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Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Nefertiti on August 11, 2017, 03:53:33 AM

Title: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on August 11, 2017, 03:53:33 AM
There is overinvestment in technology industry which has crowded the field in recent years. If you see promising unicorns begin to flounder - see Snapchat - it's telling. Only those that divest using science - and into the emerging markets - will survive. They must solve real problems rather than just serve as a luxury - there is enough of those already.

This is why I think the likes of Tesla will survive - even as Windy sneers - they solve an actual problem facing humanity which is climate change. After cracking the technology they are now divesting into the lower class segment and heading for mass market that includes the emerging markets. I believe enough Chinese, Indians & Africans will afford the US$35K Teslas EVs - with the added bonus that they are, well, electric.

Facebook is investing heavy in Internet beaming drones... aiming for the mass market - and something that everyone needs - connectivity. They will soon wipe out telcos.

Tech bubble burst is nigh... long live tech!

Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on August 11, 2017, 05:15:21 AM
I have never sneered at Elon Musk.  I like what he does for the most part.  Except the Mars terraforming thing.  I understand he is ambitious.  But maybe he needs to terraform the planet terra itself and save it from global warming first, before he can dream of doing that on a planet that is 20 light minutes away.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: MOON Ki on August 11, 2017, 05:27:18 AM
I have never sneered at Elon Musk.  I like what he does for the most part.  Except the Mars terraforming thing.  I understand he is ambitious.  But maybe he needs to terraform the planet terra itself and save it from global warming first, before he can dream of doing that on a planet that is 20 light minutes away.

Mars is a great idea.   The far-thinking among us are already looking to the day when, with global warming and all that, Planet Earth will be too f**ked up a place. And Elon is our man.  By the way, it's not just Musk who has that sort of advanced thinking.   People are already buying and flipping land on the place.    Just looking at one "real estate agency", I note that their prices have already gone up, although still quite cheap at $29.95 per acre:

https://www.buymars.com/

(Title deed "recorded and registered in the International Association Of Human Planetary Exploration". Very official)

Here's another one offering "Planet Mars Standard, Planet Mars Premium, Planet Mars Deluxe, Planet Mars Super, Planet Mars 5 Acre Deed, 10 Acre Land On Planet Mars Deed":

http://www.lunarland.com/gift-packages/mars-land.html

Serious pioneer/entrepreneur stuff.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on August 11, 2017, 06:27:47 AM
I have never sneered at Elon Musk.  I like what he does for the most part.  Except the Mars terraforming thing.  I understand he is ambitious.  But maybe he needs to terraform the planet terra itself and save it from global warming first, before he can dream of doing that on a planet that is 20 light minutes away.

Musk’s space ventures are well reasoned and explained - he wants to save humanity. It's a sound mission if you give it a fair share of faith. Let me get you the link. Don't box him into the matrix-gaming friend zone.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on August 11, 2017, 06:36:33 AM
I have never sneered at Elon Musk.  I like what he does for the most part.  Except the Mars terraforming thing.  I understand he is ambitious.  But maybe he needs to terraform the planet terra itself and save it from global warming first, before he can dream of doing that on a planet that is 20 light minutes away.

Musk’s space ventures are well reasoned and explained - he wants to save humanity. It's a sound mission if you give it a fair share of faith. Let me get you the link. Don't box him into the matrix-gaming friend zone.

Voilà

http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9?IR=T (http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9?IR=T)

(http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/57ea82c9077dcc3d018b85f6-1190-625/heres-elon-musks-complete-sweeping-vision-on-colonizing-mars-to-save-humanity.jpg)
Here's Elon Musk's complete, sweeping vision on colonizing Mars to save humanity
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on August 11, 2017, 06:44:23 AM
MOON Ki - I trust those are not Zamunda or Ukrainian companies - is that sarcasm I smell? If they only deal in bitcoins don't pay  :)
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Globalcitizen12 on August 11, 2017, 07:59:47 AM
Ooh Jesus here Elon mskamasi again
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: MOON Ki on August 12, 2017, 12:00:37 AM
MOON Ki - I trust those are not Zamunda or Ukrainian companies - is that sarcasm I smell? If they only deal in bitcoins don't pay  :)

This is a genuine American company that has been in business for quite some time.   Click on the "As Seen On TV" link, and note how and where they have been seen on TV.   Payment is by legitimate credit card.

By the way, not all buyers actually intend to, or even think, they will get to Mars.   Quite a few are smartly thinking about mineral rights and the day---quite soon---when robots will be sent there to mine all sorts of riches.  Think about it: $X millions from just $29.95 (postage-and-handling of title deed included).
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: veritas on August 12, 2017, 07:29:23 AM
Dear Robina

Have you ever been inside a Tesla car? I have about a week ago (see my snap below). This thing is gonna blow up like an iphone. Safety hazards galore. So amateur. Trashy. Cheap looking. FAR from engineering ingenuity. It felt awfully weak and how often does your phone go dead from forgetting to recharge compared to your car running out of petrol to the point you can't drive?

Any new gadget entails an investment in the correct infrastructure.

Unicorns dream and sell after peaking because that's all they do... make money. Then they sell, make up more new lies, peak, sell.

It takes experience and homegrown passion to sustain a global solution. It's believable when Hyundai says hey we're gonna mass produce electric cars because we've done the tests and know it's safe and sustainable. The fact these industry experts aren't doing that- says a lot. The likes of Hyundai have built infrastructure eg. Saudi Arabi, to know current infrastructure including safety and energy production rates aren't enough to keep people safe in electric cars.

That's all Elon Musk types and his ilks are- concept bubbles.

Now I'm not saying oneday we won't be on Mars. I'm saying these things develop organically. It just doesn't happen overnight.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: veritas on August 12, 2017, 07:39:42 AM
They cherry pick on figments, flaunt concepts, make money, forget about it, then twinkle about the next new cherry. On goes the marketing cycle. There are no roots or commitment to what they flaunt. Case in point when committing to a life partner. ..

This just doesn't happen...

(https://www.mtlblog.com/uploads/294572_829ad51f34cdc47cf41b80845fb2df2dc79d1d71.png)

This does happen ....

(https://blog.compassion.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/schools-in-kenya-evans-and-family.jpg)

The latter is a life's commitment and is sustainable because it's a continuation of humanity.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: veritas on August 12, 2017, 07:41:35 AM
MOON Ki - I trust those are not Zamunda or Ukrainian companies - is that sarcasm I smell? If they only deal in bitcoins don't pay  :)

This is a genuine American company that has been in business for quite some time.   Click on the "As Seen On TV" link, and note how and where they have been seen on TV.   Payment is by legitimate credit card.

By the way, not all buyers actually intend to, or even think, they will get to Mars.   Quite a few are smartly thinking about mineral rights and the day---quite soon---when robots will be sent there to mine all sorts of riches.  Think about it: $X millions from just $29.95 (postage-and-handling of title deed included).

The fact that you even uttered "this is a genuine American company" says a lot.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on August 12, 2017, 10:30:20 AM
veri - the top dude is cuter  :) yes my pal owns a Roadster.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: veritas on August 12, 2017, 10:59:51 AM
veri - the top dude is cuter  :) yes my pal owns a Roadster.

That's probably why you're salivating over an iTesla. your pal sounds like my type though.

Top dude cuter ? I guess you were..

(http://img.freepik.com/free-vector/unicorn-background-design_1324-78.jpg?size=338&ext=jpg)

You can tell a lot about a chica from their man preference.

I'm a bit of a unicorn too but of this variation:

(https://image.freepik.com/free-vector/unicorn-background-design_1324-79.jpg)

I keep it in my pants and dreams.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Georgesoros on August 12, 2017, 02:55:31 PM
Robina
in my opinion Tesla will sky rocket once the price si right
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on August 12, 2017, 03:11:26 PM
MOON Ki - I trust those are not Zamunda or Ukrainian companies - is that sarcasm I smell? If they only deal in bitcoins don't pay  :)

This is a genuine American company that has been in business for quite some time.   Click on the "As Seen On TV" link, and note how and where they have been seen on TV.   Payment is by legitimate credit card.

By the way, not all buyers actually intend to, or even think, they will get to Mars.   Quite a few are smartly thinking about mineral rights and the day---quite soon---when robots will be sent there to mine all sorts of riches.  Think about it: $X millions from just $29.95 (postage-and-handling of title deed included).

I could see that possibility for asteroids.  Planets are terrible candidates for extraction unless you stay there.  The cost of getting the stuff out will outweigh its worth.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on August 12, 2017, 03:15:37 PM
veri - the top dude is cuter  :) yes my pal owns a Roadster.

Why?  Because he has fewer Negroid features?
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Omollo on August 12, 2017, 03:26:28 PM
This is a wonderful idea.

If only he could make crafts big enough to lift whole tribes and their cows, it could solve the current problem in Kenya.

Imagine if all the Luos, Luhyas, Miji Kenda, Somalis (42 out of 44) left for a section of Mars, every Land grabber would have like a whole county to himself.

I can see Uhuru extending his family holdings in Kwale and the whole idea of rigging Mvurya in (54% vs 44%) so he can sign off more mineral rich land to some "offshore company" would be unhelpful to the cause.

The opposite is also true. If some people who cannot live with others because they cannot stand the idea of "being ruled", could be encouraged to move to a new planet with unlimited land; where the sand is Gold and god, perhaps we can solve this problem.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on August 12, 2017, 05:54:51 PM
veri - the top dude is cuter  :) yes my pal owns a Roadster.

Why?  Because he has fewer Negroid features?

F* off
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on August 12, 2017, 06:23:28 PM
Omollo honestly this is apolitical - there are multiple gains to be had - especially resource-wise. It is a fact that the earth is increasingly resource-depleted and in need for a supplement. Political or social disaffection is not a reason to leave the planet - just the country.

An individual planning to move 1M people to Mars... to create a civilization - now that is something to behold. The one promising a trip to Canaan - biblical :D - not so much.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: veritas on August 12, 2017, 07:07:23 PM
Omollo lol.

There are thousands of uninhabited island on this glorious planet called Earth.

If these wackos were that serious about Mars, you'd think they'd try to inhabit antarctica first. Mars for the most part is colder than Antarctica.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: vooke on August 12, 2017, 07:10:29 PM
I think the problem with tech companies is not 'over investment' but rather voodoo valuations that conjure astronomical values for financially stillborn or dying entities.

Basic finance/economics/accounting tells me that cash flow is key. A company that is bleeding cash won't live long.

How Sillicon works is, come up with an idea, hype it, incorporate, hype it even further before offloading shares vide private placement to venture capitals. Start ups are allowed to bleed, make losses as they get their footing, during this time, necessary cash comes from the investors. If they succeed this period, they go public and transfer the monkey to the public.

A good example is Uber.
It's model is not viable and its value proposition is so easily replicable that you wonder what they were smoking before assigning it such voodoo valuation. It's got lots of cash, about $9B and is burning about $2B per year. So it can run for another three years before going back to the investors for more.

What about the established techs like say Google of Facebook? These have no cash flow problems, but their model is challenged. Charging advertisers billions for bots clicking on an ad is not delivering value to them. So digital advertising is shrinking.

And so on...but overvaluation is IT. That's what ate Snapchat,is eating twirra, and I have no doubt is eating Telsa. There is no way in God's wretched world Tessa can be valued more than GM given their respective annual sales
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/04/11/tesla-gm-comparison-market-share-income-valuation/


Here's a 7 part series on Uber
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/11/can-uber-ever-deliver-part-one-understanding-ubers-bleak-operating-economics.html
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on August 12, 2017, 08:27:53 PM
Omollo lol.

There are thousands of uninhabited island on this glorious planet called Earth.

If these wackos were that serious about Mars, you'd think they'd try to inhabit antarctica first. Mars for the most part is colder than Antarctica.

Obviously they need some hullabaloo for the marketing. But I believe antarctica, Greenland, etc are off the mark for climatic reason - as in inhabiting them would further tip the ecological balance causing melting glaciers. Apparently we have enough carbon & green gas in the atmosphere so antarctica must be left alone.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: MOON Ki on August 12, 2017, 08:53:33 PM
Omollo lol.

There are thousands of uninhabited island on this glorious planet called Earth.

If these wackos were that serious about Mars, you'd think they'd try to inhabit antarctica first. Mars for the most part is colder than Antarctica.

Going to another part of the world will not help.   We already have people messing up their countries and then doing everything possible to move to better places.

What's more, you don't take into account that eventually the whole planet will be messed up.   Where are you going to put your igloo after the Antarctica has melted into a large pool of water?

The only long-term solution for good people is to move as far away as possible from the bad lot that is causing ruin.  That is where Elon Musk comes in.  The only other option is the "Australian" one  of packing off the bad people to another planet, but I can't imagine how it would be done.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on August 12, 2017, 08:54:56 PM
veri - what do you think of Bitcoin? -is it a good investment? It's 3800$ per bitcoin right now.

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/11/20131128_goldbtc_0.png)


(http://m.eet.com/media/1202046/bicoin_price_chart_fig.jpg)
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on August 12, 2017, 08:57:34 PM
I think the problem with tech companies is not 'over investment' but rather voodoo valuations that conjure astronomical values for financially stillborn or dying entities.

Basic finance/economics/accounting tells me that cash flow is key. A company that is bleeding cash won't live long.

How Sillicon works is, come up with an idea, hype it, incorporate, hype it even further before offloading shares vide private placement to venture capitals. Start ups are allowed to bleed, make losses as they get their footing, during this time, necessary cash comes from the investors. If they succeed this period, they go public and transfer the monkey to the public.

A good example is Uber.
It's model is not viable and its value proposition is so easily replicable that you wonder what they were smoking before assigning it such voodoo valuation. It's got lots of cash, about $9B and is burning about $2B per year. So it can run for another three years before going back to the investors for more.

What about the established techs like say Google of Facebook? These have no cash flow problems, but their model is challenged. Charging advertisers billions for bots clicking on an ad is not delivering value to them. So digital advertising is shrinking.

And so on...but overvaluation is IT. That's what ate Snapchat,is eating twirra, and I have no doubt is eating Telsa. There is no way in God's wretched world Tessa can be valued more than GM given their respective annual sales
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/04/11/tesla-gm-comparison-market-share-income-valuation/


Here's a 7 part series on Uber
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/11/can-uber-ever-deliver-part-one-understanding-ubers-bleak-operating-economics.html

I agree most are over-valued yes - like Snapchat. The big ones like Facebook are divesting really fast while they can into media, drones, etc - so as not to sink.

Tesla is not valued over GM & Daimler for flimsy reasons. Wall Street analysts are quite experienced and a good lot (50%+) will tell you the future potential of Tesla is superb. It is likely to snatch a huge chunk of the global auto market - so GM and others suffer value stagnation for this. Tesla's biggest weakness is overdependence on Elon Musk - it's his "iron man" abilities on which the magical growth is pegged. If he gets a flu the stock slides.

Uber - it is not overvalued at $60B. The model is not easy to replicate. Its strength is not technology but market dominance - due the current fragmented nature of the taxi business worldwide - Uber's strategy is to zoom in like a hawk and lock the entire market by low rates and buy-outs. It succeeded until it came face-to-face with unions and local laws in some places like Italy and I think Mexico. Of course competition has popped up - like Lyft & Didi - but there will be a few global behemoths in the end - and the cash-bleeding will stop.

Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: MOON Ki on August 12, 2017, 09:10:55 PM
I could see that possibility for asteroids.  Planets are terrible candidates for extraction unless you stay there.  The cost of getting the stuff out will outweigh its worth.

Asteroids themselves could be mined, but their high-speed movement etc. likely to cause problems.  They could however be used to address what you claim will be high transportation costs.    Something like this: Once your stuff has been mined on Mars, the robots use a rocket to "upload it" (and another rocket) onto a passing asteroid headed near earth.     When the asteroid gets close enough, the second rocket fires to  "download" the package from the asteroid, and, with the help of GPS, drop it into your backyard or some other suitable place.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Omollo on August 12, 2017, 09:23:39 PM
I was just exploring some of those gains.

Omollo honestly this is apolitical - there are multiple gains to be had - especially resource-wise. It is a fact that the earth is increasingly resource-depleted and in need for a supplement. Political or social disaffection is not a reason to leave the planet - just the country.

An individual planning to move 1M people to Mars... to create a civilization - now that is something to behold. The one promising a trip to Canaan - biblical :D - not so much.

Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Omollo on August 12, 2017, 09:28:49 PM
I think the Australian Option has been given a bad name for short term reasons. Look at how it has turned out?

The only problem is with the courts as they are not many "qualified" persons would travel.

Going to another part of the world will not help.   We already have people messing up their countries and then doing everything possible to move to better places.

What's more, you don't take into account that eventually the whole planet will be messed up.   Where are you going to put your igloo after the Antarctica has melted into a large pool of water?

The only long-term solution for good people is to move as far away as possible from the bad lot that is causing ruin.  That is where Elon Musk comes in.  The only other option is the "Australian" one  of packing off the bad people to another planet, but I can't imagine how it would be done.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on August 12, 2017, 09:37:28 PM
I could see that possibility for asteroids.  Planets are terrible candidates for extraction unless you stay there.  The cost of getting the stuff out will outweigh its worth.

Asteroids themselves could be mined, but their high-speed movement etc. likely to cause problems.  They could however be used to address what you claim will be high transportation costs.    Something like this: Once your stuff has been mined on Mars, the robots use a rocket to "upload it" (and another rocket) onto a passing asteroid headed near earth.     When the asteroid gets close enough, the second rocket fires to  "download" the package from the asteroid, and, with the help of GPS, drop it into your backyard or some other suitable place.

:) This stuff is all a joke to you isn't it?
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: MOON Ki on August 12, 2017, 10:11:49 PM
:) This stuff is all a joke to you isn't it?

Back in 1865 Jules Verne came up with an idea of sending a man to the moon.    He wrote about it in a book entitled "From the Earth to the Moon".  The basic idea was that a man would be put into a capsule that would get stuffed down the barrel of a really long gun; a large load of explosive would then be ignited to send the Hero on his way.    Verne looked into the technology and did all sorts of calculations.  Even determined that Florida (now home of the Kennedy Space Centre) would be the right place for the "launch".   Great book.  People consider it all a great joke, fantastic entertainment, and in 1902 a movie was even made of it--Le Voyage dans la Lune (A Trip to the Moon)---that was a huge entertainment success.

Later on, some Russian guy---one Konstantin Tsiolkovsky---looked into the matter and determined that the barrel of the gun would be too long to be practical.  But he had another idea, based on what he was studying at the time---rockets---and he wrote a bunch of papers entitled "Exploration of Outer Space by Means of Rocket Devices".   

<fast forward><fast forward>

Apollo 11 Commander, Neil Armstrong:

Quote
“A hundred years ago, Jules Verne wrote a book about a voyage to the Moon. His spaceship, Columbia, took off from Florida and landed in the Pacific Ocean after completing a trip to the Moon. It seems appropriate to us to share with you some of the reflections of the crew as the modern-day Columbia completes its rendezvous with the planet Earth and the same Pacific Ocean tomorrow."

Some joke.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: MOON Ki on August 12, 2017, 10:13:04 PM
I think the Australian Option has been given a bad name for short term reasons. Look at how it has turned out?

Considering that the place is full of Australians, I'd say it turned out rather badly.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on August 12, 2017, 10:14:30 PM
I could see that possibility for asteroids.  Planets are terrible candidates for extraction unless you stay there.  The cost of getting the stuff out will outweigh its worth.

Asteroids themselves could be mined, but their high-speed movement etc. likely to cause problems.  They could however be used to address what you claim will be high transportation costs.    Something like this: Once your stuff has been mined on Mars, the robots use a rocket to "upload it" (and another rocket) onto a passing asteroid headed near earth.     When the asteroid gets close enough, the second rocket fires to  "download" the package from the asteroid, and, with the help of GPS, drop it into your backyard or some other suitable place.

 :) This stuff is all a joke to you isn't it?


He is talking about a Mars cycler.  One made out of an asteroid.  I have heard of terrariums made out of asteroids, but a cycler is new.  It does address the costs of moving stuff between celestial bodies though.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on August 12, 2017, 10:48:28 PM
I could see that possibility for asteroids.  Planets are terrible candidates for extraction unless you stay there.  The cost of getting the stuff out will outweigh its worth.

Asteroids themselves could be mined, but their high-speed movement etc. likely to cause problems.  They could however be used to address what you claim will be high transportation costs.    Something like this: Once your stuff has been mined on Mars, the robots use a rocket to "upload it" (and another rocket) onto a passing asteroid headed near earth.     When the asteroid gets close enough, the second rocket fires to  "download" the package from the asteroid, and, with the help of GPS, drop it into your backyard or some other suitable place.

 :) This stuff is all a joke to you isn't it?


He is talking about a Mars cycler.  One made out of an asteroid.  I have heard of terrariums made out of asteroids, but a cycler is new.  It does address the costs of moving stuff between celestial bodies though.

He makes it seem that asteroid motion is manageable - is it? Perhaps he means an artificial asteroid? - which is a rocket.

Musk's vision is a complete "interplanetary transport system" - the moon and Mars are just starting points. We shall be hopping between various planets or bodies as we do now between the continents. I see no reason to exclude celestial bodies - which is what planets are, just huger.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on August 12, 2017, 11:04:45 PM
Asteroids themselves could be mined, but their high-speed movement etc. likely to cause problems.  They could however be used to address what you claim will be high transportation costs.    Something like this: Once your stuff has been mined on Mars, the robots use a rocket to "upload it" (and another rocket) onto a passing asteroid headed near earth.     When the asteroid gets close enough, the second rocket fires to  "download" the package from the asteroid, and, with the help of GPS, drop it into your backyard or some other suitable place.

 :) This stuff is all a joke to you isn't it?


He is talking about a Mars cycler.  One made out of an asteroid.  I have heard of terrariums made out of asteroids, but a cycler is new.  It does address the costs of moving stuff between celestial bodies though.

He makes it seem that asteroid motion is manageable - is it? Perhaps he means an artificial asteroid? - which is a rocket.

Musk's vision is a complete "interplanetary transport system" - the moon and Mars are just starting points. We shall be hopping between various planets or bodies as we do now between the continents. I see no reason to exclude celestial bodies - which is what planets are, just huger.


In theory it is, if you apply enough energy.  The cycler concept, in general, is more akin to an airport tram but it is interplanetary and relies on orbital mechanics.  So you have a body in "permanent" motion between Mars and earth, or earth and the moon.  When it arrives at one planet, passengers can board it using a short trip on a rocket launched to coincide with the rendezvous and ride it back to the other planet.

So that concept would actually make Elon's ideas more feasible.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on August 12, 2017, 11:35:12 PM
Asteroids themselves could be mined, but their high-speed movement etc. likely to cause problems.  They could however be used to address what you claim will be high transportation costs.    Something like this: Once your stuff has been mined on Mars, the robots use a rocket to "upload it" (and another rocket) onto a passing asteroid headed near earth.     When the asteroid gets close enough, the second rocket fires to  "download" the package from the asteroid, and, with the help of GPS, drop it into your backyard or some other suitable place.

 :) This stuff is all a joke to you isn't it?


He is talking about a Mars cycler.  One made out of an asteroid.  I have heard of terrariums made out of asteroids, but a cycler is new.  It does address the costs of moving stuff between celestial bodies though.

He makes it seem that asteroid motion is manageable - is it? Perhaps he means an artificial asteroid? - which is a rocket.

Musk's vision is a complete "interplanetary transport system" - the moon and Mars are just starting points. We shall be hopping between various planets or bodies as we do now between the continents. I see no reason to exclude celestial bodies - which is what planets are, just huger.


In theory it is, if you apply enough energy.  The cycler concept, in general, is more akin to an airport tram but it is interplanetary and relies on orbital mechanics.  So you have a body in "permanent" motion between Mars and earth, or earth and the moon.  When it arrives at one planet, passengers can board it using a short trip on a rocket launched to coincide with the rendezvous and ride it back to the other planet.

So that concept would actually make Elon's ideas more feasible.

If it were I doubt Elon would have missed it. He is minimalist and reuses rockets. Indeed his spaceships are being designed to work just as you describe - except they are, well, spaceships. They will pry space and "dock" in orbit waiting for rockets to ferry travelers & cargoes to and from spaceports on Earth, Mars, Europa, etc.

You made note of the inhabitability of Mars recently... that is well known to Elon. The most difficult part of the Mars program is setting up habitat there - but it does not appear as hostile as you make it seem. He reckons setting up cities will do the trick - food, housing, medicine, etc - i.e. creating a basic human life system. Air does not seem to be one of the problems to be solved. Just move a million diverse folks and voila - the first Martians!

Cycler asteroid... cracking this does not sound easy at all. Terrariums must be just implants / installations - that are self-contained and just expected to survive as experiments.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: MOON Ki on August 12, 2017, 11:47:22 PM
If it were I doubt Elon would have missed it.

People can miss all sort of things, even if they have really big brains.   Or they might just decide to ignore certain things, because they think they have better ideas.  A better counter to Terminator's comment would be  an argument as to why they would not make Elon's ideas more feasible.   

Quote
Cycler asteroid... cracking this does not sound easy at all.

None of it is easy.   Not even those ideas of Elon's that you have accepted.   But "hard" is not "impossible".   
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: MOON Ki on August 13, 2017, 12:15:34 AM
Wall Street analysts are quite experienced ...

Those are the guys who mostly missed Madoff (one of their own), gave us Theranos, etc.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on August 13, 2017, 12:18:31 AM
If it were I doubt Elon would have missed it.

People can miss all sort of things, even if they have really big brains.   Or they might just decide to ignore certain things, because they think they have better ideas.  A better counter to Terminator's comment would be  an argument as to why they would not make Elon's ideas more feasible.   

Quote
Cycler asteroid... cracking this does not sound easy at all.

None of it is easy.   Not even those ideas of Elon's that you have accepted.   But "hard" is not "impossible".   

What is a cycler asteroid?
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: MOON Ki on August 13, 2017, 03:04:35 AM
What is a cycler asteroid?

I have no idea; that was your term.   My comment on "ease" was in relation to what I am proposing.  On that I can shed more light.  I have also noted your

Quote
He makes it seem that asteroid motion is manageable - is it? Perhaps he means an artificial asteroid? - which is a rocket.

What I have in mind is something like this:

There are asteroids whose orbits sometimes bring them close to Earth, but they  don't also go close to Mars; so they wouldn't be of much use in Earth-Mars transportation.   And the same goes for asteroids near Mars.    But we could pick one of these asteroids and force it into an elliptical orbit that at one time gets it very close to Earth and another time very close to Mars.  People or their goods could then be uploaded or downloaded as appropriate.  With enough such asteroids, one would have the equivalent of No. 12 buses or women of easy virtue: "if one goes by you, don't get worked up; just wait for a few minutes, and another one will be available shortly".

Getting an asteroid into such a position is obviously not especially easy, but only in principle: It is basically a matter of taking into account the very large number of bodies and gravitational forces between Earth and Mars and then appropriately positioning the asteroid.    The former is, essentially,  just a matter of really massive number crunching, for which a quantum computer will be very handy; and the latter is, essentially,  just a matter of firing a whole bunch of rockets.  One could even adjust for speed; indeed, my response to Terminator's "mining" suggestion reflects my belief that the speeds required for efficient transportation would exclude the "leisurely" activity of mining.

So, the real, fundamental question is this: how does one get some object---be it a small rock or a whole planet---into an orbit of one's choosing?    Plenty of good people have been working on that sort of thing, and the preliminary results look promising ... just a lot of maths and a large bunch of rockets.   For example, as a matter of intuition, there are two obvious solutions to "global warming", if the species Homo Sapiens will not accept responsibility and do the right thing: (a) cool the sun, or (b) move Earth into a farther-out orbit.    The former is really, really difficult.  The latter is being tackled, but I think any "sun-side" solution, such as just moving the planet is a fundamentally bad idea: one will still be stuck with the very people who f**ked up things in the first place and who could well just keep going with their bad behavior.   Anyways, ...  the basic idea does have some merits that are very relevant for the bigger-and-better things that we propose.  Here is a short, "layman's" report:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2001/jun/10/globalwarming.climatechange

and here is an academic paper (as "seen from the sun's side", but to the same effect):

Quote
In this paper, we have investigated the feasibility of gradually moving the Earth to a larger orbital radius in order to escape from the increasing radiative ?ux from the Sun. Our initial analysis shows that the general problem of long-term planetary engineering is almost alarmingly feasible using technologies that are currently under serious discussion. The eventual implementation of such a program, which is moderately beyond current technical capabilities, would profoundly extend the time over which our biosphere remains viable.
https://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0102126
(Note that the key is in forcing an asteroid into a specific orbit.)

NASA has some asteroid-tinkering projects in relation to Mars, but their scope appears to be rather modest ... perhaps the constraints of the Civil Service?  You can read about them on NASA's websites.  E.g.

Quote
NASA is developing a first-ever robotic mission to visit a large near-Earth asteroid, collect a multi-ton boulder from its surface, and redirect it into a stable orbit around the moon ... This Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM) is part of NASA’s plan to advance the new technologies and spaceflight experience needed for a human mission to the Martian system in the 2030s.
...
https://www.nasa.gov/content/what-is-nasa-s-asteroid-redirect-mission
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on August 13, 2017, 04:25:47 AM
ARM is a great alternative to spaceships - am not sure about "less costly" but the timelines are quite behind SpaceX's calendar. The thing with ARM I don't grasp is the existence of appropriate orbits - the ones running Earth-to-Mars or Mars-Jubiter - I get there are "stray" asteroids that near-collide with Earth now and then but are they stable and permanent? This is besides the small matter of successfully knocking asteroids into this orbit(s).

Developing from this asteroid positioning to positioning the Earth... nothing is beyond science, just a matter of time. By the way none of these solutions - a)moving to Mars via ARM or spacecrafts or b)shifting Earth to a further orbit from the burning sun - none of them solves the issue of the green-gas emitting folks you despise, do they? The global warmers. For the Mars solution they are likely to be early Martians owing to their deep pockets  :) The space enterprise is likely to go premium before getting round to the hoi polloi... and the early birds will have set up "industries" there to support the incoming masses :D - the tail and the dog.

Mining - this also entirely viable once the infrastructure is established. Say once we have a city up there - and the interplanetary fleets of spaceships become operational. A lot of stuff will be moved back and forth among the planets. ARM/cyclers and spaceships will be like the air and sea transport options for space travel. Other options will well emerge in the interplanetary system.

Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on August 13, 2017, 04:36:09 AM
I could see that possibility for asteroids.  Planets are terrible candidates for extraction unless you stay there.  The cost of getting the stuff out will outweigh its worth.

Asteroids themselves could be mined, but their high-speed movement etc. likely to cause problems.  They could however be used to address what you claim will be high transportation costs.    Something like this: Once your stuff has been mined on Mars, the robots use a rocket to "upload it" (and another rocket) onto a passing asteroid headed near earth.     When the asteroid gets close enough, the second rocket fires to  "download" the package from the asteroid, and, with the help of GPS, drop it into your backyard or some other suitable place.

Rockets are maturing pretty fast. They still launch like IPBMs - but can get back to the launchpad after delivery - to be reused. I imagine soon it may be possible to safely land in places other than sea-based pads - and even deliver cargoes to various addresses.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: veritas on August 13, 2017, 04:39:14 AM
veri - what do you think of Bitcoin? -is it a good investment? It's 3800$ per bitcoin right now.

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/11/20131128_goldbtc_0.png)


(http://m.eet.com/media/1202046/bicoin_price_chart_fig.jpg)


I wouldn't put all my eggs in one basket, I mean gold will always be safe for the next few decades, but yeah definitely worth a pocket change investment on bitcoins. I think something like bitcoins will supersede gold in maybe 50 years.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: veritas on August 13, 2017, 04:40:57 AM
I think the problem with tech companies is not 'over investment' but rather voodoo valuations that conjure astronomical values for financially stillborn or dying entities.

Basic finance/economics/accounting tells me that cash flow is key. A company that is bleeding cash won't live long.

How Sillicon works is, come up with an idea, hype it, incorporate, hype it even further before offloading shares vide private placement to venture capitals. Start ups are allowed to bleed, make losses as they get their footing, during this time, necessary cash comes from the investors. If they succeed this period, they go public and transfer the monkey to the public.

A good example is Uber.
It's model is not viable and its value proposition is so easily replicable that you wonder what they were smoking before assigning it such voodoo valuation. It's got lots of cash, about $9B and is burning about $2B per year. So it can run for another three years before going back to the investors for more.

What about the established techs like say Google of Facebook? These have no cash flow problems, but their model is challenged. Charging advertisers billions for bots clicking on an ad is not delivering value to them. So digital advertising is shrinking.

And so on...but overvaluation is IT. That's what ate Snapchat,is eating twirra, and I have no doubt is eating Telsa. There is no way in God's wretched world Tessa can be valued more than GM given their respective annual sales
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/04/11/tesla-gm-comparison-market-share-income-valuation/


Here's a 7 part series on Uber
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/11/can-uber-ever-deliver-part-one-understanding-ubers-bleak-operating-economics.html


Wow, agreed.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: veritas on August 13, 2017, 04:55:06 AM
I could see that possibility for asteroids.  Planets are terrible candidates for extraction unless you stay there.  The cost of getting the stuff out will outweigh its worth.

Asteroids themselves could be mined, but their high-speed movement etc. likely to cause problems.  They could however be used to address what you claim will be high transportation costs.    Something like this: Once your stuff has been mined on Mars, the robots use a rocket to "upload it" (and another rocket) onto a passing asteroid headed near earth.     When the asteroid gets close enough, the second rocket fires to  "download" the package from the asteroid, and, with the help of GPS, drop it into your backyard or some other suitable place.

:) This stuff is all a joke to you isn't it?


The asteroid thing is already being done: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining I learnt this in my political studies back like 10 years ago.

There are currently asteroids passing Earth and some detonated in space before reaching Earth. The mineral content on asteroids are similar to Earth which leads some scientists to believe Earth was hit by an asteroid hence how life began. It would be easier to capture an asteroid and make it's trajectory orbit Earth and to populate it.

There was an investor who wanted to mine asteroids. .. can't remember his name but here are some articles:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/06/goldman-sachs-tells-investors-to-consider-new-space-age.html

Quote
A new space age is emerging, and the so-called space economy will become a multitrillion-dollar industry within the next two decades, Goldman Sachs is telling its clients.

More than 50 venture capital firms invested in space in 2015, driving more VC dollars into the sector in that year alone than in the prior 15 years combined, analyst Noah Poponak wrote in a Tuesday note to investors. Those firms included SoftBank, Fidelity, Bessemer and the VC arm of Alphabet's Google, among others.

"While relatively small markets today, rapidly falling costs are lowering the barrier to participate in the space economy, making new industries like space tourism, asteroid mining and on-orbit manufacturing viable," Poponak said.

Since 2000, more than $13 billion has been poured into space-related start-ups and established companies, Goldman's research shows. Key players receiving funds are broken down into satellite manufacturers, like Boeing; launch providers, like Lockheed Martin; and operators, such as AT&T or Dish Network.

Asteroids could be the new equities

But investors are starting to look past the well-established industries within space, such as development of satellites and launchers, and into less-established ventures like space mining and tourism, Goldman wrote.

"We believe space mining is still a long way from commercial viability, but it has the potential to further ease access to space and facilitate an in-space manufacturing economy," Poponak said.

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/theres-big-money-made-asteroid-mining/

(http://2oqz471sa19h3vbwa53m33yj.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/asteroid-value.jpg)

The project timeline for an asteroid mining mission is at least 10 years, but the right time for investing in space resources is now.
There are numerous space resources companies that are developing the technology and skills required for what can easily be described as the most complex resource operations in history with the highest possible payoff. Most visitors to this website already understand the ramifications of viewing the Moon as an 8th continent to exploit, and asteroids as objects to mine or harvest. Aside from the complexity in the technology and processes required there is a straight forward process to getting started.

Space Resources is dedicated to researching and laying out a Road Map for Space Resources.

That includes investing in space resources companies that meet certain criteria, and understanding the emerging space commerce companies that will form part of the vital infrastructure of space resources operations.

http://spaceresources.eu/

(http://spaceresources.eu/space-resources-companies.png)

Luxembourg to Invest $227 Million in Asteroid Mining

On Friday, the tiny European nation of Luxembourg announced that it would open a 200 million Euro ($227M U.S.) fund to entice companies focused on mining asteroids to locate there. Luxembourg’s economy minister said that the fund’s budget could expand if needed, and that it is aimed at making the country, which is about the size of the Dallas metro area, a global leader in space.

http://fortune.com/2016/06/05/luxembourg-asteroid-mining/

etc.

Note, Luxembourg is the richest economy in the world.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: veritas on August 13, 2017, 05:07:32 AM
(http://cdn.nanalyze.com/uploads/2017/01/Asteroid-Mining-Asteroids.jpg)

http://www.nanalyze.com/2017/01/asteroid-mining-companies/

Founded in 2013, Houston-based startup Deep Space Industries (DSI) has taken in an undisclosed amount of funding to develop space technology for asteroid mining. The company is currently developing three spacecrafts and a microgravity manufacturing technology. In addition to mining precious metals, DSI also plans to gather the water found in asteroids and other hydrocarbons to extend humanity’s stay in space. In fact, the Company plans to have a refueling station within the Earth’s orbit to cut costs on inter-planetary travel.

DSI’s strategy for the hunt includes four phases starting off with prospecting for the best resources, then harvesting and processing these materials into usable supplies and manufacturing them into finished products using their own end-to-end technologies. One of the coolest things we saw on offer from DSI is their Comet-1 line of thrusters that use water as a propellant. As of Q3 2016, they had six units on order which they expect to deliver by Q3 of this year. Here’s a spec sheet in case you’re in the market for one of these:

(http://cdn.nanalyze.com/uploads/2017/01/Comet-1-Thruster.jpg)

(http://cdn.nanalyze.com/uploads/2017/01/DSI-Missions.jpg)

A firm in Houston (since NASA stuff is there) is more likely to succeed over some Mexican/Silicon Valley space shuttle quackery.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: MOON Ki on August 13, 2017, 05:25:33 AM
Veritas: Those orbits look really nice, but they won't help with regular transportation to and from Mars ... see where they are on a "map" that also includes Mars.  The other thing is that even if one is not interested in getting to and from Mars, and, say, simply wants to jump onto an asteroid, do a bit of space tourism, land back home ... then they take an awfully long time to get around.   I can't readily recall the asteroid, but a few years ago when I looked into the matter the best candidate I could find took something like three years to get back.   What's more, "near-earth" is not so near; regular transportation requires something a bit closer.   
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: veritas on August 13, 2017, 05:41:54 AM
Veritas: Those orbits look really nice, but they won't help with regular transportation to and from Mars ... see where they are on a "map" that also includes Mars.  The other thing is that even if one is not interested in getting to and from Mars, and, say, simply wants to jump onto an asteroid, do a bit of space tourism, land back home ... then they take an awfully long time to get around.   I can't readily recall the asteroid, but a few years ago when I looked into the matter the best candidate I could find took something like three years to get back.   What's more, "near-earth" is not so near; regular transportation requires something a bit closer.   

I don't care for Mars- the same way I don't think anyone wants to live in Antarctica. They have landed on asteroids before to find it was mineral rich unlike Mars and other planets.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_landings_on_extraterrestrial_bodies

I don't care for space tourism. I wouldn't even go if someone offered me a ticket to Mars or even just orbit around Earth. I don't even watch the Discovery Channel because it BORES me. Seeing it face to face will just make me resent it even more because I could be spending that time shopping or having sex.

I'm talking about solving problems here on Earth like resource scarcity. Fixing up pollution, cleaning the atmosphere, making everything sustainable etc. etc.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: MOON Ki on August 13, 2017, 06:05:15 AM
ARM is a great alternative to spaceships - am not sure about "less costly" but the timelines are quite behind SpaceX's calendar.

ARM as proposed by civil servants is not what I would go for, but one can learn from them.   Proper ARM will be less  costly.   Spaceships require fuel and maintenance and what not.   With proper ARM, the only real cost will be in getting the fuel-free/maintenance-free rock into orbit; getting to and from the rock will be like walking to and from a bus stop.

Quote
The thing with ARM I don't grasp is the existence of appropriate orbits - the ones running Earth-to-Mars or Mars-Jubiter - I get there are "stray" asteroids that near-collide with Earth now and then but are they stable and permanent? This is besides the small matter of successfully knocking asteroids into this orbit(s).

Not sure I get this one.   Are you thinking of natural orbits, those dull circle-like things?    None that are appropriate exist.    These will be new ones, fit for purpose.    They might even look like "zig-zags", with an asteroid moving this way and that way to balance itself between all sorts of gravitational forces.   

Yes, with so many other bodies out there, the question of stability and permanence will arise.     I think part of that can be addressed by having sufficiently large bodies, and part can be addressed by having a reserve bunch of rockets to be used for periodic adjustments. 

Quote
none of them solves the issue of the green-gas emitting folks you despise, do they? The global warmers. For the Mars solution they are likely to be early Martians owing to their deep pockets  :) The space enterprise is likely to go premium before getting round to the hoi polloi... and the early birds will have set up "industries" there to support the incoming masses :D - the tail and the dog.

True, but, as I see it, the implications are not what you seem to think.   No doubt it will be impossible to make sure that all the bad eggs are left behind.     But which would you bet on: (a) the "deep pockets", having literally paid dearly to get away, understanding that they have to mend their ways, or (b) the hoi polloi, who don't even know or understand what is going on, let alone their role in it, behaving properly when they get there?    No matter, this way of looking at things doesn't help in the long term; I think it is better to consider whether people have repented, or can be reformed, or can be woken up and educated.

I also have a different vision of the "early birds": They will be robots that will turn Mars-dust into bricks and concrete for housing and what-not; they will have a Noah's-Ark of animals to boot-up the animal life (minus certain nasties); seeds or seedlings for sukumawiki, cabbage, wheat, and what-not; equipment to dig up wells and make rivers, etc.    When we get there, it will be like arriving at a holiday resort with only most of the best of what we like of Earth.   Well, that's what I have in mind;  I don't care for the idea of paying good money to go do some hard "pioneer" slog in the middle of outer space.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: veritas on August 13, 2017, 06:44:25 AM
Nothing can grow on Mars.

GROWING VEGETABLES ON MARS:
FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION OR TO EASE PSYCHOLOGICAL TENSION?
SIMULATION AT THE MARS DESERT RESEARCH STATION
Vladimir PLETSER
Human Space Exploration and Microgravity Directorate, ESTEC
European Space Agency (ESA),
P.O. Box 299, NL-2200 AG Noordwijk, The Netherlands
Tel: ++31/71/5653316; Fax: ++31/71/5653141; E-mail: Vladimir.Pletser@esa.int
ABSTRACT
The amount of food to bring and eventually to produce on Mars during a manned mission and
the psychological aspect for a human crew to be cut from an earth-like environment and to
live and work in an isolated environment are still debated. Design considerations of a
greenhouse as part of a Martian human settlement include, beside growing vegetables for
consumption, the possibility for astronauts to attend plants and relax in a garden-like area,
possibly reminiscent of an earthly environment.
During international simulation campaigns of manned Martian missions organized by The
Mars Society, several human crews lived and worked in confined isolation. International
crews of mixed gender and professional qualifications conducted various scientific and
operational tasks as Martian crews would. Operations were conducted as they would be
during a Martian mission, including delays in radio communications and Extra-Vehicular
Activities (EVA) with specially designed unpressurized suits.
During a two-week simulation of a manned Mars mission at the Mars Desert Research
Station (MDRS), four different sort of vegetables have been grown for 12 days in the manned
Habitat and in a detached experimental greenhouse accessible during simulated EVA’s. The
six crew members were asked to participate in the observation and reporting of the
germination and growth process. At the end of the simulation, vegetables were harvested and
consumed by the crew. The crew members were asked to comment on the taste and their
feelings about eating this home-grown production.
This paper summarizes first the activities of seed planting, growing and harvesting conducted
during the simulation; second, the observations on psychological impact on the crew of
growing plants during isolation in the manned Habitat and in the greenhouse; and third, the
crew assessment on their appreciation of the vegetable consumption on the last evening.
Indications and suggestions for design of plant growing facilities in future Martian Habitat
are given in conclusion.

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Vladimir_Pletser/publication/312030888_Growing_Vegetables_on_Mars_For_Human_Consumption_or_To_Ease_Psychological_Tension_Simulation_at_the_Mars_Desert_Research_Station/links/586b099908ae6eb871ba8c30/Growing-Vegetables-on-Mars-For-Human-Consumption-or-To-Ease-Psychological-Tension-Simulation-at-the-Mars-Desert-Research-Station.pdf

This is what they ate:

(http://i.imgur.com/770ROuT.png)

Like Termi said earlier, people will likely commit suicide from this sort of food day in day out.


CONCLUSIONS
The opportunity of a Mars simulation campaign was taken to perform preliminary studies of
potential impact of vegetables cultures on crew psychology. During 12 days, six
crewmembers have cultivated four crops from seeds to edible biomass. These cultures were
performed in two separated locations: the habitation module and the external greenhouse.
This last one could only be accessed under EVA conditions.
The crew members were asked to observe and comment on the germination and growth
processes, on the vegetable taste and on their feelings about eating this home grown
production. Comments included respect for other life forms in a lifeless environment,
reminiscence of past days, competition between species, and regrets after harvesting. Cycles
of two to three days were observed in the comment number and duration.
Although this limited experience cannot be statistically representative, a few remarks have
been noted. First, the preparation and the consumption phases seem to be the most attractive
for the crew. Second, the difficulty of EVA outings seems to counterbalance the interest of
the crew for these cultures. Third, the social event associated to the consumption of the
produced food was very well perceived. Fourth, radishes, as already pointed out in previous
studies, reach a high level of appreciation.
With this preliminary collection of psychological data, the authors have no will to raise any
definitive scientific conclusion.
It is well known that nutrition quality has a strong impact on
14
the crew psychology, and it was not possible during this study to separate the attraction of the
growth phase from the consumption phase (i.e. consumption of fresh products).
All preparation studies for Mars mission demonstrate that food production will be mandatory.
Consequently, benefit shall be taken to enhance the synergies between purely life support
investigations and crew psychology studies.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on August 15, 2017, 12:58:13 PM
veri & vooke - Tesla is over-valued right? Looks like folks are craving to over-invest some more  :)


Quote

Tesla, Inc. Bonds See Overwhelming Demand



Daniel Sparks (TMFDanielSparks) Aug 14, 2017 at 1:31PM


Tesla continues to have no trouble raising money to help fund its capital-intensive expansion for Model 3 production ramp-up. Despite receiving a junk rating from Moody's, Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) bond offering last week was oversubscribed.

Tesla announced on Friday that its proposed $1.5 billion senior note offering ended up generating $1.8 billion in aggregate principal notes, or 20% more than Tesla was initially looking for.

(https://g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/454023/tesla-factory-production_large.jpg)

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/08/14/tesla-inc-bonds-see-overwhelming-demand.aspx (https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/08/14/tesla-inc-bonds-see-overwhelming-demand.aspx)
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Globalcitizen12 on August 15, 2017, 03:10:41 PM
Telsa won't be the future. Bmw and Benz will lead this future. Telsa is a pr company. They leased two plants near me then they defaulted on the terms
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on August 15, 2017, 06:13:55 PM
Telsa won't be the future. Bmw and Benz will lead this future. Telsa is a pr company. They leased two plants near me then they defaulted on the terms

Maybe. I wish you could stick to this plain English - most of the time I don't understand what you write here  :)
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on November 02, 2017, 12:46:31 PM
Tesla in trouble... after failing to ramp up Model 3 production. They posted $600m Q3 loss and the stock slid 5%. Autopilot is also behind schedule - I think I spotted GM's Mary Barra grinning ear- to ear  :) despite her own bad report.  I'm not fully sold on the batteries being the biggest bottleneck. The automation - the machine that builds the machine - must be the glitch.

Tesla delays Model 3 production in its worst quarter
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41839826 (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41839826)

Elon Musk Says This Is Tesla’s ‘Biggest Problem’
http://fortune.com/2017/11/01/tesla-elon-musk-model-3-earnings/ (http://fortune.com/2017/11/01/tesla-elon-musk-model-3-earnings/)
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on November 02, 2017, 12:59:39 PM
Musk can be bombastic. The battery spin.

Quote
“We had to rewrite all of the software from scratch,” Musk said, adding that they’d redone “about 20 to 30 man years of software in four weeks” for the battery module. “This is what I spent many late nights at the Gigafactory working on.” Indeed, he noted, he’d even been there at 2 a.m. on a Sunday morning pitching in to help fix the battery production.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: vooke on November 02, 2017, 02:30:36 PM
Robina,
One day reality will catch up with Elon’s hubris
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on November 02, 2017, 02:44:57 PM
Robina,
One day reality will catch up with Elon’s hubris

Hubris is good. Great stuff is made of it.

On a note they have it wrong with the autonomous driving. Autopilot is delayed by the millions of mileage Teslas must cover to "learn" how to drive autonomously. I think a hydra drone can collect the data much faster. This is rather awfully straightforward - I don't get the stalling.

Drones are the solution to a plethora of issues facing the AI crew. Including land- and seascaping for smart-homes, smart-grids, smart-roads, etc.

I am disappointed too that the automation - at the Gigafactory - is taking this long. I think Musk has been distracted by ongoings at SpaceX.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Empedocles on November 02, 2017, 03:11:04 PM
Musk is still looking east for the Model 3:

https://electrek.co/2017/11/02/tesla-factory-china-elon-musk/
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: vooke on November 02, 2017, 03:51:04 PM
Robina,
Some of it borders on fraud. Let’s see
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on November 06, 2017, 01:40:30 PM
The world's biggest coolest factory. Better than sex.

Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: KenyanPlato on November 06, 2017, 02:53:02 PM
Is bitcoin full speed in Kenya? I am getting a lot of queries about it. I am just telling folks it smells like a pyramid and i haven't cared enough to look at the details
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Empedocles on November 06, 2017, 02:59:21 PM
Is bitcoin full speed in Kenya? I am getting a lot of queries about it. I am just telling folks it smells like a pyramid and i haven't cared enough to look at the details
Deutsche Bank, among very many, are taking it seriously:

http://www.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-end-of-fiat-money-2017-11?r=UK&IR=T

Fiat currency is a scam.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on November 06, 2017, 07:37:09 PM
CBK warned Kenyans about cybercurrency sometime back. I doubt this has changed. So there would be no serious exchanges. IBM Kenya is presently hiring cybercurrency researchers. It'll pick up with time. I know a miner in Nairobi - the Andela dude.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Empedocles on November 06, 2017, 07:42:27 PM
CBK warned Kenyans about cybercurrency sometime back. I doubt this has changed. So there would be no serious exchanges. IBM Kenya is presently hiring cybercurrency researchers. It'll pick up with time. I know a miner in Nairobi - the Andela dude.
Oh, we're very many in Kenya who ignored the CBK. [emoji846]
Look up the monthly Kenyan volumes on Localbitcoins.com.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on November 09, 2017, 03:58:08 PM
Driverless shuttle in Las Vegas gets in fender bender within an hour
https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/08/driverless-shuttle-in-las-vegas-gets-in-fender-bender-within-an-hour/ (https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/08/driverless-shuttle-in-las-vegas-gets-in-fender-bender-within-an-hour/)

The comments are hilarious.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: vooke on November 09, 2017, 04:40:47 PM
Snap chat rakes in 207M revenues from 210M Cost of revenues



https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1564408/000156459017022258/snap-ex991_6.htm
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on November 09, 2017, 05:35:53 PM
Driverless shuttle in Las Vegas gets in fender bender within an hour
https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/08/driverless-shuttle-in-las-vegas-gets-in-fender-bender-within-an-hour/ (https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/08/driverless-shuttle-in-las-vegas-gets-in-fender-bender-within-an-hour/)

The comments are hilarious.

It was hit by a truck because it was stationary and could not take evasive action.  That seems like an elementary oversight.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on November 09, 2017, 06:15:48 PM
Driverless shuttle in Las Vegas gets in fender bender within an hour
https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/08/driverless-shuttle-in-las-vegas-gets-in-fender-bender-within-an-hour/ (https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/08/driverless-shuttle-in-las-vegas-gets-in-fender-bender-within-an-hour/)

The comments are hilarious.

It was hit by a truck because it was stationary and could not take evasive action.  That seems like an elementary oversight.

Jeanette Zieres
Sounds like someone forgot to install a horn. Beep Beep!
Like · Reply · Mark as spam · 3 · 10 hrs
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on November 09, 2017, 06:23:38 PM
Snap chat rakes in 207M revenues from 210M Cost of revenues



https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1564408/000156459017022258/snap-ex991_6.htm

It's worth $15B - 50% over Safaricom - and has 180m daily active users. The prospects are good as a camera company. Especially in VR.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Georgesoros on November 09, 2017, 06:29:12 PM
Buy yourself bitcoins and you'll be OK.
You'll be OK when it sinks.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: vooke on November 09, 2017, 07:50:43 PM
Snap chat rakes in 207M revenues from 210M Cost of revenues



https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1564408/000156459017022258/snap-ex991_6.htm

It's worth $15B - 50% over Safaricom - and has 180m daily active users. The prospects are good as a camera company. Especially in VR.

Specs are epic failure.
From the financials;
Excess inventory and related charges – In Q3 2017, we recorded $39.9 million of charges related to Spectacles inventory, primarily related to excess inventory reserves and inventory purchase commitment cancellation charges.

Confirming this mushene
https://www.theverge.com/2017/10/23/16523568/snap-spectacles-unsold-units-hundreds-thousands-report
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on November 09, 2017, 10:54:19 PM
Snap chat rakes in 207M revenues from 210M Cost of revenues



https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1564408/000156459017022258/snap-ex991_6.htm

It's worth $15B - 50% over Safaricom - and has 180m daily active users. The prospects are good as a camera company. Especially in VR.

Specs are epic failure.
From the financials;
Excess inventory and related charges – In Q3 2017, we recorded $39.9 million of charges related to Spectacles inventory, primarily related to excess inventory reserves and inventory purchase commitment cancellation charges.

Confirming this mushene
https://www.theverge.com/2017/10/23/16523568/snap-spectacles-unsold-units-hundreds-thousands-report

Snaptacles were a silly idea seeing the way Google Glass fared. Despite all the subliminal marketing. The scifi series Intelligence was a Glass ploy. The Watch seems to be doing okay.

VR and AR will explode soon. Snapchat has the edge here - especially in the kids market - a key segment.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: veritas on November 10, 2017, 12:19:54 AM
I'm the one that sneered. Here we go again.. Elon oh Elon! He is the quintessential unicorn. I'd be asking when that delusion bubble is gonna burst.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on November 10, 2017, 01:06:35 AM
I'm the one that sneered. Here we go again.. Elon oh Elon! He is the quintessential unicorn. I'd be asking when that delusion bubble is gonna burst.

Ohh veri. AI and space are the future. Elon's on the right track. Do you know his new company Neuralink is creating brain chips - a human computer interface.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: veritas on November 11, 2017, 10:06:58 AM
What exactly will that be? Painted chips? When Edison invented electricity it changed the world, when the atomic bomb was finally patented after numerous scientists came together it changed the world. Do you honestly believe Elon Musk is all that?
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on November 11, 2017, 11:48:10 AM
What exactly will that be? Painted chips? When Edison invented electricity it changed the world, when the atomic bomb was finally patented after numerous scientists came together it changed the world. Do you honestly believe Elon Musk is all that?

Yes veri, I believe Elon Musk is revolutionary. Most modern entrepreneurs just make a small empire for themselves. The Zuckerbergs. Elon is all about longterm impact. Someone who wants to make the human species space-faring and multi-planetary. And to transition the world to sustainable energy. I find that revolutionary, especially because there is visible, rapid progress towards those goals, in SpaceX and those Gigafactories.

Now you can say he could be fighting poverty or disease in Africa as nobler goals. Others are doing that and he's not conceited to know everything.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: veritas on November 11, 2017, 04:01:22 PM
the only difference between him and a dreamer is the fact he has money. Everyone dreams. Name me one achievement he's done for humanity aside from his concept cars.

Robina, have you been to a car show? Each year for the last 50? years they have concept cars and I've been to a few and have witnessed dime a dozen concept cars that'll put Elon to shame. Movers and shakers lay low but know where to flaunt it. Doesn't just stop with cars, rocket concepts, architectural concepts, pretty much everything Elon preaches about has had some proof-of-concept about it 30 years ago. Elon markets things like some unicorn on steroids for comic books on a grander scale and it's so unfortunate intelligent folks like yourself have fallen for it like some unicorn cult.

Jesus is revolutionary but what would Jesus do today but moreso what did Jesus invent? I think you're projecting this Messiah complex, pedestal mindset, cult reprieve on Elon. I know you have a thing for Jesus and I noticed you've sort of replaced your personality fit for a pedestal figure like Jesus to now Elon. I think the solution to this is just to bring Jesus back in your life.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: veritas on November 11, 2017, 04:14:09 PM
Let me remind you Elon appeals to gangly white unicorns in their 40s. It's pretty scary. I should write a book about it.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on November 22, 2017, 06:37:18 PM
This is obviously a dig at the goddess v__* and other naysayers

Bitcoin just passed $8,000

(https://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/bitcoin-8000.png?w=738)

(https://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/screen-shot-2017-11-20-at-1-50-30-pm.png?w=738&h=328)


https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/20/bitcoin-just-passed-8000/ (https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/20/bitcoin-just-passed-8000/)
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: veritas on November 23, 2017, 02:34:26 PM
Lordy Lord.

My dearest Robi, currencies come and go but gold is forever. If ever the world goes to war & the market crashes, I hope you keep a pot of gold stashed somewhere under the rainbow.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on December 29, 2017, 11:57:14 PM
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on January 04, 2018, 06:49:50 PM
The battle for the Appdollar continues -- with spies & tanks

Apple buys app development service Buddybuild
https://techcrunch.com/2018/01/02/apple-buys-app-development-service-buddybuild/ (https://techcrunch.com/2018/01/02/apple-buys-app-development-service-buddybuild/)

(https://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2017/10/worldwide-app-downloads-by-store-q3-2017.png?w=680&h=452)(https://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2017/10/worldwide-consumer-spend-by-store-q3-2017.png?w=680&h=432)
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on January 04, 2018, 06:57:32 PM
I've always sulked at the absence of Afrocentric apps - even App Annie refers to M-Pesa as "Vodafone M-Pesa Wallet" - if you track the android & iOS downloads. It's the same on Apptopia.

Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on January 09, 2018, 02:16:39 AM
Full 2017 App report... Pokémon Go topped the list.

(https://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/2017-app-downloads-worldwide.png?w=1360&h=948)

(https://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/2017-app-revenue-worldwide.png?w=1360&h=948)

(https://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/2017-game-revenue-worldwide.png?w=1&h=1)


App revenue climbed 35 percent to $60 billion in 2017
https://techcrunch.com/2018/01/05/app-revenue-climbed-35-percent-to-60-billion-in-2017/ (https://techcrunch.com/2018/01/05/app-revenue-climbed-35-percent-to-60-billion-in-2017/)
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on January 09, 2018, 02:49:01 AM
Microsoft's conspicuous mobile no-show... Xbox Live & consoles or pc can't beat mobile.

Considering this is lopsided report that excludes non-Google & -Apple downloads and non-mobile apps - plus Chinese market censorship - the app market is quite big. If you're an AR/MR/VR game developer 2018 is the $$ mint year. Expect the "Internet of Elephants" and such VR theme art to loom big... as entertainment goes virtual.

Wearables will outdo consoles in the hardware segment. I think FB/Oculus has poor strategy of big headgear that will loose badly to Apple watch. If Apple manages to extend the VR gaming aperture on the watch - they already have the camera - it'll be a no-brainer. The watch is the new mobile where calls & games are projected on the palm. FB seems to blindly copy Microsoft's blunders; in fact from HoloLens, Google Glass and Snaptacles we know intrusive headgear is unfashionable. Apple and Google will remain the big dogs.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on January 10, 2018, 01:20:46 AM
CES anyone? I'll be there.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on January 10, 2018, 05:09:04 PM
CES anyone? I'll be there.

Not that I know of.  Looks to be interesting.  I saw NVidia's Xavier trending.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on January 10, 2018, 09:27:10 PM
CES anyone? I'll be there.

Not that I know of.  Looks to be interesting.  I saw NVidia's Xavier trending.

Lots of AI - robots, drones, autonomous cars - it's a full candy store.
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Nefertiti on February 04, 2018, 01:22:59 AM
Biggest Serie A ever... where else but kung fu land

Ping An OneConnect fintech subsidiary raises $650 million in financing
https://www.finextra.com/pressarticle/72459/ping-an-oneconnect-fintech-subsidiary-raises-650-million-in-financing (https://www.finextra.com/pressarticle/72459/ping-an-oneconnect-fintech-subsidiary-raises-650-million-in-financing)
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: Georgesoros on November 20, 2018, 09:27:53 PM
Where is Robina.
Bitcoin is less than $4k
Title: Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
Post by: KenyanPlato on November 21, 2018, 06:09:22 AM
Investors are sometimes full of irrational exuberance. Faang stocks are a waste of resources.