When I said this ODMorons wanted me banned

[RV Pundit]

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https://nation.africa/kenya/blogs-opinion/opinion/let-s-avoid-the-apocalypse-3633194

I agree with conclusion....anything less than free and fair election in August that see Ruto losing will spark a war.

[GeeMail]

https://nation.africa/kenya/blogs-opinion/opinion/let-s-avoid-the-apocalypse-3633194

I agree with conclusion....anything less than free and fair election in August that see Ruto losing will spark a war.

Ingredient of 2007 PEV very different. First it means Kenyans generally agree Raila won 2007 against Kibaki. If 2022 get stolen one assume it would be stolen by same people who stole 2013/2017 without PEV. Ruto major beneficiary of both thefts, so what changed?Second, PEV had never happened before in that scale so everyone completely unprepared. Things different this time.

Of all people Pundit you know underlying issues in PEV. Land, power balance, corruption, marginalization and others. Bandia high priest want power but still glorify landgrabs, marginalization (Kondele Boys for example). He also make corruption addictive new religion and pretend to complain about corrupt election. If high priest of corruption he should celebrate and invite corrupt election. Be consistent for once.

[RV Pundit]

Useless theories.
Now listen careful...I hate repeating this uncomfortable debate - with  gruesome details.
It's all about Kalenjin - warriors and their readiness to fight what they perceive as an injustice.
If Raila is rigged - Luos will protest as they do - throw stones - mostly in Kondele and Kibera. We saw in 2013, 92, 97 and lately in 2017.
Raila even swore himself as people president.
If Luhya is rigged out - they probably wont even care.

Now think Kalenjin. What will kalenjin do when they perceive an injustice. What will united Kalenjin people of 7m people with 2m warriors do.Simple they will riot. How will they riot? They will not throw stones. They will go to war.

Ruto will decide how war pans out - by how he plays - if he plays hard like I know he does - it will be long months in hell for kenya - and we may have to get federal constitution in kenya.

Who is their enemy - well anybody opposed to Ruto.

Once they start - the enemies will also retaliate - and kenya will be engufled in war. Even in 2007 the epicenter was mostly in RV.

That is a given.

Now second thing in this election is a possibility of CLASS WAR especially in Mt Kenya. This Hustler Nation is class war.
I see poor in Mt Kenya - if Kalenjin do not attack kikuyus indiscriminately - attacking their own rich families.
This what is already happening - there is class divide.

Now your theories about sijui corruption and land grabs...those are details.

The reality is Kalenjin feel betrayed by Uhuru (not GEMA) already - they are already angry but have to smile until 9th August. If RUto wins they will be very happy. If Ruto wins and is rigged out. They will rage.

My biggest fear is security responses - if they go hard - Kalenjin in security sector will break up - and then we get a civil war.

If Museveni also think Raila is such a threat to him - he is already very paranoid - he will likely sponsor a Kalenjin war - and all kalenjin need are few Ak47s - because they are already half -trained in war and have war infrastructure.

The terrain in RV is also very favourable for long querrilla warfare - with forests and hills - georges - and a united Kalenjin would definitely shutdown half the country.

In terms of IDPS - we are talking possibly 2 million.

Ingredient of 2007 PEV very different. First it means Kenyans generally agree Raila won 2007 against Kibaki. If 2022 get stolen one assume it would be stolen by same people who stole 2013/2017 without PEV. Ruto major beneficiary of both thefts, so what changed?Second, PEV had never happened before in that scale so everyone completely unprepared. Things different this time.

Of all people Pundit you know underlying issues in PEV. Land, power balance, corruption, marginalization and others. Bandia high priest want power but still glorify landgrabs, marginalization (Kondele Boys for example). He also make corruption addictive new religion and pretend to complain about corrupt election. If high priest of corruption he should celebrate and invite corrupt election. Be consistent for once.

[GeeMail]

I see why this uncomfortable to you. Just one question before long insha. If bandia high priest benefit from election corruption before what should change now? And why?

[RV Pundit]

Kalenjin have rigged no doubt - in Moi era. These last election - SHOW ME ANY EVIDENCE of rigging in Kalenjin land.

But they will go to war because they CAN. It's about the capacity here to right a perceived injustice.
 
Ruto knows he has 2 million trained warriors at his disposal - all he need to say "It's rigged" - just like Raila knows he has thousands stone throwers - that he is using all over in handshake brought peace argument.

The day Kalenjin stop training boys to prepare them for war every year - then you can ask me more stupid question.

Ruto job is simple. Just say I have been rigged out. Then fly out to asylum. The rest Kalenjin will handle. Until the day Ruto say stop. He doesnt need to organize anything. Kalenjin are organized and ready. Maybe if he want to finish kenya - he can provide guns and mortars.. Kenya will truly join the failed state if that happens...for if SDLF defeated GSU/APs and KDF had to bomb a bunch of Sabaots or Pokots...just imagine 2 million kalenjin who are adept in fighting facing kenya gov. Kenya gov will not match that....they will simply avoid Kalenjin land.

You will be flying from Kisumu to Nairobi to get home.

I see why this uncomfortable to you. Just one question before long insha. If bandia high priest benefit from election corruption before what should change now? And why?

[GeeMail]

I see. Any plan for Kiambaa?

[RV Pundit]

Kiambaa was not part of the plan. This time I am afraid it could be the plan. Kalenjin in 2007 were interested in eviction. Not killing. Most were being urged to self-evict - just leave the area - and go home. Rudi Kwenu.

This time round they may decide they have given up hope on project kenya and go on for killing. If security forces kill kalenjin - kalenjin will kill many.

Remember 2007 - it was really a Luo pro bono thing kalenjin were helping - initially people were blocking roads leading to kisumu as Kibaki filled all the morgues there - in other areas assisting Luo in urban areas to battle mungiki -  and Raila was a coward - because if he was Ruto - he would NOT have accepted for his victory to be stolen.

Kalenjin told Raila to go to eldoret or kisumu and swear himself as PORK - but he is a coward. Ruto told him to ask for repeat election - nothing less. He saw a chopper and outriders...he accepted.

Ruto is very brave and will not budge. To rig a Kalenjin king like Ruto or Moi then - have three steel balls - you will need them. Kalenjin will erupt - not Kondele or Kibra - but entire POPULATION - in a single night - and overrun everything anti-Ruto in few hours. Very few tribes can erupt like Kalenjin - all at once - all armed and ready to fight. A few like yours truly will spend time hidding - becuase the following day - there will be people going door to door - looking for those that didnt respond to the war cry. They beat you - they hand you weapons - and match you to the war frontline

Anyway this time round - I am too old - my age set is retired as warriors - ours was in 1992 - but I was too young. Kaplelach...you will see the name in 92 areas...named in honour of age set. 2007 was kipnyinge - you will see a lot of that name...even Kiambaa i think was renamed Kipnyinge.Now I think there is new age set but Kipnyinge still fall in the warrior ageset. So look like I will be sleeping well if war breaks out.

I see. Any plan for Kiambaa?

[Njuri Ncheke]

True all this will happen in Kalenjin RV don't expect any other place in Kenya to erupt.

[RV Pundit]

Mt kenya (GEMA) it will be like Kiambaa. Kalenjin villages of Kiambaa were given ultimatum to evict or they will all get evicted.

Njuri Kalenjin will give you the ultimatum of 3 days to deal with your dynasties.

Or they will deal with all of your indiscriminately.

True all this will happen in Kalenjin RV don't expect any other place in Kenya to erupt.

[Njuri Ncheke]

Mt kenya (GEMA) it will be like Kiambaa. Kalenjin villages of Kiambaa were given ultimatum to evict or they will all get evicted.

Njuri Kalenjin will give you the ultimatum of 3 days to deal with your dynasties.

Or they will deal with all of your indiscriminately.

True all this will happen in Kalenjin RV don't expect any other place in Kenya to erupt.

who are you to give us ultimatum s ?mursik unakunywa ni hatari sana
Basically we also will be very aggrieved when rigging occurs and gatheca better not try it at all because it won't end up well and would lead to the liquidation of Kenyatta dynasty.
But we don't have anyone to attack we Merus will be watching tv as usual hoping Kikuyu can reverse any attacks on them in RV

[RV Pundit]

Anyway Ruto will have to really messed up big time to lose. It impossible for him to lose.

who are you to give us ultimatum s ?mursik unakunywa ni hatari sana
Basically we also will be very aggrieved when rigging occurs and gatheca better not try it at all because it won't end up well and would lead to the liquidation of Kenyatta dynasty.
But we don't have anyone to attack we Merus will be watching tv as usual hoping Kikuyu can reverse any attacks on them in RV

[Nowayhaha]

Kibaki won 2007 fair and square. Ruto will win 2022 fair and square.
Raila tried this strategy of fwar mongering in 2013 .It never worked.
The only way Raila will make Ruto face defeat is if he toshas someone else. By the look of things he wont. Uhuru through help of NIS has already told him to Tosha someome else instead Raila started campaiging immediately. Ruto is laughing all the way to the bank.

[Omollo]

There's only one test of free elections: the time it takes to announce results. In kenya all results can.be known by 10pm. If you're going past midnight and hearing stories of transport problems in Tharaka-Nithi... know you've been fucked!

[Omollo]

How is a brainless troll muted in this forum? I forgot

[Nowayhaha]

Just do a Robina. Nobody will miss. Its not as if the forum stopped ehen you were away.

How is a brainless troll muted in this forum? I forgot

[RV Pundit]

With granular polling station reporting; it should take less than 30 minutes to know; the result should be in once a few random polling stations have reported...say 2,000. The rest will be irrelevant as percentage will not change.

But we know NASA and CORD - started saying it was algorithm - when it's pure science

There's only one test of free elections: the time it takes to announce results. In kenya all results can.be known by 10pm. If you're going past midnight and hearing stories of transport problems in Tharaka-Nithi... know you've been fucked!

[Gikomba_Hawker]

All right thinking Kenyans want a free and fair election.

Rigged elections existed even during Moi and I do not recall Ruto being overly concerned. In fact, he was a thug for Moi. Actually, his wish was for Moi's rule to continue indefinitely while others were paying a heavy price to end the Nyayo era.

Why don't you include a strong cooperation with the International Criminal Court as part of the solution? Why do rabid Ruto supporters like you never mention the ICC yet it is designed to bring justice to those who may use electoral malpractice to settle old scores, and remove certain Kenyans from areas they illegally consider theirs alone?

Isn't the ICC a wonderful deterrent for electoral malpractice if this is truly why you are now crying?

Just because we have corrupt politicians in Kenya (and Ruto is certainly one of them), why should ordinary Kenyans pay for their mistakes? If you love Kenya more than you love Ruto, you would have no hesitation in bringing the ICC front and center. Can you be counted on to support all outstanding ICC cases brought to their rightful conclusion?

https://nation.africa/kenya/blogs-opinion/opinion/let-s-avoid-the-apocalypse-3633194

I agree with conclusion....anything less than free and fair election in August that see Ruto losing will spark a war.

Ingredient of 2007 PEV very different. First it means Kenyans generally agree Raila won 2007 against Kibaki. If 2022 get stolen one assume it would be stolen by same people who stole 2013/2017 without PEV. Ruto major beneficiary of both thefts, so what changed?Second, PEV had never happened before in that scale so everyone completely unprepared. Things different this time.

Of all people Pundit you know underlying issues in PEV. Land, power balance, corruption, marginalization and others. Bandia high priest want power but still glorify landgrabs, marginalization (Kondele Boys for example). He also make corruption addictive new religion and pretend to complain about corrupt election. If high priest of corruption he should celebrate and invite corrupt election. Be consistent for once.

[KenyanPlato]

Pundit

Kalenjins will fight alone. Kikuyu poor won't be attacking their rich. That won't happen. Those elites that have stolen from the government are very few in Central and none of them actually permanently live in rural central most are longtime nairobi residents. Kikuyus won't fight a class war unless it is about land. The only beef they have over land is with maa and kalenjins.

The way kenyans elections are messy I except 2022 not to be an exception. If this gives warrior an excuse for war that js on them. Otherwise I see a scenario like 1992 and 1997 where kalenjins will be the only one evicting kikuyus in rift Valley. This will mean that in 2027 ruto can forget ever being president..ruto is a coward and an opportunist plus he is not stupid so I except him to do a Bobi wine and accept elections results and move on

[RV Pundit]

ICC is not deterring war crimes and crimes against humanity in Ethiopia.
ICC is restorative justice system - it aint going to stop war. Yes it's a deterrent - but remember for Ruto - the premise that he organized warriors is false - and all Ruto need to do this time - is take a flight abroad - maybe even in Hague - and watch with his lawyer cum prosecutor Karim Khan.
Ruto if it happen again - will very likely fly abroad - and have solid Alibi - that he doesnt control warriors.
What stop wars is direct intervention and actions by likes of US - sanctions and such.

All right thinking Kenyans want a free and fair election.

Rigged elections existed even during Moi and I do not recall Ruto being overly concerned. In fact, he was a thug for Moi. Actually, his wish was for Moi's rule to continue indefinitely while others were paying a heavy price to end the Nyayo era.

Why don't you include a strong cooperation with the International Criminal Court as part of the solution? Why do rabid Ruto supporters like you never mention the ICC yet it is designed to bring justice to those who may use electoral malpractice to settle old scores, and remove certain Kenyans from areas they illegally consider theirs alone?

Isn't the ICC a wonderful deterrent for electoral malpractice if this is truly why you are now crying?

Just because we have corrupt politicians in Kenya (and Ruto is certainly one of them), why should ordinary Kenyans pay for their mistakes? If you love Kenya more than you love Ruto, you would have no hesitation in bringing the ICC front and center. Can you be counted on to support all outstanding ICC cases brought to their rightful conclusion?

https://nation.africa/kenya/blogs-opinion/opinion/let-s-avoid-the-apocalypse-3633194

I agree with conclusion....anything less than free and fair election in August that see Ruto losing will spark a war.

Ingredient of 2007 PEV very different. First it means Kenyans generally agree Raila won 2007 against Kibaki. If 2022 get stolen one assume it would be stolen by same people who stole 2013/2017 without PEV. Ruto major beneficiary of both thefts, so what changed?Second, PEV had never happened before in that scale so everyone completely unprepared. Things different this time.

Of all people Pundit you know underlying issues in PEV. Land, power balance, corruption, marginalization and others. Bandia high priest want power but still glorify landgrabs, marginalization (Kondele Boys for example). He also make corruption addictive new religion and pretend to complain about corrupt election. If high priest of corruption he should celebrate and invite corrupt election. Be consistent for once.

[RV Pundit]

If Raila goes in - it's going to be long battle -and kenya will go to civil war anyway - so at that point Ruto and RV wont really care - if civil war start now or later

I think you're mistaken to think Ruto is a coward. Hapo you score zero. Moi was a coward. Raila is a coward. Ruto has no reverse gear.

If election are rigged - it's very likely all diaspora of all tribes in RV - will get kicked.

The security force and other tribe response will determine if war ends quickly or it's become civil war.

It also depend on RV leaders...if they escalate to guns...kenya is gone. Kalenjin warriors need very few arms because they are very adept in war...especially night time battles.

Pundit

Kalenjins will fight alone. Kikuyu poor won't be attacking their rich. That won't happen. Those elites that have stolen from the government are very few in Central and none of them actually permanently live in rural central most are longtime nairobi residents. Kikuyus won't fight a class war unless it is about land. The only beef they have over land is with maa and kalenjins.

The way kenyans elections are messy I except 2022 not to be an exception. If this gives warrior an excuse for war that js on them. Otherwise I see a scenario like 1992 and 1997 where kalenjins will be the only one evicting kikuyus in rift Valley. This will mean that in 2027 ruto can forget ever being president..ruto is a coward and an opportunist plus he is not stupid so I except him to do a Bobi wine and accept elections results and move on