Author Topic: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.  (Read 51251 times)

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #20 on: August 18, 2021, 08:02:27 PM »
Implausible. That Raila will take 40 percent of Mt kenya; or 65 percent of Luhya; Wacha bangi nani. That Raila will run with Luhya DPORK.

Plausible:  Raila will run with GEMA DPORK; he will create BBI pentagon of wakina Mutua, Mukhisa, Oparanya and Joho. With such a scenario - and even strong Uhuru backing - Raila will max out at 30. Someone like Mutua will give you zero votes..his big con game ended in 2017. He is like Mukhisa - big name - but even in his village - he has zero votes.

Implausible that OKA will survive. Both Kalonzo and MaDVD will not agree on who deputizes who. If they both agree - without Uhuru or Mt kenya buyout - it still 15 percent max ticket. It is likely MaDVD will go to the wire. I dont see Kalonzo being serious in his run - I think he is broke - without Muthama - he has no money. Raila doesnt want him - contrary to public opinion - I think Raila is angling for GEMA. Many in Luhya and Ukambani are fatigued voting Raila and all familiar story - so they have to try something else.

Plausible. Weta has a deal with Ruto. The idea is to have Weta-Lusaka-Chris Wamalwa - rollover Bungoma-Tranzioa. Weta gets the speaker position.The current Tranzoia gov will probably get CS. Raila will have Wamunyiyi-eseli-Kijana wamalwa-wangamati-mukhisa. Weta-Lusaka-Chris together with UDA wins by far. Wangamati group will depend on mood - either Raila or maDVD like AMANI of 2013.

Bottom-line. These are a lot of scenarios - but we have one plausible scenario.

2022 is simple. It's Ruto versus 50 plus 1.

Ruto even at 40 percent of GEMA :) - is still very strong - that gives him 40 percent - and will need only 10 percent. That without factoring deals with say Weta and or Kalonzo. Obviously, Ruto is so popular in mt kenya - worst I expect is 70 percent.


So 2022 - really no need to do MOAS for all crazy combinations except Ruto versus 50 percent.

I tell you what you need to factor in your MOASS maybe your scenario 4:-
By this time next week, if they haven't made up their mind, Baba is done trying to get OKA musketeers (who are busy trying to blackmail him) round to the table. He will call their bluff and proceed with new frontmen in the Kalonzo/Musalia regions. After all only Kalonzo may have a strong hold on his region. MdVD has very minuscule hold on Luhya & it is well known Weta is a Ruto/UDA mole in OKA. Weta will even loose his Bungoma Senator seat mapema asubuhi. In this scenario Baba will proceed with either Oparanya or Kituyi as running mate.

OKA will run with Kalonzo as flag bearer and Musalia as running mate. Mt. Kenya will split 3 ways.... Almost equally with UDA (40%), Baba/Jubilee (40%) & OKA (20%). Mark you also that for MdVD as running mate for Kalonzo, he almost kisses western bye! Baba gets the chunk of western (65%, OKA 20%, UDA 15%). Weta has no influence in western in spite of your wishful yarns.

In this scenario, 2022 will go to a run-off and Baba takes it with a coalition with OKA; and with BBI dead, they may only be offered some senior cabinet positions to form a coalition.



Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #21 on: August 18, 2021, 08:13:08 PM »
This is how they think - before shouting we were rigged. And when you tell them MOAS predicted - they claim I am part of the rigging. Delusional folks.

Note you dont even say Raila will get 40 % of Mt Kenya votes . Trying to hide the fact that Raila is a non seller in Mt Kenya you go and say Baba/Jubilee.
This is comical to say nonetheless

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #22 on: August 18, 2021, 08:45:25 PM »
Huyu pia amefanya yake

Offline Pragmatic

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #23 on: August 18, 2021, 08:46:45 PM »
Nyinyi wawili ndio delusional.... bure kabisa wewe Pundit na Noway-here... we will see how the chips fall!

This is how they think - before shouting we were rigged. And when you tell them MOAS predicted - they claim I am part of the rigging. Delusional folks.

Note you dont even say Raila will get 40 % of Mt Kenya votes . Trying to hide the fact that Raila is a non seller in Mt Kenya you go and say Baba/Jubilee.
This is comical to say nonetheless

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #24 on: August 18, 2021, 10:55:34 PM »
I have been in this business since 2005.
Nyinyi wawili ndio delusional.... bure kabisa wewe Pundit na Noway-here... we will see how the chips fall!

Offline Nowayhaha

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #25 on: August 18, 2021, 11:16:58 PM »

So Noway is delusional stating one simple fact ,Raila getting 40% in Mt is not possible.  Kibakis 2007 and Uhurus 2013, 2017 backing by Mt Kenya was not because they are popular or loved it was simply Mt Kenya were voting against Raila.
Im 2013 you lost because you thought Rift Valley will split votes and vote for Raila too. Same mistake you are doimg here.

Now I have previously gave a tactic to use so as to demarry Mt Kenya from Ruto .Its simple have Raila seem to publicly support Ruto . Let them appear together do a handshake..That would dent Rutos support in Mt Kenya .They would front and rally for one of their own.
Uhurus loss of Mt Kenya is attributed to Raila now you tell us Mt Kenya love Raila. What a Clown.

Nyinyi wawili ndio delusional.... bure kabisa wewe Pundit na Noway-here... we will see how the chips fall!

This is how they think - before shouting we were rigged. And when you tell them MOAS predicted - they claim I am part of the rigging. Delusional folks.

Note you dont even say Raila will get 40 % of Mt Kenya votes . Trying to hide the fact that Raila is a non seller in Mt Kenya you go and say Baba/Jubilee.
This is comical to say nonetheless

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #26 on: August 18, 2021, 11:41:50 PM »
Some politicians do not think. Imagine Kalonzo and MaDVD for a long time nursed dreams of having Mt Kenya. And yet the key is out there. They should have started attacking Raila from 2008.

Ruto knows this - that is why he reserves the best put-downs for Raila - he knows GEMA really love when someone take a hit on Raila.

Ruto will be found dead talking to Jakom.


So Noway is delusional stating one simple fact ,Raila getting 40% in Mt is not possible.  Kibakis 2007 and Uhurus 2013, 2017 backing by Mt Kenya was not because they are popular or loved it was simply Mt Kenya were voting against Raila.
Im 2013 you lost because you thought Rift Valley will split votes and vote for Raila too. Same mistake you are doimg here.

Now I have previously gave a tactic to use so as to demarry Mt Kenya from Ruto .Its simple have Raila seem to publicly support Ruto . Let them appear together do a handshake..That would dent Rutos support in Mt Kenya .They would front and rally for one of their own.
Uhurus loss of Mt Kenya is attributed to Raila now you tell us Mt Kenya love Raila. What a Clown.


Offline Arcadian_Dreamer

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #27 on: August 19, 2021, 02:07:30 AM »
@Pragmatic, Noway & Pundit are one and the same character.  :D Don't  fall for the oke doke

Your permutation is correct, Ruto will falter at the last hurdle you just watch.

Apart from Kikuyu makangas and his base the rest of the country hates him with passion. Discount the political malayas trooping to his house for cash, their tribes won't vote Ruto no matter what.

#we_got_this #it_is_ours #Tumbilee 3.0 is impossible
Sleep is good, death is better; but of course, The best would be never to have been born at all.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #28 on: August 19, 2021, 09:29:29 AM »
Nyar I don't need two handles.Nowaya is Kikuyu and pragmatic a bukusu odm dude

Offline Nowayhaha

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #29 on: August 19, 2021, 09:42:18 AM »


A luo saying which direction Mt Kenya will take.
For umpteeth time I repeat Im not RV , Im not Njuri Im me. Late OO used to say Im Moses Kuria then later Dennis Itumbi. Omollo says Im Muthamakistan whatever the hell that means .
Personally I think RV is Robina  Theybappear online same time and go back and go back and forth as if they are on a TV debate.

@Pragmatic, Noway & Pundit are one and the same character.  :D Don't  fall for the oke doke

Your permutation is correct, Ruto will falter at the last hurdle you just watch.

Apart from Kikuyu makangas and his base the rest of the country hates him with passion. Discount the political malayas trooping to his house for cash, their tribes won't vote Ruto no matter what.

#we_got_this #it_is_ours #Tumbilee 3.0 is impossible

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #30 on: August 19, 2021, 10:37:06 AM »
Anybody who mistake me for Robina is an idiot. Robina writes better English than me. Otherwise she is an idiot and it an insult to be compared to her or you - face it most of you - have LOW IQ. I have never needed two handles all my online life. I speak my mind and go home.

I appear almost daily here. Robina disappears whenever Raila is down - and reappears whenever there is some flicker of hope.

Personally I think RV is Robina  Theybappear online same time and go back and go back and forth as if they are on a TV debate.

Offline Nowayhaha

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #31 on: August 19, 2021, 11:19:33 AM »

Okay noted. So a simole question you have a HIGH IQ , who in Nipate has an IQ equivalent to yours ?

Anybody who mistake me for Robina is an idiot. Robina writes better English than me. Otherwise she is an idiot and it an insult to be compared to her or you - face it most of you - have LOW IQ. I have never needed two handles all my online life. I speak my mind and go home.

I appear almost daily here. Robina disappears whenever Raila is down - and reappears whenever there is some flicker of hope.

Personally I think RV is Robina  Theybappear online same time and go back and go back and forth as if they are on a TV debate.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #32 on: August 19, 2021, 11:26:18 AM »
Definitely not you. If you can mistake me for Robina - then you ruled yourself out.
Okay noted. So a simole question you have a HIGH IQ , who in Nipate has an IQ equivalent to yours ?

Offline Nowayhaha

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #33 on: August 19, 2021, 11:35:22 AM »

You said you have a high IQ just answer the question. Its very simple and direct.

Definitely not you. If you can mistake me for Robina - then you ruled yourself out.
Okay noted. So a simole question you have a HIGH IQ , who in Nipate has an IQ equivalent to yours ?

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #34 on: August 19, 2021, 11:38:08 AM »
Of course my friend - I knew from class 2 that I had high IQ - when I was being pitted against class 8 best math kid on mathematical tables :) - and I beat him :) That is just reality of life.
You said you have a high IQ just answer the question. Its very simple and direct.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #35 on: August 19, 2021, 01:23:48 PM »

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #36 on: August 20, 2021, 01:31:19 AM »
Yet another twitter poll; in lieu of opinion polls; this is the best we've got now

CONCLUSION: Raila is not making any inroads in Mt Kenya. NASA are still stuck at 44 percent. In some internal jubilee survey - I have seen Ruto at nearly 70 percent of Kiambaa, Raila and rest at 3-6 percent, and about 20 percent undecided.

So Mt Kenya looks like Ruto at 70 percent; Undecided at 20 percent; and NASA at 10 percent

« Last Edit: August 20, 2021, 08:09:38 AM by RV Pundit »

Offline Nowayhaha

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #37 on: August 20, 2021, 09:03:45 AM »


2 different polls same results.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #38 on: August 20, 2021, 05:33:32 PM »
Final for Grand Mullah nearly 70K sample.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #39 on: August 22, 2021, 01:29:26 PM »
My Rough MOAS 2021 is out.

Ruto to win by 53 percent.

This assuming he picks a Mt Kenya DPORK.
I see Ruto getting slightly more than 70 percent of Kikuyu votes; more than 80 percent of mt kenya east of meru,tharaka and embu.
Elsewhere I have explained the rationale for either getting more votes (like Turkana) or less votes (like Nyamira) than Uhuru.

If  Ruto improves in Mt Kenya - he will go as high as 58 percent - and if he gets any of NASA - he will go above 60 and could even get 2/3 majority if he wins a Kalonzo or MaDVD


Data to be attached.