the Samia of Busia County do not circumcise men just like the Luo.
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Topic: Omollo -Western - Jubilee tawe? (Read 1545 times)