Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on August 02, 2017, 11:02:20 AM
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Presidential Projections.
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Governor Projection
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MPS Projection
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Senate Projections.
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Has Charles Hornsby released his final MOAS? He said he'd do one more just before 8/8. Prof. Nic Cheeseman also estimated 52% Jubilee in a paper he released a couple weeks ago.
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I am also waiting for Hornsby take.
http://africanarguments.org/2017/07/12/kenyatta-vs-odinga-a-study-in-contrasts/
I guess you mean Nic draws his conclusion from Ipsos -
If undecided voters divide equally between the two main candidates, Kenyatta looks set to end up on around 52% – surpassing the 50%+1 threshold for a first round win – with Odinga on 47%.
Has Charles Hornsby released his final MOAS? He said he'd do one more just before 8/8. Prof. Nic Cheeseman also estimated 52% Jubilee in a paper he released a couple weeks ago.
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Two incumbents in West Africa have been felled, Mahama and Goodluck, both young incumbents replaced by old guys. The issues in Ghana were sort of similar to Kenya i.e Akufo-Addo focused on bread & butter issues (cost of living) while Mahama concentrated on commissioning projects during campaigns. I think why Ghana won't happen in Kenya is because East Africa is different from West. We didn't experience economic collapse due to dependence on commodity prices -- our economies are more diversified. Ghana was so bad (especially in 2014/15) that they needed IMF bailouts, which are going on even now.
Here is Nic Cheeseman's analysis: http://democracyinafrica.org/going-happen-kenyan-elections-2017-mean-country/
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Pundit
Your games are well known to me. You can cheat ALL these people but always know I know your games.
Uhuru is going home. The bribes to Returning Officers will not work. The Remote voting will not work. The ballot stuffing has limited value because even if all the registered voters in Jubilee strongholds vote, they cannot overcome the NASA strongholds.
Your game is based on stuffing or rigging in at least FIVE NASA strongholds. You have already sealed off NEP and Isiolo, and Marsabit even Garissa. But your problem is that those areas have very few votes. You have registered children in Kiambu but have fears that being too close to Nairobi, you may not pull it off. Thus you needed to Kill the person you called contemptuously called "jaluo from Ugenya" so YOU can hack the database and disable the biometrics to allow manual voting with the ID as the only identification. This is supposed to be coordinated so that groups will vote at specific times of one-hour windows when the system will go off without explanation.
Other areas you need by force are:
1. Kisii
2. Nyamira
4. Kwale
5. Kilifi
6. Bungoma
7. Mombasa
8. Tana River
9. Taita- Taveta
10. Lamu
You need 5 of those to win and that is the focus.
Note one thing: Two can play the game. Hakuna mjinga duniani.
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Yeah I am working with Davis Chirchir to rig the coming election as per that MOAS.
Pundit
Your games are well known to me. You can cheat ALL these people but always know I know your games.
Uhuru is going home. The bribes to Returning Officers will not work. The Remote voting will not work. The ballot stuffing has limited value because even if all the registered voters in Jubilee strongholds vote, they cannot overcome the NASA strongholds.
Your game is based on stuffing or rigging in at least FIVE NASA strongholds. You have already sealed off NEP and Isiolo, and Marsabit even Garissa. But your problem is that those areas have very few votes. You have registered children in Kiambu but have fears that being too close to Nairobi, you may not pull it off. Thus you needed to Kill the person you called contemptuously called "jaluo from Ugenya" so YOU can hack the database and disable the biometrics to allow manual voting with the ID as the only identification. This is supposed to be coordinated so that groups will vote at specific times of one-hour windows when the system will go off without explanation.
Other areas you need by force are:
1. Kisii
2. Nyamira
4. Kwale
5. Kilifi
6. Bungoma
7. Mombasa
8. Tana River
9. Taita- Taveta
10. Lamu
You need 5 of those to win and that is the focus.
Note one thing: Two can play the game. Hakuna mjinga duniani.
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NASA intelligence exonerated you. So I accordingly withdraw.
Yeah I am working with Davis Chirchir to rig the coming election as per that MOAS.
Pundit
Your games are well known to me. You can cheat ALL these people but always know I know your games.
Uhuru is going home. The bribes to Returning Officers will not work. The Remote voting will not work. The ballot stuffing has limited value because even if all the registered voters in Jubilee strongholds vote, they cannot overcome the NASA strongholds.
Your game is based on stuffing or rigging in at least FIVE NASA strongholds. You have already sealed off NEP and Isiolo, and Marsabit even Garissa. But your problem is that those areas have very few votes. You have registered children in Kiambu but have fears that being too close to Nairobi, you may not pull it off. Thus you needed to Kill the person you called contemptuously called "jaluo from Ugenya" so YOU can hack the database and disable the biometrics to allow manual voting with the ID as the only identification. This is supposed to be coordinated so that groups will vote at specific times of one-hour windows when the system will go off without explanation.
Other areas you need by force are:
1. Kisii
2. Nyamira
4. Kwale
5. Kilifi
6. Bungoma
7. Mombasa
8. Tana River
9. Taita- Taveta
10. Lamu
You need 5 of those to win and that is the focus.
Note one thing: Two can play the game. Hakuna mjinga duniani.
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Pundit, on UG - what is the NASA calculation in endorsing WSR foot soldier Mandago? Banking on Nandi rebellion?
Governor Projection
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I think for WSR having Mandago is political asset - Buzeki is not a politician - he'll do just fine running his own or ruto proxy business. Mandago is proving himself to be very tough political nut and Ruto will need such kind of folks to do the dirty work - against senator Njoroge, Munyas and Kabagos - who will try to upstage the Ruto in 2022.
Pundit, on UG - what is the NASA calculation in endorsing WSR foot soldier Mandago? Banking on Nandi rebellion?
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Talk about counting your chicken before they are hatched. Affter their impending loss, the mafia will blame WSR for focusing so much in his 2022 bid and not sensing the silent revolution that will definitely send them home on nane nane.
I think for WSR having Mandago is political asset - Buzeki is not a politician - he'll do just fine running his own or ruto proxy business. Mandago is proving himself to be very tough political nut and Ruto will need such kind of folks to do the dirty work - against senator Njoroge, Munyas and Kabagos - who will try to upstage the Ruto in 2022.
Pundit, on UG - what is the NASA calculation in endorsing WSR foot soldier Mandago? Banking on Nandi rebellion?
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My question is how does this scenario you describe play out in NASA? -why endorse Mandago?
I think for WSR having Mandago is political asset - Buzeki is not a politician - he'll do just fine running his own or ruto proxy business. Mandago is proving himself to be very tough political nut and Ruto will need such kind of folks to do the dirty work - against senator Njoroge, Munyas and Kabagos - who will try to upstage the Ruto in 2022.
Pundit, on UG - what is the NASA calculation in endorsing WSR foot soldier Mandago? Banking on Nandi rebellion?
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Coz he has shown he can hurt Jubilee and the Kalenjin-Kikuyu marriage.
My question is how does this scenario you describe play out in NASA? -why endorse Mandago?
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I see - are you sure he is an asset to WSR? Logically what is good for NASA should be bad for Jubilee.
Coz he has shown he can hurt Jubilee and the Kalenjin-Kikuyu marriage.
My question is how does this scenario you describe play out in NASA? -why endorse Mandago?
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What's the story with Iteso - have they gone NASA?
Presidential Projections.
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What's the story with Iteso - have they gone NASA?
Presidential Projections.
Teso has always been ODM.
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What's the story with Iteso - have they gone NASA?
Presidential Projections.
Teso has always been ODM.
Iteso are Sabaot more than Luo... in MOAS context. Proof:
Teso North MP - Arthur Odera - URP
Teso South MP - Mary Maase - URP
My query is why Jubilee only scores 7% in Busia where the Iteso are 30% if they lean Jubilee.
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In 2013 they didn't have a Teso governor
What's the story with Iteso - have they gone NASA?
Presidential Projections.
Teso has always been ODM.
Iteso are Sabaot more than Luo... in MOAS context. Proof:
Teso North MP - Arthur Odera - URP
Teso South MP - Mary Maase - URP
My query is why Jubilee only scores 7% in Busia where the Iteso are 30% if they lean Jubilee.
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What's the story with Iteso - have they gone NASA?
Presidential Projections.
Teso has always been ODM.
Iteso are Sabaot more than Luo... in MOAS context. Proof:
Teso North MP - Arthur Odera - URP
Teso South MP - Mary Maase - URP
My query is why Jubilee only scores 7% in Busia where the Iteso are 30% if they lean Jubilee.
I was going by the fact the Busia has an ODM Teso governor. I think these MPs are oddballs.
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What's the story with Iteso - have they gone NASA?
Presidential Projections.
Teso has always been ODM.
Iteso are Sabaot more than Luo... in MOAS context. Proof:
Teso North MP - Arthur Odera - URP
Teso South MP - Mary Maase - URP
My query is why Jubilee only scores 7% in Busia where the Iteso are 30% if they lean Jubilee.
I was going by the fact the Busia has an ODM Teso governor. I think these MPs are oddballs.
Not really. Ojaamongson sliced off some Luhya votes, plus Luo and Teso to romp home. A majority chunk of the Luhya went UDF (Madvd). The two Teso MPs went Jubilee.
Iteso are mtu yetu type. Otuoma is guaranteed a win because Madvd is in NASA, so he attracts Luhya + Luo who will spurn cheating Ojaamong. Iteso will die with Ojaamong.
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That could probably work if Otuoma were to be in ANC
Not really. Ojaamongson sliced off some Luhya votes, plus Luo and Teso to romp home. A majority chunk of the Luhya went UDF (Madvd). The two Teso MPs went Jubilee.
Iteso are mtu yetu type. Otuoma is guaranteed a win because Madvd is in NASA, so he attracts Luhya + Luo who will spurn cheating Ojaamong. Iteso will die with Ojaamong.
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Explain.
That could probably work if Otuoma were to be in ANC
Not really. Ojaamongson sliced off some Luhya votes, plus Luo and Teso to romp home. A majority chunk of the Luhya went UDF (Madvd). The two Teso MPs went Jubilee.
Iteso are mtu yetu type. Otuoma is guaranteed a win because Madvd is in NASA, so he attracts Luhya + Luo who will spurn cheating Ojaamong. Iteso will die with Ojaamong.
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MaDVD has near zero influence on Busia luhyas and Iteso. Of all the western - Busia Luhyas (Banyala,Marachi,Samia,marama) is the nearest to Luos' you'll get in Luhyas..culturally and politically - perhaps apart from Bunyore of Vihiga..you could classify the Luhyas of Busia the same way with Abasuba..only bantu in name!. The Iteso are close to Turkana - and not Sabaot - who are Kalenjin.As Omollo indicates - Iteso have Ojaamong and that is their single interest in the election. I think URP mps fluke through(I bet URP finances helped them)...Iteso would definitely support WSR if Ojaamong wasn't that strong.
Raila got 86% of Busia..Uhur 4%..maDVD maybe 10%...this time round I see Uhuru improving his 4% to 7% ..due to Ababu, Okemo and incumbency (money+prov administration)...max would be 10% for Uhuru..all that effort will count for little and yet Ababu may have to be fixed in some job.
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I see. Think I saw somewhere that UDF guy scored big - 30% which is more than half of all Luhya - for Busia governor 2013. Must have been a strong candidate.
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What's the story with Iteso - have they gone NASA?
Presidential Projections.
Teso has always been ODM.
Iteso are Sabaot more than Luo... in MOAS context. Proof:
Teso North MP - Arthur Odera - URP
Teso South MP - Mary Maase - URP
My query is why Jubilee only scores 7% in Busia where the Iteso are 30% if they lean Jubilee.
These two were rigged out of ODM and hopped on to the nearest vehicle.
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Nobody took these guys seriously -Uhuru 53% - Raila 43% -
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001250136/opinion-poll-puts-uhuru-kenyatta-in-the-lead-with-53pc
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Never heard of them... they do seem to have good fundamentals.
Some 9,995 voters across all 47 counties were interviewed. The target sample was 10,000 registered voters and the data had a one per cent margin of error.
The sample was selected using the random, multi-stage stratified method and proportionate population size.
Nobody took these guys seriously -Uhuru 53% - Raila 43% -
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001250136/opinion-poll-puts-uhuru-kenyatta-in-the-lead-with-53pc
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(http://omollosview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Briefcase-Pollster.jpg)
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Omollo the hacker yawa. 1-year experience is hardly inspiring.
(http://omollosview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Briefcase-Pollster.jpg)
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Omollo the hacker yawa. 1-year experience is hardly inspiring.
(http://omollosview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Briefcase-Pollster.jpg)
1 year is the how old their domain name is.
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Only Pundit, vooke and Globalvillager12 think Jubilee is winning. I wonder why.
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Only Pundit, vooke and Globalvillager12 think Jubilee is winning. I wonder why.
They might win. Or not. But from what I have seen presented here, the justifications have a lot to do with confirmation bias than anything concrete. They might get it right, but so would a guy throwing a bone and making the same prediction. People are helplessly partisan. One is better off just waiting for 8/8. Less than a week to go.
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Windy, I do not mind the partisanship-that's politics. What I objected to strenuously was the arrogant attempt by Pundit to declare that his predictions which are as partisan as mine are in fact based on science and math and therefore somehow superior. Bullshit! His guess is as good as mine win or loose.
Only Pundit, vooke and Globalvillager12 think Jubilee is winning. I wonder why.
They might win. Or not. But from what I have seen presented here, the justifications have a lot to do with confirmation bias than anything concrete. They might get it right, but so would a guy throwing a bone and making the same prediction. People are helplessly partisan. One is better off just waiting for 8/8. Less than a week to go.
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Windy, I do not mind the partisanship-that's politics. What I objected to strenuously was the arrogant attempt by Pundit to declare that his predictions which are as partisan as mine are in fact based on science and math and therefore somehow superior. Bullshit! His guess is as good as mine win or loose.
Only Pundit, vooke and Globalvillager12 think Jubilee is winning. I wonder why.
They might win. Or not. But from what I have seen presented here, the justifications have a lot to do with confirmation bias than anything concrete. They might get it right, but so would a guy throwing a bone and making the same prediction. People are helplessly partisan. One is better off just waiting for 8/8. Less than a week to go.
Difference is you've never been right.
Pundito may be partisan, but he gets it right all the way to parliament, or misses negligibly
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Precisely, Omollo you have nailed Kimetrica psyop.
Remember who introduced Hornsby on this site? What was the motive? Am not a big fan of doxxing but since we have reached the end of campaign season I think it's only fair I publish full dosier on Baghdad Bob. Watu washagaa. Pundit
Your games are well known to me. You can cheat ALL these people but always know I know your games.
Uhuru is going home. The bribes to Returning Officers will not work. The Remote voting will not work. The ballot stuffing has limited value because even if all the registered voters in Jubilee strongholds vote, they cannot overcome the NASA strongholds.
Your game is based on stuffing or rigging in at least FIVE NASA strongholds. You have already sealed off NEP and Isiolo, and Marsabit even Garissa. But your problem is that those areas have very few votes. You have registered children in Kiambu but have fears that being too close to Nairobi, you may not pull it off. Thus you needed to Kill the person you called contemptuously called "jaluo from Ugenya" so YOU can hack the database and disable the biometrics to allow manual voting with the ID as the only identification. This is supposed to be coordinated so that groups will vote at specific times of one-hour windows when the system will go off without explanation.
Other areas you need by force are:
1. Kisii
2. Nyamira
4. Kwale
5. Kilifi
6. Bungoma
7. Mombasa
8. Tana River
9. Taita- Taveta
10. Lamu
You need 5 of those to win and that is the focus.
Note one thing: Two can play the game. Hakuna mjinga duniani.
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Charles Hornsby still says 52% Uhuru.
https://www.theelephant.info/future/2017/08/05/the-end-of-the-line-predicting-kenyas-vote-on-august/
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Ati I have never been right. In your little world 2013 was the first election ever anywhere in the world.
Windy, I do not mind the partisanship-that's politics. What I objected to strenuously was the arrogant attempt by Pundit to declare that his predictions which are as partisan as mine are in fact based on science and math and therefore somehow superior. Bullshit! His guess is as good as mine win or loose.
Only Pundit, vooke and Globalvillager12 think Jubilee is winning. I wonder why.
They might win. Or not. But from what I have seen presented here, the justifications have a lot to do with confirmation bias than anything concrete. They might get it right, but so would a guy throwing a bone and making the same prediction. People are helplessly partisan. One is better off just waiting for 8/8. Less than a week to go.
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1. Kiambu Governor - Waititu
2. Nairobi Governor - Kidero
3. Machakos - Wavinya Ndeti
4. Kirinyaga county - Waiguru
5. Kamukunji - Boniface pulls a suprise wins by 34%
6. dagorretti - KJ loses to Again
With that Uhuru will clinch this thing with 52.7 % vs Railas 47%
Raila will challenge the elections lose and move on. 2022 will be Kalonzo vs Mudavadi. Ruto will die around 2020
I pulled this out of my arse. So do not expect any statistical analysis
Modify message
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Ati I have never been right. In your little world 2013 was the first election ever anywhere in the world.
Windy, I do not mind the partisanship-that's politics. What I objected to strenuously was the arrogant attempt by Pundit to declare that his predictions which are as partisan as mine are in fact based on science and math and therefore somehow superior. Bullshit! His guess is as good as mine win or loose.
Only Pundit, vooke and Globalvillager12 think Jubilee is winning. I wonder why.
They might win. Or not. But from what I have seen presented here, the justifications have a lot to do with confirmation bias than anything concrete. They might get it right, but so would a guy throwing a bone and making the same prediction. People are helplessly partisan. One is better off just waiting for 8/8. Less than a week to go.
You are wrong and will be wrong, and your excuse will be rigging
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Kericho n Bomet definitely going to get wrong..Raila will score single digits.
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Adding Prof Charles Hornsby take
https://www.theelephant.info/future/2017/08/05/the-end-of-the-line-predicting-kenyas-vote-on-august/
Presidential
I still predict a Jubilee victory by 52% for Kenyatta and Ruto to 48% for Odinga and Musyoka, with all others less than 1% combined. On a 76% turnout, that would be just under 8 million votes for Jubilee and just over 7 million for NASA.
Gubernational.
(https://www.theelephant.info/uploads/2017/08/hornsby_3_3.jpg)
At the 290 parliamentary constituencies level, it is near-impossible to apply the same level of scrutiny, but at a high level, the pattern is similar. Roughly 54% of parliamentary constituencies look like being pro-Jubilee (including affiliate parties and independents); 46% pro-NASA.
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Comparing FINAL MOAS & Charles Hornby.
- PRESIDENTIAL - 52% versus 47% -
-Turn out -76% versus MOAS 86%
-GOV (23 jubilee, 20 Nasa, 4 too close to call ) - MOAS (ANC 1 MCC 1 FDR 1 JUBILEE 27 WIPER 1 FORD K 1 ODM 11 INDEPENDENT 4)
-Parliament (54% versus 46%) - MOAS (55% for Jubilee, 38% for NASA, 7% for Independent & others parties).
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I agree with Hornsby - except on PORK . NASA executive with a hung parliament.
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Until you learn to distinguish btw what you desire and what will pan out you'll not be able to dispassionately read politics. That is difference btw Ngina and Njamba. Robina confuses what she wants with reality. GlobalCitizen although he would like different outcome is acutely aware of the reality. Kichwa Mbaya create his own universe. Omollo tries so hard to literally fight reality - an exercise in futlity.
Put your figures down.
I agree with Hornsby - except on PORK . NASA executive with a hung parliament.
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Until you learn to distinguish btw what you desire and what will pan out you'll not be able to dispassionately read politics. That is difference btw Ngina and Njamba. Robina confuses what she wants with reality. GlobalCitizen although he would like different outcome is acutely aware of the reality. Kichwa Mbaya create his own universe. Omollo tries so hard to literally fight reality - an exercise in futlity.
Put your figures down.
I agree with Hornsby - except on PORK . NASA executive with a hung parliament.
I like that commentary.
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What hopefully this election result will help you understand is the distinction between describing normative behavior and stating facts.
Until you learn to distinguish btw what you desire and what will pan out you'll not be able to dispassionately read politics. That is difference btw Ngina and Njamba. Robina confuses what she wants with reality. GlobalCitizen although he would like different outcome is acutely aware of the reality. Kichwa Mbaya create his own universe. Omollo tries so hard to literally fight reality - an exercise in futlity.
Put your figures down.
I agree with Hornsby - except on PORK . NASA executive with a hung parliament.
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Guess - according to Global - Ruto will die in 2020
Until you learn to distinguish btw what you desire and what will pan out you'll not be able to dispassionately read politics. That is difference btw Ngina and Njamba. Robina confuses what she wants with reality. GlobalCitizen although he would like different outcome is acutely aware of the reality. Kichwa Mbaya create his own universe. Omollo tries so hard to literally fight reality - an exercise in futlity.
Put your figures down.
I agree with Hornsby - except on PORK . NASA executive with a hung parliament.
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Pundit,
Upload this to SCRIb or google share.. Or send them my inbox.. I need to review the numbers against results so that I can see how Good/bad the MOAS is
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I will share the excel shortly
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In a jiffy we can annoint this a new branch of science - or the Mother Of All (B)S.
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The moron fled to go back to kericho ..I asked fo the file. It promised to give it to me 3 hours ago. It is in naivasha now driving like an elephant on hest
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Attached the Final Final MOAS EXCEL
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Attached the Final Final MOAS EXCEL
THank you sir you are a tribal lord of our times
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I tweeked the numbers and it is so sad NASA has no path to presidency
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Jubilee reminds me of Hillary Clinton and her media choir. Trump had no path to the White House... cos of the "blue wall"... before the fat
lady dude sang... and she got beaten like isukuti. The rest is history. Global here will be leading the #notmypresident procession.
I tweeked the numbers and it is so sad NASA has no path to presidency
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I do not vote in USA because to me it is a waste of time. I vote in local elections only and school board or referendum.
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Pundito the Numbers Bandito
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Look good so far..but we will review MOAS once we have final final results.
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Nasa really underperformed. Losing kisii and machakos proofs that a coalition of small tribes is a waste of time. Kisiii knew raila was not going to beat uhuru so they joined the winning coalition. Kikuyus and kalenjins will rule Kenya till 2032.
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Biggest losers Martha karua, went to the village lost the national appeal, waving ndeti, her Nigerian mumu politics is getting smashed, mudavadi he had a chance to be there in 2022 now he will be old looking like Joshua bandia, Kalonzo finally the Mr katikati loses 3 times, Kalonzo went from lion of ukambani to a hyena, mutua is now the drfacto tribal king of ukambani, kidero boy ooh boy thieves can never learn, peter Kenneth no one cares about you anymore go back to murang'a, kabogo rejected twice and finally raila at 72 years he has been retired dishonorably..the biggest winner is tribalism. The formula for winning join a big tribe and support it's candidate.