Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Kichwa on July 25, 2017, 01:36:42 PM
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The question of whether we vote solely on tribal lines was asked of Raila at the "debate". He rejected that conventional wisdom and called it "homeboy" syndrome instead. He pointed out that this homeboy voting syndrome is found all over the world including places where people do not necessarily identify themselves as tribes. He also did not see it as a big problem in kenya because "homeboy voting is easily neutralized by voters from regions where the candidate is not considered a homeboy and therefore more likely to focus on Issues.
I am sure this will infuriate those who peddle the tribal voting theory and they will ridicule Raila's answer because they rely on people to believe in the tribal voting to motivate their supporters and intimidate the opposition into apathy and submission by making them believe that they not to have the tribal numbers to win.
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you are really trying to believe your own Utopia. Voting in Kenya is tribal period. There is no reason other than being that if you have your tribe in power you will benefit. Kalenjin and Kikuyus are only in an alliance because of the patronage their tribes may get from them being in power.. ODM/NASA without Luos and Luhyas is dead
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That maybe true for Luos and Kikuyus to certain extent but using your own reasoning explain to me why the other tribes are voting for one or the other.
you are really trying to believe your own Utopia. Voting in Kenya is tribal period. There is no reason other than being that if you have your tribe in power you will benefit. Kalenjin and Kikuyus are only in an alliance because of the patronage their tribes may get from them being in power.. ODM/NASA without Luos and Luhyas is dead
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Ok, I will give you four tribes for argument sake but what about the other 40 tribes who do not have a presidential or a DP tribesmate as candidate-why are they voting for either Jubilee or NASA.
That maybe true for Luos and Kikuyus to certain extent but using your own reasoning explain to me why the other tribes are voting for one or the other.
you are really trying to believe your own Utopia. Voting in Kenya is tribal period. There is no reason other than being that if you have your tribe in power you will benefit. Kalenjin and Kikuyus are only in an alliance because of the patronage their tribes may get from them being in power.. ODM/NASA without Luos and Luhyas is dead
Kichwa; Gema and Kalenjin nations will vote Jubilee becoz of UhuRuto. The same applies to Luos, Kambas, Luhyas due to Raila, Kalonzo, MDVD and Weta in NASA.
Other tribes will join either of the above bandwagons depending on which Party will take care of their tribal Leader interests.
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Every tribe has some form of leadership. Every clan the same.
Ok, I will give you four tribes for argument sake but what about the other 40 tribes who do not have a presidential or a DP tribesmate as candidate-why are they voting for either Jubilee or NASA.
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The question of whether we vote solely on tribal lines was asked of Raila at the "debate". He rejected that conventional wisdom and called it "homeboy" syndrome instead. He pointed out that this homeboy voting syndrome is found all over the world including places where people do not necessarily identify themselves as tribes. He also did not see it as a big problem in kenya because "homeboy voting is easily neutralized by voters from regions where the candidate is not considered a homeboy and therefore more likely to focus on Issues.
I am sure this will infuriate those who peddle the tribal voting theory and they will ridicule Raila's answer because they rely on people to believe in the tribal voting to motivate their supporters and intimidate the opposition into apathy and submission by making them believe that they not to have the tribal numbers to win.
Why do you struggle so hard to dismiss the obvious?
Homeboys are leaders of communities.
These communities are scattered.
Mathare has Luos from Nyanza.
Mathare Luos don't vote overwhelmingly for Baba because they are from Nyanza but rather because he is their kinsmen.
Go to RV, say Rongai. Kikuyus in Rongai voted for Kibaki in 2002 not because he is from their place (in fact many have never been to Central Kenya) but simply because he was their kinsmen.
Why did Luhyas vote for Baba and MaDVD in 2013 and not Uhuru?
MaDVD was because he was their kinsmen, Baba was because their leaders convinced them that their interests were best served by Baba. When you interrogate these interests, they may simply be leadership positions.
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....and according to you, these tribal or clan leaders tell their subjects how to vote in away that you can mathematically captured in your MOAS. If anybody can believe that then I do not know why they have problems believing Dr. Owuor's prophesy.
Every tribe has some form of leadership. Every clan the same.
Ok, I will give you four tribes for argument sake but what about the other 40 tribes who do not have a presidential or a DP tribesmate as candidate-why are they voting for either Jubilee or NASA.
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....and according to you, these tribal or clan leaders tell their subjects how to vote in away that you can mathematically captured in your MOAS. If anybody can believe that then I do not know why they have problems believing Dr. Owuor's prophesy.
Every tribe has some form of leadership. Every clan the same.
Ok, I will give you four tribes for argument sake but what about the other 40 tribes who do not have a presidential or a DP tribesmate as candidate-why are they voting for either Jubilee or NASA.
Tribal leaders guide their tribes. That's why Babu woed Rutto. It's not because of his national stature but rather his perceived influence over South Rift (his tribe). This may or may not work. Uhuru has Lusaka but is unlikely to get huge chunks of Bungoma. You readily admit this. But you are unwilling to believe that similarly Babu's foray into South Rift is nearly stillborn
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It depend on the strength of that clan or tribal leadership. The clout they have. Some lead their people anywhere (Raila type). Others are lagging - being dragged along by people. Then other tribes or clans have so many leadership going in different direction it's impossible to model - we reliey on opinion polls. That is what MOAS easy - we watch Raila - we assign all luo votes to column x. We watch a man with big clout in some clan in Kisii - we assign those votes there. When we cannot tell what leaders or elders will influence some group - we relie on opinion poll or even split the vote half-half.
So all you need is to understand the complexity and tribal matrix in kenya as deeply as I understand. You also need to know some tribes historically align. They've been allies for such a long time ...so Luo and Suba..will work together....Kalenjin and Matusa will work together....Somalis & Oromos will flow together...Merus & Embus will flow together...etc.
....and according to you, these tribal or clan leaders tell their subjects how to vote in away that you can mathematically captured in your MOAS. If anybody can believe that then I do not know why they have problems believing Dr. Owuor's prophesy.
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kichwa,
Your ideals are shared by myself. It doesn't have to be tribal. It could even change in this election. In fact I am ready to consider it a change if Raila gets 30% of Kikuyus, and 20% of Luos vote for Uhuru.
But it hasn't happened yet. There is no single Kenyan election in history that can be explained in coherent terms without taking tribe into account. It's a bit like race in America. The history of American can be summed up as the history of the African American question.
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BTW, Raila got more Luhyia votes than MDVD and Uhuru in 2013 and he is not a luhyia. The theory of "tribal voting" is not sustainable. The only reason why Pundito and ouruto damu supporters cling to it is because it is their only path to victory. The issues are all against them and they believe and hope that tribe will carry them over the 50% mark. They were very confident of this in the beginning but now they are starting to bite their nails.
The question of whether we vote solely on tribal lines was asked of Raila at the "debate". He rejected that conventional wisdom and called it "homeboy" syndrome instead. He pointed out that this homeboy voting syndrome is found all over the world including places where people do not necessarily identify themselves as tribes. He also did not see it as a big problem in kenya because "homeboy voting is easily neutralized by voters from regions where the candidate is not considered a homeboy and therefore more likely to focus on Issues.
I am sure this will infuriate those who peddle the tribal voting theory and they will ridicule Raila's answer because they rely on people to believe in the tribal voting to motivate their supporters and intimidate the opposition into apathy and submission by making them believe that they not to have the tribal numbers to win.
Why do you struggle so hard to dismiss the obvious?
Homeboys are leaders of communities.
These communities are scattered.
Mathare has Luos from Nyanza.
Mathare Luos don't vote overwhelmingly for Baba because they are from Nyanza but rather because he is their kinsmen.
Go to RV, say Rongai. Kikuyus in Rongai voted for Kibaki in 2002 not because he is from their place (in fact many have never been to Central Kenya) but simply because he was their kinsmen.
Why did Luhyas vote for Baba and MaDVD in 2013 and not Uhuru?
MaDVD was because he was their kinsmen, Baba was because their leaders convinced them that their interests were best served by Baba. When you interrogate these interests, they may simply be leadership positions.
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Luhya is not a real tribe. It amalgamation of 17 tribes. Bukusu & maragoli rarely agree on political stand. NASA has had too have two luhya pricipals for that reason. MaDVD got maragoli+third bukusu vote (after forming alliance with Wamalwa+kombo). Raila got 2/3 Bukusu (ford-k from Wetangula)+rest of Luhyas tribes(less maragoli).
Now as we head towards another election we will see slightly third (1/3) Bukusu - aligned to Wamalwa - will vote Jubilee- and wangas of mumias - looked all set for Jubilee. Raila & NASA will get the rest.
And now that is MOAS.
BTW, Raila got more Luhyia votes than MDVD and Uhuru in 2013 and he is not a luhyia. The theory of "tribal voting" is not sustainable. The only reason why Pundito and ouruto damu supporters cling to it is because it is their only path to victory. The issues are all against them and they believe and hope that tribe will carry them over the 50% mark. They were very confident of this in the beginning but now they are starting to bite their nails.
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BTW, Raila got more Luhyia votes than MDVD and Uhuru in 2013 and he is not a luhyia. The theory of "tribal voting" is not sustainable. The only reason why Pundito and ouruto damu supporters cling to it is because it is their only path to victory. The issues are all against them and they believe and hope that tribe will carry them over the 50% mark. They were very confident of this in the beginning but now they are starting to bite their nails.
The question of whether we vote solely on tribal lines was asked of Raila at the "debate". He rejected that conventional wisdom and called it "homeboy" syndrome instead. He pointed out that this homeboy voting syndrome is found all over the world including places where people do not necessarily identify themselves as tribes. He also did not see it as a big problem in kenya because "homeboy voting is easily neutralized by voters from regions where the candidate is not considered a homeboy and therefore more likely to focus on Issues.
I am sure this will infuriate those who peddle the tribal voting theory and they will ridicule Raila's answer because they rely on people to believe in the tribal voting to motivate their supporters and intimidate the opposition into apathy and submission by making them believe that they not to have the tribal numbers to win.
Why do you struggle so hard to dismiss the obvious?
Homeboys are leaders of communities.
These communities are scattered.
Mathare has Luos from Nyanza.
Mathare Luos don't vote overwhelmingly for Baba because they are from Nyanza but rather because he is their kinsmen.
Go to RV, say Rongai. Kikuyus in Rongai voted for Kibaki in 2002 not because he is from their place (in fact many have never been to Central Kenya) but simply because he was their kinsmen.
Why did Luhyas vote for Baba and MaDVD in 2013 and not Uhuru?
MaDVD was because he was their kinsmen, Baba was because their leaders convinced them that their interests were best served by Baba. When you interrogate these interests, they may simply be leadership positions.
NASWA is a tribal outfit. Do you know what took them so long in agreeing on a lineup?
Possible fallout of the tribal blocs that make up NASWA.
IN 2007, Babu and Ubako got ZERO Kamba votes. Tell me what issues Kalonzo articulated for Lower Eastern better than Kibaki and Babu combined.
If Kalonzo moved to Jubilee, all Kamba votes would be in Jubilee.
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BTW, Raila got more Luhyia votes than MDVD and Uhuru in 2013 and he is not a luhyia. The theory of "tribal voting" is not sustainable. The only reason why Pundito and ouruto damu supporters cling to it is because it is their only path to victory. The issues are all against them and they believe and hope that tribe will carry them over the 50% mark. They were very confident of this in the beginning but now they are starting to bite their nails.
Kichwa,
There are other factors that can determine how the tribes will vote. Most Luhyas figured Mudavadi was unviable, and opted for the next best option. The same reason Orengo had no luck in his backyard in 2002. You need to be viable to attract the tribe.
I know it's hypothetical, but not unreasonable, that if the madimoni issue did not arise and Mudavadi became the Jubilant candidate, he would have mopped the floor in western with Raila.
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That is because tribe in Kenya is very conspicuous and that is what people see first. If you buy a red car, you will see a lot of red cars and start theorizing that a lot of people are buying red cars. If you lose a close family member in a road accident, you will hear people say that " a lot of people are dying in road accident's these days". After every election, it is much easier to come up with a tribal pattern of how people voted and ignore the ideas which drove them to do so. In 2002 it is much easier to just say "Luos voted for Kibaki because Raila told them to" than "Luo's voted for Kibaki because they were tired of Moi/Kanu rule". In 2010 Ruto convinced Kalenjins the New Katiba was not good for them and that is why they voted against it. The next question is therefore, why was Ruto able to do that. The answer is that because he is one of them and they trust him to tell him the truth. I also stand a better chance of selling to my family members and my friends an insurance policy than a stranger because they trust me. However, this does not mean they will buy anything I sell them-I just stand a better chance. So Raila, and Ouru, based on their standing in the luo and Kikuyu communities, stand a better chance of selling their policies to these group. However substitute Raila and Ouru with any kikuyu or luo and the story will be different. We know how long it took Raila or even Ouru to consolidate their tribal leadership. When Ouru and Raila leave the political scene, this tribal voting theory will fall apart very quickly.
kichwa,
Your ideals are shared by myself. It doesn't have to be tribal. It could even change in this election. In fact I am ready to consider it a change if Raila gets 30% of Kikuyus, and 20% of Luos vote for Uhuru.
But it hasn't happened yet. There is no single Kenyan election in history that can be explained in coherent terms without taking tribe into account. It's a bit like race in America. The history of American can be summed up as the history of the African American question.
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That is because tribe in Kenya is very conspicuous and that is what people see first. If you buy a red car, you will see a lot of red cars and start theorizing that a lot of people are buying red cars. If you lose a close family member in a road accident, you will hear people say that " a lot of people are dying in road accident's these days". After every election, it is much easier to come up with a tribal pattern of how people voted and ignore the ideas which drove them to do so. In 2002 it is much easier to just say "Luos voted for Kibaki because Raila told them to" than "Luo's voted for Kibaki because they were tired of Moi/Kanu rule". In 2010 Ruto convinced Kalenjins the New Katiba was not good for them and that is why they voted against it. The next question is therefore, why was Ruto able to do that. The answer is that because he is one of them and they trust him to tell him the truth. I also stand a better chance of selling to my family members and my friends an insurance policy than a stranger because they trust me. However, this does not mean they will buy anything I sell them-I just stand a better chance. So Raila, and Ouru, based on their standing in the luo and Kikuyu communities, stand a better chance of selling their policies to these group. However substitute Raila and Ouru with any kikuyu or luo and the story will be different. We know how long it took Raila or even Ouru to consolidate their tribal leadership. When Ouru and Raila leave the political scene, this tribal voting theory will fall apart very quickly.
kichwa,
Your ideals are shared by myself. It doesn't have to be tribal. It could even change in this election. In fact I am ready to consider it a change if Raila gets 30% of Kikuyus, and 20% of Luos vote for Uhuru.
But it hasn't happened yet. There is no single Kenyan election in history that can be explained in coherent terms without taking tribe into account. It's a bit like race in America. The history of American can be summed up as the history of the African American question.
Kikuyus have had two distinct leaders namely Kibaki and Uhuru. It's quite possible you will find lots of infighting among Okoyus post Uhuru whether he wins or not because it's clear he is not running again.
Baba should he lose and quit, you will see the same. But if he doesn't quit, then he remains your leader till 2022.
Tribe is not a stereotype, it is a reality any politician ignores to their detriment.
Btw have you noticed that deputy governors tend to be of different tribes from the governors in nonhomogeneous counties?
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Windy: That is exactly my point " there are other factors that determine how the tribe will vote" but it is hard to pin those factors down so we just say-Kenyans vote along tribal lines, bacuase its a low lying fruit of an explanation. If you substitute Ouru and Raila with any kikuyu or luo, you cannot guarantee the same tribal numbers as the two would get. It takes a long time to get to where Ouru and Raila are and I am not sure we will ever have leaders who have that level of tribal vote mobilization again. I doubt whether Ruto will ever be able to mobilize the Kalenjin in 2022 the same way Ouru and Raila mobilized the kikuyu and the luo. The phenomenon we are witnessing is therefore the exception and not the rule.
Kichwa,
There are other factors that can determine how the tribes will vote. Most Luhyas figured Mudavadi was unviable, and opted for the next best option. The same reason Orengo had no luck in his backyard in 2002. You need to be viable to attract the tribe.
I know it's hypothetical, but not unreasonable, that if the madimoni issue did not arise and Mudavadi became the Jubilant candidate, he would have mopped the floor in western with Raila.
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RED: That is the "homeboy" phenomenon. In the US, if you are from the North you need a VP from the South.
That is because tribe in Kenya is very conspicuous and that is what people see first. If you buy a red car, you will see a lot of red cars and start theorizing that a lot of people are buying red cars. If you lose a close family member in a road accident, you will hear people say that " a lot of people are dying in road accident's these days". After every election, it is much easier to come up with a tribal pattern of how people voted and ignore the ideas which drove them to do so. In 2002 it is much easier to just say "Luos voted for Kibaki because Raila told them to" than "Luo's voted for Kibaki because they were tired of Moi/Kanu rule". In 2010 Ruto convinced Kalenjins the New Katiba was not good for them and that is why they voted against it. The next question is therefore, why was Ruto able to do that. The answer is that because he is one of them and they trust him to tell him the truth. I also stand a better chance of selling to my family members and my friends an insurance policy than a stranger because they trust me. However, this does not mean they will buy anything I sell them-I just stand a better chance. So Raila, and Ouru, based on their standing in the luo and Kikuyu communities, stand a better chance of selling their policies to these group. However substitute Raila and Ouru with any kikuyu or luo and the story will be different. We know how long it took Raila or even Ouru to consolidate their tribal leadership. When Ouru and Raila leave the political scene, this tribal voting theory will fall apart very quickly.
kichwa,
Your ideals are shared by myself. It doesn't have to be tribal. It could even change in this election. In fact I am ready to consider it a change if Raila gets 30% of Kikuyus, and 20% of Luos vote for Uhuru.
But it hasn't happened yet. There is no single Kenyan election in history that can be explained in coherent terms without taking tribe into account. It's a bit like race in America. The history of American can be summed up as the history of the African American question.
Kikuyus have had two distinct leaders namely Kibaki and Uhuru. It's quite possible you will find lots of infighting among Okoyus post Uhuru whether he wins or not because it's clear he is not running again.
Baba should he lose and quit, you will see the same. But if he doesn't quit, then he remains your leader till 2022.
Tribe is not a stereotype, it is a reality any politician ignores to their detriment.
Btw have you noticed that deputy governors tend to be of different tribes from the governors in nonhomogeneous counties?
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Kichwa's theory that the tribe will crumble post-Uhuru and -Raila is the primary reason I will be voting NASA for PORK. The Jubilee lineup - run meticulously by Ruto - is based purely on ethnic dealing. The NASA plan of Kalonzo taking over in 2022 will be dismissed if Raila wins. I calculate that a NASA win would upend the tribal arrangements in both camps :- Ruto goes back to the drawing board as Isaac and Gideon descend on him; Kalonzo eats humble pie as both the power sharing and handover fail to materialize. A NASA victory would be a disruption of tribal voting for the better. Now 2022 would be interesting. It feels like a fantasy sometimes.
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RED: That is the "homeboy" phenomenon. In the US, if you are from the North you need a VP from the South.
That is because tribe in Kenya is very conspicuous and that is what people see first. If you buy a red car, you will see a lot of red cars and start theorizing that a lot of people are buying red cars. If you lose a close family member in a road accident, you will hear people say that " a lot of people are dying in road accident's these days". After every election, it is much easier to come up with a tribal pattern of how people voted and ignore the ideas which drove them to do so. In 2002 it is much easier to just say "Luos voted for Kibaki because Raila told them to" than "Luo's voted for Kibaki because they were tired of Moi/Kanu rule". In 2010 Ruto convinced Kalenjins the New Katiba was not good for them and that is why they voted against it. The next question is therefore, why was Ruto able to do that. The answer is that because he is one of them and they trust him to tell him the truth. I also stand a better chance of selling to my family members and my friends an insurance policy than a stranger because they trust me. However, this does not mean they will buy anything I sell them-I just stand a better chance. So Raila, and Ouru, based on their standing in the luo and Kikuyu communities, stand a better chance of selling their policies to these group. However substitute Raila and Ouru with any kikuyu or luo and the story will be different. We know how long it took Raila or even Ouru to consolidate their tribal leadership. When Ouru and Raila leave the political scene, this tribal voting theory will fall apart very quickly.
kichwa,
Your ideals are shared by myself. It doesn't have to be tribal. It could even change in this election. In fact I am ready to consider it a change if Raila gets 30% of Kikuyus, and 20% of Luos vote for Uhuru.
But it hasn't happened yet. There is no single Kenyan election in history that can be explained in coherent terms without taking tribe into account. It's a bit like race in America. The history of American can be summed up as the history of the African American question.
Kikuyus have had two distinct leaders namely Kibaki and Uhuru. It's quite possible you will find lots of infighting among Okoyus post Uhuru whether he wins or not because it's clear he is not running again.
Baba should he lose and quit, you will see the same. But if he doesn't quit, then he remains your leader till 2022.
Tribe is not a stereotype, it is a reality any politician ignores to their detriment.
Btw have you noticed that deputy governors tend to be of different tribes from the governors in nonhomogeneous counties?
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You are not saying homeboy mentality is Tribe, you are saying Tribe is homeboy mentality; a distinction without a difference
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Robina: 2022 will be very different and MOAS will be completely irrelevant because its based on Raila, vs. Ouruto tribal arithmetic 0f 2013. Even if Ruto were to run in 2022 and pick a running mate from central, nobody seriously think he will automatically inherit ouru's GEMA votes. Ruto cannot even guarantee himself the total Kalenjin vote. On the NASA side, if Raila steps aside in 2022 as expected, Kalonzo cannot guarantee himself the 2017 NASA tribal coalition votes. "other factors" will play a major role in shaping the 2022 than the tribal votes. Of course, after the 2022 elections one can always put together a tribal narrative painting a picture/table/bar chart etc depicting a tribal pattern of voting but that pattern will be unique to 2022 and will not be useful to predict the 2027 elections. The so called "other factors" will become more reliable in the near future for predicting presidential elections than tribes.
Kichwa's theory that the tribe will crumble post-Uhuru and -Raila is the primary reason I will be voting NASA for PORK. The Jubilee lineup - run meticulously by Ruto - is based purely on ethnic dealing. The NASA plan of Kalonzo taking over in 2022 will be dismissed if Raila wins. I calculate that a NASA win would upend the tribal arrangements in both camps :- Ruto goes back to the drawing board as Isaac and Gideon descend on him; Kalonzo eats humble pie as both the power sharing and handover fail to materialize. A NASA victory would be a disruption of tribal voting for the better. Now 2022 would be interesting. It feels like a fantasy sometimes.
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Yes Kichwa. The tribe factor will lose weight progressively any which way. I am basing my choice on the shorter path. My childhood bff used to say - when after the news broadcast the channel overlooked the weather forecast - that tomorrow there would be no weather. That's the MOAS narrative.
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Robina, I think you are the free-est spirit on this board. You truly have no loyalties. :D Kudoz.
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:* :* :*
Robina, I think you are the free-est spirit on this board. You truly have no loyalties. :D Kudoz.
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Robina: 2022 will be very different and MOAS will be completely irrelevant because its based on Raila, vs. Ouruto tribal arithmetic 0f 2013. Even if Ruto were to run in 2022 and pick a running mate from central, nobody seriously think he will automatically inherit ouru's GEMA votes. Ruto cannot even guarantee himself the total Kalenjin vote. On the NASA side, if Raila steps aside in 2022 as expected, Kalonzo cannot guarantee himself the 2017 NASA tribal coalition votes. "other factors" will play a major role in shaping the 2022 than the tribal votes. Of course, after the 2022 elections one can always put together a tribal narrative painting a picture/table/bar chart etc depicting a tribal pattern of voting but that pattern will be unique to 2022 and will not be useful to predict the 2027 elections. The so called "other factors" will become more reliable in the near future for predicting presidential elections than tribes.
Kichwa's theory that the tribe will crumble post-Uhuru and -Raila is the primary reason I will be voting NASA for PORK. The Jubilee lineup - run meticulously by Ruto - is based purely on ethnic dealing. The NASA plan of Kalonzo taking over in 2022 will be dismissed if Raila wins. I calculate that a NASA win would upend the tribal arrangements in both camps :- Ruto goes back to the drawing board as Isaac and Gideon descend on him; Kalonzo eats humble pie as both the power sharing and handover fail to materialize. A NASA victory would be a disruption of tribal voting for the better. Now 2022 would be interesting. It feels like a fantasy sometimes.
There will be tribal formations in 2022 just as are now.
In 2002, Tribe was King. Tribal chiefs in Kanu bolted and the cake crumbled.
In 2007, Kalonzo stuck with his Kambas
In 2013, MaDVD ran with a serious chunk of Luhyas
In 2017, Babu has both Kalonzo's 2007 and MaDVD's 2013 chunk
In 2022, inability (if at all) of Ruto to marshal his bloc &/ Mt Kenya's failure to rally behind one won't make it less tribal; it'll only mean tribes will revolve around others on top of the current if not totally on others.
Tribes are not individuals, tribes rally around individuals, around their own
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Kenya is made up of tribes and therefore there will always be an identifiable tribal pattern if you look for it specifically. What we are talking about is that there is no tribal formula that you can use to predict future elections. The tribal voting patterns was different for 2002, 2005, 2007 , 2010 and 2013.
Robina: 2022 will be very different and MOAS will be completely irrelevant because its based on Raila, vs. Ouruto tribal arithmetic 0f 2013. Even if Ruto were to run in 2022 and pick a running mate from central, nobody seriously think he will automatically inherit ouru's GEMA votes. Ruto cannot even guarantee himself the total Kalenjin vote. On the NASA side, if Raila steps aside in 2022 as expected, Kalonzo cannot guarantee himself the 2017 NASA tribal coalition votes. "other factors" will play a major role in shaping the 2022 than the tribal votes. Of course, after the 2022 elections one can always put together a tribal narrative painting a picture/table/bar chart etc depicting a tribal pattern of voting but that pattern will be unique to 2022 and will not be useful to predict the 2027 elections. The so called "other factors" will become more reliable in the near future for predicting presidential elections than tribes.
Kichwa's theory that the tribe will crumble post-Uhuru and -Raila is the primary reason I will be voting NASA for PORK. The Jubilee lineup - run meticulously by Ruto - is based purely on ethnic dealing. The NASA plan of Kalonzo taking over in 2022 will be dismissed if Raila wins. I calculate that a NASA win would upend the tribal arrangements in both camps :- Ruto goes back to the drawing board as Isaac and Gideon descend on him; Kalonzo eats humble pie as both the power sharing and handover fail to materialize. A NASA victory would be a disruption of tribal voting for the better. Now 2022 would be interesting. It feels like a fantasy sometimes.
There will be tribal formations in 2022 just as are now.
In 2002, Tribe was King. Tribal chiefs in Kanu bolted and the cake crumbled.
In 2007, Kalonzo stuck with his Kambas
In 2013, MaDVD ran with a serious chunk of Luhyas
In 2017, Babu has both Kalonzo's 2007 and MaDVD's 2013 chunk
In 2022, inability (if at all) of Ruto to marshal his bloc &/ Mt Kenya's failure to rally behind one won't make it less tribal; it'll only mean tribes will revolve around others on top of the current if not totally on others.
Tribes are not individuals, tribes rally around individuals, around their own
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Kenya is made up of tribes and therefore there will always be an identifiable tribal pattern if you look for it specifically. What we are talking about is that there is no tribal formula that you can use to predict future elections. The tribal voting patterns was different for 2002, 2005, 2007 , 2010 and 2013.
Robina: 2022 will be very different and MOAS will be completely irrelevant because its based on Raila, vs. Ouruto tribal arithmetic 0f 2013. Even if Ruto were to run in 2022 and pick a running mate from central, nobody seriously think he will automatically inherit ouru's GEMA votes. Ruto cannot even guarantee himself the total Kalenjin vote. On the NASA side, if Raila steps aside in 2022 as expected, Kalonzo cannot guarantee himself the 2017 NASA tribal coalition votes. "other factors" will play a major role in shaping the 2022 than the tribal votes. Of course, after the 2022 elections one can always put together a tribal narrative painting a picture/table/bar chart etc depicting a tribal pattern of voting but that pattern will be unique to 2022 and will not be useful to predict the 2027 elections. The so called "other factors" will become more reliable in the near future for predicting presidential elections than tribes.
Kichwa's theory that the tribe will crumble post-Uhuru and -Raila is the primary reason I will be voting NASA for PORK. The Jubilee lineup - run meticulously by Ruto - is based purely on ethnic dealing. The NASA plan of Kalonzo taking over in 2022 will be dismissed if Raila wins. I calculate that a NASA win would upend the tribal arrangements in both camps :- Ruto goes back to the drawing board as Isaac and Gideon descend on him; Kalonzo eats humble pie as both the power sharing and handover fail to materialize. A NASA victory would be a disruption of tribal voting for the better. Now 2022 would be interesting. It feels like a fantasy sometimes.
There will be tribal formations in 2022 just as are now.
In 2002, Tribe was King. Tribal chiefs in Kanu bolted and the cake crumbled.
In 2007, Kalonzo stuck with his Kambas
In 2013, MaDVD ran with a serious chunk of Luhyas
In 2017, Babu has both Kalonzo's 2007 and MaDVD's 2013 chunk
In 2022, inability (if at all) of Ruto to marshal his bloc &/ Mt Kenya's failure to rally behind one won't make it less tribal; it'll only mean tribes will revolve around others on top of the current if not totally on others.
Tribes are not individuals, tribes rally around individuals, around their own
1. You don't look for obvious stuff
2. That's a wish, I wish there won't but I know there will
3. Your inability to predict election patterns based on tribe doesn't mean they don't exist
What ails you, our predictably tribal patterns?
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On Jubilee's side, only the kikuyu vote may hold as in 2013. The rest, including the GEMA and Kalenjin vote may change significantly enough to deny Ouru victory which was once bailed as assured by pundito. Ouruto supporters cling to the tribal voting theory because that is their only hope. If the 2013 tribal voting pattern crumbles then they loose. The last two weeks are very dangerous for them because huge votes from a once considered stronghold may move.
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You never tire. Hope truly springs eternal. We had the same same conversation until the eve of 2013 when you lost.
On Jubilee's side, only the kikuyu vote may hold as in 2013. The rest, including the GEMA and Kalenjin vote may change significantly enough to deny Ouru victory which was once bailed as assured by pundito. Ouruto supporters cling to the tribal voting theory because that is their only hope. If the 2013 tribal voting pattern crumbles then they loose. The last two weeks are very dangerous for them because huge votes from a once considered stronghold may move.
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On Jubilee's side, only the kikuyu vote may hold as in 2013. The rest, including the GEMA and Kalenjin vote may change significantly enough to deny Ouru victory which was once bailed as assured by pundito. Ouruto supporters cling to the tribal voting theory because that is their only hope. If the 2013 tribal voting pattern crumbles then they loose. The last two weeks are very dangerous for them because huge votes from a once considered stronghold may move.
It's quite clear the homeboy voting nickname is just an utopia you've created to run away from our tribal reality.
What you miss is that in 2022, Tribe may land a Luo in State House.
So bitterness because it is now working against you is not exactly wise.
Tribe helped Moi in 92 and 97 before taking him (his project) in 2002