Jubilee economic crimes

[KenyanPlato]

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https://www.theeastafricanreview.info/op-eds/2019/03/18/the-dam-has-broken-time-to-call-jubilee-plunder-what-it-is/

Uhuru and ruto are criminals that belong in jail

[Nefertiti]

Don't rain on Pundit's party of "Kenya is China model" - that  Ruto will leverage with his supreme efficiency and create African Tiger - yet China has no massive foreign debt? I recently challenged him and he went conflation.

[KenyanPlato]

Pundit is 21st century mulu mutysiya or sharrif Nassir

[RV Pundit]

Kenya economy under Jubilee has done well. That is why Jubilee duo were voted with 98% of the vote after winning 54% in first round. Uhuru inherited an economy of about 50B - and in six years - that economy this year will probably hit 100B (10 trillion shs) -98B according to IMF/WB. The economy has been growing at 6%, interest & inflation rate has been very stable and so have other macro-economics. The gov before Raila handshake was smooth machine delivering for kenyans.

Ndii and his NASA nonsense are buried.

Don't rain on Pundit's party of "Kenya is China model" - that  Ruto will leverage with his supreme efficiency and create African Tiger - yet China has no massive foreign debt? I recently challenged him and he went conflation.

[hk]

Jubilee has been a disaster, and the sad thing is we're just entering the worst part. Unwinding the debts, curtailing wanton corruption will take a huge toll on the economy. Reviving the economy will be a tall order. Jubilee is about to become even more unpopular.  For economy to grow from 50b to 100b in 7yrs it means the economy has to average 12.5% gdp growth. The economy hasn't be growing at that rate, one can check kra collection, even with higher taxes, the collection hasn't doubled. It simply means jubilee inherited a bigger economy than previous stated. After rebasing the economy that would be apparent.

[RV Pundit]

When you have strong economic growth averaging 6% plus strong currency against usd; then nominal gdp has no option but reach 100B this year.

As for taxes..in 2013 - KRA collected -759.5B. In 2018 KRA collected 1.5 trillion Kshs. That is about what % of growth again. This year it will probably hit 1.6 trillion (16B)...with total revenues (including AIA) exceeding 20B dollars.

Let us stick to FACTS. Don't play Ndii politics dressed as economics.

When Kibaki was PORK - Gov was collecting 700B in 1yr - now in 5 months ONLY - Jubilee are collecting about the same money.

in the five months from July to December, the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA), the tax-collecting agency, only raised Sh681 billion.

But yes with Raila entering with his confusion - and all the noise - expect the economy to tank to 4% from rest of Jubilee regime. Already so far gov expenditure has grinded to halt as confusion and counter-accusation continues.Now we are going to worry about who get 10% of project money as bribe - instead of executing delivering projects that affect many people.

Instead of building rails, roads, dams, power stations, pipelines and such - we are busy witchhunting and killing projects - that can transform this country - and pay back the '5-10%' bribe money in a year.

Jubilee has been a disaster, and the sad thing is we're just entering the worst part. Unwinding the debts, curtailing wanton corruption will take a huge toll on the economy. Reviving the economy will be a tall order. Jubilee is about to become even more unpopular.  For economy to grow from 50b to 100b in 7yrs it means the economy has to average 12.5% gdp growth. The economy hasn't be growing at that rate, one can check kra collection, even with higher taxes, the collection hasn't doubled. It simply means jubilee inherited a bigger economy than previous stated. After rebasing the economy that would be apparent.

[Kadudu]

Kindly inform us of the goverment debt since 2013.

Kenya economy under Jubilee has done well. That is why Jubilee duo were voted with 98% of the vote after winning 54% in first round. Uhuru inherited an economy of about 50B - and in six years - that economy this year will probably hit 100B (10 trillion shs) -98B according to IMF/WB. The economy has been growing at 6%, interest & inflation rate has been very stable and so have other macro-economics. The gov before Raila handshake was smooth machine delivering for kenyans.

Ndii and his NASA nonsense are buried.

[RV Pundit]

Kindly inform us the gov assets that Kibaki sold - starting from auctioning 25% of Safaricom. That is equal to 2 Eurobond or whole of SGR.

 If Jubilee were to sell the same Safaricom shares now - they'd get 27*10M shares=nearly 6 times kimunya got. That would be about 300B - enough to pay SGR.

Jubilee to it's credit has yet to sell any share in any gov asset.

Kindly inform us of the goverment debt since 2013.

[Nefertiti]

Yawwnnn. I can borrow 1B from the bank - payable at big interest - squander 30% on fashion and liquor - 70% on vanity projects. Bam! am billionaire even at NET BANKRUPTCY.

We know the "projects" are white elephants...

SGR - math don't add up
Dams - contractor is bankrupt and 2 yrs late
Galana - zero returns while folks starve
Elec - more expensive, poor uptake and continued deforestation for firewood / charcoal

[Nefertiti]

So true. The NET is that Kenyan debt + interest is bigger than the ROI. Saying GDP grew on massive debt is idiocy. All the "growth" is public expenditure - physical laying of rail and concrete - not verified returns.

Jubilee has been a disaster, and the sad thing is we're just entering the worst part. Unwinding the debts, curtailing wanton corruption will take a huge toll on the economy. Reviving the economy will be a tall order. Jubilee is about to become even more unpopular.  For economy to grow from 50b to 100b in 7yrs it means the economy has to average 12.5% gdp growth. The economy hasn't be growing at that rate, one can check kra collection, even with higher taxes, the collection hasn't doubled. It simply means jubilee inherited a bigger economy than previous stated. After rebasing the economy that would be apparent.

[RV Pundit]

Kenya economic growth remain broad-based. The macro-economics have never looked this god. You cannot refute the fact that Jubilee will this year possibly cross 100B dollar mark nominal GDP from a revised GDP of 55B. When Jubilee next GDP does it own re-basing - we may discover Jubilee grew the economy by even bigger number. According to treasury if Jubilee stick to their growth plan...by 2023 when Ruto starts...our economy will be 150B dollars...and tax revenues will be around 30B dollars...and our annually budget will probably be 60B dollars.

Obviously the entry of Raila noise into the smooth Jubilee machinery will mean nothing get done. Uhuru has to really guard against that. He was doing fine when Ruto was on the saddle.

If you want to talk about debt...kindly also talk about assets that Jubilee didn't sell and but grew. Kenya Railways is no longer bankrupt...it has 4-5B dollar worth of asset in brand new greenfield railway line.

So true. The NET is that Kenyan debt + interest is bigger than the ROI. Saying GDP grew on massive debt is idiocy. All the "growth" is public expenditure - physical laying of rail and concrete - not verified returns.

[RV Pundit]

Sounds like NASA usual propaganda. SGR is not white elephant - it's kenya biggest investment - delivered on time & cost - and it will eventually pay for itself. It has teething problem like everything else but in fullness of time - this will be Uhuru signature project. Jubilee has earned praises for overseeing one of world fastest electrification. The dam contractor is big international contractor - even here in Uganda - I see they got Jinja-Kampala expressway - all tendering under World Bank. We need to build those dams. Our water situation is very very bad. The same with Kalana...we just need to build a huge dam upstream...and not abandoned that project..under hailstorm of NASA noises and propaganda.

We need to draw the line btw politics and projects that affect everyone.

Yawwnnn. I can borrow 1B from the bank - payable at big interest - squander 30% on fashion and liquor - 70% on vanity projects. Bam! am billionaire even at NET BANKRUPTCY.

We know the "projects" are white elephants...

SGR - math don't add up
Dams - contractor is bankrupt and 2 yrs late
Galana - zero returns while folks starve
Elec - more expensive, poor uptake and continued deforestation for firewood / charcoal

[Nefertiti]

Debt-to-GDP ratio 60%... from 20% Kibaki - it has tripled under Jubilee. In short we have borrowed - read FAKE - growth. The new revenues cannot repay the debt. The borrow-and-build with dismal returns model is a LIE - you simply have poorer folks in a "rich" country.

Kenya economic growth remain broad-based. The macro-economics have never looked this god. You cannot refute the fact that Jubilee will this year possibly cross 100B dollar mark nominal GDP from a revised GDP of 55B. When Jubilee next GDP does it own re-basing - we may discover Jubilee grew the economy by even bigger number. According to treasury if Jubilee stick to their growth plan...by 2023 when Ruto starts...our economy will be 150B dollars...and tax revenues will be around 30B dollars...and our annually budget will probably be 60B dollars.

Obviously the entry of Raila noise into the smooth Jubilee machinery will mean nothing get done. Uhuru has to really guard against that. He was doing fine when Ruto was on the saddle.

If you want to talk about debt...kindly also talk about assets that Jubilee didn't sell and but grew. Kenya Railways is no longer bankrupt...it has 4-5B dollar worth of asset in brand new greenfield railway line.

So true. The NET is that Kenyan debt + interest is bigger than the ROI. Saying GDP grew on massive debt is idiocy. All the "growth" is public expenditure - physical laying of rail and concrete - not verified returns.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit kweli. Economy - like your personal finances - is about cashflow. If you are cashflow positive you are OK no matter the net balance sheet position. Now if you borrow a loan and build say a rental - the rental income should repay the debt otherwise you are a poor investor. Huge chunks of the budget go to repay debt. This is basically what Jubilee has done with the mega projects. When SGR cannot produce running cost let alone hit break even, it is in fact a liability not an asset. I see you are already counting this "asset" under bankrupt Kenya Railway 

Only the free maternity program is a success under Uhuruto which - big surprise - needs no big loan from China. The rest are white elephants - pure waste - Chinaman really laughs at these poor Africans.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit are you saying the dam contractor is not bankrupt? Are they doing a great job? Why are the dams behind schedule?

How is Galana working out?

Electrification is just a buzzword and a poor metric; stima si maji. When power cost goes down, and forest cover grows as folks stop burning trees, then maybe. It's why we have basic investment math - ROI,  IRR before spending.

You are right about politics and projects. If you lay the figures here - and they are real - we have no reason to worry about Raila noises.

[RV Pundit]

Stick to facts.Robina.That Italian company has like 48b dollars worth of projects worldwide.Kenya steal the usual...from all contractors but work get done.Dont throw the baby with bathwater.

[Nefertiti]

No bone to pick

Bloomberg - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-11/europe-s-building-firms-caught-amid-rising-debt-falling-profits

Europe's Building Firms Caught Amid Rising Debt, Falling Profits

Global Capital - https://www.globalcapital.com/article/b1c3fhv5stcqn2/distressed-cmc-ravenna-stokes-hys-italian-fears

Distressed CMC di Ravenna stokes HY's Italian fears

By Victor Jimenez
04 Dec 2018

CMC Ravenna opened the path to debt restructuring under Italian insolvency law at a court in its home city, Ravenna, choosing "the most effective process in order to secure company's assets and protect , in this way, all the stakeholders", it said in a statement on Tuesday.

Moody's - https://www.ademcetinkaya.com/2018/12/italy-based-cmc-di-ravenna-downgraded.html

Italy-based CMC di Ravenna downgraded to 'D'

Summary
>CMC di Ravenna (CMC) has announced that, on Dec. 4, 2018, it would apply
in court for a preventive composition with creditors "with reservation."

>We consider CMC's current situation to be tantamount to default because
the application foresees the suspension of payments related to
outstanding obligations.

>We are lowering our long-term ratings on CMC to 'D' from 'CC'.

>The ratings will remain at 'D' until payments resume according to the
terms of the notes or the financial obligations have been restructured.

Stick to facts.Robina.That Italian company has like 48b dollars worth of projects worldwide.Kenya steal the usual...from all contractors but work get done.Dont throw the baby with bathwater.

[RV Pundit]

What is your point. You wanted Kenya Gov to predict that a big international contractor like that would be bitting dust the following year. I mean private sector never anticipated that Nakumatt would sink with 20-40b of their money. Or Chase bank customers would wake up one morning to find their bank is no more.

This is the nature of business.

The best way forward now is to re-negoitate with them - with view of having them handover the remaining work to China - and the insurer of the money to pay back.

Going forward we just need to give every serious contract to Chinese. I wish this could be made a law.

No bone to pick

Bloomberg - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-11/europe-s-building-firms-caught-amid-rising-debt-falling-profits

Europe's Building Firms Caught Amid Rising Debt, Falling Profits

Global Capital - https://www.globalcapital.com/article/b1c3fhv5stcqn2/distressed-cmc-ravenna-stokes-hys-italian-fears

Distressed CMC di Ravenna stokes HY's Italian fears

By Victor Jimenez
04 Dec 2018

CMC Ravenna opened the path to debt restructuring under Italian insolvency law at a court in its home city, Ravenna, choosing "the most effective process in order to secure company's assets and protect , in this way, all the stakeholders", it said in a statement on Tuesday.

Moody's - https://www.ademcetinkaya.com/2018/12/italy-based-cmc-di-ravenna-downgraded.html

Italy-based CMC di Ravenna downgraded to 'D'

Summary
>CMC di Ravenna (CMC) has announced that, on Dec. 4, 2018, it would apply
in court for a preventive composition with creditors "with reservation."

>We consider CMC's current situation to be tantamount to default because
the application foresees the suspension of payments related to
outstanding obligations.

>We are lowering our long-term ratings on CMC to 'D' from 'CC'.

>The ratings will remain at 'D' until payments resume according to the
terms of the notes or the financial obligations have been restructured.

Stick to facts.Robina.That Italian company has like 48b dollars worth of projects worldwide.Kenya steal the usual...from all contractors but work get done.Dont throw the baby with bathwater.

[Nefertiti]

My point is there is no Jubilee project completed with a positive return yet. All we have for sure is a massive debt. The rest are details.

[RV Pundit]

Irrelevant NASA propaganda that is far from OBJECTIVE.

 Jubilee if they had done nothing won't have won by 55% and nearly 200mps. Jubilee has done a good job - they slashed child mortality by half I think - among many other great achievements. They are now embarking on universal health care.

Look at Ease of Doing Business - from highs of 100s - we are now nearly at 50! Only Rwanda and Mauritus are better than us in Sub-Saharan Africa.

For more projects...

https://www.delivery.go.ke/

My point is there is no Jubilee project completed with a positive return yet. All we have for sure is a massive debt. The rest are details.