Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on October 03, 2021, 02:12:36 PM
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This guy normally has good data
The mass voters’ registration exercise in the country kicks off tomorrow, 4th October 2021 and will run for 30 days.
The IEBC targets a total of 6 Million new voters based on the current population estimates, and I have gone a step-further to provide the estimates by counties (my estimate is 6.4 Million new voters)
I have used the 2019 population data and then projected the current population per county, and thereafter estimating the non-registered population per county as provided in the table below.
The non-registered population is therefore the potential number of new voters expected in the current registration processing assuming a 100% turn-out; which obviously will not be achieved
Based on the estimates, 5 counties namely Nairobi, Kiambu, Nakuru, Machakos and Kajiado records the highest number of potential new voters.
Combined, the 5 counties have a potential of 1.9 Million new voters which is nearly a third of the potential new voters in the country.
Suffice to say that these 5 counties have also the highest share of urban population in the country and as such this is going to play a huge role in the registration turn-out as witnessed in the past which is always relatively low
Take an example with Kiambu County. Although the county is ranked 2nd with the highest number of potential new voters, nearly 55% of these are from just 4 constituencies namely Thika Town, Ruiru, Juja and Kiambaa; with the other 8 constituencies scrambling for the remaining 45%.
On the flip side, the bottom 5 counties with the least potential number of new voters are Nyeri, Tana River, Nyandarua, Tharaka Nithi and Lamu. Combined, the 5 counties have a total of 115k new potential voters.
Keenly and looking at the table; 7 Mt. Kenya Counties are appearing in the bottom half of the table (excluding Meru, Nakuru and Kiambu Counties)
Actually, the 7 counties of Mt. Kenya (Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Embu, Laikipia and Tharaka Nithi) have a total potential of 300,000 new voters which is just 60,000 shy of the potential new voters in Turkana County alone (in my next post, I will focus on the ASAL)
In simpler terms, if Turkana was to reach it’s potential of the 240,000 new voters; then, it would add to it’s total voting population 86% of what the 7 counties of Mt. Kenya would add if they also reached 100% achievement.
Why then would counties in Mt. Kenya Region (excluding Kiambu, Meru and Nakuru) record such low number of potential voters in the current round of registration. They have been known as the tyranny of counties?
The answer is available in previous posts I have done. However, I provide some summaries:
1. The Mt. Kenya counties recorded the highest registration in 2017 reaching almost its peak. Nyeri, Nyandarua, Tharaka Nithi and Murang’a all had a registration turn-out of over 90% which was the highest in the country. In simple terms and take an example with Nyeri County; the county had an estimated voting population of 483,000 in 2017; and the registered voters were 457,000. So, with the new registration ongoing, the only likely new voters are the population that reached 18 years after 2017, or new immigrants.
2. As also earlier highlighted in this timeline, the population growth in Mt. Kenya Region (excluding Kiambu, Meru and Nakuru) is quite low, with most recording a growth of less than 1%. As such, the proportion of above 18 vs. under 18 is disproportionate favoring the older, with even a ratio of as high as 65:35.
3. The 7 Mt. Kenya counties continue recording a high out-migration rate compared with the other 3 counties of Nakuru, Kiambu and Meru which are urbanizing at a very high rate. As of 2019, the share or urban population in Kiambu was 70% and 48% in Nakuru being among the top 5 urbanized counties in Kenya
4. Look at the age pyramid below for Nyeri and note what happens at about 18 years? The population starts diminishing, and this is driven by out-migration rate which is quite high
#DataSpeaks
(https://scontent-cdt1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/243931637_10220367365323083_7051996683467830831_n.jpg?_nc_cat=103&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=mAEPHdMOB2kAX95MbOr&_nc_ht=scontent-cdt1-1.xx&oh=d5f7aa2579e05b615428802affc2b7c7&oe=617D5EB1)
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Going by 2017 - only about 62 percent new voters registered - out of the target. So assuming the same constant is maintain - out of 6M votes - we should assume about 4M new votes.
So we should expect about 23-24M votes by end of this exercises.
Going by 2017 - the least new voters came from western kenya - I am not sure if it disintress or the fact that out-migration to Nairobi/urban area is so high.
https://www.iebc.or.ke/uploads/resources/HaG0IkuoAS.pdf
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Never Trust Census numbers. As long as the numbers are not backed by Birth Certificates or any form of identification then just know they are hogwash.
After 2010 Constituion and devolution , Counties fake the numbers because they are a factor in aquiring devolved funds.
Like 2009 Census were heavily rigged in favour of Western Counties when it came to 2013 and 2017 elections people were no where to be seen.
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IEBC normally have the data for registered voters/births/Ids - but after supreme court rulling - they have decide to disclose the bare minimum - and reduce exposure from lawsuit.
Supreme court fingered them for provisional results transmission that was nice to have - for example.
But no hurry in africa - in two months - we will know how registration will look like.
Definitely urban areas of Nairobi Metro, Mombasa Metro, Nakuru and such is seeing large population increase.
Maybe in another two decade urban population will increase from 30 to 50 percent - and eventually in by 100 percent by 2100 when we will all be dead :) - and tribalism will have ended.
Never Trust Census numbers. As long as the numbers are not backed by Birth Certificates or any form of identification then just know they are hogwash.
After 2010 Constituion and devolution , Counties fake the numbers because they are a factor in aquiring devolved funds.
Like 2009 Census were heavily rigged in favour of Western Counties when it came to 2013 and 2017 elections people were no where to be seen.
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The results will be more or less than 2017 results.
IEBC normally have the data for registered voters/births/Ids - but after supreme court rulling - they have decide to disclose the bare minimum - and reduce exposure from lawsuit.
Supreme court fingered them for provisional results transmission that was nice to have - for example.
But no hurry in africa - in two months - we will know how registration will look like.
Definitely urban areas of Nairobi Metro, Mombasa Metro, Nakuru and such is seeing large population increase.
Maybe in another two decade urban population will increase from 30 to 50 percent - and eventually in by 100 percent by 2100 when we will all be dead :) - and tribalism will have ended.
Never Trust Census numbers. As long as the numbers are not backed by Birth Certificates or any form of identification then just know they are hogwash.
After 2010 Constituion and devolution , Counties fake the numbers because they are a factor in aquiring devolved funds.
Like 2009 Census were heavily rigged in favour of Western Counties when it came to 2013 and 2017 elections people were no where to be seen.
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Mt kenya might not have the incentive to register like they did...
I will study to see if the enthusiam to register corralate with voter turnout.
That will give us glues on where action will be in 2022.
These small percentage are only important if Riala fortunes improve drastically to match Ruto.
The results will be more or less than 2017 results.
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Hatuko mbali , In a few weeks time....
Mt kenya might not have the incentive to register like they did...
I will study to see if the enthusiam to register corralate with voter turnout.
That will give us glues on where action will be in 2022.
These small percentage are only important if Riala fortunes improve drastically to match Ruto.
The results will be more or less than 2017 results.
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I continue with the analysis of the potential new voters in the forthcoming mass registration process, and I now focus on the ASAL Counties
These are the counties which are presumed to have small population and most of the time focus is not given to them during the entire electioneering process
Interestingly and in coming days, these counties will turn to be the hot-cake in respect to numbers, and they will soon be becoming the new center of “tyranny of numbers”, assuming their potential is reached.
In the analysis, I have compared the numbers in the Pastoralist Counties against Mt. Kenya counties (“the de-facto populous region”). In Mt. Kenya, I have excluded Nakuru and Kiambu due to their urban nature, while in the ASAL Counties, I have excluded Kajiado for the same reason.
Look closely at the table below, and you will notice that the 9 ASAL Counties had a total population of 6.2M which was like 100k higher than the 6.1M in the 8 Mt. Kenya Counties in 2019. Now you know!
But by 2022, the gap in favor of the 9 ASAL Counties will have increased to about 250k and by 2032, this gap will have widened to over 1M.
Obviously, this difference is driven by the demographic dynamics in both areas and won’t emphasize them again as I have highlighted them in the past
However, when it comes to the voters registered, Mt. Kenya will continue to dominate in the next few years though will be overtaken sooner than later by other regions; and sooner, could even be by 2027
Take an example with the current mass registration; the total potential new voters in the 8 Mt. Kenya Counties is 510k while in the 9 ASAL Counties it’s 1.23M; with the ASAL Counties having 716k more new voters assuming a 100% turn-out than Mt. Kenya!!!
This technically means that just 5 years after the 2017 elections; the gap between the Mt. Kenya Registered Voters and the ASAL Counties would shrink from 1.69M to just 950k (assuming 100% turn-out); and this is in 5 years!!! Let that sink!!!
Unfortunately, the ASAL Counties are unlikely to hit the 100% turn-out in the registration as is easily the case with Mt. Kenya.
As indicated in the morning, the % registration turn-out for Mt. Kenya Region in 2017 was 86% while in the ASAL Counties it was 55%
Many reasons play into the low registration turn-out in the ASAL Counties; including security, long distances, cultural reasons among others; and to some extent design reasons!!
Look at this, IEBC is distributing 3 BVR Kits for registration per ward! This is regardless of the population to be registered or the distances to be registered.
With this and taking into consideration the total potential new voters, the average number of people to be registered per day in the 30 days in the 8 Mt. Kenya Counties is about 28 while in the ASAL is 63; that’s like 2.3 more times
While it would be possible to register 28 people per day in Mt. Kenya where the average distance to a registration center is about 5 KMs, it’s practically impossible to register 63 per day in the ASAL where the average distance to a registration center is almost 60 KMs; and even when the kits are mobile, the numbers are still huge in the ASAL Areas
You see, the 9 ASAL Counties occupies an area of 340,115 sq.km which is nearly 58% of Kenya, yet, the 8 Mt. Kenya Counties occupies an area of 32,537 sq.kms which is 10 times less than the 9 ASAL Counties.
Though the population is nearly equal, the population to be registered in the ASAL is almost 2.5 times higher than in the 8 Mt. Kenya counties; yet, both regions gets almost an equal number of BVR Kits. As such, it’s unlikely that ASAL will reach even 60% of it’s potential despite having the number.
Whether by design or default, ASAL Counties will have the numbers, but registration may not reach 60%!
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Kizungu Mingi, All those census numbers are cooked with the target being devolved funds.
I have told you the results will be more or less 2017 results. Utajionea tu
I continue with the analysis of the potential new voters in the forthcoming mass registration process, and I now focus on the ASAL Counties
These are the counties which are presumed to have small population and most of the time focus is not given to them during the entire electioneering process
Interestingly and in coming days, these counties will turn to be the hot-cake in respect to numbers, and they will soon be becoming the new center of “tyranny of numbers”, assuming their potential is reached.
In the analysis, I have compared the numbers in the Pastoralist Counties against Mt. Kenya counties (“the de-facto populous region”). In Mt. Kenya, I have excluded Nakuru and Kiambu due to their urban nature, while in the ASAL Counties, I have excluded Kajiado for the same reason.
Look closely at the table below, and you will notice that the 9 ASAL Counties had a total population of 6.2M which was like 100k higher than the 6.1M in the 8 Mt. Kenya Counties in 2019. Now you know!
But by 2022, the gap in favor of the 9 ASAL Counties will have increased to about 250k and by 2032, this gap will have widened to over 1M.
Obviously, this difference is driven by the demographic dynamics in both areas and won’t emphasize them again as I have highlighted them in the past
However, when it comes to the voters registered, Mt. Kenya will continue to dominate in the next few years though will be overtaken sooner than later by other regions; and sooner, could even be by 2027
Take an example with the current mass registration; the total potential new voters in the 8 Mt. Kenya Counties is 510k while in the 9 ASAL Counties it’s 1.23M; with the ASAL Counties having 716k more new voters assuming a 100% turn-out than Mt. Kenya!!!
This technically means that just 5 years after the 2017 elections; the gap between the Mt. Kenya Registered Voters and the ASAL Counties would shrink from 1.69M to just 950k (assuming 100% turn-out); and this is in 5 years!!! Let that sink!!!
Unfortunately, the ASAL Counties are unlikely to hit the 100% turn-out in the registration as is easily the case with Mt. Kenya.
As indicated in the morning, the % registration turn-out for Mt. Kenya Region in 2017 was 86% while in the ASAL Counties it was 55%
Many reasons play into the low registration turn-out in the ASAL Counties; including security, long distances, cultural reasons among others; and to some extent design reasons!!
Look at this, IEBC is distributing 3 BVR Kits for registration per ward! This is regardless of the population to be registered or the distances to be registered.
With this and taking into consideration the total potential new voters, the average number of people to be registered per day in the 30 days in the 8 Mt. Kenya Counties is about 28 while in the ASAL is 63; that’s like 2.3 more times
While it would be possible to register 28 people per day in Mt. Kenya where the average distance to a registration center is about 5 KMs, it’s practically impossible to register 63 per day in the ASAL where the average distance to a registration center is almost 60 KMs; and even when the kits are mobile, the numbers are still huge in the ASAL Areas
You see, the 9 ASAL Counties occupies an area of 340,115 sq.km which is nearly 58% of Kenya, yet, the 8 Mt. Kenya Counties occupies an area of 32,537 sq.kms which is 10 times less than the 9 ASAL Counties.
Though the population is nearly equal, the population to be registered in the ASAL is almost 2.5 times higher than in the 8 Mt. Kenya counties; yet, both regions gets almost an equal number of BVR Kits. As such, it’s unlikely that ASAL will reach even 60% of it’s potential despite having the number.
Whether by design or default, ASAL Counties will have the numbers, but registration may not reach 60%!
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My friend even an idiot knows family planning has reduced births in Mt kenya while Somalis and the type are still popping 11 kids per woman.
Population is dynamic.
Maasai were once the largest tribe in Kenya....before the arrival of Mzungu.
1900 - kenya population was 1M - now it's 50M.
Kizungu Mingi, All those census numbers are cooked with the target being devolved funds.
I have told you the results will be more or less 2017 results. Utajionea tu
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RV my point is very clear. I dont know where Mt Kenya is comming in here. Ofcourse you ve been on it for a while.
Can you answer me this question. During census were population of some areas overstated ? and what was the motivation ?
My friend even an idiot knows family planning has reduced births in Mt kenya while Somalis and the type are still popping 11 kids per woman.
Population is dynamic.
Maasai were once the largest tribe in Kenya....before the arrival of Mzungu.
1900 - kenya population was 1M - now it's 50M.
Kizungu Mingi, All those census numbers are cooked with the target being devolved funds.
I have told you the results will be more or less 2017 results. Utajionea tu
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Uhuru and Mwangi suppressed Somali figures and I suspect inflated Mt kenya numbers.
These things are obvious. There is a lot of data to reference
I have heard very low figures of Mt kenya registered kids to school - through NIMS - every kid need a birth certificate.
You have heard of stories of school closing and nurseries in mt kenya...while others are building more and more schools.
Dont expect Mt kenya to forever remain populous when your women are not popping more than 2 kids.
Mt kenya enjoyed a population boom in 1960s-1970s - that was time when an average kikuyu family had 10 kids.
Then by 1980s they started family planning.
Kalejin population boom started in 1970s -1980s.
Somali population boom started around 2000s.
I was aware of their 8 kids per women in 2004 when I worked for some NGO.
Everywhere you turn you're going to see a Somali it will be impossible to suppress their numbers.
Dont argue with data - this is just about women giving or not giving birth.
Europe/White use to be many times more than black - now black and whites are equal - about a billion each. Chinese,Indians and Asia are about 5B.
RV my point is very clear. I dont know where Mt Kenya is comming in here. Ofcourse you ve been on it for a while.
Can you answer me this question. During census were population of some areas overstated ? and what was the motivation ?
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Once again RV , Im not talking about MT Kenya.
My point is very clear , Overstating population vs Devolution.
Uhuru and Mwangi suppressed Somali figures and I suspect inflated Mt kenya numbers.
These things are obvious. There is a lot of data to reference
I have heard very low figures of Mt kenya registered kids to school - through NIMS - every kid need a birth certificate.
You have heard of stories of school closing and nurseries.
Dont expect Mt kenya to forever remain populous when your women are not popping more than 2 kids.
Mt kenya enjoyed a population boom in 1960s-1970s.
RV my point is very clear. I dont know where Mt Kenya is comming in here. Ofcourse you ve been on it for a while.
Can you answer me this question. During census were population of some areas overstated ? and what was the motivation ?
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How when Uhuru passed a law to allow Mwangi of Herufi house to correct any numbers. This is after high court had enforced 2009 census.
2019 figures are rigged in your favour.
Just stop it. And go have bedminton if you think it's important to be more popolous.
For me you're in very very good place.
You're about to become very rich.
Political you may be weaken but like Indians have shown us - Money is everything
Once again RV , Im not talking about MT Kenya.
My point is very clear , Overstating population vs Devolution.
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RV I repeat , Im not talking about Mt Kenya. Im talking about Census Vs Devolution. You are skirting around my question , Please answer it.
How when Uhuru passed a law to allow Mwangi of Herufi house to correct any numbers. This is after high court had enforced 2009 census.
2019 figures are rigged in your favour.
Just stop it. And go have bedminton if you think it's important to be more popolous.
For me you're in very very good place.
You're about to become very rich.
Political you may be weaken but like Indians have shown us - Money is everything
Once again RV , Im not talking about MT Kenya.
My point is very clear , Overstating population vs Devolution.
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Stop using your boss drugs. I see the boss himself is using it. Munajibeba mafala kweli.
RV I repeat , Im not talking about Mt Kenya. Im talking about Census Vs Devolution. You are skirting around my question , Please answer it.
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Jibu swali ?
Stop using your boss drugs. I see the boss himself is using it. Munajibeba mafala kweli.
RV I repeat , Im not talking about Mt Kenya. Im talking about Census Vs Devolution. You are skirting around my question , Please answer it.
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Naona watu wetu wametokea - Ruto turnout come 2022 will be historic in kalenjin land.
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IEBC has registered 202,518 new voters out of a weekly target of 1.5mn in the last seven days in the ongoing mass registration.
Look like it slightly above 10 percent of the target. Maybe last minute turnout - but definitely 6 million look like a mountain. Maybe 2-3 million is feasible.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-10-11-iebc-registers-200000-new-voters-out-of-a-weekly-target-of-15m/
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Like I predicted Kalenjin counties will see big registration and turnout as excitement of Ruto nicking it is at all time high. The Luos will also be hoping against hope for a miracle.
(https://cdn.standardmedia.co.ke/images/monday/vmj67du6qno8u46164125e02137.jpg)
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Mt Kenya counties are going to be depressed - turn out and registrations. Their share of national vote will drop from 27-28 percent to 25 percent.
(https://cdn.standardmedia.co.ke/images/monday/svy9nsbmncjch9lcns616412ca4a838.jpg)
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If iy continues like this, seems the election will be determined by 2017 voter registration.
As I have stated before Kenyan census is a hoax. Believe iy st your oen peril.
IEBC has registered 202,518 new voters out of a weekly target of 1.5mn in the last seven days in the ongoing mass registration.
Look like it slightly above 10 percent of the target. Maybe last minute turnout - but definitely 6 million look like a mountain. Maybe 2-3 million is feasible.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-10-11-iebc-registers-200000-new-voters-out-of-a-weekly-target-of-15m/
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There is the last minute kenya rush - but I also feel many people are not excited about elections. We need to compare 1st week data of 2017 - to see if this normal kenya way or not.
But I feel
1) NASA strongholds are yet to recover from Raila pulling out of repeat elections. They dont know if system will do everything or not.
2) Mt Kenya are depressed by current state of politics. Without their own strong candidate - or even strong DPORK - with Uhuru dissappointing second term - where he betrayed voters - people are wondering why they must vote - if handshake will happen. All the kumira kumira wembe ni ule ule thurakus...only for Raila to do handshake!!
3) Kalenjin and pastoralist group - are the ones that will gain small advantage this election circle. Ruto has generatd some excitement in that circle.
If iy continues like this, seems the election will be determined by 2017 voter registration.
As I have stated before Kenyan census is a hoax. Believe iy st your oen peril.
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All the counties.
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Yes RV Will record the highest. Mt kenya will also ahow up am sure UDA Will actively push for people to register
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RV can you arange by sorting out the highest to the lowest in terms of Target.
All the counties.
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My facebook friend has done it.
In 2017, Mt. Kenya as a region had a total of 5.3M votes and the voters turn-out was about 83% meaning that only about 4.4M voted.
The current registration is adding about 1.7M in the region but based on the current trends and low turn-out, its unlikely that the region will add anything beyond 400k.
That is to say that the region will have about 6M voters as of next year, but given mortality, out-migration and other demographic factors, the exact number might even be about 5.2M
Given the current apathy, political landscape among others, the region is likely not to a 55% voters turn-out in 2022. This would translate to about 3M votes.
(https://scontent.fnbo2-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/245347094_10220404142922500_3580735054053431127_n.jpg?_nc_cat=104&_nc_rgb565=1&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_eui2=AeGw2v_cjiSjGsTBqq1EhW47FKkdZKEU7fQUqR1koRTt9IbG-UzA1VS2__33UlUknxI&_nc_ohc=tnZjWwaPcEsAX-QKZyf&tn=G6G7sDIkcvhxQCfX&_nc_ht=scontent.fnbo2-1.fna&oh=28db45a96edeead5bf59a0e5c137f2ba&oe=618B2C5A)
RV can you arange by sorting out the highest to the lowest in terms of Target.
All the counties.
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Again from facebook - look like voter apathy is real?
Voter registration apathy seems the order of the day nationally, but it is highest in Mt. Kenya Region.
The current target for the registration is 6 Million new voters but by the end of Day 7, only 203,000 new voters had registered which is a bare 3.2% against a target of 25% for the first 7 days.
In 2017 during the mass registration of January/February, the first two weeks of the exercise had seen 54% of the potential new voters registered!
This is a huge difference and speaks volumes on the apathy in the country!!!!
Mt. Kenya Region which in the past has witnessed high turn-out during the registration exercise is currently lagging behind in the exercise.
As of Day 7, only 33,791 new voters had been listed against a target of 1.7Million with a % achievement of 1.9% which is the lowest nationally.
In simple terms, data indicates that that of the expected 405,000 new voters by the 7th day in Mt. Kenya; 371,000 did not register and this is 23.1% of the expected 25%
Compare this; in 2017 mass registration, by the 14th day, all Mt. Kenya Counties had reached the 30% target mark but in the current round and at day 7, the highest is Tharaka Nithi with only 3.1% registered although this is at Day 7.
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Look like we have second week of data
Pastoralist+Kalenjin still leading.
Central+Nairobi low interest.
Voter registration apathy continue across the countries with only 491,968 new voters registered in the past 14 days against an expected target of 3.1M for the same period (2 weeks)
Nationally, the % achievement for Week 2 is 15% which is significantly low compared with previous achievements in such mass registration exercises
For instance, the mass registration of January/February 2017 had seen 1.5M new voters registered in a span of 14 days from a target of 2.9M and this translated to a % achievement of 54%
Regionally, the highest % achievement as of Week 2 is recorded in the Pastoralist Counties recording a 25% achievement, and this is followed by the Kalenjin Rift whose achievement rate is 21%
Mt. Kenya Region records the lowest % achievement nationally with an estimate of 10%, or, only 87,392 new voters have been registered from a target of 853,391 in Week 2 in the 10 counties
The registration apathy seems lowest in Mt. Kenya region which in 2017 during the same exercise had registered 451,847 in 14 days and this translated to an achievement rate of 70%
To further confirm the low apathy in Mt. Kenya, in 2017 during the first 14 days, the 451,847 new voters represented 30% of the new registered voters nationally; but in the current round of registration, the 87,392 new registered voters in Mt. Kenya only represents 17% of the national new registered voters.
In the table below, Seven of the bottom Ten Counties with the lowest achievement rate are in Mt. Kenya Region
(https://scontent.fnbo2-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/246157403_10220432395548798_5423720678501274765_n.jpg?_nc_cat=110&_nc_rgb565=1&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_eui2=AeF9nXyLcrvRW4DBp4aOwlzieA15ppwBxpd4DXmmnAHGl3uN983QwmyEKMGR1wCs6PI&_nc_ohc=myyjUARNAfQAX8X51le&_nc_ht=scontent.fnbo2-1.fna&oh=38d8450f9f5ce5d5ebe7fc9f024be101&oe=6194A239)
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Overally there is serious drop in voter registration enthusiam?
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760K out of potential 4.5m - with last week to go.
Look like we will hit 1m - max 1.5m
Meaning we are talking about 21m votes - and turnout next year could be anything less than 70 percent.
We may have about same votes as 2017 - 15m - max 17m.
To score 50 percent - one requires 7.5m - 8.5m votes.
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1.4M but we have a week extension by Eldoret court...Let see if we can hit 2m.
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But IEBC have closed shop. Dont have money to pay clerks and rent out facilities
1.4M but we have a week extension by Eldoret court...Let see if we can hit 2m.
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I think chebukati said it's going on
But IEBC have closed shop. Dont have money to pay clerks and rent out facilities
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Eldoret court now allow IEBC to end it.
So maybe 1.5M new votes.
All signs of low turnout
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For legal reasons. Technically its over .
I think chebukati said it's going on
But IEBC have closed shop. Dont have money to pay clerks and rent out facilities
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This may be good for raila in Central. Young voters are the ones heavily supporting hustler movement. That my hunch. I have no data but what I am seeing ruto is very popular with those below 35 years.
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Raila will only be good once he manages to re-unite NASA. Without NASA - any little gains in Mt Kenya will be useless.
For Ruto - the job is simple - find replacement for the few in GEMA and possibly Gusii who may not vote for him - and also for the low turnout. He needs to work on Matusa, Coast, NEP and Western...and try to defend as much as he can gusii Jubilee vote.
I think Mt kenya will have low turnout - that would knock off about 3-4 percent of their voting strength - Mt kenya last election effective voting power was 27-28 percent - next year it could be down to 24-25 percent.
This may be good for raila in Central. Young voters are the ones heavily supporting hustler movement. That my hunch. I have no data but what I am seeing ruto is very popular with those below 35 years.
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Radio Africa poll
Raila 45.5%+
Ruto 28.5%+
Kalonzo 2.5%+
MaDVD 1.9%+
Gideon 0.9%
Others 20% including undecided.
There is still lots of noise from all jokers....but Ruto is doing great. Without undecided he cross 50 percent
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-11-19-raila-narrows-gap-with-ruto-new-poll/
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Look like we will be back at it for Jan. Someone in Gov not happy with numbers
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/iebc-to-carry-out-second-mass-voter-registration-next-month-3640862
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Still the progress not that good.
Look like we will be back at it for Jan. Someone in Gov not happy with numbers
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/iebc-to-carry-out-second-mass-voter-registration-next-month-3640862
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Yes it waste of money.. turn out will also be low..you don't know if you will vote gov that then become opposition..it total chaos..
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After effects of Handshake.
post 2007 and 2017 elections really messed up kenyan politics.
you vote for a person then kisses the enemy
Yes it waste of money.. turn out will also be low..you don't know if you will vote gov that then become opposition..it total chaos..
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With a week to go - we have 550K votes. If there is mad rush this week - we could hit a million- generally low registration - pointing to low turnout -as youths refuse to register - seem the choice of raila or ruto is not big deal for many -
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1) If he secures Kalonzo(OKA) crew - he add himself 1.3M votes - moves to 46 percent - that assumes 35 percent support in most GEMA (a stretch)
Percentage Total votes
William Ruto 53 8,577,693
Raila Odinga 39 6,299,301
Kalonzo Musyoka+GM 8 1,309,663
Turn out 77
2)Ruto would be at 53 percent - with a million more votes.
3) Where would Raila get a million extra votes? Remember Western - I have put Raila at 80 percent in Vihiga, 35 percent in Vihiga & Bungoma and 45 percent in Kakamega - with Ruto edging him in Kakamega by whisker (55 percent) - winning both Vihiga and Bungoma by 65 percent.
Coast+NEP - I have Raila already at 70 percent in Kilifi, 65 in Mombasa, he loses Kwale to Ruto but get 35 percent, and pretty much NEP+Matusa they are playing 50-50 with Ruto & Raila sharing the spoils.
4) Raila already doing well in Gusii scoring 70 percent - way more than he did in 2017.
5) So where else will he get votes?
6) Conclusion - based on the data - Raila need to score 50 percent of GEMA to go neck to neck with Ruto.
This only scenario he wins!! Anything short of 50 percent in Mt kenya for Raila is not going to cut.
In Summary
1) Sign OKA
2) Win 50 percent of Mt Kenya
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With a week to go - we have 550K votes. If there is mad rush this week - we could hit a million- generally low registration - pointing to low turnout -as youths refuse to register - seem the choice of raila or ruto is not big deal for many -
Youths in Central are with ruto. Hawkish millennial too. Ruto needs central youth to register in big numbers
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Predictably - another million registered - representing 12 percent of total eligible votes.
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https://www.iebc.or.ke/uploads/resources/O8rAt2pMWW.pdf