2022 Mass vote registration start tomorrow - Mini election

[RV Pundit]

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[RV Pundit]

Going by 2017 - only about 62 percent new voters registered - out of the target. So assuming the same constant is maintain - out of 6M votes - we should assume about 4M new votes.

So we should expect about 23-24M votes by end of this exercises.

Going by 2017 - the least new voters came from western kenya - I am not sure if it disintress or the fact that out-migration to Nairobi/urban area is so high.


https://www.iebc.or.ke/uploads/resources/HaG0IkuoAS.pdf

[Nowayhaha]

Never Trust Census numbers. As long as the numbers are not backed by Birth Certificates or any form of identification then just know they are hogwash.
After 2010 Constituion and devolution , Counties fake the numbers because they are a factor in aquiring devolved funds.
 Like 2009 Census were heavily rigged in favour of Western Counties when it came to 2013 and 2017 elections people were no where to be seen.

[RV Pundit]

IEBC normally have the data for registered voters/births/Ids - but after supreme court rulling - they have decide to disclose the bare minimum - and reduce exposure from lawsuit.

Supreme court fingered them for provisional results transmission that was nice to have - for example.

But no hurry in africa - in two months - we will know how registration will look like.

Definitely urban areas of Nairobi Metro, Mombasa Metro, Nakuru and such is seeing large population increase.

Maybe in another two decade urban population will increase from 30 to 50 percent - and eventually in by 100 percent by 2100 when we will all be dead - and tribalism will have ended.

Never Trust Census numbers. As long as the numbers are not backed by Birth Certificates or any form of identification then just know they are hogwash.
After 2010 Constituion and devolution , Counties fake the numbers because they are a factor in aquiring devolved funds.
 Like 2009 Census were heavily rigged in favour of Western Counties when it came to 2013 and 2017 elections people were no where to be seen.

[Nowayhaha]

The results will be more or less than 2017 results.

IEBC normally have the data for registered voters/births/Ids - but after supreme court rulling - they have decide to disclose the bare minimum - and reduce exposure from lawsuit.

Supreme court fingered them for provisional results transmission that was nice to have - for example.

But no hurry in africa - in two months - we will know how registration will look like.

Definitely urban areas of Nairobi Metro, Mombasa Metro, Nakuru and such is seeing large population increase.

Maybe in another two decade urban population will increase from 30 to 50 percent - and eventually in by 100 percent by 2100 when we will all be dead - and tribalism will have ended.

Never Trust Census numbers. As long as the numbers are not backed by Birth Certificates or any form of identification then just know they are hogwash.
After 2010 Constituion and devolution , Counties fake the numbers because they are a factor in aquiring devolved funds.
 Like 2009 Census were heavily rigged in favour of Western Counties when it came to 2013 and 2017 elections people were no where to be seen.

[RV Pundit]

Mt kenya might not have the incentive to register like they did...

I will study to see if the enthusiam to register corralate with voter turnout.

That will give us glues on where action will be in 2022.


These small percentage are only important if Riala fortunes improve drastically to match Ruto.

The results will be more or less than 2017 results.

[Nowayhaha]

Hatuko mbali , In a few weeks time....

Mt kenya might not have the incentive to register like they did...

I will study to see if the enthusiam to register corralate with voter turnout.

That will give us glues on where action will be in 2022.


These small percentage are only important if Riala fortunes improve drastically to match Ruto.

The results will be more or less than 2017 results.

[RV Pundit]

[Nowayhaha]

Kizungu Mingi, All those census numbers are cooked with the target being devolved funds.
I have told you the results will be more or less 2017 results. Utajionea tu

[RV Pundit]

My friend even an idiot knows family planning has reduced births in Mt kenya while Somalis and the type are still popping 11 kids per woman.

Population is dynamic.

Maasai were once the largest tribe in Kenya....before the arrival of Mzungu.

1900 - kenya population was 1M - now it's 50M.

Kizungu Mingi, All those census numbers are cooked with the target being devolved funds.
I have told you the results will be more or less 2017 results. Utajionea tu

[Nowayhaha]

RV my point is very clear. I dont know where Mt Kenya is comming in here. Ofcourse you ve been on it for a while.
Can you answer me this question. During census were population of some areas overstated ? and what was the motivation ?

My friend even an idiot knows family planning has reduced births in Mt kenya while Somalis and the type are still popping 11 kids per woman.

Population is dynamic.

Maasai were once the largest tribe in Kenya....before the arrival of Mzungu.

1900 - kenya population was 1M - now it's 50M.

Kizungu Mingi, All those census numbers are cooked with the target being devolved funds.
I have told you the results will be more or less 2017 results. Utajionea tu

[RV Pundit]

Uhuru and Mwangi suppressed Somali figures and I suspect inflated Mt kenya numbers.
These things are obvious. There is a lot of data to reference
I have heard very low figures of Mt kenya registered kids to school - through NIMS - every kid need a birth certificate.
You have heard of stories of school closing and nurseries in mt kenya...while others are building more and more schools.

Dont expect Mt kenya to forever remain populous when your women are not popping more than 2 kids.

Mt kenya enjoyed a population boom in 1960s-1970s - that was time when an average kikuyu family had 10 kids.

Then by 1980s they started family planning.

Kalejin population boom started in 1970s -1980s.

Somali population boom started around 2000s.

I was aware of their 8 kids per women in 2004 when I worked for some NGO.

Everywhere you turn you're going to see a Somali it will be impossible to suppress their numbers.

Dont argue with data - this is just about women giving or not giving birth.

Europe/White use to be many times more than black - now black and whites are equal - about a billion each. Chinese,Indians and Asia are about 5B.

RV my point is very clear. I dont know where Mt Kenya is comming in here. Ofcourse you ve been on it for a while.
Can you answer me this question. During census were population of some areas overstated ? and what was the motivation ?

[Nowayhaha]

Once again RV , Im not talking about MT Kenya.
My point is very clear , Overstating population vs Devolution.

Uhuru and Mwangi suppressed Somali figures and I suspect inflated Mt kenya numbers.
These things are obvious. There is a lot of data to reference
I have heard very low figures of Mt kenya registered kids to school - through NIMS - every kid need a birth certificate.
You have heard of stories of school closing and nurseries.

Dont expect Mt kenya to forever remain populous when your women are not popping more than 2 kids.

Mt kenya enjoyed a population boom in 1960s-1970s.

RV my point is very clear. I dont know where Mt Kenya is comming in here. Ofcourse you ve been on it for a while.
Can you answer me this question. During census were population of some areas overstated ? and what was the motivation ?

[RV Pundit]

How when Uhuru passed a law to allow Mwangi of Herufi house to correct any numbers. This is after high court had enforced 2009 census.
2019 figures are rigged in your favour.
Just stop it. And go have bedminton if you think it's important to be more popolous.

For me you're in very very good place.

You're about to become very rich.

Political you may be weaken but like Indians have shown us - Money is everything

Once again RV , Im not talking about MT Kenya.
My point is very clear , Overstating population vs Devolution.

[Nowayhaha]

RV I repeat , Im not talking about Mt Kenya. Im talking about Census Vs Devolution. You are skirting around my question , Please answer it.

How when Uhuru passed a law to allow Mwangi of Herufi house to correct any numbers. This is after high court had enforced 2009 census.
2019 figures are rigged in your favour.
Just stop it. And go have bedminton if you think it's important to be more popolous.

For me you're in very very good place.

You're about to become very rich.

Political you may be weaken but like Indians have shown us - Money is everything

Once again RV , Im not talking about MT Kenya.
My point is very clear , Overstating population vs Devolution.

[RV Pundit]

Stop using your boss drugs. I see the boss himself is using it. Munajibeba mafala kweli.

RV I repeat , Im not talking about Mt Kenya. Im talking about Census Vs Devolution. You are skirting around my question , Please answer it.

[Nowayhaha]

Jibu swali ?

Stop using your boss drugs. I see the boss himself is using it. Munajibeba mafala kweli.

RV I repeat , Im not talking about Mt Kenya. Im talking about Census Vs Devolution. You are skirting around my question , Please answer it.

[RV Pundit]

Naona watu wetu wametokea - Ruto turnout come 2022 will be historic in kalenjin land.

[RV Pundit]

IEBC has registered 202,518 new voters out of a weekly target of 1.5mn in the last seven days in the ongoing mass registration.

Look like it slightly above 10 percent of the target. Maybe last minute turnout - but definitely 6 million look like a mountain. Maybe 2-3 million is feasible.

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-10-11-iebc-registers-200000-new-voters-out-of-a-weekly-target-of-15m/

[RV Pundit]

Like I predicted Kalenjin counties will see big registration and turnout as excitement of Ruto nicking it is at all time high. The Luos will also be hoping against hope for a miracle.