1) If he secures Kalonzo(OKA) crew - he add himself 1.3M votes - moves to 46 percent - that assumes 35 percent support in most GEMA (a stretch)
Percentage Total votes
William Ruto 53 8,577,693
Raila Odinga 39 6,299,301
Kalonzo Musyoka+GM 8 1,309,663
Turn out 77
2)Ruto would be at 53 percent - with a million more votes.
3) Where would Raila get a million extra votes? Remember Western - I have put Raila at 80 percent in Vihiga, 35 percent in Vihiga & Bungoma and 45 percent in Kakamega - with Ruto edging him in Kakamega by whisker (55 percent) - winning both Vihiga and Bungoma by 65 percent.
Coast+NEP - I have Raila already at 70 percent in Kilifi, 65 in Mombasa, he loses Kwale to Ruto but get 35 percent, and pretty much NEP+Matusa they are playing 50-50 with Ruto & Raila sharing the spoils.
4) Raila already doing well in Gusii scoring 70 percent - way more than he did in 2017.
5) So where else will he get votes?
6) Conclusion - based on the data - Raila need to score 50 percent of GEMA to go neck to neck with Ruto.
This only scenario he wins!! Anything short of 50 percent in Mt kenya for Raila is not going to cut.
In Summary
1) Sign OKA
2) Win 50 percent of Mt Kenya
