Author Topic: 2022 Mass vote registration start tomorrow - Mini election  (Read 3698 times)

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: 2022 Mass vote registration start tomorrow - Mini election
« Reply #20 on: October 11, 2021, 02:33:33 PM »
Mt Kenya counties are going to be depressed - turn out and registrations. Their share of national vote will drop from 27-28 percent to 25 percent.

Offline Nowayhaha

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Re: 2022 Mass vote registration start tomorrow - Mini election
« Reply #21 on: October 11, 2021, 03:01:10 PM »

If iy continues like this, seems the election will be determined by 2017 voter registration.
As I have stated before Kenyan census is a hoax. Believe iy st your oen peril.
IEBC has registered 202,518 new voters out of a weekly target of 1.5mn in the last seven days in the ongoing mass registration.

Look like it slightly above 10 percent of the target. Maybe last minute turnout - but definitely 6 million look like a mountain. Maybe 2-3 million is feasible.

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-10-11-iebc-registers-200000-new-voters-out-of-a-weekly-target-of-15m/

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: 2022 Mass vote registration start tomorrow - Mini election
« Reply #22 on: October 11, 2021, 03:22:18 PM »
There is the last minute kenya rush - but I also feel many people are not excited about elections.  We need to compare 1st week data of 2017 - to see if this normal kenya way or not.

But I feel
1) NASA strongholds are yet to recover from Raila pulling out of repeat elections. They dont know if system will do everything or not.

2) Mt Kenya are depressed by current state of politics. Without their own strong candidate - or even strong DPORK - with Uhuru dissappointing second term - where he betrayed voters - people are wondering why they must vote - if handshake will happen. All the kumira kumira wembe ni ule ule thurakus...only for Raila to do handshake!!

3) Kalenjin and pastoralist group - are the ones that will gain small advantage this election circle. Ruto has generatd some excitement in that circle.

If iy continues like this, seems the election will be determined by 2017 voter registration.
As I have stated before Kenyan census is a hoax. Believe iy st your oen peril.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: 2022 Mass vote registration start tomorrow - Mini election
« Reply #23 on: October 11, 2021, 05:55:47 PM »
All the counties.

Offline Njuri Ncheke

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Re: 2022 Mass vote registration start tomorrow - Mini election
« Reply #24 on: October 11, 2021, 08:45:18 PM »
Yes RV Will record the highest. Mt kenya will also ahow up am sure UDA Will actively push for people to register

Offline Nowayhaha

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Re: 2022 Mass vote registration start tomorrow - Mini election
« Reply #25 on: October 11, 2021, 09:36:24 PM »

RV can you arange by sorting out the highest to the lowest in terms of Target.
All the counties.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: 2022 Mass vote registration start tomorrow - Mini election
« Reply #26 on: October 12, 2021, 12:55:32 PM »


My facebook friend has done it.

In 2017, Mt. Kenya as a region had a total of 5.3M votes and the voters turn-out was about 83% meaning that only about 4.4M voted.
The current registration is adding about 1.7M in the region but based on the current trends and low turn-out, its unlikely that the region will add anything beyond 400k.
That is to say that the region will have about 6M voters as of next year, but given mortality, out-migration and other demographic factors, the exact number might even be about 5.2M
Given the current apathy, political landscape among others, the region is likely not to a 55% voters turn-out in 2022. This would translate to about 3M votes.




RV can you arange by sorting out the highest to the lowest in terms of Target.
All the counties.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: 2022 Mass vote registration start tomorrow - Mini election
« Reply #27 on: October 13, 2021, 10:54:05 AM »
Again from facebook - look like voter apathy is real?

Voter registration apathy seems the order of the day nationally, but it is highest in Mt. Kenya Region. 
The current target for the registration is 6 Million new voters but by the end of Day 7, only 203,000 new voters had registered which is a bare 3.2% against a target of 25% for the first 7 days.
In 2017 during the mass registration of January/February, the first two weeks of the exercise had seen 54% of the potential new voters registered!
This is a huge difference and speaks volumes on the apathy in the country!!!!
Mt. Kenya Region which in the past has witnessed high turn-out during the registration exercise is currently lagging behind in the exercise.
As of Day 7, only 33,791 new voters had been listed against a target of 1.7Million with a % achievement of 1.9% which is the lowest nationally.
In simple terms, data indicates that that of the expected 405,000 new voters by the 7th day in Mt. Kenya; 371,000 did not register and this is 23.1% of the expected 25%
Compare this; in 2017 mass registration, by the 14th day, all Mt. Kenya Counties had reached the 30% target mark but in the current round and at day 7, the highest is Tharaka Nithi with only 3.1% registered although this is at Day 7.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: 2022 Mass vote registration start tomorrow - Mini election
« Reply #28 on: October 18, 2021, 07:17:55 PM »
Look like we have second week of data
Pastoralist+Kalenjin still leading.
Central+Nairobi low interest.

Voter registration apathy continue across the countries with only 491,968 new voters registered in the past 14 days against an expected target of 3.1M for the same period (2 weeks)
Nationally, the % achievement for Week 2 is 15% which is significantly low compared with previous achievements in such mass registration exercises
For instance, the mass registration of January/February 2017 had seen 1.5M new voters registered in a span of 14 days from a target of 2.9M and this translated to a % achievement of 54%
Regionally, the highest % achievement as of Week 2 is recorded in the Pastoralist Counties recording a 25% achievement, and this is followed by the Kalenjin Rift whose achievement rate is 21%
Mt. Kenya Region records the lowest % achievement nationally with an estimate of 10%, or, only 87,392 new voters have been registered from a target of 853,391 in Week 2 in the 10 counties
The registration apathy seems lowest in Mt. Kenya region which in 2017 during the same exercise had registered 451,847 in 14 days and this translated to an achievement rate of 70%
To further confirm the low apathy in Mt. Kenya, in 2017 during the first 14 days, the 451,847 new voters represented 30% of the new registered voters nationally; but in the current round of registration, the 87,392 new registered voters in Mt. Kenya only represents 17% of the national new registered voters.
In the table below, Seven of the bottom Ten Counties with the lowest achievement rate are in Mt. Kenya Region


Offline RV Pundit

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Re: 2022 Mass vote registration start tomorrow - Mini election
« Reply #29 on: October 18, 2021, 07:22:56 PM »
Overally there is serious drop in voter registration enthusiam?

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: 2022 Mass vote registration start tomorrow - Mini election
« Reply #30 on: October 25, 2021, 05:35:11 PM »
760K out of potential 4.5m - with last week to go.

Look like we will hit 1m - max 1.5m

Meaning we are talking about 21m votes - and turnout next year could be anything less than 70 percent.

We may have about same votes as 2017 - 15m - max 17m.

To score 50 percent - one requires 7.5m - 8.5m votes.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: 2022 Mass vote registration start tomorrow - Mini election
« Reply #31 on: November 04, 2021, 02:49:46 PM »
1.4M but we have a week extension by Eldoret court...Let see if we can hit 2m.


Offline Nowayhaha

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Re: 2022 Mass vote registration start tomorrow - Mini election
« Reply #32 on: November 04, 2021, 02:53:28 PM »

But IEBC have closed shop. Dont have money to pay clerks and rent out facilities

1.4M but we have a week extension by Eldoret court...Let see if we can hit 2m.


Offline RV Pundit

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Re: 2022 Mass vote registration start tomorrow - Mini election
« Reply #33 on: November 04, 2021, 02:59:03 PM »
I think chebukati said it's going on

But IEBC have closed shop. Dont have money to pay clerks and rent out facilities


Offline RV Pundit

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Re: 2022 Mass vote registration start tomorrow - Mini election
« Reply #34 on: November 04, 2021, 03:11:20 PM »
Eldoret court now allow IEBC to end it.

So maybe 1.5M new votes.

All signs of low turnout

Offline Nowayhaha

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Re: 2022 Mass vote registration start tomorrow - Mini election
« Reply #35 on: November 04, 2021, 03:25:33 PM »

For legal reasons. Technically its over .


I think chebukati said it's going on

But IEBC have closed shop. Dont have money to pay clerks and rent out facilities


Offline RV Pundit

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Re: 2022 Mass vote registration start tomorrow - Mini election
« Reply #36 on: November 04, 2021, 07:54:44 PM »
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Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: 2022 Mass vote registration start tomorrow - Mini election
« Reply #37 on: November 05, 2021, 04:33:10 AM »
This may be good for raila in Central. Young voters are the ones heavily supporting hustler movement. That my hunch. I have no data but what I am seeing ruto is very popular with those below 35 years.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: 2022 Mass vote registration start tomorrow - Mini election
« Reply #38 on: November 05, 2021, 09:04:07 AM »
Raila will only be good once he manages to re-unite NASA. Without NASA - any little gains in Mt Kenya will be useless.
For Ruto - the job is simple - find replacement for the few in GEMA and possibly Gusii who may not vote for him - and also for the low turnout. He needs to work on Matusa, Coast, NEP and Western...and try to defend as much as he can gusii Jubilee vote.

I think Mt kenya will have low turnout - that would knock off about 3-4 percent of their voting strength - Mt kenya last election effective voting power was 27-28 percent - next year it could be down to 24-25 percent.

This may be good for raila in Central. Young voters are the ones heavily supporting hustler movement. That my hunch. I have no data but what I am seeing ruto is very popular with those below 35 years.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: 2022 Mass vote registration start tomorrow - Mini election
« Reply #39 on: November 19, 2021, 12:20:29 PM »
Radio Africa poll

Raila 45.5%+
Ruto 28.5%+
Kalonzo 2.5%+
MaDVD 1.9%+
Gideon 0.9%
Others 20%  including undecided.

There is still lots of noise from all jokers....but Ruto is doing great. Without undecided he cross 50 percent


https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-11-19-raila-narrows-gap-with-ruto-new-poll/