Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Omollo on May 19, 2017, 03:42:22 PM
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Kidero gets another 5 years without sweating.
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Kidero gets another 5 years without sweating.
Ngonjea MOAS.
Sonko lost the moment Kenneth spread word that he is a Ruto project in Nairobi to end Uthamaki. Now Kenneth will get the Kikuyu votes and Sonko whatever else. At least the Murang'a and Nyeri votes are his.
Kidero keeps a solid Luo and Luhya vote plus Kisii, Coast and Kamba.
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Does Miguna think PK still confuses beauty for good management? Either way, you would think that by now people know that for profit corporate skills do not slot well into running of a public organization.
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IEBC deadline? He will get Jimnah Mbaru's vote. Kambas remain the big factor which PK does not influence.
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IEBC deadline? He will get Jimnah Mbaru's vote. Kambas remain the big factor which PK does not influence.
That is what I am saying.... the moment he gets Mbaru's vote Kidero sings all the way back.
Though it may be pointed out that even if Mbaru had "given" all the votes he got to Waititu, Kidero would still beat him by about 20K votes. This time there is no Kisia to spoil votes. I think Kidero has organized and muted friendly fire by some corrupt means.
Note that the fringe candidates who collectively took away about 30K votes will appear again in one form or another.
(http://omollosview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Nairobi-Governor_elections_2013-1024x164.jpg)
Now if you look at Sonko's score theoretically he would carry the day if he had Margie with her. Margie did not get any Kikuyu votes because she was in the "wrong party".
At the time Sonko had subdued his support and closeness with Jubilee, thus attracting a few votes from the Luhya. His links with Shebesh who many considered a "Luhya" also swayed votes. Again like I said Margie was not considered ODM damu especially after her outbursts and threats (Ongoro style - these women think they can get anything with threats!). She was unqualified - lacking that essential degree - but still wanted to run and people thought she was in bed with Jubilee to hand over the seat.
All these factors that favored Sonko are absent:
1. He is now well identified with Jubilee and Uhuru
2. He is known as being rabidly anti-Raila with his hiring a man to beat up Raila in Kwale and then laughing about it
3. He is not as moneyed as before having been edged out of the Nairobi drugs trade
4. His dalliance with Shebesh became a source of shame and has greatly lowered his dignity and Shebesh's standing
(http://omollosview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Nairobi-Senator_elections_2013b.jpg)
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GEMA want the seat to steal more land. Ruto wants to have a nobody in Nairobi so he can realize his 2022 dream (nightmare if you ask me).
So different interests being merged produced Sonko + Igathe. Now this photo tell it all:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DAMqP4FUwAA79Eo.jpg)
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Pk cut a lonely figure without any known face..he will maybe beat miguna miguna otherwise sonko win is more than assured.kidero has done nothing worth being re elected. Moss say Sonko win its by 60%
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PK is a failed Obama project. Fake twitter followers, fake trolls.
I can't see any polls on Nairobi Mayor race so if just by relying on twitter activity & followers Kidero is gonna win.
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PK is a failed Obama project. Fake twitter followers, fake trolls.
I can't see any polls on Nairobi Mayor race so if just by relying on twitter activity & followers Kidero is gonna win.
Veritas
Pundit is a Ruto loyalist who will not run out of a burning house as long as WSR says it is not a fire but a setting sun. He keeps saying Sonko will win and then adding his usual percentages but curiously fails to add an explanation of how that 60% will come about.
PK will not take votes from Kidero that is guaranteed. He will take them away from Sonko. So how does he still have 60% with that loss?
He depended on Kiambu votes to descend down to vote for him. They will be going back to Kiambu to vote for bigger money from Kabogo and Waititu.
What is happening in Nairobi is that GEMA regrouped and made Uhuru listen. They told him his concern is and must remain to get re-elected. What happens in 2022 should not be his concern and that his Kikuyu people are under siege from Ruto even before he becomes president. They asked to know who will protect them now and in future.
Thus PK, Kabogo and others like Kinuthia Mbugua came back in the game. In fact ALL those who blamed Ruto for their loss are back as "Independents". One has to be willfully blind not to see it.
PK is now the Uthamaki candidate while Sonko is Ruto's project. Both will run well oiled political atrocious campaigns against each other.
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Pk cut a lonely figure without any known face..he will maybe beat miguna miguna otherwise sonko win is more than assured.kidero has done nothing worth being re elected. Moss say Sonko win its by 60%
Sonko ceased to be a threat to Kidero the moment he took on Polycarp Igathe as a running mate and let the story go that Sonko will kiss babies and wear bling bling while Kirubi's protege loots.
We're used to these declarations of percentages coming from you. They ceased to mean anything a while back.
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I don't throw numbers around carelessly like you do.A lot of thinking goes into those numbers. Sonko is insanely popular in lower class Nairobi who are reliable voters.His base is wide then add tribal tapestry..33% Kikuyu's..17% kambas..16% luhya..15% Luos..3-5% gusii,merus,Somalis,kalenjin and Asians.GEMA candidate Sonko starts with 40% plus Kambas 17% plus Jubilee leaning another 6%..that is already 63%..add many gusii,luo,luhyas and others who just love sonko..you're taking nearly 65% but remove party loyalist in ukambani and middle class who cannot bring themselves to vote Sonko..make that 60%...about the same voters he got in 2013 for senator. Sonko ni moto ya kuotea mbali.Kidero is home bound.You can argue like you always do but come 9th of August you be saying it was rigged or sijui I was in nsis safe house.60%.
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Omollo does not seem to get that the Kamba vote shifts from Kidero to Sonko.
Kidero needs God, Kalonzo and kamuti to retain Kambas... PK and Miguna cannot help him.
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Despite all the evidence from 2013 where Sonko scored 200k more from kambas and the likes.Sonko scored 58% facing a Kikuyu...now imagine facing Luo who only assured of 15%
luo base.I am thinking Sonko may even score 65%. Omollo does not seem to get that the Kamba vote shifts from Kidero to Sonko.
Kidero needs God, Kalonzo and kamuti to retain Kambas... PK and Miguna cannot help him.
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The Sonkoesque personality and malleability of Kamba is too much for Omollo to comprehend... so he equates Mutua to Tuju and says he cannot win... unless Isaac also wins in Bomet :D
Despite all the evidence from 2013 where Sonko scored 200k more from kambas and the likes.Sonko scored 58% facing a Kikuyu...now imagine facing Luo who only assured of 15%
luo base.I am thinking Sonko may even score 65%.
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Omollo does not seem to get that the Kamba vote shifts from Kidero to Sonko.
Kidero needs God, Kalonzo and kamuti to retain Kambas... PK and Miguna cannot help him.
I have thoroughly explained why Kambas will not vote for Sonko this time. If you could contradict it, then we can discuss. Kambas are in NASA not just in Nairobi but in Coast (along with their brothers the Duruma).
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I will repeat slowly this time:
- The Sonko of 2010 is not the Sonko of today. He has lost a lot as he got defined
- Sonko was swimming in cash and dishing it out freely to charity. That has slowed down and halted in many cases. He had to hand over many of his charitable work to Kidero's government
- Sonko initially had the support of Kikuyus because they perceived him as anti-Raila
- He however played close to the chest, pandering to Luos and avoiding personal attacks on Raila until the Kwale Bakora incident, which he followed with unprintable abuse of Raila. His honey moon with Luos ended
- He had support from Luhyas in Nairobi through Shebesh. That went on until his plastered photos of him and Shebesh in bed causing consternation. His dalliance with Luhyas ended when he invaded a Luhya man's bedroom. He was sentenced to pay some cows and receive kibokos. He served his sentence yet
- He can forget a large Kamba vote because Kidero has struck a deal with Kambas where they keep the Deputy Governor and take it all in 2022 (Ruto and Uhuru style). It seems to be working going by the endorsements streaming in. Kalonzo has blessed the pact and even Muthama will be campaigning for them in Nairobi. Sonko is a kamba in a wrong party
- As for Kikuyus: a) Kenneth is now the Uthamaki candidate. He will most likely be voted for to the last Kikuyu b) Sonko imported riff-raff from Kiambu to vote for him in the primaries. These will be needed in Kiambu where Jubilee has plans for ballot stuffing. They can't risk having them in Nairobi where the opposition would quickly put that to and end c) Kabogo and Waititu have combed Nairobi of every Sonko-Type supporter for their final battle. Sonko lacks the resources to match the two plus if he tries Kabogo will squeeze him further in the Pharmacy business
- The 200K majority has to be seen in the light of his opponent. Again, I wasted time explaining why Margaret Wanjiru lost to Sonko. He had a weak candidate because she caused hell (like she tried in Jubilee and ended up in prison) and ODM was forced to dump serious candidates and allow her to run for the senate. The arithmetic demanded a Luhya candidate Governor having gone to Luos and Deputy to Kambas. That is how Shebesh benefitted. Anyway, it is a waste of time to explain
What surprises me is that you say Sonko will get 60%. Then Peter Kenneth comes on Board and you say Sonko will now get 65%. Then Kabogo announces an independent run and you say sixty something percent... These events that have a bearing on Nairobi cannot be ignored. Jubilee did not ignore them. That is why pressure was applied so that the primaries were held in Nairobi and Kiambu / Murang'a on different days. However to you, there is no significance.
That is why, Pundit, I say you throw around numbers you pick from the air. Sonko will lose with mid forties (42 - 47) No more
I don't throw numbers around carelessly like you do.A lot of thinking goes into those numbers. Sonko is insanely popular in lower class Nairobi who are reliable voters.His base is wide then add tribal tapestry..33% Kikuyu's..17% kambas..16% luhya..15% Luos..3-5% gusii,merus,Somalis,kalenjin and Asians.GEMA candidate Sonko starts with 40% plus Kambas 17% plus Jubilee leaning another 6%..that is already 63%..add many gusii,luo,luhyas and others who just love sonko..you're taking nearly 65% but remove party loyalist in ukambani and middle class who cannot bring themselves to vote Sonko..make that 60%...about the same voters he got in 2013 for senator. Sonko ni moto ya kuotea mbali.Kidero is home bound.You can argue like you always do but come 9th of August you be saying it was rigged or sijui I was in nsis safe house.60%.
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That is where I start doubting your punditry.
Sonko was NOT facing a Kikuyu. Margaret Wanjiru was a traitor to the Kikuyu cause. Her votes were mostly ODM voters. The Kikuyus voted for Sonko on recommendation of Uhuru.
Sonko is now properly identified as a Jubilee candidate, whereas in 2013 he was a lone ranger. It is not the same Sonko of 2013 who was an "outsider".
Despite all the evidence from 2013 where Sonko scored 200k more from kambas and the likes.Sonko scored 58% facing a Kikuyu...now imagine facing Luo who only assured of 15%
luo base.I am thinking Sonko may even score 65%. Omollo does not seem to get that the Kamba vote shifts from Kidero to Sonko.
Kidero needs God, Kalonzo and kamuti to retain Kambas... PK and Miguna cannot help him.
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Typical omollo spewing nonsense. First revisit what you said recently when the battle was BTW sonko n Kenneth in jubilee nomination. The same nonsense and Pk was beaten by nearly 65% by Sonko.You can ask Robina for help but you have no grace like she has to admit wrong youre claiming all sort of nonsense that kiambu youths rigged in Sonko.Like I said your track record in political punditry is pathetic. My record is out there..15yrs of calling it right 90% of the time.it merely two months to go..you won't be here for the postmortem.Sonko will win this.Let talk on 8.8...when predictably you'll spew a long yarn alleging all nonsense explaining why kidero was rigged out
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Not so fast.
- Were ID cards used in the nominations? NO
- Was indelible ink used in the said nominations? No
- Which list was used? Jubilee party Membership or IEBC (any year - 2013 or 2017)?No
So how credible were the polls to even begin considering your "scientific" predictions? For all I care you simply shared with us the wishes of Ruto and we missed to pick it at the time.
Jubilee polls in Nairobi were just rigged with Ruto's candidates winning.
Sure thing. I will be watching Nairobi with hawk eyes come election night and will be the first to crack a call to Kidero to congratulate the corrupt bastard
Typical omollo spewing nonsense.
First revisit what you said recently when the battle was BTW sonko n Kenneth in jubilee nomination. The same nonsense and Pk was beaten by nearly 65% by Sonko.
You can ask Robina for help but you have no grace like she has to admit wrong you're claiming all sort of nonsense that kiambu youths rigged in Sonko.
Like I said your track record in political punditry is pathetic. My record is out there..15yrs of calling it right 90% of the time.it merely two months to go..you won't be here for the postmortem. Sonko will win this. Let talk on 8.8...when predictably you'll spew a long yarn alleging all nonsense explaining why kidero was rigged out
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Prepare another list of nonsenses that will explain why kidero and Raila lost coz the maths doesn't add up.No need flog a dead horse.Sonko will win this big.On the 9th...we will hear the usual it was rigged.
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Prepare another list of nonsenses that will explain why kidero and Raila lost coz the maths doesn't add up.No need flog a dead horse.Sonko will win this big.On the 9th...we will hear the usual it was rigged.
This time you will say it was rigged.
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In a way this is an anti-William Ruto movement