NASA has no path to victory - no path to 50%

[RV Pundit]

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When I give them 95% of Luhya, Luo,Ukambani, 100% of Gusii (), 75% of Coast & 2013 strongholds (and I crank the turn out to 85% from 65% in coast+turkana)...they still cannot get to 50%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

They still cannot beat Jubilee - who I give them about 90% of their stronghold

JUBILEE            NASA               
8427316.96   8408434.494   172254.8834
49.549117   49.43809596   1.012787037

Maybe we can give them whole of NEP+Isiolo+Marsabit (100% - and see if they can reach 50%.

It seem MOAS is pretty much settled with Jubilee winning by 53% verus NASA(46%) with non-starter candidates getting 1%.

With Jubilee beating NASA by 1m votes.

[RV Pundit]

[Omollo]

I take this ( above) as private personal therapy. I spent sometime looking in to it lest you had a point and found the truth is NASA still wins where there is no rigging.

Here is what Nairobi Law Monthly writes. They are known for biting and soothing but this is quite honest and for Pundit, I would recommend you drink a glass of very cold creamy milk because what they write about Ruto is gut wrenching for his supporter:

http://nairobilawmonthly.com/index.php/2017/02/02/uhuru-hope-re-elected/

[Nefertiti]

Pundit and Omollo cannot agree because they have a fundamentals variance. One believes tribalism reigns supreme, the other dwells on non-tribal factors to drive his argument. So they run different maths on the same numbers with different results.

The truth is somewhere in between.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit, the GEMA+Kalenjin coalition, by this Ruto checkmated Raila. Only a fallout with GEMA can stop Ruto from becoming president - I have noted this with much chagrin. Long live tribalism!

[RV Pundit]

Maybe if Ahmednassir concentrated on swaying his Mandera people from voting 95% Jubilee rather writting his rag with readership of 100 people; he'd have a chance to stop the juggernaut. These are the same facts that I told Kichwa and everyone in 2013 - that Uhuru worse case was to win in round one. And I remember telling Omollo - that only way for opposition to win - was to somehow break up GEMA+Kalenjin alliance. I suggest they front Isaac Ruto instead of Raila.

As of now...your impossible task is to block Uhuru from getting 0.5M votes from across the country. I suggest you start with Mandera where Uhuru will get 100k...it a battle btw Frontier & Jubilee (both Jubilee leaning) there....that leaves UhuRuto with 400k votes - another 100k from Wajir & Garissa - balance of 300k - another 100k from Isiolo+Mandera - and that leave Jubilee with 200k!

NASA has no path to victory. Jubilee at worse case scenario scores 50%.

The numbers are solidifying at 53% versus 46% - with Jubilee winning by close to 1M extra votes than NASA.

I take this ( above) as private personal therapy. I spent sometime looking in to it lest you had a point and found the truth is NASA still wins where there is no rigging.

Here is what Nairobi Law Monthly writes. They are known for biting and soothing but this is quite honest and for Pundit, I would recommend you drink a glass of very cold creamy milk because what they write about Ruto is gut wrenching for his supporter:

[RV Pundit]

That is not true. Omollo is tribalist per excellence. His hatred for kikuyu is legendary. Kichwa is the guy you're looking for...Kichwa believe issues triumph tribalism.We had long-running argument and he lost. Kenyans are irremediably tribal - and so is the world.

Pundit and Omollo cannot agree because they have a fundamentals variance. One believes tribalism reigns supreme, the other dwells on non-tribal factors to drive his argument. So they run different maths on the same numbers with different results.

The truth is somewhere in between.

[Omollo]

Pundit

You know this throwing around unfounded percentages can work for people such as RVHH, Joste, Energizer and Hubris.

The method of authorityThe method of the a priori The scientific method

Maybe if Ahmednassir concentrated on swaying his Mandera people from voting 95% Jubilee rather writting his rag with readership of 100 people; he'd have a chance to stop the juggernaut. These are the same facts that I told Kichwa and everyone in 2013 - that Uhuru worse case was to win in round one. And I remember telling Omollo - that only way for opposition to win - was to somehow break up GEMA+Kalenjin alliance. I suggest they front Isaac Ruto instead of Raila.

As of now...your impossible task is to block Uhuru from getting 0.5M votes from across the country. I suggest you start with Mandera where Uhuru will get 100k...it a battle btw Frontier & Jubilee (both Jubilee leaning) there....that leaves UhuRuto with 400k votes - another 100k from Wajir & Garissa - balance of 300k - another 100k from Isiolo+Mandera - and that leave Jubilee with 200k!

NASA has no path to victory. Jubilee at worse case scenario scores 50%.

The numbers are solidifying at 53% versus 46% - with Jubilee winning by close to 1M extra votes than NASA.

I take this ( above) as private personal therapy. I spent sometime looking in to it lest you had a point and found the truth is NASA still wins where there is no rigging.

Here is what Nairobi Law Monthly writes. They are known for biting and soothing but this is quite honest and for Pundit, I would recommend you drink a glass of very cold creamy milk because what they write about Ruto is gut wrenching for his supporter:

[RV Pundit]

That is quite a leap - from when I predicted to dot that Gusii will vote 67% for nasa and 24% for Jubilee - and you said I was part to the  Jubilee rigging...to now when you claim I am throwing numbers recklessly.

This election is very easy to call - last time we had trouble with maDVD (luhyas) & turn out -

This one we only have trouble with turnout. I'll play around with all possible turn out scenarios in the near future and hopefully find some path to NASA victory.

As of now...Jubilee are starting at 47% from their base...and just need 3% to nick it.

Pundit
You know this throwing around unfounded percentages can work for people such as RVHH, Joste, Energizer and Hubris.

[Omollo]

That is not true. Omollo is tribalist per excellence. His hatred for kikuyu is legendary. Kichwa is the guy you're looking for...Kichwa believe issues triumph tribalism.We had long-running argument and he lost. Kenyans are irremediably tribal - and so is the world.

I have no hatred for the Kikuyu.

But I admit to harbouring unknown quantities (probably unlimited) of detestation for those of the Kikuyu Intelligentsia who have turned ordinary Kikuyus into pawns and fodder to fire their own bigotry.

I have defended the blanket condemnation of Kikuyus in all fora. My record is clean.

However the same Intelligentsia has periodically launched attacks at me and tried to present me a tribalist - the same unfounded labels they use on any of the people who oppose their abuse of the poor.