Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on May 28, 2017, 03:21:44 PM
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2013 turn out was an absolutel blow out. Nationally about 83-86% of registered voters turned up to vote - which is as impressive as those dictatorship election where winner get 99% of the vote. This really helped Raila avoid an embarrassing defeat (he gained 3% from MOAS 2013 on turn out itself - where I had used historical average turn out) and Uhuru similarly lost about 3% to settle at 50.5%.
2013 turn out will be hard to replicate leave alone improve. I think part of the reason people turned up in such number in my view was because you didn't need voter card +ID to vote - as long as you info was in biometric register. In my station I remember many people voting although their details would appear in Lamu. The collapse of those machines probably gave a free for all for people to vote as long as they had IDS.
Most counties averaged 86% - except for Luo, Kalenjin and Kikuyu strongholds (averaged 92%) - and only these five were "bad"
Turkana (76%).
Kwale(72%).
Mombasa (66%).
Kilifi(65%).
If NASA were to improve turn out in those areas to say 86% - they could gain 1% - move from 46% to 47% with Jubilee dropping to 52%. I believe MRC/Pwani sio Kenya nonsense dented turn out and without it - they will certainly Improve.
This election is very easy to call as far as ethnic maths goes unlike previous one. Last one we didn't know how Luhya would vote - with MaDVD/Wamalwa versus ODM - now they are basically in one camp, Kambas will vote NASA ( though there is lot of noise), Luo of course, most of Gusii& Coast will vote NASA.
Jubilee will retain it's bulwark of GEMA+Kalenjin which when you factor high registration + high turn out - gives Jubilee about 44%! - They only need to find 6% from the entire country.
The battleground counties are fewer this time round - the usual culprits - of sparely settled arid and semi-arid northern kenya.
Note if turn out was to drop to historical average of 72% - then expect Jubilee win to increase by 3% - to 56%.
If biometric machine work & manual backup is not deployed - we also see drop in turn out in Kalenjin, Luo and Kikuyu stronghold - where I think lots of ballot stuff maybe happening - meaning Jubilee will be in trouble - Homabay,Muranga and Nyandarua had eye-brow raising 94% turn out.
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The weakness with your hypothesis is that Jubilee has NOT retained its base. It is losing it as we speak. Bomet is gone. There will be no votes in Narok with Tunai going home (despite his appealing to ethnicity). Kajiado is gone (Ole Sakuda publicly defected yesterday and that hapless Ole Lenku guy - is a shame and a gift to NASA).
Turkana is gone and keep an ear to the ground West Pokot and Baringo are both out of Jubilee.
You are right vote suppression was carried out with the manufactured MRC threat which saw massive GSU deployment and harassment of voters in Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River and parts of Taveta. We know they will embark on that game in Western soon. It will be contained.
So generally it is a lie that Jubilee has kept its vote. It is something you must say to feel good but it is NOT backed by evidence.
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Hey Mr Omollo,
Try to put % - otherwise I don't know where Bomet is gone - I was there recently.
1) I come from Bomet - I can tell for free that Isaac Ruto will be beaten 85% versus 15% for governor seat - but NASA will fair worse - I generously gave them 10% - but I doubt they'll hit that. Right now the few Isaac supporters are jumping ship - including his county ministers. NASA or Raila is just anathema amongst the Kipsigis. Everytime Isaac shouts NASA - he is bleeding 10000 votes - from about 30% he had recently and by election time he'll be well done. He should ask kina Franklin & Margerer.
2) Kajiado - is now more an extension of Nairobi - more than half of Kajiado votes are non-masaai - Sakuda lost Jubilee nomination & is of course bitter like many who lost the hotly contested Jubilee nomination - unlike ODM where folks got direct ticket. The battle in Kajiado is btw Ole Lenku (who come from largest maasai clan in Kajiado) and has support of Kikuyu diaspora (huge). Nkendienye got a free pass last time after Ole Koros was bared for having dodgy degree -and despite Ole Nkaissery (very respected in Kajiado south) holding out with Raila - Jubilee swept all seats in Kajiado except Nkaissery's in 2013 and Uhuru won by 60%. ODM "winning" that by-election after Jubilee nomination was bungled, Jubilee lose crossed over to ODM & other candidates conspired against the winner is probably what is lying to you. Jubilee will sweep Kajiado..there is no Gen NKaissery that will remain.
3) I don't expect any change significant change in Kajiado - but I think winning Gen Nkaissery give Uhuru another 5-10% - coz like I said Kajiado is now mostly the bedroom of Nairobi.
4) Turkana - Jubilee has advantage here - all former Mps,women rep & senator John Munyes (except Nanok & one single MP) decamped to Jubilee- Munyes esp bring in 30% to add to Jubilee 30% [Thanks to Senate Speaker Ethuro]- making Jubiklee go 60% and NASA will struggle with 30% - but with Turkana boy EKuru Aokot also in the run for PORK - I think both NASA & Jubilee will lose 10% to him. So Jubilee 50% of Turkana. Split Turkana into 3 regions - just know Munyes, Nanok & Ethuro control each - and do the maths.
5) West Pokot - 23% that CORD got is gone - those were due to Raila having minister from Pokot - now the battle there is really btw KANU & Jubilee. I know when you hold a single rally as NASA where some Pokot is holding NASA banner upside down - you go ahead and say West Pokot & Baringo is gone. Jubilee will carry West Pokot by about 90%.
6) Baringo is of course Jubilee - it the battle btw KANU & Jubilee (90% plus) - perhaps a few disgruntled votes in Tiaty (registered 15,000) may hate Jubilee whose send long overdue military and police hammers down there.
4) Narok - NASA will fair worse than when they had Ntimama and brigade - last time most Maasai voted for Raila- now it's Purko versus the rest of maasai+diaspora (kipsigis are nearly 40% of Narok) and Kikuyus (5%). Ole Tunai will retain his seat because the Purkos not only have two candidates (Ntutu & Nasa's Ole Lempaka) but coz they've irked every non-purko with their entitlement. Jubilee nomination in Narok were very competitive. ODM I had no takes.
So just reply with you figures - and we wait for 2 months - come here and then say like Kichwa & company said in 2013 & like you said - I was part of the rigging :)
The weakness with your hypothesis is that Jubilee has NOT retained its base. It is losing it as we speak. Bomet is gone. There will be no votes in Narok with Tunai going home (despite his appealing to ethnicity). Kajiado is gone (Ole Sakuda publicly defected yesterday and that hapless Ole Lenku guy - is a shame and a gift to NASA).
Turkana is gone and keep an ear to the ground West Pokot and Baringo are both out of Jubilee.
You are right vote suppression was carried out with the manufactured MRC threat which saw massive GSU deployment and harassment of voters in Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River and parts of Taveta. We know they will embark on that game in Western soon. It will be contained.
So generally it is a lie that Jubilee has kept its vote. It is something you must say to feel good but it is NOT backed by evidence.
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That is serious that Kikuyus and kalenjins have 44 percent of vote..that makes it almost impossible to beat jubilee. The biggest question is why have our politics remained so tribal that nothing changes?
Raila has a mountain to climb.
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GEMA+Kalenjin. That include Meru+Embus+Tharakas+Mbeeres. That was figure before 2013 - on account of registered votes and most likely to turn up.Other ethnic did improve their turn out game in 2013 - and gap reduce to less than 10% from the usual more than 30%. For instance previously about 55-60% of Luhyas/Gusii would turn up compared to 90% of Luo/Kalenjin/GEMA.
That is serious that Kikuyus and kalenjins have 44 percent of vote..that makes it almost impossible to beat jubilee. The biggest question is why have our politics remained so tribal that nothing changes?
Raila has a mountain to climb.
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Pundit
I don't like to cook figures. I respect them so much as to treat them with respect. If I give you a figure, I also have to state how it was arrived at and give you an opportunity to independently arrive at the same.
So you figures about Bomet mean nothing. I am like I said also invested in Bomet. I have my ears to the ground and I can assure you Isaac Ruto's influence grows every day. Please separate your dislike for the man and the reality on the ground. That can color simple facts.
Turkana has one ISSUE: Oil. The Tumbocrats you list are ALL on the wrong side of it. It is known that they were bought so that "Kikuyus" can use them to steal Turkana Oil. Now when you figure that out and include in your calculations, I will take you seriously.
Another mistake you make is to believe that Munyes has own support independent of CORD. Any non CORD support in Turkana went to Ruto's wave. Munyes won because of CORD. He goes to Jubilee with nothing. You may have noticed the silence of your stooges in Turkana. That is because they too have embraced Nanok's agenda which is anti-jubilee.
Ekuru Aukot is a Jubilee Project to minimize the NASA vote just like Abduba is for Marsabit etc
Nkaissery is a spent force heavily invested in his corruption. He lost the art of persuasion and now believes in force. However the important thing here is Jubilee is again relying on unpopular Tumbocrats and mistaking that for support. I too have direct contacts in Kajiado.
The Kikuyu population is double registered in Kajiado and Nairobi/ Kiambu. If the register is cleaned (I hope you are aware Ruto's man was bundled out two days ago while hiding 2.9 fake voters) they can only vote in one place. I have a feeling the money in Nairobi and Kiambu will trump all else. Even then their numbers are not that many.
The loss of ODM in Kajiado arose from multiple candidates running on the CORD ticket. If it happens again, well NASA will have few MPs in Kajiado but take the main seats and get majority of the Presidential vote. Ole Lenku and Katika Ole Matiti are going nowhere.
Ntimama did not campaign for CORD. His daughter was already in Jubilee and he knew his time was up. He just made appearances but was a Jubilee man. So it makes a much greater difference that some of his children are in NASA while a daughter is half inside and half out. Like I said NAROK is now NASA and you better prepare for it. We know dawa ya Tunai.
The Final result:
NASA (Raila) : 53%
Jubilee (Uhuru): 45%
This will end in the first round.
We expect Jubilee to try some games and try to rig. But we pretty much have tamed 80% of their game. The Database is still a problem. The NIS still has access through operatives stationed in the IEBC secretariat. Once we knock them all out I will adjust my figures.
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I have been in this game for quite some time enough to cook them figures. I have been predicting Kenyan elections & referendum in rcb, nipate.com & now here for nearly 15 yrs now. Every election or referendum I get folks like you who come up here trying to just quote figures and come election time they all disappear.
Last election - PuaKal , Luo Kenya, Pajero and wakina kichwa - shouted horse and promptly disappeared.
We are only 2 months to d-day. After final register of voters is released - I'll give my final figures as always - and we shall see again - I am pretty sure I'll get a few places wrong - but overally I'll get it right - coz I understand our politics in and out.
I know you'll re-appear here with rigging conspiracy saying I knew the numbers ...like predicted to a dot many of 2013 results - I only missed western (though MaDVD/Wamalwa would do better in BGM&KKM) and the turn out was nothing like I have seen.
Pundit
I don't like to cook figures. I respect them so much as to treat them with respect. If I give you a figure, I also have to state how it was arrived at and give you an opportunity to independently arrive at the same.
So you figures about Bomet mean nothing. I am like I said also invested in Bomet. I have my ears to the ground and I can assure you Isaac Ruto's influence grows every day. Please separate your dislike for the man and the reality on the ground. That can color simple facts.
Turkana has one ISSUE: Oil. The Tumbocrats you list are ALL on the wrong side of it. It is known that they were bought so that "Kikuyus" can use them to steal Turkana Oil. Now when you figure that out and include in your calculations, I will take you seriously.
Another mistake you make is to believe that Munyes has own support independent of CORD. Any non CORD support in Turkana went to Ruto's wave. Munyes won because of CORD. He goes to Jubilee with nothing. You may have noticed the silence of your stooges in Turkana. That is because they too have embraced Nanok's agenda which is anti-jubilee.
Ekuru Aukot is a Jubilee Project to minimize the NASA vote just like Abduba is for Marsabit etc
Nkaissery is a spent force heavily invested in his corruption. He lost the art of persuasion and now believes in force. However the important thing here is Jubilee is again relying on unpopular Tumbocrats and mistaking that for support. I too have direct contacts in Kajiado.
The Kikuyu population is double registered in Kajiado and Nairobi/ Kiambu. If the register is cleaned (I hope you are aware Ruto's man was bundled out two days ago while hiding 2.9 fake voters) they can only vote in one place. I have a feeling the money in Nairobi and Kiambu will trump all else. Even then their numbers are not that many.
The loss of ODM in Kajiado arose from multiple candidates running on the CORD ticket. If it happens again, well NASA will have few MPs in Kajiado but take the main seats and get majority of the Presidential vote. Ole Lenku and Katika Ole Matiti are going nowhere.
Ntimama did not campaign for CORD. His daughter was already in Jubilee and he knew his time was up. He just made appearances but was a Jubilee man. So it makes a much greater difference that some of his children are in NASA while a daughter is half inside and half out. Like I said NAROK is now NASA and you better prepare for it. We know dawa ya Tunai.
The Final result:
NASA (Raila) : 53%
Jubilee (Uhuru): 45%
This will end in the first round.
We expect Jubilee to try some games and try to rig. But we pretty much have tamed 80% of their game. The Database is still a problem. The NIS still has access through operatives stationed in the IEBC secretariat. Once we knock them all out I will adjust my figures.
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Pundit
You got it right in 2002 so did I and many others (No rigging)
In 2007 - You got it right and so did we all - stolen (we all agree on that)
in 2013 - You claim to have got it right. Was not here. I delved in to it and found rigging. You refuse to even entertain the idea and become technicalist referring to the courts and all the officialdom
2017 - You and I are in opposing camps. That is crunch time to determine who between us is The Real Pundit.
Boasting about your past and re-writing it to give yourself invincibility will not help you.
You look at the figures and facts and so do I. More than you. You have an eye for detail so do and I beat you on stamina and singular devotion to a cause any time. So I say may the best Pundit win
The people you mention, PK etc, did not calculate rigging in their propositions. I do. If I reach a point where I am convinced the rigging would overcome NASA or that Jubilee would preponderate, I will state so. For now the momentum is with NASA and Jubilee is in doldrums. Any polls showing Jubilee in 60% now or in future are plain lies.
I would be very surprised if either gets over 55% in the first or second round.
Factors I am watching for:
1. A sudden huge injection of illicit funds by Jubilee which is not countered by NASA
2. A major fallout within NASA which lasts a week before it is settled
3. Vote suppression using violence (indiscriminate nightly mass killings in NASA zones) which has been in the planning since Moi was visited by Mama Ngina
4. Jubilee regains total control over the voter database with the capacity to move voters and mark any as already voted
As of now every one of the people Uhuru trusts with cash to dish out is a thief. So NASA has not had to do much to counter that. However should they use plan D which is to find old KANU networks of old men, we have working antidotes for that as well.
NASA is not making enough noise about the sacking of the IT director and why. That is a disappointment but I think Mudavadi wrote to them with specific demands and we shall await their response.
I have been in this game for quite some time enough to cook them figures. I have been predicting Kenyan elections & referendum in rcb, nipate.com & now here for nearly 15 yrs now. Every election or referendum I get folks like you who come up here trying to just quote figures and come election time they all disappear.
Last election - PuaKal , Luo Kenya, Pajero and wakina kichwa - shouted horse and promptly disappeared.
We are only 2 months to d-day. After final register of voters is released - I'll give my final figures as always - and we shall see again - I am pretty sure I'll get a few places wrong - but overally I'll get it right - coz I understand our politics in and out.
I know you'll re-appear here with rigging conspiracy saying I knew the numbers ...like predicted to a dot many of 2013 results - I only missed western (though MaDVD/Wamalwa would do better in BGM&KKM) and the turn out was nothing like I have seen.
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I have noted the relaxed manner Jubilee folks operate with. The gospel they preach is that they had it tougher in 2013 and they won so 2017 is a walkover.
It is widespread.
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Sure thing. We shall see.
Pundit
You got it right in 2002 so did I and many others (No rigging)
In 2007 - You got it right and so did we all - stolen (we all agree on that)
in 2013 - You claim to have got it right. Was not here. I delved in to it and found rigging. You refuse to even entertain the idea and become technicalist referring to the courts and all the officialdom
2017 - You and I are in opposing camps. That is crunch time to determine who between us is The Real Pundit.
Boasting about your past and re-writing it to give yourself invincibility will not help you.
You look at the figures and facts and so do I. More than you. You have an eye for detail so do and I beat you on stamina and singular devotion to a cause any time. So I say may the best Pundit win
The people you mention, PK etc, did not calculate rigging in their propositions. I do. If I reach a point where I am convinced the rigging would overcome NASA or that Jubilee would preponderate, I will state so. For now the momentum is with NASA and Jubilee is in doldrums. Any polls showing Jubilee in 60% now or in future are plain lies.
I would be very surprised if either gets over 55% in the first or second round.
Factors I am watching for:
1. A sudden huge injection of illicit funds by Jubilee which is not countered by NASA
2. A major fallout within NASA which lasts a week before it is settled
3. Vote suppression using violence (indiscriminate nightly mass killings in NASA zones) which has been in the planning since Moi was visited by Mama Ngina
4. Jubilee regains total control over the voter database with the capacity to move voters and mark any as already voted
As of now every one of the people Uhuru trusts with cash to dish out is a thief. So NASA has not had to do much to counter that. However should they use plan D which is to find old KANU networks of old men, we have working antidotes for that as well.
NASA is not making enough noise about the sacking of the IT director and why. That is a disappointment but I think Mudavadi wrote to them with specific demands and we shall await their response.
I have been in this game for quite some time enough to cook them figures. I have been predicting Kenyan elections & referendum in rcb, nipate.com & now here for nearly 15 yrs now. Every election or referendum I get folks like you who come up here trying to just quote figures and come election time they all disappear.
Last election - PuaKal , Luo Kenya, Pajero and wakina kichwa - shouted horse and promptly disappeared.
We are only 2 months to d-day. After final register of voters is released - I'll give my final figures as always - and we shall see again - I am pretty sure I'll get a few places wrong - but overally I'll get it right - coz I understand our politics in and out.
I know you'll re-appear here with rigging conspiracy saying I knew the numbers ...like predicted to a dot many of 2013 results - I only missed western (though MaDVD/Wamalwa would do better in BGM&KKM) and the turn out was nothing like I have seen.
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That true. First it a re-run of 2013 - when you had 50% - what is there to worry about - and secondly Jubilee been on a campaign spree for 4yrs. I don't think Ruto has left a weekend go to waste without visiting the battleground counties.
I think Uhuru-Mama Ngina are yet to open the floodgates of money - I suspect this will happen anytime now.
Tuju incompetence might complicate the execution and so WSR has to step in and ran the show I suspect.
I have noted the relaxed manner Jubilee folks operate with. The gospel they preach is that they had it tougher in 2013 and they won so 2017 is a walkover.
It is widespread.
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There is another mistake you have made which I failed to mention
You claim that higher turnout will not help NASA. Of course you have based that on already proven false "tyranny of numbers". You erroneously hold that Jubilee Zones have more registered voters than NASA Areas. Now that is another obvious falsehood that I noticed Jubilee supporters are sticking to even as they float in the sea waiting to drown. They just can't let go despite the overwhelming evidence.
When confronted with raw Pre-Audited figures, they begin to talk about a shifting ground that has only benefitted them. When you counter that with facts indicating the same shift has benefitted NASA, they wave it off.
Now Pundit, you are where Raila was in 2011 - 13. You may have wondered why I never joined the campaign. I have this thing called principles. Raila went to Mau Forest in a show of power which became worse when we tried to tell him not to. The arrogance and hubris shock my entire being. I couldn't understand why he was unable to see himself being manipulated by Kibaki.
That came after the Sagana event you alluded to. I have another: After his hospitalization, he allowed himself to be pampered and given a trip to Italy. I suspected it was the pressure of the wife and I got in trouble for openly condemning it.
Now need I show you the parallels? It won't help me or NASA to do so now. But if you shake your head a little you might understand.
Mama Ngina has been on a begging mission to raise money. The trip took her to Moi and Biwott. She has made lots of calls abroad and is considering liquidating some assets "temporarily". Uhuru has been on a money raising spree. He went to India, China and Qatar. All responded well. There is the Eurobond in South Africa which Zuma is insisting on keeping for himself as part of his retirement. I believe the 1/4 portion banked in Brazil will remain for a rainy day or as part of their pension plan.
Check this out. We have you well monitored Pundit. You don't aim to take government from outside.
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Day In Day out, you make so many unsubstantiated claims nobody takes them seriously. I will only respond to the serious stuff...
Issue no 1; TURN OUT
I checked the 2013 turn out - and it was really good everywhere except - Turkana, Mombasa, Kwale & Kilifi. Those are facts. 2013 turn out is off the charts - Luhyas who normally turn up at 50-60% turned up at 86%(Bungoma)-88%(Busia).
The Turn-OUT riddle that will be answered in 9th August is...
1) Can we replicate 2013 turn out (86%), the highest in kenya history - previously the highest we have ever turned out was 72% - this one thing MOAS got wrong .I didn't in my wildest imagination foresee 86% And this was across the board. I am leaning towards IEBC machines failing and when manual backup was allowed - it become free for all? . And Raila(CORD) ought to be thankful for that turn out - coz Uhuru was winning by 53%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2) If turn out goes back to "normal" -Kenya goes to historical average of 70% - then CORD is in BIG trouble - Jubilee core base of GEMA+Kalejin have historical turned out at 85-90%. In the NASA coalition -only Luo Nyanza can boast of similar record. That will knock 3% of NASA sails! Uhuru win goes to 55%.
3) If the answer is yes - then I doubt anybody can top up 2013 - except in those few counties -mainly in COAST - where turn out can be improved - which would add 1% advantage to NASA.
Note: these % are not idle talk - but based on my multivariate regression analysis :).
I must say while doing MOAS - turn out has always been very very hard to model. It pretty easy to assign ethnic votes to various basket but turn out is nearly impossible to nail...which is why in my MOAS I always have +_3% error margin (otherwise if you understand the tribal tapestry of our great nation kenya - you can nail how people will vote - long before they turn up).
Issue No 2: Registration.
Without going into details - the stars if I can remember were Kiambu, Kajiado, Meru - those are Jubilee leaning zones. I can ran comparison per county for newly added votes and see which side did well.
And please don't monitor me. I am simple man.
There is another mistake you have made which I failed to mention
You claim that higher turnout will not help NASA. Of course you have based that on already proven false "tyranny of numbers". You erroneously hold that Jubilee Zones have more registered voters than NASA Areas. Now that is another obvious falsehood that I noticed Jubilee supporters are sticking to even as they float in the sea waiting to drown. They just can't let go despite the overwhelming evidence.
When confronted with raw Pre-Audited figures, they begin to talk about a shifting ground that has only benefitted them. When you counter that with facts indicating the same shift has benefitted NASA, they wave it off.
Now Pundit, you are where Raila was in 2011 - 13. You may have wondered why I never joined the campaign. I have this thing called principles. Raila went to Mau Forest in a show of power which became worse when we tried to tell him not to. The arrogance and hubris shock my entire being. I couldn't understand why he was unable to see himself being manipulated by Kibaki.
That came after the Sagana event you alluded to. I have another: After his hospitalization, he allowed himself to be pampered and given a trip to Italy. I suspected it was the pressure of the wife and I got in trouble for openly condemning it.
Now need I show you the parallels? It won't help me or NASA to do so now. But if you shake your head a little you might understand.
Mama Ngina has been on a begging mission to raise money. The trip took her to Moi and Biwott. She has made lots of calls abroad and is considering liquidating some assets "temporarily". Uhuru has been on a money raising spree. He went to India, China and Qatar. All responded well. There is the Eurobond in South Africa which Zuma is insisting on keeping for himself as part of his retirement. I believe the 1/4 portion banked in Brazil will remain for a rainy day or as part of their pension plan.
Check this out. We have you well monitored Pundit. You don't aim to take government from outside.
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How are the Kamba PORK MOAS for Nairobi and Machakos? given the influence of Dr Mutua and Sonko?
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I think Kambas will vote NASA in about the same big way - although unlike 2013 when they felt embittered by GEMA/Kibaki snubbing Kalonzo - this time they are not as militant or enthusiastic about NASA.
Jubilee will score anything 10(Makueni)-20%(Machakos)(15%) in the 3 Ukambani counties from average of 5-15% (10%) in 2013. All Ruto hard-work comes down to an extra 5% :) coz Muthuma venom is quite deadly when he get going about Kabila mbili...but Jubilee & alied parties will win about half the seat from Wiper(This is Big Ruto Reward). Kalonzo wiper will end up with about 15mps from 28 last time.
Sonko & Mutua will get their votes but I think their influence on PORK will not be much.
How are the Kamba PORK MOAS for Nairobi and Machakos? given the influence of Dr Mutua and Sonko?
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Last election jubilee got a total of 89k votes from kamba community in eastern. They're bound to increase that even if its just marginally. Joe nyagah who's from mbeere which borders the larger ukambani might garner a few kamba votes his constituency has significant kamba population(mutava musyimi).
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Last election jubilee got a total of 89k votes from kamba community in eastern. They're bound to increase that even if its just marginally. Joe nyagah who's from mbeere which borders the larger ukambani might garner a few kamba votes his constituency has significant kamba population(mutava musyimi).
kitui was ngilu..mackakos is now 1/4 cosmopolitan and makueni was 5...but I agree jubilee Will improve in ukambani and wiper is going to fight hard to win seats after kalonzo muthama fight.Tough one.
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Mutua is going up as Kalonzo's influence is fading. Since Ruto is foregone Jubilee top-dog now... it will be interesting to see how Mutua's rise will play into the Uhuru succession. 2017- to 22 will be an exciting season... just like 2008-13 when ODM imploded live-live.
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Mutua will not knockout Kalonzo that easily. It's gonna take long time and lots of money. He has a good start with 900 candidates running on MCC compared to Kalonzo Wiper(600). He also may benefit from Muthama fallout with Kalonzo.
If he retains his governorship and get like 10 MCC Mps, a senator or another governor ..then Kalonzo political grave would have been dug..he will just need to drive the last nail on the coffin.
Mutua is quite delusional like Kidero,Kabogo, Munya & Isaac - and so WSR has to keep them on radar so they don't complicate 2022. For the next 10yrs he'll have to fight to take Ukambani mantle from Kalonzo. That will take some time, money and effort.
If Mutua had some political pedigree - he would be making deal with Muthama - . But I doubt his political pedigree.
Mutua is going up as Kalonzo's influence is fading. Since Ruto is foregone Jubilee top-dog now... it will be interesting to see how Mutua's rise will play into the Uhuru succession. 2017- to 22 will be an exciting season... just like 2008-13 when ODM imploded live-live.
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Mutua is a political conman. He relies on PR so much that every move he makes is calculated based on that.He will lose Machakos seat, all those that will be elected on MCC will defect back to Kalonzo. It easier for them to stay with Kalonzo than try to fight the tide. His only luck is if NASA loses and he wins. As for now he made a costly mistake going against Kalonzo in Ukambani. It is the same mistake that Ruto made in Bomet.
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No he's no conman, just smartly riding on devolution through performance. Unlike Isaac who has nothing to offer. The tide is on Mutua's side. Kalonzo would be redeemed by NASA win... which is not happening. So Mutua has 5yrs to replicate the Maendeleo model "countrywide" (read Ukambani). Come 2022 Raila won't step down for Kalonzo and that will be the last nail on his coffin.
Mutua is a political conman. He relies on PR so much that every move he makes is calculated based on that.He will lose Machakos seat, all those that will be elected on MCC will defect back to Kalonzo. It easier for them to stay with Kalonzo than try to fight the tide. His only luck is if NASA loses and he wins. As for now he made a costly mistake going against Kalonzo in Ukambani. It is the same mistake that Ruto made in Bomet.
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No he's no conman, just smartly riding on devolution through performance. Unlike Isaac who has nothing to offer. The tide is on Mutua's side. Kalonzo would be redeemed by NASA win... which is not happening. So Mutua has 5yrs to replicate the Maendeleo model "countrywide" (read Ukambani). Come 2022 Raila won't step down for Kalonzo and that will be the last nail on his coffin.
Mutua is a political conman. He relies on PR so much that every move he makes is calculated based on that.He will lose Machakos seat, all those that will be elected on MCC will defect back to Kalonzo. It easier for them to stay with Kalonzo than try to fight the tide. His only luck is if NASA loses and he wins. As for now he made a costly mistake going against Kalonzo in Ukambani. It is the same mistake that Ruto made in Bomet.
I've heard from more than one person that Mutua is actually in a lot of trouble. Will wait to see if that is true. But what has made you change your tune re NASA loss? Is Pundit that convincing? :D
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Robina,
There is no actual development that Mutua has really done in Machakos county. MCC is dead on arrival. CCM too has not been able to capture the hearts and minds of People in RV. Mutua should embraced Uhururuto at night and Kalonzo during the day. He should have played his cards like Kidero. His ego mislead him to think he could trounce Kalonzo entrenched machinery that easily.
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Robina,
There is no actual development that Mutua has really done in Machakos county. MCC is dead on arrival. CCM too has not been able to capture the hearts and minds of People in RV. Mutua should embraced Uhururuto at night and Kalonzo during the day. He should have played his cards like Kidero. His ego mislead him to think he could trounce Kalonzo entrenched machinery that easily.
That's what I've heard too, lots of cosmetics and good early P.R. but no true development...at least that's the story that is going round town. I don't know how true it all is but I heard it from more than a few people at home.
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Kadame5,
That is true. I have not even talked to anyone in Machakos or being there but I can see no one defending him right now in terms of performance. If he had performed he would be standing a chance. I think Mutua went wild and wanted to do a lot with very limited funding. He should have concentrated on one area and done it well. Kabogo focused on improving health facilities and it worked well for him. Without this he wouldn't even have a fighting chance against waititu but now people are giving him second look.
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I've heard from more than one person that Mutua is actually in a lot of trouble. Will wait to see if that is true. But what has made you change your tune re NASA loss? Is Pundit that convincing? :D
Not really. Here is someone whose selling point is demonstrable development. I wish him well.
On the other hand, Ruto's adroit strategy will only cement tribalism. Yet he is working it so well. I firmly believe that a Jubilee loss would turn tribalism on its head and give meritocracy a shot. So you can see my disillusionment: I want NASA to win but Pundit's MOAS are hard and cold.
I have no horse this election.
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I've heard from more than one person that Mutua is actually in a lot of trouble. Will wait to see if that is true. But what has made you change your tune re NASA loss? Is Pundit that convincing? :D
Not really. Here is someone whose selling point is demonstrable development. I wish him well.
On the other hand, Ruto's adroit strategy will only cement tribalism. Yet he is working it so well. I firmly believe that a Jubilee loss would turn tribalism on its head and give meritocracy a shot. So you can see my disillusionment: I want NASA to win but Pundit's MOAS are hard and cold.
I have no horse this election.
Well, Pundit is not an idiot, but maybe don't crown him grand prophet just yet. He is not infallible. ;) Me, I've always been ODM but this time I can't vote and have decided to maintain a certain psychological distance and make peace with whatever outcome even though I'm obviously rooting for my guys as usual.
Thing is, I think Kenya split into two some years back. I have not met a single CORD voter who has moved over to Jubilee this time. So I have a hard time believing that people in certain areas have followed Jubilee just because certain leaders have moved this way or that way. I haven't met a single person who has chosen to support Jubilee who did not support it last time. I don't believe NASA will get anything from Bomet either. To me, that sounds like ndoto. I think CORD supporters have never left CORD (now NASA). I don't know a single person who has.
What it'll come down to this time is people showing up to vote or not, assuming there's no IEBC monkeying around. Last time CORD people didn't even register well. It's different this time. So presuming a fairly clean election, I think it comes down to who has a better GOTV strategy.
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I've heard from more than one person that Mutua is actually in a lot of trouble. Will wait to see if that is true. But what has made you change your tune re NASA loss? Is Pundit that convincing? :D
Not really. Here is someone whose selling point is demonstrable development. I wish him well.
On the other hand, Ruto's adroit strategy will only cement tribalism. Yet he is working it so well. I firmly believe that a Jubilee loss would turn tribalism on its head and give meritocracy a shot. So you can see my disillusionment: I want NASA to win but Pundit's MOAS are hard and cold.
I have no horse this election.
Tribalism was cemented in 2007, 2013 and 2017 will just be crowning it as the only standard. One guy called Politicalmaniac who used to post in Jukwaa said this in 2007 " the fate of Kenya rests with Kikuyus and they have the destiny of the country on their hands" I have rephrased his comment. due to Tribalism you can see how hard it is to beat GEMA and Kalenjins.
What would motivate someone from Pokomo, Giriama, or other small communities at coast to get out to vote. They know if they vote for NASA or Jubilee they will still be ignored.
Think how tough it must be from a community like Aembu. They must lay low and make alliance with whichever group that will be in power because without it they will be victimized and lose the little they have.
MOAS really brings it home. I trust Pundit numbers as they have consistently held up. Plus due to nature of his work he has a better understanding Kenya demographics that most of us.
Even with GOTV it is hard for NASA to win.. Correction though on your statement about no changes in CORD support.. I think NASA has gained in Kisii and Western but those gains are not enough to close the margin. Raila may get about 1% more in central. psychological distance is good in this game, last time although i new the outcome was CORD would lose I still did not take it well
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By the way, what does 'MOAS' stand for? I know it's Pundit's formula but what is it in full?
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By the way, what does 'MOAS' stand for? I know it's Pundit's formula but what is it in full?
Energizer of nipate.com called it the Mother Of All Spreadsheets or something like that.
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Yes it is mother of all spreadsheets.. It been accurate and scientific. Pundit is no longer objective as he is Ruto die hard but I know he will rely on science to deliver his prediction.
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Tribalism was cemented in 2007, 2013 and 2017 will just be crowning it as the only standard. One guy called Politicalmaniac who used to post in Jukwaa said this in 2007 " the fate of Kenya rests with Kikuyus and they have the destiny of the country on their hands" I have rephrased his comment. due to Tribalism you can see how hard it is to beat GEMA and Kalenjins.
What would motivate someone from Pokomo, Giriama, or other small communities at coast to get out to vote. They know if they vote for NASA or Jubilee they will still be ignored.
Think how tough it must be from a community like Aembu. They must lay low and make alliance with whichever group that will be in power because without it they will be victimized and lose the little they have.
MOAS really brings it home. I trust Pundit numbers as they have consistently held up. Plus due to nature of his work he has a better understanding Kenya demographics that most of us.
Imagine if Uhuru lost: he retires and Ruto is left with a mammoth Jubilee that crumbles like a balloon. He goes back to the drawing board, minus the patronage, suddenly RV and GEMA blocks are up for grabs. In such a disruption, tribalism losens its iron grip on Kenya. There has been no president from out of Kikuyu and Kalenjin. We need that.
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A loss by Uhuru will not change tribal Dynamics in Kenya politics it will just postpone it trajectory. Tribal politics won't end any time soon ..in 40 year when Kenya is urbanized and about 40 percent of population is consompolitant then tribalism will cease being a factor. Right now the non tribal Kenyan are still an outlier.
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Well, Pundit is not an idiot, but maybe don't crown him grand prophet just yet. He is not infallible. ;) Me, I've always been ODM but this time I can't vote and have decided to maintain a certain psychological distance and make peace with whatever outcome even though I'm obviously rooting for my guys as usual.
Thing is, I think Kenya split into two some years back. I have not met a single CORD voter who has moved over to Jubilee this time. So I have a hard time believing that people in certain areas have followed Jubilee just because certain leaders have moved this way or that way. I haven't met a single person who has chosen to support Jubilee who did not support it last time. I don't believe NASA will get anything from Bomet either. To me, that sounds like ndoto. I think CORD supporters have never left CORD (now NASA). I don't know a single person who has.
What it'll come down to this time is people showing up to vote or not, assuming there's no IEBC monkeying around. Last time CORD people didn't even register well. It's different this time. So presuming a fairly clean election, I think it comes down to who has a better GOTV strategy.
Pundit is a tribal oracle. He is saying exactly what you have: each side keeps their base and Jubilee wins. See the title.
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Mutua has worked for Machakos but he is done. He just like Isaac picked (bad) cards too early - seems everybody was certain that Kalonzo won't say no to the Jubilee billions. The anti-kikuyu sentiments among the Kamba could be surprisingly higher than the Luos!! This must be what informed/complicated Kalonzo's game plan. NASA has Kamba vote under lock and key if these sentiments persists.
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Day In Day out, you make so many unsubstantiated claims nobody takes them seriously. I will only respond to the serious stuff...
Issue no 1; TURN OUT
I have no problem backing up my claims unchallenged. All you have to do is point out what you need backed up.
I checked the 2013 turn out - and it was really good everywhere except - Turkana, Mombasa, Kwale & Kilifi. Those are facts. 2013 turn out is off the charts - Luhyas who normally turn up at 50-60% turned up at 86%(Bungoma)-88%(Busia).
Let's use the No Show Voter Numbers: These are the top no show counties and which coalition they leaned. 6 0ut of ten were CORD areas representing 540,000 votes versus 200K Jubilee. That points at an active vote suppression
1. Nairobi-318,138-Fifty/Fifty
2. Mombasa-136,429-CORD
3. Kilifi-117,958-CORD
4. Kakamega-92,682-CORD/Amani
5. Kiambu-80,093-Jubilee
6. Nakuru-79,001-Jubilee
7. Machakos-73,018-CORD
8. Kisii-64,283-CORD
9. Bungoma-59,457-CORD
10. Meru-57,446-Jubilee
The Turn-OUT riddle that will be answered in 9th August is...
1) Can we replicate 2013 turn out (86%), the highest in kenya history - previously the highest we have ever turned out was 72% - this one thing MOAS got wrong .I didn't in my wildest imagination foresee 86% And this was across the board. I am leaning towards IEBC machines failing and when manual backup was allowed - it become free for all? . And Raila(CORD) ought to be thankful for that turn out - coz Uhuru was winning by 53%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And where do you pluck 53% from ?
2) If turn out goes back to "normal" -Kenya goes to historical average of 70% - then CORD is in BIG trouble - Jubilee core base of GEMA+Kalenjin have historical turned out at 85-90%. In the NASA coalition -only Luo Nyanza can boast of similar record. That will knock 3% of NASA sails! Uhuru win goes to 55%.
As you note all that is conditional on turnout being higher in Jubilee Strongholds and being low in NASA areas.
What you are not stating is why there should be such a scenario. Is there any factor akin to ICC where kalenjins were told that Raila was saying they were all murderers? How about Kikuyuland where the usual scare-mongering occurred?
Clearly you are upping the possibility of a high turn out and completely ignoring the factors suggesting it may not be that high.
There is also the electronic tinkering which you naturally deny but which we know happens and working hard to see an end to it.
3) If the answer is yes - then I doubt anybody can top up 2013 - except in those few counties -mainly in COAST - where turn out can be improved - which would add 1% advantage to NASA.
This is how the NIS topped up Uhuru (read very carefully because you have moved in to an echo chamber):
1. Having gained access to the IEBC database with administrative authority, Jubilee - NIS raided the database early in the morning and grabbed about 2 million voters from across the country.
2. They did this by indicating that the said voters had already voted. Thus whenever they surfaced at any polling station to vote they would be sent away and told they had already voted. To maximize their gains they targeted CORD areas so that they did not inadvertently grab voters who were already voting for Jubilee
3. "Armed" with these voters, they carefully "transferred" most to other areas where there would be little scrutiny. Here Polling officers could be told what figures to transmit to the IEBC after the elections. They distributed these 2 million votes across the country, making phone calls to Polling officers and ROs to receive and enter the results. In fact CORD only got evidence of some of these (the smaller fraction) from CORD strongholds where they were forced to doctor results after it became impossible to add any more in Jubilee zones without attracting attention or breaking the turnout and registered voters total.
4. The NIS working with the IEBC would then adjust the number of registered voters in a given location to include the new inflated numbers and keep within the "normal" turnout and under the Registered Voters. Hence Only the IEBC could tell how many voters were in any given area.
5. To guard against recounts ordered by activist judges, centres were created where ballots already obtained from friendly printers and augmented by those printed locally (when NIS using a commissioner obtained samples from the printer) they would mark the actual ballots and then deliver them for storage at "secure" locations. One such centre was at Kenyatta University.
It would be harder but not impossible to repeat. They can't set up fake polling stations or inflate figures at existing ones because of the 700 voter limit and the demand that ALL polling stations be published, complete with the number of voters.
Nnote: these % are not idle talk - but based on my multivariate regression analysis :).
I must say while doing MOAS - turn out has always been very very hard to model. It pretty easy to assign ethnic votes to various basket but turn out is nearly impossible to nail...which is why in my MOAS I always have +_3% error margin (otherwise if you understand the tribal tapestry of our great nation kenya - you can nail how people will vote - long before they turn up).
You are trying hard to doctor the process to given you the desired outcome. That can not work.
Issue No 2: Registration.
Without going into details - the stars if I can remember were Kiambu, Kajiado, Meru - those are Jubilee leaning zones. I can ran comparison per county for newly added votes and see which side did well.
And please don't monitor me. I am simple man.
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Mutua has worked for Machakos but he is done. He just like Isaac picked (bad) cards too early - seems everybody was certain that Kalonzo won't say no to the Jubilee billions. The anti-kikuyu sentiments among the Kamba could be surprisingly higher than the Luos!! This must be what informed/complicated Kalonzo's game plan. NASA has Kamba vote under lock and key if these sentiments persists.
I am glad when someone states facts without considering vested interests.
I find it comical reading about Mutua's popularity and how he will beat Kalonzo. When this comes from Pundit, I find it even harder to believe his percentages (the ones he grabs from the polluted Kampala air).
Mutau is going nowhere. Jirongo is going nowhere! Nyaga is going nowhere!
Kalonzo will get the highest share of the vote in Ukambani he has ever gotten - even when he ran for president. He has consolidated his hold, he has Ngilu in the tent and no real opposition to him. He is the King having brought in Jubilee surrogates like Wavinya Ndeti and Kibaki holdover Kibwana. The rest are Jubilee Tumbocrats like Mutambo Joe and Ndile etc. They have zero traction.
Mutua's candidates in Ukambani have changed tactics and are supporting NASA and opposing Jubilee. Several asked him to stay away and when he turned up, they were no show.
Any way, hatuko mbali, Pundit will pay 100 USD to Veritas if Mutua loses. I will pay the same if he wins. Mine will be donated to any charity Veritas chooses.
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Omollo, you are of course obtuse by choice! CORD or NASA base is wider than Jubilee. As you well known Jubilee core is really Kalenjin+GEMA. Historically - I am talking every election or referendum - there are people who always almost turn up to vote - If I recall I'd place Kalenjin top, Kikuyu next, Luo 3rd(only coz they turn up for Raila - and didn't for Kibaki in 02) and Meru+Embu fourth. Whatever the election - Kalenjin always turned up on average 85-90%. It doesn't matter if national average turn out is 50-60% but 90% of kalenjin show up to vote (or well ballot stuffing happens). Historically our national turnout has been around 60-70%. Historically we know the places that don't turn up...North Eastern for obvious reason, COAST, Western and Gusii. These are regions if you study historical trends - have always turn up at 40-60%!.
Now if you want to win election and you're Jubilee - you don't want Gusii, Luhyas, Coast and all the hostile tribes - cranking up their numbers from the usual 55% to 86%
If Jubilee wanted to rig 2013 - clearly they wouldn't have engineered such huge turn out - they know their core base are ever reliable and turn out -
In short - if you're not obtuse - thanks to turn out increasing from 70-72% (in election before 2013) to 86% - Raila gained more votes from western, gusii, coast and other areas - my calculation says he got 3% bump.He would have scored 40%.
If NASA want to win - they need to not only maintain that turn out but crank it up a little harder.
Jubilee have a reliable core base...that only Luos in NASA can rival.
It not rigging that gave 2-Kabila a win - it combination of higher registration & higher voter turn out - that suddenly transform GEMA+Kalenjin into 45% behemoth instead of says 37% - as per the population share!
Now reply with the usual NIS nonsense.
Day In Day out, you make so many unsubstantiated claims nobody takes them seriously. I will only respond to the serious stuff...
Issue no 1; TURN OUT
I have no problem backing up my claims unchallenged. All you have to do is point out what you need backed up.
I checked the 2013 turn out - and it was really good everywhere except - Turkana, Mombasa, Kwale & Kilifi. Those are facts. 2013 turn out is off the charts - Luhyas who normally turn up at 50-60% turned up at 86%(Bungoma)-88%(Busia).
Let's use the No Show Voter Numbers: These are the top no show counties and which coalition they leaned. 6 0ut of ten were CORD areas representing 540,000 votes versus 200K Jubilee. That points at an active vote suppression
1. Nairobi-318,138-Fifty/Fifty
2. Mombasa-136,429-CORD
3. Kilifi-117,958-CORD
4. Kakamega-92,682-CORD/Amani
5. Kiambu-80,093-Jubilee
6. Nakuru-79,001-Jubilee
7. Machakos-73,018-CORD
8. Kisii-64,283-CORD
9. Bungoma-59,457-CORD
10. Meru-57,446-Jubilee
The Turn-OUT riddle that will be answered in 9th August is...
1) Can we replicate 2013 turn out (86%), the highest in kenya history - previously the highest we have ever turned out was 72% - this one thing MOAS got wrong .I didn't in my wildest imagination foresee 86% And this was across the board. I am leaning towards IEBC machines failing and when manual backup was allowed - it become free for all? . And Raila(CORD) ought to be thankful for that turn out - coz Uhuru was winning by 53%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And where do you pluck 53% from ?
2) If turn out goes back to "normal" -Kenya goes to historical average of 70% - then CORD is in BIG trouble - Jubilee core base of GEMA+Kalenjin have historical turned out at 85-90%. In the NASA coalition -only Luo Nyanza can boast of similar record. That will knock 3% of NASA sails! Uhuru win goes to 55%.
As you note all that is conditional on turnout being higher in Jubilee Strongholds and being low in NASA areas.
What you are not stating is why there should be such a scenario. Is there any factor akin to ICC where kalenjins were told that Raila was saying they were all murderers? How about Kikuyuland where the usual scare-mongering occurred?
Clearly you are upping the possibility of a high turn out and completely ignoring the factors suggesting it may not be that high.
There is also the electronic tinkering which you naturally deny but which we know happens and working hard to see an end to it.
3) If the answer is yes - then I doubt anybody can top up 2013 - except in those few counties -mainly in COAST - where turn out can be improved - which would add 1% advantage to NASA.
This is how the NIS topped up Uhuru (read very carefully because you have moved in to an echo chamber):
1. Having gained access to the IEBC database with administrative authority, Jubilee - NIS raided the database early in the morning and grabbed about 2 million voters from across the country.
2. They did this by indicating that the said voters had already voted. Thus whenever they surfaced at any polling station to vote they would be sent away and told they had already voted. To maximize their gains they targeted CORD areas so that they did not inadvertently grab voters who were already voting for Jubilee
3. "Armed" with these voters, they carefully "transferred" most to other areas where there would be little scrutiny. Here Polling officers could be told what figures to transmit to the IEBC after the elections. They distributed these 2 million votes across the country, making phone calls to Polling officers and ROs to receive and enter the results. In fact CORD only got evidence of some of these (the smaller fraction) from CORD strongholds where they were forced to doctor results after it became impossible to add any more in Jubilee zones without attracting attention or breaking the turnout and registered voters total.
4. The NIS working with the IEBC would then adjust the number of registered voters in a given location to include the new inflated numbers and keep within the "normal" turnout and under the Registered Voters. Hence Only the IEBC could tell how many voters were in any given area.
5. To guard against recounts ordered by activist judges, centres were created where ballots already obtained from friendly printers and augmented by those printed locally (when NIS using a commissioner obtained samples from the printer) they would mark the actual ballots and then deliver them for storage at "secure" locations. One such centre was at Kenyatta University.
It would be harder but not impossible to repeat. They can't set up fake polling stations or inflate figures at existing ones because of the 700 voter limit and the demand that ALL polling stations be published, complete with the number of voters.
Nnote: these % are not idle talk - but based on my multivariate regression analysis :).
I must say while doing MOAS - turn out has always been very very hard to model. It pretty easy to assign ethnic votes to various basket but turn out is nearly impossible to nail...which is why in my MOAS I always have +_3% error margin (otherwise if you understand the tribal tapestry of our great nation kenya - you can nail how people will vote - long before they turn up).
You are trying hard to doctor the process to given you the desired outcome. That can not work.
Issue No 2: Registration.
Without going into details - the stars if I can remember were Kiambu, Kajiado, Meru - those are Jubilee leaning zones. I can ran comparison per county for newly added votes and see which side did well.
And please don't monitor me. I am simple man.
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NASA will take Ukambani presidential votes but by slighly lower percentage (2-5% less than 2013) - But Kalonzo will struggle to win the other seats. That I am willing to bet.
I am glad when someone states facts without considering vested interests.
I find it comical reading about Mutua's popularity and how he will beat Kalonzo. When this comes from Pundit, I find it even harder to believe his percentages (the ones he grabs from the polluted Kampala air).
Mutau is going nowhere. Jirongo is going nowhere! Nyaga is going nowhere!
Kalonzo will get the highest share of the vote in Ukambani he has ever gotten - even when he ran for president. He has consolidated his hold, he has Ngilu in the tent and no real opposition to him. He is the King having brought in Jubilee surrogates like Wavinya Ndeti and Kibaki holdover Kibwana. The rest are Jubilee Tumbocrats like Mutambo Joe and Ndile etc. They have zero traction.
Mutua's candidates in Ukambani have changed tactics and are supporting NASA and opposing Jubilee. Several asked him to stay away and when he turned up, they were no show.
Any way, hatuko mbali, Pundit will pay 100 USD to Veritas if Mutua loses. I will pay the same if he wins. Mine will be donated to any charity Veritas chooses.
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GEMA+Kalenjin - roughly have 44% of the registered votes - this coalition is so hard to beat - I pity NASA. And they will crank up the turn out 90%.
Gema+Kalenjin Registered Votes
1 Kiambu 1173593
2 Nakuru 948668
3 Meru 712378
4 Murang’a 590775
5 Nyeri 460806
6 Kericho 379815
7 Kirinyaga 351162
8 Nandi 349340
9 Nyandaua 336322
10 Bomet 325606
11 Embu 315668
12 Laikipia 239497
13 Baringo 227918
14 TharakaNithi 216522
15 ElgeyoMarakwet 178989
16 WestPokot 178989
17 UasinGishu 451485
18 Nairobi 40%
19 Kajiado 30%
20 Narok 40%
21 TranNzoia 40%
Total (8.7M are possibly GEMA+Kalenjin)
44%
Turn out will probably pump this to 46%.
And all Mr Uhuru need to get is 4% nationally.
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Pundit
Let me be candid for once (you guys have less than two months to know you are going so what the heck)
I come from the old school of politics which goes by simple adages. Say for example this: Only real enemies can make peace. Or Friends have no business negotiating peace!
NASA's enemy is NOT Uhuru or Ruto. NASA / Raila has an enemy in the form of the NIS - which goes further to incorporate the State machinery.
The reason Raila has failed several times (even after winning) or if you wish to add Kenneth Matiba, Uhuru Kenyatta (2002) etc, is because they each focused on fighting the shadow while they forgot the real warrior. You can call it Reverse Lwanda Magere Syndrome in Kenyan politics.
Raila should have declared war on those entrenched government institutions that have over the years been fed on an anti-Raila diet. Most of them are easily identifiable by the deep primitive ethnicity within their ranks. The NIS briefly rose from that under Boinnet but Kibaki took it back to what it was before and they could not wait to get rid of Gichangi who tried to maintain the professionalism.
It is now the old killing machine, conducting torture, EJK and black ops. It can never accept Raila willingly. It has to be defeated not won over. The battle for the soul and liberation of Kenya is being fought against the NIS and all the institutions it coopts - safaricom, DCI, NPSC, IEBC, Ministry of Interior, Registration of Birth and Deaths, ID Cards, Passport offices etc
Now on the matter you raise about turnout. It is simple: Until we have a clean register with established numbers of registered voters, there is no way you can extrapolate 2017 from 2013. I too have a template waiting until there is something reliable.
Now while waiting for that, I have tried to explain to you that regardless of the polls, MOAS, Estimates etc, rigging can always turn everything upside down. I have indicated that my own "MOAS" will take into consideration the situation up to where we would be. If by then I am convinced that we have defeated all the rigging schemes and destroyed their ability to reenact them, I will give you my final % of NASA victory.
However if those networks would prove too hard to dismantle, I will concede way ahead of everybody.
The difference between me and you is that you believe there is no rigging. I know there was rigging in 2013 and there are efforts to repeat.
Omollo, you are of course obtuse by choice! CORD or NASA base is wider than Jubilee. As you well known Jubilee core is really Kalenjin+GEMA. Historically - I am talking every election or referendum - there are people who always almost turn up to vote - If I recall I'd place Kalenjin top, Kikuyu next, Luo 3rd(only coz they turn up for Raila - and didn't for Kibaki in 02) and Meru+Embu fourth. Whatever the election - Kalenjin always turned up on average 85-90%. It doesn't matter if national average turn out is 50-60% but 90% of kalenjin show up to vote (or well ballot stuffing happens). Historically our national turnout has been around 60-70%. Historically we know the places that don't turn up...North Eastern for obvious reason, COAST, Western and Gusii. These are regions if you study historical trends - have always turn up at 40-60%!.
Now if you want to win election and you're Jubilee - you don't want Gusii, Luhyas, Coast and all the hostile tribes - cranking up their numbers from the usual 55% to 86%
If Jubilee wanted to rig 2013 - clearly they wouldn't have engineered such huge turn out - they know their core base are ever reliable and turn out -
In short - if you're not obtuse - thanks to turn out increasing from 70-72% (in election before 2013) to 86% - Raila gained more votes from western, gusii, coast and other areas - my calculation says he got 3% bump.He would have scored 40%.
If NASA want to win - they need to not only maintain that turn out but crank it up a little harder.
Jubilee have a reliable core base...that only Luos in NASA can rival.
It not rigging that gave 2-Kabila a win - it combination of higher registration & higher voter turn out - that suddenly transform GEMA+Kalenjin into 45% behemoth instead of says 37% - as per the population share!
Now reply with the usual NIS nonsense.
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GEMA+Kalenjin - roughly have 44% of the registered votes - this coalition is so hard to beat - I pity NASA. And they will crank up the turn out 90%.
Gema+Kalenjin Registered Votes
1 Kiambu 1173593
2 Nakuru 948668
3 Meru 712378
4 Murang’a 590775
5 Nyeri 460806
6 Kericho 379815
7 Kirinyaga 351162
8 Nandi 349340
9 Nyandaua 336322
10 Bomet 325606
11 Embu 315668
12 Laikipia 239497
13 Baringo 227918
14 TharakaNithi 216522
15 ElgeyoMarakwet 178989
16 WestPokot 178989
17 UasinGishu 451485
18 Nairobi 40%
19 Kajiado 30%
20 Narok 40%
21 TranNzoia 40%
Total (8.7M are possibly GEMA+Kalenjin)
44%
Turn out will probably pump this to 46%.
And all Mr Uhuru need to get is 4% nationally.
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(http://omollosview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/NASA-Voters1.jpg)
(http://omollosview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Jubilee_Numbers.jpg)
(http://omollosview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/NASA-Jubilee_Battleground.jpg)
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Crap.Nairobi is NASA leaning :) indeed - when Raila got 48% and Uhuru 46% last time.
(http://omollosview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/NASA-Voters1.jpg)
(http://omollosview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Jubilee_Numbers.jpg)
(http://omollosview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/NASA-Jubilee_Battleground.jpg)
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You can take 50% of Nairobi. Doesn't make a dent on NASA numbers
Crap.Nairobi is NASA leaning :) indeed - when Raila got 48% and Uhuru 46% last time.
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You can take 50% of Nairobi. Doesn't make a dent on NASA numbers
Crap.Nairobi is NASA leaning :) indeed - when Raila got 48% and Uhuru 46% last time.
I'm not as optimistic as you, so those blue-leaning battle-ground votes, 3.27 M, should be halved IMO. So assuming your figures are correct: Jubilee 5.8 + 0.8 + 1. 6 would be 8.2 to 8.4 M, and NASA would be 8.6 + 1.6 M which is about 10.2 M; If you're right NASA has 2 M lead and people need to come out and vote. Me, I don't know, I'm just praying for Jubilee to go home on 08/08 and leaving things to God.
But someone I trust at home did his own numbers using 2013 voting patterns but based on the current register and told me that NASA and Jubilee in-the-bag votes are 7.2 M for Jubilee and 8.1 M for NASA; that true battle ground votes are around 4 M, with NASA leading Jubilee. This is why I thought it'll come down to GOTV, because NASA has a big lead in terms of raw numbers but Jubilee has reliable voter turn-out historically. I did not see his chart, so I'm just going off of the general figures but it is interesting the different projections people make from the current register and 2013 voting patterns. One thing I do know, he did not count Bomet as "battle-ground"...it is not. It's Jubilee. He simply counted on 2013 voting patterns to more or less hold.
We will see soon enough. As a NASA supporter, I obviously want your numbers to be true, hehehe..... :D
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I have not counted Bomet in NASA. I have given it to Jubilee but I belîeve NASA will get some votes over there.
Instead of simply listing battlegrounds, I listed in accordance with where they are leaning. Nairobi for instance is leaning NASA because the majority vote has always gone against the Government of the day - as is the practice in all African capital cities. But since Pundit wants it, I conceded.
If you take all those leaning and add to whichever coalition they are leaning towards, you will get the grand totals which in effect show NASA with a clear majority. I do not agree that turnout will not benefit NASA.
The problem with Pundit's conclusions is that he fell for the media sensationalism which claimed that Jubilee had registered more voters than NASA. The raw figures later showed that NASA areas had more voters than Jubilee areas. He has not updated his facts.
However we are all waiting for the audited figures.
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Where are you guys getting your data. The registered voters, constituencies etc?
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Omollo...try basic maths classes again...and add jubilee column with help of manual calculator.That is crap.You forgot mandera.Assigned bomet and westpokot to battleground while moving garisa and wajir to cord stronghold.tranzoia is not nasa stronghold...it battleground
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No matter which way you slice and dice these numbers Jubilee will still come short by 1.5 - 2 million votes. jubilee they are done I hope they go home quietly without collapsing the shillings
the same way youth for Kanu did in 1992. Dollars bank account looks attractive
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I went through the numbers: it's true, the additions on Jubilee column should be slightly over 7M, roughly 7 M flat, not 5.7.
If I can attempt/suggest my own rudimentary MOAS formula, I'd say first of all that W.Pokot, Bomet and Mandera (around 670 K or 0.67M) are clear Jubilee based on 2013 patterns; Mandera had like 93 % Uhuru votes. So I would count that as Jubilee, bringing it to around 7.7 M. If we throw in Isiolo and Samburu, it'll be just slightly under 8 M.
For NASA, Western and Nyanza, Coast and Ukambani together are also slightly under 8 M.
That leaves battle ground as Nai, Kajiado, Narok, T. Nzoia, Turkana (debatable but we'll leave it here for now), Garissa, Wajir, Maarsabit, Lamu, which is roughly 3.8 M and if 2013 patterns hold, NASA has a clear edge i this category, it's not exactly 50/50.
NASA has more raw numbers but the gap is not as big as initially thought. People need to come out and vote like they did for registration. Hiyo tu. Turn out will make a very big difference in this election, however you dice it.
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Yeap that more or less accurate. Unlike Omollo you've tried to be objective. However this still sort of broad-brush where county like Kisii or Nyamira or Mombasa are assign to coalition although Jubilee got nearly 25% of the vote there...which are not small figures.Anyway I took the trouble to help Omollo with figures. Jubilee stronghold except for Uasin Gishu & West Pokot is really solid - 95-80% - while some of what passes as CORD stronghold (see amber color) Jubilee will most likey score 25% or more -- they are "strongholds".
So until you refine this figures - this misleading.
(http://i.imgur.com/Os9ECOB.png)
I went through the numbers: it's true, the additions on Jubilee column should be slightly over 7M, roughly 7 M flat, not 5.7.
If I can attempt/suggest my own rudimentary MOAS formula, I'd say first of all that W.Pokot, Bomet and Mandera (around 670 K or 0.67M) are clear Jubilee based on 2013 patterns; Mandera had like 93 % Uhuru votes. So I would count that as Jubilee, bringing it to around 7.7 M. If we throw in Isiolo and Samburu, it'll be just slightly under 8 M.
For NASA, Western and Nyanza, Coast and Ukambani together are also slightly under 8 M.
That leaves battle ground as Nai, Kajiado, Narok, T. Nzoia, Turkana (debatable but we'll leave it here for now), Garissa, Wajir, Maarsabit, Lamu, which is roughly 3.8 M and if 2013 patterns hold, NASA has a clear edge i this category, it's not exactly 50/50.
NASA has more raw numbers but the gap is not as big as initially thought. People need to come out and vote like they did for registration. Hiyo tu. Turn out will make a very big difference in this election, however you dice it.
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That is true, mine is just a rough estimate but Nakuru is not 90% Jubilee, is it? Maybe 80%? I am thinking Kisii votes will be like Coast votes this time; around 80% but for projection better to use 2013 patterns.
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In what I have classified as Jubilee strongholds - the laggards in 2013- were Uasin Gishu(73%),West pokot(75%), Nakuru(80%), Laikipia(85%)..others are pretty solid 90% plus...as for CORD you have many counties where CORD scored around 70%(+-5)..with majority around 80%...and only Luo Nyanza+Kamba+Western scored around 90%...so once you nailed down the details...you'll realize NASA has an uphill task.
Uhuru's GEMA+Kalenjin registered votes is nearly 45% of all the registered voters, are reliable in turn out and all Uhuru really need to win nationally to cross 50% is not much (get 4% nationally)- which is why he won in 2013 when Raila beat him in most counties. This time round Uhuru is going to generally do better than he did in 2013 - I can tell you for fact that he'll do better (even if slightly) than 2013 in Turkana, WestPokot,Bungoma,Tranzoia,Marsabit, Isiolo, Lamu, Tana River, Kilifi, Taita Taveta, Kwale, Mombasa, Wajir & Garissa..and possibly even Busia, Nyamira & Gusii...and maybe Machakos/Makueni/Kitui !
As for Gusii - I don't think Raila will improve - Uhuru this time round has solid ground game in Obure-Nyachae (and more than half the mps)- compared to 2013 - when it was only Magara/Nyangeso.ODM/NASA tend to attract loud younger supporters amongst the Gusii but reliable older votes will vote Jubilee...then add the clan matrix.
That is true, mine is just a rough estimate but Nakuru is not 90% Jubilee, is it? Maybe 80%? I am thinking Kisii votes will be like Coast votes this time; around 80% but for projection better to use 2013 patterns.
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For the Gusii, I only have word of mouth info from people who listen to Gusii radio and talk to folk at home, not much more. The word is that the trend has shifted even further into opposition than 2013 which was itself a very strong shift into the opposition compared to previous elections (minus the Nyachae as candidate once-off thing). Before then, Gusiis tended to be 50/50 more or less. I think it best to assume 90% for Luo-Nyanza and Western, 85% for Ukambani, and 80% for Coast and Kisii, but like I said, it's probably better to presume 2013 patterns for Gusii. Uhuru improving there is highly unlikely in my opinion. New voters are younger, not older, and some of the older have dumped Jubilee, but not all. Anyway, we'll see. NASA needs to make sure its people are at the polls and not at home on election day. That is the battle IMO.
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Interesting. What making them mad. That Jubilee is two tribe coalition and perhaps that all benefits has gone to Nyachae family. I'll try find the 2013 discourse on the same..you know I scored a bull-eye in Gusii where I predicted to CORD would win 68/69% and Jubilee 23-25%.
Looking the opinion polls - western is quite interesting - NASa ought to be worried - esp of Bungoma county.
For the Gusii, I only have word of mouth info from people who listen to Gusii radio and talk to folk at home, not much more. The word is that the trend has shifted even further into opposition than 2013 which was itself a very strong shift into the opposition compared to previous elections (minus the Nyachae as candidate once-off thing). Before then, Gusiis tended to be 50/50 more or less. I think it best to assume 90% for Luo-Nyanza and Western, 85% for Ukambani, and 80% for Coast and Kisii, but like I said, it's probably better to presume 2013 patterns for Gusii. Uhuru improving there is highly unlikely in my opinion. New voters are younger, not older, and some of the older have dumped Jubilee, but not all. Anyway, we'll see. NASA needs to make sure its people are at the polls and not at home on election day. That is the battle IMO.
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Interesting. What making them mad. That Jubilee is two tribe coalition and perhaps that all benefits has gone to Nyachae family. I'll try find the 2013 discourse on the same..you know I scored a bull-eye in Gusii where I predicted to CORD would win 68/69% and Jubilee 23-25%.
Looking the opinion polls - western is quite interesting - NASa ought to be worried - esp of Bungoma county.
For the Gusii, I only have word of mouth info from people who listen to Gusii radio and talk to folk at home, not much more. The word is that the trend has shifted even further into opposition than 2013 which was itself a very strong shift into the opposition compared to previous elections (minus the Nyachae as candidate once-off thing). Before then, Gusiis tended to be 50/50 more or less. I think it best to assume 90% for Luo-Nyanza and Western, 85% for Ukambani, and 80% for Coast and Kisii, but like I said, it's probably better to presume 2013 patterns for Gusii. Uhuru improving there is highly unlikely in my opinion. New voters are younger, not older, and some of the older have dumped Jubilee, but not all. Anyway, we'll see. NASA needs to make sure its people are at the polls and not at home on election day. That is the battle IMO.
I don't think they are mad. I have not been living at home, to be honest. All my information I'm getting from talking to people. I have not been immersed in Kenyan politics for a good while, I'm learning things everyday on this board, playing catch-up if you will. I didn't even know the nitty gritty of that IEBC case. :D So everything I'm telling you, I have heard from someone else. Family, frienda and friends of friends...that's my source, hehehe.....If I were to venture a guess, I'd say it's just the perception that the Govt ina wenyewe in two tribes and others feeling like they can only belong in a perceived bigger tent in opposition. I've heard a lot about unga and cost of living from regular folk. I don't think it's anything bigger than that.
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Totally get it. Yeah Unga is big and perception that Jubilee is 2-tribe arrangment also valid. Unga was Uhuru biggest threat to second time so he has respond to that.
For the Gusii, I only have word of mouth info from people who listen to Gusii radio and talk to folk at home, not much more. The word is that the trend has shifted even further into opposition than 2013 which was itself a very strong shift into the opposition compared to previous elections (minus the Nyachae as candidate once-off thing). Before then, Gusiis tended to be 50/50 more or less. I think it best to assume 90% for Luo-Nyanza and Western, 85% for Ukambani, and 80% for Coast and Kisii, but like I said, it's probably better to presume 2013 patterns for Gusii. Uhuru improving there is highly unlikely in my opinion. New voters are younger, not older, and some of the older have dumped Jubilee, but not all. Anyway, we'll see. NASA needs to make sure its people are at the polls and not at home on election day. That is the battle IMO.
[/quote]
I don't think they are mad. I have not been living at home, to be honest. All my information I'm getting from talking to people. I have not been immersed in Kenyan politics for a good while, I'm learning things everyday on this board, playing catch-up if you will. I didn't even know the nitty gritty of that IEBC case. :D So everything I'm telling you, I have heard from someone else. Family, frienda and friends of friends...that's my source, hehehe.....If I were to venture a guess, I'd say it's just the perception that the Govt ina wenyewe in two tribes and others feeling like they can only belong in a perceived bigger tent in opposition. I've heard a lot about unga and cost of living from regular folk. I don't think it's anything bigger than that.
[/quote]
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Kadame
Let me indulge you and Pundit:
So let's just say any place (county) where the losing candidate got below 30% is a stronghold of the winner. Thi9s was the original defintion of "Stronghold" before it proved awry for Jubilee pundits and they dumped it for "shifting grounds".
Let's go to work: Here is what I found: (it is done in a hurry and there could be some errors).
(http://omollosview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/NASA-Strongholds_Under_30.jpg)(http://omollosview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Jubilee-Strongholds2.jpg)
So where is NASA is trouble? If you look at the % of the battleground counties, Raila won 9 out of 11. It means he gets most of the remaining 4M battleground votes in any Pundit-prepared MOAS where the 2013 % is factored. He can't cook figures (not that he hasn't done before!)
Pundit ana mchezo wake.
(http://omollosview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Battleground_Counties_Revised.jpg)
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I am re-checking Mandera voters. Pundit, what is your source for mandera voters?
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Totally get it. Yeah Unga is big and perception that Jubilee is 2-tribe arrangment also valid. Unga was Uhuru biggest threat to second time so he has respond to that.
How has he responded to it? By accusing Raila of hiding Unga? Or claiming that in 2011 Raila sent GSU to beat up Unga demonstrators and tear gassed them?
Or is it the Mexican Unga which he now claims was imported by Raila friendly Wahindis after he and Ruto took full credit in the name of the government?
Please get your message together. Your enemies have began to sympathise with your confusion.
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Omollo, me I'm thinking that NASA has more numbers, the only thing I'm readjusting is the gap I thought there was. I think NASA must concentrate on GOTV. Please, if you know the insiders, tell them the game is to get NASA people at the polling stations on 08/08. If they vote, Jubilee goes home. It's that simple. If they don't vote, Jubilee may sneak by with their massive turnouts. People must vote. Pure and simple. I want to see someone else take a stab at governance. Praying so.
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At least you've tried to comeback to reality. Now as you look keenly at the battle-ground counties (where Raila HAD slight advantage - due to incumbency); also re-look the so called strongholds. 30%/70% spread is too wide in an election where winner will win by less than 10%.
If you look at the stronghold - Uhuru has 12 counties where he won by more than 90%..(round off Embu). In NASA stronghold Raila only does that in 6 counties. Uhuru has couple of 80s and just two 70s. Raila has 4 counties he score 70% or less; another 7 in 80% range.
Therefore as you can see Uhuru stronghold are more tight - his average support is tending towards 90% in this loosely defined "strongholds"- Raila support is tending toward 80%
This is why all these are rough MOAS --- they are not accurate in tight election.
When I do my refined MOAS - I'll use const breakdown and that is when you really nail the specifics. Counties do not really capture our tribal make up - as much as const do - for example look at Migori - unlike other Luo counties - where Raila scored 97% - he scores 86% in Migori due to Kuria West & East Const voting 50-50.
After get you 2013 baseline correct....then adjust to realities of 2017 -- this won't be exact replica - there are different dynamics for this - and that is where MOAS has to predict based on evidence adduced where people will likely to vote.
Kadame
Let me indulge you and Pundit:
So let's just say any place (county) where the losing candidate got below 30% is a stronghold of the winner. Thi9s was the original defintion of "Stronghold" before it proved awry for Jubilee pundits and they dumped it for "shifting grounds".
Let's go to work: Here is what I found: (it is done in a hurry and there could be some errors).
(http://omollosview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/NASA-Strongholds_Under_30.jpg)(http://omollosview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Jubilee-Strongholds2.jpg)
So where is NASA is trouble? If you look at the % of the battleground counties, Raila won 9 out of 11. It means he gets most of the remaining 4M battleground votes in any Pundit-prepared MOAS where the 2013 % is factored. He can't cook figures (not that he hasn't done before!)
Pundit ana mchezo wake.
(http://omollosview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Battleground_Counties_Revised.jpg)
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Pundit, Omollo, it was asked before:where are you guys getting your data for the current registration? I also want to know! :)
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Kadame
in 2013 by some fluke or design, CORD never sent a single agent to Jubilee areas. In some areas close by in RV, volunteers were scrambled late in the evening finding some of the polling stations already closed.
The man responsible for that was Eric Owalo and he was bought and paid for by Jubilee. He not only pocketed CORD money (Agents allowances, Car rental fees. accommodation etc) he also received a hefty payout from NIS and Jubilee to not send agents. He then misled CORD and Raila for most of the day, staying close to ensure all complaints went through him.
On examination, all the Jubilee areas where CORD had agents had what you can call "normal" turnouts. There are certain areas which because of enthusiasm, the turnout can be 100% minus the dead. Sick people about to die are known to be wheelbarrowed in to polling stations to vote before they die on their way back home.
However we believe there was stuffing.
For this year, we are prepared for NASA agents to be harassed by the police. They will be arrested, denied access and all the known tricks to facilitate cheating.
We know the NIS working with Safaricom has set up some interception centre between the IEBC and the ROs. To me those issues are more important than turnout. 97% turnout is possible in the home counties of the candidates but not outside.
NASA will need to appeal to voters to save their own lives and kick out Jubilee or starve. They will turn out to vote. But NASA has a duty to prevent vote stuffing in the name of 99& turnout.
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Are you joking? 30% of votes in would not amount to 10% of the national vote. I think you are pushing the envelope to give Jubilee the maximum advantage.
Why don't you start with the battleground counties and show us who gets most of those based on their 2013 performance?
At least you've tried to comeback to reality. Now as you look keenly at the battle-ground counties (where Raila HAD slight advantage - due to incumbency); also re-look the so called strongholds. 30%/70% spread is too wide in an election where winner will win by less than 10%.
If you look at the stronghold - Uhuru has 12 counties where he won by more than 90%..(round off Embu). In NASA stronghold Raila only does that in 6 counties. Uhuru has couple of 80s and just two 70s. Raila has 4 counties he score 70% or less; another 7 in 80% range.
Therefore as you can see Uhuru stronghold are more tight - his average support is tending towards 90% in this loosely defined "strongholds"- Raila support is tending toward 80%
This is why all these are rough MOAS --- they are not accurate in tight election.
When I do my refined MOAS - I'll use const breakdown and that is when you really nail the specifics. Counties do not really capture our tribal make up - as much as const do - for example look at Migori - unlike other Luo counties - where Raila scored 97% - he scores 86% in Migori due to Kuria West & East Const voting 50-50.
After get you 2013 baseline correct....then adjust to realities of 2017 -- this won't be exact replica - there are different dynamics for this - and that is where MOAS has to predict based on evidence adduced where people will likely to vote.
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Pundit, Omollo, it was asked before:where are you guys getting your data for the current registration? I also want to know! :)
the IEBC posted the stuff online awhile ago. It is here is some thread if you dig. I think its also available to IEBC but I don't access the IEBC on relatively insecure computers. So won't help you. Pundit had a link recently.
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Oh, I found a link here--County and constituency: https://softkenya.com/kenya/iebc-registered-voters/
I hope it's credible.
EDIT: This is just someone else's MOAS. Woi, I can't find the primary data.
I can't go through all those 2013 constituency results though.
Another key factor which we have no way of dealing with here is the ethnic distribution of the new voters (around 3.5 M) especially in battle ground areas.
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I think you are pretending not to understand what I wrote up there.
We will get to the details of what I think happened in 2013 and what will happened in 2017...this of course will be very contentious.
I am convinced Uhuru will win the battleground this time round. Turkana is going to that battleground group. Let us have the final cleaned and audited register and we can start working on each of those areas.
I also cannot do this without breakdown const per const .
We will have refined and then final MOAS pretty before mid July.
Are you joking? 30% of votes in would not amount to 10% of the national vote. I think you are pushing the envelope to give Jubilee the maximum advantage.
Why don't you start with the battleground counties and show us who gets most of those based on their 2013 performance?
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At least you've tried to comeback to reality. Now as you look keenly at the battle-ground counties (where Raila HAD slight advantage - due to incumbency); also re-look the so called strongholds. 30%/70% spread is too wide in an election where winner will win by less than 10%.
Incumbency in Kenya offers no advantages. Perhaps we should discuss that exhaust and settle it once and for all so you can stop citing it. Uhur cannot blame anybody for the Unga Crisi try as he may. It is his baby. During the 2013 elections, Uhuru managed to position himself as not being part of the government - even while Deputy Prime Minister. Raila made a blunder to own up incumbency, thus Julie Gichuru could ask Uhuru how he would solve a problem that Raila as PM had not managed to address, "despite being in government".
Historically Ronald Reagan always made sure he ran against his own government. He positioned himself as an outsider while California Governor and President. I have yet to see anybody who has benefitted from being the incumbent. Perhaps the use or state resources, spying on opponents etc (all illegal but normal in Kenya).
I think Under 30% is quite OK. Even if you go to 40% Raila would still carry a majority of the battlegrounds.
If you look at the stronghold - Uhuru has 12 counties where he won by more than 90%..(round off Embu). In NASA stronghold Raila only does that in 6 counties. Uhuru has couple of 80s and just two 70s. Raila has 4 counties he score 70% or less; another 7 in 80% range.
At the time Jubilee had more registered voters in its areas than CORD (only that Hassan revealed that after the elections!) I don't see how that argument holds water.
Vote stuffing will be limited. Unless you go to manual voting again, I don't see how you'll get those crazy 90s
Therefore as you can see Uhuru stronghold are more tight - his average support is tending towards 90% in this loosely defined "strongholds"- Raila support is tending toward 80%
It is not the % turnout alone but the number of registered voters as well. One can get 99% in Marsabit which is cancelled by 80% in Kakamega. The bottomline is that NASA has more voters. They came because NASA managed to mobilize them to get out and register. It is likely that they will also turnout to vote in equally increased numbers. There is a clear connection or correlation.
This is why all these are rough MOAS --- they are not accurate in tight election.
No MOAS is accurate in a country where the electoral commission works hand in glove with the ruling party, the secret police and the leading telecoms company.
When I do my refined MOAS - I'll use const breakdown and that is when you really nail the specifics. Counties do not really capture our tribal make up - as much as const do - for example look at Migori - unlike other Luo counties - where Raila scored 97% - he scores 86% in Migori due to Kuria West & East Const voting 50-50.
This was an anti-Machage vote. Machage is out
After get you 2013 baseline correct....then adjust to realities of 2017 -- this won't be exact replica - there are different dynamics for this - and that is where MOAS has to predict based on evidence adduced where people will likely to vote.
That is when Pundit will "shift the ground", Cite Mvurya and Mung'aro, throw in Jirongo and Ababu Namwamba, May be Kalausi party in South Nyanza, Predict Nyagarama will defect to Jubilee in Kisii and cite the discredited Nyachae Family.
You will cook and cook until Jubilee emerges the winner.
It's like a football team scores 5 goals in an empty goal post and then goes to the field to demonstrate how the players dodged passed and then scored. Let the outcome you desire not determine or lead the process. Follow the process and accept whatever outcome.
That is Pundit's weakness: Having decided Jubilee will win, he will twist facts, violate logic, trample on his own past statements and principles before he comes with a conclusion that well, says Jubilee wins!
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Uhuru can win Turkana easily. All he has to do is recant the legislation he imposed on Parliament and let Turkana keep 10% of their oil revenue and not the 5% he forced on them.
What are the chances that you discover oil in Bomet and President Raila overrules parliament's offer of 10% of the revenue and imposes 5% and you go out of your way to vote for him?
The problem with you is that you choose what you think is important and veer over deadly issues. Oil is Africa is the stuff of rebellions and ignoring the feelings of the Turkana did in Jubilee. There is nothing anybody is talking about there.
The Turkana Government and Nanok have mobilized International support like you have never seen.
I can't see how else you can do it without cheating if you will not apply the % of the vote obtained in 2013. If you do that I can already tell you Raila wins hands down. I have it already done here and will simply adjust for the refined figures.
I think you are pretending not to understand what I wrote up there.
We will get to the details of what I think happened in 2013 and what will happened in 2017...this of course will be very contentious.
I am convinced Uhuru will win the battleground this time round. Turkana is going to that battleground group. Let us have the final cleaned and audited register and we can start working on each of those areas.
I also cannot do this without breakdown const per const .
We will have refined and then final MOAS pretty before mid July.
Are you joking? 30% of votes in would not amount to 10% of the national vote. I think you are pushing the envelope to give Jubilee the maximum advantage.
Why don't you start with the battleground counties and show us who gets most of those based on their 2013 performance?
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Someone,
Please cite a legitimate source for the data. Preferably one you can pull into a spreadsheet. I can't find anything from even IEBC that seems up to date. Their data seems different from anything I have seen here, maybe dated and is obviously in the process of being "cleaned".
It's hard to keep up when all we have are images of numbers.
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In other words, share your sources. This is not supposed to be a secret. Upload a file. Maybe a link to scribd. If the data can be verified, and also extracted into a spreadsheet it's simply easier for someone to dissect it for further insights.
As an example this image shared by Pundit differs from IEBC data. The IEBC site has Nyandarua with 283,205 registered voters. Nyeri 390,882. Kiambu has 947,599 etc. I am assuming this is outdated. I need to know where to get the up to date stuff.
(http://omollosview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Jubilee-Strongholds2.jpg)
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I posted the preliminary IEBC totals here or at choo.com
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I posted the preliminary IEBC totals here or at choo.com
Do you have the link?
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Pundit
You got it right in 2002 so did I and many others (No rigging)
In 2007 - You got it right and so did we all - stolen (we all agree on that)
in 2013 - You claim to have got it right. Was not here. I delved in to it and found rigging. You refuse to even entertain the idea and become technicalist referring to the courts and all the officialdom
2017 - You and I are in opposing camps. That is crunch time to determine who between us is The Real Pundit.
Boasting about your past and re-writing it to give yourself invincibility will not help you.
You look at the figures and facts and so do I. More than you. You have an eye for detail so do and I beat you on stamina and singular devotion to a cause any time. So I say may the best Pundit win
The people you mention, PK etc, did not calculate rigging in their propositions. I do. If I reach a point where I am convinced the rigging would overcome NASA or that Jubilee would preponderate, I will state so. For now the momentum is with NASA and Jubilee is in doldrums. Any polls showing Jubilee in 60% now or in future are plain lies.
I would be very surprised if either gets over 55% in the first or second round.
Factors I am watching for:
1. A sudden huge injection of illicit funds by Jubilee which is not countered by NASA
2. A major fallout within NASA which lasts a week before it is settled
3. Vote suppression using violence (indiscriminate nightly mass killings in NASA zones) which has been in the planning since Moi was visited by Mama Ngina
4. Jubilee regains total control over the voter database with the capacity to move voters and mark any as already voted
As of now every one of the people Uhuru trusts with cash to dish out is a thief. So NASA has not had to do much to counter that. However should they use plan D which is to find old KANU networks of old men, we have working antidotes for that as well.
NASA is not making enough noise about the sacking of the IT director and why. That is a disappointment but I think Mudavadi wrote to them with specific demands and we shall await their response.
I have been in this game for quite some time enough to cook them figures. I have been predicting Kenyan elections & referendum in rcb, nipate.com & now here for nearly 15 yrs now. Every election or referendum I get folks like you who come up here trying to just quote figures and come election time they all disappear.
Last election - PuaKal , Luo Kenya, Pajero and wakina kichwa - shouted horse and promptly disappeared.
We are only 2 months to d-day. After final register of voters is released - I'll give my final figures as always - and we shall see again - I am pretty sure I'll get a few places wrong - but overally I'll get it right - coz I understand our politics in and out.
I know you'll re-appear here with rigging conspiracy saying I knew the numbers ...like predicted to a dot many of 2013 results - I only missed western (though MaDVD/Wamalwa would do better in BGM&KKM) and the turn out was nothing like I have seen.
I agree with the broad dimensions of what you say. Especially about relying on a previous rigged outcome to predict a future election, presumably free of rigging. When I acknowledge something as rigged, I generally ignore it, as a source of any meaningful information - except perhaps to highlight that fact. That does not mean I can ignore the fact that the elements that enable such an outcome as still intact.
Still, when I look at 2013, while I suspect that a runoff was rigged away, I am not sure if Raila could have won it. The party numbers in parliament seem to suggest the outcome was close to what the final would have been anyway. That is more so, when you consider that jubilant areas, except parts of RV, are generally underrepresented. In spite of being underrepresented, they still won more seats.
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Here is my rough preliminary projection: if Jubilee turnout is 90% against NASA's 80%, they win. If NASA's is 85%, NASA win. The job is to get NASA out to the voting booths.
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I agree with the broad dimensions of what you say. Especially about relying on a previous rigged outcome to predict a future election, presumably free of rigging. When I acknowledge something as rigged, I generally ignore it, as a source of any meaningful information - except perhaps to highlight that fact. That does not mean I can ignore the fact that the elements that enable such an outcome as still intact.
Still, when I look at 2013, while I suspect that a runoff was rigged away, I am not sure if Raila could have won it. The party numbers in parliament seem to suggest the outcome was close to what the final would have been anyway. That is more so, when you consider that jubilant areas, except parts of RV, are generally underrepresented. In spite of being underrepresented, they still won more seats.
The runoff, in my personal subjective opinion was the last thing Uhuru wanted.
Uhuru won in the first round by about 8K votes. CORD proved that over 8K votes had been wrongly credited to Uhuru by the iEBC. There was more evidence showing even more egregious theft by the IEBC. This is common knowledge for those who have bothered to delve in to the rigging of the 2013 elections.
It is unlikely that CORD would have left polling stations in Central to be stuffed so freely. Some of the tricks employed by the IEBC and NIS would have been harder to repeat. Mudavadi would have been out of the race and he could not dare tell his 400K voters (most Luhyas in Western and Diaspora) to vote for Uhuru.
Uhuru had run out of money forcing the NIS to steal money from the National Bank pretending it was for the Police
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Here is my rough preliminary projection: if Jubilee turnout is 90% against NASA's 80%, they win. If NASA's is 85%, NASA win. The job is to get NASA out to the voting booths.
Kadame
This is how it works:
1. When rigging is the objective, you can raise your turnout to 80 and they will artificially raise their to 90 and if you hit 90 they will shamelessly hit 100% and above.
2. To avoid the Kibaki shame of 2007 where they had to stuff boxes to 120% of the registered voters, the NIS gains access to the database and inflates the registered voters in any location it needs them.
We are fighting to deny the NIS access to the database. We know that after they found that difficult, they are setting up a kind of Interceptor between the ROs and the IEBC in Bomas. They will doctor or send their own well prepared "results" to a hapless IEBC
Tell me whether raising the turnout is still the answer? Each year, GEMA hands the opposition a mirage to run after. They are assisted by fake polls, engineered "divisions" and all the crap that Moi used to hand them when he kept them in the cold for 24 years!
Falling for them is the problem.
The truth is that apart from Gatundu (Kiambu) turnout was not any higher than in CORD areas.
Here is food for thought:
Did you know that after 2002 elections the number of voters in Central nearly doubled?
Did you know that the number of voters for 2007 was higher than 2013 and that
Central is the only place in Kenya where the number of voters actually decreased between elections?
Please study the figures and understand that we are not in elections. We are fighting an entrenched system which if it loses the elections, will resort to other measures to maintain power. Please stop being naive Kadame.
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But Omollo, its not naivety to be prepared on both fronts. You fight the entrenchment AND you get people out to vote. I'm just saying we must get our people to the booths on that day. I'm not saying that there is nothing else to be on the lookout for..... Remember I said earlier that my projections are all predicated on the presumption of a clean election: In Kenya, that is a YUGE assumption to make; but thats all lay people can do with the available data. Those deep-state games are not easy to put on the table unless youre an insider
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But Omollo, its not naivety to be prepared on both fronts. You fight the entrenchment AND you get people out to vote. I'm just saying we must get our people to the booths on that day. I'm not saying that there is nothing else to be on the lookout for.....
Of course
However if the rigging systems are in place and get out 85% turnout, they will just stuff more votes.
So NASA must get high turnout and trust me, they will. But must guard against vote stuffing, children voting and multiple voting among others. Must stop Safaricom setting up an Interceptor Node to be used to doctor results
Am watching Madaraka in Nyeri. They have decided to freeze out Raila. He's unfazed. God loves humility and Jesus warned against taking the high seat. The speeches are mostly in Gikuyu.
Now when people choose to isolate themselves, why do they later accuse others of doing that to them?
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Uhuru won by 50.5
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Pundit is obnoxiously full of himself. Like Omollo said, in 2002 we all predicted Kibaki win. In 2007 we all know what happened and agreed Kibaki stole. It's only 2013 that we disagreed and still do. It is therefore a flat out lie that you are God when it comes to predicting kenya's presidential elections. Just make your predictions like everybody else and stop the unnecessary hubris. It is my humbly and informed opinion that NASA will win. I am in KE right now and I feel extremely optimistic about NASA's chances. Hiyo tuu.
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Kichwa - enjoy kenya and don't waste time on NASA - never gonna happen. Numbers don't lie. I always make sound arguments backed with evidence and data. Having ran the numbers I can tell you NASA win is so unlikely - Jubilee will have to score zero outisde GEMA+Kalenjin for that to happen.
9th August is exactly 2 months from now - be here - and see numbers 53%-46%-1% - margin of error +-2%.
Pundit is obnoxiously full of himself. Like Omollo said, in 2002 we all predicted Kibaki win. In 2007 we all know what happened and agreed Kibaki stole. It's only 2013 that we disagreed and still do. It is therefore a flat out lie that you are God when it comes to predicting kenya's presidential elections. Just make your predictions like everybody else and stop the unnecessary hubris. It is my humbly and informed opinion that NASA will win. I am in KE right now and I feel extremely optimistic about NASA's chances. Hiyo tuu .
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Pundit, Ask Theresa May about predictions. She counted her chicken before they were hatched just like you are. I do not believe you have predicted more elections than those who were wrong in USA and now U.K.
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I have always differed with many opinion polls - it for same reason I saw Trump win - Theresa may ni nani :) - I don't follow the news of that small island anymore.
Pundit, Ask Theresa May about predictions. She counted her chicken before they were hatched just like you are. I do not believe you have predicted more elections than those who were wrong in USA and now U.K.
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MOAS 2017 update
Total votes: 19,647,552
Expected turn out: 86%
Total Expected Cast votes:16,827,911
Jubilee (UHURUTO) 8,873,657 (53%)
NASA(Railonzo) 7,783,298 (46%)
Others(Abduba Dida) 170,956 (1%)
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Counties? MPs?
MOAS 2017 update
Total votes: 19,647,552
Expected turn out: 86%
Total Expected Cast votes:16,827,911
Jubilee (UHURUTO) 8,873,657 (53%)
NASA(Railonzo) 7,783,298 (46%)
Others(Abduba Dida) 170,956 (1%)
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Working on that...number of mps, women rep, senators and governors -each coalition will get.
Counties? MPs?
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Actually Hilary won the popular vote.
I have always differed with many opinion polls - it for same reason I saw Trump win - Theresa may ni nani :) - I don't follow the news of that small island anymore.
Pundit, Ask Theresa May about predictions. She counted her chicken before they were hatched just like you are. I do not believe you have predicted more elections than those who were wrong in USA and now U.K.
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There was never any doubt in me that Teresa may would lose to Jeremy. The Anti-Trump wind blowing in Europe is so strong you can feel it toppling bigots like May.
I am today sitting in a French Ice Cream Bar near Geneva (French Side) enjoying the breeze as news of Macron's landslide victory in the parliamentary polls comes in. The quantum of the win has not even been established and may well grant him an overwhelming majority in Parliament.
Actually Hilary won the popular vote.
I have always differed with many opinion polls - it for same reason I saw Trump win - Theresa may ni nani :) - I don't follow the news of that small island anymore.
Pundit, Ask Theresa May about predictions. She counted her chicken before they were hatched just like you are. I do not believe you have predicted more elections than those who were wrong in USA and now U.K.
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Pundit, if things are as solid for Jubilee as you believe, why is Uhuru desperately trying to woo Kisii? For a man with this thing in the bag, Uhuru sure seems less than perfectly confident.
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Kadame5
He still needs 4 percent and control of the Assembly to terrorize NASA
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I don't think 53% is solid enough when you're taking about 50% plus 1 - higher turn out matching Jubilee zones can wipe out that advantage. Jubilee is not desperate for Kisii vote - Jubilee are on campaign trail carpet bombing all the counties - today they are in West Pokot - tomorrow Kericho then Bomet then etc - and in each county they'll address issues they've know matters - from local politician & intelligence.
Obviously Jubilee are keen to retain their 25% of Gusii vote - and keep those 5-10 mps that got elected. That would translate about 1.5% of national vote - with Gusii contributing 5% of total votes.
I know as Raila supporters - you'd love to have Gusii vote 100% for NASA - but it simply aint happening - Jubilee have Gusii leader with lots of influences - starting from Obure/Nyachae/etc.
Pundit, if things are as solid for Jubilee as you believe, why is Uhuru desperately trying to woo Kisii? For a man with this thing in the bag, Uhuru sure seems less than perfectly confident.
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Kadame5
He still needs 4 percent and control of the Assembly to terrorize NASA
Have you seen Pundit's predictions? Uhuru already has minimum 53% which could go up to 55%. NASA have no path to victory. And Uhuru is getting something like 60% parliamentary majority. That sure sounds "in the bag" to me. If I were Uhuru and believed this, I would not be throwing my money at Kisiis or any other suitors that were playing hard-to-get.
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I don't think 53% is solid enough when you're taking about 50% plus 1 - higher turn out matching Jubilee zones can wipe out that advantage. Jubilee is not desperate for Kisii vote - Jubilee are on campaign trail carpet bombing all the counties - today they are in West Pokot - tomorrow Kericho then Bomet then etc - and in each county they'll address issues they've know matters - from local politician & intelligence.
Obviously Jubilee are keen to retain their 25% of Gusii vote - and keep those 5-10 mps that got elected. That would translate about 1.5% of national vote - with Gusii contributing 5% of total votes.
I know as Raila supporters - you'd love to have Gusii vote 100% for NASA - but it simply aint happening - Jubilee have Gusii leader with lots of influences - starting from Obure/Nyachae/etc.
Pundit, if things are as solid for Jubilee as you believe, why is Uhuru desperately trying to woo Kisii? For a man with this thing in the bag, Uhuru sure seems less than perfectly confident.
It's not just campaigning that he's doing though. It's money too. It's the money that makes me think Uhuru is more than keen to get Kisii votes, and not just the 25% you believe he is retaining. Those smaller seats, MPs, I really don't think can be impacted by national politics. Those seats get distributed according to local fitina and politics.
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Uhuru is aiming at 70% plus one :). I don't know why - because 50% plus 1 single vote- is more than enough. But you're right I don't see how Uhuru can lose this with 47% of expected cast votes expected to come from GEMA +Kalenjin. I have put the data out there.... so you can disprove.
Does Uhuru knows about MOAS ? Maybe not? Otherwise he'd save his money.In 2013 - MOAS predicted Gusii vote to the DOT. And if I am not wrong we engaged with you on this so many times. But I read the tea leaves...and predicted CORD would get 68 with Jubilee 23%...and the verdict was absolutely totally completely accurate.
I don't know about know (still watching it) but something tells me Uhuru will improve.....not actually regress like you say...in any case any improvement or regression will be marginal...nothing significant has happened btw 2013 and now...it a re-match.
Have you seen Pundit's predictions? Uhuru already has minimum 53% which could go up to 55%. NASA have no path to victory. And Uhuru is getting something like 60% parliamentary majority. That sure sounds "in the bag" to me. If I were Uhuru and believed this, I would not be throwing my money at Kisii's or any other suitors playing hard-to-get.
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I would because if I get 65 percent even better. A majority of 70 percent even more sweet because it gives you ability to expand legislative agenda. If Uhuru wanted to amend Constitution then with such majority he can do it without sweating
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Obviously Gusii have never been happy (and they shouldn't) about PEV against their people by Kalenjin (Ruto people) when they weren't part of Kibaki rigging and then fact there IDPS integrated with relatives & were forgotten. I guess Uhuru did the right thing. Gusii deserve the 800M votes. Kakamega got more for Mumias. Bungoma got more for Webuye. Each county is getting something because Uhuru is the incumbent and can direct money be spent anywhere.
It's not just campaigning that he's doing though. It's money too. It's the money that makes me think Uhuru is more than keen to get Kisii votes, and not just the 25% you believe he is retaining. Those smaller seats, MPs, I really don't think can be impacted by national politics. Those seats get distributed according to local fitina and politics.
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Uhuru is aiming at 70% plus one :). I don't know why - because 50% plus 1 single vote- is more than enough. But you're right I don't see how Uhuru can lose this with 47% of expected cast votes expected to come from GEMA +Kalenjin. I have put the data out there.... so you can disprove.
Does Uhuru knows about MOAS ? Maybe not? Otherwise he'd save his money.In 2013 - MOAS predicted Gusii vote to the DOT. And if I am not wrong we engaged with you on this so many times. But I read the tea leaves...and predicted CORD would get 68 with Jubilee 28%...and the verdict was absolutely totally accurate.
Have you seen Pundit's predictions? Uhuru already has minimum 53% which could go up to 55%. NASA have no path to victory. And Uhuru is getting something like 60% parliamentary majority. That sure sounds "in the bag" to me. If I were Uhuru and believed this, I would not be throwing my money at Kisii's or any other suitors playing hard-to-get.
Pundit, yes I remember nipate conversations. It was I who posted that tidbit on nipate.com about Gusii voting patterns re elderly vs youth and urban vs rural. I engaged with Energizer about Gusii votes, and the very moment Jubilee dumped cash super close to the elections and got its percentage up, I admitted so, on nipate. This was VERRY close to the election when the shift happened. Before then, CORD was well over 80%. And when the shift happened, it was tangible, you could actually talk to people in shags who were openly planning to vote for Jubilee after getting 50 bob. Lots of alcoholics, no kidding! :D This time, I have no access to the pulse of the community and I'm relying on the assessment of others but apart from one Raila-loathing nephew of mine, I honestly have not spoken to a single Kisii who is either openly saying they will vote Jubilee or predicting votes for Jubilee. If I were home this past year, I'd have my own feel for things, both Gusii and Luhyas, but alas, I don't.
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Absolutely right. We now have social media in addition to mass media to also gauge the political wind. All you need is to find popular gusii board and you've got a real feel on the ground. I have been to a couple - and it would seem it still 3 to 7; 3 for Jubilee;7 for NASA.
Pundit, yes I remember nipate conversations. It was I who posted that tidbit on nipate.com about Gusii voting patterns re elderly vs youth and urban vs rural. I engaged with Energizer about Gusii votes, and the very moment Jubilee dumped cash super close to the elections and got its percentage up, I admitted so, on nipate. This was VERRY close to the election when the shift happened. Before then, CORD was well over 80%. And when the shift happened, it was tangible, you could actually talk to people in shags who were openly planning to vote for Jubilee after getting 50 bob. Lots of alcoholics, no kidding! :D This time, I have no access to the pulse of the community and I'm relying on the assessment of others but apart from one Raila-loathing nephew of mine, I honestly have not spoken to a single Kisii who is either openly saying they will vote Jubilee or predicting votes for Jubilee. If I were home this past year, I'd have my own feel for things, both Gusii and Luhyas, but alas, I don't.
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13th June
Uhuru -53%
Raila - 46%
Others -1%
Note -I have basically assumed 2013 turnout excepted in Turkana & Coast - where I have increased turn out by 10% -coz I think MRC affected turn out in 2013.
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Will turn out help Raila; the answer is NO.
When I turn Raila's all stronghold and battleground to 95% vote turn out....
Uhuru still win by 51.3% against Raila 47.7%
Seem Raila win is tending towards impossible from improbable.
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Parliamentary seats - Projected number of seats (including women rep)
Jubilee (including frontier,mcc,pnu) -183(54%) -190 with nomination slots
NASA(ODM,Wiper,ANC, Ford-K, CCM) -126(37%) -131 with nomination slots.
Independents & Small parties - 28(8%) -
Note:This time small parties will not benefit from nomination fallout because of change of rule that disallow party hopping - losers (some rigged) ran as independents.
Total Elected MP seats-(290 +47 women rep)337 - with 12 nomination seats - to be split based on party performances - with Jubilee taking 7-8, ODM(4-5), Wiper/ANC (1).
Still rough - Note in 2013 - Jubilee had 56-58% of the parliament.
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The real Nipate election is whether MOAS are venerable or will go bust like the US opinion polls - the MOAS referendum.
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The real Nipate election is whether MOAS are venerable or will go bust like the US opinion polls - the MOAS referendum.
US opinion polls were not a bust - most, if not all of them, poll the popular vote and extrapolate from that. It is usually a reliable extrapolation, but it can be upset once in a while, because the electoral college does not always align with the popular vote.
The best were https://fivethirtyeight.com/. They had Clinton winning overall(both popular and electoral college). They also predicted that there were decent chances of her winning the popular vote and still losing the electoral college.
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At least the US opinion polls were shifting based on a daily, weekly or even monthly basis based on the campaigns, debates and issues. MOAS is a done deal. Ouru could stand in the middle of Mombasa Road and shoot Sonko dead and still win.
The real Nipate election is whether MOAS are venerable or will go bust like the US opinion polls - the MOAS referendum.
US opinion polls were not a bust - most, if not all of them, poll the popular vote and extrapolate from that. It is usually a reliable extrapolation, but it can be upset once in a while, because the electoral college does not always align with the popular vote.
The best were https://fivethirtyeight.com/. They had Clinton winning overall(both popular and electoral college). They also predicted that there were decent chances of her winning the popular vote and still losing the electoral college.
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How many referendum do you want to hold on MOAS when over the years it's proven itself.
The real Nipate election is whether MOAS are venerable or will go bust like the US opinion polls - the MOAS referendum.
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Kenya politics is far from issue-based - it mainly tribal based politics- the places where changes or shifting happens are so called battle-ground or swing grounds - but their weight is so small - any shift has minimal impact - the big 5 are more than 70% of the vote and that is easy to read.
Uhuru and Sonko have done worse....allegedly..and still won Senate & PORK. What more can top up Crimes Against Humanity - murder of one person?
At least the US opinion polls were shifting based on a daily, weekly or even monthly basis based on the campaigns, debates and issues. MOAS is a done deal. Ouru could stand in the middle of Mombasa Road and shoot Sonko dead and still win.
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GEMA and Kalenjin turnout might disappoint you... which answers Omollo's question why Uhuruto are up and about if their numbers are so solid: they are scared of poor base turnout.
GEMA, Kalenjin, Luo turnout
92, 97, 02 there was Moi
2007 Kibaki tribalism & 41 vs 1
2013 ICC
2017 - complacency?
For MP independent candidates will rain on the party. I assume Jubilee-leaning independents are counted as Jubilee and same for NASA.
How many referendum do you want to hold on MOAS when over the years it's proven itself.
The real Nipate election is whether MOAS are venerable or will go bust like the US opinion polls - the MOAS referendum.
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We can play with turn out and see if there is any change. I have played with it by giving NASA 95% turnout (impossible) and they still lose to Uhuru. Admittedly turn out is hard to model. Last time (2013 elections) I used the average turn out for all election that I have been held but we saw historic turn out of 86% - and that gave Raila lift of 2% - and I got it wrong in Western where I though MaDVD & Wamalwa would beat Raila - another 1% boost - so Raila instead of ending up around 39-40% - was up to 42%. Uhuru dropped from 52-53% to 51%. But that was still within the margin of error.
I think now the issue will only be turn out. My strategy is to seed the average turn out (from all elections or referendum) with 2013 turn out - because history is the best predictor.
GEMA and Kalenjin turnout might disappoint you... which answers Omollo's question why Uhuruto are up and about if their numbers are so solid: they are scared of poor base turnout.
GEMA, Kalenjin, Luo turnout
92, 97, 02 there was Moi
2007 Kibaki tribalism & 41 vs 1
2013 ICC
2017 - complacency?
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I finally got some tribal composition census for counties....based on 2019 data from Kenya socio-economic altas
Link http://www.kenya-atlas.org/pdf/Socio-Economic_Atlas_of_Kenya_2nd_edition.pdf
I have updated MOAS to reflect this - I'll work on fine-tunning it later this weekend.
But apart from turn out - we are nearly getting the FINAL MOAS - I don't see any new issues that could dramatically change anything now.
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Why don't you let Ouru know about MOAS so that he can stop wasting time and money campaigning.
I finally got some tribal composition census for counties....based on 2019 data from Kenya socio-economic altas
Link http://www.kenya-atlas.org/pdf/Socio-Economic_Atlas_of_Kenya_2nd_edition.pdf
I have updated MOAS to reflect this - I'll work on fine-tunning it later this weekend.
But apart from turn out - we are nearly getting the FINAL MOAS - I don't see any new issues that could dramatically change anything now.
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I pity anybody doubting MOAS.
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Pundit, what is the mystery behind the excellent Jubilee performance in Mandera viz the rest of NFD, where the ethnic composition is basically the same? I smelt a rat in 2013 but it seems your MOAS maintain 90% washout.
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The real Nipate election is whether MOAS are venerable or will go bust like the US opinion polls - the MOAS referendum.
US opinion polls were not a bust - most, if not all of them, poll the popular vote and extrapolate from that. It is usually a reliable extrapolation, but it can be upset once in a while, because the electoral college does not always align with the popular vote.
The best were https://fivethirtyeight.com/. They had Clinton winning overall(both popular and electoral college). They also predicted that there were decent chances of her winning the popular vote and still losing the electoral college.
I remember all those months right up until Florida results began to look unrelentingly RED, the unquestioned truth was that Donald Trump had no path to victory and a 1% chance of winning. They also had state to state polls that showed Donald Trump lacked a path to victory as he couldn't win any combination of swing states to catch up to Hillary. And then he ended up with over 300 electoral votes. This was the universal wisdom for months on end on virtually every news outlet on TV. I am simply never trusting opinion polls ever again. Whatever voodoo math they use to predict outcomes, it is proving reliably unreliable over the past year: Brexit, Trump, and Theresa May. Too many variables to be caught.
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Pundit is right about Narok County. Tunai will win not because he has anything good or he is liked by the people but because the purko have alienated the small clans besides fielding two candidates both in Nasa (ntutu and musuni). As far as the presidential election Nasa is still leading but jubilee is worker way harder to improve its numbers. In the neighboring bomet, jubilee is still ahead. Isaac (who I like very much) will lose but not by a huge margin like the one pundit is predicting.
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Pundit is right about Narok County. Tunai will win not because he has anything good or he is liked by the people but because the purko have alienated the small clans besides fielding two candidates both in Nasa (ntutu and musuni). As far as the presidential election Nasa is still leading but jubilee is worker way harder to improve its numbers. In the neighboring bomet, jubilee is still ahead. Isaac (who I like very much) will lose but not by a huge margin like the one pundit is predicting.
Ole, if you don't mind my asking, who are you supporting for president?
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The real Nipate election is whether MOAS are venerable or will go bust like the US opinion polls - the MOAS referendum.
US opinion polls were not a bust - most, if not all of them, poll the popular vote and extrapolate from that. It is usually a reliable extrapolation, but it can be upset once in a while, because the electoral college does not always align with the popular vote.
The best were https://fivethirtyeight.com/ (https://fivethirtyeight.com/). They had Clinton winning overall(both popular and electoral college). They also predicted that there were decent chances of her winning the popular vote and still losing the electoral college.
I remember all those months right up until Florida results began to look unrelentingly RED, the unquestioned truth was that Donald Trump had no path to victory and a 1% chance of winning. They also had state to state polls that showed Donald Trump lacked a path to victory as he couldn't win any combination of swing states to catch up to Hillary. And then he ended up with over 300 electoral votes. This was the universal wisdom for months on end on virtually every news outlet on TV. I am simply never trusting opinion polls ever again. Whatever voodoo math they use to predict outcomes, it is proving reliably unreliable over the past year: Brexit, Trump, and Theresa May. Too many variables to be caught.
Trump's chance of winning tended to be between 10% and 25% if I recall well. It was low but not 1%. The battleground states were all within the margin of error. He was at risk of losing Arizona for instance. I think Hillary even campaigned there. A mistake in retrospect, because even though the polls had her ahead in the firewall states they were within the margin of error. It means they could flip either way and they did. In Philly, she was simply unable to excite the Obama coalition.
4 days before the election, fivethirtyeight pointed out that a Trump victory, while highly unlikely, was still within a normal polling error https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/ (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/). If something better than polling comes up, I would definitely not be averse to giving it a look.
Even though people have correctly predicted election and even tournament winners just by shaking and throwing chicken bones where opinion polls got it wrong, I still think they are the best tools for the purpose. If they are not working, one can go back and analyze what went wrong, and design tweaks to account for any shortcomings.
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I accept the fact that in Kenya tribe is a very strong indicator of a person's political ideology, In the US, you can guess the political ideology of a person based on their race, education, gender and where they reside. Having said that, I believe that a politicians job is to change or maintain that ideology to their favor. Many people predicted that Obama could not win because of his color but Obama managed to change that proved many people wrong. This is the reason why I do not accept the notion that in Kenya presidential election can be predicted months before the elections just by plugging the candidates tribe and adjusting the previous voting numbers accordingly. One can close their eyes and cross a busy highway twice without being hit by a care but that does not mean they are a genius as to matters of crossing roads with eyes closed.
The real Nipate election is whether MOAS are venerable or will go bust like the US opinion polls - the MOAS referendum.
US opinion polls were not a bust - most, if not all of them, poll the popular vote and extrapolate from that. It is usually a reliable extrapolation, but it can be upset once in a while, because the electoral college does not always align with the popular vote.
The best were https://fivethirtyeight.com/ (https://fivethirtyeight.com/). They had Clinton winning overall(both popular and electoral college). They also predicted that there were decent chances of her winning the popular vote and still losing the electoral college.
I remember all those months right up until Florida results began to look unrelentingly RED, the unquestioned truth was that Donald Trump had no path to victory and a 1% chance of winning. They also had state to state polls that showed Donald Trump lacked a path to victory as he couldn't win any combination of swing states to catch up to Hillary. And then he ended up with over 300 electoral votes. This was the universal wisdom for months on end on virtually every news outlet on TV. I am simply never trusting opinion polls ever again. Whatever voodoo math they use to predict outcomes, it is proving reliably unreliable over the past year: Brexit, Trump, and Theresa May. Too many variables to be caught.
Trump's chance of winning tended to be between 10% and 25% if I recall well. It was low but not 1%. The battleground states were all within the margin of error. He was at risk of losing Arizona for instance. I think Hillary even campaigned there. A mistake in retrospect, because even though the polls had her ahead in the firewall states they were within the margin of error. It means they could flip either way and they did. In Philly, she was simply unable to excite the Obama coalition.
4 days before the election, fivethirtyeight pointed out that a Trump victory, while highly unlikely, was still within a normal polling error https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/ (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/). If something better than polling comes up, I would definitely not be averse to giving it a look.
Even though people have correctly predicted election and even tournament winners just by shaking and throwing chicken bones where opinion polls got it wrong, I still think they are the best tools for the purpose. If they are not working, one can go back and analyze what went wrong, and design tweaks to account for any shortcomings.
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I accept the fact that in Kenya tribe is a very strong indicator of a person's political ideology, In the US, you can guess the political ideology of a person based on their race, education, gender and where they reside. Having said that, I believe that a politicians job is to change or maintain that ideology to their favor. Many people predicted that Obama could not win because of his color but Obama managed to change that proved many people wrong. This is the reason why I do not accept the notion that in Kenya presidential election can be predicted months before the elections just by plugging the candidates tribe and adjusting the previous voting numbers accordingly. One can close their eyes and cross a busy highway twice without being hit by a care but that does not mean they are a genius as to matters of crossing roads with eyes closed.
No question tribe is king. I think in Kenya, it overwhelms every other factor rendering them inconsequential. A good pollster should factor that into their sampling data.
It is tribal. But how tribal? You figure that out by polling. Historical data can be used to normalize the result.
It's a bit like weather forecasting. Historical data by itself does not tell you what's likely to happen tomorrow other than that it is probably summer weather. You want to capture the current readings of relevant weather variables, then you can use those in combination with historical data to make a reliable forecast.
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Yeap the day pollster will capture tribe is the day they'll become more accurate esp in comsopolitan areas.
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Arranged election by clan elders for peace & harmony. This time nothing changed. The tribal maths for Mandera is Somali 97.6% (Gurre 50%,Degodia 28%,Hawiya 15%),Gabra,others 2%. Now like in 2013 clans have met and endorsed the guys on FP led by former PC (which support Jubilee). Basically Mandera is fight btw Jubilee allied Forntier party and Jubilee party (current leadership who've defied elders). There is no NASA in there. The same is true for Isiolo & Marsabit...the fight is btw Jubilee & FP.
Wajir -Somali 98% (Degodia, 46%,Ogaden 26%, Ajuran 20%) Gabra &others(2%) - NASA has headstart because Ahmed the current governor comes from largest clan - Degodia- so his lineup may win. I am yet to find who Jubilee fielded.
Garisaa -Majority Ogaden clan- Jubilee has headstart because while former Garissa district is fight btw Maalim & mohammud family (Duale) - in Dujis - Yusuf Haji has no competition and support Jubilee. So Jubilee takes Garissa.
Pundit, what is the mystery behind the excellent Jubilee performance in Mandera viz the rest of NFD, where the ethnic composition is basically the same? I smelt a rat in 2013 but it seems your MOAS maintain 90% washout.
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Isaac may poll better than 15% - very unlikely - he is only "popular" in drier parts of Bomet - chepalungu - but where I come from - Konoin- he'd be lucky to get 5%. NASA of course will be lucky to get 10%. As regard Narok - I think Jubilee will do better - Purko superiority complex is repelling everyone else.
Pundit is right about Narok County. Tunai will win not because he has anything good or he is liked by the people but because the purko have alienated the small clans besides fielding two candidates both in Nasa (ntutu and musuni). As far as the presidential election Nasa is still leading but jubilee is worker way harder to improve its numbers. In the neighboring bomet, jubilee is still ahead. Isaac (who I like very much) will lose but not by a huge margin like the one pundit is predicting.
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http://saharareporters.com/2017/06/20/buhari-suffers-speech-impairment-london
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polls show that Raila is way behind Uhuru
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Western in polls is intriguing - Raila seem to be doing below bar - 60% with Uhuru at 30% - otherwise northern kenya figures looks about right - also COAST is showing Jubilee has made some inroads.
polls show that Raila is way behind Uhuru
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Yeah raila needs to tighten his campaigns in his strongholds ..I see a 57 win for Uhuru
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I have been waiting for opinion polls to cross-check figures before realizing MOAS but unlike 2013 there is nothing come
Star has one that Uhuru is leading raila by 10% points...regional figures are wild..Meru for example - Uhuru has 53% while Raila has 33% - hard to believe - just as is equal hard to believe uhuru has 33% of Kitui.
http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/06/27/uhuru-still-ahead-of-raila-in-poll_c1586322
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Governor race
Independents (2)
Jubilee (19)
ODM(7)
Too close(18)
WIPER(1)
Total 47
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What's the pass mark? - I expect you to fail - excluding the "too close to call". Places like Tharaka Nithi have clan issues you haven't considered. Ragwa (NARC-K) likely winner.
Meru I stick with Munya - Meru won't have an outsider (Ruto) lorded over them by Kikuyus. Uhuru has actually cowed from endorsing Kiraitu & Jubilee.
Turkana ODM. Jubilee has delayed oil bill to avoid trouble but this will not save Munyes.
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I think for governors - those that delivered are safe - someone like Prof Chepkwony of kericho - or Tolgos of ElgeyoMarakwet - I am no longer sure of Mutua (although he delivered he got ambitious & fought wiper - that may cost him like Peter Kenneth debacle).
As for others...those that failed..then clan or tribal consideration will be key. I don't see Munya beat Kiraitu backed by Imentis. I also don't see Rangwa beating Chuka's meru. Just look at the numbers.
Turkana the same thing - Turkana Oil may be a factor - but consensus from most turkana leaders is that current governor Nanok has nothing to show for 50B Turkana has received. I expect Munyes & Senate Speaker plus all those Mps backing them to roll over Nanok.
Those Too Close to call - we will have to make a final call either way before election date - this my first go at this.
What's the pass mark? - I expect you to fail - excluding the "too close to call". Places like Tharaka Nithi have clan issues you haven't considered. Ragwa (NARC-K) likely winner.
Meru I stick with Munya - Meru won't have an outsider (Ruto) lorded over them by Kikuyus. Uhuru has actually cowed from endorsing Kiraitu & Jubilee.
Turkana ODM. Jubilee has delayed oil bill to avoid trouble but this will not save Munyes.
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MOAS as of 30th June 2017
--Update
-- I have increased Jubilee vote in Bungoma, Tranzoia & Narok - also small upward adjustment in Gusii & coast.
-- I have increased NASA votes in Nakuru
--Next major update - I think Other Candidates - Abduba Dida & Ekuru - have totally failed to catch national attention - and if they don't participate in the national debate - I have to cull their numbers.
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Infotrak Uhuru leads with 48% against Raila 43% with 8% undecided; look like if we split undecided; Infotrak would mirror MOAS; 52% versus 47%.
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001245478/president-uhuru-leads-in-latest-opinion-polls
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Raila needs a Miracle to win. may be a runoff is possible..
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This already is a run-off; I don't think bumping Dida, Nyaga & Ekuru off will improve Raila fortunes..they are all combined polling 1%. The problem for Raila is dealing with combined GEMA+Kalenjin base who account for 43-45 (depending on turn out)..and so Uhuru just need 5% of the vote...if we expect about 16M votes...5% is just 800,000 votes UhuRuto need to win from all over the country. UhuRuto will get about half of that from Northern Kenya where they are popular - all opinion polls I have seen consistently shows Uhuru win 60% to 40% - and we know ODM outside Wajir & Garissa - has no game in Mandera, Isiolo & Marsabit. Before you go to Coast, Gusii& Kuria & Matusa - Uhuruto would already have surpassed 50%.
There is only one way to beat UhuRuto - splinter GEMA+Kalenjin. Isaac Ruto lame attempt is too little.
Raila needs a Miracle to win. may be a runoff is possible..
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I am thinking just from a quick scan of the data, that NASA strongholds have registered a higher number of new voters than the jubilant compared to 2013. That is the impression I get just from a quick scan.
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The generals tend to fight the last war. That's why they never saw Trump coming in the USA.
I am thinking just from a quick scan of the data, that NASA strongholds have registered a higher number of new voters than the jubilant compared to 2013. That is the impression I get just from a quick scan.
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Ambitho's stew -- seem Somalis are pretty much decided on voting UhuRuto. Uhuru has improved in Coast by 10% points. Eastern also looking good. RiftValley ( I can understand it hard to sample due to many tribes residing there and Nairobi figures are hard to believe. Nyanza and Central are about right.
Western is interesting - because all opinions polls are showing the same thing - that Uhuru is doing so well - from 5% to 30%--with 18% undecided. Would be interesting to know which counties they sample.
(https://scontent.fnbo5-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/19601535_1985281251701259_7574161819732005047_n.jpg?oh=a846beb08ab75217ee84688f2f3048f1&oe=59D99443)
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This elections is still wide open and I would not rely on polls at all. I am sure the candidates are not taking anything for granted.
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Why are Somalis voting for the government? They must be benefiting immensely.
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Yeah - they have Duale - who essentially is 3rd in command - have many ministers/ps/parastal heads - in addition to all billions they are getting from counties - Mandera alone gets 12-15b annually - and I think UhuRuto have also tarmac road in NEP - the road from Garissa to Mandera is nearly done - small sections remain - but a lot of ground has been covered. They also support the war in Somali - because KDF is propping their fellow clansmen Ogaden in Kismaiyo - as opposed to Hawaiyes of Mogadishu who are the Alshabaab.
Why are Somalis voting for the government? They must be benefiting immensely.
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Very interesting. Somalis are very good businessmen so the fact they are benefiting from the spoils of war then I understand why they would want to remain the government.
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Global
Examine the voting results from last election.
Remember too that Uhuru cannot take credit for Devolution which he and Ruto nearly killed in Naivasha the same day they discarded Provinces (killing Rift Valley) and making the units unviable. Imagine how much cash RV would have had at its command and the power of its Governor? Uhuru simply cheated Ruto (and exploited his hot temper and anger against Raila) to achieve what his father had tried and failed. Kenyatta Snr wanted RV split in to small units some of which would be swallowed by Central either physically or by pumping people in them.
Laikipia is gone, Nakuru is gone and soon Kajiado will follow.
The locals don't see it that way but others have a clear agenda.
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We all know Gema played ODM in Naivasha but for the best. I supported parliamentary system but not the 16-region federalism due to tribalism. Also Kenya is not rich enough for 3-tier system. Devolution is about equity and localizing solutions so Rift Valley "county" would not cut as it is hardly homogeneous as a region. Present counties are perfectly suited for that. Recall they were the former colonial districts - even in the US they are the distinctive administrative units.
Global
Examine the voting results from last election.
Remember too that Uhuru cannot take credit for Devolution which he and Ruto nearly killed in Naivasha the same day they discarded Provinces (killing Rift Valley) and making the units unviable. Imagine how much cash RV would have had at its command and the power of its Governor? Uhuru simply cheated Ruto (and exploited his hot temper and anger against Raila) to achieve what his father had tried and failed. Kenyatta Snr wanted RV split in to small units some of which would be swallowed by Central either physically or by pumping people in them.
Laikipia is gone, Nakuru is gone and soon Kajiado will follow.
The locals don't see it that way but others have a clear agenda.
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Omollo is of course a pathological liar. 3-tier systems was rejected way before it got to Naivasha. This was through public submission of views and COE had struck it out. I don't see the need of it personally. It serve no purpose. 47 counties in 43 tribes is the good deal. I only hope the few people like Kuria, Sabaots & Baringo's Njemps & Pokot such minorities can be allowed to move to counties they feel comfortable. For example Kuria should join Kisii country from Migori - I think there - they have better chance - Sabaot in Mt elgon should move to TransNzoia. The Genesis of our districts & prov is 1962 - when some Prof went round collecting views and kenyans wanted to have tribal districts.
I hope the next boundary review will be bold to correct the few injustices...by re-drawing boundaries along tribal lines - and for small tribes-asking where they best fit. For example in Baringo - Tiaty should join West Pokot. Njemps should move to Laikipia. Kuria to Kisii. Sabaot to Tranzoia. Iteso are in a mess - if luhyas decides to conspire against them.
We all know Gema played ODM in Naivasha but for the best. I supported parliamentary system but not the 16-region federalism due to tribalism. Also Kenya is not rich enough for 3-tier system. Devolution is about equity and localizing solutions so Rift Valley "county" would not cut as it is hardly homogeneous as a region. Present counties are perfectly suited for that. Recall they were the former colonial districts - even in the US they are the distinctive administrative units.
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After PEV Kenyans are allergic to open tribalism so this is unlikely to fly. That is why the counties defaulted to mzungu districts. Also after the Ligare dupe Gema are unlikely to concede to any reviews that won't favor them.
Omollo is of course a pathological liar. 3-tier systems was rejected way before it got to Naivasha. This was through public submission of views and COE had struck it out. I don't see the need of it personally. It serve no purpose. 47 counties in 43 tribes is the good deal. I only hope the few people like Kuria, Sabaots & Baringo's Njemps & Pokot such minorities can be allowed to move to counties they feel comfortable. For example Kuria should join Kisii country from Migori - I think there - they have better chance - Sabaot in Mt elgon should move to TransNzoia. The Genesis of our districts & prov is 1962 - when some Prof went round collecting views and kenyans wanted to have tribal districts.
I hope the next boundary review will be bold to correct the few injustices...by re-drawing boundaries along tribal lines - and for small tribes-asking where they best fit. For example in Baringo - Tiaty should join West Pokot. Njemps should move to Laikipia. Kuria to Kisii. Sabaot to Tranzoia. Iteso are in a mess - if luhyas decides to conspire against them.
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Omollo why won't Kalonzo pull the lever in Nairobi for Kidero? Imagine if Kalenjin were 17% of Nairobi and smart alec wanted to purloin them to NASA... WSR would camp there.
(http://www.nipate.org/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=4383.0;attach=246;image)
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Rough MOAS prediction of the next Parliament (MPs, Women Rep & Senate).
Jubilee to maintain their current 56-58% (160 mps+27 women reps) parliamentary majority. They conducted nomination that was largely perceived as free and fair.
Wiper to lose 10 seats - and drop from 28 to 18 mps. This the price kalonzo has to pay for splintering his ukambani base.
ODM basically will maintain about the same number of MPS - the same ODM nomination was repeated.
I expected independents to double to around 21 - representing 6%.
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MOAS 2nd June.
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MOAS 2nd June.
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This Prof Honrsby seem to endorse MOAS totally.
Prof Hornsby says: “Nationally, the combination of registration numbers, turnout and an ethnically and historically voting-based preference model still predicts a first round win for Uhuru and Ruto, by 53% to 46% (with a maximum of 1% of votes to other candidates)”.
He writes: “It suggests Kenyatta and Ruto will get roughly 8.5 million votes (of which more than five million will come from the Kalenjin and Kikuyu communities) while Odinga and Musyoka will poll 7.5 million, of which approximately three million will come from Luo and Kamba voters. This would be on a national turnout of 83%...
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Horny is just stealing you moas
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I think at this point we can definitely wait for the nane/nane numbers unless you are planning to put some monies with the bookies.
Horny is just stealing you moas
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30 days.. I hope Omollo will also put his MOAS here so that we can compare notes.. Last time the argument was between RV Pundit and some guy monikier.. I cannot remember the guy name. I think this guy went by Poor Kaloi. During counting his model unraveled and all he back his hope on was that Uhuru wont score 50+1.. Poor Kaloi spent time review the constitution and trying to determine what 50+1 meant. After Uhuru attained 50+1 the man went berserk and spun conspiracy that the elections were stolen. After Supreme court he quit in a huff never to be seen back
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National assembly set to be yet again dominated by Jubilee. Jubilee to get around 190 mps(55%),NASA 130 mps and Independent & small parties with 30mps out of 337 elected mps in National Assembly.
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The governor race - at least 17 counties are still battleground according to MOAS.
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Omollo...try basic maths classes again...and add jubilee column with help of manual calculator.That is crap.You forgot mandera.Assigned bomet and westpokot to battleground while moving garisa and wajir to cord stronghold.tranzoia is not nasa stronghold...it battleground
Interesting recent posts. Do you still think Uhuru will take Nairobi? and that Mandera is a Jubilee zone? How about Bomet? You still have the same views?
I am looking for your MOAS to finally examine the Presidential Vote
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I am surprised Meru is not swing/close... some like Kirinyaga are not even close - Waiguru is way ahead.
The governor race - at least 17 counties are still battleground according to MOAS.
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Look for final moas
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Pundit, look al shabab analysis of RV from Nairobi Law Monthly
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Hiyo ni bangi. Isaac and NASA are trending towards single digit as we speak in Kipsigis land. Shida ya Isaac ni kubwa - he basically did nothing with devolved money - so his mashinani call rings very very hollow.
Pundit, look al shabab analysis of RV from Nairobi Law Monthly
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I would not dismiss the many Kalenjin Leaders that Ruto had sidelined who have now joined NASA. With Mandago joining them openly only an ostrich would continue burying its head in beach sand as the hyenas scream towards it.
Note that the author being dismissed as high on weed, wrote this long before Mandago came out openly in revolt.
Pundit
It is unbecoming of you to hurl insults at a person instead of countering his arguments. Where I spend most of my life, it is recorded as nothing said; no defence offered and the contentious opinion goes on record as uncontested. It is simple to strike ad hominem off the record.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DFuPEnfXYAQsWQD.jpg)
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Where I come from - people wait for 10 days - if they don't trust what I am telling them. I am not new here or in my punditry. My record speaks for itself.
I would not dismiss the many Kalenjin Leaders that Ruto had sidelined who have now joined NASA. With Mandago joining them openly only an ostrich would continue burying its head in beach sand as the hyenas scream towards it.
Note that the author being dismissed as high on weed, wrote this long before Mandago came out openly in revolt.
Pundit
It is unbecoming of you to hurl insults at a person instead of countering his arguments. Where I spend most of my life, it is recorded as nothing said; no defence offered and the contentious opinion goes on record as uncontested. It is simple to strike ad hominem off the record.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DFuPEnfXYAQsWQD.jpg)
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I would not dismiss the many Kalenjin Leaders that Ruto had sidelined who have now joined NASA. With Mandago joining them openly only an ostrich would continue burying its head in beach sand as the hyenas scream towards it.
Note that the author being dismissed as high on weed, wrote this long before Mandago came out openly in revolt.
Pundit
It is unbecoming of you to hurl insults at a person instead of countering his arguments. Where I spend most of my life, it is recorded as nothing said; no defence offered and the contentious opinion goes on record as uncontested. It is simple to strike ad hominem off the record.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DFuPEnfXYAQsWQD.jpg)
Omorlo
Can RVs be so disgusted with Kikuyus that they literally walk off of DPORK into an ambiguous position by a less influential Rutto?
The analysis here seems to me to have started with wishful thinking followed by judicious search for a smoking gun
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Raila will get less Kalenjin votes than he got in 2013... ground 411.Kalenjin are very strategic.Might have to revise Moas a little bit.i really pity Isaac.
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That's not possible because WSR got the maximum possible Kalenjin support in 2013. With Kanu and CCM and Oruto fatigue, he has to get less this time around. Your problem is that you think no change took place since 2013. The only thing you can bet on is change.
Raila will get less Kalenjin votes than he got in 2013... ground 411.Kalenjin are very strategic.Might have to revise Moas a little bit.i really pity Isaac.
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Kichwa I won't be pundit if I didn't know how to read politics
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Your track record is bogus. You are stuck with Mutai Ngunyi's tyranny of numbers of 2013 which even Ngunyi has already abandoned. This campaign is about high cost of living, poverty that has afflicted many Kenyans, hunger, corruption and exclusion. Its not about tribal politics which is your specialty.
Kichwa I won't be pundit if I didn't know how to read politics
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Of course on the 9th - after tribal moas is confirmed - you'll claimed it was rigged. Even when the issues is an ISSUE (like constitution) - leave alone election - kenyans will vote tribe. Even if we did a national referendum on abortion - I can easily develop Moas - after listening to what Uhuru, Raila, Ruto, Kalonzo, Mudavadi,Wetangula and all the key players will say --If Raila say he supports abortion - nearly all Luos will support it - ignoring their religious teaching. The Luos will cook a lot of excuses or reasons for voting for abortion - but at end of the day - we will know they are voting because Raila said so. The same is true for Kalenjin or GEMA.
I mean we saw in 2010 - when all churches - catholic and name the big ones - opposed the constitution - but nobody listened to them. In 2010 - I did MOAS that showed NO -33% yes 67%--and it came down to 31% versus 68%.
Your track record is bogus. You are stuck with Mutai Ngunyi's tyranny of numbers of 2013 which even Ngunyi has already abandoned. This campaign is about high cost of living, poverty that has afflicted many Kenyans, hunger, corruption and exclusion. Its not about tribal politics which is your specialty.
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My take on MOAS: they will largely hold... BUT
1. Lower turnout in GEMA and Kalenjin may send them into a spin. I think lack of ICC is a big factor than you (Pundit) imagine. You say you have modeled higher turnout in Coast and Turkana due to MRC. How do you factor MRC and not ICC?
2. Swing counties - you have some of these wrong. I agree with Omollo Turkana will vote 80% NASA... due to oil. You make much of defections to Jubilee here - most of them were obtained through bribery and will have little effect on the voters. However this will not dent the outcome due to their low population.
3. Governors - same as 2 above. A significant number of your projections won't pun out. With just 2013 experience - when veterans like Kiraitu thought Senate is powerful - I don't think you have mastered county. That is why you are getting places like Turkana & Bungoma so wrong. At least Kwale, Turkana, Meru, Tharaka your MOAS will fail.
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MOAS is all about ouruto winning. If Ouru does not win then MOAS has failed Period.
My take on MOAS: they will largely hold... BUT
1. Lower turnout in GEMA and Kalenjin may send them into a spin. I think lack of ICC is a big factor than you (Pundit) imagine. You say you have modeled higher turnout in Coast and Turkana due to MRC. How do you factor MRC and not ICC?
2. Swing counties - you have some of these wrong. I agree with Omollo Turkana will vote 80% NASA... due to oil. You make much of defections to Jubilee here - most of them were obtained through bribery and will have little effect on the voters. However this will not dent the outcome due to their low population.
3. Governors - same as 2 above. A significant number of your projections won't pun out. With just 2013 experience - when veterans like Kiraitu thought Senate is powerful - I don't think you have mastered county. That is why you are getting places like Turkana & Bungoma so wrong. At least Kwale, Turkana, Meru, Tharaka your MOAS will fail.
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1). There was high turn out everywhere...highest in Luo Nyanza..but even in counties nobody thought they would turn up...they all turn up around 86%..Kalenjn+GEMA turned up slightly higher than that...historically they've been turning out higher than national average...I see no reason to change this.
2) Turkana - I disagree - I think Turkana will listen to their leaders -- majority who quit to join Jubilee - but still Raila will win but by less margins than 2013 -- that NANOK is winning by 77% is clearly doggy polls.
3) Governors - Clearly it no easy task to predict 47 elections - I'd be happy if I get 3/4 right.
My take on MOAS: they will largely hold... BUT
1. Lower turnout in GEMA and Kalenjin may send them into a spin. I think lack of ICC is a big factor than you (Pundit) imagine. You say you have modeled higher turnout in Coast and Turkana due to MRC. How do you factor MRC and not ICC?
2. Swing counties - you have some of these wrong. I agree with Omollo Turkana will vote 80% NASA... due to oil. You make much of defections to Jubilee here - most of them were obtained through bribery and will have little effect on the voters. However this will not dent the outcome due to their low population.
3. Governors - same as 2 above. A significant number of your projections won't pun out. With just 2013 experience - when veterans like Kiraitu thought Senate is powerful - I don't think you have mastered county. That is why you are getting places like Turkana & Bungoma so wrong. At least Kwale, Turkana, Meru, Tharaka your MOAS will fail.
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I see you ignored this...
Of course on the 9th - after tribal moas is confirmed - you'll claimed it was rigged. Even when the issues is an ISSUE (like constitution) - leave alone election - kenyans will vote tribe. Even if we did a national referendum on abortion - I can easily develop Moas - after listening to what Uhuru, Raila, Ruto, Kalonzo, Mudavadi,Wetangula and all the key players will say --If Raila say he supports abortion - nearly all Luos will support it - ignoring their religious teaching. The Luos will cook a lot of excuses or reasons for voting for abortion - but at end of the day - we will know they are voting because Raila said so. The same is true for Kalenjin or GEMA.
I mean we saw in 2010 - when all churches - catholic and name the big ones - opposed the constitution - but nobody listened to them. In 2010 - I did MOAS that showed NO -33% yes 67%--and it came down to 31% versus 68%.
MOAS is all about ouruto winning. If Ouru does not win then MOAS has failed Period.
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On the 9th, MOAS will be dead and buried. MOAS is all about 2013 rigged elections. NOT happening again.
I see you ignored this...
Of course on the 9th - after tribal moas is confirmed - you'll claimed it was rigged. Even when the issues is an ISSUE (like constitution) - leave alone election - kenyans will vote tribe. Even if we did a national referendum on abortion - I can easily develop Moas - after listening to what Uhuru, Raila, Ruto, Kalonzo, Mudavadi,Wetangula and all the key players will say --If Raila say he supports abortion - nearly all Luos will support it - ignoring their religious teaching. The Luos will cook a lot of excuses or reasons for voting for abortion - but at end of the day - we will know they are voting because Raila said so. The same is true for Kalenjin or GEMA.
I mean we saw in 2010 - when all churches - catholic and name the big ones - opposed the constitution - but nobody listened to them. In 2010 - I did MOAS that showed NO -33% yes 67%--and it came down to 31% versus 68%.
MOAS is all about ouruto winning. If Ouru does not win then MOAS has failed Period.
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On the 9th, MOAS will be dead and buried. MOAS is all about 2013 rigged elections. NOT happening again.
I see you ignored this...
Of course on the 9th - after tribal moas is confirmed - you'll claimed it was rigged. Even when the issues is an ISSUE (like constitution) - leave alone election - kenyans will vote tribe. Even if we did a national referendum on abortion - I can easily develop Moas - after listening to what Uhuru, Raila, Ruto, Kalonzo, Mudavadi,Wetangula and all the key players will say --If Raila say he supports abortion - nearly all Luos will support it - ignoring their religious teaching. The Luos will cook a lot of excuses or reasons for voting for abortion - but at end of the day - we will know they are voting because Raila said so. The same is true for Kalenjin or GEMA.
I mean we saw in 2010 - when all churches - catholic and name the big ones - opposed the constitution - but nobody listened to them. In 2010 - I did MOAS that showed NO -33% yes 67%--and it came down to 31% versus 68%.
MOAS is all about ouruto winning. If Ouru does not win then MOAS has failed Period.
So if MOAS works you will shout rigging, and if it doesn't, you will shout issues?
Either rigging or issues will carry the day.
This is the NASWA's mindset; either they win or their victory is stolen.
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Your track record is bogus. You are stuck with Mutai Ngunyi's tyranny of numbers of 2013 which even Ngunyi has already abandoned. This campaign is about high cost of living, poverty that has afflicted many Kenyans, hunger, corruption and exclusion. Its not about tribal politics which is your specialty.
Kichwa I won't be pundit if I didn't know how to read politics
Mutahi stole the idea the tyranny of numbers from Choo.com.. When Pundit presented his MOAS I commented that it was almost impossible to beat the tribal numbers of TNA then.. The importance of MOAS on political punditry is that it really gives you a baseline. The baseline for Raila is to beat his numbers in RV, Central and Meru.. He has also to improve turnout in COAST areas like Kilifi and make sure that Get out to vote in Ukambani and western improves greatly.. NASA should spend its resources of which I doubt it has to get out to the vote. anyway my gut feeling is that MOAS is right on bulls eye and we will have Uhuru ruto regime for another 15 uninterrupted years
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Of course on the 9th - after tribal moas is confirmed - you'll claimed it was rigged. Even when the issues is an ISSUE (like constitution) - leave alone election - kenyans will vote tribe. Even if we did a national referendum on abortion - I can easily develop Moas - after listening to what Uhuru, Raila, Ruto, Kalonzo, Mudavadi,Wetangula and all the key players will say --If Raila say he supports abortion - nearly all Luos will support it - ignoring their religious teaching. The Luos will cook a lot of excuses or reasons for voting for abortion - but at end of the day - we will know they are voting because Raila said so. The same is true for Kalenjin or GEMA.
I mean we saw in 2010 - when all churches - catholic and name the big ones - opposed the constitution - but nobody listened to them. In 2010 - I did MOAS that showed NO -33% yes 67%--and it came down to 31% versus 68%.
Your track record is bogus. You are stuck with Mutai Ngunyi's tyranny of numbers of 2013 which even Ngunyi has already abandoned. This campaign is about high cost of living, poverty that has afflicted many Kenyans, hunger, corruption and exclusion. Its not about tribal politics which is your specialty.
Pundit you are so right.. Kenya tribal identity trumps everything. we are stuck with this voting pattern for another century
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Pundito, how much are you giving Jubilee in Machaa
Tifa's 37% looks optimistic
Invalid Tweet ID
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How someone can model higher turnout in NASA but not lower turnout in Jubilee... or MRC but not ICC... I mean we know which of these two was a bigger force in 2013. This election is a toss-up.
Pundit - prepare for NASA victory - and bye bye Arap Ruto - unless Uhuru rigs.
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I have played with turn out - and it doesn't change nothing - 1% change is not small matter. MOAS difference is 8% - 1m plus votes. NASA win is impossible.
How someone can model higher turnout in NASA but not lower turnout in Jubilee... or MRC but not ICC... I mean we know which of these two was a bigger force in 2013. This election is a toss-up.
Pundit - prepare for NASA victory - and bye bye Arap Ruto - unless Uhuru rigs.
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I had given Uhuru 12% - which is 1/3 of tiff -- let wait for Synovate/IPSOS final poll tomorrow - but I am inclined to do a final MOAS -- Machakos/Kitui/Makueni - might put 20% - but not when I do that - it won't change the %. It remains 53% versus 46%. If I do 30% - then we get 54% versus 45%.
(http://www.nipate.org/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=4710.0;attach=256;image)
Pundito, how much are you giving Jubilee in Machaa
Tifa's 37% looks optimistic
Invalid Tweet ID
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Pundit model 70% GEMA-Kalenjin turnout and see... lower Jubilee turnout is BIG ELEPHANT you have not addressed.
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Pundit model 70% GEMA-Kalenjin turnout and see... lower Jubilee turnout is BIG ELEPHANT you have not addressed.
Pundit is always saying something to the effect that rigging in the strong-holds is guaranteed: I guess this means that actual voter turnout does not matter. They will be "filled" to the needed levels.
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Pundit model 70% GEMA-Kalenjin turnout and see... lower Jubilee turnout is BIG ELEPHANT you have not addressed.
Pundit is always saying something to the effect that rigging in the strong-holds is guaranteed: I guess this means that actual voter turnout does not matter. They will be "filled" to the needed levels.
Exactly he models stuffing. More crucially he ignores big GOTV forces like ICC - which he has replaced with SGR/development - while fully acknowledging MRC. He is not properly objective.
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IF WAJIR OR ISIOLO OR MARSABIT HAD 86% IN 2013--WHAT MAKES YOU THINK GEMA AND RV WILL HAVE 70%.yOURE NUTS. TURN OUT IS NO LONGER AN ISSUES. NATIONAL AVERAGE IS 86%.GEMA and Kalenjin are about 90% - just 4% more than average. Luo Nyanza around 92%. i am predicting something close to 89% turn out...is possible...meaning turn out advantage is gone. governor races is the reason....plus those others seats..that seem to be drawing people to voting both.
Previously only tribes of the presidential candidate would be excited to vote - now with governor - nearly everyone has something to vote for-- so for now it's 86% everyone - and 90% for those with presidential candidates.
Pundit model 70% GEMA-Kalenjin turnout and see... lower Jubilee turnout is BIG ELEPHANT you have not addressed.
Pundit is always saying something to the effect that rigging in the strong-holds is guaranteed: I guess this means that actual voter turnout does not matter. They will be "filled" to the needed levels.
Exactly he models stuffing. More crucially he ignores big GOTV forces like ICC - which he has replaced with SGR/development - while fully acknowledging MRC. He is not properly objective.
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So you say.
Sorry turnout is anything but a given. Mandera we know at least was stuffed - which you swiftly degraded to rumors - while admitting now and then that "strongholds" and "remote areas" are likely to be rigged. NASA has been fighting tooth and nail to thwart rigging - and that plus ICC are the biggest news since 2013. You must think we are fools to believe Raila can spend sleepless nights hammering IEBC and insisting electoral reforms - instead of campaigning.
Uhuru unlike Kibaki & Moi cannot rig - without KDF or such brazen methods - because most loopholes are sealed. And no ICC... 2013 in Kiambu one could not buy kumi kumi or even sukuma - without ink stain on the little finger - because "lazima tuokoe kijana yetu". No such thing this time... meaning drunkards won't have to vote.
RVGEMA turnout as the big elephant. Soon we shall see.
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Confirmed. You're another omollosque nut case.First look at MOAS and focus on the turn out column - see if there is any big difference btw counties. Have you even cared to look at turn out data - 2013 - and all historical data - since 92 - like I have looked at. I have increased turn out for places that had low turn out - coast+turkana - and in my final MOAS - I may move the average from 86% to 89% - coz I think turn out will be as crazy as 2013. Before that average turn out was 50-60-70- 72 - around those figures.
What changed in 2013 - was six seats - I doubt people then knew how impactful governors esp were going to be - so I expect really high turn out everywhere - we could see near 90% - 70% turn out in RV/GEMA is really crazy. Go slow on bhang.
So you say.
Sorry turnout is anything but a given. Mandera we know at least was stuffed - which you swiftly degraded to rumors - while admitting now and then that "strongholds" and "remote areas" are likely to be rigged. NASA has been fighting tooth and nail to thwart rigging - and that plus ICC are the biggest news since 2013. You must think we are fools to believe Raila can spend sleepless nights hammering IEBC and insisting electoral reforms - instead of campaigning.
Uhuru unlike Kibaki & Moi cannot rig - without KDF or such brazen methods - because most loopholes are sealed. And no ICC... 2013 in Kiambu one could not buy kumi kumi or even sukuma - without ink stain on the little finger - because "lazima tuokoe kijana yetu". No such thing this time... meaning drunkards won't have to vote.
RVGEMA turnout as the big elephant. Soon we shall see.
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What happened in 2013 is ICC - not governor - which explains the dismal turnout in Turkana & Coast who couldn't bothered... while extra high in stuffed Mandera where Uhuru had 90%.
In 2017, oil and such bread & butter issues may make Turkana to show up big time anti-Jubilee... but their low total makes even 100% turnout irrelevant anyway.
Now in RVGEMA - without ICC - there is nothing life-or-death like Moi or Matiba as folks have watched many transitions with their sons at the top... unlike Luos who have chip on the shoulder and very sour grapes about 20 more years of Kikuyu & Kalenjin. Their homework is to successfully co-opt Luhyas, Kisii, Mijikenda, etc.
Those historical trends you prop up were driven by factors of the day. Nomads & starving & ill-informed people would worry about food and safety... instead of voting... or well back the benevolent govt.
It really is just opinion you see? Nothing magical about yours. Go slow on muguka.
Confirmed. You're another omollosque nut case.First look at MOAS and focus on the turn out column - see if there is any big difference btw counties. Have you even cared to look at turn out data - 2013 - and all historical data - since 92 - like I have looked at. I have increased turn out for places that had low turn out - coast+turkana - and in my final MOAS - I may move the average from 86% to 89% - coz I think turn out will be as crazy as 2013. Before that average turn out was 50-60-70- 72 - around those figures.
What changed in 2013 - was six seats - I doubt people then knew how impactful governors esp were going to be - so I expect really high turn out everywhere - we could see near 90% - 70% turn out in RV/GEMA is really crazy. Go slow on bhang.
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Recall how we ended up with 700 voters per polling station... after all the photo ops btwn Duale, Kiraitu & Orengo that agreed to send home Isaak Hassan - Jubilee took an about turn and revised 500 to 700. They wanted NASA to take the bait and call for mass action - take to the street during voter registration season :D - which NASA quickly smelled the rat and called their bluff. Classic sleight of hand. That was their best card in 2013 - plus ICC of course.
Now if dead voters are stopped from voting - you can see why only "historical turnout" - 89% - can help Jubilee. Because people have discovered devolution is so great... never mind empty unga shelves.
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500 max would mean maybe 60-70K polling station - budgetary implication would be huge. You're seeing ghost everywhere like omollo. 1 week and we will know for sure the turn out. So let this rest for now. Do you own MOAS if you disagree.
Recall how we ended up with 700 voters per polling station... after all the photo ops btwn Duale, Kiraitu & Orengo that agreed to send home Isaak Hassan - Jubilee took an about turn and revised 500 to 700. They wanted NASA to take the bait and call for mass action - take to the street during voter registration season :D - which NASA quickly smelled the rat and called their bluff. Classic sleight of hand. That was their best card in 2013 - plus ICC of course.
Now if dead voters are stopped from voting - you can see why only "historical turnout" - 89% - can help Jubilee. Because people have discovered devolution is so great... never mind empty unga shelves.
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More stormy weather in Punditville...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DGCzEgFWsAATr6d?format=jpg)
https://www.tuko.co.ke/248183-latest-poll-shows-governor-mombasa-machakos-meru-counties.html
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Mutua hangs on against surging Wavinya Ndeti.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DGCue70WsAAOYDI?format=jpg)
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Robina, the same polls give Uhunye 37% for Machaa. That's insane by all stretch of imagination. So don't discredit MOAS on account of an opinion poll.
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Hi Pastor -
My conscience is clear. I only disagree with the MOAS on turnout and a few governors & counties, namely Meru, Tharaka, Kwale, Turkana
Meru - polls consistently support my position on Munya Meruism's supremacy while MOAS are stuck on sub-tribes.
I also have beef with Nairobi MOAS where I believe the Raila 56% v 40% Uhuru poll makes perfect sense unlike MOAS borrowing from 2013 illogically.
Only low Jubilee ngome turnout can flip the outcome... this possibility makes this election a tossup.
Robina, the same polls give Uhunye 37% for Machaa. That's insane by all stretch of imagination. So don't discredit MOAS on account of an opinion poll.
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Hi Pastor -
My conscience is clear. I only disagree with the MOAS on turnout and a few governors & counties, namely Meru, Tharaka, Kwale, Turkana
Meru - polls consistently support my position on Munya Meruism's supremacy while MOAS are stuck on sub-tribes.
I also have beef with Nairobi MOAS where I believe the Raila 56% v 40% Uhuru poll makes perfect sense unlike MOAS borrowing from 2013 illogically.
Only low Jubilee ngome turnout can flip the outcome... this possibility makes this election a tossup.
Robina, the same polls give Uhunye 37% for Machaa. That's insane by all stretch of imagination. So don't discredit MOAS on account of an opinion poll.
What turnout do you have in mind for Jubilee strongholds on average?
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Hi Pastor -
My conscience is clear. I only disagree with the MOAS on turnout and a few governors & counties, namely Meru, Tharaka, Kwale, Turkana
Meru - polls consistently support my position on Munya Meruism's supremacy while MOAS are stuck on sub-tribes.
I also have beef with Nairobi MOAS where I believe the Raila 56% v 40% Uhuru poll makes perfect sense unlike MOAS borrowing from 2013 illogically.
Only low Jubilee ngome turnout can flip the outcome... this possibility makes this election a tossup.
Robina, the same polls give Uhunye 37% for Machaa. That's insane by all stretch of imagination. So don't discredit MOAS on account of an opinion poll.
What turnout do you have in mind for Jubilee strongholds on average?
80% - like other SSA democracies - TZ, Ghana, RSA, etc.
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TIFA's prediction for the Malindi by-election was within their stated +/- 2% error margin.
Also, they correctly predicted Jubilee's Kiambu primaries, which Infotrak got horribly wrong.
As has been stated here, TIFA is led by the former MD of Ipsos Kenya, who was replaced by the Kiswahili speaking mzungu.
http://tifaresearch.com/index.php/2016/03/09/tifa-got-it-right-in-the-malindi-by-election/
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Interesting.. will relook Maggie stew again.
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Both Maggy and Angela agree on Machakos
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DGEixSfXsAE83Ov.jpg:large)
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Dear Nipate,
How do we settle this MOAS matter in light of the hacking claims? Can we record it as a mystery?
The real Nipate election is whether MOAS are venerable or will go bust like the US opinion polls - the MOAS referendum.
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I am starting to wonder whether the 300 pound Russian hacker was using MOAS. Pundit was screaming that Raila should concede barely an hour after the Data started flowing in. He seems to know exactly what was coming.
Dear Nipate,
How do we settle this MOAS matter in light of the hacking claims? Can we record it as a mystery?
The real Nipate election is whether MOAS are venerable or will go bust like the US opinion polls - the MOAS referendum.
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Pundit is a hacker - the unshaven basement-dwelling sort - unlike the phony image presented here. Any hacking would be more out of mischief or adventure than political conspiracy. I doubt he has ever met Farouk let alone Ruto.
I am starting to wonder whether the 300 pound Russian hacker was using MOAS. Pundit was screaming that Raila should concede barely an hour after the Data started flowing in. He seems to know exactly what was coming.
Dear Nipate,
How do we settle this MOAS matter in light of the hacking claims? Can we record it as a mystery?
The real Nipate election is whether MOAS are venerable or will go bust like the US opinion polls - the MOAS referendum.
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Robina, I know you are good at this, but could you be wrong this time. How many people with his level of intelligence and training have the time to put together a MOAS just as a hobby and update it all the time without being paid. He could make a lot of money doing that for Ouru campaign. I think he and the professor work together and get paid big bucks. He leaks it here so that he can get a feedback from a few Kenyans. That is why he is always sure of the outcome. He helps create the outcome.
Pundit is a hacker - the unshaven basement-dwelling sort - unlike the phony image presented here. Any hacking would be more out of mischief or adventure than political conspiracy. I doubt he has ever met Farouk let alone Ruto.
I am starting to wonder whether the 300 pound Russian hacker was using MOAS. Pundit was screaming that Raila should concede barely an hour after the Data started flowing in. He seems to know exactly what was coming.
Dear Nipate,
How do we settle this MOAS matter in light of the hacking claims? Can we record it as a mystery?
The real Nipate election is whether MOAS are venerable or will go bust like the US opinion polls - the MOAS referendum.
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Kimetrica psyop......He even knew how fast the data would be coming in lol
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People get gigs all the time by online presence - I have - got gaming jobs from people I met online. But we're a dime a dozen. The pundits, analysts, Ngunyis, etc are far too many for Itumbi's picking. RVP has been doing this a long time - I doubt he is ever paid. Unlike folks like Mutahi Ngunyi who is getting corrupt "consultancy" deals from NYS.
Trump and Clinton hired countless bots to dispense fake news. What exactly would RVP be paid for - prep Nipate's handful of readers for rigging?
Robina, I know you are good at this, but could you be wrong this time. How many people with his level of intelligence and training have the time to put together a MOAS just as a hobby and update it all the time without being paid. He could make a lot of money doing that for Ouru campaign. I think he and the professor work together and get paid big bucks. He leaks it here so that he can get a feedback from a few Kenyans. That is why he is always sure of the outcome. He helps create the outcome.
Pundit is a hacker - the unshaven basement-dwelling sort - unlike the phony image presented here. Any hacking would be more out of mischief or adventure than political conspiracy. I doubt he has ever met Farouk let alone Ruto.
I am starting to wonder whether the 300 pound Russian hacker was using MOAS. Pundit was screaming that Raila should concede barely an hour after the Data started flowing in. He seems to know exactly what was coming.
Dear Nipate,
How do we settle this MOAS matter in light of the hacking claims? Can we record it as a mystery?
The real Nipate election is whether MOAS are venerable or will go bust like the US opinion polls - the MOAS referendum.
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Indeed robina.this site has readership of 100 folks
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Dear Nipate,
How do we settle this MOAS matter in light of the hacking claims? Can we record it as a mystery?
The real Nipate election is whether MOAS are venerable or will go bust like the US opinion polls - the MOAS referendum.
I think you shouldn't factor in impossibly dumb (if true) allegations.
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I dont suspect Pundit of being hired by Jubilee but I do think he knows insiders and often lets slip what he has heard in his boastful argumentation, lol! :D
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Which insider.I have never met any politician since 2002 when i saw Kipngeno Arap ngeny in his maji hse office.I am good in reading politics coz my dad bought me newspapers since I was small kid and I understand Kenya inside out.
I dont suspect Pundit of being hired by Jubilee but I do think he knows insiders and often lets slip what he has heard in his boastful argumentation, lol! :D
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Which insider.I have never met any politician since 2002 when i saw Kipngeno Arap ngeny in his maji hse office.I am good in reading politics coz my dad bought me newspapers since I was small kid and I understand Kenya inside out.I dont suspect Pundit of being hired by Jubilee but I do think he knows insiders and often lets slip what he has heard in his boastful argumentation, lol! :D
Sawa, but Moas is not the issue for me. Where did you hear that Msando was planning things with opposition?
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Kadame,
Right after the reports of his death came out, Baba Lupita on NTV morning show AMLive extolling the virtues of Musando claimed that not too long before his death they had dinner at Norfolk and then afterwards, Musando told him he had to get back to work. This was after 2300H. Nyongo was impressed by his commitment .
Nyongo is a senior ODM party honcho and very close to Babu. Had such a meeting been between a Jubilee operative like Duale, hell would have broken loose. Will get a clip
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Kadame,
Right after the reports of his death came out, Baba Lupita on NTV morning show AMLive extolling the virtues of Musando claimed that not too long before his death they had dinner at Norfolk and then afterwards, Musando told him he had to get back to work. This was after 2300H. Nyongo was impressed by his commitment .
Nyongo is a senior ODM party honcho and very close to Babu. Had such a meeting been between a Jubilee operative like Duale, hell would have broken loose. Will get a clip
Ah, I see. Didnt see that. Ok then, suspicions of bar talks with jubilee insiders withdrawn.
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Precisely.Add fact that he was from Siaya n married to Nyongo and held critical position and you just need to add 1 plus 1 to realize NIS had keen interest on him.You don't need to rocket science to know chiloba or chebukati are under 24 hrs surviallance and meeting NASA folks is death wish.
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Kadame,
I'm sorry, it was not on AMLive, rather it was on 2100H News, on Monday, August 1st. Msando's body had been identified earlier on that day
Watch from 10:00 Nyong'o speaking of their dinner
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Mutua has worked for Machakos but he is done. He just like Isaac picked (bad) cards too early - seems everybody was certain that Kalonzo won't say no to the Jubilee billions. The anti-kikuyu sentiments among the Kamba could be surprisingly higher than the Luos!! This must be what informed/complicated Kalonzo's game plan. NASA has Kamba vote under lock and key if these sentiments persists.
I am glad when someone states facts without considering vested interests.
I find it comical reading about Mutua's popularity and how he will beat Kalonzo. When this comes from Pundit, I find it even harder to believe his percentages (the ones he grabs from the polluted Kampala air).
Mutau is going nowhere. Jirongo is going nowhere! Nyaga is going nowhere!
Kalonzo will get the highest share of the vote in Ukambani he has ever gotten - even when he ran for president. He has consolidated his hold, he has Ngilu in the tent and no real opposition to him. He is the King having brought in Jubilee surrogates like Wavinya Ndeti and Kibaki holdover Kibwana. The rest are Jubilee Tumbocrats like Mutambo Joe and Ndile etc. They have zero traction.
Mutua's candidates in Ukambani have changed tactics and are supporting NASA and opposing Jubilee. Several asked him to stay away and when he turned up, they were no show.
Any way, hatuko mbali, Pundit will pay 100 USD to Veritas if Mutua loses. I will pay the same if he wins. Mine will be donated to any charity Veritas chooses.
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BUMP
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Thanks for bumping this so we can remember how horrible your understanding of kenyan politics is. NASA win was improbable if not impossible. And this thread is clearly illustration
BUMP
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You could not possibly make it to my undergraduate class.
How does this thread "clearly" illustrate?
Thanks for bumping this so we can remember how horrible your understanding of kenyan politics is. NASA win was improbable if not impossible. And this thread is clearly illustration
BUMP
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I bumped this thread to prove how you insisted on Mutua, Mvurya and Lusaka winning. I can add on Mung'aro etc. It was clear then as now that you were privy to the planned rigging.
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Whoever hires you to teach anywhere engages in criminal negligence.
When you bumped it what was it suppose to illustrate?
You could not possibly make it to my undergraduate class.
How does this thread "clearly" illustrate?
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Kenya can save a lot of money by just adopting MOASS. Really no need spending billions of shillings to do an ethnic census.
I bumped this thread to prove how you insisted on Mutua, Mvurya and Lusaka winning. I can add on Mung'aro etc. It was clear then as now that you were privy to the planned rigging.
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Whoever hires you to teach anywhere engages in criminal negligence.
When you bumped it what was it suppose to illustrate?
Look somewhere in the last 4 posts for your answer and understand why you would never have made it to my class.
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You mean: Kenya can save a lot of money by just adopting Davis Chirchir's opinion on who should be "elected"?.
Kenya can save a lot of money by just adopting MOASS. Really no need spending billions of shillings to do an ethnic census.
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If Chirchir and I can manufacture PORK - then we must be the MOST powerful men in Kenya. Chirchir just knows how to ran systems and having had a stint at IEBC - that very nice combination - so Jubilee uses him to secure & track results - not rig or hack votes.
You mean: Kenya can save a lot of money by just adopting Davis Chirchir's opinion on who should be "elected"?.
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I thought Pundit fresh MOAS are out. :zen:
Omollo has impressive lawyer tactics.
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He makes them again and again. He withdraws some when Chirchir asks him to. This whole thing was pure witchcraft and he likes to mention voodoo.
I thought Pundit fresh MOAS are out. :zen:
Omollo has impressive lawyer tactics.
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I started MOASS in 2007 and predicted a narrow Raila win - where was Chirchir then. Robina and you just cannot accept the fact that I am way better at reading kenya politics than you'll ever be.
He makes them again and again. He withdraws some when Chirchir asks him to. This whole thing was pure witchcraft and he likes to mention voodoo.
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If you go through the thread you will find me telling you the following:
You predicted an ODM win in 2007 so did we (KM and Omollo)
In 2013 you predicted an Uhuru win: Though I did not participate or publicly offer a prediction, you got it all wrong. Uhuru stole
in 2017 you again predicted an Uhuru win: You got it wrong because Uhuru stole
You predicted Lusaka, Mvurya, Mutua, Mung'aro would win: Mung'aro and Lusaka lost openly while the rest were blatantly and shamelessly rigged in. Two of them preside over a 100% opposition assembly!
So where is your genius bro?
You can "predict" who will be rigged in. You are a JP propaganda machine. As for really gauging the mood on the ground... not as long as you twist and turn facts to suit a narrative handed to you.
I started MOASS in 2007 and predicted a narrow Raila win - where was Chirchir then. Robina and you just cannot accept the fact that I am way better at reading kenya politics than you'll ever be.
He makes them again and again. He withdraws some when Chirchir asks him to. This whole thing was pure witchcraft and he likes to mention voodoo.
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I have predicted elections and referendas in btw - and if we go by our scores - I am definitely way better than you can be. I predicted pork, mps, senates, women rep, govenors race in 2017 and I was way better than many a pollsters.
And my prediciton are not vodoo or rigged - I share why I think XYZ will win or not. There are of course elections that are too close to call - but I have to make a prediction.
I don't follow pollsters blindly - I watch political indicators - and I assign "weights" - and so there is some "sciences" to my predictions - and they are SO DAMN GOOD you think I am part of Chirchir or Ruto rigging plan - people I have never met or interacted with ever.
If you go through the thread you will find me telling you the following:
You predicted an ODM win in 2007 so did we (KM and Omollo)
In 2013 you predicted an Uhuru win: Though I did not participate or publicly offer a prediction, you got it all wrong. Uhuru stole
in 2017 you again predicted an Uhuru win: You got it wrong because Uhuru stole
You predicted Lusaka, Mvurya, Mutua, Mung'aro would win: Mung'aro and Lusaka lost openly while the rest were blatantly and shamelessly rigged in. Two of them preside over a 100% opposition assembly!
So where is your genius bro?
You can "predict" who will be rigged in. You are a JP propaganda machine. As for really gauging the mood on the ground... not as long as you twist and turn facts to suit a narrative handed to you.
I started MOASS in 2007 and predicted a narrow Raila win - where was Chirchir then. Robina and you just cannot accept the fact that I am way better at reading kenya politics than you'll ever be.
He makes them again and again. He withdraws some when Chirchir asks him to. This whole thing was pure witchcraft and he likes to mention voodoo.
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Recap: My MOAS for 2017 August averaged 53% to 46% - final score? 54% versus 45%. None of pollsters came close ; just like they didn't in 2013, 2010 & 2007 (rigged) elections.
Recap : my MOAS for 2017 Nov averaged 98% versus 2% for Raila & others - I scored a bull eye :)
When can do recap of my prediction for senate &
(http://www.nipate.org/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=4710.0;attach=256;image)
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Pundit
Any person who can predict the election of Dr. Alfred Mutua in Machakos or that of Salim Mvurya in Kwale and that or Gideon Mung'aro in Kilifi is either a witchdoctor or privy to electoral fraud. You need to come clean on how you knew and insisted Mutua would win. We all (including you) know he did not.
I can buy the MOASS crap where you make predictions based on plausible guess work. It is not a science and surely you pick up rumor and gossip here and there and cobble all together to get a statement.
However where the rumor, gossip and all points at a charlatan like Mutua losing badly but you doggedly insist he will win... then I begin to really wonder. And as fate would have it your "winners" get the same predetermined percentages 54 51 or 41. I have been studying the latest danger to democracy and that is electronic voting fraud.
I have predicted elections and referendas in btw - and if we go by our scores - I am definitely way better than you can be. I predicted pork, mps, senates, women rep, govenors race in 2013 and I was way better than many a pollsters.
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Could it be because as the Supreme Court ruled: ""Taking the totality of the entire evidence, we are satisfied that the elections were not conducted in accordance to the dictates of the constitution,".
Recap: My MOAS for 2017 August averaged 53% to 46% - final score? 54% versus 45%. None of pollsters came close ; just like they didn't in 2013, 2010 & 2007 (rigged) elections.
Recap : my MOAS for 2017 Nov averaged 98% versus 2% for Raila & others - I scored a bull eye :)
When can do recap of my prediction for senate &
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To predict kenya politics you've to be first just good in understanding kenya ethnic, clan & even sub-clan tapestry. That I believe I am good because I grew up basically herding goats while buried in old newspapers and I have really good if not photographic memory - that is given. I think there is a Prof from Ireland who wrote a book about Kenya politics and he is also very very good in understanding kenyan politics.
I predicted many governor races - I lot some few ones - but I got right many including Kiraitu beating Munya despite all pollsters insisting otherwise - I predicted Isaac Ruto would get a beating of his life and Raila would get less than 10% of Bomet votes - among many other predictions.My final MOAS for Kilifi - has ODM winning big - so I definitely had Kingi winning - Of course there was 3-horse race bitting Kingi, Mungaro and former CS (forget) his name.
Mutua was winning because he had successfully branded himself as exceptional governor & Machakos the "place to be". It was an easy call to make. Right now I am not sure if he can win - because he started 2022 campaigns early and Machakos resident may feel his priorities are elsewhere.
Pundit
Any person who can predict the election of Dr. Alfred Mutua in Machakos or that of Salim Mvurya in Kwale and that or Gideon Mung'aro in Kilifi is either a witchdoctor or privy to electoral fraud. You need to come clean on how you knew and insisted Mutua would win. We all (including you) know he did not.
I can buy the MOASS crap where you make predictions based on plausible guess work. It is not a science and surely you pick up rumor and gossip here and there and cobble all together to get a statement.
However where the rumor, gossip and all points at a charlatan like Mutua losing badly but you doggedly insist he will win... then I begin to really wonder. And as fate would have it your "winners" get the same predetermined percentages 54 51 or 41. I have been studying the latest danger to democracy and that is electronic voting fraud.
I have predicted elections and referendas in btw - and if we go by our scores - I am definitely way better than you can be. I predicted pork, mps, senates, women rep, govenors race in 2013 and I was way better than many a pollsters.
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They wasted kenyan money - because election of August have been upheld by nov re-run and political reality now - UhuRuto remain duly elected and Raila is an opposition leader. The silver lining supreme court shows elections can be annulled.
Could it be because as the Supreme Court ruled: ""Taking the totality of the entire evidence, we are satisfied that the elections were not conducted in accordance to the dictates of the constitution,".
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While you have been busy buried in your old newspapers, I have been getting around. There is no place in Kenya that I have not only been to but have spent less than a week talking to the people.
So when I told you Mutua cannot win in Machakos I knew what I was talking about. When I told you Turkana is ODM I had the facts; When I dismissed Mvurya as paper weight, I spoke knowing what the people thought.
What tribal or clan dynamics exist in Machakos that made you predict a Mutua victory? What kind exist in Bungoma to shamelessly predict a Lusaka victory?
To predict kenya politics you've to be first just good in understanding kenya ethnic, clan & even sub-clan tapestry. That I believe I am good because I grew up basically herding goats while buried in old newspapers and I have really good if not photographic memory - that is given. I think there is a Prof from Ireland who wrote a book about Kenya politics and he is also very very good in understanding kenyan politics.
I predict many governor races - I lot some few ones - but I got right many including Kiraitu beating Munya despite all pollsters insisting otherwise - I predicted Isaac Ruto would get a beating of his life and Raila would get less than 10% of Bomet votes - among many other predictions.
My final MOAS for Kilifi - has ODM winning big - so I definitely had Kingi winning - Of course there was 3-horse race bitting Kingi, Mungaro and former CS (forget) his name.
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First of all, read the pleadings by all the parties, then read the judgment. You have as of this date not done that. When you are done (and hopefully understood) you will be allowed to make comments (whether disparaging or not) about the case.
Right now you are spreading the same rumors based on Cambridge Analytica prepared talking points.
Uhuru won 98% of the vote where he ran against himself. So please save us the nonsense of his "win" being validated. You kept posting the 2013 judgment here and waving it over our heads for 5 years. For once in your life operate with one standard.
They wasted kenyan money - because election of August have been upheld by nov re-run and political reality now - UhuRuto remain duly elected and Raila is an opposition leader. The silver lining supreme court shows elections can be annulled.
Could it be because as the Supreme Court ruled: ""Taking the totality of the entire evidence, we are satisfied that the elections were not conducted in accordance to the dictates of the constitution,".
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Re-read this thread and others from page 1 - and you'll find all my "thoughts" for any prediction I made.
While you have been busy buried in your old newspapers, I have been getting around. There is no place in Kenya that I have not only been to but have spent less than a week talking to the people.
So when I told you Mutua cannot win in Machakos I knew what I was talking about. When I told you Turkana is ODM I had the facts; When I dismissed Mvurya as paper weight, I spoke knowing what the people thought.
What tribal or clan dynamics exist in Machakos that made you predict a Mutua victory? What kind exist in Bungoma to shamelessly predict a Lusaka victory?
To predict kenya politics you've to be first just good in understanding kenya ethnic, clan & even sub-clan tapestry. That I believe I am good because I grew up basically herding goats while buried in old newspapers and I have really good if not photographic memory - that is given. I think there is a Prof from Ireland who wrote a book about Kenya politics and he is also very very good in understanding kenyan politics.
I predict many governor races - I lot some few ones - but I got right many including Kiraitu beating Munya despite all pollsters insisting otherwise - I predicted Isaac Ruto would get a beating of his life and Raila would get less than 10% of Bomet votes - among many other predictions.
My final MOAS for Kilifi - has ODM winning big - so I definitely had Kingi winning - Of course there was 3-horse race bitting Kingi, Mungaro and former CS (forget) his name.
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You have forgotten that I read and read well before I raise anything especially from the archives (which I request Veritas to try to improve the search of). I read through the entire thing. I hence decided to focus on Mutua, Mvurya, Mung'aro and Lusaka.
Re-read this thread and others from page 1 - and you'll find all my "thoughts" for any prediction I made.
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Highlight the section(s) where I make prediction of each...and find my thoughts there. Let me know if that is still not clear.
You have forgotten that I read and read well before I raise anything especially from the archives (which I request Veritas to try to improve the search of). I read through the entire thing. I hence decided to focus on Mutua, Mvurya, Mung'aro and Lusaka.
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Pundit got many hotly contested places like Narok, Bomet and Meru governor MOAS right. There were no credible claims of rigging there. Meru went down to the clan wire contra to my expectation.
I don't recall Pundit's prediction for Busia governor which would be interesting. Because both top contenders were NASA leaning so noone can cry rigging.
Omollo's PORK MOAS were also correct but lacked deep breakdown. He had Raila & NASA winning within his margin of error. We poked a few holes and readjusted to a square Raila loss.
NASA strategist David Ndii also tweeted a Raila loss that he quickly withdrew.
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Final MOAS was here http://www.nipate.org/index.php?topic=4710.0 - which was about 1 month to election - for pork I predicted 53% versus against 46% - final was 54% verus 45%.
And I think I did Final final MOAS - about a week to elections.
Pundit got many hotly contested places like Narok, Bomet and Meru governor MOAS right. There were no credible claims of rigging there. Meru went down to the clan wire contra to my expectation.
I don't recall Pundit's prediction for Busia governor which would be interesting. Because both top contenders were NASA leaning so noone can cry rigging.
Omollo's PORK MOAS were also correct but lacked deep breakdown. He had Raila & NASA winning within his margin of error. We poked a few holes and readjusted to a square Raila loss.
NASA strategist David Ndii also tweeted a Raila loss that he quickly withdrew.
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Robina & Omollo - Here is MOAS on governors versus IEBC - obviously both of you or anybody else never came close.
(http://www.nipate.org/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=5108.0;attach=330;image)
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For more comparison including senate - got 39 right - and 8 wrong - find them here http://www.nipate.org/index.php?topic=5108.msg39094#msg39094
Most of the places I got wrong - were northern kenya - Isiolo to Lamus - in 2022 - need some more work there.
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Omollo will say half the Jubilee governors were rigged in by Chirchir and you :D so it's pointless. Omollo offers no logic for Ruto to rig in Alfred Mutua.
Robina & Omollo - Here is MOAS on governors versus IEBC - obviously both of you or anybody else never came close.
(http://www.nipate.org/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=5108.0;attach=330;image)
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Ruto had nothing to do with it and nowhere have I remotely suggested that Chirchir was working expressly for Ruto.
Omollo will say half the Jubilee governors were rigged in by Chirchir and you :D so it's pointless. Omollo offers no logic for Ruto to rig in Alfred Mutua.
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When you first parted yourself on the back and invited me and others to join in, I recall clearly stating that one can not use contaminated and condemned results to determine the accuracy of your predictions or lack of it. For example can one say you were right that Mutua would win? Since we know he stole the seat, should you be awarded marks for that?
Like I said you simply reported on the rigging plans and went as far as to suggest 52% before landing on 53%. There was also "Professor" Cheeseman and Hornby who were both working for Cambridge Analytica saying the same thing as you.
Please we are not that stupid.
For more comparison including senate - got 39 right - and 8 wrong - find them here http://www.nipate.org/index.php?topic=5108.msg39094#msg39094
Most of the places I got wrong - were northern kenya - Isiolo to Lamus - in 2022 - need some more work there.
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Pundit Senate prediction versus Chirchir algorithm
(http://www.nipate.org/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=5108.0;attach=331;image)
Ruto had nothing to do with it and nowhere have I remotely suggested that Chirchir was working expressly for Ruto.
Omollo will say half the Jubilee governors were rigged in by Chirchir and you :D so it's pointless. Omollo offers no logic for Ruto to rig in Alfred Mutua.
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All the credible pollster predicted a Mutua win. I had no reason to dissent. In kenya pollster would get it right if they were to factor tribe/sub-tribe/clan in some form of stratified sampling. MOAS won't exist if they did that. They would be more accurate & predictable.
For example can one say you were right that Mutua would win? Since we know he stole the seat, should you be awarded marks for that?
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That is another point I found extremely suspect. On one hand you were dismissing the polls out of hand - especially when favorable to NASA. But when it came to Mutua you simply said AMEN! That is very suspicious.
All the credible pollster predicted a Mutua win. I had no reason to dissent. In kenya pollster would get it right if they were to factor tribe/sub-tribe/clan in some form of stratified sampling. MOAS won't exist if they did that. They would be more accurate & predictable.
For example can one say you were right that Mutua would win? Since we know he stole the seat, should you be awarded marks for that?
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Tactician and others who want to questions the proffesori of kenya politics start from here.