Jubilee party set to be unveil on sept 9th as 9-12 parties dissolve

[RV Pundit]

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This party is not very critical for Uhuru win next year but is crucial for Ruto win in 2022..and it all starting to fall in place.
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/nine-jubilee-parties-give-notice-to-fold-and-support-uhuru/1064-3336862-31uqfjz/index.html

[RV Pundit]

Uhuru is unveiling the party now in statehouse.Party nomination to be done by IEBC? Really - how much will that cost.

Parties to hold conference on 8th Sept 2016 to dissolve and join Jubilee party.

9-10th Sept Jubilee convention to unveil interim party leaders.

[Nefertiti]

I just wish our parties were ideology- driven and policy- based on posterity. Not expediency like Jubilee. What is their stand on devolution, equalization, EAC regional integration, etc? Jubilee is just one more name like NARC.

It will take years but once this banal tribalism declines we will end up with Kanu, Kadu model.

KANU - nationalist, centrist. Big tribes e.g. Gema, Luhya, etc

KADU - federalist/pro- more devolution and more equalization. Small tribes, pastoralists, etc

We are not likely to have western Left-right divide like LGBT rights until bread and butter issues and poverty end with real economic growth. Years and decades.

This Kanu 2.0 will die with Ruto; even the name implies it is a temporary convenience.

[RV Pundit]

Yeah - it will take some many more years before we can have issue-based parties.

I just wish our parties were ideology- driven and policy- based on posterity. Not expediency like Jubilee. What is their stand on devolution, equalization, EAC regional integration, etc? Jubilee is just one more name like NARC.

It will take years but once this banal tribalism declines we will end up with Kanu, Kadu model.

KANU - nationalist, centrist. Big tribes e.g. Gema, Luhya, etc

KADU - federalist/pro- more devolution and more equalization. Small tribes, pastoralists, etc

We are not likely to have western Left-right divide like LGBT rights until bread and butter issues and poverty end with real economic growth. Years and decades.

This Kanu 2.0 will die with Ruto; even the name implies it is a temporary convenience.

[Kichwa]

What makes it take many years is bad leadership.  If you have non-ideological people like Ruto and Ouru as leaders then it will take many many years.  Social and political changes need leadership.  We would still be under colonial rule if not for leadership.  If not for the 2nd liberation leaders we would still be under single party dictatorship. If not for "kibaki tosha"  and if Ouru won in 2002, Kanu would still be a dominant party in Kenya.  If Ouru and Ruto succeed with this JAP thing the country will be regressing back to the old single party dominance that Ruto wants.  Ruto admires dictators like Museveni and Kagame and that is his vision for Kenya.  He is going to fail because the cat is out of the bag and he cannot force it back in.  JAP will fail because Kenya has moved beyond dictatorship.  The JAP coalition is too big to be sustained for a long time. JAP can help in Ouru's re-election but it will never be around for Ruto.  The roof is just too heavy for the house to sustain.  The only way to sustain big tent coalitions like Cord and Jubilee is to break them up into small parties and bring them together for a few months leading to the elections and then let them go when governing.  Once all the leadership in JAP is filled, there will be enough people left out to form another formidable political coalition just as big. CORD should just wait and absorb all the disgruntled elements that will be left out.  JAP does not have enough leadership positions to keep all the political ego maniacs from central and Kalenjinland happily united for five years.  Kenya politics can become ideological if the right leaders come to power.  Before Obama, many swore  that the USA will never have a black leader for another 100 years. That came to pass.

[Georgesoros]

Ideology kitu gani.
These parties are prostitutes, sleep with anyone as long as every party benefits.

I just wish our parties were ideology- driven and policy- based on posterity. Not expediency like Jubilee. What is their stand on devolution, equalization, EAC regional integration, etc? Jubilee is just one more name like NARC.

It will take years but once this banal tribalism declines we will end up with Kanu, Kadu model.

KANU - nationalist, centrist. Big tribes e.g. Gema, Luhya, etc

KADU - federalist/pro- more devolution and more equalization. Small tribes, pastoralists, etc

We are not likely to have western Left-right divide like LGBT rights until bread and butter issues and poverty end with real economic growth. Years and decades.

This Kanu 2.0 will die with Ruto; even the name implies it is a temporary convenience.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Every election the anti-Raila outfit unveils a new "platform".  New party colors.  Slogans.  Mascots.  Same monkeys.

The interesting bit is that they always manage to convince their base that this is something different.

[Nefertiti]

It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first.

--Ronald Reagan

Ideology kitu gani.
These parties are prostitutes, sleep with anyone as long as every party benefits.

[RV Pundit]

If Jubilee can conduct free and fair nomination; I see them winning 60-70% of all seats! They just need to conduct free and fair election - and goD help cord. Convincing 14 parties to dissolve and merge is not easy and that shows you Jubilee duo know what they're doing.

[Kadudu]

Only individuals benefit. The party only exists on paper.

Ideology kitu gani.
These parties are prostitutes, sleep with anyone as long as every party benefits.

[Nefertiti]

After 2017 the members will squabble for next DPORK and tribal cracks will emerge. The koolaid won't last.

If Jubilee can conduct free and fair nomination; I see them winning 60-70% of all seats! They just need to conduct free and fair election - and goD help cord. Convincing 14 parties to dissolve and merge is not easy and that shows you Jubilee duo know what they're doing.

[Pajero]

This is pure mockery and childs play.This is basically URP and TNA merging.Other parties are just flower girls. FPK-1 MP,NARC-3 MPS,APK-5 MPS,NFK-4 MPS,UDF-2 MPS,PDP-1 MP.

[RV Pundit]

That is only undecided post for 2017- I think the seat is reserved for GEMA - meru might want to have a stamp but I think it will go to Kikuyus.

After 2017 the members will squabble for next DPORK and tribal cracks will emerge. The koolaid won't last.

[Kichwa]

JAP can only help ouru in 2017 but will not survive to help Ruto in 2022.  The "kikuyus owe me " is not compelling enough to sustain a party of that magnitude  until 2022.

[RV Pundit]

Doesn't make sense. Uhuru didn't need Jap to win 2012 and he doesn't need it now. All Uhuru need is Ruto nod. Jubilee is the party that Uhuru & Ruto need to herd GEMA to back Ruto 2022...the party which I project will have more than 200 out of 350mps...will be hard for a spoiler to rebel and upstage the apple cart.

JAP can only help ouru in 2017 but will not survive to help Ruto in 2022.  The "kikuyus owe me " is not compelling enough to sustain a party of that magnitude  until 2022.

[RV Pundit]

If you add 79 URP and 85 TNA mps - you're talking close to 200mps - with many CORD mps openly rebelling and leaning towards Jubilee. This party has the real ability to win super-majority in parliament; That is just about 230mps. If they just conduct free and fair nomination - and I think they will - then brace yourself for one largest party in recent history.

This is pure mockery and childs play.This is basically URP and TNA merging.Other parties are just flower girls. FPK-1 MP,NARC-3 MPS,APK-5 MPS,NFK-4 MPS,UDF-2 MPS,PDP-1 MP.

[Nefertiti]

This is my point Pundit. How long did NARC and ODM last? Due to our tribal politics, you will see NFK or APK insisting next DPORK must be picked democratically... halafu?

Even ANC has outlived its anti-apartheid credentials.

If you add 79 URP and 85 TNA mps - you're talking close to 200mps - with many CORD mps openly rebelling and leaning towards Jubilee. This party has the real ability to win super-majority in parliament; That is just about 230mps. If they just conduct free and fair nomination - and I think they will - then brace yourself for one largest party in recent history.

[Empedocles]

Doesn't make sense. Uhuru didn't need Jap to win 2012 and he doesn't need it now. All Uhuru need is Ruto nod. Jubilee is the party that Uhuru & Ruto need to herd GEMA to back Ruto 2022...the party which I project will have more than 200 out of 350mps...will be hard for a spoiler to rebel and upstage the apple cart.

It does make sense. Why was the PNU formed?

Same reasons here.

In this case, hamper Ruto so come 2022 when the inevitable happens (no endorsement), he'll run around confused cobbling up another party.

The writing is on the wall for Ruto come 2022.

[RV Pundit]

You don't make much sense either. Uhuru doesn't need JAP. He already become PORK without one. This party is meant to tightly couple communities in Jubilee into a very tight embrace so Ruto can inherit Uhuru mantle without much as a whimper. If Uhuru or GEMA didn't want to endorse Ruto - they won't go for tight coupling. It would have been same coalition where each party will be free to choose their partners. Now this is a MARRIAGE. The come-we-stay has ended.If you are planning to seperate with someone..you don't go ahead and formalize a marriage. The divorce if you want to happen now is going to be pretty difficult and messy. Get it? Or do I need to include pictures? The idea is for anybody (Uhuru is not going against his word) who will want to upstage the apple cart in Jubilee - Uhuru 10 and Ruto 10 - then he has to instigate a messy divorce. He has to go form another party and try to sell in whatever corner. Now imagine say an ambitious GEMA politician (they are a dozen - esp the governor who will not ran again in 2017) want to say take advantage of GEMA political resource -he will have to break up Jubilee party--that won't be easy because Jubilee will be such a national party - he'll be laughed out of town. This is KANU 2.0. That is how Moi of the small tribe managed to hold onto power in 78 and keep it for 24yrs - a strong party-- Jomo has killed the party coz he didn't need it - Moi needed this big umbrella where all the tribes would feel at home. That is Jubilee. Raila had by mere chance nearly replicated this in ODM--and when Kalonzo bolted-- he only bolted with Kambas.

You have all the hint out there that Jubilee is Ruto's vehicle to presidency but you refuse to hear or see. What you're going to witness is a party so big it will be akin to old KANU. Tough luck trying to beat KANU at it apex. If Moi had not mishandled 2002 KANU nomination by ; Kibaki would never have become PORK.

It does make sense. Why was the PNU formed?

Same reasons here.

In this case, hamper Ruto so come 2022 when the inevitable happens (no endorsement), he'll run around confused cobbling up another party.

The writing is on the wall for Ruto come 2022.

[Empedocles]

You don't make much sense either. Uhuru doesn't need JAP. He already become PORK without one. This party is meant to tightly couple communities in Jubilee into a very tight embrace so Ruto can inherit Uhuru mantle without much as a whimper. If Uhuru or GEMA didn't want to endorse Ruto - they won't go for tight coupling. It would have been same coalition where each party will be free to choose their partners. Now this is a MARRIAGE. The come-we-stay has ended.If you are planning to seperate with someone..you don't go ahead and formalize a marriage. The divorce if you want to happen now is going to be pretty difficult and messy. Get it? Or do I need to include pictures? The idea is for anybody (Uhuru is not going against his word) who will want to upstage the apple cart in Jubilee - Uhuru 10 and Ruto 10 - then he has to instigate a messy divorce. He has to go form another party and try to sell in whatever corner. Now imagine say an ambitious GEMA politician (they are a dozen - esp the governor who will not ran again in 2017) want to say take advantage of GEMA political resource -he will have to break up Jubilee party--that won't be easy because Jubilee will be such a national party - he'll be laughed out of town. This is KANU 2.0. That is how Moi of the small tribe managed to hold onto power in 78 and keep it for 24yrs - a strong party-- Jomo has killed the party coz he didn't need it - Moi needed this big umbrella where all the tribes would feel at home. That is Jubilee. Raila had by mere chance nearly replicated this in ODM--and when Kalonzo bolted-- he only bolted with Kambas.

You have all the hint out there that Jubilee is Ruto's vehicle to presidency but you refuse to hear or see. What you're going to witness is a party so big it will be akin to old KANU. Tough luck trying to beat KANU at it apex. If Moi had not mishandled 2002 KANU nomination by ; Kibaki would never have become PORK.

What happened with RAO and KANU? What happened with NARC and PNU? Why was ODM founded and why did Kalonzo take off to the hills tightly clutching ODM-K's certificate?

The precedence very highly suggests the exact same thing is gonna happen to Ruto. JAP is an attempt (so far successful) to deny Ruto his own party before he's dumped pre-2022.

And it's funny you mention Moi mishandling KANU and therefore receiving a thrashing from Kibaki when the other disgruntled clowns jamas (RAO et al) ran away. Uhuru is following the exact same playbook Moi tried with RAO.