How big is voter apathy.may be we should use 1997

[KenyanPlato]

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Turnout as the projection. I am not sure but I believe after 1992 defeat, 1997 elections were just a formality and most opposition voters had given up. The opposition was still divided. Talking to people from central yesterday. I felt that the older generation or those above 35 years are the only ones willing to committ to vote. Aslo, this depends on social class. Well up kikuyus are okay with voting but those in the informal sector do not feel their vote will amount to anything. Voter registration has shown there is voters apathy

[RV Pundit]

Yes 1997 - Matiba literally burnt his Id and it was forgone conclusion Moi would win. It was pretty boring until someone guys - prof Nyongos - propped Ngilu and she got some excitement with her socialism - maasa na Ngilu.

This is one is totally confusing - the usual lines of war are blurred. You can tell an enemy from a friend.

I think we will do 10 percent down from 85 percent in 2013 - I think 2017 was also highs of 70s - 79? - repeat was 39 percent - meaning about 78 percent.

2017 - NASA were excited with addition of maDVD - but Ruto had slowly eaten into their base - and Jubilee improved in many areas.

Same fate awaits Azimio - Ruto has slowly eaten into Raila core - and come election time he will be very shocked.

[KenyanPlato]

Yes 1997 - Matiba literally burnt his Id and it was forgone conclusion Moi would win. It was pretty boring until someone guys - prof Nyongos - propped Ngilu and she got some excitement with her socialism - maasa na Ngilu.

This is one is totally confusing - the usual lines of war are blurred. You can tell an enemy from a friend.

I think we will do 10 percent down from 85 percent in 2013 - I think 2017 was also highs of 70s - 79? - repeat was 39 percent - meaning about 78 percent.

2017 - NASA were excited with addition of maDVD - but Ruto had slowly eaten into their base - and Jubilee improved in many areas.

Same fate awaits Azimio - Ruto has slowly eaten into Raila core - and come election time he will be very shocked.

That wad my mum's conclusion voters in Central are confused. They do not know who will win so that they canxsupport them. None of the teams has euphoria behind them. Everyone even politicians are bidding their time
 Still listening to a mixed ground

[RV Pundit]

Outside Kalenjin and Luo zones- the same feeling is felt across board - it almost 50-50 everywhere - there is no real divide - no clear lines of war - maybe the alignment.

In fact outside two stronghold of Luo and kalenjin - I expect every candidate will score more than 25 (even 35) percent in all the counties.

That wad my mum's conclusion voters in Central are confused. They do not know who will win so that they canxsupport them. None of the teams has euphoria behind them. Everyone even politicians are bidding their time
 Still listening to a mixed ground

[KenyanPlato]

Interesting. If I was a pokomo there is nothing that would make me go and vote. There is no motivation. I think uda should promise to do away with cbc. This may excite parents with school children

[RV Pundit]

Other seats are worth voting for - this is what has sustained turnout post 2010. We have six elections. So you may not like PORK - but there is MCA, MP, etc to vote for.

Previously it was just vote councillor, MP and PORK - with MP and councillor useless - CDF made Mps useful - governors are important and so are MCA.

So turnout will be high - maybe 70-75 percent - it cannot go back to lows of 50 or 60 percent.

Interesting. If I was a pokomo there is nothing that would make me go and vote. There is no motivation. I think uda should promise to do away with cbc. This may excite parents with school children

[KenyanPlato]

Yes..the county elections make it worthy.