Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on October 06, 2016, 01:22:35 PM
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http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?p=135701884#post135701884
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Awesome stuff.
Is it possible for Kenyans and ethiopian to bid and successfully construct similar projects in other african countries with world class experience obtained thus?
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Not possible. The benefits of competitive transport cost & time will be enough for now. Ethiopia are doing more rail lines and Kenya need to do a catch up here.
Awesome stuff.
Is it possible for Kenyans and ethiopian to bid and successfully construct similar projects in other african countries with world class experience obtained thus?
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Awesome stuff.
Is it possible for Kenyans and ethiopian to bid and successfully construct similar projects in other african countries with world class experience obtained thus?
They would have to actually acquire the skills. Are there any being transferred beyond driving forklifts and bulldozers?
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Awesome stuff.
Is it possible for Kenyans and ethiopian to bid and successfully construct similar projects in other african countries with world class experience obtained thus?
They would have to actually acquire the skills. Are there any being transferred beyond driving forklifts and bulldozers?
I think it would be easier to transfer skills for example if Kenya railways hired some english speaking, Chinese technical staff/engineers and paid them well to supervise local engineers and tradesmen. The government would therefore have to fully fund a section of the railway so as to avoid restrictions due to chinese loans.
Let's see how phase II of SGR kenya will be done.
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Some dreadfull western news:
http://m.france24.com/en/20161005-chinese-built-railway-opens-linking-ethiopia-djibouti
Ethiopia has a long way to go, however. The International Monetary Fund estimates that growth, at a massive 10.2 percent in 2015, will plunge to 4.2% this year amid the worst drought in 30 years.
Furthermore, Ethiopian Tegray government should control the demos underway by sharing pie with disgruntled major tribes. Otherwise, foreign agents might take advantage of the situation to destabilize the country.
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What is the cost of freight? We know the time is being slashed from 2 days it take a truck from Djibouti to Adis to few hours.
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There has been no sign of a feasibility study or figures from government officials on ethiopias sgr so far. This could be because they don't use english there.
By my guestimate its probably around 3/15 of Kenyas freight cost, if we assume 1unit of power is 3 us cents in ethiopia and 15 us cents in kenya. Labour, capital cost, and maintenance is also higher for kenya diesel SGR.
So if we also assume that kenya sgr will be 8 us cents per ton.km, then ethiopia will be circa 1 us cents per ton.km
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Did I read somewhere that the Ethiopian SGR is cheaper per mile than the sub par Kenyan one?
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Water under the bridge.
Did I read somewhere that the Ethiopian SGR is cheaper per mile than the sub par Kenyan one?
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Yeah it was brilliant decision to use electricity - they might cut down the cost of operation & save forex - our diesel run trains will be more expensive. I can't seem to find any figures on the expected cost of freight.
There has been no sign of a feasibility study or figures from government officials on ethiopias sgr so far. This could be because they don't use english there.
By my guestimate its probably around 3/15 of Kenyas freight cost, if we assume 1unit of power is 3 us cents in ethiopia and 15 us cents in kenya. Labour, capital cost, and maintenance is also higher for kenya diesel SGR.
So if we also assume that kenya sgr will be 8 us cents per ton.km, then ethiopia will be circa 1 us cents per ton.km
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Answer the question.
Water under the bridge.
Did I read somewhere that the Ethiopian SGR is cheaper per mile than the sub par Kenyan one?
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Let me answer it for you.
Why has Ethiopia managed to build an electrified Standard Gauge Railway for less money than Kenya, whose SGR is not even electric?
The $3.4 billion project was built by two Chinese companies and is the first to be electrified in Africa.
Compare that to phase 1 of Kenya’s Standard Gauge Railway. Its cost stands at Sh327 billion, almost the same as the Ethiopian line, but more than 100 km shorter.
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If GOK connects Kenya sgr with Ethiopia sgr or we connect kenya roads to ethiopia, there's a good possibility that it might become cheaper to import through Djibouti port than Mombasa.
This will let North Kenya (say Nakuru and above) be serviced by Djibouti port.
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There has been no sign of a feasibility study or figures from government officials on ethiopias sgr so far. This could be because they don't use english there.
By my guestimate its probably around 3/15 of Kenyas freight cost, if we assume 1unit of power is 3 us cents in ethiopia and 15 us cents in kenya. Labour, capital cost, and maintenance is also higher for kenya diesel SGR.
So if we also assume that kenya sgr will be 8 us cents per ton.km, then ethiopia will be circa 1 us cents per ton.km
I have seen such figures repeatedly thrown around here---almost always by a source whose "facts" should always be double-checked---for example:
Our "factory" fundamentals are screwed..power at best 14 cent usd per KWH(for large commercial) and labour at 120USD per month...totally impossible when our competitors are offering 3 cent per KWH and 20usd per month salary!
My question: to what extent does the figure reflect current reality?
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There has been no sign of a feasibility study or figures from government officials on ethiopias sgr so far. This could be because they don't use english there.
By my guestimate its probably around 3/15 of Kenyas freight cost, if we assume 1unit of power is 3 us cents in ethiopia and 15 us cents in kenya. Labour, capital cost, and maintenance is also higher for kenya diesel SGR.
So if we also assume that kenya sgr will be 8 us cents per ton.km, then ethiopia will be circa 1 us cents per ton.km
I have seen such figures repeatedly thrown around here---almost always by a source whose "facts" should always be double-checked---for example:
Our "factory" fundamentals are screwed..power at best 14 cent usd per KWH(for large commercial) and labour at 120USD per month...totally impossible when our competitors are offering 3 cent per KWH and 20usd per month salary!
My question: to what extent does the figure reflect current reality?
I think those were picked from the media e.g. : www.the-star.co.ke/news/2016/02/11/ethiopia-threatens-kenyas-investment-appeal-analyst_c1292890
Electricity costs at an average of Sh3.06 (three US cents) per kilowatt-hour is cheaper than Kenya's range of between Sh13.33 and Sh20.59 based on customer classification, consuming more than 50 units.
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For $3billion thats a lot of project. Its worth it.
Kenya's is $5billion and counting.
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Just read Ethiopia has borrowed 17B USD from chinese..so we can get more credit from them.
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Just read Ethiopia has borrowed 17B USD from chinese..so we can get more credit from them.
I feel that our problem isn't that we don't borrow enough. I think it is that most of what we borrow is stolen.
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Not china loan. They don't give you the cash. Their bank will wire the money directly to the chinese contractor. So whatever is stolen is very little..which is why those project are visible. The same with WB/ADB projects. Gov stealing happen only on things treasury has full control.
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I think those were picked from the media e.g. : www.the-star.co.ke/news/2016/02/11/ethiopia-threatens-kenyas-investment-appeal-analyst_c1292890
Electricity costs at an average of Sh3.06 (three US cents) per kilowatt-hour is cheaper than Kenya's range of between Sh13.33 and Sh20.59 based on customer classification, consuming more than 50 units.
I don't know how reliable The Star is on such matters. I'd probably consider Ethiopian sources, e.g. the Ethiopia Electric Agency.
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Just read Ethiopia has borrowed 17B USD from chinese..so we can get more credit from them.
It is possible that Kung Fu has a bottomless pit of money, and all people have to do is ask. But while we wait for Kenya to ask for some more, its partners on the "Northern Corridor SGR" have been telling some stories:
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Just read Ethiopia has borrowed 17B USD from chinese..so we can get more credit from them.
It is possible that Kung Fu has a bottomless pit of money, and all people have to do is ask. But while we wait for Kenya to ask for some more, its partners on the "Northern Corridor SGR" have been telling some stories:
Ugandans are waiting for the first rail to reach uganda of Kenya and Tanzania railways. Tanzanians have set to do their rail in 18 months....once tendering is complete, so it will compete with Kenya to connect with Uganda and Rwanda.
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Kenya's phase 2A is already financed. The remaining part (Phase 2B) is Naivasha to Kisumu to Malaba. I don't see why Exim bank cannot finance this. Kenya GDP continues to grow...so we should be able to borrow more and more..to finance more projects. By time we are done with phase 2A (whooping 54months..or 5yrs!)...we should be very different country from now.
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As we argue about 1,000 KMs SGR line, South Africa have 20 000km of rail network. We need to move faster and ensure we have proper rail network connecting every part of kenya. And we can do this by taking in more and more debts...a rail network once constructed can last 100-200yrs.
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As we argue about 1,000 KMs SGR line, South Africa have 20 000km of rail network. We need to move faster and ensure we have proper rail network connecting every part of kenya. And we can do this by taking in more and more debts...a rail network once constructed can last 100-200yrs.
I doubt if we will build that kind of railway network without industries in place. They won't be viable.
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Why won't it be viable? We already import/export 26m tonnes of cargo -1m plus containers...and if you check South Africa 3 ports - they are not that far - I think they are doing 3-4M containers. Railways, roads, and infrastructure are needed for moving goods & people...they don't have to be from factories...but even internal consumption or agricultural goods. How many containers of tea/coffee/sugar/maize/etc do we produce and that need to be moved.
We should invest in infrastructure at same level of Ethiopia..about double the capacity we are now at....for our own supply chain..not necessarily to ship raw material out or finished good abroad..but to move maize from Eldoret to Nairobi for example..quickly and cheaply.
I doubt if we will build that kind of railway network without industries in place. They won't be viable.
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Excluding the SGR, Kenya has something like 2,200 km of railways. But someone forgot the little matter of maintenance, so only half of that is operational. A good start would be to fix what is already there. In the meantime, mzungu's great-grandson would be happy to see the original work done by the ancestors:
(http://www.theeagora.com/savetherailway/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Konza-Station.jpg)
(http://i2.wp.com/www.savetherailway.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Konza-Railway-Staiton-Layout.jpg?fit=1024%2C531)
(http://i1.wp.com/www.savetherailway.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/MazerasRailwayStation.jpg?fit=1365%2C768)
(http://i1.wp.com/www.savetherailway.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/MiritiniRailwayStation.jpg?fit=1152%2C768)
ETC.
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RVR are suppose to fix and run the old rail line for 25yrs. IFC messed up big time and we are stuck with RVR for another 20 or so years. Ethiopia up north, poorer than kenya, are building 5,000kms of SGR...and here we are complaining about 500Km of SGR..and arguing about nonsense like viability..when everyone knows a rail line will last hundrend of years.
Excluding the SGR, Kenya has something like 2,200 km of railways. But someone forgot the little matter of maintenance, so only half of that is operational. A good start would be to fix what is already there. In the meantime, mzungu's great-grandson would be happy to see the original work done by the ancestors:
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A power line parallel to the SGR is being built - electrifying in future shouldn't be a big deal.
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RVR are suppose to fix and run the old rail line for 25yrs. IFC messed up big time and we are stuck with RVR for another 20 or so years.
I believe RVR's concession is limited to direct Mombasa-Uganda line, which is the part of existing railways that is still functional.
.when everyone knows a rail line will last hundrend of years.
Indeed. Like this in Kenya :D:
(http://i1.wp.com/www.savetherailway.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/MazerasRailwayStation.jpg?fit=1365%2C768)
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I believe once we are done with SGR..we will convert the existing MGR to SGR & modernize it. RVR ran the Nairobi metro line...so I don't know if that too is part of Uganda line. Part of the problem with current rail is the technology has changed.Definitely these are long term projects that will last 100yrs and we should not worry about viability -if the financiers are ready to fund it.
That rail fell apart like everything else did during Moi disastrous rule.
RVR are suppose to fix and run the old rail line for 25yrs. IFC messed up big time and we are stuck with RVR for another 20 or so years.
I believe RVR's concession is limited to direct Mombasa-Uganda line, which is the part of existing railways that is still functional.
.when everyone knows a rail line will last hundrend of years.
Indeed. Like this in Kenya :D:
(http://i1.wp.com/www.savetherailway.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/MazerasRailwayStation.jpg?fit=1365%2C768)
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I believe once we are done with SGR..we will convert the existing MGR to SGR & modernize it. RVR ran the Nairobi metro line...so I don't know if that too is part of Uganda line. Part of the problem with current rail is the technology has changed.Definitely these are long term projects that will last 100yrs and we should not worry about viability -if the financiers are ready to fund it.
Red: You stated that "fix and run the old rail line for 25yrs", and I responded with a remark on RVR's concession. Is the Nairobi "metro line" part of the "old rail line"? Is it included in the RVR concession agreement on the "old rail line"?
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I reckon the whole MGR is concession-ed to RVR. It messy that IFC left us with. Nobody is willing to invest the capital needed to bring it back to full capacity. I read they are doing 1m tonnes..which is not bad..but far from 5m tonnes it did in the 80s.
Red: You stated that "fix and run the old rail line for 25yrs", and I responded with a remark on RVR's concession. Is the Nairobi "metro line" part of the "old rail line"? Is it included in the RVR concession agreement on the "old rail line"?