OKA look set to split

[RV Pundit]

• Tweet

Ford-K and ANC look keen to either go alone or make a deal with Ruto.

Kalonzo and Gideon - look set for Azimio ya Raila. I still dont understand Gideon-Uhuru gameplan. Kalonzo as always is hoping he will be the last man standing

https://www.the-star.co.ke/counties/western/2021-11-27-dont-give-ultimatums-kalonzo-tells-malala-over-raila-link/

[KenyanPlato]

Mudavadi is going with ruto. However, he is too lazy. A mkono gum and drunkard.. I think omolllo said he drinks in back street bars to avoid spending..kamlesh bought his loyalty with a bottle of Chivas Regal

[RV Pundit]

But surely he is being used by Raila for such a long time. He will not even feature in Raila team. In Ruto team - both him and MaDVD can get 1/3 of the gov. I believe Ruto has that offer...for either of the two.

In rather obvious that Raila and Ruto are going to make good offer to Mt kenya - including DPORK.

In MOASS I see OKA providing about 14 percent combined - with Kalonzo at 7 percent; Gideon at 1 percent; MaDVD+Weta are at 6 percent.

For Ruto that 6 percent is the rigging margin he will need to finish comfortably in 1st round - otherwise right now he doesnt have a buffer.

Ideally OKA could have played for second round - but Ruto could finish it in 1st round like happened in 2013. So that is not a smart strategy.

Mudavadi is going with ruto. However, he is too lazy. A mkono gum and drunkard.. I think omolllo said he drinks in back street bars to avoid spending..kamlesh bought his loyalty with a bottle of Chivas Regal

[RV Pundit]

MOASS OKA can hope to get votes of 14 percent - they are weaken because in their stronghold both Ruto and Raila look likely to get some substantial votes

[Stockguru]

Oka is just Mudavadi for now. it is dead. Kalonzo will keep his umalaya going until April.

[RV Pundit]

They will all likely to play hard to catch until May - the deadline for coalition - because they aint getting DPORK. So Kalonzo cannot rush to Ukambani with a deal that doesnt even make him DPORK - neither can MaDVD.

I dont see Raila or Ruto naming a DPORK so soon - both are keen to name Kikuyu if not Mt kenya candidate as running mate. So the drama will continue for next 5 months although deals will be inked behind the scenes.

Raila baldy need entire OKA to unite - and give him 45 percent he had in NASA - so he can look for 5 percent in Jubilee (mt kenya).

Without all the OKA 13-14 percent - he is DEAD as DODO. Kalonzo alone would take him to 42 percent (with GEMA already at 30 percent) - and he would require GEMA to give him huge numbers (more than Ruto)

Oka is just Mudavadi for now. it is dead. Kalonzo will keep his umalaya going until April.