Kiunjuri-Moses kuria wamekunywa maji

[RV Pundit]

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[Njuri Ncheke]

Bad move with a risk of destroying Rutos support in mlima. Watch this space don't say you weren't told.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto has 50 out 60mps in Mt kenya. If Moses Kuria thinks he can challenge Ruto in Mt kenya - let him try. Uhuru is sweating. And beside who will you sell - Raila . Njuri we have by-election in Meru - pick your wheelbarrow mapema. Or go to Jakom. There are two options now.

Bad move with a risk of destroying Rutos support in mlima. Watch this space don't say you weren't told.

[Njuri Ncheke]

Ruto has 50 out 60mps in Mt kenya. If Moses Kuria thinks he can challenge Ruto in Mt kenya - let him try. Uhuru is sweating. And beside who will you sell - Raila . Njuri we have by-election in Meru - pick your wheelbarrow mapema. Or go to Jakom. There are two options now.

Bad move with a risk of destroying Rutos support in mlima. Watch this space don't say you weren't told.

This bravado will be your downfall. You don't know mlima like us,dont overestimate your punditry. There was no harm in Ruto entering coalition agreements with Kuria and Kiunjuri. The bravado you represent assuming that you know my.kenya is what will shock you.

[RV Pundit]

I am not Ruto. I am a pundit. I only speak the way I see he will see things.Kuna shida moja. How do you propose such coalition talks will happen? You have Ruto with 50mps Mt Kenya...negotiating with one Mp?

Trust me coalition is about Trust:) - no coalition agreement written or unwritten - will ever mean anything - and even if run in different parties - bottomline - it's about you either trust Ruto or not - based on his past behaviour.

Goodwill and trust - I think Ruto is committed to sharing 50-50 with Mt kenya. The rest are details.

Kiunjuri and Kuria had good ideas but UDA has gone nationally - negotiate inside the tent - otherwise survive until April - and Ruto will negotiate one CS for Kiunjuri and one CS for Kuria. Already Gachaguas have Interior. The WaChungwa has Finance. Ndii has nailed the Planning docket. Linturi has minister of Tourism - so he can be visiting lodges and missing his room - with impunity.

This bravado will be your downfall. You don't know mlima like us,dont overestimate your punditry. There was no harm in Ruto entering coalition agreements with Kuria and Kiunjuri. The bravado you represent assuming that you know my.kenya is what will shock you.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

I am not Ruto. I am a pundit. I only speak the way I see he will see things.Kuna shida moja. How do you propose such coalition talks will happen? You have Ruto with 50mps Mt Kenya...negotiating with one Mp?

Trust me coalition is about Trust:) - no coalition agreement written or unwritten - will ever mean anything - and even if run in different parties - bottomline - it's about you either trust Ruto or not - based on his past behaviour.

Goodwill and trust - I think Ruto is committed to sharing 50-50 with Mt kenya. The rest are details.

Kiunjuri and Kuria had good ideas but UDA has gone nationally - negotiate inside the tent - otherwise survive until April - and Ruto will negotiate one CS for Kiunjuri and one CS for Kuria. Already Gachaguas have Interior. The WaChungwa has Finance. Ndii has nailed the Planning docket. Linturi has minister of Tourism - so he can be visiting lodges and missing his room - with impunity.

This bravado will be your downfall. You don't know mlima like us,dont overestimate your punditry. There was no harm in Ruto entering coalition agreements with Kuria and Kiunjuri. The bravado you represent assuming that you know my.kenya is what will shock you.

It is hard to dislodge DP in Mt Kenya because of the grassroots effect. Almost all pastors, elders, opinion shapers, leaders, women groups leaders, and youth groups, besides most politicians, are in his pocket. In 2013-2017 he made a strenuous effort to endear himself to local folks, especially in the mountain; that is why the combined effort of Uhurus, Nginas, Mutahis, Kibichos, and other anti-Ruto brigade are flopping. Besides, Ruto, as non-Kikuyu, has no structural hatred in Kenya outside Luo Nyanza. If there is a Binary Choice between Ruto and Raila at the ballot box, Ruto can afford to lose 50-60% of MT Gema and still win it. Kikuyus in RV under Kihika et al. will put votes in one basket because of the power-sharing plan put in place in Nakuru and beyond. Even in our Uasin Gishu, the Deputy Governor will be a Kikuyu woman to give minority-majority folks ownership of county affairs.

[RV Pundit]

Yes I think such negotiated settlement are way to avoid problems in Africa. Nakuru, Narok, Tranzoia, Uasin gishu, Laikipia - all need such - there just too much at stake - to allow politics of winner-take-it all. Uasin gishu - seem to have been keiyo-nandi deal - without Luhya-Kikuyus in the mix - they need to fix that.

I also agree that Ruto in GEMA is negotiating from strength...because he comes with a huge core of his own...coming with huge non-gema core..looking at his numbers...he can nick now with even 60 percent of GEMA. And if he enters 2022 with clear frontrunner tag - then he can get even more support from non-gema. Raila has is usual bags of tricks - so lets see what he can pull -otherwise looks like old dude is now depending on Uhuru goodwill and state power.

The UDA nomination fallout is the next big headache - and if Kuria-Kiunjuri are smart - they should aim for that. If they were to continue with friendly fire - they will not survive.

It is hard to dislodge DP in Mt Kenya because of the grassroots effect. Almost all pastors, elders, opinion shapers, leaders, women groups leaders, and youth groups, besides most politicians, are in his pocket. In 2013-2017 he made a strenuous effort to endear himself to local folks, especially in the mountain; that is why the combined effort of Uhurus, Nginas, Mutahis, Kibichos, and other anti-Ruto brigade are flopping. Besides, Ruto, as non-Kikuyu, has no structural hatred in Kenya outside Luo Nyanza. If there is a Binary Choice between Ruto and Raila at the ballot box, Ruto can afford to lose 50-60% of MT Gema and still win it. Kikuyus in RV under Kihika et al. will put votes in one basket because of the power-sharing plan put in place in Nakuru and beyond. Even in our Uasin Gishu, the Deputy Governor will be a Kikuyu woman to give minority-majority folks ownership of county affairs.

[RV Pundit]

[Nowayhaha]

Lets be honest with each other. All this so called Punditry is Hogwash.
Ruto is being voted by Mt Kenya simply because of Raila.
If Raila decides to work with him like he did with Uhuru or decides to tosha someone else . Rutos support will disapear like thin air.
Ruto himself know this. But then again Raila and his bunch of advisors are stupid and they need Raila to run so as to win Senator ,Mp and Governor seats and so does Raila want to run to get nomination money.Its very simple so wacheni "kizungu"  mob.

[RV Pundit]

I dont think you've thought about this very well.
If it was just anti-Raila vote; then Ruto would be competing with others for Mt kenya vote; Some will be going to MaDVD or Kalonzo or etc
There is 10yrs of down payment that Ruto has invested in Mt kenya that is paying off.
Other factors are taboo.
But I would definitely talk about

1) Ruto strongly coupling with Mt kenya for 10yrs - including being same party - has bridged a lot of trust issues - and Ruto very strong propaganda, money and hardwork - that is responsible for more than half of the vote.

I estimate this to be about 50-60 percent...core Ruto liwe liwalo support base. This is the UDA group. This hustler nation group.

2) Mostly Kikuyu nationalism - Anti-Raila /Anti-gov - this is the fickle support - that could go anywhere if Uhuru was to abandoned Raila and endorse say maDVD - at best this 25 percent.

This is group Kieleweke/Kuria are competing for - this Kikuyu nationalism group-  protest vote group.

3) Taboo subject - peace dividends  - this mostly an issue for kikuyus in diaspora. This maybe 25 percent.

So looking at Ruto realistically he is about 70-75 percent - and has to work cut out for 25 percent - that could go anywhere - if Raila is removed from the equation.

With Raila in equation and without alternatively - Ruto moves towards 85 percent.  Raila will get 15 percent of GEMA with heavy Gov backing.

If Uhuru drops Raila - then Raila goes back to 2-5 percent - he did well in Meru last time

Lets be honest with each other. All this so called Punditry is Hogwash.
Ruto is being voted by Mt Kenya simply because of Raila.
If Raila decides to work with him like he did with Uhuru or decides to tosha someone else . Rutos support will disapear like thin air.
Ruto himself know this. But then again Raila and his bunch of advisors are stupid and they need Raila to run so as to win Senator ,Mp and Governor seats and so does Raila want to run to get nomination money.Its very simple so wacheni "kizungu"  mob.

[Njuri Ncheke]

3)Taboo subject-peace dividends
Pundit you and your Kalenjin ilk are nothing to make mlima lose sleep over threats of war. Just like Njamba rightly said Uhuru could rig blatantly and there is nothing you will do only thing thats stops him is that he doesn't have the support at all and people genuinely love Ruto. Be careful what you wish for. You fought British in the 1800s we fought him recently in 50s and 60s to give you independence if we decide with your threats we will tosha one of ours and rig elections in your face. Simple.

[RV Pundit]

It an issues definitely for diaspora in RV. The same way my kipsigis people in Narok have to grapple with that. But for you as Meru - it's a non issue. I'd split Meru support to be 75 percent Ruto core - and a floating 25 percent.

It would be a big lie to say all Ruto "love" is purely merited...some of it actually fear. Just like you wife may love you 50 percent...and 50 percent your money. If you lose your money now...50 percent chance she will leave you. That is when you will know her love was not 100 percent.

Some Ruto support in Mt kenya is not just down to anti-Raila - some are in for the money for example - that Ruto is throwing heavily - that support has not come cheap. This is why Ruto had to really steal billions in 1st term - he knew taking on Uhuru or gov would require A LOT of Money.

I am sure if Ruto's PA Farouk Kibet was to reveal how much they have spent - it would be close to 10B Kshs now. So just like you need money in house for love - Ruto has to spend a lot to make GEMA leaders including your local pastor - sing his praises - especially as gov also compete with money, patronage and threats.

Ruto graduated first class from Moi school of Politics. There is a reason he is the guy to beat in 2022. It wont be one factor to make him pork - it would be combination of many factors.  The 1st lesson he learnt from Moi was enormous amount of money required...to survive in politics on a daily basis...if you dont have say 10M daily...to give out...forget about PORK. Leader dont just shout love - you need to almost daily be available for them - and their needs. The same leaders also have wananchi - pressing them with harambees, funerals and name it.

3)Taboo subject-peace dividends
Pundit you and your Kalenjin ilk are nothing to make mlima lose sleep over threats of war. Just like Njamba rightly said Uhuru could rig blatantly and there is nothing you will do only thing thats stops him is that he doesn't have the support at all and people genuinely love Ruto. Be careful what you wish for. You fought British in the 1800s we fought him recently in 50s and 60s to give you independence if we decide with your threats we will tosha one of ours and rig elections in your face. Simple.

[Nowayhaha]

I think one thing you dont appreciate is Ruto is popular because of Raila.
Uhuru shook hands with Raila and his support evaporated.
Just like Uhuru , Ruto is supported because they see as strong person to fight Raila. If Raila decides to lets say support Ruto . Mt Kenya will shift base . They will support a candidate on the other side.
Now on the issue about violence , I told you before Majority of Kikuyus in Rift Valley are in Nakuru. The people evicted in parts of Rift Valley settled in Nakuru . They hold Raila responsible for their eviction. If war was to erupt God forbid. Being the majority in Nakuru it will be disadvantegous for the minority tribes in Nakuru

I dont think you've thought about this very well.
If it was just anti-Raila vote; then Ruto would be competing with others for Mt kenya vote; Some will be going to MaDVD or Kalonzo or etc
There is 10yrs of down payment that Ruto has invested in Mt kenya that is paying off.
Other factors are taboo.
But I would definitely talk about

1) Ruto strongly coupling with Mt kenya for 10yrs - including being same party - has bridged a lot of trust issues - and Ruto very strong propaganda, money and hardwork - that is responsible for more than half of the vote.

I estimate this to be about 50-60 percent...core Ruto liwe liwalo support base. This is the UDA group. This hustler nation group.

2) Mostly Kikuyu nationalism - Anti-Raila /Anti-gov - this is the fickle support - that could go anywhere if Uhuru was to abandoned Raila and endorse say maDVD - at best this 25 percent.

This is group Kieleweke/Kuria are competing for - this Kikuyu nationalism group-  protest vote group.

3) Taboo subject - peace dividends  - this mostly an issue for kikuyus in diaspora. This maybe 25 percent.

So looking at Ruto realistically he is about 70-75 percent - and has to work cut out for 25 percent - that could go anywhere - if Raila is removed from the equation.

With Raila in equation and without alternatively - Ruto moves towards 85 percent.  Raila will get 15 percent of GEMA with heavy Gov backing.

If Uhuru drops Raila - then Raila goes back to 2-5 percent - he did well in Meru last time

Lets be honest with each other. All this so called Punditry is Hogwash.
Ruto is being voted by Mt Kenya simply because of Raila.
If Raila decides to work with him like he did with Uhuru or decides to tosha someone else . Rutos support will disapear like thin air.
Ruto himself know this. But then again Raila and his bunch of advisors are stupid and they need Raila to run so as to win Senator ,Mp and Governor seats and so does Raila want to run to get nomination money.Its very simple so wacheni "kizungu"  mob.

[RV Pundit]

I dont dispute that - anti-Raila group exist - but even if Raila dies today - god forbid - there would still be those supporting Ruto - because Ruto has strongly coupled with GEMA the last 10yrs since 2010.

It's like ODM - even when Raila abuses ODM - it's not easy to dislodge ODM in hearts and minds of some people - because they have gone to war with Raila in so many battles - they have become ODM DAMU - I am talking Non-Luo ODM support base.

So don't engage in lazy thinking. It lazy to claim all in GEMA go to ballot to just vote Anti-Raila way. It's a LOT MORE COMPLEX than that...otherwise if it was just opposing Raila - lot of people would be PORk in kenya after winning Mt kenya. Ruto has a candidate has is own MERIT.

As for taboo subject - I think we dont need gory details - I am on my last warning from ODM Crew here

I think one thing you dont appreciate is Ruto is popular because of Raila.
Uhuru shook hands with Raila and his support evaporated.
Just like Uhuru , Ruto is supported because they see as strong person to fight Raila. If Raila decides to lets say support Ruto . Mt Kenya will shift base . They will support a candidate on the other side.
Now on the issue about violence , I told you before Majority of Kikuyus in Rift Valley are in Nakuru. The people evicted in parts of Rift Valley settled in Nakuru . They hold Raila responsible for their eviction. If war was to erupt God forbid. Being the majority in Nakuru it will be disadvantegous for the minority tribes in Nakuru

[Stockguru]

lol Ruto has Kikuyus. He will die on the hill of mt Kenya vote. The assumption is that Kikuyu voters are so mad with Uhuru they will risk their vote with someone who has community that has being targeting them for eviction for 3 decades. Kikuyus are special idiots we are told. Those makangas and pea brained kikuyu losers making noise now have no sway in how the Kikuyus will vote. August 2022 will the time for reckoning for Kenya. All at sudden Pundit has become a Kikuyu expert. An expert on our own villages and voters. He is Kimenyi wagura.. Kimenyi munene..A know it all pundit. An expert on everything and everyone

[RV Pundit]

[RV Pundit]

Sound like the bleating of a goat. Do you know Ruto actually can win PORK without any kikuyu vote - like Moi managed to get 40 percent in 1997 and 36 percent in 1992 - and won PORK

In fact Ruto Plan C - I think was to go for Luhyas or Kambas - and get 10 percent - after matching Moi's 40 percent small tribe support. Do not think Ruto just sat there waiting for GEMA to betray him (a well earned reputation) like STUPID KALONZO did with Kibaki   - he has been busy since 2013 or even before trying to build back Moi's KANU that Raila took away to ODM.

As of Now Ruto has 10 percent of national support almost to spare - that is like entire Kamba vote. That is the joker to deal with your type and rigging scheme....and that is before ANY COALITION.

Wetangula-Lusaka Bukusu crew have already signed I suspect a coalition agreement...just bidding time until April

I suspect Kalonzo is very desperate for a deal - he has no money for 2022 and kambas are fatigued with losing with same old Raila - and Muthama could deliver him - making Ruto win 2022 by 65 percent - and giving 2/3 majority to ammend the Katiba - and become president for Life - if Supreme court says hakuna basic structure

lol Ruto has Kikuyus. He will die on the hill of mt Kenya vote. The assumption is that Kikuyu voters are so mad with Uhuru they will risk their vote with someone who has community that has being targeting them for eviction for 3 decades. Kikuyus are special idiots we are told. Those makangas and pea brained kikuyu losers making noise now have no sway in how the Kikuyus will vote. August 2022 will the time for reckoning for Kenya. All at sudden Pundit has become a Kikuyu expert. An expert on our own villages and voters. He is Kimenyi wagura.. Kimenyi munene..A know it all pundit. An expert on everything and everyone

[KenyanPlato]

We careless about his plans ours is to stop this evil thief

[RV Pundit]

How do you intend to stop him without zero idea of his plans - Ruto knows all you plans - this is what he learnt from MOi.

If you depend on Mlevi to go against MOi's best ever graduate - a magna summa cum laude - from Moi school of politics - pole SANA.

1) Money - Billions TICK - if Uhuru want to go hammer to hammer - auze shamba ya mamake kwanza - otherwise Ruto took 500M for 5yrs in every gov contract as minimum as Mlevi took 50B from SGR only  - Echeza says he has 100-300B Kshs . This hard cash currency that alarmed Mlevi when he discovered his 50B was NOTHING - and mwizi who has refused to release SGR contracts started waxing lyrical about anti-corruption?  corruption jealousy syndrome - like two thieves - one later discovered the other guy took more

2) Propaganda - Best ever - Ruto oratory skills and ability to turn around any situation is unmatched. He has unleashed the demons of Mau Mau on the Kenyattas. Awoken the class divide in mt Kenya - and is now promising every poor kenya something. You cannot beat that!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - poor people are waiting for money from kenya gov - and you're offering BBI

3) Brilliance - the guy earned Msc and Phd in science while moonlighting at ICC and as acting PORK . He rolls out facts like a savant - and understand complex issues on his feets.

4)  Energy - unmatched - this guy who wakes up 5am - is at office by 6 am - and can crank up until midnight. Doesnt drink anything except Mursik

5) State Machinery - Half Uhuru gov are loyal to RUto - and are leaking secrets to Ruto - foiling many plans.

6) Taboo subject - Backed by peace loving kalenjin.

I think you honestly you should give up and prepare your orifice very well.

This is not Raila or Kalonzo or MaDvD - that you can play games with or toss around - this is MOI reicarnate - Moi with a PHD - that is unbeatable.

We careless about his plans ours is to stop this evil thief

[RV Pundit]

Gideon Moi Standard rag calls the 45 mps - 11mps
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001422603/11-mps-from-mt-kenya-pledge-to-back-rutos-2022-bid