Author Topic: Dear Robina, Cash is King, the Rest are Details (Read 15684 times)

vooke · « **on:** March 30, 2018, 10:35:42 AM »

So I wake up to NY Times censuring Tesla.

The company is running on debt fumes, and even that is busy running out. Tesla is a scam and a cult rolled into one

There is a huge part of Tesla that is simply presentation and not substance, and Elon is a master at messaging,https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/29/business/tesla-elon-musk.html

It does not matter what a 'visionary' you are, businesses are pretty simple to figure out; generate more cash than you burn and you live forever

vooke · « **Reply #1 on:** March 30, 2018, 10:50:34 AM »

Let me tell you for free that Tesla took over Solar City to cover up the massive losses the company was bleeding. Musk is obsessed with invincibility and that will be his undoing. Instead of admitting that the solar business is no match for Kung Fu, he folds it up under the already distressed Tesla.

Another thing on Model 3 is production costs exceed the $35K cost. But he already promised. To produce means incurring massive losses hence the delays.

Nefertiti · « **Reply #2 on:** April 01, 2018, 11:46:48 PM »

Ohh vooke. NYTimes is a longtime Tesla cynic. Tesla's success is pegged on brand... which is unbroken otherwise there would be order cancellations. I am looking out for the Q1 results this week - especially orders (brand) - not deliveries (automation). How can the analysts talk of over-automation? what is that based on - guesswork? Ramp up will have teething problems as it picks up; so expect the cash-burning cries to escalate right now and abate in the medium term.. as Model 3s and semis are minted flawlessly and cheaply. That's as far as production goes.

Autopilot - just like the last 2 crashes and I think even with Uber and GM Cruise, the driver ignored repeated warnings from Autopilot. These includes signals, bonks and water spray

How is Autopilot responsible? Level 3 autonomy means the AD does not have complete agency or autonomy but will assist on the free highway or well-marked streets. Unmarked roads and complex case scenarios it will alert the human driver.

SolarCity - also called Tesla Energy, is a perfect synergy for Tesla Motors. EV's basically replace the combustion engine with the battery. So the merger was a vertical integration. They also acquired Grohmann Engineering from Germany which became Tesla Advanced Automation. To help with the automation of course.

I see no reason to short Tesla at this point at all. Model 3 cannot fail because - duhhh - it is already on sale. Mass production is a matter of time - they can't fail here because scaling through automated assembly lines has already been proven to work in other autos and industries. GM delivers millions of cars - the robots don't care if it's an EV or combustion or hybrid. Why should that matter? The only thing Tesla is innovating is 1)speed of ramp up. As in the Fords, Toyotas, etc took decades to scale - to grow and go cheap. 2)cost to produce a hitec sedan on 35K sio mchezo. Automation and vertical integration comes in here. This is the catch that has Daimler and GM worried. Musk has done this before with SpaceX rockets and it is therefore not unproven.

You see , the 'hype' is not a trick, it's a plan. In short, my diagnosis of Tesla is healthy. Hold. Buy.

Nefertiti · « **Reply #3 on:** April 02, 2018, 12:07:44 PM »

Pastor to watch the EV and AD race just look out for Brand... Any money-minting company can buy up a LiDAR, EV or any other startup. GM already has cheap autonomous EVs lined up at the factory. What Tesla is struggling to do is a piece of cake for the behemoth. The difference is GM has to push its stock which is paraded in stores globally... while Tesla has advance orders.

With hordes of fans - forget customers

- for juggling SpaceX, The Boring Company, Neuralink and Tesla; selling flamethrowers; sending Roadsters to space... Elon Musk aka "real life ironman" is the brand. That's quite hard to beat.

Nefertiti · « **Reply #4 on:** April 02, 2018, 12:21:03 PM »

Two years ago to the day, I put down a deposit on a car I’d never even seen before. Today, I picked up my dream car. #model3 #tesla pic.twitter.com/Adf7glOEC8
— Amanda Bell (@amanda_bell_) April 1, 2018

vooke · « **Reply #5 on:** April 02, 2018, 08:44:23 PM »

Quote from: Robina on April 01, 2018, 11:46:48 PM

Ohh vooke. NYTimes is a longtime Tesla cynic. Tesla's success is pegged on brand... which is unbroken otherwise there would be order cancellations. I am looking out for the Q1 results this week - especially orders (brand) - not deliveries (automation). How can the analysts talk of over-automation? what is that based on - guesswork? Ramp up will have teething problems as it picks up; so expect the cash-burning cries to escalate right now and abate in the medium term.. as Model 3s and semis are minted flawlessly and cheaply. That's as far as production goes.

Autopilot - just like the last 2 crashes and I think even with Uber and GM Cruise, the driver ignored repeated warnings from Autopilot. These includes signals, bonks and water spray How is Autopilot responsible? Level 3 autonomy means the AD does not have complete agency or autonomy but will assist on the free highway or well-marked streets. Unmarked roads and complex case scenarios it will alert the human driver.

SolarCity - also called Tesla Energy, is a perfect synergy for Tesla Motors. EV's basically replace the combustion engine with the battery. So the merger was a vertical integration. They also acquired Grohmann Engineering from Germany which became Tesla Advanced Automation. To help with the automation of course.

I see no reason to short Tesla at this point at all. Model 3 cannot fail because - duhhh - it is already on sale. Mass production is a matter of time - they can't fail here because scaling through automated assembly lines has already been proven to work in other autos and industries. GM delivers millions of cars - the robots don't care if it's an EV or combustion or hybrid. Why should that matter? The only thing Tesla is innovating is 1)speed of ramp up. As in the Fords, Toyotas, etc took decades to scale - to grow and go cheap. 2)cost to produce a hitec sedan on 35K sio mchezo. Automation and vertical integration comes in here. This is the catch that has Daimler and GM worried. Musk has done this before with SpaceX rockets and it is therefore not unproven.

You see , the 'hype' is not a trick, it's a plan. In short, my diagnosis of Tesla is healthy. Hold. Buy.

https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Teslas-corporate-family-rating-to-B3-senior-notes--PR_381481

Nefertiti · « **Reply #6 on:** April 03, 2018, 12:32:51 AM »

Quote from: vooke on April 02, 2018, 08:44:23 PM

https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Teslas-corporate-family-rating-to-B3-senior-notes--PR_381481

Trivial: poor analysis of brand and cash projection.

BRAND
Moody's main issues are 1) Model 3 production ramp up - which I have discussed above and 2) Medium term liquidity due to cash-burn. I have explained here that cash-burn is a teething problem that will soon abate with ramp up. Model 3 ramp up cannot fail because it has been done before and continues to be done. It's a matter of time. Yet those who have the lead - Nissan, Daimler, GM, etc - have low demand regardless of their ready supplies. There is nothing to differentiate auto's including EV's - in terms of tech like power or AD - except cost and brand. Tesla is the best EV brand.

CASH
Then there will be the automation dividend after the ramp up : cost per head drops, revenues go up (expect order momentum including semis and the new Roadster), cash-burn stops, profits follow.

Moody's is betting the Tesla brand is not strong enough to offset the cash burn. But good sales and/then stock value will tell creditors it's ok to lend to Tesla. We will see this week in Q1 report and the market reaction. Moody's, not Tesla, will be laughing stock soon.

Nefertiti · « **Reply #7 on:** April 03, 2018, 01:02:13 AM »

It's not the first time shorters have been bruised by Tesla. 2018 will be brutal.

Oct-2016

https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/9kn9za/why-are-investors-paying-millions-to-bet-against-tesla

Apr-2017
Traders have lost billions betting against Tesla (TSLA)
http://www.pulselive.co.ke/bi/finance/finance-traders-have-lost-billions-betting-against-tesla-tsla-id6510890.html

Aug-2017
Hedge funds lose more than half a billion on wrong-way bet against Tesla
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/03/hedge-funds-set-to-lose-hundreds-of-millions-on-wrong-way-bet-against-tesla.html

Jan-2018
TESLA HATERS WHO 'SHORT' THE STOCK HAVE LOST $1 BILLION SINCE THE NEW YEAR
https://evannex.com/blogs/news/tesla-haters-who-short-the-stock-have-lost-1-billion-since-the-new-year

vooke · « **Reply #8 on:** April 03, 2018, 11:01:07 AM »

Quote from: Robina on April 03, 2018, 01:02:13 AM

It's not the first time shorters have been bruised by Tesla. 2018 will be brutal.

Oct-2016

https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/9kn9za/why-are-investors-paying-millions-to-bet-against-tesla

Apr-2017
Traders have lost billions betting against Tesla (TSLA)
http://www.pulselive.co.ke/bi/finance/finance-traders-have-lost-billions-betting-against-tesla-tsla-id6510890.html

Aug-2017
Hedge funds lose more than half a billion on wrong-way bet against Tesla
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/03/hedge-funds-set-to-lose-hundreds-of-millions-on-wrong-way-bet-against-tesla.html

Jan-2018
TESLA HATERS WHO 'SHORT' THE STOCK HAVE LOST $1 BILLION SINCE THE NEW YEAR
https://evannex.com/blogs/news/tesla-haters-who-short-the-stock-have-lost-1-billion-since-the-new-year

None of this is NYTimes. Please withdraw your claim

Asante

vooke · « **Reply #9 on:** April 03, 2018, 11:26:33 AM »

Quote from: Robina on April 03, 2018, 12:32:51 AM

Quote from: vooke on April 02, 2018, 08:44:23 PM
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Teslas-corporate-family-rating-to-B3-senior-notes--PR_381481

Trivial: poor analysis of brand and cash projection.

BRAND
Moody's main issues are 1) Model 3 production ramp up - which I have discussed above and 2) Medium term liquidity due to cash-burn. I have explained here that cash-burn is a teething problem that will soon abate with ramp up. Model 3 ramp up cannot fail because it has been done before and continues to be done. It's a matter of time. Yet those who have the lead - Nissan, Daimler, GM, etc - have low demand regardless of their ready supplies. There is nothing to differentiate auto's including EV's - in terms of tech like power or AD - except cost and brand. Tesla is the best EV brand.

CASH
Then there will be the automation dividend after the ramp up : cost per head drops, revenues go up (expect order momentum including semis and the new Roadster), cash-burn stops, profits follow.

Moody's is betting the Tesla brand is not strong enough to offset the cash burn. But good sales and/then stock value will tell creditors it's ok to lend to Tesla. We will see this week in Q1 report and the market reaction. Moody's, not Tesla, will be laughing stock soon.

Nefertiti · « **Reply #10 on:** April 03, 2018, 12:33:42 PM »

Quote from: vooke on April 03, 2018, 11:26:33 AM

Tesla has postponed mass production of Model 3 INDEFINITELY

Uh? I missed all that. There is nothing about postpone or indefinite in the news. As it is they have hit 2K vs 2.5K in production. 80% score. This is a teething not insurmountable problem. I expect the advance orders to be higher than expected and the stock then the credit rating will be back up.

Tesla is making over 2,000 Model 3s a week, as crucial deadline approaches
https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/2/17188894/tesla-model-3-production-target-elon-musk

https://techcrunch.com/2018/04/02/elon-musk-just-took-charge-of-model-3-production-saying-its-his-most-critical-job-right-now/

Nefertiti · « **Reply #11 on:** April 03, 2018, 12:35:49 PM »

Quote from: vooke on April 03, 2018, 11:01:07 AM

None of this is NYTimes. Please withdraw your claim

Asante

I meant to show by the links how Moody's and most everyone have been wrong on Tesla all along. What makes them correct this time? Factually and statistically they are wrong yet again. Reasoning like Ramp-up is a rocket launch that will succeed or explode into a fireball. It's not a yes-no but an exponential uptake in manufacturing efficiency, speed and cost. The only question is time.

Withdraw what? hmm I'll take it under advisory.

vooke · « **Reply #12 on:** April 03, 2018, 01:12:27 PM »

Quote from: Robina on April 03, 2018, 12:35:49 PM

Quote from: vooke on April 03, 2018, 11:01:07 AM
None of this is NYTimes. Please withdraw your claim

Asante

I meant to show by the links how Moody's and most everyone have been wrong on Tesla all along. What makes them correct this time? Factually and statistically they are wrong yet again. Reasoning like Ramp-up is a rocket launch that will succeed or explode into a fireball. It's not a yes-no but an exponential uptake in manufacturing efficiency, speed and cost. The only question is time.

Withdraw what? hmm I'll take it under advisory.

You said NY Times are negative/cynical on Tesla and I was waiting for articles to this effect. You left that and slapped me with links I did not bother with because they are not NY Times

Nefertiti · « **Reply #13 on:** April 03, 2018, 01:26:14 PM »

Pastor as you mourn my assault on poor helpless NYT, I doubt you have contemplated what SpaceX is really planning on the space front? The advanced satellites in the works. With space-faring, -tourism, interplanet trips, you need a sort of space traffic control and the FCC, NASA, ISS are hardly equipped. The internet-beaming satellite galaxy SpaceX has been talking up is a pilot to develop the tech for the real "space machines". These plans seem to fly under the media's nose mostly because SpaceX is privately held.

There is nothing magical about EV or AD or any car tech more complex than the space. In fact the missed deadlines are not an issue internally where actual planning is done. The mega-projections and invincible persona is marketing 101. During the Q1 call expect more hype: how would hitting a target be okay? There will be new bigger targets for the media and public's consumption.

Nefertiti · « **Reply #14 on:** April 03, 2018, 01:45:52 PM »

Tesla Goes Bankrupt
Palo Alto, California, April 1, 2018 -- Despite intense efforts to raise money, including a last-ditch mass sale of Easter Eggs, we are sad to report that Tesla has gone completely and totally bankrupt. So bankrupt, you can't believe it.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 1, 2018

Nefertiti · « **Reply #15 on:** April 03, 2018, 01:46:47 PM »

Elon was found passed out against a Tesla Model 3, surrounded by "Teslaquilla" bottles, the tracks of dried tears still visible on his cheeks.

This is not a forward-looking statement, because, obviously, what's the point?

Happy New Month! pic.twitter.com/YcouvFz6Y1
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 1, 2018

Nefertiti · « **Reply #16 on:** April 04, 2018, 05:14:14 AM »

Pastor - in a Fremont second

Ramp-up on track - 80%
Model 3 orders up - overtook the Chevy to be US top EV
Stock going up again.. 5% up today

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-03/tesla-s-model-3-is-the-best-selling-electric-car-in-the-u-s

vooke · « **Reply #17 on:** April 04, 2018, 07:16:31 AM »

Quote from: Robina on April 03, 2018, 01:26:14 PM

Pastor as you mourn my assault on poor helpless NYT, I doubt you have contemplated what SpaceX is really planning on the space front? The advanced satellites in the works. With space-faring, -tourism, interplanet trips, you need a sort of space traffic control and the FCC, NASA, ISS are hardly equipped. The internet-beaming satellite galaxy SpaceX has been talking up is a pilot to develop the tech for the real "space machines". These plans seem to fly under the media's nose mostly because SpaceX is privately held.

There is nothing magical about EV or AD or any car tech more complex than the space. In fact the missed deadlines are not an issue internally where actual planning is done. The mega-projections and invincible persona is marketing 101. During the Q1 call expect more hype: how would hitting a target be okay? There will be new bigger targets for the media and public's consumption.

Dear Robina,
We are onto Tesla and nothing else. Asante

vooke · « **Reply #18 on:** April 04, 2018, 07:38:21 AM »

Quote from: Robina on April 04, 2018, 05:14:14 AM

Pastor - in a Fremont second

Ramp-up on track - 80%
Model 3 orders up - overtook the Chevy to be US top EV
Stock going up again.. 5% up today

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-03/tesla-s-model-3-is-the-best-selling-electric-car-in-the-u-s

Nefertiti · « **Reply #19 on:** April 04, 2018, 08:07:08 AM »

Quote from: vooke on April 04, 2018, 07:16:31 AM

Dear Robina,
We are onto Tesla and nothing else. Asante

Earth-landing reusable rockets are proof there is no hitec in EV or AD beyond Musk and Tesla. It's a fair point since we mention GM and Daimler too, don't we?

News:

Author Topic: Dear Robina, Cash is King, the Rest are Details (Read 15684 times)