www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/Jubilee-is-destroying-Kenya--time-for-Opposition-to-rule/440808-3516492-usxdl4/index.html
You mean this Dr. Ndii did not see the finished projects all over the place, especially the 10,000km of fully tarmacked roads?? No wonder he is blind.
Don't worry about debt, the economy will overgrow the debt..
Usual nonsense from Dr Ndoom but at least he has revealed his political leaning. Jubilee is the most trans-formative regime in kenya.
Jubilee in 4 short years has connected more than 3m household to electricity - that is nearly 10-15m people now connected to main grid - Jubilee is connecting more than 1M household annually (or about 5m people) with Gatundu South achieving Africa's first 100% electricity coverage..NARA was doing 300k per annum.
Jubilee is constructing more bitumen roads than ALL combined roads since 60s. The number of roads under construction & in site preparation is mind-boggling. The road annuity 30,00km ambitious project once completed will totally transform the country road infrastructure. Most counties are complementing this with murram and even tarmac road.
Jubilee is delivering SGR (kenya biggest ever infrastructure project!!!) 18 months before schedule -in 3 short years - we have modern CLASS ONE railway together with rolling stock & Nairobi dry port snaking it's way to Naivasha as we speak. Together with modernization of Mombasa port (now the 3rd -4th busiest in Africa - after Jubilee enforce efficiency measures) and LAPSET - we may eventually undo one of our disadvantage - some world most slowest & expensive transporation cost - into 24 hour efficient economy.
Jubilee is delivering 1m tablets or laptops to all schools - having connected 99% of all them to electricity. Jubilee delivered digitial tv, has digitized gov record, started huduma centers, gave out millions of land titles, settled all IDPS in one go and has done amazing job in social sector. They've just restored the integrity of our exams.
Jubilee has grown the economy at average of 6% - way better than any regime in Kenya. Kibaki averaged about 4%. All macro-economic indicators -inflation, interest rates - are looking great.Jubilee just managed to cap the interest rate and sky is not falling yet - only thing that will fall is bank's supernormal profit. Jubilee has managed the extra financial commitment to Consolidated Fund with amazing dexterity - counties receives about 300B every year plus host of other constitutional bodies - that put pressure on Rotich's treasury but they've done a great job. NARA borrowed 650M usd commercial loan to fund our election(dr ndoom obstuficate all that) - and Jubilee seem to have borrowed less - to fund even more pressing needs that can't be postponed like counties. The economy after been re-based can take more debts - we are set to collect 14b usd from taxes - and couple more from AIA - what is 10B debt from Chinese???????????????
I can go on and on but Jubilee have been steady hands that have stabilized the kenya boat and has restored kenya image abroad as a modern, mature and proud nation. When is the last time you heard some low level EU or US ambassador strutting around Nairobi ordering GoK around? Unlike Moi and Kibaki who were muttering inaudible nonsense most of the time - Jubilee can go toe to toe with best - Obama and name them - which explain why Nairobi is now top destination for all global leaders.
I am glad I voted for Jubilee and I look forward to voting & campaigning for Jubilee this year.
I pray this country is put in charge of leaders like UhuRuto and someone like Mutua of Machakos. The no-frills no-intrigues get the job done leadership this country deserves. Not copius amount of speeches and articles from Dr Ndoom or Raila or Kalonzo or MaDVD - with absolutely nothing to show for it.
UhuRuto record speak for itself. They've stewarded this country in all it's aspect there is absolutely no need for some of us to login here and defend it. The country has never been this stable, this economically active and name it.
I expect Jubilee to win with a huge mandate come the next election. You want jubilee + county gov ran by Mutua like person and this country can go places.
Close to 600 Jobs Slashed as Sameer Africa Shuts Down Nairobi Factory - Kenya markets and investment opportuntiesClose to 600 people are set to lose their jobs after Sameer Africa announced it will cease manufacture of tyres and allied products at its factory in Nairobi plant and shift the production offshore, possibly to India or China.
http://sokodirectory.com/2016/09/close-600-jobs-slashed-sameer-africa-shuts-nairobi-factory/ (http://sokodirectory.com/2016/09/close-600-jobs-slashed-sameer-africa-shuts-nairobi-factory/)
Standard Chartered to lay off 300 as bank moves shared services to India
https://citizentv.co.ke/business/standard-chartered-to-lay-off-300-as-bank-moves-shared-services-to-india-149070/ (https://citizentv.co.ke/business/standard-chartered-to-lay-off-300-as-bank-moves-shared-services-to-india-149070/)
Nation Media retires 'best editors', low Safaricom revenues blamed for losses
http://www.kenyafreepress.com/media/watchdog/1002/nation-media-retires--best-editors---low-safaricom-revenues-blamed-for-losses (http://www.kenyafreepress.com/media/watchdog/1002/nation-media-retires--best-editors---low-safaricom-revenues-blamed-for-losses)
Posta Kenya may lay off 2,000 workers
http://www.postaltechnologyinternational.com/news.php?NewsID=22428 (http://www.postaltechnologyinternational.com/news.php?NewsID=22428)
Equity Bank Lays Off 400 Employees - Kenya markets and investment opportuntiesEquity Bank Holdings has joined other lenders in the country cutting costs through laying off of the workforce having sent home a total of 400 employees.
http://sokodirectory.com/2016/11/equity-bank-sends-home-400-employees/ (http://sokodirectory.com/2016/11/equity-bank-sends-home-400-employees/)
KQ sacks 38 more workers, plans another round of cutsKenya Airways yesterday started the latest round of sacking that will affect 38 employees as it struggles to remain afloat.
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/mobile/article/2000229402/kq-sacks-38-more-workers-plans-another-round-of-cuts (https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/mobile/article/2000229402/kq-sacks-38-more-workers-plans-another-round-of-cuts)
Portland Cement plans to lay off 1,000 employees, sell assetsEast African Portland Cement Company plans to retrench 1,000 out of its 1,500 workforce and sell part of its land worth Sh8 billion to turn around the company, the management said yesterday. The firm dismissed auditor-general’s report that the firm is insolvent. EAPCC chairman William Lay said the country’s third largest cement maker by market share is “asset rich but cash poor”
http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2016/11/18/portland-cement-plans-to-lay-off-1000-employees-sell-assets_c1457818 (http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2016/11/18/portland-cement-plans-to-lay-off-1000-employees-sell-assets_c1457818)
The banks have to slash their payroll cause its now easier,efficient and cheaper to provide services via mobile money. That's the effect of technology. The economy is benefiting greatly by improved productivity in the banking sector. As the big media companies struggle small niche players have come up due to digital immigration that has made it easier to setup small radio stations and tv stations.
Sameer group wasn't able to produce cheap tyres that kenyan motorist could afford. Its company specific. The same thing applies to the portland cement, the other cement companies like savannah,bamburi are growing its only the portland that's not.
Precisely. Layoffs don't tell the overall labour market. You've to go at data wholesomely. For every one person fired from Equity bank; you can bet 3 or more jobs were created in agency banking - now the preffered banking channel. In 2013 I estimate we had less than 10,000 agents now we have 50,000 agents - that mean banks have fired maybe 2,000 folks stuck in branches in major towns and hired 40,000 more bank agent offering banking services !! of course this has little to do with Jubilee but we've to thank CBK and banks for working together.
The same with portland - data indicate we are producing and consuming more cement - so while portland is having management issues - others are expanding like crazy - savannah, simba and athi river - I even saw another in Kericho - Rai cement.
As far as manufacturing - many folks including US don't have a response yet to China amazing competitive manufacturing industry - I wish there was an easy answer for our industries - but China is definitely eat many folks lunch - overally more jobs have been created than lost.The banks have to slash their payroll cause its now easier,efficient and cheaper to provide services via mobile money. That's the effect of technology. The economy is benefiting greatly by improved productivity in the banking sector. As the big media companies struggle small niche players have come up due to digital immigration that has made it easier to setup small radio stations and tv stations.
Sameer group wasn't able to produce cheap tyres that kenyan motorist could afford. Its company specific. The same thing applies to the portland cement, the other cement companies like savannah,bamburi are growing its only the portland that's not.
How much do these agents earn? Could it be a minute fraction of what the workers took home?
That said what protections are there for these workers under Jubilee?
I take it you can back the claim of 50,000 agents. Why is it that many of these closed the day after they opened? I have seen some young men knock on my car window to try to sell me banking services. Are these hawkers part of your Jubilee achievements? What job security do they have?
If Sameer and others are running to India could you explain what it is Jubilee has done to bring it on? Bees migrate at the smell of rubber smoke.
Lastly, I don't attach much to your statistics and generalizations. They sound like Margaret Thatcher's infamous statistics where she oozed them and cared not about their accuracy and the Right Wing Rupert Murdoch Media seized on them repeated them until they were quoted as proof of the truth of the said statistics.
I asked you about the Roads: You return with propaganda that carefully fails to disclose the LIE about 6000 km of new roads being tarmacked.Precisely. Layoffs don't tell the overall labour market. You've to go at data wholesomely. For every one person fired from Equity bank; you can bet 3 or more jobs were created in agency banking - now the preffered banking channel. In 2013 I estimate we had less than 10,000 agents now we have 50,000 agents - that mean banks have fired maybe 2,000 folks stuck in branches in major towns and hired 40,000 more bank agent offering banking services !! of course this has little to do with Jubilee but we've to thank CBK and banks for working together.
The same with portland - data indicate we are producing and consuming more cement - so while portland is having management issues - others are expanding like crazy - savannah, simba and athi river - I even saw another in Kericho - Rai cement.
As far as manufacturing - many folks including US don't have a response yet to China amazing competitive manufacturing industry - I wish there was an easy answer for our industries - but China is definitely eat many folks lunch - overally more jobs have been created than lost.The banks have to slash their payroll cause its now easier,efficient and cheaper to provide services via mobile money. That's the effect of technology. The economy is benefiting greatly by improved productivity in the banking sector. As the big media companies struggle small niche players have come up due to digital immigration that has made it easier to setup small radio stations and tv stations.
Sameer group wasn't able to produce cheap tyres that kenyan motorist could afford. Its company specific. The same thing applies to the portland cement, the other cement companies like savannah,bamburi are growing its only the portland that's not.
How much do these agents earn? Could it be a minute fraction of what the workers took home?
....agents in Tanzania make a median of $US 95 per month vs. only $US 70 in Kenya.http://www.helix-institute.com/blog/status-agents-kenya-proliferation-dominance-evolution-impact
Cleaners, Gardeners, General Workers, House servants, Children's ayah, Sweepers, Day watchmen, Messengers: Sh 10,954.70 [approx. $105]http://www.africapay.org/kenya/home/salary/minimum-wages
How much do these agents earn? Could it be a minute fraction of what the workers took home?
Banking agent at work:
(http://helix-institute.com/sites/default/files/Blog/vera_0.jpg)
This data is from 2013-2014, but I don't expect that there will have been dramatic changes:Quote....agents in Tanzania make a median of $US 95 per month vs. only $US 70 in Kenya.http://www.helix-institute.com/blog/status-agents-kenya-proliferation-dominance-evolution-impact
Note that this 2015 minimum wage in Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu:QuoteCleaners, Gardeners, General Workers, House servants, Children's ayah, Sweepers, Day watchmen, Messengers: Sh 10,954.70 [approx. $105]http://www.africapay.org/kenya/home/salary/minimum-wages
Looks like "Local Banker" or "Banking Agent" is good for the CV but not for the pocket. Certainly not what to brag about in terms of job creation.
Would you rather we keep 2,000 bankers earning on average 30k (300usd) serving small population or 50,000 people earning 70USD per month but providing crucial services in walking distance to every kenyan. Commonsense. No thinking required. Nobody is forcing anyone to become agent. This is just innovation and market intelligence (aka liberal free market) economics.
Most agents are engaged in other business..that 70USD per month is shot on their arm...probably difference btw going bust and staying afloat.That explain why agency banking is growing at supersonic speed
Certainly not what to brag about in terms of job creation.
I said nothing about the employment (or unemployment) of the "real" bankers; don't get so worked up over nothing. I was merely answering a question that Omollo asked. I also made one comment:
2013: Mpesa
“In Kenya, 43 per cent of GDP (gross domestic product) in 2013 flowed through Safaricom’s M-Pesa system, which supported over 237 million peer-to-peer transactions, more than any other such system in the world,” the study says.
2016: May
4.1 billion M-Pesa transactions last year, which was almost double the 2.8 billion in 2014 - with daily transaction value of 15b kshs. In 2015 M-pesa saw 28B USD worth of transactions and this year by 3rd Q it had already done 28B USD..meaning it could do...35BUSd...or about half the GDP will be pipped through M-pesa. You wonder how it will look like in 2020???
Kenya is re-making banking as we know - from brink & mortar - into seamless network of agents banked by systems.
I'll be damned! Is Jubilee claiming credit for Mpesa??? God and Messenger!!
Jubilee claiming another NARA (Raila-Kibaki) innovation and doing so shamelessly2013: Mpesa
“In Kenya, 43 per cent of GDP (gross domestic product) in 2013 flowed through Safaricom’s M-Pesa system, which supported over 237 million peer-to-peer transactions, more than any other such system in the world,” the study says.
2016: May
4.1 billion M-Pesa transactions last year, which was almost double the 2.8 billion in 2014 - with daily transaction value of 15b kshs. In 2015 M-pesa saw 28B USD worth of transactions and this year by 3rd Q it had already done 28B USD..meaning it could do...35BUSd...or about half the GDP will be pipped through M-pesa. You wonder how it will look like in 2020???
Kenya is re-making banking as we know - from brink & mortar - into seamless network of agents banked by systems.
No. Jubilee has not claimed M-pesa. The conversation took a different tangent. Jubilee has done so much -about 90% of their manifesto - they are walking to another term - with an even bigger mandate.
I will interrogate that claim of 90% :
1. Does it include laptops for pupils? The "manifesto" (though I believe it was a roadside declaration) stated "Laptops".
if you see an udala fruit beside a mound of shit, pluck a leaf and cover the shit and take your fruit!
If you try to be as objective and as sensible you'll realize they've fulfilled 90% of their pledges and all opinion rating are showing Uhuru win in first round. Jubilee mandate will be huge.I will interrogate that claim of 90% :
1. Does it include laptops for pupils? The "manifesto" (though I believe it was a roadside declaration) stated "Laptops".
Pundit
I love Literature especially African Literature. Still my favourite African Author after Soyinka is Achebe. He wrote:Quoteif you see an udala fruit beside a mound of shit, pluck a leaf and cover the shit and take your fruit!
You are using a very large leaf.
May be Jubilee sincerely believes it has achieved that much; May be people can overlook or even ignore the huge debts and the corruption involved. But Jubilee still has so heavy baggage no vehicle has the capacity to take them in.
1. Tribalism: There is no way Uhuru can escape thîs label. It has stuck harder than it stuck on Kibaki
2. Land : Uhuru is seen as intent on keeping grabbed land while forcing other communities to take his own people
3. Corruption: People in all the places I go to in Kenya simply refer to Jubilee as "The Government of Thieves". From local contracts being grabbed by Uhuru's tribesmen to supplies etc. It is a hard label.
As for the Kalenjin Most Kenyans I meet say you are being useful fools until after the elections.If you try to be as objective and as sensible you'll realize they've fulfilled 90% of their pledges and all opinion rating are showing Uhuru win in first round. Jubilee mandate will be huge.I will interrogate that claim of 90% :
1. Does it include laptops for pupils? The "manifesto" (though I believe it was a roadside declaration) stated "Laptops".
2013: Mpesa
“In Kenya, 43 per cent of GDP (gross domestic product) in 2013 flowed through Safaricom’s M-Pesa system, which supported over 237 million peer-to-peer transactions, more than any other such system in the world,” the study says.
2016: May
4.1 billion M-Pesa transactions last year, which was almost double the 2.8 billion in 2014 - with daily transaction value of 15b kshs. In 2015 M-pesa saw 28B USD worth of transactions and this year by 3rd Q it had already done 28B USD..meaning it could do...35BUSd...or about half the GDP will be pipped through M-pesa. You wonder how it will look like in 2020???
43% of Kenya's GDP is sent through M-PESAhttp://www.cgap.org/blog/10-myths-about-m-pesa-2014-update
Many publications from the Economist to the Financial Times have quoted the large percent of Kenya’s GDP that flows through M-PESA. However, this statistic is misleading. First, the value of mobile money transactions quoted includes all aggregate flows both into and out of the mobile money system – so at the very least this statistic is double counting. More importantly, GDP is a measure of the value of goods and services an economy produces and does not represent the amount of money that had to flow through it to pay for these goods and services. In actuality, M-PESA flows are roughly equal to the transaction flows of one of Kenya’s larger commercial banks. According to the Central Bank, mobile money contributes to 6.59% of the total national payments throughput value (including both gross and retail) but a staggering 66.56% of the total NPS throughput volume.
Actually, cash is still king in Kenya. Although 62% of Kenyans are active mobile money users, among the 300 low-income households that took part in the recently released Kenya Financial Diaries, just 1% of expenditures (mostly airtime top-ups) and 3% of all transactions were made electronically.
2013: Mpesa
“In Kenya, 43 per cent of GDP (gross domestic product) in 2013 flowed through Safaricom’s M-Pesa system, which supported over 237 million peer-to-peer transactions, more than any other such system in the world,” the study says.
2016: May
4.1 billion M-Pesa transactions last year, which was almost double the 2.8 billion in 2014 - with daily transaction value of 15b kshs. In 2015 M-pesa saw 28B USD worth of transactions and this year by 3rd Q it had already done 28B USD..meaning it could do...35BUSd...or about half the GDP will be pipped through M-pesa. You wonder how it will look like in 2020???
Pay careful attention to the following, because you are about to learn something useful: "In Kenya, 43 per cent of GDP (gross domestic product) in 2013 flowed through Safaricom’s M-Pesa system" does not necessarily tell one a great deal, for several reasons, one basic one being that the same money may be counted several times. X sends 100 shilings to Y through MPESA; Y uses it to pay U, V, and W through MPESA; the latter then use it to ... through MPESA; etc. The same money gets counted over and over again; in the meantime, all those transfers might have little or even no effect on GDP. And so on, and so forth.
There are numerous discussions out there on the volume of money that go through MPESA. The following are a couple of examples (that might reduce some of your excitement):Quote43% of Kenya's GDP is sent through M-PESAhttp://www.cgap.org/blog/10-myths-about-m-pesa-2014-update
Many publications from the Economist to the Financial Times have quoted the large percent of Kenya’s GDP that flows through M-PESA. However, this statistic is misleading. First, the value of mobile money transactions quoted includes all aggregate flows both into and out of the mobile money system – so at the very least this statistic is double counting. More importantly, GDP is a measure of the value of goods and services an economy produces and does not represent the amount of money that had to flow through it to pay for these goods and services. In actuality, M-PESA flows are roughly equal to the transaction flows of one of Kenya’s larger commercial banks. According to the Central Bank, mobile money contributes to 6.59% of the total national payments throughput value (including both gross and retail) but a staggering 66.56% of the total NPS throughput volume.
andQuoteActually, cash is still king in Kenya. Although 62% of Kenyans are active mobile money users, among the 300 low-income households that took part in the recently released Kenya Financial Diaries, just 1% of expenditures (mostly airtime top-ups) and 3% of all transactions were made electronically.
I knew that and have known it for a long time .
M-pesa it growing at impressive level - both in value & volume of transaction. Remember this technology is yet to celebrate it's 10th anniversary.
Certainly in transaction volume ....it one of world busiest payment platform...even the likes of visa/mastercard/paypall...may not be that busy...handling more than 1000 transaction every second...and by now it should he handling more than 6B transactions annually.
I knew that and have known it for a long time .
OK. That wasn't obvious from the excitement shown in your last "post".QuoteM-pesa it growing at impressive level - both in value & volume of transaction. Remember this technology is yet to celebrate it's 10th anniversary.
True. Vodafone has done very well with this innovation, and in places like Kenya, it just has to sit back and watch the money flow.
Sounds like opposition is running on empty. Corruption is the only one I concede.Note that it is not a small issue when people start call a government "Serikali ya Wezi". They see the opulence displayed by the thieves and wonder what it is they should do about it.
Jubilee have developed the country equally and so tribalism ni yako tu.How many times have coffee farmers had their personal loans in banks paid up? It is a yearly thing. Like I said before I would like to become a coffee farmer in Central: I borrow money and Muthamaki pays it in time for me to take another the following year.
As for Land - Jubilee has done so much here -giving out 3.2 million of titles - and settling all IDPS - by giving them each 400k to buy wherever they like - and settled Waitiki land problem like the boss he is.Do you mean the fake title deeds? The ones nullified by the High Court? How on earth can a politician be given the power to prepare and issue title deeds? In corrupt Kenya?
Where Jubilee initially struggled was security and corruption. Security after Ole Lenku and Kimaiyo disaster has improved and it only corruption that Jubilee failed.You live abroad. Insecurity is still a major problem in Kenya. Just ask Safaricom about their Mobile Phone masts. Business would grow at astronomical speed and the country could hit 10% growth per annum if security improved. Instead mama mbogas have to start winding down their businesses by four or earlier to make it home and avoid being robbed and raped on the way home. Once home, they have to barricade windows and doors to ward off gangs and rapists.
Kenyans are very smart people. Raila in 2013 was running on empty with nothing to show for NARA and was resoundingly rejected.We can discuss our manifestos another day. If Raila could not show anything for NARA what did Uhuru show? He was the Deputy Prime Minister who had run down KANU and watched as Kibaki poached turncoats like Koech to appoint as ministers, was he not?
Jubilee ratings is 55% plus. They will win election with HUGE MANDATE. Kenyans knows when a gov has performed.So do you now believe the polls that Kibaki planted out there in the run up to 2007? You changed but the Modus Operandi of the thieves did not Pundit. They continue to cook figures and polls and throw up statistics like always. This time it won't work.
Nobody is taking kenya to confused, rudderless, leaderless and clueless opposition to quote Ruto.
That is his propaganda from the talking points given to him attached to the limited cash they now hand to him to campaign. Poor man they are undermining him harder than they are hitting at Raila.
We have a term in Dhuluo which refers to banana cooking. If the fire blows out because you ran out of firewood before they are cooked that is the end. Kwisha no matter what you do, eventually you can salvage them as cow feed. Ruto is finished, he just does not know it and that is why we no longer attack him except to shake him a bit.QuoteJubilee would have done 63% (super majority) if it was not for lackluster corruption fight. That is my biggest disappointment. They've done the most in fighting graft - but we are in such huge hole - doing enough is not good enough.That is a bad dreamQuoteTo cap it all Uhuru settled problems like teacher/KNUT/dockers union/exams like a boss. What remained is this doctors thing that was devolved and where counties take the blame. This country you feel is on the right track...we just have to curb corruption..otherwise the future is looking really bright.KNUT leadership is pro Jubilee and some of us were only too pleased to see them humiliated and forced to accept any deal. Remember I offered a solution to one of their operatives (God only knows what happened to him, he went AWOL)
Exams: The jury is still sequestered.
Dockworkers: He can take credit and take it again when they strike as their jobs go to Naivasha. Fortunately we shall stop the Naivasha experiment.
M-pesa is as kenyan as it's get. Most of our banks ran some Swiss banking software ( T24) or Indian one - including in the US - bu that doesn't make it Swiss or Indian technology. M-pesa is the whole ecosystem - the software behind this can be written in one afternoon (m-pesa was actually written as grant -csr for some small time ngo- but vodafone monetized it when it flew off in kenya) - but will it work? No one has replicated what Kenya has done. I go to Uganda alot - they've m-pesa like tech - but nothing on the scale and sophistication you see in kenya - lipa na m-pesa/paybills/buygood - m-pesa loans - etc. they are stuck in p2p - kenya is moving ahead to make m-pesa a real payment system - something that didn't exist 10yrs ago.Mpesa impact on the poor http://news.mit.edu/2016/mobile-money-kenyans-out-poverty-1208
If value of transaction is an issue...CBK will step in and increase the cap...but I think it a non-issue.I knew that and have known it for a long time .
OK. That wasn't obvious from the excitement shown in your last "post".QuoteM-pesa it growing at impressive level - both in value & volume of transaction. Remember this technology is yet to celebrate it's 10th anniversary.
True. Vodafone has done very well with this innovation, and in places like Kenya, it just has to sit back and watch the money flow.
Omollo, Sorry but I don't do long posts. And I am sure I won't convince you about Jubilee success. In my view Jubilee have been the most effective gov the last four years. Kenya has done so much this last few years. I am happy I voted for Jubilee and look forward to voting them in again. GoK which has been dysfunctional from Kibaki-Raila 10yrs is now one mean machine. Jubilee can do way more - the fight against graft is where all attention is needed - I see CS wario will be charged for Rio mess (kudos!) - we need to keep the fight on - so far that makes about 6-7 CS (ministers) fired over graft!
Jubilee has fulfilled their manifesto. They need to come up with new manifesto. I expect completely free secondary education. I expect universal electricity coverage. I expect 50,000 kms of low seal bitumen roads all over kenya. I expect universal health insurance. That should be Uhuru legacy in 2022 and we can begin on Ruto regime - which I believe will be truly transformative.
Once registration is done...we will do MOAS...but Jubilee are sitting pretty.
Jubilee exits for itself not Kenyans, when it gives state jobs its not as opportunities of service but rewards for party & ethnic loyalties
— Koigi Wa Wamwere (@kwamwere) January 17, 2017
Four years ago, the Jubilee administration mesmerised Kenyans with fantastic images of mega-infrastructure, bullet trains and space age airports, iconic stadiums, bewildering interchanges and blooming deserts.
All these were a pretext for an unprecedented borrowing spree, and plunder, plunder that beggars belief.http://www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/Jubilee-is-destroying-Kenya--time-for-Opposition-to-rule/440808-3516492-usxdl4/index.html
- They borrowed US$4 billion (Sh415 billion) to build a 500km single track railway with a maximum diesel-powered train speed of 120kph and 80kph for passenger and cargo trains, respectively.
- For the same amount of money, Morocco has just completed Africa’s first high-speed rail, a 350 dual track railway (700km of rail) with a maximum speed of 320kph.
- Upgrading the existing railway line would have achieved the same performance as the new Standard Gauge Railway (SGR)for a quarter of the cost.
- The balance would have financed the new Lamu Port, a railway, a highway, and have enough left for one or two small projects.
- Jubilee’s justification for the SGR was to decongest the Mombasa-Malaba highway.
- Yet recently, the same administration has decided that it will transport crude oil from Turkana to Mombasa by road.
- With two railways running parallel to each other, Jubilee is going to put more trucks on the road.
- Why? Because trucking will put money in private pockets, pockets of powerful people.
- These are the same vested interests that undermined Kenya Railways. The SGR has been set up to fail before it has been commissioned.
A BIG LIE
- They borrowed US$ 2.8 billion (Sh290 billion) by floating sovereign bonds (Eurobond).
- There is no evidence where US$ 2.2 billion (Sh228 billion) went — we only know that US$605 million was used to pay off a loan.
- The Jubilee government has lied to Kenyans that this money was put in the budget and disbursed to ministries for various development projects in the FY 2014/15.
- This is impossible. Many Kenyans will know that one of the government’s big problem is “absorption” of development budget.
- Yet, the Jubilee administration would have us believe us that the development budget absorbed six Thika highway’s worth of additional money in one year only.
- We were told the Eurobond money would reduce the government domestic borrowing, and interest rates would come down.
- But Jubilee has also doubled our domestic debt.
- Interest rates cannot decline when the government is spending one third more than income year after year.
- In recent days, we have seen the President struggling to find Jubilee projects to launch.
- He’s launching anything he can find, even donor financed footbridges.
- Those who know Nairobi well will be familiar with the new buildings coming up in Upper Hill such as the recently completed UAP Tower and the Britam Tower under construction.
- The Eurobond money we are talking about is enough to build 40 of those, yet the President cannot find a single new Jubilee project to launch.
PATHWAY OF DEBT
- Many of you will recall that in October 2015, the government suffered a major cash crunch. This was addressed by taking out a commercial loan of US$750m (Sh77 billion). But this was not enough.
- A few months later in April last year, the Jubilee government borrowed an additional US$600m (Sh62 billion) to plug the deficit.
- These are huge loans. Before Jubilee, our single largest loan was Sh30 billion for the Thika highway.
- Jubilee has no qualms borrowing four times as much to plug a budget deficit.
- We now know that most of this money has been stolen or squandered, carted away in gunny bags (if Josephine Kabura is to be believed), cashed out in exchange for useless containers rusting away in Mombasa, frittered in obscene harambee largesse to buy acquiescence to the plunder and to sear the moral conscience of the nation.
- Many people think that these loans are a burden to our children and future generations.
- Not so. We are paying now. Jubilee has put the country on a debt treadmill.
- We have to keep borrowing or we will collapse.
- Before Jubilee, we were spending only Sh20 out of Sh100 of tax revenue to service debt.
- This figure is now approaching Sh40 out of Sh100 and rising rapidly.
DOWNWARD SPIRAL
- Before Jubilee, interest on foreign debt was costing us less than $5 out of every $100 dollars of foreign exchange earnings.
- Today, it is costing us $15 dollars, and rising fast.
- Spending 40 per cent of our revenue servicing debt means less money to provide services.
- It is also a threat to devolution. The constitution mandates national priorities before the counties revenue share is determined.
- Debt service is one of these national priorities.
- This means that the more debt service outlays, the lower the revenue there is to be shared.
- In addition to undermining provision of public services, this debt treadmill is a serious threat to our economic stability.
- Unlike the long-term soft loans we borrow from development institutions such as the World Bank, African Development Bank and others, these recent commercial loans are short-term “bullet payment” loans, and very expensive.
- Bonds have to be redeemed in full when they mature, which means refinancing by issuing new bonds.
- The US$750 million commercial loan borrowed to plug the deficit falls due in October.
- We don’t have this kind of money sitting somewhere, so the only way to pay it is to refinance either from another Eurobond issue, or to renegotiate with the banks to roll the loan over on very punitive terms.
- In early 2019, the first tranche of Eurobond will mature.
- If for any reason we are unable to re-finance any one of these repayments, it’s default and a downward spiral from there.
ECONOMIC COLLAPSE
- What I am saying is not unusual. We all know about Greece.
- Mozambique is going through the same as we speak, after defaulting on bonds payments for money it claimed was for a fishing fleet, but which was squandered on military hardware.
- Oil rich Angola is in the throes of an economic crisis after borrowing and squandering more than US$20 billion dollars from China (a quarter of all money China has lent to Africa).
- Now more than half their oil is going to China to pay the debts. They are struggling to pay salaries.
- We have a penchant for believing bad things only happen to other people.
- Just as we thought that we were an island of peace until 2007, we like to think that we are the undisputed economic giant of the region.
- Well, not too long ago, Kenya Airways was the undisputed giant of the African skies.
- Kenya Airways has been brought to its knees by reckless debt-financed expansion, but fundamentally by hubris — Jubilee type hubris.
- We have been here before. After losing the battle to maintain the one-party state, and looking at the prospect of losing power, the Moi regime engineered Goldenberg and other looting schemes that nearly bankrupted the country.
- But the Opposition fractured, and the Moi administration survived — with only a third of the presidential vote.
- Five years later, we could see clearly that if the Opposition did not unite, the Moi regime would run the country to the ground.
Nonsense from Dr Ndii that have failed to get any traction years later.Typical jubilee thinking: Truth by majority vote
Typical jubilee thinking: Truth by majority vote
You can lie to others but not me. Under NARA - when economy was being "well managed" - by Raila & Kibaki - economy was growing at - 2012/2013 - about 3.4%- Jubilee have steadily move that growth from 4% to 5%(2015) to 6.2% in 2016 & we shall soon do(7%).1% in 70B usd gdp is 0.7B - 6% is 3.6BUSd (more than SGR loan). Jubilee is adding 400B to the economy every year.
Where was Dr Doom when economy was growing at 3.4% in 2012 - and - now he comes predict doom - when the economy is growing at 6.2%! Nearly double what NARA did?
This is by far the best regime - when all is considered. Kibaki took over from really low base after Moi mess -he tried economically - but he screwed up politically & in all other areas - so landed us in kenya lowest point (2017) when we nearly went into civil war.
Jubilee will win by huge margin coz kenyans are not stupid.Typical jubilee thinking: Truth by majority vote
You can lie to others but not me. Under NARA - when economy was being "well managed" - by Raila & Kibaki - economy was growing at - 2012/2013 - about 3.4%- Jubilee have steadily move that growth from 4% to 5%(2015) to 6.2% in 2016 & we shall soon do(7%).
Nonsense from Dr Ndii that have failed to get any traction years later.The article was published on the 13th of January 2017. Hardly a month has passed, leave alone a year!
Amazingly he makes not a SINGLE sensible argument.
Jubilee deserves Kudos for floating the first ever Eurobond - kenya and many countries have tried to do this - and I am glad we might soon be floating another Eurobond.Ndii has stated that there is no evidence of the projects on which Eurobond was used.
This is our developed countries easily finance their projects - by tapping into huge debt market - rather than borrowing internally.Right. Domestic borrowing: Ndii says contrary to Jubilee claims it has actually spiked. Is he lying and can you prove he is?
We borrowed less in that yr and all Eurobond monies have been accounted for.How have they been accounted for? By the declaration from Rotich or the Corruption convicted Lagarde of IMF? Which projects were Eurobond finaced Pundit. It shopuld be easy to list them and even put a placard on them: This Project was financed by Eurobond...
The issue of SGR has been clarified severally. We couldn't upgrade MGR because of that rail-line has been concession-ed till 2025 by both Kenya and Uganda.We are getting Class A rail with ability to move 20-30m tonnes and have really long tunnels to ensure tsavo & nairobi national park are unaffected. Ethiopia will get class 2 railway coz they need to move mere 10m metric tonnes.Concessions do not preclude upgrades. No sir. Sweden was the first to go the way of concessions. All companies involved were Swedish. I am well versed with the concept for reasons I can't say here.
We can go on and on...by dr ndoom..should realize that our economy cannot grow at 6% if there was massive looting & mismanagement going on.
We can take more debt - coz we have the ability to repay - our economy is way bigger than in NARA (after re-basing in 13/14) - our tax collection is growing at double digit - set to collect 14B USD this year.
You can lie to others but not me. Under NARA - when economy was being "well managed" - by Raila & Kibaki - economy was growing at - 2012/2013 - about 3.4%- Jubilee have steadily move that growth from 4% to 5%(2015) to 6.2% in 2016 & we shall soon do(7%).
I'm curious to know where this figure comes from. The latest projections I have seen are for 5.9% for 2016.
(http://www.knbs.or.ke/images/stories/zachary.jpg)
Mr. Zachary Mwangi - Director General
More predictable nonsense.Rebased growth rate cannot be attributed to a year or two.Official growth this yr was 6.2%.Projection from various players for 2017 and figures so far from first two quarters point to another stellar growth...6% plus.
Official figures are from knbs.Jubilee has nearly doubled NARA growth.Those are FACTS
2910 is rebased growth....base year was moved there...you're so ignorant of these stuff and it such pain arguing with ignorant folk.NARA growth averaged 3...jubilee are doing twice as good.
otherwise growth rate for 2010 was most likely 3 percent...
Omollo has put chart up there....with all quarterly growth rate since 2014.Jubilee are averaging 6..if you round off. To be precise we don't yet have 2016 data..Q1 grew by 6.2.
And please 2009 n 2010 growth is something like 2.8 and 2.9.Not 5.8.NARA best was I think 3.4.....before rebasing in 2014.
Big picture thinking.Learn n practise that.Your too detailed oriented you often miss the point.The uncontested point remain that jubilee thro nailing stuff like sgr are doing twie as good as kibakidinga did.Omollo has put chart up there....with all quarterly growth rate since 2014.Jubilee are averaging 6..if you round off. To be precise we don't yet have 2016 data..Q1 grew by 6.2.
Did I just read that correctly? And you have been arguing and making assertions about wht?
Still, you are getting the hang of it. Getting closer to reality instead of simply asserting, forcefully and repeatedly, that the growth rate for 2016 was 6.2%. I take it that you now understand that the growth rate for one quarter does not determine the growth rate for the whole year?
You state that "Omollo has put chart up there....with all quarterly growth rate since 2014.Jubilee are averaging 6". I'll leave it to others to look at the Omollo figures and work out the averages.
And please 2009 n 2010 growth is something like 2.8 and 2.9.Not 5.8.NARA best was I think 3.4.....before rebasing in 2014.oparanya who was the minister of planning can give you all the details...before rebasing by jubilee.
Sigh. Here we go again. Where did you get the figure for 2.8 or 2.9 for 2010? Can you give a direct answer and save us the usual dancing-around?
Big picture thinking.Learn n practise that.
And please 2009 n 2010 growth is something like 2.8 and 2.9.Not 5.8.NARA best was I think 3.4.....before rebasing in 2014.oparanya who was the minister of planning can give you all the details...before rebasing by jubilee.
Sigh. Here we go again. Where did you get the figure for 2.8 or 2.9 for 2010? Can you give a direct answer and save us the usual dancing-around?
way too much details...you always miss the pointBig picture thinking.Learn n practise that.
No time for that. I'm too busy with real numbers and logic and stuff like that---the "predictable nonsense" and "childish nonsense" etc. But I'll keep your suggestion in mind for when I'm stoned or drunk. :D
of course.I relie on my memory more often than not.I don't google.I know for sure that knbs growth rate for 2009 and 2010 before rebasing was less than 3.where you get 5.8 ..which is way off...shows your arguing about stuff you barely understand.And please 2009 n 2010 growth is something like 2.8 and 2.9.Not 5.8.NARA best was I think 3.4.....before rebasing in 2014.oparanya who was the minister of planning can give you all the details...before rebasing by jubilee.
Sigh. Here we go again. Where did you get the figure for 2.8 or 2.9 for 2010? Can you give a direct answer and save us the usual dancing-around?
That's your answer? That you heard Oparanya say it at some unspecified time and place? And on that basis you are all worked up, arguing, and making assertions?
way too much details...you always miss the point
Official growth this yr was 6.2%(6.2. Not even rounded, by The Rounder, to 6)
To be precise we don't yet have 2016 data
2010 growth is something like 2.8 and 2.9.Not 5.8.
I know for sure that knbs growth rate for 2009 and 2010 before rebasing was less than 3.where you get 5.8 ..which is way off...shows your arguing about stuff you barely understand.
Okay after googling we have 1.7 then 2.9 then 5.6 then 4.2 then 3 ...average...3 percent for nara...jubilee are averaging 6...remember to round off..big picture...jubilee are better stewards of our economy.
Suggestion: (a) Do some more and better "googling". (b) Make a better effort in understanding and interpreting the figures.
Eurobond..was for budgetary support..not ringfenced...the money ended all over.
.including counties,salaries.
Official figures are from knbs.Jubilee has nearly doubled NARA growth.Those are FACTS
All Ndii, CORD and Omollo are asking for is an itemized list of the beneficiary projects ( as Rotich said) or general expenditure (as you now allege).
2010 is rebased growth....base year was moved to 2009..in 2014 by Jubilee....so those are revised figures...otherwise growth rate for 2010 was most likely 3 percent....you're so ignorant of these stuff and it such pain arguing with ignorant folks.The underestion that rebasing exposed cannot be attributed to one year except for accounting purposes.NARA growth averaged 3...jubilee are doing twice as good.That is a fact.When I look at the figures by Uhuru's mandarins, I seem to wonder whether your base your statements facts as you claim. In fact I would like to suggest there was a huge decline the moment Jubilee took over.
2013-2014 & 2014-2015 Budget is itemized enough for Ndii and you. Rotich job was to finance (from collection of revenue, borrowing domestically and abroad) the budget and he did that. You cannot ask him for where the money went to - it went to each budget line. Rotich did borrow less money than year locally (from tbills/tbonds - which easy to verify - ) and used Eurobond. Eurobond or TBond are the same - the money comes from external entities - and you can confirm that - by checking tbonds & tbills.
We got great deal with eurobond - at about 5-6% interest rate - compared to nearly 10% in domestic borrowing (treasury bonds).
so you chose euro-bond versus treasury bonds. Rotich floats those things every day in his business of financing the budget.All Ndii, CORD and Omollo are asking for is an itemized list of the beneficiary projects ( as Rotich said) or general expenditure (as you now allege).
If the topic was about figures - I certainly would have made effort. It about Jubilee having better managed the economy. Again the elephant in the house..Jubilee on average is rounding up to 6%...while NaRA is rounding down to 3%. And so Dr Ndii nonsense that Jubilee is worst regime is PLAIN NONSENSE. On the contrary facts are showing this is BEST regime.I found this from your mandarins. Can I trust it?
Pundit
Keep going and with a little luck will appreciate that Eurobond was stolen.
I disagree that all revenue is lumped up together and dished out without any knowledge of what money came from where.
1. Are you saying that the Eurobond was factored in the budget?
I can't help but to shudder at what you have written below. Advise Rotich never to come to work under me in Finance. If he cannot segregate Funds based on source and Spending then he is unqualified for the job.
Allow me to ask one question at a time2013-2014 & 2014-2015 Budget is itemized enough for Ndii and you. Rotich job was to finance (from collection of revenue, borrowing domestically and abroad) the budget and he did that. You cannot ask him for where the money went to - it went to each budget line. Rotich did borrow less money than year locally (from tbills/tbonds - which easy to verify - ) and used Eurobond. Eurobond or TBond are the same - the money comes from external entities - and you can confirm that - by checking tbonds & tbills.
We got great deal with eurobond - at about 5-6% interest rate - compared to nearly 10% in domestic borrowing (treasury bonds).
so you chose euro-bond versus treasury bonds. Rotich floats those things every day in his business of financing the budget.All Ndii, CORD and Omollo are asking for is an itemized list of the beneficiary projects ( as Rotich said) or general expenditure (as you now allege).
Pundit
I found this too. It stretches from 1990. Would you like to help me interpret it?
From my ignorance this is what I can say:
1. There is a steady growth from 2003 all the way to 2007 (6.2%) - an election year (Raila was in the government until 2005 while Uhuru was OUT)
2. Then there is a sharp drop in 2008 (0.5% )following PEV
3. NARA government then takes over and the growth resumes from 2009 at over 3%
4. 2010 records growth of nearly 9%
(http://omollosview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/GDP-Growth-1990-to-2012.jpg)
We've been thro this with Moonki. 2010 growth was 5.6. In 2014 GDP was re-based - that mean base year was moved from 2003 to I think 2009 - and GDP was revised - we discovered we had been underestimating the economy for sometime.
Kibadinga growth - 2008 1.7% 2009 2.9% 2010 5.6% 2011 4.2% 2012 4.6%....3.8% (4%)
Jubilee starts in -2013 5.7% 2014 5.3% 2015 5.6% 2016 -so far it average of 6% based on two quarters 5.7%(6%)
Verdict: Jubilee have been the better stewards of the economy. That extra 2% is attributed to stuff like SGR - which is expected to pump 1.5-2% to our economy annual during construction phase.
Again noted in 2014 the economy was rebased...so be careful with revised figuresPundit
I found this too. It stretches from 1990. Would you like to help me interpret it?
From my ignorance this is what I can say:
1. There is a steady growth from 2003 all the way to 2007 (6.2%) - an election year (Raila was in the government until 2005 while Uhuru was OUT)
2. Then there is a sharp drop in 2008 (0.5% )following PEV
3. NARA government then takes over and the growth resumes from 2009 at over 3%
4. 2010 records growth of nearly 9%
(http://omollosview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/GDP-Growth-1990-to-2012.jpg)
We've been thro this with Moonki. 2010 growth was 5.6. In 2014 GDP was re-based - that mean base year was moved from 2003 to I think 2009 - and GDP was revised - we discovered we had been underestimating the economy for sometime.
Kibadinga growth -
2008 1.7%
2009 2.9%
2010 5.6%
2011 4.2%
2012 4.6%....3.8% (4%)
Jubilee starts in -
2013 5.7%
2014 5.3%
2015 5.6%
2016 -so far it average of 6% based on two quarters 5.7%(6%)
Verdict: Jubilee have been the better stewards of the economy. That extra 2% is attributed to stuff like SGR - which is expected to pump 1.5-2% to our economy annual during construction phase.
Again noted in 2014 the economy was rebased...so be careful with revised figures
Omollo - today Rotich is issuing 30B treasury bonds - for budgetary support. This is a daily scandal or it not as sexy as Eurobond.
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Treasury-issues-Sh30-billion-bond-for-budgetary-support/539552-3523314-gyub9jz/index.html
We've been thro this with Moonki. 2010 growth was 5.6. In 2014 GDP was re-based - that mean base year was moved from 2003 to I think 2009 - and GDP was revised - we discovered we had been underestimating the economy for sometime.
Kibadinga growth - 2008 1.7% 2009 2.9% 2010 5.6% 2011 4.2% 2012 4.6%....3.8% (4%)
Jubilee starts in -2013 5.7% 2014 5.3% 2015 5.6% 2016 -so far it average of 6% based on two quarters 5.7%(6%)
Moonki..you're talking nonsense...as always.Your cannot use rebased revised figures to compare.Nobody knows for sure when those figures went off.If we rebase today..to 2012..5yrs as is recommended..would you wait for new figures so we can compare.
Moonki..you're talking nonsense...as always.Your cannot use rebased revised figures to compare.Nobody knows for sure when those figures went off.If we rebase today..to 2012..5yrs as is recommended..would you wait for new figures so we can compare.
Mine is simple: Where are you getting your figures from? Can I also go there and get the same figures?
And please 2009 n 2010 growth is something like 2.8 and 2.9.Not 5.8.NARA best was I think 3.4.....before rebasing in 2014.
Sigh. Here we go again. Where did you get the figure for 2.8 or 2.9 for 2010? Can you give a direct answer and save us the usual dancing-around?
NARA borrowed 650M usd commercial loan to fund our election(dr ndoom obstuficate all that)
we are set to collect 14b usd from taxes - and couple more from AIA - what is 10B debt from Chinese???????????????
-+
Pundit
Since all figures show that Jubilee has under-performed NARA and since you based your decision to vote for Jubilee on the mistaken belief that Jubilee had done better than NARA, would you now commit to vote for Raila so he can continue with the good work?
-Statistics show that there has been economic growth every time Raila was in government and a down ward trend whenever he was not in. The same statistics show that Uhuru has always caused a brake to be applied on Growth every time he enters government. Is that not another reason to decamp from Jubilee to CORD?
I assume your only consideration in determining who to vote for has been the best performer economically. Now that we have it in black and white, should you not be announcing your defection?
You need not apologize to David Ndii: I am sure he will understand.
Please see (b) above. Instead of the usual petty insults, take some time to try and understand it; it might also help you to carefully read the KNBS explanations. And, briefly: the rebased figures are used for the very simple reason that they are in fact more accurate; see (a) above. They are the figures that KNBS now reports and which everyone, except RV Pundit, now uses in analyses. Take a look at, for example, what the World Bank has in its books and the basis on which it analyses the Kenyan economy (scroll down):
http://data.worldbank.org/country/kenya
(What figure does the World Bank give for, say, 2010? When people look at the figure for that year, should they go with the World Bank or with RV Pundit of Nipate.org?)
And here is a randomly selected source reporting on Kenya's economic growth:
http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Kenya/Economic_growth/
(You can find plenty of such all over the place ... people using the new figures, and with good-and-obvious reason.)
It is possible that KNBS, World Bank, IMF, etc. that are all using the new figures for long-range analysis and comparison are also "talking nonsense", but I'm going to go with them.
If we rebase today, to 2012, the whole point would be to have more accurate figures. Having obtained the more accurate figures, we would, as a matter of simple logic, base our comparisons on those more accurate figures. Why? Because the whole point of rebasing would be to get more accurate figures to use in analysis. (I hope that repetition helps.)
Talk about stuff you have some inkling about. My advice remain - you and odm lumanaries should take economics 101 and maybe public finance 101 - and we can talk things country's economy from the same level.
Even if we use re-based figures - NARA figures come to 4.8%
Kibadinga growth - 2008 02.% (rebased 1.5) 2009 (2.9% -rebased to 3.3%) 2010 (5.6% -rebased to 8.4%) 2011 4.2% (rebased 6.1%) 2012 4.6% (rebased to 4.7%)....3.8% (rebased 4.8%)
Jubilee starts in -2013 5.7% 2014 5.3% 2015 5.6% 2016 -so far it average of 6% based on two quarters - 5.8 - non-rebased - once re-based it will maybe 6.6% (7%) or more!
Technical note: figures away from 2009 - the current base year - are going to have to be re-based - again when we chose a new base year - so they are "tentative" - with most distortion around the new base year..Pundit
Since all figures show that Jubilee has under-performed NARA and since you based your decision to vote for Jubilee on the mistaken belief that Jubilee had done better than NARA, would you now commit to vote for Raila so he can continue with the good work?
-Statistics show that there has been economic growth every time Raila was in government and a down ward trend whenever he was not in. The same statistics show that Uhuru has always caused a brake to be applied on Growth every time he enters government. Is that not another reason to decamp from Jubilee to CORD?
I assume your only consideration in determining who to vote for has been the best performer economically. Now that we have it in black and white, should you not be announcing your defection?
You need not apologize to David Ndii: I am sure he will understand.
the comparison that make sense will be un-revised gdp figures. Otherwise you're comparing accurate figures (rebased) and with distorted figures... [they] were revised & are accurate.
Yeah the economy grew from 2.9% to whopping 8.2% in 2010. Who if not KNBS & WB announced GDP growth rate of 5.6% for 2010.
Try understand re-basing first. We can only compare apples to apples. We have re-based gdp figures from 2013. We have to wait until we do another re-basing before we can compare revised gdp of 2008-2012 with 2013-2017. As of now the comparison that make sense will be un-revised gdp figures. Otherwise you'r comparing accurate figures (rebased) and with distorted figures. KNBS did rebasing in 2006 (base yr moved to 2002) - so figures from 2006 were revised & are accurate and then again in 2013 (base yr 2009) -we have accurate revised gdp figures from 2006 to 2013. The next re-basing will have to correct figures from 2014 up! --Jubilee figures will most likely go up. So you cannot compare apples and oranges.
Conclusion: Jubilee has grown economy nearly twice the rate of NARA.
You cannot compare final with interim. Revised with non-revised figures.:D
Conclusion: Jubilee has grown economy nearly twice the rate of NARA.QuoteYou cannot compare final with interim. Revised with non-revised figures.:D
Pundit, would you guess why I am laughing?
We can compare interim with interim. we have interim figures for both regimes.Conclusion: Jubilee has grown economy nearly twice the rate of NARA.QuoteYou cannot compare final with interim. Revised with non-revised figures.:D
Pundit, would you guess why I am laughing?
Omolo surely you can search.
Try understand re-basing first. We can only compare apples to apples.
...
You cannot compare final with interim. Revised with non-revised figures.
Kibadinga growth - 2008 1.7% 2009 2.9% 2010 5.6% 2011 4.2% 2012 4.6%....3.8% (4%)
Jubilee starts in -2013 5.7% 2014 5.3% 2015 5.6% 2016 -so far it average of 6% based on two quarters 5.7%(6%)
(b) With the numbers you give above, you are comparing numbers on one base (the old one) with numbers on a different base (the new one). Which makes more sense? To do that, or to compare numbers on the same base (the new one)? I hope you didn't cut all the Logic 101 classes.
Moonki..you're talking nonsense...as always.Your cannot use rebased revised figures to compare
Please see (b) above. Instead of the usual petty insults, take some time to try and understand it; it might also help you to carefully read the KNBS explanations. And, briefly: the rebased figures are used for the very simple reason that they are in fact more accurate; see (a) above.
Note 1) Moonki was sometime recently deriding the re-based figures.
Moonki can help.
More predictable obtuseness.When we rebased our economy we realized it was 25% bigger than we thought and again nobody knows when those figures went off...but they to be factored from the new base year we chose..5yrs from 2014...if we had chosen to rebase it this year.
..and picked 2012 as base year..our 2012 revised growth rate wold be bigger...and some fool would attribute all that growth to 2012.If like Nigeria we waited for 30yrs before rebasing it to 2008..and revise growth that year to 100%...will you say economy of Nigeria grew 59% in 2010.Absolute obtuse nonsense.Revised growth rate always have * for that..caveat... Understand rebasing first.
NARA borrowed 650M usd commercial loan to fund our election(dr ndoom obstuficate all that)
We have to wait until we do another re-basing before we can compare revised gdp of 2008-2012 with 2013-2017. As of now the comparison that make sense will be un-revised gdp figures.
Kenya is one of the bright spots in Sub-Saharan Africa. With economic growth rates sustained at above 5 percent, Kenya has outperformed the regional average, for 8 consecutive years.https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/25380
we know we understimate the size of our economy...so the current interim gdp figures are understating growth. Instead of 6% now...we might discovered we actually grew by 10%!
NARA - (2008 - 0.23, 2009 - 3.31, 2010 - 8.4, 2011 - 6.11, 2012 - 4.55) Average =
Jubilee - (2013 - 5.69, 2014 - 5.33, 2015 - 5.63 , 2016 - Not Available) Average =
If the topic was about figures - I certainly would have made effort. It about Jubilee having better managed the economy. Again the elephant in the house..Jubilee on average is rounding up to 6%...while NaRA is rounding down to 3%. And so Dr Ndii nonsense that Jubilee is worst regime is PLAIN NONSENSE. On the contrary facts are showing this is BEST regime.
Okay Omollo - here is previous GDP growth rate and revised. I think there is no need to belabour the point that jubilee has been better stewards of the economy.
Omollo,
1) The source of data is KNBS - Revised National Accounts - Kenya National Bureau of Statistics - 2014 - fact book
2) Moonki is asking for 650M USD syndicated loan that he can easily google (quite the expert). That loan is part of what EuroBond repaid. It was borrowed in 2012 and was definitely partially used to finance our most expensive election - IEBC & Security - budget I think exceed 30-40B - which is more than half of 650M usd.
3) We have borrowed more to invest in our future...main component of that debt is SGR...now at more than 5B USD. SGR is projected to contribute 1.5-2% during and after construction - and it expected to repay the loan- once it operational.
If the topic was about figures - I certainly would have made effort. It about Jubilee having better managed the economy. Again the elephant in the house..Jubilee on average is rounding up to 6%...while NaRA is rounding down to 3%. And so Dr Ndii nonsense that Jubilee is worst regime is PLAIN NONSENSE. On the contrary facts are showing this is BEST regime.
2) Moonki is asking for 650M USD syndicated loan that he can easily google (quite the expert). That loan is part of what EuroBond repaid. It was borrowed in 2012 and was definitely partially used to finance our most expensive election - IEBC & Security - budget I think exceed 30-40B - which is more than half of 650M usd.
NARA borrowed 650M usd commercial loan to fund our election(dr ndoom obstuficate all that)
2) Moonki is asking for 650M USD syndicated loan that he can easily google (quite the expert). That loan is part of what EuroBond repaid. It was borrowed in 2012 and was definitely partially used to finance our most expensive election - IEBC & Security - budget I think exceed 30-40B - which is more than half of 650M usd.
First, I have no knowledge of the $650M loan you keep bringing up. But I know of a $600M loan that was paid back with part of Eurobond. Where did you get the 650 figure?
Second, this is the statement I was concerned about:QuoteNARA borrowed 650M usd commercial loan to fund our election(dr ndoom obstuficate all that)
That statement is quite different from the revised in which the elections were only partially funded by the loan.
Third, other than merely asserting it, as usual, you have not offered much in support of the "partial funding" from that particular source.
Fourth, you do not seem aware of the fact that "donors" financed a large part of the 2013 elections.
Finally, how exactly has Ndii obfuscated anything in regard to that loan or the funding of the elections?
Pundit
Now that you have provided the source (I am still verifying to ensure commonality between what you wrote and what appears in the pdf doc. As you know numbers is not my area. Have to be slow), we can move to the next question.
How did you reach the conclusion that Jubilee has performed "better" than NARA.
Take note of the following facts when responding:I would also like to know from you if you believe that Ndii based his dire conclusion about Jubilee on growth figures alone or if he considered other indicators
- There is no guarantee that rebasing or revision would inevitably lead to higher growth figures is there?
- In fact there is a possibility of the earlier growth figure(s) sinking upon revision
Quote from: RV PunditIf the topic was about figures - I certainly would have made effort. It about Jubilee having better managed the economy. Again the elephant in the house..Jubilee on average is rounding up to 6%...while NaRA is rounding down to 3%. And so Dr Ndii nonsense that Jubilee is worst regime is PLAIN NONSENSE. On the contrary facts are showing this is BEST regime.
Usual nitpicking. I have seen 600m and 650m figures..perhaps some include interest and fees. The point remain NARA's treasury borrowed expensive 600M or 650m commercial loan that Jubilee retired using Eurobond. Dr Ndii doesn't ackowledge that.
NARA borrowed 650M usd commercial loan to fund our election(dr ndoom obstuficate all that)
Lol global star.. where is the 10% to make these projects viable? wake me up when Kenya hits 10% we need to grow at 15% for the next to meet 2030 goals..So the infrastructure projects can only be viable at 10% growth rate?
Lol global star.. where is the 10% to make these projects viable? wake me up when Kenya hits 10% we need to grow at 15% for the next to meet 2030 goals..So the infrastructure projects can only be viable at 10% growth rate?
Lol global star.. where is the 10% to make these projects viable? wake me up when Kenya hits 10% we need to grow at 15% for the next to meet 2030 goals..
Lol global star.. where is the 10% to make these projects viable? wake me up when Kenya hits 10% we need to grow at 15% for the next to meet 2030 goals..So the infrastructure projects can only be viable at 10% growth rate?
This one of the pillars that 2030 envisioned of achieving its goals.. without 10% growth or 15% to achieve 2030 our economic problems won't be solved.
Which projects are not viable? After re-basing that 10% doesn't look so high. Already kenya is lower-middle-income country with 1,500 gpd per capita. 2030 is where we hope to get 5,000 gpd per capita - around where South Africa is - and I don't see why we shouldn't get there.Lol global star.. where is the 10% to make these projects viable? wake me up when Kenya hits 10% we need to grow at 15% for the next to meet 2030 goals..
0-14 years: 40.87% (male 9,592,017/female 9,532,032)
15-24 years: 18.83% (male 4,398,554/female 4,411,586)
25-54 years: 33.54% (male 7,938,111/female 7,755,128)
55-64 years: 3.84% (male 819,665/female 976,862)
65 years and over: 2.92% (male 590,961/female 775,842) (2016 est.)
At 6% for the last few yrs our economy is on of the global star performers. Nigeria or South Africa would be happy with 2% growth the last year's.We need to move from 6% to 10% ..and that is Jubilee challenge now.
You really like to throw words around so rebasing will take growth of 5% to 10% remember we had the benefit of Telecoms and IT in the last rebasing. In the next one these industries will be mature and our population would have started to age. Rember Genexr will be turning 50 in the next 5 years and will be retiring 15 years from now; Pension payments and other obligations will make Kenya the GREECE of EAC